Stratum-specific Likelihood Ratio Research Articles

Preoperative Nutrition Impacts Retear Rate After Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repair.

A rotator cuff retear following arthroscopic rotator cuff repair (ARCR) is a concern in older patients. However, only a few of its risk factors are amenable to preoperative intervention. We aimed to elucidate the relationship between preoperative nutritional status and rotator cuff retears after ARCR. This single-center retrospective study included patients aged ≥65 years with rotator cuff tears who underwent ARCR. The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) was used to assess preoperative nutritional status. Data collection encompassed patient demographics, clinical assessments, and surgical specifics. Patients were divided into healed and retear groups based on 2-year post-ARCR magnetic resonance imaging results. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to adjust for confounding factors and detect independent risk factors for retears. The GNRI cutoff value for retear prediction was determined by a stratum-specific likelihood ratio; clinical outcomes were compared based on the cutoff values obtained. Overall, 143 patients were included. The retear rate was 20.3%. The albumin level, GNRI, postoperative shoulder strength of abduction and external rotation, and postoperative Japanese Orthopaedic Association and Constant scores in the retear group were significantly lower than those in the healed group. The logistic regression analysis showed that low risk of morbidity and mortality (compared with no risk) based on the GNRI (odds ratio [OR], 3.39) and medial-lateral tear size per mm (OR = 1.10) were independent risk factors for a retear 2 years after ARCR. Stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis identified data-driven strata as GNRI < 103, 103 ≤ GNRI < 109, and GNRI ≥ 109. Univariate analysis showed that patients with GNRI < 103 had a significantly higher retear risk than those with 103 ≤ GNRI < 109 and those with GNRI ≥ 109. Logistic regression analysis showed that GNRI < 103 compared with 103 ≤ GNRI < 109 (OR = 3.88) and GNRI < 103 compared with GNRI ≥ 109 (OR = 5.62), along with the medial-lateral tear size per mm (OR = 1.10), were independent risk factors for a retear at 2 years after ARCR. When assessing the risk of a retear after ARCR, GNRI ≥ 103 may indicate good preoperative nutritional status. However, more data are essential to ascertain the importance of this finding. Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Identification of Data-Driven Preoperative Hemoglobin Strata That Predict the Likelihood of Blood Transfusion and the Risk of Major Complications and Prosthetic Joint Infection After Total Hip Arthroplasty.

Preoperative anemia is an independent risk factor of complications after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). Currently used hemoglobin thresholds are not developed for risk stratification of arthroplasty patients and do not provide surgery-specific information on postoperative complication risk. Thus, we aimed to calculate THA-specific preoperative hemoglobin strata that observe the likelihood of 90-day blood transfusion and determine whether these strata are associated with increased risk of 90-day complications and 2-year prosthetic joint infection (PJI). A retrospective cohort analysis identified 56,101 patients who underwent primary THA from 2013 to 2022. Using the lowest hemoglobin value for each patient one month before THA, stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis calculated sex-based hemoglobin strata associated with the likelihood of 90-day postoperative blood transfusion. Propensity score matching was performed. Incidence rates and risk of 90-day major complications and 2-year PJI were observed for each identified preoperative hemoglobin stratum. SSLR analysis identified five male (strata, likelihood ratio [<10.4 g/dL, 12.5; 10.5 to 11.4 g/dL, 8.0; 11.5 to 12.4 g/dL, 2.4; 12.5 to 13.4 g/dL, 1.3; 13.5 to 13.9 g/dL, 0.5]) and five female (<8.9 g/dL, 10.7; 9.0 to 10.9 g/dL, 4.0; 11.0 to 11.4 g/dL, 2.0; 12.0 to 12.9 g/dL, 1.0; 13.0 to 13.4 g/dL, 0.6) preoperative hemoglobin strata associated with varying likelihoods of 90-day blood transfusion after THA. After matching in both male and female cohorts, as the calculated preoperative hemoglobin strata decreased, the relative risk of overall 90-day major complications and 2-year PJI increased incrementally (all P < 0.05). SSLR analysis established THA-specific sex-based preoperative hemoglobin strata that observe the likelihood of 90-day blood transfusion and predict the risk of 90-day medical complications and 2-year PJI. These strata are a first of their kind in THA research. While preoperatively optimizing patients, we recommend using these hemoglobin thresholds to help guide decisions on presurgery anemia optimization and to reduce the need for postoperative blood transfusion. Level III.

The Effect of Varying Preoperative Hemoglobin Levels on the Risk of Major Complications and Surgical Site Infections After Single Level Lumbar Fusion.

Blood transfusions are associated with an increased risk of complications after lumbar fusion, and current anemia hemoglobin thresholds are not surgery specific. We aimed to calculate single-level lumbar fusion-specific preoperative hemoglobin strata that observe the likelihood of 90-day transfusion and evaluate whether these strata are associated with increased risk of 90-day complications and 2-year infections. A national database identified patients undergoing primary single-level lumbar fusion with preoperative hemoglobin values (g/dL). Stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis calculated sex-based hemoglobin strata associated with the risk of 90-day transfusion. Incidence and risk of 90-day major complications and 2-year infections were observed between strata. Three female (hemoglobin strata, likelihood ratio [<10.9, 2.41; 11.0 to 12.4, 1.35; 12.5 to 17.0, 0.78]) and male (<11.9, 2.95; 12.0 to 13.4, 1.46; 13.5 to 13.9, 0.71) strata were associated with varying likelihood of 90-day blood transfusion. Increased 90-day complication risk was associated with two female strata (hemoglobin strata, relative risk [11.0 to 12.4, 1.52; <10.9, 3.40]) and one male stratum (<11.9, 2.02). Increased 2-year infection risk was associated with one female (<10.9, 3.67) and male stratum (<11.9, 2.11). Stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis established sex-based single-level lumbar fusion-specific hemoglobin strata that observe the likelihood of 90-day transfusion and the risk of 90-day major complications and 2-year infections. These thresholds are a unique addition to the literature and can assist in counseling patients on their postoperative risk profile and in preoperative patient optimization. Level III.

Body Mass Index Greater Than 46 Associated With Increased Risk of 30 Day Complications Following Adult Tonsillectomy: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: The study aimed to identify data-driven body mass index (BMI) thresholds that are associated with varying risk of 30 day complications following adult tonsillectomy. Methods: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database was utilized to conduct a retrospective cohort analysis of patients undergoing adult tonsillectomy from 2005 to 2019. Stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis was conducted to determine data-driven BMI strata that maximized the likelihood of 30 day complications following adult tonsillectomy. Patient demographics and clinical comorbidities were compared using chi-squared analysis and student t tests, where appropriate, for each stratum. Multivariable regression analysis was conducted to confirm association between identified data-driven strata with 30 day complication rates. Results: In total, 44,161 patients undergoing adult tonsillectomy were included in this study. SSLR analysis identified 2 BMI categories: 18 to 45 and 46+. Relative to the 18 to 45 BMI cohort, the 46+ BMI cohort was more likely to have 30 day all-cause complications after surgery [odds ratio (OR): 1.62, P = .007]. Specifically, the 46+ BMI cohort had significantly higher odds for 30 day major medical complications (OR: 2.86, P = .001), pulmonary domain complications (OR: 1.86, P = .041), unplanned reintubation (OR: 2.65, P = .033), and deep vein thrombosis (OR: 6.54, P = .026). Conclusions: We identified a BMI threshold of 46+ that was associated with a significantly increased risk of 30 day all-cause complications following adult tonsillectomy. These BMI strata can guide preoperative planning and risk-stratifying models for predicting 30 day complications in tonsillectomy surgery.

Evaluating the Effect of Decreasing Preoperative Hemoglobin on Blood Transfusions, Major Complications, and Periprosthetic Joint Infection After Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Preoperative anemia is associated with increased postoperative transfusion and complication rates after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We aimed to create TKA-specific data-driven preoperative hemoglobin strata that quantify the likelihood of 90-day postoperative blood transfusion and evaluate whether these strata are associated with increased risk of 90-day major complications and 2-year prosthetic joint infection (PJI). Primary TKA patients from 2013 to 2022 were identified using a national database. Stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis defined hemoglobin strata associated with the risk of 90-day blood transfusion. Each stratum was propensity score matched to the highest identified hemoglobin strata. Unmatched incidence rates and matched risk of 90-day major complications and 2-year PJI between strata were compared. SSLR identified four 90-day blood transfusion hemoglobin strata for men (strata [g/dL], likelihood ratio [<11.4, 8.06; 11.5 to 11.9, 4.34; 12.0 to 12.9, 1.70; 13.0 to 17.0, 0.54]) and women (<10.4, 8.22; 10.5 to 11.4, 2.84; 11.5 to 12.4, 1.38; 12.5 to 17.0, 0.50). Increased 2-year PJI risk was associated with three male strata (<11.4, 11.5 to 11.9, 12.0 to 12.9; all P < 0.001) and three female strata (<10.4, 10.5 to 11.4, 11.5 to 12.4; all P < 0.001). Increased 90-day major complication risk was associated with three male strata (<11.4, 11.5 to 11.9, 12.0 to 12.9; all P < 0.001) and three female strata (<10.4, 10.5 to 11.4, 11.5 to 12.4; all P < 0.001). Using SSLR analysis, we identified unique TKA-specific data-driven hemoglobin strata for both men and women that quantify the likelihood of 90-day blood transfusions and predict the risk of both 90-day major complications and 2-year PJI. These strata are a first in the TKA literature and can assist surgeons in stratifying patients' transfusion and complication risk based on their preoperative hemoglobin value. While optimizing patients in the preoperative setting, we recommend using these TKA-specific hemoglobin thresholds to help guide decision making on the need for presurgery anemia optimization and to help reduce the need for blood transfusion.

Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty within 6 weeks of proximal humerus fracture is associated with the lowest risk of revision

Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA) has become an increasingly popular treatment strategy in the management of complex proximal humeral fractures (PHF). However, no definitive consensus has been reached regarding the optimal surgical timing of RTSA following PHF, particularly considering nonoperative management is often a viable option. Therefore, the aim of this study was (1) to identify optimal timing intervals that maximize the likelihood of revision following RTSA and (2) to determine differences in revision etiologies using the identified timing intervals. A retrospective cohort analysis of patients undergoing PHF-indicated RTSA from 2010 to 2021 was conducted using a national administrative claims database. Stratum specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis was conducted to determine data-driven timing strata between PHF and RTSA that maximized the likelihood of revision surgery within 2-years of RTSA. To control for confounders, multivariable regression analysis was conducted to confirm the identified data-driven strata's association with 2-year revision rates as well as compare the likelihood of various indications for revision including mechanical loosening, dislocation, periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), and periprosthetic fracture (PPF). In total, 11,707 patients undergoing TSA following PHF were included in this study. SSLR analysis identified two timing categories: 0-6 weeks and 7-52 weeks from the time of PHF to TSA surgery. Relative to the 0-6 week cohort, the 7-52 week cohort was more likely to undergo revision surgery within 2-years (OR: 1.93, P < 0.001). Moreover, the 7-52 week cohort had significantly higher odds of revision indicated for dislocation (OR: 2.24, P < 0.001), mechanical loosening (OR: 1.71, P < 0.001), PJI (OR: 1.74, P < 0.001), and PPF (OR: 1.96, P < 0.001). Using SSLR, we were successful in identifying two data-driven timing strata between PHF and RTSA that maximized the likelihood of 2-year revision surgery. As it can be difficult to determine whether RTSA or nonoperative management is initially more appropriate, considering the results of this study, an early trial of 4 to 6 weeks of nonoperative management may be appropriate without altering the risks associated with RTSA.

509 Data-Driven Preoperative Hemoglobin Strata that Maximize the Likelihood of Blood Transfusion following Single-Level Lumbar Fusion Are Also Predictive of Major Complications and Deep Infections

INTRODUCTION: Optimizing patients undergoing single-level lumbar spine fusion helps reduce the use of blood transfusions which are associated with an increased risk of major complications and deep infection. Current hemoglobin thresholds for anemia severity were published in 1968 and are not surgery specific. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis was performed using a national database to identify patients undergoing primary single-level lumbar fusion with recorded hemoglobin values 30 days before surgery. Stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis defined sex-based hemoglobin strata associated with the risk of 90-day postoperative blood transfusion. Each stratum was propensity-score matched to the highest identified hemoglobin stratum. Incidence rates and risk of 90-day major complications and 2-year deep infection between strata were observed. RESULTS: For 90-day blood transfusion, SSLR identified three female [Strata, Likelihood ratio (5.0-10.9, 2.41; 11.0-12.4, 1.35; 12.5-17.0, 0.78)] and three male hemoglobin strata (5.0-11.9, 2.95; 12.0-13.4, 1.46; 13.5-13.9, 0.71). Increased risk of 90-day major complications was associated with two female (11.0-12.4 [RR: 1.52; p &lt; 0.001], 5.0-10.9 [RR: 3.40; p &lt; 0.001]) and one male stratum (5.0-11.9 [RR: 2.02; p &lt; 0.001]). Increased risk of 2-year deep infection was associated with one female (5.0-10.9 [RR: 3.67; p &lt; 0.001]) and one male stratum (5.0-11.9 [RR: 2.11; p = 0.005]). CONCLUSIONS: SSLR analysis established single-level lumbar fusion-specific hemoglobin strata that maximize the likelihood of 90-day blood transfusions and predict the risk of 90-day major complication and 2-year deep infection. We recommend using these thresholds during preoperative optimization, noting the sequential increase in risk of complications starting with a hemoglobin of less than 13.5 in males and 12.5 in females.

Using the Stratum-Specific Likelihood Ratio Method to Derive Outcome-Based Hospital Volume Categories for Total Knee Replacement.

Evidence of higher hospital volume being associated with improved outcomes for patients undergoing total knee replacement (TKR) is mostly based on arbitrary distribution-based thresholds. We aimed to define outcome-based volume thresholds using data from a national database. We used the MedPAR Limited Data Set inpatient data from 2010-2015 to identify patients who had undergone primary TKR. Surgical and TKR specific complications occurring within the index hospitalization and all-cause readmission within 90 days were considered adverse events. We derived an average annual TKR case volume for each hospital and applied the stratum-specific likelihood ratio method to determine volume categories indicative of a similar likelihood of 90-day post-operative complications. Hierarchical multivariable logistic regression with a random intercept for hospital nested within study year and adjusted for patient and hospital characteristics was performed to determine if these volume thresholds were still associated with the odds of 90-day readmission for complications after adjustment. SSLR analysis yielded 4 hospital volume categories based on the likelihood of 90-day postoperative complications: 1-31 (low), 32-127 (medium), 128-248 (high), and 429+ (very high) TKRs performed per year. The results of the hierarchical multivariable logistic regression showed significantly increased odds of 90-day complications at lower volume categories. Sensitivity analyses confirmed our main findings. This study is the first to provide national-level volume categories that are evidence-based. Publicizing these thresholds may enhance quality measures available to patients, providers, and payors.

Data-driven body mass index threshold associated with increased risk of 2-year periprosthetic joint infection following total shoulder arthroplasty

Body mass index (BMI) is a modifiable risk factor for medical and infectious complications following total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA). Previous studies investigating BMI were limited to the conventional classification system, which may be outdated for modern day patients. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify BMI thresholds that are associated with varying risk of 90-day medical complications and 2-year prosthetic joint infection (PJI) following TSA. A national database was utilized to identify 10,901 patients who underwent primary elective TSA from 2013 to 2022. Patients were only included if they had a BMI value recorded within 1 month prior to TSA. Separate stratum-specific likelihood ratio analyses, an adaptive technique to identify data-driven thresholds, were performed to determine data-driven BMI strata associated with varying risk of 90-day medical complications and 2-year PJI. The incidence rates of these complications were recorded for each stratum. To control for confounders, each BMI strata was propensity-score matched based on age, sex, hypertension, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes mellitus to the lowest identified BMI strata for both outcomes of interest. The risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were recorded for each matched analysis. The average age and BMI of patients was 70.5years (standard deviation ±9.8) and 30.7 (standard deviation±6.2), respectively. Stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis identified two BMI strata associated with differences in the rate of 2-year PJI: 19-39 and 40+. The same strata were identified for 90-day major complications. When compared to the matched BMI 19-39 cohort, the risk of 2-year PJI was higher in the BMI 40+ cohort (RR: 2.7; 95% CI 1.39-5.29; P=.020). After matching, there was no significant difference in the risk of 90-day major complications between identified strata (RR: 1.19, 95% CI: 0.86-1.64; P=.288). A data-driven BMI threshold of 40 was associated with a significantly increased risk of 2-year PJI following TSA. This is the first TSA study to observe BMI on a continuum and observe at what point BMI is associated with increased risk of 2-year PJI following TSA. Our identified BMI strata can be incorporated into risk-stratifying models for predicting both PJI and 90-day major complications to minimize both.

The Creation of Data-Driven Preoperative Hemoglobin A1c and Same-Day Glucose Strata to Stratify Complication Risk Following Total Hip Arthroplasty

BackgroundThis study identifies data-driven strata for preoperative Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and same-day glucose levels that maximize differences in the likelihood of complications following total hip arthroplasty (THA). MethodsPatients who underwent THA from 2013 to 2022 were identified using a national database. In total, 18,728 patients were identified with a mean age of 67 years (range, 18 to 80). Stratum specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis determined separate strata for HbA1c and same-day glucose levels that minimized the likelihood of 90-day complications following THA. Each stratum was propensity-score matched based on age, sex, hypertension, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and obesity to the lowest respective stratum. The risk ratio (RR) with respect to the lowest matched stratum was observed. ResultsOur SSLR analysis identified 3 data-driven HbA1c strata (4.5 to 5.9, 6.0 to 6.9, and 7.0+) and two same-day glucose strata (60 to 189 and 190+) that predicted 90-day major complications. For HbA1c, when compared to the lowest strata (4.5 to 5.9), the risk of 90-day major complications sequentially increased as the HbA1c strata increased: 6.0 to 6.9 (RR: 1.21; P = .041), 7+ (RR: 1.82; P < .001). For same-day glucose, when compared to the matched lowest strata (60 to 189), the risk of 90-day major complications was higher for the 190+ strata (RR: 1.5; P < .001). ConclusionsOur results support the use of multiple HbA1c strata that can be incorporated into preoperative risk-stratification models. Additionally, we identified a single cut-off level of 190 as a maximum target blood glucose level perioperatively.

Impact of Surgeon Case Volume on Outcomes After Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty.

Despite a rapid increase in utilization of reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (rTSA), volume-outcome studies focusing on surgeon volume are lacking. Surgeon-specific volume-outcome studies may inform policymakers and provide insight into learning curves and measures of efficiency with greater case volume. This retrospective cohort study with longitudinal data included all rTSA cases as recorded in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Limited Data Set (2016 to 2018). The main effect was surgeon volume; this was categorized using two measures of surgeon volume: (1) rTSA case volume and (2) rTSA + TSA case volume. Volume cutoff values were calculated by applying a stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis. Among 90,318 rTSA cases performed by 7,097 surgeons, we found a mean annual rTSA surgeon volume of 6 ± 10 and a mean rTSA + TSA volume of 9 ± 14. Regression models using surgeon-specific rTSA volume revealed that surgery from low (<29 cases) compared with medium (29 to 96 cases) rTSA-volume surgeons was associated with a significantly higher 90-day all-cause readmission (odds ratio [OR], 1.17; confidence interval [CI], 1.10 to 1.25; P < 0.0001), higher 90-day readmission rates because of an infection (OR, 1.46; CI, 1.16 to 1.83; P = 0.0013) or dislocation (OR, 1.43; CI, 1.19 to 1.72; P = 0.0001), increased 90-day postoperative cost (+11.3% CI, 4.2% to 19.0%; P = 0.0016), and a higher transfusion rate (OR, 2.06; CI, 1.70 to 2.50; P < 0.0001). Similar patterns existed when using categorizations based on rTSA + TSA case volume. Surgeon-specific volume-outcome relationships exist in this rTSA cohort, and we were able to identify thresholds that may identify low and medium/high volume surgeons. Observed volume-outcome relationships were independent of the definition of surgeon volume applied: either by focusing on the number of rTSAs performed per surgeon or anatomic TSAs performed. III.

Sarcopenia as a Risk Factor for Complications Following Pedicle Subtraction Osteotomy.

Retrospective cohort. The objective was to determine if sarcopenia is an independent risk factor for complications in adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients undergoing pedicle subtraction osteotomy (PSO) and define categories of complication risk by sarcopenia severity. Sarcopenia is linked to morbidity and mortality in several orthopedic procedures. Data concerning sarcopenia in ASD surgery is limited, particularly with respect to complex techniques performed such as PSO. With the high surgical burden of PSOs, appropriate patient selection is critical for minimizing complications. We identified 73 ASD patients with lumbar CT/MRI scans who underwent PSO with spinal fusion ≥5 levels at a tertiary care center from 2005 to 2014. Sarcopenia was assessed by the psoas-lumbar vertebral index (PLVI). Using stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis, patients were separated into 3 sarcopenia groups by complication risk. The primary outcome measure was any 2-year complication. Secondary outcome measures included intraoperative blood loss and length of stay. The mean PLVI was 0.84±0.28, with 47% of patients having complications. Patients with a complication had a 27% lower PLVI on average than those without complications (0.76 vs. 0.91, P=0.021). Stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis produced 3 complication categories: 32% complication rate for PLVI ≥ 0.81; 61% for PLVI 0.60-0.80; and 69% for PLVI < 0.60. Relative to patients with PLVI ≥ 0.81, those with PLVI 0.60-0.80 and PLVI < 0.60 had 3.2× and 4.3× greater odds of developing a complication (P<0.05). For individual complications, patients with PLVI < 1.0 had a significantly higher risk of proximal junctional kyphosis (34% vs. 0%, P=0.022), while patients with PLVI < 0.8 had a significantly higher risk of wound infection (12% vs. 0%, P=0.028) and dural tear (14% vs. 0%, P=0.019). There were no significant associations between sarcopenia, intraoperative blood loss, and length of stay. The increasing severity of sarcopenia is associated with a significantly and incrementally increased risk of complications following ASD surgery that require PSO. Level III.

A Novel Method for Stratification of 30-Day Major Complication Risk Using Body Mass Index Thresholds for Patients Undergoing Total Knee Arthroplasty: A National Cohort of 443,157 Patients

BackgroundMany organizations have used pre-established body mass index (BMI) cut-offs to guide surgical decision-making. As there have been many improvements in patient optimization, surgical technique, and perioperative care over time, it is important to reassess these thresholds and contextualize them to total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study was to calculate data-driven BMI thresholds that predict significant differences in risk of 30-day major complications following TKA. MethodsPatients who underwent primary TKA from 2010 to 2020 were identified in a national database. Stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) methodology was used to determine data-driven BMI thresholds at which the risk of 30-day major complications increased significantly. These BMI thresholds were tested using multivariable logistic regression analyses. A total of 443,157 patients were included, who had a mean age of 67 years (range, 18 to 89 years), mean BMI of 33 (range 19 to 59), and 11,766 (2.7%) patients had a 30-day major complication. ResultsSSLR analysis identified four BMI thresholds that were associated with significant differences in 30-day major complications: 19 to 33, 34 to 38, 39 to 50, and 51+. When compared to those who had a BMI between 19 and 33, the odds of sustaining a major complication sequentially and significantly increased by 1.1, 1.3, and 2.1 times (P < .05 for all) for the other thresholds. ConclusionThis study identified four data-driven BMI strata using SSLR analysis that were associated with significant differences in the risk of 30-day major complications following TKA. These strata can be used to guide shared decision-making in patients undergoing TKA.

Delay of Timing of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction Is Associated With Lower Risk of Arthrofibrosis Requiring Intervention

To conduct 2 separate stratum-specific likelihood ratio analyses in patients younger than 40 year of age (<40 years) and those aged 40 and older (40+ years) at time of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction to define data-driven strata between ACL tear and primary isolated ACL reconstruction in which the risk of arthrofibrosis, using manipulation under anesthesia and arthroscopic lysis of adhesions as surrogates, is significantly different. A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted using the PearlDiver Database. Patients who underwent ACL reconstruction were identified using the Current Procedure Terminology code 29888. Patients were stratified to those aged younger than 40 (<40) and those 40 and older (40+) at time of ACL reconstruction. The incidence of 2-year arthrofibrosis was calculated for weekly intervals from initial ACL injury to reconstruction. Stratum specific likelihood ratio analysis was conducted to determine data-driven intervals from initial ACL tear to reconstruction that optimize differences in 2-year arthrofibrosis. Following the identification of these intervals for both those <40 and 40+, multivariable analysis was conducted. For those <40, stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis identified only 2 data-driven timing strata: 0-5 and 6-26 weeks. For those 40+, stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis also only identified 2 data-driven strata: 0-9 and 10-26 weeks. A delay in ACL reconstruction from initial injury by at least 6 weeks in patients younger than 40 and at least 10 weeks in patients older than 40 years is associated with a 65% and 35% reduction of 2-year manipulation under anesthesia and arthroscopic lysis of adhesions, respectively. Our analysis showed a delay in ACLR of at least 6 weeks in patients younger than 40 years to be associated with a 65% reduction in the risk of surgical intervention for arthrofibrosis and a delay of at least 10 weeks in patients 40 years and older to be associated with only a 35% reduction in the risk of surgical intervention for arthrofibrosis. The authors propose this difference in reduction to be multifactorial and potentially associated with mechanism of injury, activity level, and preoperative factors such as amount of physical therapy, rather than solely timing. Level III, retrospective comparative prognostic study.

Interval Time of at Least 6 Weeks Between Bilateral Total Knee Arthroplasties is Associated With Decreased Postoperative Complications

BackgroundStaged, bilateral total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has an increased risk of complications if the second procedure is performed before physiologic recovery from the first. The aims of this study were to 1) determine whether there is a time-dependent relationship between TKA staging and rates of revisions and complications and 2) identify data-driven time intervals that reduce risk of revisions and complications. MethodsData were collected from a national insurance database from 2015 to 2018. Staged intervals were initially assessed using fixed 6-week intervals. Stratum-specific likelihood ratio analyses were subsequently conducted to observe data-driven staging thresholds. Bivariate and multivariable regression analyses were conducted to determine the associations between the time intervals and 2-year rates of revision surgery and 90-day major complications. We included 25,527 patients undergoing staged bilateral TKA. ResultsIn comparison to the shortest fixed time interval (1-6 weeks), as the staging interval increased the odds of 2-year all-cause revision and 90-day major complications significantly decreased (P < .05 for all). Stratum-specific likelihood ratio analysis identified 3 data-driven staging categories 1-5, 6-17, and 18-24 weeks that maximized the difference in both 2-year rates of revision and 90-day major complications. ConclusionOur data showed a time-dependent relationship between the timing of TKA stages and complications. If staging is considered, a delayed interval of at least 6 weeks between procedures may significantly reduce revision and major complications. Level of EvidenceLevel III Therapeutic Study.

Severity of frailty using modified Thai frailty index, social factors, and prediction of mortality among community-dwelling older adults in a middle-income country.

Frailty has been increasingly recognized as a public health problem for aging populations with significant social impact, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to develop a modified version of the Thai Frailty Index (TFI) and explore the association between different frailty statuses, socioeconomic factors, and mortality in community-dwelling older people from a middle-income country. The data from participants aged ≥60 years in the Fourth Thai National Health Examination Survey were used to construct the 30-item TFI. Cutoff points were created based on stratum-specific likelihood ratio. TFI ≤ 0.10 was categorized as fit, 0.10-0.25 as pre-frail, 0.25-0.45 as mildly frail, and >0.45 as severely frail. The association of frailty status with mortality was examined using Cox proportional hazard models. Among 8,195 older adults with a mean age of 69.2 years, 1,284 died during the 7-year follow-up. The prevalence of frailty was 16.6%. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for mortality in pre-frail was 1.76 (95% CI = 1.50-2.07), mildly frail 2.79 (95% CI = 2.33-3.35), and severely frail 6.34 (95% CI = 4.60-8.73). Having a caretaker in the same household alleviated mortality risk for severely frail participants with an aHR of 2.93 (95% CI = 1.92-4.46) compared with an aHR of 6.89 (95% CI = 3.87-12.26) among those living without a caretaker. The severity of frailty classified by the modified TFI can predict long-term mortality risk for community-dwelling older adults. Identification of severely frail older people to provide appropriate care might alleviate mortality risk. Our findings can inform policymakers to appropriately allocate services in a resource-limited setting.

204. The ALFA score predicts 30-day mortality after elective anterior lumbar interbody fusion

204. The ALFA score predicts 30-day mortality after elective anterior lumbar interbody fusion

A Novel Method for Stratification of Major Complication Risk Using Body Mass Index Thresholds for Patients Undergoing Total Hip Arthroplasty: A National Cohort of 224,413 Patients

IntroductionElevated body mass index (BMI) is associated with complications following Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA). Since obese individuals are almost 10 times more likely to require THA compared to non-obese individuals, we need to understand the risk-benefit continuum while considering THA in obese patients. We aimed to determine data-driven thresholds for BMI at which the risk of major complications following THA increases significantly. MethodsPatients were identified in a national database who underwent primary THA from 2010 to 2020. BMI thresholds were identified using the stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) methodology, which is an adaptive technique that allows for identification of BMI cut-offs, at which the risk of major complications is increased significantly . BMI cutoffs identified using SSLR were used to create a logistic regression model. ResultsA total of 224,413 patients were identified with a mean age of 66 ± 10, BMI 32 ± 6.7, and 7,186 (3%) sustained a major complication. BMI thresholds were defined as 19-31, 32-37, 38-49 and 50+. Overall, the absolute risk of major complications increased from 2.9% in the lowest BMI strata to 7.5% in the highest BMI strata. Compared to patients with a BMI between 19-31, the odds of sustaining a major complication sequentially increased by 1.2, 1.6, and 2.5-times for patients in each higher BMI strata (all, P < .05). ConclusionsWe have identified BMI cutoffs using SSLR that categorizes patients into four categories of risk for major complications in a nationally representative patient sample. These thresholds can be used in the surgical decision-making process between patients and surgeons.

Assessing the hospital volume-outcome relationship in total elbow arthroplasty.

Total elbow arthroplasty (TEA) is an effective intervention for multiple elbow disorders including complex fracture in elderly patients, post-traumatic arthropathy, inflammatory arthropathy, and distal humeral nonunion. Given its known therapeutic value and low utilization rate, an investigation into the thresholds for TEA institutional volume-outcome relationships is warranted. The purpose of this study was to identify TEA volume thresholds that serve as predictors of institutional outcomes including complications, readmissions, revisions, cost of care, length of stay (LOS), and non-home discharge. We hypothesized that increased institutional volume would be associated with decreased 90-day adverse outcomes and resource utilization. The Nationwide Readmission Database was queried from 2010 to 2017 to identify all cases of TEA. Hospital volume was calculated using a unique hospital identifier and divided into quartiles. Outcomes such as complications, readmissions, revisions, cost of care, LOS, and non-home discharge were then analyzed by quartile. The same outcomes were assessed via stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis to define volume strata among institutions. SSLR analysis defined statistically significant hospital volume categories for each 90-day outcome. The volume category with the lowest complication rate was ≥21 TEAs per year (5.6%). The volume categories with the lowest readmission rates were 1-3 TEAs per year (4.7%) and ≥18 TEAs per year (9.2%). Revision rates were lowest in the volume categories of 1-5 TEAs per year (0.1%) and ≥18 TEAs per year (0.1%). Hospitals with ≥21 TEAs per year had the lowest cost of care and the highest rate of extended LOS (>2 days). SSLR analysis showed that non-home discharges decreased in a stepwise manner as volume increased. The lowest non-home discharge rate was associated with the volume category of ≥22 TEAs per year (20.3%). This study defines TEA volume strata for institutional outcomes. The highest TEA volume strata were associated with the lowest rates of 90-day complications, revisions, and non-home discharges and the lowest cost of care. This trend is likely attributable to the benefits of high-volume institutional experience and standardized patient-care processes.

Allograft discard risk index for lung transplantation

The demand for donor lungs continues to outpace the supply, yet nearly 75% of donor lungs intended for lung transplantation are discarded. We reviewed all donation after brain death organ donors listed within the UNOS Deceased Donor Database between 2005 and 2020. Univariable and multivariable analyses were run on the training set (n=69,355) with the primary outcome defined as lung discard, and the results were used to create a discard risk index (DSRI). Discard data were assessed at DSRI value deciles using the validation set (n=34,670), and differences in 1-year mortality were assessed using stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) analysis. Donor factors most associated with higher DSRI values included age > 65, PaO2 < 300, hepatitis C virus, and cigarette use. Factors associated with lower DSRI values included donor age < 40 and PaO2 > 400. The DSRI was a reliable predictor of donor discard, with a C-statistic of 0.867 in the training set and 0.871 in the validation set. The DSRI was not a reliable predictor of 30-day, 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival following transplantation (C-statistic 0.519-0.530). SSLR analysis resulted in three 1-year mortality strata (SSLR 0.88 in the 1st DSRI value decile, 1.03 in the 2nd-5th, & 1.19 in the 6th-10th). The factors leading to lung allograft discard are not the same as those leading to worse recipient outcomes. This suggests that with proper allocation, many of the grafts that are now commonly discarded could be used in the future donor pool with limited impact on mortality.