Stratospheric Westerlies Research Articles

Future Antarctic Climate: Storylines of Midlatitude Jet Strengthening and Shift Emergent from CMIP6

Abstract A main source of regional climate change uncertainty is the large disparity across models in simulating the atmospheric circulation response to global warming. Using the latest suite of global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a storyline approach is adopted to derive physically plausible scenarios of Antarctic climate change for 2070–99, according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5. These storylines correspond to differences in the simulated amount of seasonal sea ice loss and either (i) the delay in the summertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) breakdown or (ii) wintertime SPV strengthening, which together constitute robust drivers of the response pattern to future climate change. Such changes combined are known to exert a strong control over the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet stream, which we quantify as collectively explaining up to 70% of the variance in jet response in summer and 35% in winter. For summer, the expected strengthening and displacement of the tropospheric jet stream varies between a ∼1 and 2 m s−1 increase and ∼2°–4° poleward shift, respectively, across storylines. In both seasons, a larger strengthening of the jet is correlated with less Antarctic warming. By contrast, the response in precipitation is more consistent but still strongly attenuated by large-scale dynamics. We find that an increase in high-latitude precipitation around Antarctica is more pronounced for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift, particularly in summer. Our results highlight the usefulness of the storyline approach in illustrating model uncertainty and understanding the processes that determine the spread in projected Antarctic regional climate response. Significance Statement Uncertainty in future climate predictions for the Antarctic is dominated by the unknown response of the large-scale (global) atmospheric circulation. In characterizing such uncertainty, plausible outcomes of climate response (storylines) are generated from the organization of model projections according to the amount of simulated seasonal sea ice loss and the delay in summertime breakdown/winter strengthening of the stratospheric westerly circulation (polar vortex). The intensity and location of the tropospheric jet stream is strongly dependent on both factors, which strongly influences the near-surface climate response over Antarctica. We find that the simulated amount that Antarctic air temperatures increase by in the future (to the end of the century) is intrinsically related to the projected intensification of the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric jet, varying by a factor of 2 or more across storylines for summer. Storylines with greater jet strengthening are associated with less Antarctic warming (reduced poleward advection of air masses from lower latitudes). Similar differences are found for changes in jet position, which we note has a much stronger control on mid- to high-latitude precipitation response. This includes both an enhanced wetting response around Antarctica and drying response farther equatorward, for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift.

Mesospheric Temperature and Circulation Response to the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga‐Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

AbstractThe Hunga Tonga Hunga‐Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 injected water vapor and SO2 into the stratosphere. Several months after the eruption, significantly stronger westerlies, and a weaker Brewer‐Dobson circulation developed in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere and were accompanied by unprecedented temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In August 2022, the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument observed record‐breaking temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere that alternate signs with altitude. Ensemble simulations carried out with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) indicate that the strengthening of the stratospheric westerlies explains the mesospheric temperature changes. The stronger westerlies cause stronger westward gravity wave drag in the mesosphere. Although the enhanced gravity wave drag is partly balanced by a weakening of planetary wave forcing, the net result is an acceleration of the mesospheric mean meridional circulation. The stronger mesospheric circulation, in turn, plays a dominant role in driving the changes in mesospheric temperatures. This study highlights the impact of large volcanic eruptions on middle atmospheric dynamics and provides insight into their long‐term effects in the mesosphere. On the other hand, we could not discern a clear mechanism for the observed changes in stratospheric circulation. In fact, an examination of the WACCM ensemble reveals that not every member reproduces the large changes observed by SABER. We conclude that there is a stochastic component to the stratospheric response to the HTHH eruption.

First detection of aerosols of the Hunga Tonga eruption in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric westerlies

First detection of aerosols of the Hunga Tonga eruption in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric westerlies

Stratospheric Modulation of the MJO through Cirrus Cloud Feedbacks

Abstract Recent observations have indicated significant modulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by the phase of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during boreal winter. Composites of the MJO show that upper-tropospheric ice cloud fraction and water vapor anomalies are generally collocated, and that an eastward tilt with height in cloud fraction exists. Through radiative transfer calculations, it is shown that ice clouds have a stronger tropospheric radiative forcing than do water vapor anomalies, highlighting the importance of incorporating upper-tropospheric–lower-stratospheric processes into simple models of the MJO. The coupled troposphere–stratosphere linear model previously developed by the authors is extended by including a mean wind in the stratosphere and a prognostic equation for cirrus clouds, which are forced dynamically and allowed to modulate tropospheric radiative cooling, similar to the effect of tropospheric water vapor in previous formulations. Under these modifications, the model still produces a slow, eastward-propagating mode that resembles the MJO. The sign of zonal mean wind in the stratosphere is shown to control both the upward wave propagation and tropospheric vertical structure of the mode. Under varying stratospheric wind and interactive cirrus cloud radiation, the MJO-like mode has weaker growth rates under stratospheric westerlies than easterlies, consistent with the observed MJO–QBO relationship. These results are directly attributable to an enhanced barotropic mode under QBO easterlies. It is also shown that differential zonal advection of cirrus clouds leads to weaker growth rates under stratospheric westerlies than easterlies. Implications and limitations of the linear theory are discussed. Significance Statement Recent observations have shown that the strength of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), a global-scale envelope of wind and rain that slowly moves eastward in the tropics and dominates global-weather variations on time scales of around a month, is strongly influenced by the direction of the winds in the lower stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that lies above where weather occurs. So far, modeling studies have been unable to reproduce this connection in global climate models. The purpose of this study is to investigate the mechanisms through which the stratosphere can modulate the MJO, by using simple theoretical models. In particular, we point to the role that ice clouds high in the atmosphere play in influencing the MJO.

Twenty-first-century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean

Abstract. Changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) alter the temperature structure of the atmosphere and drive changes in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We systematically investigate the impacts of ozone recovery and increasing GHGs on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Southern Hemisphere during the twenty-first century using a unique coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model with interactive ozone chemistry and enhanced oceanic resolution. We use the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5 for GHGs under which the springtime Antarctic total column ozone returns to 1980s levels by 2048 in our model, warming the lower stratosphere and strengthening the stratospheric westerly winds. We perform a spatial analysis and show for the first time that the austral spring stratospheric response to GHGs exhibits a marked planetary wavenumber 1 (PW1) pattern, which reinforces the response to ozone recovery over the Western Hemisphere and weakens it over the Eastern Hemisphere. These changes, which imply an eastward phase shift in the PW1, largely cancel out in the zonal mean. The Southern Hemisphere residual circulation strengthens during most of the year due to the increase in GHGs and weakens in spring due to ozone recovery. However, we find that in November the GHGs also drive a weakening of the residual circulation, reinforcing the effect of ozone recovery, which represents another novel result. At the surface, the westerly winds weaken and shift equatorward due to ozone recovery, driving a weak decrease in the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and in the Agulhas leakage and a cooling of the upper ocean, which is most pronounced in the latitudinal band 35–45∘ S. The increasing GHGs drive changes in the opposite direction that overwhelm the ozone effect. The total changes at the surface and in the oceanic circulation are nevertheless weaker in the presence of ozone recovery than those induced by GHGs alone, highlighting the importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating some of the impacts of climate change. We additionally compare the combined effect of interactively calculated ozone recovery and increasing GHGs with their combined effect in an ensemble in which we prescribe the CMIP6 ozone field. This second ensemble simulates a weaker ozone effect in all the examined fields, consistent with its weaker increase in ozone. The magnitude of the difference between the simulated changes at the surface and in the oceanic circulation in the two ensembles is as large as the ozone effect itself. This shows the large uncertainty that is associated with the choice of the ozone field and how the ozone is treated.

Asymmetric impact of the Scandinavian pattern on stratospheric circulation anomalies

AbstractThis study investigates the stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern in boreal winter. The results indicate that the SCA impacts stratospheric circulation but that its positive and negative phases have different effects. The positive phase of the SCA (SCA+) pattern is restricted to the troposphere, but the negative phase (SCA−) extends to the upper stratosphere. The asymmetry between phases is also visible in the lead-lag evolution of the stratosphere and troposphere. Prominent stratospheric anomalies are found to be intensified following SCA+events, but prior to SCA−events. Further analysis reveals that the responses are associated with upward propagation of planetary waves, especially wavenumber 1 which is asymmetric between SCA phases. The wave amplitudes in the stratosphere, originating from the troposphere, are enhanced after the SCA+events and before the SCA−events. Furthermore, the anomalous planetary wave activity can be understood through its interference with climatological stationary waves. Constructive wave interference is accompanied by clear upward propagation in the SCA+events, while destructive interference suppresses stratospheric waves in the SCA−events. Our results also reveal that the SCA+events are more likely to be followed by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, because of the deceleration of stratospheric westerlies following the SCA+events.

Emergence of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation changes in response to ozone recovery

Depletion of stratospheric ozone in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the late twentieth century cooled local air temperature, which resulted in stronger stratospheric westerly winds near 60° S and altered SH surface climate. However, Antarctic ozone has been recovering since around 2001 thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which banned production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances. Here we show that the post-2001 increase in ozone has resulted in significant changes to trends in SH temperature and circulation. The trends are generally of opposite sign to those that resulted from stratospheric ozone losses, including a warming of the SH polar lower stratosphere and a weakening of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. Observed post-2001 trends of temperature and circulation in the stratosphere are about 50–75% smaller in magnitude than the trends during the ozone depletion era. The response is broadly consistent with expectations based on modelled depletion-era trends and variability of both ozone and reactive chlorine. The differences in observed stratospheric trends between the recovery and depletion periods are statistically significant (P < 0.05), providing evidence for the emergence of dynamical impacts of the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole. Antarctic ozone-hole recovery has caused significant changes in Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation, according to atmospheric reanalysis and global climate modelling.

Improved Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere by Adjusting Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations in Seasonal Experiments With ICON‐NWP

AbstractThe stratosphere is one of the main potential sources for subseasonal to seasonal predictability in midlatitudes in winter. The ability of an atmospheric model to realistically simulate the stratospheric dynamics is essential in order to move forward in the field of seasonal predictions in midlatitudes. Earlier studies with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic atmospheric model (ICON) point out that stratospheric westerlies in ICON are underestimated. This is the first extensive study on the evaluation of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation with ICON in numerical weather prediction (NWP) mode. Seasonal experiments with the default setup are able to reproduce the basic climatology of the stratospheric polar vortex. However, westerlies are too weak and major stratospheric warmings too frequent in ICON. Both a reduction of the nonorographic, and a reduction of the orographic gravity wave and wake drag lead to a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex and a bias reduction, in particular in January. However, the effect of the nonorographic gravity wave drag scheme on the stratosphere is stronger. Stratosphere‐troposphere coupling is intensified and more realistic due to a reduced gravity wave drag. Furthermore, an adjustment of the subgrid‐scale orographic drag parameterization leads to a significant error reduction in the mean sea level pressure. As a result of these findings, we present our current suggested improved setup for seasonal experiments with ICON‐NWP.

Stratospheric Trailing Gravity Waves from New Zealand

AbstractGravity waves are frequently observed in the stratosphere, trailing long distances from mid- to high-latitude topography. Two such trailing-wave events documented over New Zealand are examined using observations, numerical simulations, and ray-tracing analysis to explore and document stratospheric trailing-wave characteristics and formation mechanisms. We find that the trailing waves over New Zealand are orographically generated and regulated by several processes, including interaction between terrain and mountaintop winds, critical-level absorption, and lateral wave refraction. Among these, the interaction between topography and low-level winds determines the perturbation energy distribution over horizontal scales and directions near the wave source, and accordingly, trailing waves are sensitive to terrain features and low-level winds. Terrain-forced wave modes are filtered by absorption associated with directional wind shear and Jones critical levels. The former plays a role in defining wave-beam orientation, and the latter sets an upper limit for the permissible horizontal wavelength of trailing waves. On propagating into the stratosphere, these orographic gravity waves are subject to horizontal refraction associated with the meridional shear in the stratospheric westerlies, which tends to elongate the wave beams pointing toward stronger westerlies and shorten the wave beams on the opposite side.

Preferred solar signal and its transfer in the Asian–Pacific subtropical jet region

Solar impact on the tropospheric subtropical jet (SJ) has been identified previously from a zonally averaged perspective. The SJ was observed to be weaker in the high solar activity winters. However, some regional features of solar-induced SJ variations might remain unrecognized. Here it is found that the regional solar signal in wintertime Asian–Pacific zonal wind at 200 hPa, which exhibits a tripolar banded structure, greatly resembles the second internal mode of zonal wind within the same sector. Significant response of the Asian–Pacific SJ (APSJ) to increased solar forcing in boreal winter exclusively marks its center region, showing a deceleration in westerlies. Further exploration suggests two possible top–down routes to interpret this particular manifestation of solar signal in APSJ center, a tropical route and a middle–high latitude route. Regarding the tropical route, during the cold season, driven by the solar-associated reduction in Brewer–Dobson circulation, ozone concentration in tropical lower stratosphere increases notably and merely within the zonal range of APSJ center. This heats the air here and the tropical tropospheric regional upwelling is thereby suppressed. Consequently, a significant weakened APSJ center is produced via local Hadley cell. Regarding the middle–high latitude route, in early winter, solar-related pronounced westerly anomalies in the mid-latitude stratosphere only appear in the longitudinal range of APSJ center. Meanwhile, the upward propagating planetary waves from the troposphere could be reflected back downward by this intensified stratospheric westerlies. As winter progresses, through wave mean flow interactions, a resultant weakened APSJ center markedly presents in the middle of winter.

Detection of a climatological short break in the polar night jet in early winter and its relation to cooling over Siberia

Abstract. The polar night jet (PNJ) is a strong stratospheric westerly circumpolar wind at around 65∘ N in winter, and the strength of the climatological PNJ is widely recognized to increase from October through late December. Remarkably, the climatological PNJ temporarily stops increasing during late November. We examined this “short break” in terms of the atmospheric dynamical balance and the climatological seasonal march. We found that it results from an increase in the upward propagation of climatological planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere in late November, which coincides with a maximum of the climatological Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux convergence in the lower stratosphere. The upward propagation of planetary waves at 100 hPa, which is strongest over Siberia, is related to the climatological strengthening of the tropospheric trough over Siberia. We suggest that longitudinally asymmetric forcing by land–sea heating contrasts caused by their different heat capacities can account for the strengthening of the trough.

How can we understand the global distribution of the solar cycle signal on the Earth's surface?

Abstract. To understand solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface and identify the physical mechanisms responsible, surface temperature variations from observations as well as climate model data are analysed to characterize their spatial structure. The solar signal in the annual mean surface temperature is characterized by (i) mid-latitude warming and (ii) no overall tropical warming. The mid-latitude warming during solar maxima in both hemispheres is associated with a downward penetration of zonal mean zonal wind anomalies from the upper stratosphere during late winter. During the Northern Hemisphere winter this is manifested by a modulation of the polar-night jet, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere, the upper stratospheric subtropical jet plays the major role. Warming signals are particularly apparent over the Eurasian continent and ocean frontal zones, including a previously reported lagged response over the North Atlantic. In the tropics, local warming occurs over the Indian and central Pacific oceans during high solar activity. However, this warming is counterbalanced by cooling over the cold tongue sectors in the southeastern Pacific and the South Atlantic, and results in a very weak zonally averaged tropical mean signal. The cooling in the ocean basins is associated with stronger cross-equatorial winds resulting from a northward shift of the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation during solar maxima. To understand the complex processes involved in the solar signal transfer, results of an idealized middle atmosphere–ocean coupled model experiment on the impact of stratospheric zonal wind changes are compared with solar signals in observations. Model integration of 100 years of strong or weak stratospheric westerly jet condition in winter may exaggerate long-term ocean feedback. However, the role of ocean in the solar influence on the Earth's surface can be better seen. Although the momentum forcing differs from that of solar radiative forcing, the model results suggest that stratospheric changes can influence the troposphere, not only in the extratropics but also in the tropics through (i) a downward migration of wave–zonal mean flow interactions and (ii) changes in the stratospheric mean meridional circulation. These experiments support earlier evidence of an indirect solar influence from the stratosphere.

Impact of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on the Vertical Coupling of the Stratosphere–Mesosphere–Lower Thermosphere System

Abstract There is evidence that the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the Antarctic ozone hole–induced cooling cause a polar mesospheric warming and a subsequent cooling in the lower thermosphere. While previous studies focus on the role of nonresolved (gravity) wave drag filtering, here the role of resolved (planetary) wave drag and radiative forcing on the Antarctic mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) is explored in detail. Using simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) [CESM1(WACCM)], it is found that in late spring and early summer the anomalous polar mesospheric warming induced by easterly nonresolved wave drag is dampened by anomalous dynamical cooling induced by westerly resolved wave drag. This resolved wave drag is attributed to planetary-scale wave (k = 1–3) activity, which is generated in situ as a result of increased instability of the summer mesospheric easterly jet induced by the ozone hole. On the other hand, the anomalous cooling in the polar lower thermosphere induced by westerly nonresolved wave drag is enhanced by anomalous dynamical cooling due to westerly resolved wave drag. In addition, radiative effects from increased greenhouse gases during the ozone hole period contribute partially to the cooling in the polar lower thermosphere. The polar MLT temperature response to the Antarctic ozone hole is, through thermal wind balance, accompanied by the downward migration of anomalous zonal-mean wind from the lower thermosphere to the stratopause. The results highlight that a proper accounting of both dynamical and radiative effects is required in order to correctly attribute the causes of the polar MLT response to the Antarctic ozone hole.

&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;10&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM – Part 1: Climatological influences on &amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;10&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;Be deposition

Abstract. Reconstruction of solar irradiance has only been possible for the Holocene so far. During the last deglaciation, two solar proxies (10Be and 14C) deviate strongly, both of them being influenced by climatic changes in a different way. This work addresses the climate influence on 10Be deposition by means of ECHAM5-HAM atmospheric aerosol–climate model simulations, forced by sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent created by the CSIRO Mk3L coupled climate system model. Three time slice simulations were performed during the last deglaciation: 10 000 BP ("10k"), 11 000 BP ("11k") and 12 000 BP ("12k"), each 30 yr long. The same, theoretical, 10Be production rate was used in each simulation to isolate the impact of climate on 10Be deposition. The changes are found to follow roughly the reduction in the greenhouse gas concentrations within the simulations. The 10k and 11k simulations produce a surface cooling which is symmetrically amplified in the 12k simulation. The precipitation rate is only slightly reduced at high latitudes, but there is a northward shift in the polar jet in the Northern Hemisphere, and the stratospheric westerly winds are significantly weakened. These changes occur where the sea ice change is largest in the deglaciation simulations. This leads to a longer residence time of 10Be in the stratosphere by 30 (10k and 11k) to 80 (12k) days, increasing the atmospheric concentrations (25–30% in 10k and 11k and 100% in 12k). Furthermore the shift of westerlies in the troposphere leads to an increase of tropospheric 10Be concentrations, especially at high latitudes. The contribution of dry deposition generally increases, but decreases where sea ice changes are largest. In total, the 10Be deposition rate changes by no more than 20% at mid- to high latitudes, but by up to 50% in the tropics. We conclude that on "long" time scales (a year to a few years), climatic influences on 10Be deposition remain small (less than 50%) even though atmospheric concentrations can vary significantly. Averaged over a longer period, all 10Be produced has to be deposited by mass conservation. This dominates over any climatic influences on 10Be deposition. Snow concentrations, however, do not follow mass conservation and can potentially be impacted more by climate due to precipitation changes. Quantifying the impact of deglacial climate modulation on 10Be in terms of preserving the solar signal locally is analysed in an accompanying paper (Heikkilä et al., 10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM – Part 2: Isolating the solar signal from 10Be deposition).

Influence of the vertical and zonal propagation of stratospheric planetary waves on tropospheric blockings

AbstractCase studies are used to elucidate the relationship between stratospheric planetary wave reflection and blocking formation in the troposphere. The enhanced upward propagation of a planetary‐scale wave packet from the Eurasian sector, involving a Euro‐Atlantic blocking, leads to a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). Following the weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet due to polar warming, the stratospheric planetary wave packet then propagates downward over the American sector, inducing a ridge over the North Pacific as well as a trough over eastern Canada in the upper troposphere. The ridge promotes the formation of a Pacific blocking. This result explains why Pacific blockings tend to form after SSW, and why they are associated with suppressed upward propagation of planetary waves.

Influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on the polar mesopause region as simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

It is well established that variations in polar stratospheric winds can affect mesospheric temperatures through changes in the filtering of gravity wave fluxes, which drive a residual circulation in the mesosphere. The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is used to examine this vertical coupling mechanism in the context of the mesospheric response to the Antarctic ozone hole. It is found that the response differs significantly between late spring and early summer, because of a changing balance between the competing effects of parametrised gravity wave drag (GWD) and changes in resolved wave drag local to the mesosphere. In late spring, the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the ozone hole lead to reduced eastward GWD in the mesosphere and a warming of the polar mesosphere, just as in the well known mesospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings, but with an opposite sign. In early summer, with easterly flow prevailing over most of the polar stratosphere, the strengthened easterly wind shear within the mesosphere arising from the westward GWD anomaly induces a positive resolved wave drag anomaly through baroclinic instability. The polar cooling induced by this process completely dominates the upper mesospheric response to the ozone hole in early summer. Consequences for the past and future evolution of noctilucent clouds are discussed.

Relationships between the Brewer‐Dobson circulation and the southern annular mode during austral summer in coupled chemistry‐climate model simulations

The Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC) is the mean meridional mass circulation in the stratosphere and the southern annular mode (SAM) is the prime variability pattern of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Motivated by previous studies showing that both the strengths of the BDC and the SAM have the largest trends in the austral summer in the recent past, this paper investigates the relationships between the BDC and the SAM using coupled chemistry‐climate model simulations. The model results show that the strengthening of the BDC in the Southern Hemisphere during November–February (NDJF) is strongly projected onto the high index of the SAM. The trends in the BDC and the SAM are driven by Antarctic ozone depletion, which increases stratosphere‐troposphere interactions through a delayed Antarctic vortex breakup. The prolonged persistence of stratospheric westerlies enhances upward propagation of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere and strengthens the BDC. The wave flux and westerly anomalies in the stratosphere in turn drive a SAM trend toward its high index. Model results also show that the BDC‐SAM relationship is robust on the interannual time scale.

Tropospheric impact of reflected planetary waves from the stratosphere

A reflection of stratospheric planetary waves and its impact on the troposphere during a stratospheric sudden warming of March 2007 are investigated. Zonal propagation and reflection of the planetary waves is clearly seen in the longitude‐height sections of the eddy geopotential height and the vertical and zonal component of the three‐dimensional wave activity flux. A wave packet propagating upward and eastward from Eurasian continent was reflected by a negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric westerly jet caused by stratospheric warming. Waves then propagated downward to the American‐Atlantic sector of the troposphere, which led to the formation of a deep trough over the Atlantic and brought cold weather to the northeastern part of the American continent.

Stratospheric Vacillations and the Major Warming over Antarctica in 2002

Abstract The conditions that lead to the major warming over Antarctica in late September 2002 are examined. In many respects, the warming resembled wave-2 warmings seen in the Northern Hemisphere; the winter cyclonic circulation was split into two smaller cyclones by a large amplitude planetary wave disturbance that appeared to propagate upward from the troposphere. However, in addition to this classic warming mechanism, distinctive stratospheric vacillations occurred throughout the preceding winter months. These vacillations in wave amplitude, Eliassen–Palm fluxes, and zonal-mean zonal winds are examined. By comparison with a numerical model experiment, it is shown that the vacillation is accompanied by a systematic weakening of the westerly winds over the season. This preconditions the Antarctic circulation, and it is argued that it allows anomalously strong vertical propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere into the stratosphere. By contrast, a survey of previous winters shows that stratospheric westerlies usually vary much more gradually, with vacillations only occurring for short periods of time, if at all, in a given winter. Similar vacillations in a numerical model of the stratosphere only occur if the forcing amplitude is above a certain value. However, the level of winter-mean wave activity entering the stratosphere during 2002 is not unprecedented, and there is still some uncertainty over the cause of the onset and persistence of the vacillation and, ultimately, the major warming.

Mixing Layer Formation near the Tropopause Due to Gravity Wave–Critical Level Interactions in a Cloud-Resolving Model

Abstract A plausible mechanism for the formation of mixing layers in the lower stratosphere above regions of tropical convection is demonstrated numerically using high-resolution, two-dimensional (2D), anelastic, nonlinear, cloud-resolving simulations. One noteworthy point is that the mixing layer simulated in this study is free of anvil clouds and well above the cloud anvil top located in the upper troposphere. Hence, the present mechanism is complementary to the well-known process by which overshooting cloud turrets causes mixing within stratospheric anvil clouds. The paper is organized as a case study verifying the proposed mechanism using atmospheric soundings obtained during the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment (CEPEX), when several such mixing layers, devoid of anvil clouds, had been observed. The basic dynamical ingredient of the present mechanism is (quasi stationary) gravity wave–critical level interactions, occurring in association with a reversal of stratospheric westerlies to easterlies below the tropopause region. The robustness of the results is shown through simulations at different resolutions. The insensitivity of the qualitative results to the details of the subgrid scheme is also evinced through further simulations with and without subgrid mixing terms. From Lagrangian reconstruction of (passive) ozone fields, it is shown that the mixing layer is formed kinematically through advection by the resolved-scale (nonlinear) velocity field.