Stratospheric Aerosol Loading Research Articles

Temperature and Ozone Response to Different Forcing in the Lower Troposphere and Stratosphere

To evaluate the contributions of different forcings to the temperature and atmospheric composition changes between 1980 and 2020, we exploited the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3. The study examined ozone content and atmospheric temperature response to (1) ozone-depleting substances; (2) greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean surface temperature, and sea ice coverage; (3) solar irradiance; and (4) stratospheric aerosol loading and, separately, (5) greenhouse gas concentrations, (6) ocean surface temperature and sea ice coverage, and (7) NOx surface emissions. To evaluate the impacts of specific factors, we performed model runs driven by each factor (1–7) variability as well as a reference experiment that accounted for the influence of all factors simultaneously. We identified the relative contribution of different factors to the evolution of the temperature and ozone content of the lower troposphere and stratosphere from 1980 to 2020. The model results were in good agreement with the reanalyses (MERRA2 and ERA5). We showed that stratospheric ozone depletion before the Montreal Protocol introduction and partial recovery after that were chiefly driven by ODS. Stratospheric aerosol from major volcanic eruptions caused only short-term (up to 5 years) ozone decline. Increased greenhouse gas emissions dominate the ongoing long-term stratospheric cooling as well as tropospheric and surface warming. Solar irradiance contributed to short-term fluctuations but had a minimal long-term impact. Furthermore, our analysis of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere underscores the complex interplay of solar radiation with volcanic, oceanic, and atmospheric factors, revealing significant altitudinal distributions of temperature and ozone responses to solar activity. Our findings advocate further innovative methodologies to take into account the nonlinearity of the atmospheric processes.

The impact of volcanic eruptions, pyrocumulonimbus plumes, and the Arctic polar vortex intrusions on aerosol loading over Tomsk (Western Siberia, Russia) as observed by lidar from 2018 to 2022

ABSTRACT Long-term ground-based lidar observations are important in estimating the contribution of different sources (mostly volcanic eruptions and wildfires) to aerosol loading of the atmosphere and in developing and improving various climate models. In this paper, we carefully analyse aerosol scattering ratio profiles and aerosol layers, observed with 532-nm lidar measurements at the Siberian Lidar Station in Tomsk (56.48°N, 85.05°E) over the period 2018–2022, and identify the layers’ potential sources. To compare aerosol loading over Tomsk for the last five years (2018–2022) with that for previous years, we also present and discuss time series of integrated aerosol backscatter coefficient (IABC) for three altitude ranges. The first range (15–30 km) reveals the pure stratospheric aerosol loading provided by volcanic eruptions, the second range (11–15 km) is responsible mainly for aftereffects of wildfire smoke plumes, and the third one (11–30 km) demonstrates aerosol contribution from both sources. In particular, we found for the period 2001–2022 that the annual average IABC reached its maximal values of 2.91 × 10−4 sr−1 (15–30 km) and 8.21 × 10−4 sr−1 (11–30 km) in 2022 due to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption. The period 2020–2022 exhibited a significant increase in the relative aerosol content at altitudes of 11–15 km in the total aerosol loading at 11–30 km over Tomsk from 54.4% in 2020 to 64.8% in 2022, which indicates a shift of the main part of aerosol loading to altitudes of 11–15 km due to the increased wildfire activity in North America and north-eastern Asia. The Arctic polar vortex is also revealed to distort the real aerosol vertical distribution over Tomsk by replacing it with the aerosol distribution inside the vortex on measurement days when the vortex is over the lidar site.

Toward Rapid Balloon Experiments for Sudden Aerosol Injection in the Stratosphere (REAS) by Volcanic Eruptions and Wildfires

Abstract Stratospheric aerosols are greatly influenced by medium-to-large volcanic eruptions. Over the last few years, extreme wildfires have been identified as new sources of stratospheric particles, in the form of carbonaceous aerosols injected by pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, associated with significant impacts on climate and ozone chemistry. To assess the impact of wildfires and volcanic eruptions on stratospheric aerosol loadings in the Northern Hemisphere, the Rapid Balloon Experiments for Sudden Aerosol Injection in the Stratosphere (REAS) project has been initiated. REAS is an international initiative that aims to respond to sudden events impacting stratospheric aerosol composition. Seventeen balloons were launched from Reims, eastern France, between November 2021 and January 2022 to quantify the atmospheric content for both aerosols and trace/greenhouse gases from the ground up to stratospheric levels. The main measurements concerned trace gases (CO/CO2 as tracers of smoke) and aerosol together with ozone using instruments such as a gas collector, optical particle counters, backscatter sondes, an aerosol sampler, an aerosol impactor, and ozonesondes. The Groupe de Spectrométrie Moléculaire et Atmosphérique (GSMA) launch facility provided unique possibilities of combining multiple measurements in one flight thanks to medium flights (corresponding to a 6 kg payload). While no major event impacted the stratosphere during the campaign, we particularly discuss the influence of the aged volcanic plume from La Soufrière volcano (Saint Vincent island) and smoke particles from series of pyroCb events that took place in North America. The burden as well as the optical and microphysical properties of the observed aerosols are quantified from these in situ observations in association with various satellite data.

Strong Evidence of Heterogeneous Processing on Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol in the Extrapolar Southern Hemisphere Following the 2022 Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai Eruption

AbstractThe January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HT‐HH) caused the largest enhancement in stratospheric aerosol loading in decades and produced an unprecedented enhancement in stratospheric water vapor, leading to strong stratospheric cooling that in turn induced changes in the large‐scale circulation. Here we use satellite measurements of gas‐phase constituents together with aerosol extinction to investigate the extent to which the thick aerosol, excess moisture, and strong cooling enabled heterogeneous chemical processing. In the southern tropics, unambiguous signatures of substantial chlorine and nitrogen repartitioning appear over a broad vertical domain almost immediately after the eruption, with depletion of N2O5, NOx, and HCl accompanied by enhancement of HNO3, ClO, and ClONO2. After initially rising steeply, HNO3 and ClO plateau, maintaining fairly constant abundances for several months. These patterns are consistent with the saturation of N2O5 hydrolysis, suggesting that this reaction is the primary mechanism for the observed composition changes. The southern midlatitudes and subtropics show similar but weaker enhancements in ClO and ClONO2. In those regions, however, effects of anomalous transport dominate the evolution of HNO3 and HCl, obscuring the signs of heterogeneous processing. Perturbations in chlorine species are considerably weaker than those measured in the southern midlatitude stratosphere in 2020 following the Australian New Year's fires. The moderate HT‐HH‐induced enhancements in reactive chlorine seen throughout the southern middle and low‐latitude stratosphere, far smaller than those in typical winter polar vortices, do not lead to appreciable chemical ozone loss; rather, extrapolar lower‐stratospheric ozone remains primarily controlled by dynamical processes.

Revisiting the Mechanisms of ENSO Response to Tropical Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractStratospheric volcanic aerosol can have major impacts on global climate. Despite a consensus among studies on an El Niño‐like response in the first or second post‐eruption year, the mechanisms that trigger a change in the state of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) following volcanic eruptions are still debated. Here, we shed light on the processes that govern the ENSO response to tropical volcanic eruptions through a series of sensitivity experiments with an Earth System Model where a uniform stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading is imposed over different parts of the tropics. Three tropical mechanisms are tested: the “ocean dynamical thermostat” (ODT); the cooling of the Maritime Continent; and the cooling of tropical northern Africa (NAFR). We find that the NAFR mechanism plays the largest role, while the ODT mechanism is absent in our simulations as La Niña‐like rather than El‐Niño‐like conditions develop following a uniform radiative forcing over the equatorial Pacific.

Global perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption

The eruption of the submarine Hunga volcano in January 2022 was associated with a powerful blast that injected volcanic material to altitudes up to 58 km. From a combination of various types of satellite and ground-based observations supported by transport modeling, we show evidence for an unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13% relative to climatological levels, and a 5-fold increase of stratospheric aerosol load, the highest in the last three decades. Owing to the extreme injection altitude, the volcanic plume circumnavigated the Earth in only 1 week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months. The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate.

Is it possible to estimate aerosol optical depth from historic colour paintings?

Abstract. The idea of estimating stratospheric aerosol optical thickness from the twilight colours in historic paintings – particularly under conditions of volcanically enhanced stratospheric aerosol loading – is very tantalizing because it would provide information on the stratospheric aerosol loading over a period of several centuries. This idea has in fact been applied in a few studies in order to provide quantitative estimates of the aerosol optical depth after some of the major volcanic eruptions that occurred during the past 500 years. In this study we critically review this approach and come to the conclusion that the uncertainties in the estimated aerosol optical depths are so large that the values have to be considered questionable. We show that several auxiliary parameters – which are typically poorly known for historic eruptions – can have a similar effect on the red–green colour ratio as a change in optical depth typically associated with eruptions such as, for example, Tambora in 1815 or Krakatoa in 1883. Among the effects considered here, uncertainties in the aerosol particle size distribution have the largest impact on the colour ratios and hence the aerosol optical depth estimate. For solar zenith angles exceeding 80∘, uncertainties in the stratospheric ozone amount can also have a significant impact on the colour ratios. In addition, for solar zenith angles exceeding 90∘ the colour ratios exhibit a dramatic dependence on solar zenith angle, rendering the estimation of aerosol optical depth highly challenging. A quantitative determination of the aerosol optical depth may be possible for individual paintings for which all relevant parameters are sufficiently well constrained in order to reduce the related errors.

Statistical Associations Between Geomagnetic Activity, Solar Wind, Solar Proton Events, and Winter NAO and AO Indices

AbstractNumerous studies have revealed evidence that winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere is related to the solar cycle and space weather. Most of the studies investigating the impact of space weather on the North Atlantic Oscillation and Artic Oscillation indices (NAOIs and AOIs) analyzed monthly or seasonal data. In this work, we evaluated the responses of winter NAOI/AOI to space weather changes on the day‐to‐day timescale during 1950–2020 by using an autoregressive (AR) model with additional predictors, such as month, linear trend, trends of solar irradiance and Kp indices, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the presence of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and high stratospheric aerosol loading (HSAL), and space weather variables, reflecting the day‐to‐day effect. Winter daily NAOI (AOI) follows the AR model of the 4th (5th) order. We found a positive day‐to‐day effect of Kp, solar wind speed (SWS) > 300 km/s, By ≤ 3.15 nT, and solar wind dynamic pressure (P) with a lag of 2 days on the NAOI and the AOI. For the AOI, additionally, the period of 1 day before–2 days after the solar proton event onset had a negative effect, and the signal of Kp and SWS was observed only for the east QBO phase. For the NAOI, a stronger effect of P was found on the presence of a strongly positive QBO phase. A stronger signal of Kp and SWS was found during HSAL. The signal of SWS > 300 km/s on the NAOI/AOI was different in sign during the periods with and without SSW.

A global view on stratospheric ice clouds: assessment of processes related to their occurrence based on satellite observations

Abstract. Ice clouds play an important role in regulating water vapor and influencing the radiative budget in the atmosphere. This study investigates stratospheric ice clouds (SICs) in the latitude range between ±60∘ based on the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). As polar stratospheric clouds include other particles, they are not discussed in this work. Tropopause temperature, double tropopauses, clouds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), gravity waves, and stratospheric aerosols are analyzed to investigate their relationships with the occurrence of and variability in SICs in the tropics and at midlatitudes. We found that SICs with cloud-top heights of 250 m above the first lapse rate tropopause are mainly detected in the tropics. Monthly time series of SICs from 2007 to 2019 show that high occurrence frequencies of SICs follow the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over time in the tropics and that SICs vary interannually at different latitudes. Results show that SICs associated with double tropopauses, which are related to poleward isentropic transport, are mostly found at midlatitudes. More than 80 % of the SICs around 30∘ N/S are associated with double tropopauses. Correlation coefficients of SICs and all the other abovementioned processes confirm that the occurrence of and variability in SICs are mainly associated with the tropopause temperature in the tropics and at midlatitudes. UTLS clouds, which are retrieved from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and used as a proxy for deep convection in the tropics and high-altitude ice cloud sources at midlatitudes, have the highest correlations with SICs in the monsoon regions and the central United States. Gravity waves are mostly related to SICs at midlatitudes, especially over Patagonia and the Drake Passage. However, the second-highest correlation coefficients show that the cold tropopause temperature, the occurrence of double tropopauses, high stratospheric aerosol loading, frequent UTLS clouds, and gravity waves are highly correlated with the SICs locally. The long-term anomaly analyses show that interannual anomalies of SICs are correlated with the tropopause temperature and stratospheric aerosols instead of the UTLS clouds and gravity waves. The overlapping and similar correlation coefficients between SICs and all processes mentioned above indicate strong associations between those processes themselves. Due to their high inherent correlations, it is challenging to disentangle and evaluate their contributions to the occurrence of SICs on a global scale. However, the correlation coefficient analyses between SICs and all abovementioned processes (tropopause temperature, double tropopauses, clouds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), gravity waves, and stratospheric aerosols) in this study help us better understand the sources of SICs on a global scale.

Australian Black Summer Smoke Observed by Lidar at the French Antarctic Station Dumont d’Urville

AbstractIn the follow‐up of the Australian ”Black Summer” event that persisted from August 2019 to March 2020, we present the optical properties of the stratospheric aerosols injected into the atmosphere by these wildfires. The outbreak of pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) activity triggered between 2019/12/29 and 2020/01/04 has raised the stratospheric aerosol load of the Southern Hemisphere to unprecedented levels. Long‐range transport brought some of the plumes down to the Antarctic region, where general circulation patterns kept them circling around the continent. The 532 nm Rayleigh/Mie/Raman ground‐based lidar of the French Antarctic station Dumont d’Urville (66.6°S–140°E) acquired unprecedented time series of these carbonaceous aerosols starting approximately 20 days after the injection and up to the most recent measurements in October 2019 where local radiosonde reported anomalous ozone depletion as compared to the decadal average. The lidar provides a first and unique time series at high vertical and temporal resolution, complemented by satellite measurements from Ozone Monitoring Instrument, Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite, and Microwave Limb Sounder. Aerosol backscatter ratio decreases from 1.9 to 1.2 between January and June 2020. Aerosol origin and persistence are characterized, as well as their optical properties and vertical distribution over several months.

Modeling the Sulfate Aerosol Evolution After Recent Moderate Volcanic Activity, 2008–2012

AbstractVolcanic activity is a major natural climate forcing and an accurate representation of volcanic aerosols in global climate models is essential. This is a complex task involving many uncertainties in the model design and setup and observations. We analyze the performance of the aerosol‐chemistry‐climate model SOCOL‐AERv2 for three medium‐sized volcanic eruptions. We focus on the impact of differences in volcanic plume height and SO2 estimates on the stratospheric aerosol burden. The influence of internal model variability and dynamics are addressed through an ensemble of free‐running and nudged simulations at different vertical resolutions. Comparing the modeled evolution of the stratospheric aerosol loading to satellite measurements reveals a good model performance. However, a conclusive validation is complicated by uncertainties in observations and emission estimates. The large spread in emitted sulfur amount and its vertical distribution consequently lead to differences in simulated aerosol burdens. Varying tropopause heights among free‐running simulations add to these differences, modulating the amount of sulfur injected into the stratosphere. In nudged mode, volcanic aerosol burden peaks are well reproduced, however changes in convection and clouds affect SO2 oxidation paths and cross‐tropopause transport, leading to increased background burdens compared to observations. This effect can be reduced by leaving temperatures unconstrained. A higher vertical resolution of 90 levels increases the stratospheric residence time of sulfate aerosol by reducing the diffusion out of the tropical reservoir. We conclude that the model set‐up (vertical resolution and free‐running vs. nudged) as well as forcing parameters (volcanic emission strength and plume height) contribute equally to the model uncertainties.

Changes in stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient after the 2018 Ambae eruption as seen by OMPS-LP and MAECHAM5-HAM

Abstract. Stratospheric aerosols are an important component of the climate system. They not only change the radiative budget of the Earth but also play an essential role in ozone depletion. These impacts are particularly noticeable after volcanic eruptions when SO2 injected with the eruption reaches the stratosphere, oxidizes, and forms stratospheric aerosol. There have been several studies in which a volcanic eruption plume and the associated radiative forcing were analyzed using climate models and/or data from satellite measurements. However, few have compared vertically and temporally resolved volcanic plumes using both measured and modeled data. In this paper, we compared changes in the stratospheric aerosol loading after the 2018 Ambae eruption observed by satellite remote sensing measurements and simulated by a global aerosol model. We use vertical profiles of the aerosol extinction coefficient at 869 nm retrieved at the Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP) in Bremen from OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping and Profiling Suite – Limb Profiler) observations. Here, we present the retrieval algorithm and a comparison of the obtained profiles with those from SAGE III/ISS (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on board the International Space Station). The observed differences are within 25 % for most latitude bins, which indicates a reasonable quality of the retrieved limb aerosol extinction product. The volcanic plume evolution is investigated using both monthly mean aerosol extinction coefficients and 10 d averaged data. The measurement results were compared with the model output from MAECHAM5-HAM (ECHAM for short). In order to simulate the eruption accurately, we use SO2 injection estimates from OMPS and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) for the first phase of eruption and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) for the second phase. Generally, the agreement between the vertical and geographical distribution of the aerosol extinction coefficient from OMPS-LP and ECHAM is quite remarkable, in particular, for the second phase. We attribute the good consistency between the model and the measurements to the precise estimation of injected SO2 mass and height, as well as to the nudging to ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data. Additionally, we compared the radiative forcing (RF) caused by the increase in the aerosol loading in the stratosphere after the eruption. After accounting for the uncertainties from different RF calculation methods, the RFs from ECHAM and OMPS-LP agree quite well. We estimate the tropical (20∘ N to 20∘ S) RF from the second Ambae eruption to be about −0.13 W m−2.

Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics

Abstract. It has been suggested that increased stratospheric sulfate aerosol loadings following large, low latitude volcanic eruptions can lead to wintertime warming over Eurasia through dynamical stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We here investigate the proposed connection in the context of hypothetical future stratospheric sulfate geoengineering in the Geoengineering Large Ensemble simulations. In those geoengineering simulations, we find that stratospheric circulation anomalies that resemble the positive phase of the Northern Annular Mode in winter are a distinguishing climate response which is absent when increasing greenhouse gases alone are prescribed. This stratospheric dynamical response projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, leading to associated side effects of this climate intervention strategy, such as continental Eurasian warming and precipitation changes. Seasonality is a key signature of the dynamically driven surface response. We find an opposite response of the North Atlantic Oscillation in summer, when no dynamical role of the stratosphere is expected. The robustness of the wintertime forced response stands in contrast to previously proposed volcanic responses.

Long-term (1999–2019) variability of stratospheric aerosol over Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as seen by two co-located lidars and satellite measurements

Abstract. As part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), ground-based measurements obtained from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) stratospheric ozone lidar and the NOAA stratospheric aerosol lidar at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over the past 2 decades were used to investigate the impact of volcanic eruptions and pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) smoke plumes on the stratospheric aerosol load above Hawaii since 1999. Measurements at 355 and 532 nm conducted by these two lidars revealed a color ratio of 0.5 for background aerosols and small volcanic plumes and 0.8 for a PyroCb plume recorded on September 2017. Measurements of the Nabro plume by the JPL lidar in 2011–2012 showed a lidar ratio of (64±12.7) sr at 355 nm around the center of the plume. The new Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) Level 3 and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III-ISS) stratospheric aerosol datasets were compared to the ground-based lidar datasets. The intercomparison revealed a generally good agreement, with vertical profiles of extinction coefficient within 50 % discrepancy between 17 and 23 km above sea level (a.s.l.) and 25 % above 23 km a.s.l. The stratospheric aerosol depth derived from all of these datasets shows good agreement, with the largest discrepancy (20 %) being observed between the new CALIOP Level 3 and the other datasets. All datasets consistently reveal a relatively quiescent period between 1999 and 2006, followed by an active period of multiple eruptions (e.g., Nabro) until early 2012. Another quiescent period, with slightly higher aerosol background, lasted until mid-2017, when a combination of extensive wildfires and multiple volcanic eruptions caused a significant increase in stratospheric aerosol loading. This loading maximized at the very end of the time period considered (fall 2019) as a result of the Raikoke eruption, the plume of which ascended to 26 km altitude in less than 3 months.

Radiocarbon and geologic evidence reveal Ilopango volcano as source of the colossal ‘mystery’ eruption of 539/40 CE

Ilopango volcano (El Salvador) erupted violently during the Maya Classic Period (250–900 CE) in a densely-populated and intensively-cultivated region of the southern Maya realm, causing regional abandonment of an area covering more than 20,000 km2. However, neither the regional nor global impacts of the Tierra Blanca Joven (TBJ) eruption in Mesoamerica have been well appraised due to limitations in available volcanological, chronological, and archaeological observations. Here we present new evidence of the age, magnitude and sulfur release of the TBJ eruption, establishing it as one of the two hitherto unidentified volcanic triggers of a period of stratospheric aerosol loading that profoundly impacted Northern Hemisphere climate and society between circa 536 and 550 CE. Our chronology is derived from 100 new radiocarbon measurements performed on three subfossil tree trunks enveloped in proximal TBJ pyroclastic deposits. We also reassess the eruption magnitude using terrestrial (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras) and near-shore marine TBJ tephra deposit thickness measurements. Together, our new constraints on the age, eruption size (43.6 km3 Dense Rock Equivalent of magma, magnitude = 7.0) and sulfur yield (∼9–90 Tg), along with Ilopango's latitude (13.7° N), squarely frame the TBJ as the major climate-forcing eruption of 539 or 540 CE identified in bipolar ice cores and sourced to the tropics. In addition to deepening appreciation of the TBJ eruption's impacts in Mesoamerica, linking it to the major Northern Hemisphere climatic downturn of the mid-6th century CE offers another piece in the puzzle of understanding Eurasian history of the period.

Evidence for a volcanic underpinning of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is a 60–70 year pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic commonly ascribed to internal ocean dynamics and changes in northward heat transport. Recent modeling studies, however, suggest that SSTs fluctuate primarily in response to major volcanic eruptions and changes in atmospheric circulation. Here, we utilize historical SST, atmospheric reanalysis, and stratospheric aerosol optical depth data to examine the basic evidence supporting a volcanic link. We find that cool intervals across the North Atlantic coincide with two distinct episodes of explosive volcanic activity (1880s–1920s and 1960s–1990s), where key eruptions include 1883 Krakatau, 1902 Santa María, 1912 Novarupta, 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo. Cool SST patterns develop in association with an increased prevalence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)+ atmospheric patterns caused by stratospheric aerosol loading and a steepened poleward temperature gradient. NAO+ patterns promote wind-driven advection, evaporative cooling, and increased albedo from enhanced Saharan dust transport and anthropogenic aerosols. SSTs across the subpolar gyre are regulated by strength of low pressure near Iceland and the associated wind-driven advection of cold surface water from the Labrador Sea. This is contrary to an interpretation that subpolar SSTs are driven by changes in ocean overturning circulation. We also find that North Pacific and global mean SST declines can be readily associated with the same volcanic triggers that affect the North Atlantic. Thus, external forcing from volcanic aerosols appears to underpin multi-decade SST variability observed in the historical record.

On the Role of Heterogeneous Chemistry in Ozone Depletion and Recovery

AbstractWe demonstrate that identification of stratospheric ozone changes attributable to ozone depleting substances and actions taken under the Montreal Protocol requires evaluation of confounding influences from volcanic eruptions. Using a state‐of‐the‐art chemistry‐climate model, we show that increased stratospheric aerosol loading from volcanic eruptions after 2004 impeded the rate of ozone recovery post‐2000. In contrast, eruptions increased ozone loss rates over the depletion era from 1980 to 1998. We also present calculations without any aerosol chemistry to isolate contributions from gas‐phase chemistry alone. This study reinforces the need for accurate information regarding stratospheric aerosol loading when modeling ozone changes, particularly for the challenging task of accurately identifying the early signs of ozone healing distinct from other sources of variability.

Volcanic impact on the climate – the stratospheric aerosol load in the period 2006–2015

Abstract. We present a study on the stratospheric aerosol load during 2006–2015, discuss the influence from volcanism and other sources, and reconstruct an aerosol optical depth (AOD) data set in a resolution of 1∘ latitudinally and 8 days timewise. The purpose is to include the “entire” stratosphere, from the tropopause to the almost particle-free altitudes of the midstratosphere. A dynamic tropopause of 1.5 PVU was used, since it enclosed almost all of the volcanic signals in the CALIOP data set. The data were successfully cleaned from polar stratospheric clouds using a temperature threshold of 195 K. Furthermore, a method was developed to correct data when the CALIOP laser beam was strongly attenuated by volcanic aerosol, preventing a negative bias in the AOD data set. Tropospheric influence, likely from upwelling dust, was found in the extratropical transition layer in spring. Eruptions of both extratropical and tropical volcanoes that injected aerosol into the stratosphere impacted the stratospheric aerosol load for up to a year if their clouds reached lower than 20 km altitude. Deeper-reaching tropical injections rose in the tropical pipe and impacted it for several years. Our AODs mostly compare well to other long-term studies of the stratospheric AOD. Over the years 2006–2015, volcanic eruptions increased the stratospheric AOD on average by ∼40 %. In absolute numbers the stratospheric AOD and radiative forcing amounted to 0.008 and −0.2 W m−2, respectively.

Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing

The last major volcanic eruptions, the Agung in 1963, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were each associated with a cooling of the troposphere that has been observed over large continental areas and over the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Southern Atlantic. Simultaneously, Eastern tropical Pacific temperatures increased due to prevailing El Niño conditions. Here we show that the pattern of these near-surface temperature anomalies is partly reproduced with decadal simulations of the EC-Earth model initialised with climate observations and forced with an estimate of the observed volcanic aerosol optical thickness. Sensitivity experiments highlight a cooling induced by the volcanic forcing, whereas El Niño events following the eruptions would have occurred even without volcanic eruptions. Focusing on the period 1961–2001, the main source of skill of this decadal forecast system during the first 2 years is related to the initialisation of the model. The contribution of the initialisation to the skill becomes smaller than the contribution of the volcanic forcing after two years, the latter being substantial in the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Western Atlantic. Two simple protocols for real time forecasts are investigated: using the forcing of a past volcanic eruption to simulate the forcing of a new one, and applying a two-year exponential decay to the initial stratospheric aerosol load observed at the beginning of the forecast. This second protocol applied in retrospective forecasts allows a partial reproduction of the skill attained with observed forcing.

Retrieval of ozone profiles from OMPS limb scattering observations

Abstract. This study describes a retrieval algorithm developed at the University of Bremen to obtain vertical profiles of ozone from limb observations performed by the Ozone Mapper and Profiler Suite (OMPS). This algorithm is based on the technique originally developed for use with data from the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) instrument. As both instruments make limb measurements of the scattered solar radiation in the ultraviolet (UV) and visible (Vis) spectral ranges, an underlying objective of the study is to obtain consolidated and consistent ozone profiles from the two satellites and to produce a combined data set. The retrieval algorithm uses radiances in the UV and Vis wavelength ranges normalized to the radiance at an upper tangent height to obtain ozone concentrations in the altitude range of 12–60 km. Measurements at altitudes contaminated by clouds in the instrument field of view are identified and filtered out. An independent aerosol retrieval is performed beforehand and its results are used to account for the stratospheric aerosol load in the ozone inversion. The typical vertical resolution of the retrieved profiles varies from ∼ 2.5 km at lower altitudes ( < 30 km) to ∼ 1.5 km (about 45 km) and becomes coarser at upper altitudes. The retrieval errors resulting from the measurement noise are estimated to be 1–4 % above 25 km, increasing to 10–30 % in the upper troposphere. OMPS data are processed for the whole of 2016. The results are compared with the NASA product and validated against profiles derived from passive satellite observations or measured in situ by balloon-borne sondes. Between 20 and 60 km, OMPS ozone profiles typically agree with data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) v4.2 within 5–10 %, whereas in the lower altitude range the bias becomes larger, especially in the tropics. The comparison of OMPS profiles with ozonesonde measurements shows differences within ±5 % between 13 and 30 km at northern middle and high latitudes. At southern middle and high latitudes, an agreement within 5–7 % is also achieved in the same altitude range. An unexpected bias of approximately 10–20 % is detected in the lower tropical stratosphere. The processing of the 2013 data set using the same retrieval settings and its validation against ozonesondes reveals a much smaller bias; a possible reason for this behaviour is discussed.