Stratosphere-troposphere Coupling Research Articles

The tropical influence on sub‐seasonal predictability of wintertime stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling

AbstractA unique set of relaxation experiments with a forecast model initialized during December–January 1999–2019 is used to explore tropical influence on the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling, to quantify predictability benefits due to the perfect knowledge of the tropical variability. On average, predictability of the polar stratosphere, as represented by the 50 hPa geopotential height anomalies north of 50°N (Z50), increases from 17 days in freely running (control) forecasts to 21 days in the tropical relaxation experiments. At sub‐seasonal time‐scales, a statistically significant improvement in weekly mean skill scores can be demonstrated in 14%–20% of individual forecast ensembles, mostly in cases when the skill of the corresponding control forecast is worse than average. In these forecasts, root‐mean‐square errors and forecast spread of Z50 during forecast weeks 3–5 are decreased by 10%–15%. Stratospheric improvements are detected during periods of both vortex strengthening and vortex weakening, including most major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings that occurred during the study period, via modulation of the upward wave activity fluxes. An active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is found in most of these events with MJO phase 5–7 preceding vortex weakening and MJO phase 3–4 preceding vortex strengthening. Forecasts with improved stratospheric circulation also have improved tropospheric circulation during and after the periods when improvements are detected in the stratosphere. We attribute these improvements to both stratosphere–troposphere coupling and tropospheric tropical teleconnections.

The Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Subsequent Surface Impacts as Consequences to Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract This study investigates the stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss and subsequent near-surface impacts by analyzing 200-member coupled experiments using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) with preindustrial, present-day, and future sea ice conditions specified following the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The stratospheric polar vortex weakens significantly in response to the prescribed sea ice loss, with a larger response to greater ice loss (i.e., future minus preindustrial) than to smaller ice loss (i.e., future minus present-day). Following the weakening of the stratospheric circulation in early boreal winter, the coupled stratosphere–troposphere response to ice loss strengthens in late winter and early spring, projecting onto a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the lower troposphere. To investigate whether the stratospheric response to sea ice loss and subsequent surface impacts depend on the background oceanic state, ensemble members are initialized by a combination of varying phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV). Different AMV and IPV states combined, indeed, can modulate the stratosphere–troposphere responses to sea ice loss, particularly in the North Atlantic sector. Similar experiments with another climate model show that, although strong sea ice forcing also leads to tighter stratosphere–troposphere coupling than weak sea ice forcing, the timing of the response differs from that in WACCM6. Our findings suggest that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the stratospheric circulation and subsequent tropospheric variability on seasonal time scales, but modulation by the background oceanic state and model dependence need to be taken into account. Significance Statement This study uses new-generation climate models to better understand the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on the surface climate in the midlatitudes, including North America, Europe, and Siberia. We focus on the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, which involves the weakening of stratospheric winds and its downward coupling into the troposphere. Our results show that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the surface climate in the midlatitudes via the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, and highlight the modulations from background mean oceanic states as well as model dependence.

How do different pathways connect the stratospheric polar vortex to its tropospheric precursors?

Abstract. Processes involving troposphere–stratosphere coupling have been identified as important contributors to an improved subseasonal to seasonal prediction in the mid-latitudes. However, atmosphere models still struggle to accurately predict stratospheric extreme events. Based on a novel approach in this study, we use ERA5 reanalysis data and ensemble simulations with the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmospheric model (ICON) to investigate tropospheric precursor patterns, localised troposphere–stratosphere coupling mechanisms, and the involved timescales of these processes in the Northern Hemisphere extended winter. We identify two precursor regions: mean sea level pressure in the Ural region is negatively correlated with the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex for the following 5–55 d with a maximum at 25–45 d, and the pressure in the extended Aleutian region is positively correlated with the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex the following 10–50 d with a maximum at 20–30 d. A simple precursor index based on the mean pressure difference of these two regions is very strongly linked to the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex in the following month. The pathways connecting these two regions to the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex, however, differ from one another. Whereas a vortex weakening can be connected to prior increased vertical planetary wave forcing due to high-pressure anomalies in the Ural region, the pathway for the extended Aleutian region is less straightforward. A low-pressure anomaly in this region can trigger a Pacific–North American-related (PNA-related) pattern, leading to geopotential anomalies of the opposite sign in the mid-troposphere over central North America. This positive geopotential anomaly travels upward and westward in time, directly penetrating into the stratosphere and thereby strengthening the stratospheric Aleutian High, a pattern linked to the displacement towards Eurasia and subsequent weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Overall, this study emphasises the importance of the time-resolved and zonally resolved picture for an in-depth understanding of troposphere–stratosphere coupling mechanisms. Additionally, it demonstrates that these coupling mechanisms are realistically reproduced by the global atmosphere model ICON.

Defining Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Intensification Events

AbstractUsing the ERA5 reanalysis data, we identify seven easily calculable indices of the strength of the Arctic stratospheric vortex: zonal winds at 10 hPa and temperature or height anomalies at 10 , 50, and 100 hPa. We then compare the climatological statistics and meteorological properties of strong and weak events based on these indices. We particularly consider the sensitivity of the event statistics to the choice of thresholds, the use of these indices in capturing stratosphere–troposphere coupling, and meteorological conditions relevant to chemical ozone depletion. The frequency, seasonal distribution, and interdecadal variability of strong events is more sensitive to threshold or index choice compared to weak events. Composites of polar‐cap geopotential height anomalies are found to differ significantly based on the choice of index. In particular, height‐based events reveal a strong and immediate barotropic response near the central date due to surface pressure fluctuations, making it more difficult to regard central dates of height‐based events as purely stratospheric in origin. We further characterize the relationship of all indices to conditions relevant to chemical ozone depletion, finding that temperature‐based indices in the lower stratosphere perform best. Finally, we present four dynamical benchmarks used to assess and compare the representation of strong events in climate models. Our results highlight the challenges in determining the optimal definition for strong events and emphasize the implications of different choices, providing valuable insights for guiding future studies in defining strong events.

Signature of the stratosphere–troposphere coupling on recent record-breaking Antarctic sea-ice anomalies

Abstract. In February 2023, the sea-ice extent around Antarctica dropped to 1.79×106 km2, setting a satellite-era record low for the second straight year. Recent records stress the need for further research into the factors behind record-breaking Antarctic sea-ice anomalies. By influencing the circumpolar westerly winds, the stratospheric polar vortex has played a major role in the Antarctic surface climate in recent decades. However, the footprint of the polar vortex variability in the year-to-year changes in the Antarctic sea-ice cover remains obscured. Here, we use satellite retrievals and reanalysis data to study the response of the sea-ice extent around Antarctica to changes in the polar vortex strength. We focus on the last 2 decades that saw sharp changes in the stratospheric zonal flow, the tropospheric westerly winds and the sea-ice cover (the latter climbed to record highs in 2013 and 2014 before dropping to record lows in 2017, 2022 and 2023). Our results suggest that this unprecedented interannual variability is noticeably influenced by the polar vortex dynamics. The signature of the stratosphere–troposphere coupling is apparent in recent records (highs and lows) in the sea-ice extent around Antarctica.

Stratosphere-troposphere coupling during stratospheric extremes in the 2022/23 winter

Using the ERA5 reanalysis, sea surface temperature, sea ice observations, and the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, the evolution of the stratospheric extreme circulation in the winter of 2022/2023 is explored. The stratospheric polar vortex was disturbed three times in the 2022/23 winter, contrasted with only one disturbance during the other three recent winters with an SSW. Possible favorable conditions for the strong stratospheric disturbances and their effects on stratospheric ozone, water vapor distribution, and near-surface temperature were examined. Around 7 December 2022 when a short but strong pulse of planetary wavenumber 2 appeared from the troposphere to stratosphere, a weakened and elongated stratospheric polar vortex formed at 10 hPa. This pulse is related to the intensifying Ural ridge and the deepening East Asian trough. After the first stratospheric disturbance, a large fraction of cold anomalies occurred in the Eurasian continent. A lagged impact after these stratospheric disturbances was observed as strong cold anomalies formed in North America from 13 to 23 December. On 28 January 2023, a minor SSW event occurred due to a displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong pulse of eddy heat flux contributed alternately by planetary wavenumber 1 and 2 showed a large accumulative effect on the stratospheric disturbance. However, the downward impact of this second disturbance was weak, and cold surges were not noticeable after this minor SSW. The third stratospheric disturbance this winter is a major displace-type SSW that occurred on 16 February 2023, and the total eddy heat flux primarily contributed by planetary wavenumber 1 increased rapidly. Following the major SSW, the North American continent was covered by large patches of strong cold anomalies until the end of March. During the three disturbances, the residual circulation correspondingly strengthened. The water vapor and ozone in the middle and lower layers of the polar stratosphere showed positive anomaly disturbances, especially after the major SSW onset. The unprecedented frequent stratospheric disturbances in winter 2022/23 were accompanied by severe loss of Barents-Laptev Sea ice and anomalously cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (La Niña), which have been reported to be conducive to the enhancement of planetary waves 1 and 2 respectively. Further, two weeks before the major SSW, existing MJO developed into phases 4–6, also contributing to the occurrence of major SSW.

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau on the coupling of the North Pacific–North Atlantic pressure systems

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts a profound influence on global climate change. In the boreal winter, the TP has a notable impact on the Asian winter monsoon. Nevertheless, the relationship between the TP and the climate of the remote Arctic region is not yet fully understood. The North Pacific and North Atlantic pressure systems exhibit dynamic linkages through the Aleutian Low–Icelandic Low seesaw in the boreal winter season. However, the extent to which large mountains, such as those in the TP, influence this coupling remains unclear. In this study, we conducted an orographically sensitive experiment using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6. The results obtained from the model indicate that the TP influences Arctic pressure anomalies specifically via the modulation of the Aleutian Low–Icelandic Low seesaw. Specifically, the TP favors the eastward extension of a pattern resembling the Pacific–North American pattern, achieved by enhancing the horizontally propagating wave trains originating from the eastern Pacific, thus establishing a clear Aleutian Low–Icelandic Low seesaw. In addition, the TP was a critical factor in the stratosphere–troposphere coupling as it facilitated the shift of the stratospheric polar vortex towards Eurasia in a poleward direction, potentially leading to the extension of the wave train emanating from the North Pacific across North America. These results suggest that the TP significantly contributes to Arctic climate variability. This influence is observed via the TP-mediated modulation of the teleconnection between the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

Impacts of April Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling on the South Asian Premonsoon Circulation

Abstract The premonsoon circulation over South Asia in May shows remarkable interannual variations, and it can modulate the onset of the Asian summer monsoon. The present study derives two dominant stratosphere–troposphere modes over the North Atlantic in April via applying principal component (PC) analysis to regional geopotential height during 1979–2015. Both of the modes reflect the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like circulation at the midtroposphere, but the circulation patterns and planetary wave activity between the two modes are quite different. The first mode represents a stratosphere–troposphere-coupled mode. Further analysis indicates that during the years with a positive phase of the first mode, the low-level anomalous southerlies over the northern Barents Sea (BS) lead to a reduction in local sea ice, which could persist into May through the ice-albedo feedback. The BS sea ice anomalies in May could generate a southeastward propagating Rossby wave train, producing an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the west of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. This anomalous anticyclone induces increases in local air temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, resulting in a strengthened premonsoon circulation. Given that prediction of the premonsoon circulation over South Asia remains a challenging issue, the stratosphere–troposphere-coupling modes in April provide another potential predictability source. On the other hand, ENSO has a significant effect on the South Asian premonsoon circulations in May, and can also lead to the NAO-like circulation by influencing atmospheric Rossby waves. Such an NAO-like circulation is closely related to the second mode.

Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling during Sudden Stratospheric Warmings with Different North Atlantic Jet Response

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme disruptions of the wintertime polar vortex that can alter the tropospheric weather for over 2 months. However, the reasons why only some SSWs have a tropospheric impact are not yet clear. This study analyses the tropospheric impact of SSWs over the Atlantic region as measured by the latitudinal displacement of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet following SSWs. We use reanalysis data for the period 1950–2020 to examine differences in the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation for SSWs with an equatorward (EQ) or a poleward (POLE) shift. Our results show a stronger and more persistent Northern Annular Mode (NAM) signal in the lower stratosphere for EQ than for POLE, beginning 2 weeks before the onset date. In the troposphere, we find precursory signals of the Atlantic jet behavior over Siberia, consistent with previous studies, and also over the central North Pacific and central Europe. In particular, our results suggest that the noncanonical poleward jet shift response to SSWs is in part modulated by circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific, and that these are in turn connected to the cold phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Further analysis of the enhanced predictability given by these precursors suggests that the sign of the lower-stratospheric NAM and the geopotential anomalies over the central North Pacific significantly affect the probability of having an EQ or POLE response of the Atlantic jet.

Evaluation of Processes Related to Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling in GEFSv12 Subseasonal Hindcasts

Abstract The representation of the stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes is evaluated in the subseasonal Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12), hindcasts. The GEFSv12 hindcasts develop systematic stratospheric biases with increasing lead time, including a too strong boreal wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. In the tropical stratosphere, the GEFSv12 winds and temperatures associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) tend to decay with lead time such that they underestimate the observed amplitudes; consistently, the QBO-associated mean meridional circulation is too weak. The hindcasts predict extreme polar vortex events (including sudden stratospheric warmings and vortex intensifications) about 13–14 days in advance, and extreme lower-stratospheric eddy heat flux events about 6–10 days in advance. However, GEFSv12’s ability to predict these events is likely affected by its zonal-mean circulation biases, which increases the rates of false alarms and missed detections. Nevertheless, GEFSv12 shows stratosphere–troposphere coupling relationships that agree well with reanalysis and other subseasonal forecast systems. For instance, GEFSv12 reproduces reanalysis relationships between polar vortex strength and the Northern Annular Mode in the troposphere. It also exhibits enhanced weeks 3–5 prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation index when initialized during strong and weak polar vortex states compared to neutral states. Furthermore, GEFSv12 shows significant differences in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitudes and enhanced MJO predictive skill in week 4 during easterly versus westerly QBO phases, though these results are sensitive to the level used to define the QBO. Our results provide a baseline from which future GEFS updates may be measured.

Interannual Variability of the Wintertime Asian–Bering–North American Teleconnection Linked to Eurasian Snow Cover and Maritime Continent Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract Recent studies propose that the Asian–Bering–North American (ABNA) teleconnection is a distinct atmospheric pattern that is related to Eurasian and North American winter climate besides the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern, while its origin remains elusive. This study investigates the interannual variability of the ABNA during the past 42 winters (1979–2020) and the associated prior surface boundary forcings. The ABNA explains coherent surface air temperature changes in northern Asia, eastern Siberia–Alaska, and eastern North America, even after removing the impacts of the PNA, the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the North Pacific Oscillation. Surface boundary conditions linked to the ABNA could be traced back to a Eurasian snow cover dipole pattern (ESCDP) and a Maritime Continent sea surface temperature anomaly (MCSST) in November. The ESCDP leads to a displacement of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex via troposphere–stratosphere coupling. The anomalous polar vortex propagates downward in the following winter and generates the tropospheric ABNA pattern. The MCSST induces a diabatic heating anomaly, which is associated with a tropical western Pacific precipitation anomaly (TWPP) in winter. The TWPP excites a poleward Rossby wave train that propagates across the North Pacific and directly strengthens the ABNA. The above physical processes can be well reproduced by a linear baroclinic model (LBM). Based on the ESCDP and MCSST predictors, an empirical model is established and shows a promising prediction skill of the ABNA during the hindcast period. This can provide a useful strategy for seasonal prediction of winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Significance Statement Extreme cold events have influenced both Asian and North American continents during the past decades, causing huge socioeconomic impacts. The Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection is found to be responsible for coherent changes of winter climate in these two continents besides the Pacific–North America pattern. Our results indicate that Eurasian snow cover and the Maritime Continent sea surface temperature are important sources of predictability for the Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection, and can be used to predict coherent and cross-continent variations of winter surface air temperature. We propose that the Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection and these two predictors should be included in operational monitoring and prediction systems, helping to improve the prediction skill of winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere continents.

The Stratosphere–Troposphere Oscillation as the Dominant Intraseasonal Coupling Mode between the Stratosphere and Troposphere

Abstract Changes in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can remarkably impact tropospheric circulation. Based on the diagnosis of reanalysis data, this study finds that the location shift rather than the strength change dominates the intraseasonal variability of SPV. Further analysis suggests that it couples well with the tropospheric circulation, forming an intraseasonal stratosphere–troposphere oscillation (STO). The STO shows periodic westward propagation throughout its life cycle and has a deep structure extending from the troposphere to the stratosphere. It reflects the movement of the SPV toward North America, then the North Pacific, Eurasia, and the North Atlantic, and causes significant changes in surface air temperature over North America and East Asia. The mechanism of the STO involves Rossby wave propagation between the troposphere and stratosphere and cross-scale interactions in the troposphere. Upward Rossby wave propagation from the troposphere over East Asia maintains the STO’s stratospheric component, and the reflection of these waves back to the troposphere contributes substantially to the STO’s tropospheric center over North America. Meanwhile, the linear and nonlinear processes explain the STO’s westward propagation in the troposphere, which facilities vertical wave propagation changes. The STO unifies the SPV shifts, the retrograding tropospheric disturbances, and the wave coupling processes into one framework and provides a holistic view for a better understanding of the intraseasonal stratosphere–troposphere coupling. Given its oscillating nature, time scale, and widespread surface response, the STO may be a potential source of predictability for the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Significance Statement Stratospheric circulation plays a vital role in influencing tropospheric weather and climate, but its variability and coupling with the troposphere have not been fully understood for the intraseasonal time scale. This study finds that the Northern Annular Mode is the leading mode of variability in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere stratosphere on time scales longer than 60 days, which reflects the changes in the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex. In contrast, the shift of the stratospheric polar vortex excels as the leading mode on time scales shorter than 60 days and is identified as a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation (STO) phenomenon. In the stratosphere, the STO is characterized by the shift of the polar vortex and rotates clockwise with time. In the troposphere, the STO is manifested as a large-scale westward-propagating circulation in the midlatitudes, with significant near-surface temperature anomalies across the continents. The formation of the STO is further attributed to the vertical and horizontal Rossby wave propagation. As STO is a periodic oscillation, it may serve as a potential predictability source for subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction.

Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss

Recent studies have suggested that deep Arctic warming, extending from the surface to the upper troposphere, could trigger mid-latitude atmospheric circulation changes, while shallow Arctic warming, confined in the lowermost troposphere, induces comparatively weak remote responses. The causes of Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming are less clear compared with near-surface warming. Here, we demonstrate a new dynamical mechanism responsible for the polar mid-to-upper tropospheric warming associated with Arctic sea-ice loss, using both reanalysis and model simulations. The Barents-Kara sea-ice loss enhances the upward propagating waves, leading to the wave convergence anomalies in the sub-polar lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. The consequent eddy feedback leads to clockwise residual overturning anomalies in the sub-polar upper and middle troposphere, accompanied by anomalous descent and consequent adiabatic warming in the Arctic mid-to-upper troposphere. The essential role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling for deep Arctic warming induced by sea-ice loss is confirmed by model simulations with stratospheric variability suppressed, in which only the Arctic lower troposphere is warmed in response to sea-ice loss. Our results suggest that a considerable part of the observed Arctic mid-to-upper warming is caused by a dynamical response to sea-ice loss, in which stratosphere-troposphere coupling plays a major role.

The impact of different CO2 and ODS levels on the mean state and variability of the springtime Arctic stratosphere

Rising greenhouse gases (GHG) and decreasing anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances (ODS) are the main drivers of the stratospheric climate evolution in the 21st century. However, the coupling between stratospheric composition, radiation and dynamics is subject to many uncertainties, which is partly because of the simplistic representation of ozone (O3) in many current climate models. Changes in ozone due to heterogeneous chemistry are known to be the largest during springtime in the Arctic, which is also a season with very active stratosphere–troposphere coupling. The focus of this study is to investigate the role of varying ozone levels driven by changing GHG and ODS for the Arctic polar cap stratosphere. We use two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models with ocean coupling in two configurations (prescribed ozone fields vs. interactive ozone chemistry) for three different scenarios: preindustrial conditions—1 × CO2, year 2000 conditions (peak anthropogenic ODS levels) and extreme future conditions—4 × CO2. Our results show that in the upper and middle stratosphere CO2 thermal cooling is the dominant effect determining the temperature response under 4 × CO2, and outweighs warming effects of ozone by about a factor of ten. In contrast, in the lower stratosphere, the effects of O3 warming and CO2 cooling under 4 × CO2 are largely offsetting each other. ODS driven variations in O3 affect both the temperature mean and variability, and are responsible for the tight springtime coupling between composition and dynamics under year 2000 conditions in comparison to simulations under 1 × CO2 or 4 × CO2.

Modulation by the QBO of the Relationship between the NAO and Northeast China Temperature in Late Winter

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has an in-phase relationship with surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Northeast China in late winter. The present study shows that such an NAO–SAT relationship becomes stronger during easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but is relatively weak during westerly phases. Observational evidence reveals that the modulation effect of the QBO on the NAO–SAT relationship over Northeast China is attributable to QBO-induced changes in the spatial structure of the NAO and associated stratosphere–troposphere coupling. During easterly QBO phases, the NAO has a strong connection with the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, facilitating a hemisphere-wide structure of the NAO and thus a downstream extension of NAO signal from the Euro–Atlantic sector toward Northeast Asia. During westerly QBO phases, however, the NAO has a limited connection with the stratospheric polar vortex. In this case, the NAO features a classically regional mode, with the signal in the SAT field mainly confined to the Euro-Atlantic sector. By examining historical simulations from six climate models participating in CMIP6 and including stratospheric processes, it is found that none of these models captures a significant difference in the spatial structure of the NAO and its connection with the stratospheric polar vortex between the easterly and westerly QBO phases in late winter. A key reason may be related to the poor performance of the models in simulating the Holton–Tan effect, which is critical for linking the QBO and NAO. Significance Statement The QBO is the dominant mode of equatorial stratospheric variability and important for seasonal forecasting. This study aims to better understand the surface influence of the QBO by examining the relationship between the NAO and temperature anomalies over China according to the phases of the QBO during boreal winter. Our results highlight the importance of the QBO in modulating the spatial structure and thus climate impact of the NAO via stratosphere–troposphere coupling in observations, while state-of-the-art climate models perform poorly in simulating the QBO-related stratosphere–troposphere coupling and thus the QBO–NAO connection. These findings have important implications for seasonal prediction and model development in the future.

Stratosphere–troposphere coupling enhances subseasonal predictability of Northern Eurasian cold spells

AbstractHere we explore the stratospheric influence on the predictability of Eurasian cold‐spell events using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble hindcasts obtained from the Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) archive. To isolate the stratospheric influence, we subsampled two groups of hindcasts according to the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex preceding the cold spells at the surface. The predicted probability of cold spells, defined as the lowest 10th percentile of weekly mean temperature anomalies over northern Eurasia (10° W–130° E and 50° N–65° N), is systematically higher, by 0.05–0.2, at lags 7–24 days in the forecasts initialized during the weak stratospheric vortex compared to the strong stratospheric vortex group, extending the predictability of cold spells by 3–5 days. Our results suggest that, in the case of the weak polar vortex, stratosphere–troposphere coupling favors the negative Northern Annular Mode (NAM) regime and the cold‐air outbreaks in Eurasia. As a consequence, the long stratospheric predictability extends the predictability of the cold spells. On the other hand, when the polar vortex is strong, the stratospheric anomalies do not favor the observed negative NAM regime, which thus results from the internal tropospheric processes only. In this case the predictability of cold‐air spells is limited. Furthermore, we show that the extended predictability of cold spells arising from the stratosphere–troposphere coupling is captured by a simple statistical model, suggesting that governing large‐scale dynamics behave effectively linearly over some limited periods. Quantified contribution of the stratosphere–troposphere coupling to the enhanced skill of the extended‐range cold‐spell forecasts documented in our paper may prove useful in the development of forecasting tools.

The Effect of Solar Activity on Stratospheric Temperature Over Iraq for Period 1948-2014

Stratospheric temperature changes are very important for climate systems through atmospheric circulation and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The relationship between solar modulation potential SMP as a measure of solar activity and variation of temperature in upper, middle and lower stratosphere over Iraq for the period 1948-2014 (for about five solar cycles) has been presented in this study. For upper, middle and lower stratosphere we found that stratospheric temperatures decreased, this descending trend is offset by obviously descending trend in solar activity for the same period. The correlation coefficients between annual solar modulation potential SMP and stratospheric temperature have been examined at pressure levels (10,20,30,50,70 mb) that represent the upper, middle and lower stratosphere over 67 years (1948 to 2014). All levels have positive correlation. The correlation coefficient (R) in upper stratosphere at level 10 mb has been 0.4, in middle stratosphere at level (20, 30 mb) the correlation coefficient (R) has been 5.3 and 0.6 respectively. For lower stratosphere at level (50, 70 mb) R has been 0.57 and 0.68 respectively.

A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future

Abstract. We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance for different timescales to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological fields. We have used the new ozone model to provide prognostic ozone in medium-range and long-range (seasonal) experiments, showing the feasibility of this ozone scheme for a seamless numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling approach. We find that the stratospheric ozone distribution provided by the new scheme in ECMWF forecast experiments is in very good agreement with observations, even for unusual meteorological conditions such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) and Antarctic polar vortex events like the vortex split of year 2002. To assess the impact it has on meteorological variables, we have performed experiments in which the prognostic ozone is interactive with radiation. The new scheme provides a realistic ozone field able to improve the description of the stratosphere in the ECMWF system, as we find clear reductions of biases in the stratospheric forecast temperature. The seasonality of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex is also significantly improved when using the new ozone model. In medium-range simulations we also find improvements in high-latitude tropospheric winds during the SSW event considered in this study. In long-range simulations, the use of the new ozone model leads to an increase in the correlation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with respect to ERA-Interim and an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio over the North Atlantic sector. In our study we show that by improving the description of the stratospheric ozone in the ECMWF system, the stratosphere–troposphere coupling improves. This highlights the potential benefits of this new ozone model to exploit stratospheric sources of predictability and improve weather predictions over Europe on a range of timescales.

Editorial: Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and its Role in Surface Weather Predictability

Editorial: Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and its Role in Surface Weather Predictability

ТЕМПЕРАТУРНЫЙ РЕЖИМ Г. МУРМАНСК ЗА ПОСЛЕДНИЕ 70 ЛЕТ: ИЗМЕНЧИВОСТЬ И ЭКСТРЕМАЛЬНЫЕ СОБЫТИЯ

Extreme temperature events and their long-term variability are investigated using daily air temperature data from Murmansk weather station for the period of 1942-2018. It was found that the variability of extremely warm and cold events in Murmansk in winter is mainly explained rather by the dynamics of storm tracks than by the local processes of air mass transformation in the region. It is shown that the main characteristics of extreme events demonstrate a clearly pronounced seasonality. It was revealed that the positive trend in seasonal mean temperatures is mainly due to the reduced number of extremely cold events in Murmansk. The study shows that the leading factor determining the variability of extreme events is the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In turn, the AO anomalies are formed as a result of the dynamic stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which is expressed in the response of storm tracks to sudden stratospheric warmings.