Strategy Choice Model Research Articles

North Korea’s choice of a nuclear strategy: a dynamic approach

ABSTRACT This study presents an analytical framework for predicting the conditions under which North Korea would choose a particular nuclear strategy. Based on the assessment of North Korea’s strategic environment, which involves its national identity and interests, strategic goals, relations with allies, and military capabilities, the nuclear strategy choice model presented in this study explains how North Korea’s beliefs about its relative capabilities vis-à-vis the US and South Korea determine its strategy regarding the employment of nuclear weapons. As such, this study represents a necessary extension of the prior literature, which has focused on static theories concerning North Korea’s nuclear strategy. This study concludes by offering policy recommendations for dealing with a nuclear-armed North Korea.

A model of policing strategy choice

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a method for the discovery of knowledge in emergency response databases based on police incident reports, generating information that identifies local criminal demands that allow the selection of the appropriate policing strategies portfolio to solve the problem.Design/methodology/approachThe developed model uses a methodology for the discovery of knowledge involving text mining techniques using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) integrated with the ELECTRE I multicriteria method.FindingsThe developed method allowed the identification of the most common criminal demands that occurred from January 1 to December 31, 2016, in the policing areas studied. One of the crimes does not occur homogeneously in a particular locality. In this study, it was initially observed that 40 per cent of the crimes identified in the Integrated Public Safety Area 5, or AISP-5, (historical city center of RJ) had no correlation with AISP-19 (Copacabana - RJ), and 33 per cent of crimes crimes in AISP-19 were not identified in AISP-5. This finding guided the second part of the method that sought to identify which portfolio of policing strategies would be most appropriate for the identified demands. In this sense, using the ELECTRE I method, eight different scenarios were constructed where it can be identified that for each specific criminal demand set there is a set of policing strategies to be applied.Research limitations/implicationsThe collected data represent the social dynamics of neighbourhoods in the central and southern zones of the city of Rio de Janeiro during the specific period from January 2013 to December 2016. This limitation implies that the results cannot be generalised to areas with different characteristics.Practical implicationsThe developed methodology contributes in a complementary way to the identification of criminal practices and their characteristics based on reports of police occurrences stored in emergency response databases. The knowledge generated through the identification of criminal demands allows law enforcement decision makers to evaluate and choose among the available policing strategies, which best suit the reality they study, and produce the reduction of criminal indices.Social implicationsIt is possible to infer that by choosing appropriate strategies to combat local crime, the proposed model will increase the population’s sense of safety through an effective reduction in crime.Originality/valueThe originality of the study lies in the integration of text mining techniques, LDA and the ELECTRE I method for detecting crime in a given location based on crime reports stored in emergency response databases, enabling identification and choice, from customized policing strategies to particular criminal demands.

Individual Differences in Addition Strategy Choice: A Psychometric Evaluation.

The Strategy Choice Model (SCM) is a highly influential theory of human problem-solving. One strength of this theory is the allowance for both item and person variance to contribute to problem-solving outcomes, but this central tenet of the model has not been empirically tested. Explanatory Item Response Theory (EIRT) provides an ideal approach to testing this core feature of SCM, as it allows for simultaneous estimation of both item and person effects on problem-solving outcomes. We used EIRT to test and confirm this central tenet of the SCM for adolescents' (n = 376) solving of addition problems. The approach also allowed us to identify the strategy choices of adolescents who still struggle with basic arithmetic. The synthesis of SCM theory and EIRT modeling has implications for more fully investigating the sources of individual differences in students' problem solving, and for identifying problem-solving patterns associated with poor academic achievement.

Academic leaders’ response to the volatility of higher education: the influence of institutional logics

ABSTRACT The purpose of this research was to articulate the pressures faced by USA higher education leaders lived experiences and the relationship to problem definition, attention focus, and strategy choice. A conceptual Model of Strategy Choice by Higher Education Leaders is proposed to capture the dynamics between exogenous pressures and problems and leaders’ choice of strategy, and decision-making. The model addresses two social processes (sense-making and decision-making) associated with reproducing and altering institutional logics. The findings highlight distinctions between conventional, pre-transformative, and transformative leadership thinking and their association with different dimensions of problem definition, organizational learning, and strategy choice.

Methodical approach the ground of staff potential development strategy choice of trade enterprise

We present the scientifically-methodical approach the ground of staff potential development strategy choice of trade enterprise, that envisages the use of three-dimensional model of strategy choice and diagnostic matrix, that allows to get the corresponding strategic profile of staff potential at correlation a «life cycle phase –stage of development –development level» and to determine position of enterprise at the development level of its staff potential

The Comparison of Product and Corporate Branding Strategy: a conceptual framework

Brand has been a part of almost every company, especially a big one that exists nowadays. Managers need to carefully consider the customer and other stakeholder meanings associated with their branding efforts to make appropriate marketing decisions. Today in competitive world, brand is considered one of the strategic organizational assets. Management of this valuable asset need to strategic thinking and position it in the whole of organization. Therefore, organizations must decide about product or corporate branding. Submit of comparison table of differences between corporate and product branding strategy and conceptual model of branding strategy choice by multi business firms from developed economies entering to emerging or developing markets is the main participation of this paper. In the others sections of this paper, we address branding, product and corporate branding, synergies between product and corporate branding, similarities and differences between corporate and product branding, branding functions and branding strategy.

Children's use of addition to solve two‐digit subtraction problems

Subtraction problems of the type M-S=? can be solved with various mental calculation strategies. We investigated fourth- to sixth-graders' use of the subtraction by addition strategy, first by fitting regression models to the reaction times of 32 two-digit subtractions. These models represented three different strategy use patterns: the use of direct subtraction, subtraction by addition, and switching between the two strategies based on the magnitude of the subtrahend. Additionally, we compared performance on problems presented in two presentation formats, i.e., a subtraction format (81-37=.) and an addition format (37+.=81). Both methods converged to the conclusion that children of all three grades switched between direct subtraction and subtraction by addition based on the combination of two features of the subtrahend: If the subtrahend was smaller than the difference, direct subtraction was the dominant strategy; if the subtrahend was larger than the difference, subtraction by addition was mainly used. However, this performance pattern was only observed when the numerical distance between subtrahend and difference was large. These findings indicate that theoretical models of children's strategy choices in subtraction should include the nature of the subtrahend as an important factor in strategy selection.

Sequential Difficulty Effects During Strategy Execution

In two experiments, we tested the hypothesis that strategy performance on a given trial is influenced by the difficulty of the strategy executed on the immediately preceding trial, an effect that we call strategy sequential difficulty effect. Participants’ task was to provide approximate sums to two-digit addition problems by using cued rounding strategies. Results showed that performance was poorer after a difficult strategy than after an easy strategy. Our results have important theoretical and empirical implications for computational models of strategy choices and for furthering our understanding of strategic variations in arithmetic as well as in human cognition in general.

Adults’ use of subtraction by addition

The present study investigates adults’ use of addition to solve two-digit subtractions. Inspired by research on single-digit arithmetic, we first examined regression models in which different problem characteristics predicted participants’ reaction times. Second, we compared performance on two-digit subtractions presented in 2 presentation formats, i.e., the standard subtraction format (81–37=.) and an addition format (37+.=81). Both methods lead to the conclusion that the participants switched between direct subtraction and subtraction by addition depending on the relative size of the subtrahend: If the subtrahend was smaller than the difference, direct subtraction was mainly used; if the subtrahend was larger than the difference, subtraction by addition was the dominant strategy. However, this performance pattern was only observed when the distance between the subtrahend and the difference was large; when the subtrahend and the difference were close to each other, there was no subtrahend-dependent selection of direct subtraction vs. subtraction by addition. These data indicate that theoretical models of people's strategy choices in subtraction should include the relative size of the subtrahend as an important factor in the strategy selection process.

Instruction and load effects on high-skill and low-skill individuals: A study in the domain of mental arithmetic

What happens when people are asked to respond as quickly or as accurately as possible? This study tested the effects of speed/accuracy instructions and working-memory load on people's strategy efficiency and strategy selection. Adult participants solved simple addition problems (Experiment 1) and simple multiplication problems (Experiment 2) under load and no-load conditions and provided trial-by-trial strategy reports. High-skill participants were more efficient than low-skill participants, but the underlying causes of these skill-related effects differed across experiments. In the addition experiment, high-skill participants responded adaptively to the changing situations by changing their strategy choices, which resulted in smaller effects on their actual performance. Low-skill participants in contrast, did not change their strategy choices as adaptively, which resulted in less efficient performance—and especially so under load conditions. In the multiplication experiment, high-skill and low-skill participants differed in strategy efficiencies rather than in strategy choices. In the discussion, the results are further interpreted and future adaptations for the adaptive strategy choice model (ASCM; Siegler & Jenkins, 1989) are suggested.

Strategy switch costs in arithmetic problem solving

Three experiments tested whether switching between strategies involves a cost. In three experiments, participants had to give approximate products to two-digit multiplication problems (e.g., 47 x 76). They were told which strategy to use (Experiments 1 and 2) or could choose among strategies (Experiment 3). The participants showed poorer performance when they used different strategies on two consecutive trials than when they used the same strategy. They also used the same strategy over two consecutive problems more often than they used different strategies. These effects, termed strategy switch costs, were found when the participants executed the easiest strategy and when they solved easy problems. We discuss possible processes underlying these strategy switch costs and the implications of these strategy switch costs for models of strategy choices.

Jump or compensate? Strategy flexibility in the number domain up to 100

This study investigates elementary school children’s flexible use of mental calculation strategies on additions and subtractions in the number domain 20–100. Sixty third-graders of three different mathematical achievement levels individually solved a series of 2-digit additions and subtractions in one choice and two no-choice conditions. In the choice condition, children could choose between the compensation (56 + 29 = ?; 56 + 30 = 86, 86 − 1 = 85) and jump strategy (56 + 29 = ?; 56 + 20 = 76, 76 + 9 = 85) on each item. In the two no-choice conditions, children had to solve each item with either the compensation or the jump strategy. The results demonstrated that children of all achievement levels spontaneously applied both the compensation and the jump strategy to solve the items from the choice condition. Furthermore, they all executed the compensation strategy equally accurately, but faster than the jump strategy in the no-choice conditions. Finally, children neither took into account the expected task nor individual strategy efficiency characteristics during the strategy choice process. Results are discussed in terms of recent models of adaptive strategy choices and instructional practices in the number domain 20–100.

Cultural differences in complex addition: Efficient Chinese versus adaptive Belgians and Canadians.

In the present study, the authors tested the effects of working-memory load on math problem solving in 3 different cultures: Flemish-speaking Belgians, English-speaking Canadians, and Chinese-speaking Chinese currently living in Canada. Participants solved complex addition problems (e.g., 58 + 76) in no-load and working-memory load conditions, in which either the central executive or the phonological loop was loaded. The authors used the choice/no-choice method to obtain unbiased measures of strategy selection and strategy efficiency. The Chinese participants were faster than the Belgians, who were faster and more accurate than the Canadians. The Chinese also required fewer working-memory resources than did the Belgians and Canadians. However, the Chinese chose less adaptively from the available strategies than did the Belgians and Canadians. These cultural differences in math problem solving are likely the result of different instructional approaches during elementary school (practice and training in Asian countries vs. exploration and flexibility in non-Asian countries), differences in the number language, and informal cultural norms and standards. The relevance of being adaptive is discussed as well as the implications of the results in regards to the strategy choice and discovery simulation model of strategy selection (J. Shrager & R. S. Siegler, 1998).

Distributional and Encompassing Coalitions in the Olsonian Theory of Interest Groups: A Strategy–Shift Effect Analysis

This paper shows that, in an Olsonian framework, the activity of encompassing groups respect to distributional coalitions has been understated in the literature. We derive this conclusion analyzing first of all the evolution of the Olsonian thought, then some of the theoretical findings that weaken die extreme dilemmatic vision of a collective action problem. Then we present a simple model of strategy choice, where distributional coalitions temporarily become encompassing groups or are ‘locked’ in a distributional strategy, unless a change in both the share of total wealth and members’ number occurs. Some implications and explanations in terms of political reform success and stickiness follow.

Variable Memory Strategy Use in Children’s Adaptive Intratask Learning Behavior: Developmental Changes and Working Memory Influences in Free Recall

Variability in strategy use within single trials in free recall was analyzed longitudinally from second to fourth grades (ages 8-10 years). To control for practice effects another sample of fourth graders was included (age 10 years). Video analyses revealed that children employed different strategies when preparing for free recall. A gradual shift from labeling to cumulative rehearsal was present both with increasing age and across different list positions. Whereas cumulative rehearsal was frequent at early list positions, labeling was dominant at later list portions. Working memory capacity predicted the extent of cumulative rehearsal usage, which became more efficient with increasing age. Results are discussed in the context of the adaptive strategy choice model.

Modeling Competitive Strategy Choice and Cognitive Learning Dynamics

Many problem contexts give rise to competitive decision situations in which players must make repeated decisions along with or in response to competitors' decisions. Choice models used in transportation generally assume that trip makers make decisions independently. Auction-based electronic marketplaces for freight service procurement are an example of such environments, and they provide the motivating application con-text for the models presented in this paper. The specific focus is on the decisions of carriers as bidders for the loads tendered by shippers in spot market situations. The paper considers the player's choice of strategy of how much to bid in an auction-based marketplace with repeated auctions involving the same set of players. A dynamic strategy choice model structure is formulated, with alternative specifications corresponding to different levels of cognition capacity. The model is intended to describe how a player or agent in a noncooperative game with no perfect information and bounded rationality chooses a bidding strategy. The paper addresses econometric issues that arise in estimating such models given a time series of auction bids and outcomes, and it formulates error structures appropriate to the highly interactive, dynamic nature of competitive auction-based marketplaces. Estimation results are presented for data obtained from hypothetical experiments designed to illustrate the model structure and alternative specifications.

The Application and Developmentof an Addition Goal Sketch

A schema based view of addition development is compared with Siegler's latest strategy-choice model, which includes an addition goal sketch (a basic understanding of "the goals and causal relations" of addition; Siegler & Crowley, 1994, p. 196). This metacognitive component in the latter model is presumed to develop as a child practices a basic counting based procedure for calculating sums and to subsequently affect strategy choice by identifying correct and incorrect procedures. A study of 20 kindergartners was undertaken to examine key assumptions of this model. Participants were individually interviewed to determine their own procedure use and their ability to evaluate correct and incorrect procedures. The results did not support a central prediction of the strategy-choice model—that children who possess a goal sketch should recognize as correct a relatively advanced (counting-on) procedure they themselves do not use. These results are consistent with the schema based view that accurately evaluating or learning such advanced procedures requires a qualitative leap in conceptual development. Theoretical, methodological, and instructional implications include a case for a simulation that models assimilation (a cognitive process underlying developmental readiness and conceptual development), a conceptually based taxonomy of addition development, and a nuanced instructional theory of addition (i.e., one that goes beyond the direct instruction vs. discovery learning debate).

Children’s use of multiple and variable addition strategies in a game context

Developmental and contextual effects on children’s addition strategies were assessed in preschool, kindergarten and first‐grade children’s strategy use while playing a board game (‘Chutes and Ladders’), using one or two dice to compute moves. Children of all ages displayed multiple‐ and variable‐strategy use, and there was a progression toward more sophisticated strategy use with age. Different patterns of strategy use in the two‐dice condition were observed as a function of whether children began the game with one versus two dice and for children who could recognize (as opposed to having to count) die roles of ‘5’ and ‘6’ in the one‐die condition. An examination of latencies indicated that more noncounting (start‐up) time was required to execute the MIN than the SUM strategy. Children showed significantly greater speed and accuracy when adding numbers during the game than in the math problems that followed. The findings reflect young children’s flexible use of strategies and extend Siegler’s adaptive strategy choice model to the development of simple addition strategies in an everyday context.

Adults' strategy choices for simple addition: effects of retrieval interference.

Simple addition (e.g., 3 + 2, 7 + 9) may be performed by direct memory retrieval or by such procedures as counting or transformation. The distribution of associations (DOA) model of strategy choice (Siegler, 1988) predicts that procedure use should increase as retrieval interference increases. To test this, 100 undergraduates performed simple addition problems, either after blocks of simple multiplication (high-interference context) or after blocks of simple division problems (low-interference context). Addition took longer and was more error prone after multiplication; in particular, there were more multiplication confusion errors on the relatively easy, small-number addition problems (e.g., 3 + 2 = 6, 4 + 3 = 12), but not on the more difficult, large-number additions. Consistent with the DOA, participants reported greater use of procedures for addition after multiplication, but more so for small addition problems. The findings demonstrate that adults' use of procedural strategies for simple addition is substantially influenced by retrieval interference.

Individual solution processes while solving addition and multiplication math facts in adults.

Contrary to predictions of current solution process models, adults used a variety of procedures other than retrieval to solve addition and multiplication math facts. Predictors assumed to capture retrieval processes posited by such models did account for a substantial proportion of variance in averaged retrieval solution times. But most of the variance in individual participants' retrieval times remained unaccounted for. Cross-operation associations in patterns of strategy use and retrieval latencies were obtained. Adults with stronger higher level math achievement were more likely to use retrieval, solved math facts faster and less variably, and executed retrieval processes posited by current solution process models faster than participants with less math attainment. The results are explained within the context of the adaptive strategy choice model.