Strategic Energy Resources Research Articles

Crude Oil Price Bubble Identification and Risk Assessment From Different Spot Markets: Establishing a Sustainable Energy Policy

Crude oil, as a strategic energy resource for social development, has witnessed substantial price fluctuations in recent years, impacting the sustainability of economy, ecological environment, and energy security. This paper utilized weekly crude oil price data from January 2003 to March 2023 to examine price bubbles in different markets using the SADF and GSADF methods, identified the duration of price bubbles by comparing the BSADF series with critical value series, assessed the risk of price bubbles in different markets using the established comprehensive indicators, and explored sustainable energy policies from the perspectives of both crude oil importers and exporters. The findings of this study indicate that bubbles exist in the world’s major crude oil markets, with linkages and differences in their origin and termination across different markets. The risk of price bubbles varies widely across different crude oil markets and has significant geographical characteristics, with a higher risk in the markets such as OPEC, Oman, and Dubai, and a lower risk in the markets such as WTI, Brent, and Daqing. This paper proposes sustainable energy policies from the perspective of energy importers and exporters. This is of great importance to enhance the ability of different countries to cope with the risk of crude oil price bubbles and to ensure the sustainability of economic development, ecological environment, and energy security.

The Role of Energy in Türkiye-Russia Relations: A View from the Perspective of Mutual Dependence

Policies focusing on strategic energy resources play a key role in achieving certain goals of states by integrating them with other areas. Energy, in particular, has strategic importance and is one of the most critical issues in this context. Considering the opportunities and threats associated with strategic energy resources, the energy problem may be perceived as a chronic ailment that is difficult to solve for some states. It is also a fact that these resources increase the dependence of states. Energy is seen as a factor that forms the basis of interdependence in Turkish-Russian relations. With the increase in Türkiye’s energy needs, its energy relations with Russia have gained great importance in the 21st century. Russia, with its rich energy resources, plays an important role in Türkiye’s energy supply, and Türkiye is an important market for Russia’s energy exports. This study analyses the energy relations between Türkiye and Russia within the framework of interdependence theory. Despite the tensions in the political arena, energy relations have been and continue to be conducted according to the principle of interdependence. The study first introduces the interdependence theory and then analyses the energy policies and energy situation of both countries in detail. At the end of the study, the course of energy relations between Türkiye and Russia is analyzed, and a detailed evaluation is made.

Full implicit simulator of hydrate (FISH) and analysis on hydrate dissociation in porous media in the cubic hydrate simulator

Natural gas hydrate is a promising strategic energy resource in marine and permafrost sediments. To precisely characterize the coupled Thermal-Hydraulic-Chemical (THC) process in hydrate reservoirs, a bona fide mathematical model with improved key parameters is needed. We developed a Full Implicit Simulator of Hydrate (FISH), a three-phase, four-component mathematical model, to simulate gas recovery from hydrate reservoirs. The experiment of methane hydrate formation and dissociation under depressurization via a single vertical well was executed in the Cubic Hydrate Simulator (CHS). FISH was employed to reproduce the experiment of hydrate dissociation in quartz sands. This study successfully obtains unified parameters that are suitable for the entire hydrate dissociation process. Simulation results of gas and aqueous production profiles and the temperature distribution agreed well with that in the experiment. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the simulated volume of gas produced was 2.845%. The mass conservation in the pressure vessel was confirmed by both experimental data and numerical simulation results. This numerical simulator can be applied to predict the behavior of hydrate-bearing-sediments in the laboratory or to evaluate the gas production potential from the marine or permafrost hydrate reservoirs.

Research into Impact of Leaving Waste Rocks in the Mined-Out Space on the Geomechanical State of the Rock Mass Surrounding the Longwall Face

Backfilling technology is not always used by mining enterprises, which is conditioned by technological and economic factors, such as the need for high mining rates and costs for the technological processes of transporting backfill materials from the daylight surface to the mined-out space. This concerns the underground mining of hard coal, which is a strategic energy resource, in the mines of Ukraine. This paper aims to study the effect of leaving the waste bottom rocks in the mined-out space of the longwall face without their drawing to the earth’s surface on the geomechanical state of the rocks surrounding the longwall face. The geomechanical assessment of the stress state of the rock mass surrounding the longwall face, when leaving the waste rocks from the seam bottom rocks in the mined-out space, is performed by the finite element method using the Ansys software package. A geomechanical model has been developed and substantiated, which adequately reflects the mining-geological conditions for seam mining within the extraction site, the actual structure and properties of the coal-bearing rock stratum, the parameters of the longwall face and the modified powered support for the processes of leaving the rocks in the mined-out space. The values and patterns have been determined of the decrease in the stress intensity concentrations in the coal-bearing roof mass in the frontal bearing pressure zone and destressing zone with an increase in the ratio of the rock pack thickness to the extracting seam thickness. The relative indicators of the load on the powered support section and the lowering of its roof have been determined by the ratio of the thickness of the rock pack formed in the mined-out space to the extracting seam thickness. The proposed mining method is of significant commercial and research interest for owners of coal mines developing thin coal seams because environmental costs for placing waste on the surface are reduced, and the energy potential of coal is increased due to the separation of waste rocks from coal in underground conditions. The need for a cycle of beneficiation of mined mass is eliminated and the geomechanical conditions of coal mining processes are improved.

Study on the Mechanical Properties of Silty Clay Sediments with Nodular Hydrate Occurrence

Natural gas hydrates are a strategic energy resource in China. The China Geological Survey has discovered segregated hydrate mass formations under the seepage mechanism in the South China Sea through exploration, and gas hydrates occur in nodular, massive, and vein formations in silty clay sediment. Previous work has focused on the analysis of sediment mechanical properties with respect to the uniform distribution of natural gas hydrates in pore spaces, but the mechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments containing segregated hydrate masses are not well understood. Spherical hydrates are used to characterize nodular hydrates, a method is proposed for the preparation of sediment samples containing segregated hydrates masses, and a series of triaxial compression tests are carried out on the samples containing spherical hydrates with two kinds of particle sizes at a certain volume fraction. The paper presents triaxial stress–strain curves for the samples containing spherical hydrates. A model for predicting elastic modulus is established. The results present two distinct stages in the triaxial compression tests of silty clay sediments containing spherical hydrates; they also show that the elastic moduli predicted by the model are in good agreement with the experimental results when the model parameters are set at α = 0.5 and β = −0.21. These results provide fundamental mechanical parameters for the safety evaluation of strata containing segregated gas hydrates.

Ortadoğu’daki Siyasi Olayların Dinî Arka Planı

The Middle East has been a volatile region for over a century, due to occupations, wars, and acts of terrorism. Being a victim of terrorism and war, this region has been described as a swamp, particularly due to the intense propaganda of the mass media owned by global hegemony, which is the leading cause of the chaos in the area. The people of the region, who are to pay a price because of terrorism and violence, are thus equated with terrorism in others’ minds and are further victimized. This study explores the plight of the region by analysing the mentality of the parties to the conflict in the region. This is because if we consider the events only as a military struggle to control oil and other strategic energy resources, we could hardly find out the truth. We should bear in mind that the events in the Middle East involve a variety of actors and reasons that are difficult to explain from a single perspective. Furthermore, since instability and chaos in the region have been going on for years and completely independent factors are involved in the process, issues have become immensely complicated. Therefore, no matter what point of view we adopt to approach the events (political, economic, cultural, religious, etc.), it would not be hard to find a justification for the theory we suggest. Our study hardly disregards this fact. However, when we prudently consider the events in the Middle East, we can recognize that all the actors essentially legitimize themselves using religion, although political and socio-economic reasons are brought to the fore. In other words, all the parties responsible for the chaos basically act out of religious motives and establish their existence in the region for religious reasons, although they do not frankly admit it. Foremost among these actors comes the United States of America. In fact, while the USA owns various instruments that could be used, not only to end the chaos in the region but also to exploit the resources of the region through peaceful means, the reason why it does not opt for this is the existence of Protestant Evangelicals, who guide American politics to take sides in the political/social events in the Middle East. An examination of the attitude of the USA in the events in the Middle East and the policies it implements in the region would reveal that they exactly coincide with the eschatological goals of Evangelicals. Another major power that is involved in the political and social events in the region with an eschatological approach is the ideological Shia. This line of thinking (Imamate), which claims to be the sole heir of Prophet Muhammad, struggles to play an open or secret role in all regional events to shape the Middle East based on its own ideology. The third actor, which is the source of violence and chaos in the Middle East, is the Khārijite way of thinking that directly or indirectly legitimizes projects that the other two actors are trying to implement in this region, and historically, it has always supported terrorism in the lands of Islam. The Khārijite thought describes any interpretation or behaviour that runs counter to the Islamic life it has created and idealized as blasphemy. This article examines these three actors in terms of their objectives and their impacts on the events in the Middle East region. It also reveals the historical and theoretical foundations of how these three ideologies, which are religious madhabs/sects/communities in terms of their sources, assume an active role in the political events in the region. While analysing the issues, ideological interpretations are avoided; events are addressed in a meaningful and holistic way in terms of their causes and effects, not in a style that is disconnected from de facto reality.

Comparison of Propeller Turbine Performance Using Airfoil Blades and Without Airfoil

Electricity is a strategic energy resource and is very important for the livelihood of many people. The government has tried to free Indonesia from the electricity crisis and is trying to find alternative uses of new and renewable energy (EBT). The government has committed that NRE will continue to be developed to ensure energy security in Indonesia and meet the growing demand for electricity. The government has set a target of 23% share of clean energy in the national energy mix in 2025 and 31% in 2030 through the National Energy Policy (KEN) and the General National Energy Plan (RUEN). To succeed the government program is to take advantage of the potential energy sources that exist around people's residences. However, one of the obstacles is the remote location so that access is difficult. In addition, the village community lacks knowledge about microhydro technology. Therefore it is necessary to design a turbine that is not complicated to manufacture. The complexity is in the manufacture of turbine blades which must be aerodynamic and affect performance. Therefore, it is necessary to do research on turbine blades that are not aerodynamic and how they perform. This research was conducted experimentally using a propeller turbine and tested on 3 different types of blades, namely, in this study three types of blades were created and designed. The aerodynamic cross-section blade and the square cross-section blade with a thickness of 3 mm without curvature, the blade with a rectangular cross-sectionsquare with a thickness of 2 mm with curvature (camber). which is made of steel plate manufacture by welding. The turbine blade diameter used is 150 mm with a total of 4 blades.

Gas supersaturation and diffusion joint controlled CH4 nanobubble evolution during hydrate dissociation

Nanobubbles have attracted wide scientific attention due to their large number of potential applications in nanotechnology, and they are ubiquitous during natural gas hydrates (NGHs) mining which is one of the strategic energy resources. Molecular dynamic simulations were performed to investigate CH4 nanobubble characteristics during NGHs dissociation. The nucleation mechanism and evolution characteristics of nanobubbles vary with hydrate dissociation temperature. The higher the temperature, the earlier the bubble nucleation, the more small methane clusters are produced, and the more complex the evolution path of nanobubbles, the initial position of bubble nucleation is closer to the decomposition interface. The gas reservoir can provide another possibility for methane molecules to overcome solubility barriers to avoid the formation of nanobubbles at lower dissociation temperature. CH4 nanobubble evolution was found to be governed by the gas supersaturation and the diffusion of CH4 molecules. The self-diffusion coefficient of CH4 molecules near the decomposition interface area is small due to the adsorption effect of the incomplete cages, nanobubbles are more likely to form outside the adsorption zone where the CH4 diffusion coefficient is larger at a lower temperature. A direct proof of speeding up of hydrate dissociation by nanobubble growth was given. The acceleration of dissociation is later than nanobubble growth and the accumulation of nanobubbles on dissociation interface may have a negative influence. The new findings on nanobubble evolution may help design and optimize nanobubble formation techniques in nanotechnology and efficient gas hydrate production protocols.

Dissociation equilibrium height and friction coefficient in pipeline transportation of gas hydrate-bearing sediment particles

Compared with traditional fossil fuels, gas hydrates have vast reserves, cause little pollution, and are an essential strategic energy resource. Pipeline transportation is critical to realize the development and utilization of natural gas hydrate resources. The Eulerian multiphase flow model within the computational fluid dynamics software FLUENT was employed to calculate gas–liquid–solid flow, taking into account phase interactions, heat transfer, and collision among particles. Pipeline transportation of gas hydrate-bearing sediment (GHBS) particles was studied based on dimensional analysis and numerical simulation. First, the essential dimensionless numbers controlling multiphase flow and hydrate dissociation were deduced. Further, the obtained simulation results clearly indicate that when the system was in a stable state, there was a dissociation equilibrium height above which hydrate dissociated completely. The influences of the dimensionless numbers on the dissociation equilibrium height and friction coefficient in the pipe were determined, and power-law correlations for the dissociation equilibrium height and friction coefficient were obtained from the numerical data. Finally, an analytical expression of dissociation equilibrium height was derived by decoupling the solid–liquid flow and gas hydrate dissociation, and the validity of the power-law correlation for the dissociation equilibrium height was verified by the analytical expression.

A comprehensive review in natural gas hydraterecovery methods

<p indent=0mm>Natural gas hydrate is an ice-like compound composed of mainly methane molecules and water molecules under proper high pressure and low temperature, and is being studied as a strategic energy resource. This paper first introduces the research advance of reservoir formation and classification of hydrate formation, and then systematically summarizes the current methods and their applicable conditions for hydrate exploitation. A new concept i.e. mechanical-thermal hydrate recovery method is presented based on the geological-mechanical characteristics in China and the technological process and scientific principles were introduced and overiewed. Hydrate mining mainly involves four effects of heat conduction, phase change, seepage and stress change. Through the analysis of the four characteristic time, the problem is decoupled and the characteristics of the evolution of the physical quantities in the process of hydrate mining can be determined, which can provide theoretical guidance for the practical exploitation of hydrates. Finally, the research progress of field trial production is analyzed and the future research direction of hydrate mining is pointed out.

Life Cycle Assessment of a shale gas exploration and exploitation project in the province of Burgos, Spain

Natural gas (NG) from shale formations (or shale gas) is an unconventional energy resource whose potential environmental impacts are still not adequately assessed. Hence, this study performs a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of shale gas considering a gas well under appraisal in Burgos, Spain.An attributional model was developed, considering the NG pre-production and production phases in the system boundaries, considering 1 MJ of processed NG as a functional unit. Results were obtained through the CML-IA baseline method (developed by the Center of Environmental Science of Leiden University) and showed that well design, drilling and casing, hydraulic fracturing, NG production, gathering, and processing are critical processes.To better address the environmental impacts, a comparison with similar studies was carried out, as well as a sensitivity and an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The model was found to be particularly sensitive to water usage in hydraulic fracturing and to the number of workovers with hydraulic fracturing.Limited data availability for shale gas exploration still poses a challenge for an accurate LCA. Even though shale gas remains controversial, it still can be considered as a strategic energy resource, requiring a precautionary approach when considering its exploitation and exploration.

China and The Conflict in South Sudan: Security and Engagement

This paper offers a case study of Beijing’s involvement with South Sudan, illustrating the absence of Chinese presence at the community level. The mistrust of Chinese government and China’s National Oil Companies stems from Beijing’s longstanding and historic support of Khartoum government and tacit involvement in the second civil war that generated widespread grievances amongst local communities in South Sudan. Sino-Sudanese relations amongst other factors have been the drivers of the development of South Sudanese mistrust that became barriers for Beijing, impeding it form protecting its economic investments and political interests. Chinese engagement with non-governmental actors is critical to peace. If Beijing reaches out beyond governmental actors through more integration into South Sudan’s indigenous societies, it can help bring competing groups together. Why China should be interested in getting involved in South Sudan and jeopardize its long-held non-intervention doctrine? This piece tries to answer this question under Beijing’s current international image and competition with other rivalries in the area for securing oil and strategic energy resources in the African continent.

THEORETICAL AND APPLICABLE BASES OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF COAL INDUSTRY IN DEVELOPED ECONOMICS AS A MODEL OF STRATEGIC ENERGY RESOURCES

The article describes the role of coal in economic activity as an important type of strategic energy resources. The trends of its extraction and consumption in the world economy are outlined. The main problems of the development of the coal industry in different countries are highlighted and countries are classified according to the policy of coal mining and consumption.

Analiza zależności przyczynowych w ryzyku między rynkiem ropy naftowej a rynkami reprezentującymi inne klasy aktywów

Wraz z rosnącą zmiennością instrumentów finansowych, zwłaszcza kontraktów na ropę naftową będącą strategicznym surowcem energetycznym, pojawia się potrzeba objęcia rynków finansowych szerszym niż dotychczas spektrum analiz. Koncepcja przyczynowości w sensie Grangera w ryzyku stanowi jeden z możliwych kierunków analizy współzależności między rynkami finansowymi. Celem niniejszego opracowania jest zatem weryfikacja występowania zależności przyczynowych w ryzyku między kursem terminowym ropy naftowej a rynkami reprezentującymi inne klasy aktywów: akcje, obligacje, waluty. Wykorzystane dane dotyczą okresu od stycznia 2000 roku do stycznia 2015 roku. Wyniki przeprowadzonych analiz dostarczają argumentów potwierdzających istnienie związku przyczynowego między ceną ropy naftowej a notowaniami dziesięcioletnich obligacji japońskich. W odniesieniu do kursów walutowych występowanie zależności przyczynowych w ryzyku stwierdzono w przypadku tych walut, które kwotowane były w dolarach.

Integrasi Frame Work Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS) dalam Analisis Kematangan Implementasi Manajemen Risiko (Studi Kasus: PLTA Maninjau)

Indonesia electrical energy consumption growth that reached 9.2% per year requires every plant to always pursue consistent and sustainable improvement to be able to cope with the growth. Maninjau Hydropower is one of the assets of strategic energy resources to meet the electrical energy supply, especially for the southern Sumatera region. Risk management in Maninjau hydropower take place without any standard of measurement standards, so management and risk management actors do not have an overview and guide to improve the performance of the risk management activities. In this study, a standard measure used is to measure the level of maturity of the risk management implementation using the framework of the Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS) for Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). Measurements carried out for the realization of the value and the expected value of risk management implementation in Maninjau hydropower, as well as designing the evaluation chart implementation of risk management by integrating Key Risk Indicators (KRI) from the expected value. Based on the results of the measurements made, it was found that the actual implementation of risk management in Maninjau hydropower located on the third level (repeatable), while the implementation of the expectation value is found to be at the highest level (leadership), and the percentage achieving overall expectation value has reached 62%. The draft also raises the risk evaluation chart 15 Key Risk Indicators to be achieved by Maninjau hydropower to achieve the expected value at the leadership level.Keywords: Risk Management, RIMS for ERM, KRI

Uranium mining and production

The importance of uranium can be examined from several perspectives. First, natural uranium is a strategic energy resource because it is a key ingredient for the generation of nuclear power and, therefore, it can affect the energy security of a state. Second, natural uranium is also a raw material in relative abundance throughout the world, which can, through certain steps, be transformed into nuclear explosive devices. Thus, there is both an interest in the trade of uranium resources and a need for their regulatory control. The importance of uranium to the worldwide civilian nuclear industry means that its extraction and processing – the so-called front end of the nuclear fuel cycle – is of regulatory interest. Like ordinary metal mining, which is generally regulated within a country, uranium mining must also be considered from the more particular perspective of regulation and control, as part of the international nuclear law regime that is applied to the entire nuclear fuel cycle.

&#x0D; World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security

The imbalance between energy resource availability, demand, and production capacity, coupled with inherent economic and environmental uncertainties make strategic energy resources planning, management, and decision-making a challenging process. In this paper, a descriptive approach has been taken to synthesize the world’s energy portfolio and the global energy balance outlook in order to provide insights into the role of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in maintaining “stability” and “balance” of the world’s energy market. This synthesis illustrates that in the absence of stringent policies, i.e., if historical trends of the global energy production and consumption hold into the future, it is unlikely that non-conventional liquid fuels and renewable energy sources will play a dominant role in meeting global energy demand by 2030. This should be a source of major global concern as the world may be unprepared for an ultimate shift to other energy sources when the imminent peak oil production is reached. OPEC’s potential to impact the supply and price of oil could enable this organization to act as a facilitator or a barrier for energy transition policies, and to play a key role in the global energy security through cooperative or non-cooperative strategies. It is argued that, as the global energy portfolio becomes more balanced in the long run, OPEC may change its typical high oil price strategies to drive the market prices to lower equilibria, making alternative energy sources less competitive. Alternatively, OPEC can contribute to a cooperative portfolio management approach to help mitigate the gradually emerging energy crisis and global warming, facilitating a less turbulent energy transition path while there is time.

Prospects of India's Energy Quest in Africa: Insights from Sudan and Nigeria

India has embarked on a policy to balance its need for accessing strategic energy resources from the African continent with Africa's aspirations for greater skills and sustainable development. Sudan has turned out to be the gateway for India's energy quest in Africa. India's age-old ties with Sudan have been crucial in accessing oil from the country. New Delhi's close relations helped to assuage the initial hiccups; however conflict between the Sudanese government and that of Southern Sudan have created some problems. Similarly, in Nigeria while India's strong diplomatic ties may have paved the way for the entry of India's oil companies, change in government and rising insecurity have dimmed future prospects. With growing investments, India needs to develop a long-term strategy to deal with these emerging security threats while continuing to maintain strong relations with countries on the continent.

Neglected no longer: the Indian Ocean at the forefront of world geopolitics and global geostrategy

Since the end of the 1960s and the 1970s, the Indian Ocean and its bordering states have been of growing significance in world geopolitics and global geostrategy. It is a region of great diversity and contrasts in terms of politics, population, economy and environment, as well as being a complex geopolitical framework where foreign powers and local states' interests deeply intermingle. Since the end of the Cold War, the region has been in a period of great instability and regional rearrangement that is still ongoing today. Taking into account the significance of its strategic energy resources, the importance of its strategic shipping lanes, the ‘rise of India’ as a dominant regional player, the turbulences of the Islamic world, the deep and broad involvement of the United States (and its allies) in the region, as well as China's recent entry on the regional chessboard, there is no doubt that the Indian Ocean will remain on the forefront of world geopolitics in the coming decades and most probably for the entire twenty-first century.

Uranium Trade and its Security Implications for India

Uranium trade and the role it will play in India’s foreign policy and national security is set to grow in the coming decades. India’s interest in uranium is part of a long-term strategy to move towards a more self-sufficient and relatively carbon-free energy future. In the context of India’s fast-expanding uranium trade with, and equity investments in, key uranium producing countries, the contours of the security implications of India’s uranium diplomacy need to be identified. It is important to understand that the import of strategic energy resources is seldom devoid of security implications in one form or the other. Highlighting possible security implications can help strategise a uranium trade policy that is proactive, well informed and holistic in its understanding of what advantages and disadvantages uranium trade poses to the country’s larger energy security. This article identifies seven possible trajectories of the security implications of India’s uranium trade with the world in the coming years.