Storm Of December Research Articles

Mangrove freeze resistance and resilience across a tropical‐temperate transitional zone

Abstract Freeze events govern the distribution and structure of mangrove ecosystems, especially in tropical‐temperate transitional zones. Understanding mangrove responses to freezing is crucial for predicting their poleward expansion under climate change. However, there is a need for field‐based measurements of mangrove freeze resistance and resilience. After an extreme winter storm in December 2022, we measured mangrove post‐freeze damage and recovery (January and November 2023), building on a pre‐freeze baseline assessment conducted in July 2022 across 12 sites along the temperature gradient of Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast (USA). Low‐temperature thresholds for leaf damage to Avicennia germinans, Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa were quantified near −6, −4 and − 4°C, respectively. Thresholds for mortality were found to be near −6 to −7°C for A. germinans and −4 to −5°C for R. mangle. A threshold for loss of reproductivity in A. germinans was identified near −6 to −7°C. Resprouting was observed in all three species but limited to just one individual for R. mangle. Surviving A. germinans resprouted vigorously and had the greatest number of resprout branches, which was proportional to leaf damage. Tall A. germinans had a higher resprout percentage than short trees. Strata‐specific differences in freeze damage were most pronounced for R. mangle, with higher damage in tall versus short trees, while no difference was found between A. germinans strata. These results suggest that R. mangle population recovery may depend on the growth of short trees, while A. germinans can recover from all strata. Minimum air temperature was strongly correlated with mangrove height and above‐ground biomass. Projections of future minimum temperature and species‐specific freeze degree days predict warming winters, suggesting further mangrove development and range expansion under climate change. Synthesis: Collectively, our study advances understanding of mangrove responses to freezing and identifies low‐temperature thresholds for each species, aiding predictions of mangrove range expansion.

Interannual changes in nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS) predict the consequences of climate change; results from the Sdot-Yam Time-series station 2018–2022

Global climate change is predicted to reduce nutrient fluxes into the photic zone, particularly in tropical and subtropical ocean gyres, while the occasional major storms will result in increased nutrient pulses. In this study the nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics have been determined at a new time-series station in the southeastern Levantine basin of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS) over 4.5 years (2017–2022). In 2018 and 2019, there was a moderate concentration of residual nitrate and nitrite (N + N) in the photic zone (280–410 nM) in winter, resulting in phytoplankton dynamics dominated by cyanobacteria with relatively few picoeukaryotes (280 ± 90 μgC m−2). Winter storm driven mixing was much reduced in 2020 and particularly in 2021, resulting in a lower concentration of N + N in the photic zone, which decreased during summer stratification, such that by August 2021, the N + N was highly depleted (<60 nM) resulting in an integrated phytoplankton biomass of 23 μgC m−2. A major storm in December 2021 (Storm Carmel) injected high N + N (750 nM; max = 1090 nM) in the upper 100 m, which stimulated pico and nanophytoplankton biomass (∼2400 μgC m−2) and according to our inference increased eukaryotes (diatoms). The pattern of measured silica reinforced our conclusion that we sampled 3 different nutrient and ecosystem states. Phosphate was always at or close to limit of detection (LoD) because of rapid uptake by cyanobacteria into their periplasm. These results predict that climate change in the EMS will result in periods of nutrient and phytoplankton depletion (Famine) interrupted by short periods of Mesotrophy (Feast) caused by major storms.

Field-Aligned Currents during the Strong December 2023 Storm: Local Time and Hemispheric Differences

This study investigates field-aligned currents (FACs) during strong magnetic storms in December 2023, analyzing variations in different local times and in the Northern (NH) and Southern Hemispheres (SH). Peak FAC densities were approximately 7.8 times higher than nominal values, with the most equatorward FACs reaching −52° magnetic latitude (MLat). In the summer hemisphere, the daytime FACs were stronger than the nighttime FACs, with the daytime westward Polar Electrojet (PEJ) surpassing nighttime levels. In the winter hemisphere, the nighttime FACs and westward PEJ were stronger than daytime. Generally, the FACs and westward PEJ were stronger in the SH than in the NH across most local time sectors, attributed to greater solar illumination. The NH pre-midnight currents were stronger than for the SH, indicating enhanced substorm currents during winter nights. The nighttime FACs occurred at lower MLat than daytime, with pre-noon FACs at a higher MLat than post-noon. The NH FACs were positioned more equatorward than their SH counterparts. In the NH, the mean FACs correlated most strongly with the merging electric field (Em) at pre-noon, post-noon, and post-midnight and with the SMU (SuperMAG Electrojet Upper Index) at pre-midnight. In the SH, the mean FACs correlated best with the SMU at pre-midnight/pre-noon, with the SML (SuperMAG Electrojet Lower Index) at post-midnight, and Em at post-noon. The mean MLat of the peak FACs show the strongest correlation with Em across most local times and hemispheres.

The differential conjugate hemisphere ionospheric response during solstice storms and the winter side maxima

The hemispheric differences in the impact of the geomagnetic storms of June 2015 and December 2015 are investigated. A meridional chain of ground observatories along 95°E ± 10°E (conjugate point-GNSS receiver/Ionosonde), satellite in-situ measurements (SWARM/COSMIC/C-NOFS), and Total Electron Content maps are utilized. Symmetric negative (positive) effects were noted during the main phase of the June (December) storm but hemispheric asymmetry was manifested during the recovery phase. The quiet time hemispheric asymmetry was reversed during both storms with positive TEC effects on the winter side. Differential VTEC and NmF2 responses exhibited seasonal variation. On 23 June 2015, the VTEC enhancements in the southern low latitude were large and consistent in contrast to the weak response in NmF2. In contrast, during the December storm, the NmF2 depletion in southern low latitude was more severe than the corresponding depletion in VTEC. The topside density/TEC enhancement in the southern low latitude recorded by SWARM was much higher than 300 % during the morning of 23 June. The SWARM Ne/TEC profile as well as the ground GPS TEC map showed a third latitudinal maximum around −45° dip angle of field lines in southern low latitudes on 23 June, in addition to the conventional EIA crests. Similarly, an early morning maximum was recorded at + 45° dip (northern hemisphere) on 21 December. The hmF2 measured by the southern hemisphere ionosonde and COSMIC satellite showed an anomalously higher altitude of the F2-layer on 23 June while C/NOFS recorded equator-ward meridional flow velocity. The reversal of the hemispheric asymmetry and the additional storm time transient maximum on the winter side is attributed to the equator-ward winds surge in the winter hemisphere due to storm time heating of the polar region.

Current trends of dangerous winds frequency variation in the western sector of the Russian Arctic in winter-spring period

The current trends in interannual changes in the frequency of winds that pose a danger to navigation on shipping routes of the Barents and Kara Seas in the winter-spring months are identified in the paper. Winds are considered dangerous if their average hourly speed over the water surface exceeds 15 m/s. The factual material is based on information from the ERA5 global reanalysis. The research methodology involves the use of standard methods of mathematical statistics. Trends are assessed for the time periods of 2001–2021 and 2010–2021. The study has allowed us to identify the water areas of the Barents Sea, where in December, January, April and May, significant rising trends in the frequency of dangerous winds are presented. No similar trends during the months of the winter-spring navigation period are found in the water areas of the Kara Sea in the modern period. It has been established that in December storm risks exhibit rising trends on the waterways of the Barents Sea passing north of Cape Zhelaniya. At the same time, in the area of the Kara Strait and its approaches, the tendencies of changes in the frequency of dangerous winds are more favorable. In January, the wind regime in this strait, on the contrary, has a clear tendency to worsen. The persistence of the identified trends in the region under consideration in the future is not guaranteed. Therefore, further development of its observation network remains an urgent problem of hydrometeorological provision of navigation in the Barents and Kara seas.

The global response of terrestrial ionosphere to the December 2015 space weather event

This paper investigates the ionospheric storm of December 19–21, 2015, which was initiated by two successive CME eruptions that caused a G3 space weather event. We used the in situ electron density (Ne) and electron temperature (Te) and the Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements from SWARM-A satellite, as well as the O/N2 observations from TIMED/GUVI to study the ionospheric impact. The observations reveal the longitudinal and hemispherical differences in the ionospheric response to the storm event. A positive ionospheric storm was observed over the American, African and Asian regions on 20 December, and the next day showed a negative storm. Both these exhibited hemispheric differences. A positive storm was observed over the East Pacific region on 21 December. It is seen that the net effect of both the disturbance dynamo electric field and composition differences become important in explaining the observed variability in topside ionospheric densities. In addition, we also discuss the Te variations that occurred as a consequence of the space weather event.

Characteristic features of the magnetic and ionospheric storms of December 21—24, 2016

Characteristic features of the magnetic and ionospheric storms of December 21—24, 2016

The Role of Storm‐Time Electrodynamics in the Dawn and Dusk Sectors Across Equatorial and Low‐Latitude Ionosphere During December 19–21, 2015

AbstractWe present the distinct responses of the nighttime ionosphere due to an intense and long lasting geomagnetic storm of December 19–21, 2015 using a chain of ionosondes from magnetic equator to anomaly crest region over India. The observations exhibited unique features throughout the night including dawn and dusk sectors. The results showed twin episodes of pre‐reversal enhancement (PRE) in dusk sector associated with oscillatory vertical plasma drift due to shielding electric field that produced briefly post‐sunset equatorial spread F (ESF) irregularities. Accordingly, relative dominance of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and auroral electrojet (AE) related electric field fluctuations in vertical and zonal drifts at different times are investigated throughout the night. Also the application of wavelet/wavelet coherence analysis on interplanetary and geomagnetic conditions and ionospheric data showed distinct relationships. The results showed that vertical drift is in phase with interplanetary electric fields (IEFy) with period of ∼30 min at ∼18:30 IST (13:00 UT) that drives first PRE whereas ∼60 min period in AE which is in phase with vertical drifts drives second PRE at ∼20:30 IST (15:00 UT). However, other short term periods in vertical drifts are in phase with IEFy and AE at other times suggesting that both are contributing to the drift variations. The simultaneous upliftment of F layer at all stations producing fresh ESF irregularities in the dawn sector is attributed to the unique electrodynamical response of the Indian low latitude stations to the eastward disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEFs). These results are also in concomitant with satellite observations and thermospheric ionospheric electrodynamics general circulation model (TIE‐GCM) drifts.

How unprecedented was the February 2021 Texas cold snap?

Winter storm Uri brought severe cold to the southern United States in February 2021, causing a cascading failure of interdependent systems in Texas where infrastructure was not adequately prepared for such cold. In particular, the failure of interconnected energy systems restricted electricity supply just as demand for heating spiked, leaving millions of Texans without heat or electricity, many for several days. This motivates the question: did historical storms suggest that such temperatures were known to occur, and if so with what frequency? We compute a temperature-based proxy for heating demand and use this metric to answer the question ‘what would the aggregate demand for heating have been had historic cold snaps occurred with today’s population?’. We find that local temperatures and the inferred demand for heating per capita across the region served by the Texas Interconnection were more severe during a storm in December 1989 than during February 2021, and that cold snaps in 1951 and 1983 were nearly as severe. Given anticipated population growth, future storms may lead to even greater infrastructure failures if adaptive investments are not made. Further, electricity system managers should prepare for trends in electrification of heating to drive peak annual loads on the Texas Interconnection during severe winter storms.

Quantifying Event‐Specific Radial Diffusion Coefficients of Radiation Belt Electrons With the PPMLR‐MHD Simulation

AbstractUsing the global Lagrangian version of the piecewise parabolic method‐magnetohydrodynamic (PPMLR‐MHD) model, we simulate two consecutive storms in December 2015, a moderate storm on 14–15 December and a strong storm on 19–22 December, and calculate the radial diffusion coefficients (DLL) from the simulated ultralow frequency waves. We find that even though the strong storm leads to more enhanced Bz and Eφ power than the moderate storm, the two storms share in common a lot of features on the azimuthal mode structure and power spectrum of ultralow frequency waves. For both storms, the total Bz and Eφ power is better correlated with the solar wind dynamic pressure in the storm initial phase and more correlated with AE index in the recovery phase. Bz wave power is shown to be mostly distributed in low mode numbers, while Eφ power spreads over a wider range of modes. Furthermore, the Bz and Eφ power spectral densities are found to be higher at higher L regions, with a stronger L dependence in the Bz spectra. The estimated DLL based on MHD fields shows that inside the magnetopause, the contribution from electric fields is larger than or comparable to that from magnetic fields, and our event‐specific MHD‐based DLL can be smaller than some previous empirical DLL estimations by more than an order of magnitude. At last, by validating against in situ observations from Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft, our MHD results are found to generally well reproduce the total Bz fields and wave power for both storms, while the Eφ power is underestimated in the MHD simulations.

Where are Solar storm-induced whale strandings more likely to occur?

AbstractWhale strandings occur in many places worldwide and numerous possible explanations for this phenomenon have been proposed, including the effects of astronomical events such as Solar eruptions on the Earth's magnetic field. Whales use the geomagnetic field for navigation, and its distortion can therefore result in whale strandings in certain regions. However, Solar storms do not have the same impact on the geomagnetic field across the whole of the Earth's surface, and positions nearer to the equator are less exposed to this phenomenon. It is therefore plausible that Solar storms can explain whale strandings at high latitude at least, but not necessarily worldwide. This review considers strandings in relation to the geographical and geomagnetic properties of locations at higher latitudes and to changes in the magnetic field over recent centuries. It also focuses on a Solar storm in December 2015. These considerations suggest that navigation errors due to Solar storms are more likely to occur at higher latitudes, particularly in sea areas where the animals might subsequently swim into a geographic trap and become stranded. For sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), the southern Norwegian Sea in conjunction with the shallow North Sea represents such an area.

Spectra and Pitch-Angular Distributions of Relativistic Electrons Near the Outer Radiation Belt Maximum During the Magnetic Storm of December 19–22, 2015

Variations in the spectra and pitch-angle distribution of relativistic electrons are studied for the large magnetic storm on December 19–22, 2015, during which the position of the electron trapping boundary with an energy >100 keV was recorded inside the auroral oval according to the Meteor-M No. 2 satellite. The results of ECT-REPT observations in the RBSP/Van Allen Probes mission near the maximum of the newly formed belt are used. Changes in the spectra and pitch-angle distributions as a result of the development of individual substorms during the storm are considered. The results support effective particle acceleration at relatively short time scales (<6 h). The role of the adiabatic mechanism in the acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons is considered. Evidence has been obtained for the dominant role of processes at the latitudes of the auroral oval in the formation of the outer radiation belt.

Ionospheric disturbances over East Asia during intense December magnetic storms of 2006 and 2015: similarities and differences

Using data from ionosondes, located in East Asia, and total electron content maps, we have made a comparative analysis of ionospheric disturbances associated with the intense geomagnetic storms of December 14–16, 2006 and December 19–22, 2015. These storms had almost equal peak intensities (Dstmin=–162 and –155 nT), but different durations of the main phases (2.5 and 19 hr). At the beginning of both the storms, the region under study was located in the vicinity of the midnight meridian. Ionospheric responses to magnetic storms differed in: i) an increase in the F2-layer critical frequency at subauroral latitudes, caused by an increase in auroral precipitation, during the initial phase of the former storm and the absence of this effect in the latter; (ii) a sharp drop in the critical frequency in the evening hours of the main phase of the latter storm, caused by a shift of the main ionospheric trough to lower latitudes, and the absence of this effect during the former storm; (iii) generation of a short-term positive disturbance observed at subauroral latitudes only in the early recovery phase of the former storm after the negative ionospheric disturbance. During both the storms at middle latitudes there were positive disturbances and wave-like fluctuations of the critical frequency which increased in the vicinity of the dawn meridian. The main causes of the differences between the ionospheric storms are shown to be the differences between the initial conditions of the magnetosphere–ionosphere system and durations of the main phases of magnetic storms.

Ионосферные возмущения над Восточной Азией во время сильных декабрьских магнитных бурь 2006 и 2015 гг.: сходствo и различиe

Using data from ionosondes, located in East Asia, and total electron content maps, we have made a comparative analysis of ionospheric disturbances as-sociated with the intense geomagnetic storms of De-cember 14–16, 2006 and December 19–22, 2015. These storms had almost equal peak intensities (Dstmin=–162 and –155 nT), but different durations of the main phases (2.5 and 19 hr). At the beginning of both the storms, the region under study was located in the vicinity of the midnight meridian. Ionospheric re-sponses to magnetic storms differed in: i) an increase in the F2-layer critical frequency at subauroral latitudes, caused by an increase in auroral precipitation, during the initial phase of the former storm and the absence of this effect in the latter; (ii) a sharp drop in the critical frequency in the evening hours of the main phase of the latter storm, caused by a shift of the main ionospheric trough to lower latitudes, and the absence of this effect during the former storm; (iii) generation of a short-term positive disturbance observed at subauroral latitudes only in the early recovery phase of the former storm after the negative ionospheric disturbance. During both the storms at middle latitudes there were positive dis-turbances and wave-like fluctuations of the critical fre-quency which increased in the vicinity of the dawn me-ridian. The main causes of the differences between the ionospheric storms are shown to be the differences be-tween the initial conditions of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and durations of the main phases of magnetic storms.

Latitudinal variation of F-region ionospheric response during three strongest geomagnetic storms of 2015

The latitudinal ionospheric response of the three strongest geomagnetic storms of 2015 of the current solar cycle 24 during 16–19 March 2015, 21–24 June 2015 and 19–22 December 2015 is investigated using the total electron content data derived from a latitudinal chain of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers extending from 70°N to 70°S. The storm time perturbations of the ionosphere during main and recovery phase is presented by the GPS derived vertical total electron content (VTEC) data which is further supported by ionospheric F region critical frequency (foF2) and F region peak height (hmF2) data. We observed symmetrical hemispheric response of the ionosphere during the strongest 17th March (St. Patrick’s Day) storm whereas asymmetrical hemispheric response of the ionosphere during 22nd June and 20th December storm over the Asian-Australian sector. The observations are explained by the combined transport of background inter-hemispheric seasonal wind and storm time disturbed meridional wind and by the global thermospheric compositional variation [O/N2] data.

Patterns in Patient Access and Utilization of Online Medical Records: Analysis of MyChart

BackgroundElectronic patient portals provide a new method for sharing personal medical information with individual patients.ObjectiveOur aim was to review utilization patterns of the largest online patient portal in Canada's largest city.MethodsWe conducted a 4-year time-trend analysis of aggregated anonymous utilization data of the MyChart patient portal at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Ontario, Canada, from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2015. Prespecified analyses examined trends related to day (weekend vs weekday), season (July vs January), year (2012 vs 2015), and an extreme adverse weather event (ice storm of December 20-26, 2013). Primary endpoints included three measures of patient portal activity: registrations, logins, and pageviews.ResultsWe identified 32,325 patients who registered for a MyChart account during the study interval. Time-trend analysis showed no sign of attenuating registrations over time. Logins were frequent, averaged 734 total per day, and showed an increasing trend over time. Pageviews mirrored logins, averaged about 3029 total per day, and equated to about 5 pageviews during the average login. The most popular pageviews were clinical notes, followed by laboratory results and medical imaging reports. All measures of patient activity were lower on weekends compared to weekdays (P<.001) yet showed no significant changes related to seasons or extreme weather. No major security breach, malware attack, or software failure occurred during the study.ConclusionsOnline patient portals can provide a popular and reliable system for distributing personal medical information to active patients and may merit consideration for hospitals.

CEDAR‐GEM Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models in Predicting TEC During the 2006 December Storm Event

AbstractIn order to assess current modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on total electron content (TEC), we considered quantities such as TEC, TEC changes compared to quiet time values, and the maximum value of the TEC and TEC changes during a storm. We compared the quantities obtained from ionospheric models against ground‐based GPS TEC measurements during the 2006 AGU storm event (14–15 December 2006) in the selected eight longitude sectors. We used 15 simulations obtained from eight ionospheric models, including empirical, physics‐based, coupled ionosphere‐thermosphere, and data assimilation models. To quantitatively evaluate performance of the models in TEC prediction during the storm, we calculated skill scores such as RMS error, Normalized RMS error (NRMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum increase (Yield), and the difference between the modeled peak time and observed peak time. Furthermore, to investigate latitudinal dependence of the performance of the models, the skill scores were calculated for five latitude regions. Our study shows that RMSE of TEC and TEC changes of the model simulations range from about 3 TECU (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016el m−2) (in high latitudes) to about 13 TECU (in low latitudes), which is larger than latitudinal average GPS TEC error of about 2 TECU. Most model simulations predict TEC better than TEC changes in terms of NRMSE and the difference in peak time, while the opposite holds true in terms of Yield. Model performance strongly depends on the quantities considered, the type of metrics used, and the latitude considered.

Video monitoring of sandbar-shoreline response to an offshore submerged structure at a microtidal beach

In early 2013, an 800-m long and 12-m wide submerged breakwater with its crest in 2-m depth was implemented at the wave-dominated barred beach of Sète, SE France, to fight against erosion and submersion hazards. Daily video images from April 2011 to April 2016 covering an alongshore distance of 3.5km are used to analyse the response of both the sandbar(s) and the shoreline to the structure implementation. Results show that the breakwater had a profound impact on the nearshore system, both shoreward of the structure and well away from it alongshore. A progressive rotation and linearisation of the sandbar was observed shoreward of the submerged breakwater. This resulted in the splitting of the sandbar adjacent to the structure during a net offshore sandbar migration event driven by a severe storm in December 2013. The typical formation of a salient or tombolo was not observed. Instead, shoreline coupled to the sandbar geometry, which resulted in a slight seaward migration of the shoreline in front of the structure. Overall, this study highlights that the role of the sandbar is critical to shoreline response to the implementation of breakwaters on barred beaches.

A Storm is Coming? Collective Sensemaking and Ambiguity in an Inter-organizational Team Managing Railway System Disruptions

ABSTRACTThis paper studies the ways in which members of inter-organizational teams collectively make sense of unexpected events and how they decide upon engaging in action. Frequently, ambiguity dominates such change processes aimed to create common understanding. Using the notion of the duality of intrinsic and constructed ambiguity, a detailed analysis of the collective sensemaking efforts of an inter-organizational team of railway coordinators in the Operational Control Center Rail was conducted. Building on team meetings observations during the days preceding a large and potentially disruptive winter storm in December 2013, the case study describes the process of collectively making sense of the disruptiveness of the storm. The findings show that contextual and temporal factors determine whether collective sensemaking unfolds as either a shared or a negotiated process.

River management and flooding: The lesson of December 2015–January 2016, central USA

The huge winter storm of December 23–29, 2015 delivered heavy rainfall in a broad swath across the USA, deluging East-Central Missouri. Record high river levels were set at many sites, but damages were most pronounced in developed floodplain areas, particularly where high levees were built or river channels greatly narrowed. An average of 20 cm of rain that mostly fell in three days impacted the entire 10 300 km2 Meramec Basin. Compared to the prior record flood of 1982, the highest relative stage (+1.3 m) on Meramec River occurred at Valley Park proximal to (1) a new levee, (2) a landfill in the floodway, (3) large floodplain construction fills, and (4) tributary creek basins impacted by suburban sprawl. Even though only a small fraction of the 1.8 million km2 Mississippi River watershed above St. Louis received extraordinary rainfall during this event, the huge channelized river near and below St. Louis rapidly rose to set the 3rd-highest to the highest stages ever, exhibiting the flashy response typical of a much smaller river.