Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Research Articles

Do Elections Cause Military Spending to Go Up or Down? New International Evidence

This study explores whether the level of military expenditures is affected by the occurrence of elections. From a theoretical perspective, it is not immediately clear whether, and if so, in which direction, upcoming elections shift military expenditures. On the one hand, the incumbent may try to enhance the likelihood of being re-elected by supporting the domestic defense industry. On the other hand, it might be more attractive to cut defense spending and increase non-defense spending. It is also possible that both effects coexist. We therefore apply the finite mixture model (FMM), which is able to test competing hypotheses. Our results, based on a panel of 93 democratic countries between 1980 and 2018 and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) data on military spending, yield support for both hypotheses. Countries facing security risks or having a significant defense industry are most likely to expand their defense spending in an election year, while other countries are more likely to reduce their defense expenditure.

Role of military cooperation in Vietnam-Russia relations

The primary purpose of this article is the analysis of the evolution of bilateral relations between the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV) and the Russian Federation in the field of military cooperation. It gives answers to following research questions: 1) what is the role of defence collaboration in bilateral ties, 2) what are the most essential elements of Russia-Vietnam military relations, 3) what are the common reasons/ incentives for developing links regarding arms trade, 4) do the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and invasion of Ukraine in 2022 change goals of Vietnamese politics towards Moscow, 5) How do Chinese and US factor affect military cooperation between Russia and Vietnam? The theses of this paper assume that: 1) the government in Hanoi maintains friendly relations with Moscow on the political level in the face of the conflict in Ukraine and continues military cooperation, however Russian arms exports to Vietnam has declined, 2) Vietnam diversifies weapon trade partners expanding cooperation with Israel, Belarus, US and South Korea, but Russia still remains crucial arms importer for Hanoi.
 The analysis is focused mainly on the situation from 2002 to the present, and intends to examine the evolution of military cooperation between Hanoi and Moscow after the signing of the Declaration on Strategic Partnership. The article includes a short overview of Russia-Vietnam relations emphasizing its strong historical background. Paper is also focused on important arms trade contracts, agreements on military cooperation, includes statistics published by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to show the scale of collaboration, and points out major challenges for future cooperation.

Developments in Military Expenditure and the Effects of the War in Ukraine

ABSTRACT This article presents on trends in military spending, building on the most recent military expenditure data by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). World military spending grew for the eighth consecutive year in 2022, up 3.7 per cent to an all-time high of $2240 billion. The increase in world spending in 2022 was largely due to three factors: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; the increase in military spending by Central and Western Europe countries as a reaction to the invasion and expenditure rises in major powers in Asia, namely China, India and Japan. There were two major military expenditure related developments in 2022 linked to the war in Ukraine. Firstly, Central and Western European responded to the deteriorating security situation by announcing plans to substantially increases their military spending. Some of the acutest increases in military spending took place in countries with close geographical proximity to Russia and Ukraine. Secondly were the immediate and record levels of military aid sent to Ukraine. Based on official figures for the largest donors and other assistance funds, at least $30 billion worth of military aid was given to Ukraine in 2022, with the US as the largest provider accounting for around two-thirds of all military aid

Need Analysis of Indian Critical Health Care Delivery in Government Sectors and Its Impact on the General Public: A Time to Revamp Public Health Care Infrastructure.

Poverty is directly linked to public health care delivery in many ways and dimensions. Every aspect of the human sphere is preplanned, but a health crisis is the only emergency which pushes humanity into severe economic stress. Therefore, every nation aims to safeguard its citizens from a health crisis. In this aspect, India needs to improve its public health infrastructure in order to protect its citizens and save them from poverty. (1) To assess the current pitfalls in public critical health care delivery, (2) to analyze whether the health care delivery matches the requirements of its population in every state, (3) to produce solutions and guidelines to overcome the stress in this priority area. Data regarding the critical care workforce, which includes critical care doctors and nurses, were taken from official websites and other sources. Critical care infrastructure data were retrieved from the Internet sources. Data were validated by consulting state government sources and cross-checked for bias elimination. The data were analyzed using the "Statistical Package for Social Sciences" software version 20, and were presented using descriptive statistics. There is a 1:10 percentage of deficit in the case of critical care workforce and infrastructure when compared with its need analysis. Critical care medicine specialists are in 1:75 when compared to other specialties. Overall, the public sector critical care needs a total boost through out of box solutions. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India spent the third most on defense in the world in 2021. India spent 76.6 billion dollars on its military in 2021, up 33% from 2012 and 0.9% from 2020. However, since India is considered a fast-growing economy, there is still a huge disparity in critical care. Without resetting critical health care, India cannot grow in welfare indices even if it is among the top gross domestic product (GDP) countries. Prabu D, Gousalya V, Rajmohan M, Dinesh MD, Bharathwaj VV, Sindhu R, et al. Need Analysis of Indian Critical Health Care Delivery in Government Sectors and its Impact on the General Public: A Time to Revamp Public Health Care Infrastructure. Indian J Crit Care Med 2023;27(4):237-245.

The Problem of the “Shiʻa Crescent” in the Middle East: A Quantitative Analysis

The relevance of this research is due to the unabated interest of the international community in the struggle for regional leadership between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which has unfolded in the Middle East for a number of years. The growing concerns of the KSA and its geopolitical allies, the United States and the small Arabian monarchies, related to the increasing influence of Iran on the military-political situation in Syria and Iraq, have raised in international discourse the question of the reality or impossibility of creating the so-called “Shiʻa crescent” under the auspices of Tehran. The idea is to unite the states of the Middle East, in which Shiʻa Muslims constitute the vast majority or a significant minority of the population, which would ensure Iran’s decisive victory in the race for dominance in the region. However, until now, the question of a quantitative assessment of the real resources of the states included in the “Shiʻa crescent” has so far remained out of researchers’ sight. In this regard, the aim of this article is to prove the absence of economic and military-political prerequisites for the formation of the “Shiʻa crescent” by using the method of quantitative indicators from databases, rankings and indices and a network analysis of conventional arms supplies within the “Sunni” and “Shiʻa” blocs. The databases of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Doing Business, Human Capital, Global Firepower, Global Terrorism, and Global Peace rankings, as well as World Bank statistical reports served as an empirical basis for the research. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was constructive realism, which takes into account both quantitative indicators and the ideological and value attitudes of the state in the analysis of international relations. The study showed that the “Shiʻa crescent” is a purely propaganda construct, and cannot become a real interstate association.

Аналіз міжнародних оцінок воєнної сили Збройних сил України та країн світу

The purpose of the article is to highlight the basic methodological and methodical approaches to the construction and calculation of ratings (indices), which allow to assess the military capabilities of individual countries of the world, to conduct correct international comparisons of the military power of countries and to determine Ukraine’s place in the system of these indicators. The publication defines methodological and methodical approaches to comparing the military power of individual countries and the combat capability of their armies, as proposed by various international organizations and institutions. In particular, an analysis of the database provided by the International Institute for Strategic Studies was carried out in terms of the number of military personnel. The ranking of world countries in terms of budget expenditures for military needs is analyzed, which is provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as well as ratings of world countries for certain types of military equipment, such as: aviation equipment, tanks, naval vessels, etc. Measurements and international comparisons of multidimensional militarization processes are based on indicators of international ranking systems: the military power of countries and the combat capability of armies – based on the Global Firepower (GFP), the military burden on the economy and society as a whole – based on the Global Militarization Index (GMI). Methodological aspects of the formation of these international rankings are also considered; the results of positioning in the rankings of top countries and of Ukraine are given.

The role of women in peacekeeping operations

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute issues annual report detailing women’s meaningful participation in peacebuilding operations. Although there had been an increase in the significance of women-peacekeepers, the desired progress had not yet been achieved. In this article author considers the level of women’s involvement and the impact that they have (or don’t) on the outcome of peacebuilding and decision-making processes.

О роли историко-правовых исследований военных конфликтов как истоков трансформации государства и права

Introduction: social and political conflicts often lead to direct armed clashes both inside and outside the state. At the same time, the state-legal consequences generated by military conflicts often radically transform the mechanism of the state, its legal and political systems. In the conditions of constantly emerging armed conflicts in the world (according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, there are currently more than 20), their historical research is of particular importance. The subject of the work was the legal consequences of intra-state armed conflicts and social contradictions that had triggered their onset and development. The purpose of the work is to determine the role and significance of historical and legal studies of armed conflicts through the example of civil wars and to justify the need for further research of a violent armed conflict within the framework of legal science. Methods: the methodological framework for the research was made up of the formal legal, historical, sociological methods, as well as the synthesis and analysis of historical events and their legal consequences. The topic has a novelty in the context of the need to conduct research in the national historical and legal science of the “blind” zone of violent military conflicts, as a rule, ignored by legal history. The results of such generalizing studies will make it possible to realize one of the functions of history of state and law as a science – the forecasting of state-legal phenomena of the future and the analysis of current political processes. Finally, the author comes to the conclusion about the significant and underestimated role of historical and legal studies of armed conflicts, namely, the fallacy of omission from the research field of its violent course.

The hidden cost of global economic integration: How foreign investment drives military expenditures

The global economy is increasingly integrated, with more than 60,000 international firms now directing almost one million foreign affiliates worldwide. We examine one significant, and largely unexplored, aspect of this integration – the cost of protecting these global investments. More specifically, we assess the extent to which foreign direct investment (FDI) drives military expenditures. Drawing from recent studies, we adopt a social network framework. Using data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s Bilateral FDI Statistics and the International Monetary Fund’s Coordinated Direct Investment Survey, we construct the global FDI network between 2001 and 2017 and derive out-degree centrality scores based on each country’s structural location in this network. Next, using data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, we estimate two-way fixed effects models for a global sample of 1,880 observations across 129 countries over this time period to assess the relationship between FDI centrality and military expenditures. We find that degree centrality in the global FDI network has a positive impact on military expenditures, net of other relevant predictors.Military expenditures do not, however, appear to drive FDI. We estimate the aggregate impact of FDI centrality on military expenditures, and suggest that these increased costs amount to a hidden subsidy of global corporate activity.

Contingencies in the relationship between trade and internal conflict in Nigeria: the role of the quality of the political institution

PurposeThis paper empirically tests the relationship between conflict and trade in Nigeria from 1986 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachThis study made use of secondary data. Time-series data were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin, WDI of the World Bank, MEPV of the Centre for Systemic Peace database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, political risk ratings of the ICRG, Freedom in the World Country Ratings of Freedom House, and ACLED database. This study used descriptive and econometrics techniques to analyze the data. It adopted the IV-GMM techniques.FindingsThe study found that domestic trade has a negative and significant effect on internal conflict in Nigeria. International trade, on the other hand, does not affect internal conflict. In addition, the interaction of trade and institutions shows that more civil liberties (CL) and lower corruption (COR) complement the effect of domestic and international trade in reducing hostilities in Nigeria over the study period.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of this study is the inaccessibility of data. This study could not access the data on the volume of domestic trade in Nigeria. The study employed value-added tax on all domestic transactions in Nigeria as a proxy for domestic trade in the country. The study recommends that further studies should access the data on the volume of domestic trade as this could help further understand the relationship between domestic trade and internal conflict in Nigeria.Practical implicationsSince the improved domestic trade reduces internal conflict in Nigeria, the government should formulate policies that facilitate trade. Improving anti-graft efforts and CL will ease the process of formulating trade policies and increase the impact of domestic trade on internal conflict. Furthermore, these will reduce trade barriers and transaction costs. This can be achieved if the government strengthens its anti-COR agencies by making them more autonomous. CL can also be increased by enhancing voice and accountability in the country.Originality/valueThis study advances the literature by examining the role political–institutional quality plays in the relationship between trade and conflict.

ИМЭМО в первой половине 2000-х (Результаты исследований)

The article summarizes the results of the IMEMO academic affairs in the first half of the 2000s. Like before, the Institute combined fundamental theoretical and applied research. In its work, IMEMO focused on the study of global, regional and national problems of the modern world. An important achievement of the Institute during these years was the prepared long-term forecast of the world economy development until 2015. The annual (2000–2005) analytical reports on the study of armed conflicts, their prevention and control, as well as of global and regional trends in the development of military expenses can be considered another achievement of this kind. These reports were prepared at IMEMO together with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). IMEMO’s accomplishments include the fundamental work “Transitional Economy: Theoretical Aspects, Russian Problems, International Experience”. In this research, the theoretical problems of the transitional economy were deeply investigated with an emphasis on the achievements of world economic thought, international and accumulated Russian experience of transitional processes was analyzed. The IMEMO scientists were involved in comparative analysis of the influence of new factors (globalization, information civilization, integration processes, international terrorism, etc.) on modern Russia and foreign countries. Along with theoretical research, the Institute regularly prepared analytical materials and expert opinions for the Administration of the President of Russia, the Government, the Federation Council and the State Duma. The IMEMO employees took part in the preparation of materials for the annual messages of the President of Russia to the Federal Assembly, gave their recommendations on military reform and updating the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. The Institute was engaged in constant monitoring of the economic and internal situation in various regions and major states of the modern world. The focus of IMEMO analysts was the foreign policy of the United States, the European Union countries, the states of the Middle East, Central Asia and Latin America, as well as the Asia-Pacific region. This ongoing work was carried out in various departments and sectors of the Institute. The author presents the directions and main results of the work of these scientific departments. In general, one of the indicators of the overall performance of IMEMO in 2001–2006 are 256 monographs, collections of scientific papers, conference materials, brochures and reports published by its employees. During these years, the results of current work began to be posted on the IMEMO website.

Analysis of Transaction Volume and Stock Return on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

This study is intended to examine the Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation, Oil Price as part of macro fundamental variables and Return on Equity, Firm Size, Debt to Equity Ratio, Dividend Payout Ratio, Foreign Value as part of micro fundamentals on Stock Transaction Volume and its implications for Stock Returns. The objects in this study are automotive companies and their components listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2011-2017 by using panel data regression in conducting the analysis. The variables in the first research model that have a significant effect are Rupiah Exchange Rate, Oil Price, Dividend Payout Ratio with a negative correlation to Stock Transaction Volume, while Return on Equity, Debt to Equity Ratio have a positive correlation. In the second research model. References Simpson, Christopher. (1988) BlowBack: America’s Recruitment of Nazis and its Effects on the Cold War. New York: Wheatland Corporation. "Israel Arms Control and Proliferation Profile." The Arms Control Association (July 2013). Goldblat, Jozef (2002). Arms Control: A Guide to Negotiations and Agreements (London: Sage Publications Ltd., 2004). Smith, Roger K. "Explaining the Nonproliferation Regime: Anomalies for Contemporary International Relations Theory," Spring 1987. International Organisation 41, no.2. 253. Jozef Goldblat, F. Barnaby, B. Jasani, and J. Rotblat ed.(2020). Nuclear Energy and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. 302. Londres: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Chari, P.R. (March 2011). "From CTBT to FMCT: India's Nuclear Debate." IPCS Issue Summary. Walsh, Jim (2005). Learning from Past Achievements: The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Future of Non-Proliferation (Stockholm, Sweden: Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission. 2013 "Fact Sheet: North Korea's Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs" by Kim, Duyeon. Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Center. "Israel Arms Control and Proliferation Profile." (2013) Association for Arms Control. New York: Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (2005). (2-27 May, 2005). Keller, William W. Janne E. Nolan (Winter 1997-98). Foreign Policy, "Proliferation of Advanced Weapons: A Threat to Stability." "Communication Received from Several Member States Regarding Export Guidelines for Nuclear Materials, Equipment, and Technology" (1978) February Circular INFCIRC/254 from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Rudney, Robert. and Anthony T.J. (1996). Beyond COCOM: A Comparison of Five National Export Control Systems and Their Implications for a Multilateral Non-Proliferation Regime Comparative Strategy 15, no. 1 (January/March 1996), pp. 41-57. Young, Oran R. (1986) "International Regimes: Toward a New Theory of Institutions," World Politics, vol. 106, p. 106. Tertrais, Bruno (ed) Henry D. Sokolski. Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. Houston Wood (2008) Alexander Glaser and Scott Kemp, "The gas centrifuge and the proliferation of nuclear weapons," 61 Physics Today (3). Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Power and Interdependence (1977). Little, Brown, in Boston Bhonsle Rahul K. Ved Prakash and Kulwant Rai Gupta, (2007) "Indo-U.S. Civil Nuclear Agreement," Atlantic Publishers & Distrib. 33. India's economy is expanding faster than China's at present (2015) The Economist, nineteen February. Keohane In Power and Interdependence, Robert O. and Joseph S. Nye (2001) wrote "Realism and Complex Interdependence." 23. Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, editors. New York: Longman. Stein, Arthur A., "Coordination and collaboration: regimes in an anarchic world," in International Regimes, edited by Stephen D. Krasner (New York: Cornell University Press, 1983), 117. International Responses to Technology: Concepts and Trends, by John Gerard Ruggie. Summer 1975 issue of International Organization, volume 29, number 3: 570 pages. The shrewdness of Andreas. Integrating Theories of International Regimes. Peter Mayer and Volker Rittberger, 2000. British International Studies Association, Review of International Studies, volume 26, number 1 (January), pages 3–33. Haas, Ernst (1980) "Technological Self-Sufficiency for Latin America: The OAS Contribution." Autumn 1980 issue of International Organization, number 4: 553. Jervis, Robert. "Security Regimes," in International Regimes, edited by Stephen D. Krasner, 186, Cornell University Press, New York, 1983. Keohane Robert 0. Lisa L. Martin (Summer, 1995). Institutionalist Theory's Prospects. International Security, volume 20, issue 1: 39-51. Has, Ernst B. (1983). "Words Can Hurt: Who Said What to Whom About Regimes," in International Regimes, edited by Stephen D. Krasner, New York: Cornell University Press, pp. 38-39. Rebecca Johnson. (2014) "Time warps in Nuclear Non-Proliferation." Liberal Democracy.

ПРОМИСЛОВЕ ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ ПРОТИДІЇ ВІЙСЬКОВІЙ АГРЕСІЇ

Introduction. The article substantiates the importance of the industrial development to strengthening the country's defense capability and ensure the civilian population needs. Based on a comparison of the financing of the defense complex in different countries, it is shown that, in addition to direct military expenditures, defense capability depends on a developed industrial complex. Prospective types of industrial activity in Ukraine, which have a high degree of influence on meeting the needs of the economy in the conditions of war time, have been identified. New technologies for ensuring defense capability are defined and tools for digital and innovative transformations in Ukrainian industry are proposed. Materials and methods. The substantiation of the industrial complex capabilities to strengthen the national security, the determination of key areas of production to meet the needs of the economy in the conditions of war time, as well as the set of tools for realizing such capabilities in Ukraine was carried out by dialectical, formal-legal, systemic-structural and comparative methods. The dialectical method made it possible to determine the possibilities of manufacturing modern means of defense and products for the lifesaving of the country's population. With the help of the formal-legal method, the content of the norms of separate current normative legal acts of Ukraine, which define the concept of the country's defense capability, is highlighted. The use of the system-structural method made it possible to determine key strategic goals and key strategic initiatives for digital and innovative transformations in Ukrainian industry. Comparative methods of economic and statistical analysis based on statistical data of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation were used to determine the trends in the financing of defense expenditures in different countries. Results and discussion. Countering military threats depends on the state's ability to ensure the safety of the population and the integrity of the territory, where a powerful industrial complex plays the main role. Financing of the defense sector for the supply of weapons and means of warfare in Ukraine is insufficient compared to other countries, although during wartime its volumes increase. At the same time, it is impossible to imagine a combat-ready army without proper provision of special uniforms, protective equipment, food, fuel and lubricants, medicines, etc. All this confirms the importance of a developed industrial complex in creating available resources to meet the needs of not only the civilian population, but also the needs of the army. To increase the country's readiness for military threats, it is necessary to activate innovative transformations in advance by introducing technologies to production processes in industry, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning; robotics, bioinformatics, blockchain, and countermeasures against cyber threats. The wide application of such technologies in all spheres of scientific, industrial and military activity will allow strengthening the country's defense capabilities and provide additional opportunities for managing combat operations, destroying enemy equipment and preventing infiltration into the country's territory; hiding one's positions and masking; conducting search and rescue operations; data collection and documentation of war crimes; protection, productivity and life support, as well as to counter cyberattacks. Conclusions. As a result of the study, a list of advanced Industry 4.0 technologies was determined, the production of which can be organized at Ukrainian factories with the cooperation of foreign partners. The primary measures to accelerate the technological transformation of Ukrainian production based on the establishment of an effective dialogue between state and local authorities, national manufacturers and scientific and educational institutions, as well as close cooperation with European and international clusters, are substantiated.

A Policy Perspective on Multilateral Export Control Regime (MECR): Theoretical Discourse

A Policy Perspective on Multilateral Export Control Regime (MECR): Theoretical Discourse

ORÇAMENTO EM DEFESA E CAPACIDADES ESTRATÉGICAS: DISSIMILARIDADES ENTRE OS PAÍSES DA AMÉRICA DO SUL

We take into account that interpretations of security complexes, traditions of long peace, and violent peace do not fully explain how South American countries are organized regarding Defense. Given those, we ran a cluster analysis with data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and Military Balance report with economic defense expenditure and capabilities investment from South American countries to identify how they are organized, determining those that are most similar to each other (which would form complexes) and how they differ from the others (dissimilarities). The results showed four different clusters: the first formed by Chile, Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia; the second by Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay; the third only by the Guyana; and the fourth, formed only by Uruguay. We interpreted these clusters considering the history of conflicts, current countries threats and treaties.

An Alternative Exploration of Global Political Relations in Southern Africa during the Cold War: Modularity in the Global Arms Trade Network from 1975 to 1988

During the Cold War, two camps used arms to expand their influence in the Third World. In the present study, I used the concept of modularity (Q), developed within network theory, to study communities within the global arms trade network from 1975 to 1988. Using data provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, I showed that communities within this network had political ties with South America, Asia and Southern Africa. As part of the study I sorted countries based on their arms trade transactions, and in the process I established that China was positioned with the West in the period under study. Not only did my study show that the arms trade network reflected political alliances during this period, but it also indicated that this network highlighted international relations and the alliances of political organisations. Based on the findings of my study I put forward suggestions for future research.

Democracy’s third wave and national defense spending

I investigate how the third wave of democracy influenced national defense spending by reference to a panel of 110 countries over the 1972–2013 period. I apply new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute on military expenditures, which has been extended to years prior to 1988, and four democracy measures to address differences among indices of democracy. The results from a dynamic panel data model suggest that democracy’s third wave reduced defense spending relative to GDP by about 10% within countries that experienced democratization. I exploit the regional diffusion of democracy in the context of the third wave of democratization as an instrumental variable (IV) for democracy in order to overcome endogeneity problems. The IV estimates indicate that democracy reduced national defense spending relative to GDP by about 20% within countries that experienced democratization, demonstrating that OLS underestimates the effect of democracy on national defense spending. The cumulative long-run effect of democratization resulting from the dynamics in defense spending is almost three times larger for both OLS and IV estimates.

PENGARUH ANGGARAN PERTAHANAN, IMPOR ALUTSISTA, EKSPOR ALUTSISTA, DAN INFLASI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1980-2019

Military and economy are two factors that can sustain the strength of a nation, where it can be seen from the nation's economic growth. Military indicators include military budget, arms imports, and arms exports. One of the economic indicators is inflation. These indicators are used in this study. The research problem is about the differences in results of research found in previous studies. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of military indicators and economic indicators on economic growth. The study conducted in Indonesia using secondary data obtained from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), World Bank, and Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of Republic of Indonesia. The research period is 40 years, from 1980 to 2019. The research method uses multiple linear regression. The results showed that military budget has significant effect on economic growth with positive relationship with probability value 0,01. Arms imports has significant effect on economic growth with positive relationship with probability value 0,03. Arms exports has no significant effect on economic growth with probability value 0,49. Inflation has a significant effect on economic growth with negative relationship with probability value 0,00. And simultaneously have significant effect on economic growth. In order to increase economic growth, it is necessary to has a military budget planning, planning for arms imports to be developed domestically, development of domestic arms technology to have competitive value, as well as planning the annual rate of inflation which will have an impact on increasing Indonesia's economic growth. Keywords: Arms Export, Arms Import, Economic Growth, Inflation, Military Budget

Ending Corporate Anonymity: Beneficial Ownership, Sanctions Evasion, and What the United Nations Should Do About It

In the vast majority of jurisdictions around the world, there is a generous array of corporate forms available to persons and companies looking to do business. These entities come with varying degrees of regulation regarding how much information about the businesses’ principal owners must be disclosed at the time of registration and how much of that information is subsequently available to the public. There is little policy harmonization around the world on this matter. Dictators and despots have long taken advantage of this unintended identity shield to evade sanctions which target them; in July of 2019, the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS) published a comprehensive, investigative report into North Korea’s supply chain for luxury vehicles outlawed by U.N.S.C resolution 1718. C4ADS found eighty-two previously unreported shipments of 803 luxury vehicles – including two armored Mercedes limousines Kim Jong-Un was later pictured in – between 2015 and 2017 alone. At least twenty-four corporate entities, mostly based in China and Russia, participated in the process of covertly moving the cars to North Korea as guarantors, consignors, or consignees. Hugh Griffiths, Senior Researcher and Head of Countering Illicit Trafficking-Mechanism Assessment Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and coordinator for the U.N. panel convened to monitor North Korean sanctions compliance, summed up the significance of the problem succinctly. “If you can smuggle luxury limos into North Korea, which is done by shipping container,” he says, “that means you can smuggle in smaller components – dual-use items for ballistic and nuclear programs.” Deficient beneficial ownership protections around the world are not just the esoteric consequence of complicated legal systems; they present a significant threat to international peace and security as a vehicle for terrorism financing, sanctions evasion, and other forms of criminal activity. In six parts, this paper considers the development of beneficial ownership regulation since the 1990s, describes current efforts to harmonize jurisdiction-specific approaches, suggests more intensive involvement by the United Nations, establishes the legal basis for the use of the U.N. Security Council’s legislative powers on this issue, and argues that the United Nations is the international organization best-suited to drive towards universal, international compliance with the modern regulatory consensus.

Turkey-United States' Bilateral Ties: a Tale of Convergence and Divergence of Interests

The paper explores bilateral ties between Turkey and the United States (US) following the end of World War II to the recent era of Trump-Erdogan. Due to its immense geostrategic significance and a strong military, throughout the Cold War period and also in the post-Cold War era, Tukey has mostly remained a key US ally. The methodology adopted for this study is based on both qualitative data available in the form of policy documents and existing literature about the subject as well as utilizing quantitative data comprising US economic and military aid and arms' sales to Turkey obtained from databases of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) respectively. Like numerous developing countries in other parts of the world, Turkey also became one of the biggest recipients of US economic and military assistance and Washington also provided huge arms to Ankara during the Cold War years. The US has provided Turkey an aggregate of US$ 70 billion in civilian and military assistance and has delivered its arms worth US$ 34 billion. However, it has not been a smooth journey as their bilateral relationship experienced some upheavals not only during the Cold War period but ties have been strained by various thorny matters in recent years. These include Turkey's dispute with Greece on Cyprus, targeting Kurdish fighters in Syria, purchase of S-400 defense systems from Russia, and human rights violations at home. By examining these vital points of concern, the paper concludes that although both countries have historically maintained warm bilateral ties, several divergent issues have marred the relationship between the two countries in recent years.