Stock Premiums Research Articles

Overinvestment is ambitious or reckless? The answer from employees

This study identifies that CEO characteristics can drive overinvestment to superior ROA and stock return. We employ data from Glassdoor.com, a total of 755,541 reviews, to measure the CEO's characteristics. We find that, if CEOs are approved by their employees, overinvestment can spur firm development and boost future stock premiums. To address endogeneity concerns, we use the Fama-MacBeth regression and various standards for selecting valid reviews as a robustness test, yielding consistent results. Our results emphasize that overinvestment should be perceived as an investment style but not a reckless investment, and the impact depends on the CEO's capability and morality.

Impact of tax changes on the risk premium of the WIG index

The presented article provides an empirical analysis of changes in the risk premium of stocks on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in response to changes in tax rates. The analysis uses a structural VAR model, identified with sign restrictions. This method turns out simple to use and proves to be effective in overcoming the problem of predictability of fiscal policy, which is especially important in studies using variables from financial markets. The results show an increase in the risk premium following a sudden tax hike, accompanied only by a temporary reduction in GDP growth. Meanwhile, an anticipated tax hike seems to lower risk premia while being more harmful to GDP dynamics.

Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and anchoring bias

ABSTRACT This study explores the impact of anchoring bias on the daily tug-of-war in financial markets, specifically examining the reversal dynamics between overnight and daytime periods in relation to the 52-week high price. After analysing the interplay between anchoring bias and the abnormal intensity of the tug-of-war (AB_NR), our findings reveal a significant AB_NR premium for stocks far from their 52-week high prices. This sheds light on the important role of psychological barriers faced by noise investors during overnight periods in shaping return dynamics.

On the influencing factors of AH shares linkage in China under new regulation policy of reduction

AH stock premium and its price linkage have always been the key problems of concern for scholars and investors. Taking the stock price yield of AH stock as the explanatory variable, this paper adopts the panel quantile model to probe into the linkage mechanism of AH stock price from five aspects such as risk difference, liquidity difference, demand elasticity difference, information asymmetry and new regulation policy of reduction. Due to the herding effect, information asymmetry has a negative effect on the H-share yield in the income and loss intervals, and a positive effect in the stable interval. The negative effect of liquidity difference on the H-share yield in the loss interval is converted into the positive effect in the income interval, but it is the most sensitive in high risk areas. The influence of demand elasticity on H-share yield is characterized by the typical characteristics of Chinese stock market “chasing after go up and killing cheapen” or “buying the winners”. Risk difference is not obvious because the behavior of risk lover and risk averter is offset by each other. The introduction of a 2017-year reduction in the new rules has significantly reduced the share price yield of H-shares. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for investors to invest and avoid risk in AH stocks and some specific policy implications for financial regulators are also provided based on these results.

An Empirical Study on the Premium of Low-Priced Stocks in China's A-Share Market

Abstract This paper selects the data of China's A-shares from 2001 to 2020 to study the premium effect of low-cost stocks in China's A-share market from different sectors using multiple regression analysis. The research results show that there is a premium effect of low-cost stocks in each sector of the A-share market. The increase in the shareholding ratio of institutional investors and the attention of analysts can reduce the premium effect of low-cost stocks. JEL classification numbers: F832.5 Keywords: Low-priced stocks, Premium effect, Excess return, Financial anomalies.

Follow the Money

Abstract I study, both empirically and theoretically, the economic and financial consequences of corporate lobbying. Firms lobby politicians to increase their share of government contracts, but political competition creates firm-level risk, inflating their cost of capital and reducing their incentive to invest in research and development (R&D). I document an annual 6–8% return premium for stocks of high-lobbying firms, which compensates investors for political risk. An estimated model in which firms can lobby and innovate and investors are risk averse replicates key features of corporate lobbying in the U.S., including the well-established paradox that lobbying contributions are small relative to the policies at stake. The model predicts that if investors ceased seeking compensation for political risk, R&D investment would increase by 6% and the innovation rate by 0.4% points. The risk-premium costs of lobbying are quantitatively and economically important even if the resources “wasted” on lobbying are objectively small.

On the time‐varying relationship between coskewness and returns of banks

AbstractFor a sample of US commercial banks, we find that during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 and the COVID‐19 pandemic of February–December 2020, bank returns were positively related to their coskewness with the market return, while the relationship was negative during stable periods. The literature on non‐financial firms and global equity indices has shown that the relationship between coskewness and stock returns is time‐variant. The findings of this study extend that evidence to banks. The interpretation is that in normal times, investors show a preference for “lotteryness,” and therefore they are willing to pay a premium for bank stocks with a high coskewness (i.e., low expected return). In contrast, during crises, stocks with a high coskewness are more likely to suffer deep losses, and investors are reluctant to demand these risky high returns. These findings deliver important insights into how to interpret bank capital costs throughout the business cycle, as we suggest that during crises the issuance of equity capital becomes more costly for banks because investors demand higher coskewness risk premiums.

Hot potatoes: Underpricing of stocks following extreme negative returns

Although investors accept a negative premium for lottery-like stocks, it is puzzling that the opposite effect is not observed among stocks experiencing large daily losses. We find that many stocks that experience large negative daily returns (MIN) also display large positive daily returns (MAX); therefore the MIN effect is subdued. Once stocks ranked as high-MAX within MIN deciles are removed, we find that the MIN effect produces significantly higher next-month returns. The subsequent-month returns following MIN are particularly higher when stocks experience negative cumulative monthly returns, when firm-specific investor sentiment is low, and when stocks are near their 52-week lows.

The effect of corporate investment on market frictions: implication for the stock price delay premium

ABSTRACT We demonstrate the effect of corporate investment on market frictions by exploring the stock liquidity channel. Using the stock price delay premium as a proxy for market frictions, we find that higher corporate investment leads to lower premium for stocks whose price responds slowly to information. Moreover, this cross-sectional phenomenon is more pronounced during the low sentiment/liquidity period, which experiences lack of liquidity. We obtain qualitatively the same results in a battery of robustness checks. Overall, this study suggests that corporate investment alleviates market frictions by altering stock liquidity.

Persistence of jump-induced tail risk and limits to arbitrage

We present a novel methodology to calculate the jump-induced tail risk premium for individual stocks and examine its effect on the following-month’s returns. The existence of a premium for bearing negative jump-induced tail risk is significantly associated with negative one-month future returns. In contrast, the existence of a positive premium for bearing jump-induced tail risk has no such significant predictive power. Further, we find that the larger is the magnitude of the premium for negative jump-induced tail risk, the greater and longer-lasting is its impact on expected returns. Lastly, the observed ten-day lag taken to fully incorporate negative jump tail information into price is consistent with limits to arbitrage in the underlying stocks.

Economic uncertainty and cross section of stock returns: Australian evidence

In this paper, we construct a new macroeconomic uncertainty index for the Australian economy. We then examine the pricing implication of macroeconomic uncertainty on the cross section of Australian equity returns. Our paper replicates Bali, Brown and Tang (2017)’s findings that U.S. investors pay (require) higher prices (lower premium) for stocks that perform well when economic uncertainty increases. We also find evidence supporting such premium in the Australian equity market.

Optimal information production of mutual funds: Evidence from China

This study demonstrates that Chinese stock mutual funds exhibit persistent preference for growth stocks over value stocks. Despite the positive premium of value stocks over growth stocks, funds in aggregate manage to beat the market. Moreover, growth-oriented funds do not underperform their value-oriented peers. To solve these puzzles, we provide evidence for funds’ superior skill in picking growth stocks over value stocks, and conclude that such skill helps explain their growth tilt. Furthermore, we show that mutual funds trade against the retail investors, more so in growth stocks than in value stocks. Coupled with our finding that retail investors make more mistakes trading growth stocks than trading value stocks, we conclude that mutual funds optimize their information production to focus more on growth stocks so as to maximize returns.

New evidence on the impact of implicit trading costs on asset prices in the Russian stock market

ABSTRACT We perform a comprehensive study of different illiquidity effects in the relatively illiquid Russian stock market. Over the period 2010–2020, we apply cross-sectional and time-series regressions using two low-frequency illiquidity proxies: the Amihud ratio and the invariance-implied ratio. The evidence suggests that implicit trading costs influence only the returns of small-capitalization stocks or low size double-sorted portfolios. The Amihud ratio overestimates the illiquidity premium for small-cap stocks as predicted by the invariance theory. However, we find that the effect is economically and statistically significant only in the time-series.

Asset pricing and nominal price illusion in China

Based on the Fama’s three-factor model (FF3) and five-factor model (FF5), this study adds a low-priced stock premium factor LPP, and then builds a new four-factor and six-factor model respectively to examine the impact of low-price premium (LPP) on the pricing of China’s stock market. The research indicates that LPP is a reliable and effective pricing component in China’s A-share market, and it may be used as a systematic factor in the Chinese stock market’s asset pricing model. The LPP factor shows a strong negative association with stock excess returns. And the inclusion of the LPP in the FF3 and FF5 still passes the robustness test. Meanwhile, the six-factor model created by combining the LPP factor with the FF5 could explain Chinese stock market pricing better.

The Real Response to Uncertainty Shocks: The Risk Premium Channel

Uncertainty shocks are also risk premium shocks. With countercyclical risk aversion (RA), a positive shock to uncertainty increases risk and elevates RA as consumption growth falls. The combination of high RA and high uncertainty produces significant equity risk premia in bad times, which in turn, exacerbate the decline of macroeconomic aggregates and equity prices. Moreover, in the cross-section of equity returns, investors demand a risk premium for stocks that perform poorly in times of high uncertainty and elevated risk aversion. In a model with endogenously time-varying RA, uncertainty shocks lead to large falls in investment and equity prices that closely match state-dependent data responses. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4335 .

Liquidity risk and stock returns: empirical evidence from industrial products and services sector in Bursa Malaysia

This study investigates the impact of liquidity risk on stock returns of 149 firms in the industrial products and services sectors of Bursa Malaysia from January 2000 to December 2018 with a monthly frequency dataset. This study employed the two-stage standard procedures in asset pricing to estimate the significant effect of liquidity risk on industrial products and services stock returns. The results show that the investors require liquidity premium for stocks whose illiquidity co-moves with market illiquidity and market return while shifting their investment to liquid stocks when the market becomes illiquid, thus positive premium for stocks whose return is higher during the illiquid market. It suggests that two liquidity risks, namely commonality in liquidity and the covariances between stock illiquidity and market returns, and aggregate liquidity risk explain the cross-sectional returns variations across stocks in the industrial products and services sector, thus partly support the LCAPM model. We provide evidence on the important role of liquidity risks on the cross-sectional industrial products and services stock returns in Bursa Malaysia in the LCAPM framework. The findings of this study may be useful for investment decision-making and portfolio allocation strategy under the liquid and illiquid securities conditions. For policymakers, understanding the impact of liquidity risks on stock returns for the industrial products and services sectors may help enhance market liquidity for economic growth. Therefore, our findings contribute to the practical and policy implications.

Against the Flow: Differentiating Between Public Opposition to the Immigration Stock and Flow

AbstractVast research on immigration lumps together native citizens' attitudes toward two different groups: the immigrant stock of non-naturalized resident aliens, and the immigrant flow, that is, the future arrival of foreigners seeking to enter and live in the country. Does popular opposition to immigration distinguish between the two, and if so, how? This article analyzes theoretically the reasons the stock and flow might induce different views among natives, and presents experimental evidence from the United States showing that natives are systematically more accepting of the former. The analysis indicates that this ‘stock premium’ partly stems from a sense of moral obligation toward people residing in the country. Replicating two widely cited experiments, the study shows that the stock–flow distinction has important implications for the interpretation of earlier findings on immigration attitudes, and for understanding voter preferences regarding policies designed to curtail immigration.

Extreme returns and idiosyncratic risks: evidence from an emerging market

In this paper, we show that there is a negative premium for MAX stocks in the Korean stock market. However, there is no evidence that the MAX effect overwhelms the effects of idiosyncratic risk. When we control for idiosyncratic risk, the negative relationship between extreme returns and future returns is less robust. Rather, the cross-effect of the extreme returns and the idiosyncratic risk factors explains the negative premium. Furthermore, our results are not fully explained by the exposure to the market timing and economic state. Overall, both the extreme return and idiosyncratic risk effects appear to coexist in the Korean stock market, but they are not independently.

The valuation effect of stock dividends or splits: Evidence from a catering perspective

Abstract We hypothesize that managers use stock dividends or splits to cater to gambling investors who are willing to pay a premium for stocks with lottery-like features. Using proprietary account-level trading records, we find that retail investors, particularly those with a strong gambling preference, become strong net buyers following the announcement of stock dividends, while professional investors unload their holdings. Moreover, we find that positive market reactions to stock dividends is positively associated with increases in gambling investors.

Hot Potatoes: Overreaction to Extreme Negative Returns

Although it is well established that investors are willing to accept a negative premium for lottery-like stocks, it is puzzling that the opposite effect is not observed in stocks experiencing large daily losses. We find that stocks that experience large negative daily returns (MIN) also display large positive daily returns (MAX); therefore the MIN effect is subdued. Once stocks ranked as high-MAX within MIN deciles are removed, we find that MIN positively predicts future stock returns. More importantly, a strategy that buys pure high-MIN stocks and shorts pure high-MAX stocks generates superior returns compared to stand-alone MAX and/or MIN strategies.