Open Market Stock Research Articles

Using Z-score models to forecast financial stability in pharmaceutical firms: a case study of SAIDAL

Purpose. This research paper aims to underscore the significance of Z-score models in assessing the financial status of loan applicants “financially distressed” in their relationship with commercial banks “financially solvent” entities. For this purpose, it uses the results of financial analysis, including various financial ratios, allowing for a comparison between the findings of financial equilibrium analysis methods and the results obtained from applying Z-score models. Additionally, it seeks to identify the most suitable Z-score models for the Algerian business environment in terms of detecting cases of financial insolvency and debt default. Results. The results of a comparative empirical study are presented by juxtaposing the use of financial analysis against scoring models in order to evaluate the decision to grant a bank loan, because the firm’s set of specific investments and contracts is related with the part of the financial surplus and financial support entities. The empirical study found that the reliability of Z-score model outcomes is associated with the nature of financial analysis outputs, particularly with the specificity of the estimation model built according to data specific to a particular business environment, e.g. “SAIDAL Group” during 2021–2023 as one of pharmaceutical firm listed company in Algerian stock exchange. This is because the relative weights embodied in the financial ratio parameters relied upon in each estimation model are linked to the study sample within the context of sectorial benchmark ratios of a specific economic environment. A notable congruence emerges between the findings of financial analysis, particularly in the domain of financial equilibrium scrutiny and the improvement of the financial standing of the focal institution, and the results obtained from the assessment of the efficiency of bank lending processes using Z-score models. Scientific novelty. For the evaluation of loans applicant via Z-score based on financial ratios and financial statement, it is necessary to reformulate scoring models to align with the Algerian business environment, given their critical importance in evaluating loan applications from several clients applying for such financial requests, particularly from the perspective of commercial banks. Initially, the author undertook an analysis of Saidal’s financial situation to identify potential insolvency risks. Subsequently, however, through this study, we reassessed its situation after entering into international partnership contracts with international pharmaceutical laboratories. This is particularly significant given the inherent risks associated with pharmaceutical products, including: quick expiration, scientific and technological obsolescence, and intense scientific competition among pharmaceutical factories in the field of innovation, after the Covid-19. Practical value. The study aims to apply Z-scoring models in one of the leading Algerian company in pharmaceutical production “SAIDAL Group”, following an analysis of its financial stability and tracking its financial status before and after the COVID-19 period. Through a comparative approach, the author compared the digital field of institutional failure between the outputs of financial equilibrium analysis and scoring models. In this paper, the author tried to apply Z-scoring models to the accounting information of Saidal Complex after its listing on the Algerian stock exchange, against the backdrop of the Algerian government’s new policy aiming to involve commercial banks as intermediaries in stock market operations, in particular with the inclusion of Algerian Popular Loan Bank in the official market as one of the listed companies, given its leading role in providing investment loans to industrial institutions.

From Theory to Practice: Applying the Markowitz Model in Stock Portfolio Management under ESG

The study consisted of a month-long simulated stock market operation focusing on the comprehensive analysis of equity portfolio creation and management. Against the backdrop of growing concern for environmental protection, the S&P 500 Net Zero 2050 Climate Transition ESG Index was deemed the appropriate benchmark for the portfolios due to the average level of risk tolerance of customers. The investigation began with an in-depth assessment of macroeconomic and sector conditions, followed by careful selection of securities using both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. The portfolio was then optimized using the Markowitz model and subsequently managed using a variety of strategies, including trading, monitoring, and rebalancing. The subsequent phase of the research involves a rigorous evaluation of performance utilizing various metrics including single-period returns and the Sharpe ratio. The study culminates in a reflective analysis of the overall investment project. Despite the portfolio's underperformance against the benchmark, the project provides invaluable insights into the intricacies of stock market investment and portfolio management, accentuating the impact of market volatility and the significance of strategic asset allocation.

Mapping the knowledge structure of artificial neural network research in the stock market: a bibliometric analysis and future research pathways

PurposeIn past decades, artificial neural network (ANN) models have revolutionised various stock market operations due to their superior ability to deal with nonlinear data and garnered considerable attention from researchers worldwide. The present study aims to synthesize the research field concerning ANN applications in the stock market to a) systematically map the research trends, key contributors, scientific collaborations, and knowledge structure, and b) uncover the challenges and future research areas in the field.Design/methodology/approachTo provide a comprehensive appraisal of the extant literature, the study adopted the mixed approach of quantitative (bibliometric analysis) and qualitative (intensive review of influential articles) assessment to analyse 1,483 articles published in the Scopus and Web of Science indexed journals during 1992–2022. The bibliographic data was processed and analysed using VOSviewer and R software.FindingsThe results revealed the proliferation of articles since 2018, with China as the dominant country, Wang J as the most prolific author, “Expert Systems with Applications” as the leading journal, “computer science” as the dominant subject area, and “stock price forecasting” as the predominantly explored research theme in the field. Furthermore, “portfolio optimization”, “sentiment analysis”, “algorithmic trading”, and “crisis prediction” are found as recently emerged research areas.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study is a novel attempt that holistically assesses the existing literature on ANN applications throughout the entire domain of stock market. The main contribution of the current study lies in discussing the challenges along with the viable methodological solutions and providing application area-wise knowledge gaps for future studies.

The Influence of Markov Chain and Properties of Principal Component Solutions in The Analysis of Share Price Movements for Stock Market

The stock market performance and operation has been widely recognized as a significantly viable investment field in financial markets. Therefore, this paper studied stochastic analysis of Markov chain and PCA in the closing share price data of Access and Fidelity banks (2016-2022) through Nigeria Stock Exchange. The share prices were transformed into 3-steps transition probability matrix solution to cover this number of years. The striking focus of this is on two merged banks where their transition probability matrix was considered. The future share prices changes were known. The criteria of obtaining four share prices which formed from the two merged banks 2x2 matrices were given and analytical solution of principal component were considered for future stock price changes. From the solution matrix of two merged banks showed that the has the best probability of price increasing in the near future: 12%, best probability of reducing in future by 22% and best probability of no-change in the near future by 21% which is a tool for proper decision making in the day-to-day management of the bank; which shows it is profit making organization and are hopeful for future investment plans both short or

Technological advancements and noise trading: A case of investors’ sentiments at the Pakistan Stock Exchange

This study uses data from the KSE-100 stock index from 2009 to 2021 to investigate the influence of technological advancements, investors' sentiments, and behavioral factors on stock market inefficiency. The study employs a threshold regression model to distinguish between different thresholds of these factors and a Wald test is used to determine the significance of the variances among thresholds. The results indicate that technological advancements, investors' sentiments, and behavioral factors significantly affect the predictability of returns in the KSE-100 index. This study is unique in the context of Pakistan and provides a comprehensive framework for understanding stock market operations. The findings have practical applications for individuals, researchers, managers, institutions, and policymakers seeking to better understand the impact of technology, society, and behavioral biases on stock markets. Furthermore, this study provides unique insights into addressing the issue of market inefficiency by identifying the factors responsible for such behavior.

The Influence of Markov Chain and Properties of Principal Component Solutions in the Analysis of Share Price Movements for Stock Market

Purpose: Stock market performance and operation have been widely recognized as a viable investment field in financial markets. Therefore, this paper studied the stochastic analysis of the Markov chain and PCA in the closing share price data of Access and Fidelity banks (2016-2022) through the Nigeria Stock Exchange. The share prices were transformed into a 3-step transition probability matrix solution to cover this number of years.Methodology:This research uses the Markov chain method, which defines a stochastic process. Mathematically, a stochastic process can be defined as a collection of random variables ordered in time and determined at a series of time points that may be continuous or discrete.Findings:The criteria for obtaining four share prices formed from the two merged banks' 2x2 matrices were given, and analytical solutions of principal components were considered for future stock price changes.Implication: The solution matrix of the two merged banks showed that they have the best probability of price increasing shortly: 12%, the best probability of reducing in the future by 22%, and the best probability of no-change shortly by 21%, which is a tool for proper decision making in the day-to-day management of the bank; which shows it is profit making organization and are hopeful for future investment plans both short or long term respectively.

Financial deepening and equity investment in emerging markets

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of financial deepening on stock market development using equity investment. There is an increasing need for financial service expansion to improve equity investment, which will lead to better stock market operations. We identify the key financial deepening mechanisms in this study, such as broad money supply, credit to the private sector, and economic progress, and we use inflation as a moderating tool. The study spans the years 1981 through 2021. Because of the unit root result, we believe that the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and error correction model (ECM) are the most appropriate techniques for producing the most reliable results. The study's findings show that, in both the long and short runs, GDP has a positive impact on equity investment, implying that an improvement in the general economic situation can have a positive impact on equity investment. Similarly, in the short run, broad money supply has a positive and significant influence on equity investment, but not in the long run. Credit to the private sector, on the other hand, has a material negative effect on stock market development in the short run and becomes insignificant in the long run. These findings suggest that the government should pay closer attention to financial deepening indicators in order to improve equity investment, which is a major component of stock market capitalization. In line with the results, the government should make more funds available for private sector activities while also maintaining a stable money supply to meet economic demands.

Domestic Investors’ Socio-economic Experiences and the 2017 Stock Market Crisis in Lagos State, Nigeria

Globally, stock market crisis is a recurrent phenomenon to which Nigeria is not immune. The 2017 stock market crisis in Nigeria continues to affect the domestic investment profile. Previous studies on stock markets have focused largely on economic growth and foreign investors, neglecting the social dimensions of stock market crises. Therefore, this study examined domestic investors’ socio-economic experiences during the 2017 stock market crisis in Lagos, Nigeria. The Planned Behaviour Theory provided the framework, while a descriptive design was employed. Purposive and snowball sampling techniques were utilised to select three stockbroking firms and regulatory agencies based on their professional knowledge of stock market operations. Forty in- depth interviews were conducted, fourteen with clients of Cowry Assets Management Limited, thirteen with clients of Future review Financial Services Limited, and thirteen with clients of Greenwich Trust Limited. Six case studies were conducted, with two clients from each of the three selected stockbroking firms. Additionally, nine key informant interviews were conducted: three with staff from Nigerian Exchange Limited, three with staff from Securities and Exchange Commission, and one stockbroker from each of the three selected stockbroking firms. Data were content-analysed. During the 2017 stock market crisis, domestic investors had negative socio-economic experiences, including loss of lives and friendships, and disruption of marriages leading to separation, divorce and social order upheavals. The crisis caused socio-economic disruptions that affected lifestyles and well-being among domestic investors. Transparency in the market is necessary to restore investors’ confidence

The Relationship Between Investor Sentiment and Stock Market Price

With the birth of behavioral finance, more and more researchers have brought the individual psychology of investors and the behaviors that it fosters into the theoretical research scope of finance. From the perspective of micro individual behavior, they try to explain the causes of complex phenomena in the financial market with psychological factors such as behavioral motivation. This paper mainly analyzes the impact of investor sentiment on the price volatility of China's stock market. On the basis of combing the existing theoretical literature, based on the daily Chinese investor sentiment index published by the National Development Research Institute of Peking University and the return of the CSI 300 Index, the research hypothesis is put forward. First, the GARCH model is constructed to calculate the daily volatility of the return of the CSI 300 Index and the Granger causality is used to test the relationship between investor sentiment, stock price return and volatility. Secondly, the paper empirically analyzes the relationship between investor sentiment and stock price volatility by constructing VAR model, and finds that investor sentiment will indeed have the same impact on the price volatility of China's stock market, and the stock price volatility will react on investor sentiment and form an interactive impact, which will gradually weaken over time. Finally, from investors The government and other aspects put forward suggestions to further improve the operation of China's stock market.

Generalized Methods on Access Bank Share Price Changes and Variations in Nigeria Stock Market

Purpose: Stock market performance and operation have been widely recognized as a viable investment field in financial markets. This paper studied the share price movement of Access Bank, PLC.Methodology:The share price data was subjected to a 3-step transition matrix for independent share prices, which enabled us to proffer precise conditions for obtaining future share price changes and placed criteria that enabled us to come up with a 2x2 matrix solution of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the share price of Access bank.Findings: The solution matrix of the stochastic analysis showed that Access Bank PLC has the best probability of price increasing shortly by 12%, the best probability of reducing in the future by 21%, and the best probability of no change shortly by 20%.Implication:More so, an increase in the trading days also increases the value of future share price changes, and other statistical variables were also found. Finally, the influences of the relevant parameters of stock market variables were effectively discussed in this paper.

CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS WITH REFERENCE TO RECENT TRENDS

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are increasingly being used all over the world to improve the competitiveness of companies by gaining more market share, widening the portfolio to reduce business risk, entering new markets and geographies, and capitalizing on economies of scale, etc. In India, too, they have become a matter of everyday occurrence. They are the subject of interest counting for different individuals, such as business executives who are looking for potential merger partners, investment bankers who manage mergers, lawyers who advise the parties, regulators concerned with stock market operations and growing business sectors in the economy, and researchers who want to understand these concepts better. It is also said that a lot of mergers are simply acquisitions. One company purchases another and integrates it into its own business model. Many statistics on mergers are presented for the combined mergers and acquisitions (M&A) that are occurring as a result of this misuse of the term merger, because of which mergers and acquisitions can be treated as the same even though they are different from each other. The trend of merger and acquisition in India began in 1988 when Swaraj Paul attempted a hostile takeover of DCM Ltd. and Escorts Ltd.[1] at a time when the only mergers in India were friendly family mergers or friendly deals with pre-negotiated terms. These mergers were few due to the unfavourable provisions of the Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Act, 1969 (MRTP Act, 1969).

The Yield and Volatility of Financial Markets in the UK and China under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Russia-Ukraine conflict was officially fought on 24 February 2022, heightening international tensions and causing externalities to the global economy, resulting in the ensuing volatility of crude oil prices. Based on the broader context that the Russia-Ukraine conflict imposes significant downward pressure on international financial markets, this paper aims at finding the potential tie between stock markets volatility and increasing crude oil prices based on the timeline of this regional conflict and analyses the logic behind the relationship, using evidence from the UK and China as well as VAR and ARMA-GARCH models. The findings show that in terms of the fundamentals of stock market operations, in the short period following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, accompanied by a surge in oil prices, both in the UK and China markets, stock markets fluctuated dramatically and moved downwards rapidly over a short period of time. However, over time it is not possible to intuitively judge the medium to long-term impact on equity markets of the rise in oil prices caused by this situation. For policy makers, there is a package of monetary, fiscal and tax policies that can be implemented to counter the externalities caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is worth noting, however, that any policy has a corresponding cost. For investors, investment behavior depends on one's level of risk appetite, but the general advice is to avoid relevant investments in the short term in the event of an outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Intelligent candlestick forecast system for financial time-series analysis using metaheuristics-optimized multi-output machine learning

The effective prediction of stock market prices and trends is a critical topic in financial research for investors and stakeholders who wish to increase their return on investment. Motivated by highly unstable stock market targets and the continuous trading system that has been launched by Taiwan’s stock market, this work develops an intelligent candlestick forecast system (ICFS), which combines the advantages of three forecasting techniques — single-point, interval value, and trend forecasting. The ICFS is simple and intuitive, using a sliding-window metaheuristic-optimized multi-output least squares support vector regression hybrid model scheme to forecast simultaneously four types of price information that are represented on a candlestick chart. Three parameter-free metaheuristic algorithms, namely teaching-learning-based optimization (TLBO), symbiotic organisms search (SOS), and forensic-based investigation (FBI), are in turn used to optimize the hyperparameters of the multi-output least squares support vector regression (MLSSVR) model, to increase its accuracy and stability in predicting stock prices. Benchmark data from relevant studies are used to compare the forecast performances of previously developed and the three proposed hybrid models. Among all tested models, the FBI-MLSSVR greatly outperforms the others in forecasting Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) indexes, Taiwan’s exchange-traded funds, and major listed construction companies. A floating dollar-cost averaging strategy for maximizing returns while minimizing investment risks is proposed and compared with traditional dollar-cost averaging and the buy-and-hold strategy. The profitability of the predictions made using the proposed system is verified against actual stock market operations. The ICFS is packaged as a visualized expert system and independent application program for the convenience of users, who can intuitively run it and interpret its forecasts. Therefore, this study is highly practical by providing stakeholders with an easy-to-use and accurate predictive tool.

Iraq Stock Exchange Performance Determinants: A literature review

Financial markets have a significant role in economic development; Iraq's stock exchange trades and mobilize financial resources as the only stock market operating in Iraq. All statistics indicate the progress of the Iraq stock exchange compared to the previous period, especially before the lockdown due to covid in (2019). However, the Iraqi stock exchange capitalization still did not get to one percent of the total capitalization of the entire Arab financial markets. Furthermore, past studies' results concluded that there is still no consistent or inconclusive relationship between the macroeconomics variables and the Iraq stock exchange performance. Therefore, Iraq is still a solid context to explore the linkage between these variables, mainly due to Iraq's economy as one of the economies having substantial oil reserves in the MENA region. Also, the Iraq stock exchange needs to activate all ways to make the information available or access information by all investors to make the Iraqi stock exchange efficient to prevent the possibility of achieving abnormal profits by some investors.

Dimensions and Implications of Domestic Credit In Iraq

The paper aims to extrapolate the nature of domestic credit in Iraq by focusing on the period 2011/14 and focusing on the study's core focus. It explores the overall effects on the variables of economic activity and the population's overall well-being. The results indicate that credit changes in Iraq have not played a clear role under the reality of banks and their work as they are still constrained by many restrictions of an economic and political nature. Nevertheless, domestic credit is critical for encouraging banking and stock market operations and recruiting FDI, which enhances the banking system's and stock market's competence, impacting economic activity and energy consumption. It also enables increased access to credit and financial services and the building of cash for future investment since providing credit is a critical component in economic development. Nevertheless, the results reveal unequivocally that industrialization and financial development are necessary components of Iraq's long-run economic success.

DEVELOPMENT FEATURES OF THE UKRAINIAN STOCK MARKET AS A COMPONENT OF STATE FINANCIAL SECURITY

Introduction. Peculiarities of functioning and structure of the stock market of Ukraine play an important role in ensuring the state economic security and, in particular, financial. The purpose of the article is to analyze the state and features of the modern stock market of Ukraine, to investigate its impact on the state of financial security of the country. Results. Imbalances in the primary securities market are due to the small number and volume of issues, as well as the predominance of issuers of state banking institutions and state corporations, which carried out the issue to keep banks at the required level of capital and replenishment. The volume and number of bond issues are significantly lower compared to stocks. There are currently four exchanges in Ukraine, but primary stock market operations are focused on the PFTS. The secondary securities market of Ukraine is more developed in Ukraine (the total amount of transactions is more than 90% of the volume of exchange contracts during the entire analyzed period). Transactions are carried out mainly on stock exchanges – PFTS and “Perspective”. The trend of the results of the secondary stock market has improved (significantly decreases the value of indicators – linear deviation, variance, oscillation coef­ficient), however, the value of the oscillation coefficient still indicates a lack of homogeneous and balanced environment. Approximations to the state of homogeneity can be characterized by stock exchange contracts concluded on government bonds. At the same time, the volume of concluding exchange contracts is generally insignificant, and the share of exchange contracts on government bonds in total is approaching almost 100%; therefore, it can be concluded that the entire stock market is characterized by significant heterogeneity and imbalance. Conclusions. The stock market of Ukraine does not fulfill its key function – investment. The stock market of Ukraine is characterized by pronounced imbalances. At the same time, it should be emphasized that the structure of the stock market is characterized by dynamic processes, so the creation of a fully balanced environment can not be a priority. The stock market of Ukraine mostly serves the needs of the public sector of the economy and in no way contributes to the de­velopment of not only the real but also the financial sector of the economy. That is, the security of the stock market is directly related to the security of debt and budget, which are components of the financial security of the state.

Information Support of Investor Behavior in the Stock Market

The Ukrainian stock market being at the initial phase of formation, its low performance results in the inattractiveness of the Ukrainian economy for domestic and foreign investment. With poor awareness of theoretical principles underlying stock market operations, participants of the domestic stock market require advanced professional skills and competencies, especially ones related with information support. 
 In focus of the article are applications of statistical methods in decision-making by investors in the stock market. A detailed description of the stock market performance in Ukraine is given. The barriers on the way to obtaining comprehensive information on partners, subject of transaction and stock market conjuncture in Ukraine are determined. A scheme of statistical support for stock market analysis and forecasting is proposed; the objectives of statistical analysis of the stock market for various investor categories are outlined; the phases of assessment of the issue’s investment attractiveness are determined, with providing its algorithm. The types and causes of risks immanent in the stock market events are summed up. 
 The proposed approach allows for creating and using statistical information to justify the choice of market segment and a particular issuer whose securities, once purchased, should contribute to the investor’s goal. Statistical assessment of phenomena and processes in the stock market and its modeling and forecasting on the appropriate statistical basis will increase the efficiency of investment, which should have a positive impact on the economic development.

Instability in Indian Stock Market in the Backdrop of Economic Reforms: A Conceptual Study

Stock market is an integral part of financial markets and a constituent of financial system. Performance of the stock market is a barometer of economic growth. A stable market with less volatility is expected to perform better in the short run. However, in the long run, a stable market may turn into a stagnant one since possibilities of speculation would reduce in such market. Out of several reasons that may cause instability in the market, economic openness is the most crucial one. In this backdrop, the paper is an attempt to set a theoretical underpinning on financial system and financial market from global and Indian point of view with special reference to the stock market operations in the country. The paper also delves into the reasons and possible solutions of stock market instability in the backdrop of economic interdependencies among countries.

Exchange Rate, Stock Price and Trade Volume in US-China Trade War during COVID-19: An Empirical Study

This article aims to examine the influence of international trade wars on the majority of stock market operations, both directly and indirectly affected. The impact of the trade war on the exchange rates of the participating countries was similarly negative. This article seeks to trace the conversion standards' footprints in the United States, China, and India using several indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Dow Jones index, and Nifty 50. The cost of closing down various indices on a daily basis, as well as the conversion standard upsides of the participating currencies, are all examined in this study. Furthermore, utilizing the OLS and GARCH models, this work provides insights into measuring the uncertainties about the impact of exchanging scale on financial exchange. According to the findings of OLS, changes in the swapping scale have had a minor impact on the daily closing costs of stock records in the individual countries. The conversion standard, on the other hand, has a major impact on trade volumes in all three stock markets. When compared to the SSE and DJI equities, the GARCH model predicts that the contingent shift will be less shocking, resulting in a smaller impact on Nifty trade volume. To replicate the impact of trade wars during the Covid-19 crisis, the final results imply that data from domestic and international financial transactions must include securities market transactions.

DIRECTIONS OF OFFENSE PREVENTION IN THE STOCK MARKET OF UKRAINE

Abstract. The article considers the legislative and regulatory documents which outline the features of detecting offenses in the stock market of Ukraine. The main offenses in the domestic stock market have been formed, and the subjects, objects and types of sanctions for offenses have been considered. It is determined that the main body in the field of detection and prevention of stock market violations is the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC), which considers cases of offenses, regulates the activities of issuers and financial intermediaries, prepares reports on stock market operations, carries out licensing of professional participants and provides cooperation with state institutions, state and local authorities in the field of crime prevention. An analysis of offenses in the stock market of Ukraine during 2017—2019 has been carried out. The main directions of stock market offenses prevention are outlined, namely: imposition of financial sanctions, revocation or suspension of licenses of professional participants, issuance of orders and resolutions, increase of fines in the stock market, prevention of price manipulation. Proposals were made to improve the activities of the Stock market infrastructure development agency, in particular to form a single complete and detailed base of issuers, professional participants, offenses, foreign investors and large securities holders. It is proposed to reduce violations in the stock market through active cooperation with the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO). In general, we can conclude that there is no critical situation in the field of offenses in the stock market of Ukraine, as evidenced by analytical studies.
 Keywords: offenses, stock market, license, issuer, professional market participants, National Securities and Stock Market Commission.
 JEL Classification G18, K22, K40, K49
 Formulas: 0; fig.: 4; tabl.: 0; bibl.: 16.