Stock Market Integration Research Articles

Crises and Stock Market Integration: Evidence from BRICS Countries

This paper examines the stock market integration in BRICS (a group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries and explores the effect of two major events; COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine war on the stock market linkages of these countries. The study is based on weekly observations of BSE SENSEX (India), Bovespa Index (Brazil), MOEX Index (Russia), Shanghai Composite Index (China), and JSE All Share Index (South Africa) collected from Yahoo Finance and Wallstreet Journal from January 2016 to December 2023. We utilize multivariate DCC GARCH (dynamic conditional correlation) model to discern the time varying conditional correlations (TVCCs) between these equity markets. Thereafter, these TVCCs are regressed on the dummy variables to capture the existence of contagion effects among the stock markets of BRICS countries during these major events. The findings of this study indicate the existence of co-movement in the stock markets prices of BRICS countries during the sample period. We find existence of significant contagion effects among the BRICS countries during the COVID period. Results show a significant downfall in the TVCCs between BRICS stock market returns following the beginning of Russia - Ukraine war.

Emerging Stock Market Integration and Corporate Bond Credit Spreads

ABSTRACT Stock market integration into the world financial markets has been a common and important practice in emerging countries over the past several decades. Relying on the staggered inclusion of China A-shares into MSCI indexes, we employ a difference-in-differences analysis and find that bond credit spreads of firms significantly decrease after the firms’ stock securities are included in the MSCI indexes. We also find that stock market integration reduces credit spreads by improving the stock liquidity, firm reputation, and alleviating information asymmetry. The effect is more pronounced among firms with greater financial constraints or higher performance volatility. Overall, our study provides evidence that emerging stock market integration can generate bond market benefits for firms.

Cointegration and causality relationship of Indian stock market with selected world markets.

Background: The purpose of this study is to explore the trends and causes of established and emerging nations' stock market integration with India. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) indices act as a counterweight to international market indices. This study investigates the sustained interest of foreign investors in the Indian stock market in the wake of capital market reforms, as well as whether it moves in tandem with other markets in Asia and the United States. Methods: Our study examined the possibility of cross-country cointegration between the largest economies and indices around the world using multiple financial econometric models, such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Unit Root, Correlation, and Johansen Cointegration. Results: The findings of this study significantly support the notion that Indian and international financial markets are highly integrated. Vector error correction model indicates that the Indian market (NSE) is highly cointegrated with the US market (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations) and increased volatility signifies global contagion. Conclusion: A cursory examination of the data reveals distinct investment and portfolio diversification options for global investors. This could assist regulators in formulating more effective rules regarding price discovery processes.

Impact of Stock Market Integration on Industrial Corporate Investment in Nigeria: An Empirical Study (1986-2023)

Nigeria, a sub-Saharan African nation, is endowed with an abundance of natural resources, particularly those needed for industrial purposes. Despite this, the present level of output in the industrial sector in Nigeria is too low, particularly when it comes to investment undertaking by corporate investors. Therefore, the study examined the effect of stock market integration on industrial corporate investment in Nigeria from 1986-2023. Data used were sourced from the Central bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), bound test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The ADF estimate indicated that money supply and all share index were integrated of order one; while, corporate investment, stock market integration, real exchange rate, and lending interest rate were integrated of order zero. The F-value for the bound test estimate was much higher than upper bound of critical value at 5% conventional level; therefore, suggesting a long-run link between the use variables. The short-run estimates showed that stock market integration, real exchange rate and all share index were significant with direct effect on corporate investment; while, money supply and lending interest rate were significant also with indirect effects. Furthermore, long-run estimate showed that money supply and all share index were significant with direct effect on corporate investment; while, real exchange rate and lending interest rate were significant with indirect effects. This suggests that stock market integration currently witnessing in Nigeria is tentative. The study concluded that the current growth witnessing by industrial corporate investment in Nigeria due to stock market integration is not sustainable. Therefore, recommended that the Nigerian Exchange Group’s management should ensure that stock market price exhibit low volatility rate by making sure that its stocks management policies reflect best global stock exchange practice.

The mediating effect of trust on financial development and stock market comovement in BRICS economies

This study examines the effects of financial development on the stock market comovement of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) on the one hand and the US Dow Jones on the other. Its main goal is to find out if trust has a mediating effect on financial development using data from the World Bank and the World Value Survey (WVS). Panel data analysis along with ARDL methods helped the authors obtain robust results. It was found that financial development plays a significant role in determining stock market comovement among the countries in question and that trust also has a moderating impact. The analysis was extended to the institutional and market factors of financial development. The paper introduces trust as a mediating variable that positively affects financial development, which in turn promotes stock market integration and comovement. Its results imply that investors should consider financial development and trust levels of a country when considering portfolio allocation for global diversification purposes, especially in emerging markets. Countries with insufficient trust levels, like Brazil, could benefit from improving their trust score through enhancing financial development and stability.

The effect of Russia-Ukraine war on stock market linkages beyond its borders: evidence from Latin America

ABSTRACT Previous studies have primarily examined the impact of wars on stock markets within their borders. Our study extends this to countries that are not directly involved in the war. Specifically, we employ TVP-VAR connectedness network approach to investigate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on stock market linkages in Latin America. We find that there was a marginal increase in stock market linkages in Latin America at the onset of the war. However, they returned to its pre-war levels, implying the resilience of Latin American stock market segmentation to war outside its borders. While this result suggests a potential opportunity for international investors to diversify geopolitical risk, we further find indirect effects of the war on the region through commodity markets, which may limit the diversification benefits. While previous studies suggest that external shocks such as pandemics and wars increase stock market integration, the results in this study show that they do not have uniform effects on stock market integration. Instead, our study highlights the importance of commodity markets in the investigation of stock market integration.

The impact of bank money on stock market integration: evidence from the Eurozone

This paper explores the impact of monetary policy on the integration of the equity markets of the five largest economies of the Eurozone. We show that a rise in leverage and accommodating monetary policies significantly affects the probability of simultaneous stock market crashes. Moreover, we find that an increasing loan-to-base ratio divergence has a destabilizing effect on equity markets. Our findings are instrumental for international investors, who might operate under the assumption that Eurozone stock markets exhibit stable correlations during non-crisis periods, bolstered by the prevailing monetary regime. We suggest implementing a probability threshold as a macroprudential tool to manage latent correlations and ensure effective risk management.

Similarity Measures between Buying and Selling Prices of Various Exchange Rates with the inclusion of Multidimensionality and Multicollinearity

This paper introduces a new statistical model, the multidimensional measurement error model with multicollinearity, to study the relationship between buying and selling prices of foreign exchange rates of various currencies. Such a model is needed due to the possible rise in multidimensionality and multicollinearity issues that may occur due to the movement of the financial markets towards stock market integration of various countries since the occurrences of the financial crisis as well as the part result of globalization. As this integration involves the participation of various countries, it will affect the foreign exchange rate. Hence, the analyses are performed on seven currencies against the Malaysian Ringgit where four models’ performances are compared. From this research, it can be concluded that the proposed model comparatively performs better than the other models in representing the relationship of the stationary prices and performs as well as existing models towards non-stationary prices. It can also be seen that the Japanese Yen is the currency that has the strongest influence and closer similar trends towards other currencies while the Great British Pound showed otherwise.

Sharia stock market integration of oic countries before and during the crisis of the russian-ukraine war

An integrated stock market has negative impacts, such as accelerating co-movement, which is vulnerable to economic shocks and global market crises on the domestic market. One of the crises in 2022 was the Russia-Ukraine war which impacted the stock market, including Sharia stocks which were believed to be more resistant to the shocks of the global crisis. This study examines the development, integration, and response of OIC countries five Islamic stock markets in the Russia-Ukraine war. The method used is VAR/VECM on the DJIMMT25, SPSADS, SPSUUAEDS, JII, DJIMT, SPBMIR, and SPBMIU indices. The results show the same movement in the UAE and Saudi Arabia stock markets, while Turkey experienced a positive trend during the war. The Islamic stock market of the OIC countries during the Russia-Ukraine war was cointegrated. In contrast, the Malaysian stock market influenced the Islamic stock markets of the other four OIC countries. The IRF results show a permanent effect on the volatility of the Islamic stock market in OKI countries due to the shocks given. However, the volatility response is relatively small because the stock market itself dominates the contribution of shocks.

Chinese stock market integration with developed world: A portfolio diversification analysis

This study investigates integration dynamics between the Chinese stock market and major developed counterparts—Australia, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US—focusing on portfolio diversification. Using a comprehensive analytical approach from 2012 to 2022, encompassing events like the Belt and Road Initiative, the Shanghai market crash, US-China trade tensions, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the research employs descriptive statistics, unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and VECM-based Granger Causality Tests. Findings indicate modest integration, endorsing diversified portfolios for developed country investors due to higher returns in China with acceptable risk. Unit root analysis confirms cointegration with developed indices, indicating relatively low integration. Granger Causality Tests reveal bidirectional causality, emphasizing mutual influence. Notably, no causal link exists between the US and China, possibly due to regulatory disparities and the trade war. The study enhances understanding of Chinese stock market dynamics, supporting global economic intertwining and urging further openness of China's domestic shares for economic growth.

Stock Market Integration among Trading Partners

This study makes an attempt to analyse the dynamics of integrating relationship shared by Indian and Chinese stock market for the period ranging from January 01, 2002 to June 30, 2021. Prominent stock indices namely BSE SENSEX index of Bombay Stock Exchange Limited, India and Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SCI) of Shanghai Stock Exchange Limited, China were considered. Johansen Cointegration test was used to analyse the long term integration shared by the stock markets. Granger causality test was employed to know the causal relation shared by the stock markets. Presence of long term integration and unidirectional causal relation between the stock markets was found. It may be inferred that investment diversification among these markets may not provide fruitful returns to the investors in long run. Presence of causality from BSESENSEX to SCI and absence of causality from SCI to BSESENSEX suggests significant flow of information from Indian stock market to the Chinese stock market but not vice-versa. Findings of the study also suggests that extent of connectedness shared by the Indian and Chinese market does not vary too much with time. The findings revealed that although the financial markets of trading partners share significant integration but the intensity of trade does not impact the extent of financial linkages shared by the nations. These implications may provide significant insights to the investors, fund’s managers, policymakers and other market players.

DYNAMIC LINKAGES BETWEEN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND STOCK MARKET INTEGRATION: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SAARC REGION

This study attempts to empirically test whether the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in developed economies affects stock market integration across developed and developing countries. We find that the correlations appear to be time-varying and are being influenced by financial crises. The EPU of the developed economies has a negative impact on their stock market interdependence with Pakistan, but a positive impact on stock market correlations between India and the US, India and the UK, Bangladesh and the EU, Sri Lanka and the EU, and no impact on correlations between India and the EU, Bangladesh, and the US. Additional robustness tests reveal that the global financial crisis (GFC) has a substantial influence on all stock market correlation pairs, apart from any pairs with India, whereas the Asian financial crisis (AFC) only has a significant impact on the Sri Lanka–EU relationship. Finally, the study suggests that the EPU in the US, UK and EU has a great influence on the interdependence of the stock markets between South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and developed nations.

Stock Market Integration Through Internationally Tradable Assets

The study examines the influence of tradable assets in integrating the Indian stock market with global stock markets. The movement in the foreign indices has a direct spillover effect on the assets cross-listed on these exchanges in the form of American depository receipts and global depositary receipts, and the effect is simultaneously shifted to the domestic market index due to the dual listing of domestic assets. The findings of the study indicate that there is a prolonged effect of all markets combined on the Indian market during the period, and that the long-term effect between the Indian and US markets is also consistent in the long run, while the Wald test also supports the presence of a short-term effect between the Indian and US markets. Long-term and short-term causation patterns are lacking in the Luxembourg market, illustrating the partial integration of the financial markets. The present study is instrumental for investors in identifying exogenous markets for portfolio diversification, thus enabling businesses to have a global reach. JEL Codes:J C32, C58, D53

Integration of Pakistan's stock market with the stock markets of top ten developed economies

This study examines the integration of Pakistan's Stock Market with the stock markets of the top ten largest economies in the world—USA, China, Japan, Germany, the UK, India, France, Italy, Brazil, and Canada—from January 2015 to October 2020. To examine long- and short run integration, this study employed Johansen and Juselius co-integration and pair-wise Granger causality tests. In the long run, the results indicated that Pakistan's Stock Market is not integrated with these markets. This implies that the market is more attractive in portfolio diversification for international investors, and vice versa. In the short run, the results revealed that, except for China, Pakistan's stock market integrates with the remaining nine markets. However, Pakistan's stock market exhibits a bidirectional relationship with the USA, Japan, Germany, the UK, and France in the lead-lag relationship. However, its relationship with India, Italy, Brazil, and Canada is unidirectional, with Pakistan's stock market leading, while these markets are following. For Pakistani investors, China is the optimal market, and vice versa. Importantly, our findings help policymakers to comprehend Pakistan's dynamic relationship with its trading partners. To the best of our knowledge, no prior study has employed advanced techniques to address the time-varying correlation among the selected markets. By determining Pakistan's stock market integration with its trading partners, this study aimed to fill this empirical literature gap.

On the Dynamic Changes in the Global Stock Markets’ Network during the Russia–Ukraine War

Analysis of the relationships among global stock markets is crucial for international investors, regulators, and policymakers, particularly during a crisis. Complex network theory was applied to analyze the relationship between global stock markets during the Russia–Ukraine war. Daily data from 55 stock markets from 6 August 2021 to 23 September 2023 were retrieved and used to investigate the changes in global stock market networks. The sample period was divided into 22 subsamples, using a 100-day rolling window rolled forward a trading month, and then long-range correlations based on distance matrices were calculated. These distance matrices were utilized to construct stock market networks. Moreover, minimum spanning trees (MSTs) were extracted from these financial networks for analytical purposes. Based on topological and structural analysis, we identified important/central nodes, distinct communities, vulnerable/stable nodes, and changes thereof with the escalation of war. The empirical findings reveal that the Russia–Ukraine war impacted the global stock markets’ network. However, its intensity varied with changes in the region and the passage of time due to the level of stock market integration and stage of war escalation, respectively. Stock markets of France, Germany, Canada, and Austria remained the most centrally connected within communities; surprisingly, the USA’s stock market is not on this list.

A study on the co-movement and influencing factors of stock markets between India and the other Asia–Pacific countries

PurposeThe aim of this study is to examine the nature and determinants of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan) over the period 1991–2021.Design/methodology/approachUnit root tests, the dynamic conditional correlation-Glosten Jagannathan and Runkle-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GJR-GARCH), pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effects models are employed for the analysis.FindingsThe empirical results show that the DCC between each pair of sample countries is less than 0.5, indicating weak ties between the pairs of sample countries. Also, the DCC between India and other Asia–Pacific stock markets is positive and low, implying low level of integration. The correlation between India and China stock markets is found to be the highest, implying significant level of integration. The main reason for it would be strong economic linkages and bilateral trade relationship between India and China. Moreover, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate (IR), consumer price index (CPI)-inflation and money supply (MS) differentials are the major driver of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries.Practical implicationsThe findings of the study have important implications for investors, portfolio managers and policymakers. It is found that the DCC between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (considered in the study) except China is low, which indicates weak ties between the pairs of sample countries. This implies that the Indian stock market provides good investment opportunities for foreign investors. Also, investors and portfolio managers can attain more diversified benefits and can minimize country risk by investing across Asia–Pacific countries. Further, knowledge about the factors that integrate the Indian stock market with the other Asia–Pacific stock markets will help policymakers frame suitable economic and financial stabilization policies.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the extant literature: first, by examining the linkages of Indian stock market with other Asia–Pacific countries; second, although previous studies confirmed the existence of linkages among the various stock markets, few researchers pay attention to the factors driving the process of stock market integration. This study provides additional evidence by examining the significant macroeconomic factors driving the process of such integration in the Asia–Pacific region considered under the study.

Stock market integration in emerging markets in the spectre of the global financial crisis

Stock market integration in emerging markets in the spectre of the global financial crisis

Analysing stock market integration in top five global economies

Analysing stock market integration in top five global economies

Financial Integration and Variance Decomposition of Asian Stock Market: Evidence from India

Manuscript type: Research paper Research aims: International investments made in non-integrated economies provide benefits of portfolio diversification, but investment made in integrated economies may lead to oscillations due to volatility spillover. Therefore, the knowledge of market linkage of an economy is imperative for investors, as well as regulators. In this context, the present paper investigates the financial integration of the Indian stock market with China, Hong Kong, Japan, UK and USA. Design/Methodology/Approach: To examine the financial integration in the long run, closing daily indices of leading stock markets of respective countries have been analysed through the Johansen cointegration method over a period of 20 years from 2002 to 2022. The vector error correction model has been applied to examine whether market equilibrium can be restored after an infusion of shock. The short run linkage has been investigated through a causality test. Further the possibility of volatility spillover has been examined through variance decomposition and impulse response function. Research findings: The results show cointegration among the selected markets, which indicates the possibility of convergence towards market equilibrium in the long run. The stock markets of India and USA were observed to have a bidirectional causal relationship indicating lesser chances of benefits from international portfolio diversification. The results reveal the sensitivity of the Indian stock market to innovations in the UK and USA. However, no significant influence of the Hong Kong, Japanese, and Chinese stock markets has been observed on the Indian stock market. Further, the Indian stock market has a significant contribution to the volatility of other stock markets, except the Chinese stock market. Theoretical contribution/Originality: The present study is crucial owing to two prominent reasons. Firstly, the linkage between various financial markets is very dynamic and needs to be studied in the present context. Secondly, the linkage of Indian economy with other countries has increased manifolds in recent few years so it will be fruitful to analyse the linkage of Indian economy with other economies. Practitioner/Policy implications: The findings are useful to investors while designing international portfolios to reap diversification benefits. The results are fruitful for market regulatory bodies to mitigate the adverse impact of volatility spillover. Research limitation/Implications: The study can be extended to other markets, monthly data and different sub-periods

Stock Market Integration and Corporate Investment in Nigeria: A Critical Analysis

Low level of corporate investment in Nigeria coupled with poor financial base of a single stock exchange market system bring the need for the study to critically examined the effect of stock market integration on corporate investment in Nigeria from 1986 to 2022. The study adopted Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The data used for this study were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Statistical Bulletin (2022). The ADF showed that the real exchange rate, lending interest rate, and trade openness were all integrated of order zero (∆ = 0); while, stock market integration and corporate investment were integrated of order one (∆ = 1). The ADF result showed that stock market integration exhibited a non-stability trend over the years, real exchange rate showed a negative sign but non-significant at 5%; while, lending interest rate and trade openness was negative and significant. The study concluded that stock market integration was volatile over the years which limited the rate of impacting corporate investment in Nigeria; while, lesser interest rate and trade liberation promote corporate investment. The study recommended that in order to fast ease stock market integration, which is crucial for economic progress, the Nigerian Exchange Group NGX should aim toward ensuring that each listed firm on the market have a strong market capitalization through encouraging different ownership structure to possess their respective stock value