Stochastic Model Predictive Control Formulation Research Articles

Successive Linearization based Stochastic Model Predictive Control for batch processes described by DAEs

This paper presents a formulation of Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) for control of batch processes modeled by nonlinear Differential algebraic Equations (DAEs). In presence of additive stochastic disturbances, states become stochastic variables and measurements are also corrupted with noise. Hence, to obtain refined state estimates we employ DAE-Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Linear prediction model obtained by successive linearization is used in the SMPC formulation. Our proposed SMPC solves a chance constrained optimization problem in receding horizon window to calculate future control moves with pre-specified degree of constraint violation for trajectory tracking. Further, the probabilistic constraints are converted to hard constraints by accommodating necessary back-off. We present a simulation case study of batch transesterification reactor modeled by non-linear DAEs to validate the proposed SMPC framework.

Stock Trading via Feedback Control: Stochastic Model Predictive or Genetic?

We seek a discussion about the most suitable feedback control structure for stock trading under the consideration of proportional transaction costs. Suitability refers to robustness and performance capability. Both are tested by considering different one-step ahead prediction qualities, including the ideal case, correct prediction of the direction of change in daily stock prices and the worst-case. Feedback control structures are partitioned into two general classes: stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) and genetic. For the former class three controllers are discussed, whereby it is distinguished between two Markowitz- and one dynamic hedging-inspired SMPC formulation. For the latter class five trading algorithms are disucssed, whereby it is distinguished between two different moving average (MA) based, two trading range (TR) based, and one strategy based on historical optimal (HistOpt) trajectories. This paper also gives a preliminary discussion about how modified dynamic hedging-inspired SMPC formulations may serve as alternatives to Markowitz portfolio optimization. The combinations of all of the eight controllers with five different one-step ahead prediction methods are backtested for daily trading of the 30 components of the German stock market index DAX for the time period between November 27, 2015 and November 25, 2016.

Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Building Climate Control

In this brief paper, a Stochastic Model Predictive Control formulation tractable for large-scale systems is developed. The proposed formulation combines the use of Affine Disturbance Feedback, a formulation successfully applied in robust control, with a deterministic reformulation of chance constraints. A novel approximation of the resulting stochastic finite horizon optimal control problem targeted at building climate control is introduced to ensure computational tractability. This work provides a systematic approach toward finding a control formulation which is shown to be useful for the application domain of building climate control. The analysis follows two steps: 1) a small-scale example reflecting the basic behavior of a building, but being simple enough for providing insight into the behavior of the considered approaches, is used to choose a suitable formulation; and 2) the chosen formulation is then further analyzed on a large-scale example from the project OptiControl, where people from industry and other research institutions worked together to create building models for realistic controller comparison. The proposed Stochastic Model Predictive Control formulation is compared with a theoretical benchmark and shown to outperform current control practice for buildings.

Stabilizing Model Predictive Control of Stochastic Constrained Linear Systems

This paper investigates stochastic stabilization procedures based on quadratic and piecewise linear Lyapunov functions for discrete-time linear systems affected by multiplicative disturbances and subject to linear constraints on inputs and states. A stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) design approach is proposed to optimize closed-loop performance while enforcing constraints. Conditions for stochastic convergence and robust constraints fulfillment of the closed-loop system are enforced by solving linear matrix inequality problems off line. Performance is optimized on line using multistage stochastic optimization based on enumeration of scenarios, that amounts to solving a quadratic program subject to either quadratic or linear constraints. In the latter case, an explicit form is computable to ease the implementation of the proposed SMPC law. The approach can deal with a very general class of stochastic disturbance processes with discrete probability distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed SMPC formulation is shown on a numerical example and compared to traditional MPC schemes.

A Model Predictive Control Approach for Stochastic Networked Control Systems

In this paper we present a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) approach for networked control systems (NCSs) that are subject to time-varying sampling intervals and time-varying transmission delays. These network-induced uncertain parameters are assumed to be described by random processes, having a bounded support and an arbitrary continuous probability density function. Assuming that the controlled plant can be modeled as a linear system, we present a SMPC formulation based on scenario enumeration and quadratic programming that optimizes a stochastic performance index and provides closed-loop stability in the mean-square sense. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach.