Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease is the primary cause of mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Randomized controlled trials (RCT) have shown that Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) improve cardiovascular outcomes in T2DM patients, with greater therapeutic benefits observed in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. However, the effect of GLP1-RA therapy on cardiovascular outcomes has been inconsistent and the RCT have not been sufficiently powered to examine the effect of GLP1-RA on mortality or their therapeutic effect in different subgroups of T2DM patients. Purpose This study aimed to examine the effect of GLP1-RA therapy on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in a real-world cohort of T2DM patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods This study included T2DM patients with CAD who were treated with metformin at a daily dose of ≥ 1g for a period of ≥ 180 days. CAD was defined as ≥ 50% luminal stenosis in any coronary artery segment according to a nationwide angiography and angioplasty registry. We performed sequential emulated target trials at monthly intervals between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2020 to examine the effect of GLP1-RA therapy on major adverse cardiovascular outcomes (MACE), a composite of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included the individual components of MACE. Marginal structural models were used to compute pooled effect estimates. This was an intention-to-treat analysis with 5 years of follow-up for each emulated target trial. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust for confounding due to differences in patient demographics at baseline. Results This study consisted of 26,746 individuals who were treated with GLP1-RA and 74,638 controls. The 5-year cumulative risk of MACE was 27.7 % in the GLP1-RA group and 32.7 % in the control group (risk ratio 0.85 [95% confidence interval 0.82 – 0.88]). GLP1-RA therapy was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (risk ratio 0.76 [95% confidence interval 0.72 – 0.79]) and myocardial infarction (risk ratio 0.95 [95% confidence interval 0.89 – 1.00]). We found little or no effect of GLP1-RA therapy on the risk of ischemic stroke (risk ratio 1.13 [95% confidence interval 0.97 – 1.27]). Conclusions In this large real-world cohort of T2DM patients with established CAD, we observed that GLP1-RA therapy was associated with a lower risk of MACE, myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality.
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