The ground thermal regime has a profound impact on geomorphological processes and has been suggested to be particularly important for weathering processes in periglacial environments. Several frost-related damage indices have hitherto been developed to link climate and frost weathering potential in bedrock, although only for individual points or grid cells. Here, we model ground temperature and frost weathering potential in steep rock walls in the Jotunheimen Mountains, southern Norway, along a two-dimensional profile line for the Younger Dryas Stadial-Preboreal transition (c. 11.5 ka), the Holocene Thermal Maximum (c. 7.5 ka), the Little Ice Age (1750), and the 2010s. We use an established heat flow model and frost-cracking index based on the ice segregation theory. A central innovation of our model treatment is the implementation of ensemble simulations using distributions of automatically mapped crack radii in a rock wall, whereas previous frost damage models considered only a single characteristic crack radius. Our results allowed for the identification of sites with enhanced frost weathering. Such sites are typically found between rock walls and retreating glaciers, as well as in areas where snow depth changes abruptly, resulting in large thermal gradients. Hence, frost weathering may be highly active during glacier retreat, enhancing the damage to rock walls during deglaciation by adding to the damage from stress release. The coldest climates of the Younger Dryas Stadial-Preboreal transition and the Little Ice Age were generally most favorable for frost cracking. Such timing compares well with the knowledge about the timing of rockfall accumulations in Norway.
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