Regional Power Status Research Articles

Ideology, grand strategy and the rise and decline of Ethiopia's regional status

Abstract Ethiopia transformed from a state on the verge of collapse at the end of the Cold War into one of the world's fastest-developing economies and a regional power in the Horn of Africa in less than two decades. Since 2018 its economic, military and diplomatic status have, however, become significantly compromised yet again. What explains these significant fluctuations in regional power status? Drawing on policy documents and in-depth interviews with diplomatic, military and political officials from the Horn of Africa this article conducts a comparative analysis of the nature and variation of Ethiopia's regional power status under the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in 2000–2018 and the Prosperity Party (PP) in 2018–2022. The findings illustrate that the fluctuations in regional power were primarily caused by different grand strategies, which in turn reflected the priorities of the EPRDF's developmental state and the PP's restorative nationalist ideologies. These grand strategic concepts shaped Ethiopian government policies on key issues like defence doctrine, status-seeking, economic development, and rivalry and alliance management. These policies had a direct and significant impact on Ethiopia's state capacity, its ability to project military power and its diplomatic influence.

Regional powers and the politics of scale

This article discusses the usefulness of studying regional powers through a ‘politics-of-scale’ lens. We argue that this approach, borrowed from political geography, helps to better understand whether and how actors navigate the complex landscape of ‘scales’ in international politics. The combination of regional powers literature with political geography allows us to grasp the unexplored nuances of how power behaviour transcends regional and global levels and what actors (beyond the state) and processes constitute it. We test the empirical applicability of ‘politics-of-scale’ with the help of two country studies within the field of environmental politics: Japan, whose regional power status has been contested, but has used cooperation in the field of environment to establish itself as a regional leader within different spaces of its neighbourhood and Australia, which has reconstructed its climate regionalism in order support domestic politics and related to important domestic interest groups.

Concepts of World Order and their Implications for Regional Power Research

Regional powers attracted the heightened interest of researchers in international relations (IR) when the first signs of potential challenges to the unipolar world order appeared, but after a decade’s worth of efforts to make sense of regional power status, and regional ordering, it petered out, leaving hypotheses consistently unconfirmed. The paper investigates the interpretive framework – the concepts of world order – that underlay the unfruitful hypotheses. For this end, the paper re-examines four contemporary paradigms of world order – distinguished on the basis of their constituents and their concept of relations – from the viewpoint of regional power research. The approach offers a shift in viewpoints that may help foster the creation of a paradigm of world order that can account for the sub-global level. Furthermore, to realign theory and practice, the paper attempts to tackle the problem of regionality in the context of interdependence and globalization. By expanding the present categorization of powers as global, regional, and local to include the proposed novel category of transregional power the rigidity of regionality can be eliminated. The new category enables a more nuanced understanding of the hierarchy of powers as well as of the processes of world order on multiple geographical scales.

Quest for regional power status: Explaining Turkey’s assertive foreign policy

This article explains Turkey’s hard power usage in Syria, Azerbaijan, and Libya. We argue that gaining a respected status forms the basis of Turkish foreign policy and the main cause of Turkey’s hard power usage was the failure of Turkey’s previous status-seeking strategy. Turkey had followed a cooperationist strategy since the early 1990s by pursuing membership in the EU, strengthening ties with the West, and leading regional mediation efforts. However, this strategy failed due to the changing the security environment in the early 2010s and the discord between the interests of West and Turkey. This led Turkey to be more prone to using hard power, through which Turkey could achieve status and influence in multiple regions. This study provides an insight into the status-seeking strategies of Turkey, as an emerging middle power, by unpacking its priorities and contributes to the ongoing debates on Turkey’s foreign policy under Erdoğan.

To lead or not to lead: regional powers and regional leadership

Recent trends demonstrate that states with sufficient capabilities to be granted regional power status by its peers (primarily other states within their region) can nonetheless renounce regional leadership. This article analyzes the puzzling behavior of these detached or reluctant regional powers. We argue that resorting to an approach grounded in neoclassical realism is helpful to explain why regional powers might not exercise leadership. In this article regional leadership is conceptualized as an auxiliary goal within the grand strategy of a regional power. This goal will be pursued in the absence of certain structural and domestic constraints. Great power competition determines the incentives for regional leadership at the structural level. Capacity to extract and mobilize resources for foreign policy affects the decision to pursue leadership at the domestic level. We apply the analytical framework to analyze Brazil’s detachment from South America after the Cardoso and Lula presidencies.

Historical patterns of foreign policy of Denmark: the reason for abandoning neutrality after the World War II?

Based on the historical analysis, this article attempts to give a detailed and comprehensive answer to the question about the reasons that forced Denmark to abandon the policy of neutrality after the World War II and become the member of the North Atlantic Alliance. The object of this research is the foreign policy of Denmark in the XV – XX centuries, while the subject is the balancing strategy of Denmark in the conditions of transition from the status of regional power to the status of second-order power, and ultimately, to the status of a small European state that seeks to ensure the own neutrality. Special attention is given to the analysis of strategic foreign policy decisions of Denmark in the conditions of major regional and European conflicts, such as the Dano-Swedish War of the XVII century, Great Northern War (1700-1721), Napoleonic Wars (1799-1815), First Schleswig War (1848-1850) and Second Schleswig War (1864), World War I (1914-1918) and World War II (1939-1945). The conclusion is made that reaching the actual neutral status for Denmark throughout its foreign policy history was virtually impossible due to the fact that conventional neutrality acquired either a pro-German or pro-British orientation, and in reality represented an attempt to find a complex balance between the interests of the great powers. The need for balancing overlapped the historical vulnerability of Northern European region to external influence. Since the great powers using bilateral diplomacy did allow close rapprochement countries between Nordic countries, the common defense alliance projects both prior to the World War II and after the World War II failed to implement  A crucial point in evolution of the foreign policy strategy of Danish politicians became the negative experience of the World War II, when strict conformity to the policy of neutrality did not prevent the German occupation of the country.

Nigeria - South Africa Rivalry in Quest for Regional Power Status: from Material Potential to UN Security Council Membership

The paper explores the role and the power potential of Nigeria and South Africa with special attention to their comparatively high military, economic, political capabilities that enable them to shape and dominate regional agenda. It also analyses the internal, regional and external dynamics within Africa, particularly in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Southern African Development Community (SADC). The paper further thoroughly examines the hegemonic contest for the UN Security Council membership among the dominant African states through the lens of Ezulwini Consensus, as well as the Pan-African credentials of Nigeria and South Africa in accordance to their contribution to ensuring peace, stability and development on continental and sub-regional levels. Nigeria and South Africa are the most important actors on the African continent, but there are obvious constraints undermining their ability to play an effective regional role. Thus, the research was guided by the comparison case-study of Nigeria and South Africa in crucial for understanding power potential areas. The study concludes that although Pan-Africanism stands of Nigeria and South Africa are commendable, both powers mostly follow this strategy for advancing their national interests. Taking into account the whole set of internal and external factors, both countries need to unite their efforts and practical strategies to advance the common goal of Africa development, peace and security.

Two Stages of Turkey’s Quest for a Regional Power Status in the Middle East: An Integrated Role- Status-seeking Approach

Since 2002, Turkey has actively been seeking a regional power status in the Middle East through the articulation of regional roles based on historical legacy and liberal experience. Theoretically, the paper seeks to contribute to regional power literature by integrating role theory with status-seeking theory and examining the interactions between them. This integrated approach suggests that the role rientations of aspiring regional power and regional counter-roles determine the level of status recognition of that regional power in a given regional power hierarchy. Using this approach, the paper examines the fluctuations in Turkey’s pursuit of regional power status in the Middle East over two uneven stages before and after the Arab Spring. It shows that Turkey was able to play regional cooperative roles and improve its regional power status during the first stage (2002-2011) while has stumbled over the period since the Arab Spring.

Russia’s Growth as a Regional Power in the Context of the Eurasian Economic Union

Abstract We are currently witnessing the emergence of new poles of power, practically from the bi-polar model of the post-World War 2 world, the Russian Federation has made in the last years made great efforts to introduce a multi-polar model, in other words it is seeking to affirm itself again on the world stage and gain leadership as a pole of power for the eastern Europe. There is a direct correlation between the status of „regional leader” and the economic power of the country who wants to achieve this status. Taking into account a set of indicators such as: share in the world GDP, trade and investment flows, the European Union, USA and China are at the moment the biggest poles of economic power in the world. Russia aspires to expand its influence and within the context of the Eurasian Economic Union seeks to reach the status of regional economic power. The main research questions of the article is if Russia can achieve through the Eurasian Economic Union and strategic partnership with China, the status of regional power and be a serios contender to the European Union. The article follows a qualitative methodology and examines the possible implications of the European Union- Eurasian economic Union competition at a regional level and Russia’s perspectives to achieve, as the leading force of the Union, a greater influence from an economic and geo-political perspective. The final section analyses the impact that the growth of the Chinese economy has had on the European Union as well as the Eurasian Economic Union. In this context, Russia has moved its attention towards Asia, particularly towards China, with whom all evidence points, is trying to form an alliance against the West, and is trying to capitalize on the ongoing trade war that is enfolding between the USA and China. The article concludes that Russia needs China, as the world’s second largest economy and important regional power more than China needs Russia and their current relationship is based more on their personal need to undermine other powers than any true common visions.

THE GCC DIPLOMATIC RIFT AND ITS REVERBERATIONS UPON ROMANIAN PRESENCE IN THE REGION

By virtue of their economic influence, the Arab States of the Gulf are highly interlinked within the global community. Dimensions of globalization (such as outward looking focus on international trade, openness, growing business opportunities and investment) are shifting their interests to a broad spectrum of partners leading to increased connectivity platforms and links. Apparent deteriorating ties seriously undermines relations among GCC[1] players and adversely affects its functioning. Current dispute, centered on allegations about Qatar’s foreign policy, caused much consternation, in fact, unequivocally conflicted with the interests of other members and escalated tensions. A scheme of prolonged economic isolation for the Gulf state of Qatar presents challenges and opportunities for Romania (particularly in food security initiatives in Qatar), however, in light of inter-regional realignments, a united GCC stance must consequently prevail to promote stability and reinforce its status of regional power in the Arab World, that would develop and maintain a strong bilateral relationship between Romania and the GCC. [1] (Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a political and economic union currently consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates)

Nigeria’s Soft Power Sources: Between Potential and Illusion?

A major requirement for regional power status is the location and deployment of soft power attributes which may range from culture, political ideology, diplomacy, to sporting achievements, foreign policy articulation, tourism, media exports and language. While contemporary analysis of Nigeria’s regional and continental power profile is almost entirely focused on economic and military aspects, an objective account of the state’s power portfolio would be incomplete without a careful estimation of its soft power potential and influence. This article contributes to the study of Nigeria’s foreign policy by initiating the debate on the utility and prospect of its soft power characteristics. An assessment of the country’s soft power resources in the form of culture, political values and foreign policy reveals that Abuja can indeed use these co-optive platforms to mitigate the negative contradictions that dampen its regional power status in Africa. The paper concludes that, although there are enormous limitations, a careful articulation of Nigeria’s soft power assets has the potential to reinforce the country’s regional leadership.

Conceptualising and testing the ‘emerging regional power’ of Turkey in the shifting ınternational order

Turkey has thus far been generally neglected in most IR studies on power categorisations, such as middle or middle-range power, regional power or rising/emerging power, despite its rising regional power status in the past decade. This paper attempts to understand Turkey’s regional power together with its rising power status using an integral approach. In doing so, it empirically tests whether or not Turkey fits Daniel Flemes’s ‘regional power’ category, which seems to be proposing a more complete and integral framework through the fulfilment of four basic preconditions: claim to leadership; possession of necessary power resources (material and ideational); employment of material, institutional and discursive foreign policy instruments; and acceptance of leadership by third parties. Based upon these analytical tools, the article will discuss Turkey’s performance in creating a regional impact in its neighbouring regions of the Middle East, the Balkans and the Black Sea and Caucasus.

Brasil, Mercosul e a segurança regional

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a evolução de um regime hemisférico de segurança tendo em vista duas questões fundamentais: o impacto do Mercosul no equilíbrio geopolítico continental e o papel do Brasil como ator-chave na conformação deste arranjo hemisférico de segurança. Nossa hipótese é de que, tanto na dimensão regional, quanto global, o Brasil tem atuado no sentido de contrabalançar a hegemonia norte-americana, reforçando a correlação entre o status de potência regional e o cálculo de opções internacionais.