State Of Market Research Articles

Quantile correlation between fintech stocks and crypto-assets

ABSTRACT This research explores the dependence, directional predictability and dynamic co-movement between fintech and cryptocurrency markets from July 2016 to March 2021 using a series of quantile-based coherency techniques. The causality-in-quantiles results show a considerable difference between causality-in-mean and in-variance under different market conditions. For cross-quantilogram analysis, we observe minimal directional predictability between cryptocurrencies and fintech both in the short-run and in the long-run under bearish and bullish market states. From wavelet multiple cross-correlation models, we show that cryptocurrencies maximize multiple correlation compared to fintech across all time scales, denoting that cryptocurrencies are most dependent on fintech for all wavelet scales.

The impact of pension reform on employment, retirement, and disability insurance claims

We evaluate the 2011 comprehensive reform of Norwegian early retirement institutions using a parsimonious random utility choice model. Conditional on employment at age 60, we estimate a three-state conditional logit model to explain the realized labor market state at age 63 among the alternatives of employment, retirement, and disability program participation. The reform radically changed work incentives and/or pension access age for some (but not all) workers, such that the influence of economic incentives can be identified based on reform-generated variation only. We find that improved work incentives caused employment rates to rise considerably at the expense of early retirement and exit through disability insurance. Improved liquidity through a lower age to access own pension funds on actuarially neutral terms caused a small increase in employment and a large drop in disability program participation. Properly designed pension reforms thus need to take the interplay between old-age pension and disability insurance programs into account.

Financial component of the hydrogen economy development strategy of Ukraine

The relevance of the study is determined by the need to detail the financial justification of the development of the hydrogen economy in Ukraine, taking into account the need to ensure energy independence and diversification of energy resources. With a sufficient number of publications on the innovativeness of hydrogen technologies, global trends in their use and the importance of decarbonization of public production, the issue of financial support for the development of the hydrogen economy remains insufficiently covered. The purpose of the article is to highlight and characterize the financial component of the strategy for building the hydrogen economy of Ukraine. To achieve the goal, general and special methods of scientific research were used: abstraction, decomposition, comparison, analysis, extrapolation. According to the results of the study, a derived relationship between the number of scientific studies on the development of hydrogen technologies and the state of the energy market was revealed, which made it possible to put forward a hypothesis about the intensity of research on the prospects for the development of the hydrogen economy in the context of the adequacy of its financing. The existing hydrogen technologies can be applied only in connection with the development of renewable energy, they require increased innovations in production, infrastructure, and consumption of hydrogen, therefore, they require increased financing. The financial component of the Hydrogen Strategy of Ukraine (until 2050), developed by the Ministry of Energy, is highlighted at each stage of its implementation. The foreign experience of strategies for the development of the hydrogen economy is presented and the insufficiency of financial resources to ensure the achievement of the target indicators of the Ukrainian strategy, especially in the conditions of war, is stated. The relationship between the Hydrogen Strategy of Ukraine and the Recovery Plan of Ukraine until 2032 is characterized. The general need for financing the development of the hydrogen economy at the second stage of the implementation of the Hydrogen Strategy was determined in connection with the content of the pilot projects. Accordingly, there is a need to detail the focus and sources of funding for the hydrogen economy development strategy in Ukraine, potential sources of cash receipts, changes in institutional and regulatory support for the hydrogen strategy.

Mean–Variance Portfolio Selection in a Markovian Regime-Switching Market When the Uncertain Time Horizon is a Stopping Time of Market State Filtration: A Multi-period Model

Mean–Variance Portfolio Selection in a Markovian Regime-Switching Market When the Uncertain Time Horizon is a Stopping Time of Market State Filtration: A Multi-period Model

The state of the Russian agricultural machinery market under sanction pressure conditions

The article is devoted to assessing the development of the Russian market of agricultural machinery (AHT) over the past 10 years. An analysis of the production of the main types of agricultural products, market dynamics, changes in market structure, volumes of purchases by agricultural producers, and the presence of agricultural products in Russian agriculture are presented. For a comparative analysis of the agricultural tractors being sold, their main technical and economic indicators are presented. Calculations were made of the main operational properties (performance, fuel consumption) of tractors of similar traction classes of the Belarus family and Chinese-made tractors presented on the Russian market. Based on correlation analysis, the relationship and direction of indicators were verified: renewal rates, retirement rates and the availability of a fleet of agricultural machinery; acquisition of agricultural equipment and renewal and disposal rates; acquisition of agricultural equipment and availability of agricultural machinery in agricultural organizations. Quite a strong relationship between the indicators: “purchase of agricultural products” and “availability in agricultural organizations” (correlation coefficient r = 0.676 — 0.99), a significant relationship between the indicators: “retirement rate” and “availability of combine harvesters” (correlation coefficient r = from — 0.588 to -0.664), “purchase of tractors” and “disposal coefficient” — r = –0.445, there is practically no relationship between the indicators: “purchase of tractors” and “availability of tractors” — r = –0.06, “renewal coefficient” and “availability grain harvesters” — r = -0.183, “purchase of forage harvesters” and “disposal rate” — r = –0.187. When analyzing the performance properties determined in this study, it was revealed that Chinese tractors presented on the agricultural machinery market will provide significant competition to tractors of the Belarus family.

Analysis of the Current State and Prospects for the Development of the Tourism Services Market in China

Aim. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current state of the Chinese tourism services market and the prospects for its development in the context of the public policy of the PRC.Tasks. Research objectives: perform a cluster analysis of entrepreneurial activity in the field of tourism, construct a diagram of the distribution of travel agencies by clusters; comply with the current state of the tourism services market in terms of key metrics; study government support measures for the industry; determine the prospects for the development of the tourism services market of the PRC and Russian-Chinese cooperation in the context of the implementation of the new “double circulation” strategy.Methods. Methodological basis and research methods: systematic approach, logical analysis, synthesis, cluster and regression analysis, content analysis of open sources.Results. The results obtained: the supply-side model of China’s modern tourism landscape includes three clusters; The specificity of China’s domestic tourism market is the holiday tourism segment; a new driver of economic growth is domestic tourism, the preferences of domestic tourists reflect a wide range of interests; the system of state support for tourism includes direct and indirect methods that adapt to changes in the external and internal environment.Conclusions. With a high probability, the prospects for cooperation between the PRC and the Russian Federation are assessed quite highly; favorable factors in the development of Russian-Chinese cooperation are the opening of new “windows of opportunity” after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the restriction of outbound tourist flows to unfriendly countries and changes in the vector towards the BRICS countries, SCO, and EAEU.

The global oil market with a price ceiling for one of the producers

Subject. The article considers the functioning of the oil market under a price ceiling set for one of the producers. Objectives. The aims are to develop tools to study the global oil market under sanctions restrictions, define the characteristics of sustainability of such a market when applying sanctions to one of the producers, analyze economic consequences of setting a price ceiling for the purchase of oil, explore the possibilities of achieving equilibrium states. Methods. The main research tool is mathematical modeling of the market. The research methodology rests on the study of changes in market characteristics caused by the introduction of non-market methods of its regulation. Results. I built a game-theoretic model suitable for studying the global oil market with sanctions restrictions, defined critical parameters of the market caused by the introduction of a price ceiling, determined the ways to stabilize the market with this ceiling. Furthermore, I examined the current state of the market and determined the consequences of changing the characteristics of sanctions restrictions. Conclusions. The model is suitable for studying the current state of the global oil market. The introduction of a price ceiling, in contrast to a complete embargo, allows the market to remain stable within certain limits. To stabilize the market, it is also possible to conclude private contracts at discounted prices. Current trends in the development of the global oil market require the inclusion of oil importing countries in the set of players in the developed model.

Evaluating Usability and Accessibility of Visual Programming Tools for Novice Programmers—The Case of App Inventor, Scratch, and StarLogo

The current state of the labor market requires modern engineers to acquire programming skills at different levels of advancement and to apply them in multidisciplinary environments. Not all modern engineers will become fully fledged programmers, but sometimes the possibility to use low-code programming environments like LabView or MIT App Inventor will be sufficient. In order to give good foundations for adulthood, schools use elements of visual programming, e.g., Scratch or StarLogo, to enhance the critical and algorithmic thinking of future engineers. This article attempts to answer the question of whether anyone cares about following general accessibility and usability guidelines in the case of solutions like Scratch, App Inventor, and StarLogo. Another goal is to show a set of tools that is successful in such an assessment. The authors used Nielsen’s heuristics, followed by analyzing WAVE output and Web Content Accessibility Guidelines compliance. Especially, the last one provides insights usually omitted when evaluating low-code environments. It was found that Scratch and App Inventor are leading solutions in terms of look and feel, functionality, documentation, interface navigation, and memorization. The StarLogo interface, on the other hand, is less friendly in terms of aesthetics and functionality.

Real Estate Market Transformations Amidst Post-Pandemic Sino-U.S. Economic Trends

In the post-pandemic era, the global economic landscape has undergone profound changes. As the world’s largest economies, the economic policies and market performances of the United States and China have exerted far-reaching impacts on the global real estate market. This paper delves into the current state and future trajectory of the real estate market under Sino-U.S. economic trends, focusing on commercial real estate, residential investment, property taxes, financing, and laws and regulations. It also incorporates keywords such as easements, deed transfers, premium discount rates, home mortgages, police powers, liens, common law, fixtures, joint leases, marital property, private property, and trespassing to provide a comprehensive analysis.

Forecast Analysis of the Stock Market Based on Hidden Markov Model and Long Short-Term Memory Model- Taking the S and P500 Index as an Example

This paper proposes a hybrid method that combines the advantages of HMM and LSTM models to improve the accuracy of stock market predictions, using the S&P500 index as a case study. HMMs are used to identify and model potential market states, while LSTMs predict future stock prices based on these states. Through this integration, this paper hopes to take advantage of HMM’s ability to model market conditions and LSTM’s advantages in forecasting to provide a more robust forecasting framework. This article is mainly divided into five parts. The first part is an introduction to the research background and objectives. The second part is the review and arrangement of relevant literature. The third part is the elaboration of the theoretical basis and the collection and analysis of data. The fourth part is an explanation of the data analysis results. The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestions of this study.

Polycystic ovary syndrome and labor market attachment in Swedish women

Abstract Background Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disorder in women of fertile age and is associated with several burdensome comorbidities. We use Swedish longitudinal register data to identify and compare clusters of employment trajectories among working age women, in order to investigate how PCOS affects labor market attachment. Data and Methods A cohort of 157,356 women born in 1975-1977 were followed annually between the ages of 30 and 39. Labor market states were constructed by combining detailed data on various types of earned income. PCOS was identified through national inpatient and outpatient registers. Sociodemographic covariates (civil status, region of origin, highest attained education, number of children) were measured at the age of 29 years. Sequence analysis was used to identify clusters of typical labor market trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression was employed to assess the associations between being diagnosed with PCOS and belonging to the identified clusters. Results Women with PCOS spent less time in employment and were more dependent on sickness benefits during the follow-up time than those without PCOS. Five clusters of trajectories were identified: stable employment, education into employment, labor market exclusion, continuous unstable position, long-term sickness. Compared to being in stable employment cluster, women diagnosed with PCOS were 97% more likely to experience long-term sickness (RRR (relative risk ratio): 1.97 [CI: 1.90-2.05]), and had 11% higher risk of belonging to education into employment (RRR: 1.11 [CI: 1.07-1.15]) and a 4% higher risk (RRR: 1.04 [CI: 1.00-1.09]) of experiencing labor market exclusion. The magnitude of the association increased for education into employment and labor market exclusion after adjusting for covariates. Conclusions PCOS can lead to disadvantaged labor market outcomes and better strategies are needed in order to prevent economic exclusion among women diagnosed with the condition. Key messages • PCOS leads to disadvantaged labor market outcomes. • Women with PCOS may experience economic exclusion.

Prediction of the Effectiveness of Deferred Retirement in the Labor Market Performance in China

Abstract: The analytical document touching upon the prospects of how delaying retirement affects labor market ability in China reveals some crucial information about the implications of the retirement age policy modifications. This test may indicate that the retirement age raise would be a huge factor in China's labor market status, such as employment level and national pension funds. Apart from this, the paper is a reminder for the authorities to have a broad policy discussion on diverse fiscal consequences that different retirement age policies may cause like wage inflexibility, disposable labor issues, and the aging population. These results demonstrate that the simulation should be considered for its interplay with individuals' lives as well as for the macro economy. To scrutinize the efficacy of postponing retirement within China's employment market performance, it's critical to deploy some economic theories. The first method involves the insights from both the Beveridge curve and job creation curve to dissect the nuances of job turnover rates, opportunities for finding new jobs, and their influence on unemployment figures. Delving deeper into pension fund ramifications necessitates assessing the shift from Defined Contribution (DC) schemes towards Defined Benefit (DB) plans, while also taking stock of how dependency ratios come into play. Moreover, gauging effects on incremental labor productivity alongside capital-to-labor ratio calls for an expansive view that considers changes across various industrial sectors and their broader consequences on the labor market as a whole.

Electro-mobility – an Opportunity to Develop a More Sustainable Transport System

The future of transport is electro-mobility, a technology that ensures environmentally friendly and energy efficient vehicles on the road. But to exploit the full benefits of electric propulsion there are still many challenges to overcome. These challenges are related to the cost and residual value (aftermarket) of the vehicles, battery life and cost, charging and range. This article discusses these challenges as well as the state of the electric vehicle market. The aim is to present to what extent the development of electric mobility in Europe and in Bulgaria will outline a more sustainable transport system and to outline what the opportunities for its development are. Decarburization of transport is key to achieving sustainable mobility ensuring transport connectivity across the continent.

Environmental Attitudes, Concerns, and Behaviors Across Survey Modes. Assessing Selection and Measurement Biases in ISSP 2020 ‘Push-to-Web’ Surveys

How much does survey mode matter for predicting environmental attitudes and behaviors? It is essential to consider the influence of survey mode on the measurement of variables, particularly given the increasing popularity of web-based data collection following the Covid crisis. In 2020, several ISSP countries adopted a mixed-mode design, combining web and paper surveys for the Environment IV module. While mixed-mode data collection can reduce mode-specific errors, its success depends on accurately estimating and adjusting for selection and measurement differences between the modes. Failing to do so can increase the Total Survey Error, compromising the accuracy and reliability of the data. In this article, we examine selection and measurement differences in the web and paper modes in the Environment IV data from Switzerland and Finland. Register data are used as a benchmark to estimate selection biases in key socio-demographic variables, and we use these estimates to disentangle mode measurement effects from other sources of error. While we find that age, education, and labor market status account for selection effects across modes, we do not find significant differences in the measurement of environmental attitudes and behaviors across modes once the selection effect is controlled for. Mixing online and paper modes should thus not compromise data quality by introducing measurement biases for environmental variables.

A Study on the Current Status and Future Prospects of EV Automotive Market

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) projections, the total number of electric vehicles in the world is expected to reach 250 million in 2030 and 525 million in 2035. As a result, more than one in four cars running on the streets is expected to be electric by 2035. In addition, annual sales of electric vehicles are expected to reach about 45 million in 2030 and close to 65 million in 2035. The penetration rate of electric vehicles is expected to exceed about 40% in 2030 and 50% in 2035. In addition, the number of EV chargers in the world is expected to exceed 15 million by 2030, which is four times the current number. With the spread of electric vehicles worldwide, the need for public EV chargers in each country is increasing. As of 2023, there are 3.9 million public EV chargers worldwide. The country with the highest number of installations is China, with 1.5 million regular chargers and 1.2 million high-speed chargers installed as of 2023. China is leading the introduction of EV chargers, accounting for more than 85% of the world's high-speed chargers and about 60% of ordinary chargers. In Europe, 590,000 regular chargers and 110,000 high-speed chargers are installed as of 2023. In the second half of 2023, the European Union adopted the Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), making it mandatory to install public high-speed chargers every 60 km along the EU's major transport corridors. Through this, EV charging infrastructure in Europe is expected to expand rapidly in the future. This EV evolution can be said to be a big inflection point for transportation due to climate change. At this point, it can be said that it is very important to accurately recognize the current status and future of EVs. This paper aims to examine the current status of electric vehicles and forecast the future from this perspective.

THE CURRENT STATE OF DIGITAL MARKETING IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

The article describes the current state of digital marketing in public administration through the prism of the Ukrainian application “Diia”. The author analyzes how the introduction of digital technologies contributes to improving the quality of public services and improving communication with citizens. It is indicated that the Diia application is a vivid example of the strategic use of digital platforms to provide quick access to services, simplify administrative processes and increase transparency. The article emphasizes that Diia allows users to receive a wide range of services online, including issuing digital documents (passports, driver’s licenses, student cards, birth certificates, etc.), paying taxes, applying for social benefits, and other administrative procedures. Such functions greatly simplify the interaction of citizens with government agencies, allowing them to perform most of the necessary actions without the need to visit physical offices. This helps to improve the efficiency of public service delivery, reduce administrative burden, and increase the level of public trust in government institutions. The application ensures a high level of transparency in government relations, as citizens can easily track the status of their applications and receive up-to-date information on changes in legislation. The article defines the main elements of digital marketing used in public administration. The purpose of the article is to study the current state of digital marketing in public administration. The relevance of the topic is due to the rapid introduction of digital technologies into the public administration sphere, which ensures more effective interaction between the State and citizens. To achieve this goal, the methods of analysis, observation and systematization of information were used. As a result of the study, the main advantages and disadvantages of using digital tools in government agencies were identified on the example of the Diia application. The practical value of the article is to provide recommendations for improving digital platforms to improve the quality of public services and increase their accessibility to all categories of the population.

Study on the Problems and Countermeasures of Tourism Market Supervision in Ethnic Areas

Ethnic regions are increasingly capturing the attention of tourists, thanks to their unique cultural heritage and natural resources, thus becoming indispensable growth points in the tourism market. However, the rapid expansion of the tourism sector has imposed heightened demands on regulatory mechanisms. Currently, the tourism market in these regions faces a myriad of challenges, including insufficient oversight, a lack of transparency in information, and varying quality among market participants. These issues not only diminish the visitor experience but also impede the advancement of sustainable tourism development. Consequently, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive and effective regulatory strategy to standardize market order and ensure tourism quality. This study analyzes the current state and challenges of the tourism market in ethnic areas and proposes a series of targeted recommendations, including the enhancement of the regulatory framework, increased enforcement efforts, improved information transparency, and the elevation of participant quality. These strategies aim to foster the robust development of the tourism market, enhance visitor satisfaction, and achieve sustainable growth in the tourism industry of ethnic regions.

Just Housing Unrealized: The Canada Housing Benefit in Atlantic Canada

We examine the design and implementation of the Canada Housing Benefit (CHB), which is a rent subsidy provided to low-income tenants and an important part of the National Housing Strategy. Focusing on three Atlantic provinces, we explore to what extent the CHB adheres to just housing, based on the perspectives of stakeholders (n=18) who work with people living in poverty. We find that the CHB fails to provide assistance to many marginalized renters, thus perpetuating their exclusion. The CHB also falls short in providing housing that is affordable and secure, and lacks involvement in decision-making on the part of those with lived experience. Finally, the current state of the rental market, including a lack of units and landlord discrimination, poses significant limitations to its implementation. We conclude that the design of the CHB needs to be overhauled to comply with just housing, but that the housing terrain in which allowances are provided needs to be transformed or just housing will remain unrealized.

Медиаменеджмент как перспективный инструмент цифрового управления

The issues of studying the concept of media management from the point of view of its use as a tool for managing the digital transformation of business processes and the economy as a whole are considered. Approaches to the definition and content of the term “media management” are analyzed, the specifics and conditions for digitalization of the media market are explored. The key factors determining the further active development of media management and the media environment are identified, and the content of the digital transformation of the media market is revealed. The most relevant models of modern media management in digital management have been identified. The attention is paid to the study of such issues as key factors in the development of media management; media management as an integrated management tool; media as a tool for managing the digital economy; trends in digital transformation and development of media tools. Scientific works devoted to this problem have been studied. The characteristic features of media management as a modern methodology for managing business development and list promising ways to organize the management process, types and tools for using media in digital management are highlighted. An analysis of the current state of the media market is carried out, as well as a forecast for its further development within the framework of the domestic digital economy. The most promising areas of media management are proposed and key trends in media management are listed. Media management at its core is a direction of the digital economy, the transition to which has received significant attention as part of the development of the domestic system of expanded reproduction. Media management as a modern management tool is a rather multifaceted concept that largely determines the trends in the further development of the domestic media market and the digitalization of the modern economy. The growth of the media market contributes to an even more active digital reorientation of basic economic and business processes.

The Current State of the Russian Budget System and the Potential for Financing the Federal Budget Deficit

For the first time, Russia’s budget system is under large-scale stress in all areas: risks of losing the tax base due to international sanctions, a steady increase in unforeseen expenses, inflation risks, and rising debt servicing costs. In this regard, it is necessary to identify and analyze potential sources of financing the federal budget deficit as the main guarantor of budget stability. The article examines the state of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation and the budgets of state extra-budgetary funds based on the results of the first half of 2024. It is shown that oil and gas revenues remain the main source of revenue growth. Among non-oil and gas revenues, personal income tax and VAT from domestic sales are growing at an accelerated rate. At the same time, the positive dynamics of some sectors of the Russian economy is largely due to budget financing. At the same time, inflation remains above target values, which forces the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to tighten monetary policy. The excess growth of federal budget expenditures and the increase in nominal rates threaten financial stability. In this regard, the article assesses the potential for financing the federal budget deficit in the context of strict borrowing restrictions. Based on the analysis of the state of the domestic federal loan bond market, a conclusion is made about the high risk of a liquidity crisis and the potential for placing domestic debt at the expense of non-bank financial institutions and individuals.