Statistical Learning Methods Research Articles

LociPARSE: A Locality-aware Invariant Point Attention Model for Scoring RNA 3D Structures.

A scoring function that can reliably assess the accuracy of a 3D RNA structural model in the absence of experimental structure is not only important for model evaluation and selection but also useful for scoring-guided conformational sampling. However, high-fidelity RNA scoring has proven to be difficult using conventional knowledge-based statistical potentials and currently available machine learning-based approaches. Here, we present lociPARSE, a locality-aware invariant point attention architecture for scoring RNA 3D structures. Unlike existing machine learning methods that estimate superposition-based root-mean-square deviation (RMSD), lociPARSE estimates Local Distance Difference Test (lDDT) scores capturing the accuracy of each nucleotide and its surrounding local atomic environment in a superposition-free manner, before aggregating information to predict global structural accuracy. Tested on multiple datasets including CASP15, lociPARSE significantly outperforms existing statistical potentials (rsRNASP, cgRNASP, DFIRE-RNA, and RASP) and machine learning methods (ARES and RNA3DCNN) across complementary assessment metrics. lociPARSE is freely available at https://github.com/Bhattacharya-Lab/lociPARSE.

Exploring statistical and machine learning methods for modeling probability distribution parameters in downtime length analysis: a paper manufacturing machine case study

Manufacturing companies focus on improving productivity, reducing costs, and aligning performance metrics with strategic objectives. In industries like paper manufacturing, minimizing equipment downtime is essential for maintaining high throughput. Leveraging the extensive data generated by these facilities offers opportunities for gaining competitive advantages through data-driven insights, revealing trends, patterns, and predicting future performance indicators like unplanned downtime length, which is essential in optimizing maintenance and minimizing potential losses. This paper explores statistical and machine learning techniques for modeling downtime length probability distributions and correlation with machine vibration measurements. We proposed a novel framework, employing advanced data-driven techniques like artificial neural networks (ANNs) to estimate parameters of probability distributions governing downtime lengths. Our approach specifically focuses on modeling parameters of these distribution, rather than directly modeling probability density function (PDF) values, as is common in other approaches. Experimental results indicate a significant performance boost, with the proposed method achieving up to 30% superior performance in modeling the distribution of downtime lengths compared to alternative methods. Moreover, this method facilitates unsupervised training, making it suitable for big data repositories of unlabelled data. The framework allows for potential expansion by incorporating additional input variables. In this study, machine vibration velocity measurements are selected for further investigation. The study underscores the potential of advanced data-driven techniques to enables companies to make better-informed decisions regarding their current maintenance practices and to direct improvement programs in industrial settings.

Long‐Term Foehn Reconstruction Combining Unsupervised and Supervised Learning

ABSTRACTFoehn winds, characterised by abrupt temperature increases and wind speed changes, significantly impact regions on the leeward side of mountain ranges, e.g., by spreading wildfires. Understanding how foehn occurrences change under climate change is crucial. As foehn is a meteorological phenomenon, its prevalence has to be inferred from meteorological measurements employing suitable classification schemes. Hence, this approach is typically limited to specific periods for which the necessary data are available. We present a novel approach for reconstructing historical foehn occurrences using a combination of unsupervised and supervised probabilistic statistical learning methods. We utilise in situ measurements (available for recent decades) to train an unsupervised learner (finite mixture model) for automatic foehn classification. These labelled data are then linked to reanalysis data (covering longer periods) using a supervised learner (lasso or boosting). This allows us to reconstruct past foehn probabilities based solely on reanalysis data. Applying this method to ERA5 reanalysis data for six stations across Switzerland and Austria achieves accurate hourly reconstructions of north and south foehn occurrence, respectively, dating back to 1940. This paves the way for investigating how seasonal foehn patterns have evolved over the past 83 years, providing valuable insights into climate change impacts on these critical wind events.

The relative data hungriness of unpenalized and penalized logistic regression and ensemble-based machine learning methods: the case of calibration.

Machine learning methods are increasingly being used to predict clinical outcomes. Optimism is the difference in model performance between derivation and validation samples. The term "data hungriness" refers to the sample size needed for a modelling technique to generate a prediction model with minimal optimism. Our objective was to compare the relative data hungriness of different statistical and machine learning methods when assessed using calibration. We used Monte Carlo simulations to assess the effect of number of events per variable (EPV) on the optimism of six learning methods when assessing model calibration: unpenalized logistic regression, ridge regression, lasso regression, bagged classification trees, random forests, and stochastic gradient boosting machines using trees as the base learners. We performed simulations in two large cardiovascular datasets each of which comprised an independent derivation and validation sample: patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction and patients hospitalized with heart failure. We used six data-generating processes, each based on one of the six learning methods. We allowed the sample sizes to be such that the number of EPV ranged from 10 to 200 in increments of 10. We applied six prediction methods in each of the simulated derivation samples and evaluated calibration in the simulated validation samples using the integrated calibration index, the calibration intercept, and the calibration slope. We also examined Nagelkerke's R2, the scaled Brier score, and the c-statistic. Across all 12 scenarios (2 diseases × 6 data-generating processes), penalized logistic regression displayed very low optimism even when the number of EPV was very low. Random forests and bagged trees tended to be the most data hungry and displayed the greatest optimism. When assessed using calibration, penalized logistic regression was substantially less data hungry than methods from the machine learning literature.

Statistical Learning Methods for Predictive Analytics in Engineering Management

Statistical Learning Methods for Predictive Analytics in Engineering Management

Non-Linear Saturated Multi-Objective Pseudo-Screening Using Support Vector Machine Learning, Pareto Front, and Belief Functions: Improving Wastewater Recycling Quality

Increasing wastewater treatment efficiency is a primary aim in the circular economy. Wastewater physicochemical and biochemical processes are quite complex, often requiring a combination of statistical and machine learning tools to empirically model them. Since wastewater treatment plants are large-scale operations, the limited opportunities for extensive experimentation may be offset by miniaturizing experimental schemes through the use of fractional factorial designs (FFDs). A recycling quality improvement study that relies on non-linear multi-objective multi-parameter FFD (NMMFFD) datasets was reanalyzed. A published NMMFFD ultrafiltration screening/optimization case study was re-examined regarding how four controlling factors affected three paper mill recycling characteristic responses using a combination of statistical and machine learning methods. Comparative machine learning screening predictions were provided by (1) quadratic support vector regression and (2) optimizable support vector regression, in contrast to quadratic linear regression. NMMFFD optimization was performed by employing Pareto fronts. Pseudo-screening was applied by decomposing the replicated NMMFFD dataset to single replicates and then testing their replicate repeatability by introducing belief functions that sought to maximize credibility and plausibility estimates. Various versions of belief functions were considered, since the novel role of the three process characteristics, as independent sources, created a high level of conflict during the information fusion phase, due to the inherent divergent belief structures. Correlations between two characteristics, but with opposite goals, may also have contributed to the source conflict. The active effects for the NMMFFD dataset were found to be the transmembrane pressure and the molecular weight cut-off. The modified adjustment was pinpointed to the molecular weight cut-off at 50 kDa, while the optimal transmembrane pressure setting persisted at 2.0 bar. This mixed-methods approach may provide additional confidence in determining improved recycling process adjustments. It would be interesting to implement this approach in polyfactorial wastewater screenings with a greater number of process characteristics.

Methods to Handle Missing depression (PHQ-8 Score) Values among Adults in the United Arab Emirates

Abstract Background The UAE Healthy Future Study (UAEHFS) is one of the first large prospective cohort studies in the Gulf region which examines causes and risk factors for chronic diseases among adult UAE nationals. Missing values are often unavoidable in empirical research and can in many cases, lead to bias. The aim of this study is to estimate the percentage of depression in the UAEHFS pilot data using the eight-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8) variables, using different statistical methods. Methods Five common statistical machine learning methods of handling missing values were included in this analysis. These are mode imputation, k-nearest neighbor (KNN) imputation, classification, and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF) imputations, and random sample from observed values (Sample). 100 multiple imputations were used. Results 487 (94.2 %) eligible participants were included in the analysis. 231 (44.7%) were included in the complete case analysis. The median age was 30 years (Interquartile-Range: 23 - 38). More males (67.8%) than females included in the analysis. The estimated percentage of depression was 8.4%, 8.9%, 9.9%, 12.5%, 15.4% and 17.9% by the mode, complete case, sample, RF, CART, and KNN respectively. In additional analyses, the estimated proportions of depression were 11.5% by the Complete Case, 11.9% by KNN, 13.2% by K-means clustering, and 13.2% by Random Forest. Conclusions The estimated percentage of depression in the UAEHFS pilot data varies between the applied methods of handling missing values. This shows that the problem of missing values in the variables is not negligible. Further research is needed using multiple imputations in the main UAEHFS dataset after completing recruitment. Key messages • For the depression missing values, we recommend using multiple imputations not to generate data but to prevent the exclusion of observed data. • To have a better estimate of the percentage of depression, is recommended to use different machine learning methods.

Research and Prediction of China's Air Environment

Abstract: With the rapid development of China's economy, environmental issues, particularly air pollution, have become increasingly severe, posing significant threats to human health and ecosystems. This study employed statistical learning methods to analyze air pollution composition data from thirty major Chinese cities throughout 2019-2022. The study used algorithms like regression, classification, fitting, and filtering to find changes in multi-source heterogeneous data patterns and predict how air pollutant concentrations would change over time and space. At the same time,the results indicate that the primary factors influencing the Air Quality Index (AQI) are fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and inhalable particulate matter (PM10). Additionally, this research is significant for improving public health, advancing environmental protection, fostering economic growth, strengthening laws and regulations, ensuring social stability, and promoting scientific and cultural advancements. Through this research, scientific bases can be provided for formulating policies that reduce disease, enhance government credibility, drive innovation in atmospheric research, and preserve cultural heritage.

Detecting marine heatwaves below the sea surface globally using dynamics-guided statistical learning

Extreme warm water events, known as marine heatwaves, cause a variety of adverse impacts on the marine ecosystem. They are occurring more and more frequently across the global ocean. Yet monitoring marine heatwaves below the sea surface is still challenging due to the sparsity of in situ temperature observations. Here, we propose a statistical learning method guided by ocean dynamics and optimal prediction theory, to detect subsurface marine heatwaves based on the observable sea surface temperature and sea surface height. This dynamics-guided statistical learning method shows good skills in detecting subsurface marine heatwaves in the oceanic epipelagic zone over many parts of the global ocean. It outperforms both the classical ordinary least square regression and popular deep learning methods that do not effectively exploit ocean dynamics, with clear dynamical interpretation for its outperformance. Our study provides a useful statistical learning method for near real-time monitoring of subsurface marine heatwaves at a global scale and highlights the importance of exploiting ocean dynamics for enhancing the efficiency and interpretability of statistical learning.

Machine Learning Models Informed by Connected Mixture Components for Short- and Medium-Term Time Series Forecasting

This paper presents a new approach in the field of probability-informed machine learning (ML). It implies improving the results of ML algorithms and neural networks (NNs) by using probability models as a source of additional features in situations where it is impossible to increase the training datasets for various reasons. We introduce connected mixture components as a source of additional information that can be extracted from a mathematical model. These components are formed using probability mixture models and a special algorithm for merging parameters in the sliding window mode. This approach has been proven effective when applied to real-world time series data for short- and medium-term forecasting. In all cases, the models informed by the connected mixture components showed better results than those that did not use them, although different informed models may be effective for various datasets. The fundamental novelty of the research lies both in a new mathematical approach to informing ML models and in the demonstrated increase in forecasting accuracy in various applications. For geophysical spatiotemporal data, the decrease in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was up to 27.7%, and the reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was up to 45.7% compared with ML models without probability informing. The best metrics values were obtained by an informed ensemble architecture that fuses the results of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and a transformer. The Mean Squared Error (MSE) for the electricity transformer oil temperature from the ETDataset had improved by up to 10.0% compared with vanilla methods. The best MSE value was obtained by informed random forest. The introduced probability-informed approach allows us to outperform the results of both transformer NN architectures and classical statistical and machine learning methods.

Classification of Corn Diseases and Pests Using Fuzzy Naïve Bayes Method

Corn is an essential dietary source for humans and animals. In addition to being a food source, corn has numerous benefits as a manufacturing commodity. The quality of grain crops must be considered to minimise the likelihood of disease and pest infestations. Therefore, the diseases and pests that attack corn plants must be classified so that farmers can control them during the growth period of corn plants. The fuzzy naive Bayes method is a statistical machine learning method that can be used to classify the diseases and pests of corn crops based on colour space-transformed digital images. This study aims to classify corn plant diseases and pests using the fuzzy naive Bayes method. Digital images of corn plant diseases and pests were transformed into a red, green and blue colour space model. The following seven classes of corn plant diseases and pests were classified: leaf rust disease, downy mildew disease, leaf blight disease, Locusta pest, Heliotis armigera pest, Spodoptera frugiperdita pest and non-pathogenic pest. With this method, the classification model achieves an accuracy of 87.83%, a macro precision of 34.91%, a macro recall of 35.90% and a macro f-score of 33.82%.

Spotting Leaders in Organizations with Graph Convolutional Networks, Explainable Artificial Intelligence, and Automated Machine Learning

Over the past few decades, the study of leadership theory has expanded across various disciplines, delving into the intricacies of human behavior and defining the roles of individuals within organizations. Its primary objective is to identify leaders who play significant roles in the communication flow. In addition, behavioral theory posits that leaders can be distinguished based on their daily conduct, while social network analysis provides valuable insights into behavioral patterns. Our study investigates five and six types of social networks frequently observed in different organizations. This study is conducted using datasets we collected from an IT company and public datasets collected from a manufacturing company for the thorough evaluation of prediction performance. We leverage PageRank and effective word embedding techniques to obtain novel features. State-of-the-art performance is obtained using various statistical machine learning methods, graph convolutional networks (GCN), automated machine learning (AutoML), and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). More specifically, our approach can achieve state-of-the-art performance with an accuracy close to 90% for leaders identification with data from projects of different types. This investigation contributes to the establishment of sustainable leadership practices by aiding organizations in retaining their leadership talent.

A comprehensive framework for estimating the remaining useful life of Li-ion batteries under limited data conditions with no temporal identifier

The escalating applications of Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries in renewable energy and electric vehicles underscore the need for enhanced prognostics and health management systems to reduce the risk of sudden failures. Remaining useful life (RUL) determination is one of the most critical tasks in the field of battery prognostics nowadays. Even though statistical and machine learning (ML) methods have proven effective in research setups, many challenges prevent applying these prediction methods to real-life scenarios. These challenges include (1) scarcity of run-to-failure datasets with similar experimental conditions, (2) low data granularity when presented in capacity vs. discharge cycle pairs, and (3) lack of “temporal identifiers” in real-life scenarios. A temporal identifier is any label that provides knowledge about the current degradation state of a working battery. The research question developed for this study was, ‘Can the remaining useful life of a Li-ion battery having limited data without a temporal identifier be predicted?’ The specific aims were to estimate the temporal identifier of limited data and to predict the remaining useful life (RUL). An innovative framework incorporating reliability analysis and deep learning addresses these specific aims. Experimental data is used to test the framework's capabilities, limiting the training dataset to only three batteries and the testing dataset to a small sample (< 10 data points) of another battery. This new approach enabled the RUL prediction to achieve errors as low as ∼5 cycles and root mean square error of 6.24 cycles, outperforming other benchmark studies on Li-ion battery RUL prediction that use more battery degradation data without temporal identifier.

Comparison between statistical and machine learning methods to detect the hematological indices with the greatest influence on elevated serum levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol

IntroductionElevated levels of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) is a significant risk factor for the development of cardiovascular diseases (CVD)s. Furthermore, studies have revealed an association between indices of the complete blood count (CBC) and dyslipidemia. We aimed to investigate the relationship between CBC parameters and serum levels of LDL. MethodIn a prospective study involving 9704 participants aged 35–65 years, comprehensive screening was conducted to estimate LDL-C levels and CBC indicators. The association between these biomarkers and high LDL-C (LDL-C≥130 mg/dL (3.25 mmol/L)) was investigated using various analytical methods, including Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Neural Network (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methodologies. ResultThe present study found that age, hemoglobin (HGB), hematocrit (HCT), platelet count (PLT), lymphocyte (LYM), PLT-LYM ratio (PLR), PLT-High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) ratio (PHR), HGB-LYM ratio (HLR), red blood cell count (RBC), Neutrophil-HDL ratio (NHR), and PLT-RBC ratio (PRR) were all statistically significant between the two groups (p<0.05). Another important finding was that red cell distribution width (RDW) was a significant predictor for higher LDL levels in women. Furthermore, in men, RDW-PLT ratio (RPR) and PHR were the most important indicators for assessing the elevated LDL levels. ConclusionThe study found that sex increases LDL-C odds in females by 52.9 %, while age and HCT increase it by 4.1 % and 5.5 %, respectively. RPR and PHR were the most influential variables for both genders. Elevated RPR and PHR were negatively correlated with increased LDL levels in men, and RDW levels was a statistically significant factor for women. Moreover, RDW was a significant factor in women for high levels of HDL-C.The study revealed that females have higher LDL-C levels (16 % compared to 14 % of males), with significant differences across variables like age, HGB, HCT, PLT, RLR, PHR, RBC, LYM, NHR, RPR, and key factors like RDW and SII.

A comparison of meteorological normalization of PM2.5 by multiple linear regression, general additive model, and random forest methods

PM2.5 is still one of the major atmospheric pollutants worldwide. Extracting contributions of anthropogenic emission control from the observed PM2.5 variations (PM2.5_anth), which are also strongly affected by meteorological changes, is critical for effective pollution control. Statistical and machine learning methods are usually used for such purpose, but the effectiveness of these methods is hard to evaluate due to the lack of observed anthropogenic contributions. In this study, we use the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem standard simulation to mimic PM2.5 variability in the real atmosphere, and use the model simulation with fixed meteorological fields as the “true value” for PM2.5_anth. We evaluate the effectiveness of three methods in meteorological normalization of PM2.5 on decadal (2006–2017) and synoptic (one month) scale: multiple linear regression (MLR), general additive model (GAM), and random forest (RF) algorithm. For meteorological normalization of PM2.5 on decadal scale, 67–72% of the MLR simulations show positive biases and 56–75% of the RF simulations show negative biases. The “true value” of PM2.5_anth falls within the range of meteorological normalization results of the three methods in most cases, but consistent positive/negative biases are observed in ∼30% of the cases, when meteorological changes dominate PM2.5 variability. In addition, the biases are correlated to the contribution of meteorological changes. As such, multiple statistical or machine learning methods are recommended to quantify the uncertainties associated with method choice in cases anthropogenic emission changes dominate PM2.5 variability. On synoptic scale, RF performs better in reproducing the daily variations of the PM2.5_anth differences than MLR (GAM) in all (83% of) the cases, and is recommended for meteorological normalization of PM2.5 in short-term in eastern China.

Developing some models to predict the uniaxial compressive strength of various sedimentary rocks (Case studies: Large dam site and mine in Southeast China)

Direct determination of uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) is time-consuming, expensive, and challenging. Therefore, this study aims to indirectly predict UCS using statistical and machine learning methods. First, laboratory measurements were conducted to determine carbonate percentage, water absorption percentage, moisture content, porosity percentage, P-wave velocity, and UCS of sandstone, dolomite, dolomitic limestone, marl limestone, and limestone samples. Subsequently, various models were established to predict UCS using multivariate linear regression (MVLR), random forest regression (RFR), Gaussian process regression (GPR) based on squared exponential kernel function, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The influence of Jurassic limestone texture on physical and mechanical properties in stable and unstable slopes in the Three Gorges Dam site and reservoir (TGDSR) showed that the percentage of mudstone texture in unstable slopes is higher than in stable slopes. The UCS, density, compressional wave velocity, and percentage of carbonate in unstable slopes is less than stable slopes. The results indicated that the average measured UCS is 60.60 MPa. Moreover, the average predicted UCS based on the three intelligent methods was 60.55 MPa. The percentage difference between the measured and predicted UCS was −0.09 %, demonstrating that the average error of the three employed methods is less than one percent, highlighting the high accuracy of these methods in estimating rock UCS. Notably, based on error level, Taylor diagram, Wilmot agreement index (WAI), A10 and A20 indices, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and PM (performance metric) criteria the RFR exhibited superior precision (R2=99 %, and RMSE= 0.06 MPa) compared to the other used methods. The Kruskal-Wallis test (KWT) results showed that there is no significant difference between the measured and predicted values.

Development of a Nomogram-Integrated Model Incorporating Intra-tumoral and Peri-tumoral Ultrasound Radiomics Alongside Clinical Parameters for the Prediction of Histological Grading in Invasive Breast Cancer

To develop a comprehensive nomogram to predict the histological grading of breast cancer and further examine its clinical significance by integrating both intra-tumoral and peri-tumoral ultrasound radiomics features. In a retrospective study 468 female breast cancer patients were analyzed from 2017 to 2020 at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University. Patients were grouped into high-grade (n = 215) and low-grade (n = 253) categories based on pathological evaluation. Tumor regions of interest were defined and expanded automatically to peri-tumor regions of interest. Ultrasound radiomics features were extracted independently. To ensure rigor, cases were randomly divided into 80% training and 20% test sets. Optimal features were selected using statistical and machine learning methods. Intra-tumor, peri-tumor, and combined radiomics models were constructed. To determine the best predictors of breast cancer histological grading, we screened the features using single- and multi-factor logistic regression analyses. Finally, a nomogram was developed and evaluated for its predictive value in this context. By applying logistic regression, we integrated ultrasound, clinicopathologic, and radiomics features to generate a nomogram. The combined model outperformed others, achieving areas under the curve of 0.934 and 0.812 in training and test sets. Calibration curves also showed high accuracy and reliability. A nomogram constructed through the integration of combined intra-tumor-peri-tumor ultrasound radiomics features along with clinicopathologic characteristics exhibited remarkable performance in distinguishing the histologic grades of invasive breast cancer.

Ứng dụng phương pháp học máy dự báo mức độ căng thẳng tài chính của doanh nghiệp niêm yết tại Việt Nam

This study utilizes the traditional statistical method and machine learning methods to forecast the level of financial distress of listed companies in Vietnam. The data used in the study was collected from 646 listed companies on the HOSE and HNX exchanges during the period from 2012 to 2022. The study experiments with the dataset on 6 machine learning models: Multiple Regression Model (MRL), LASSO, Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Random Forests (RF), Gradient Boosting Regression Trees (GBRT), and a single layer, feed forward neural network (NN), as well as the traditional statistical method. The research results demonstrate a congruence between the outcomes of the traditional method and modern machine learning models. Among these, the model with the highest accuracy is Random Forest (RF) with an accuracy rate of 98.8%. The variables that most influence the financial distress status of companies are TANG, ROA, LTD, NPM. Based on these results, our study proposes recommendations to support informed and effective financial decisions for stakeholders (companies, regulatory agencies, shareholders, creditors, investors).

Application of multiparametric methods of data science for the classification of Russian subjects on the basis of subsidisation

The relevance of the study is justified by the importance of monitoring and forecasting the subsidisation of the Russian regions in order to identify the main criteria for classifying subjects on the basis of subsidisation. In a brief review of the literature, mathematical models used to model the subsidisation of the Russian regions are considered. They have mainly fixed socio-economic indicators that need to be given attention while applying, and also regression models are used, but mathematically sound recommendations for the withdrawal of regions from clusters of subsidisation are not provided. The paper analyses the socio-economic and demographic indicators of the Russian regions applying methods that identify patterns in a multiparametric dataset. The methods of traditional statistical analysis and machine learning, including the author’s ones, are used. Statistically significant patterns have been identified, reflecting the relationship of subsidisation with such indicators as investments in fixed capital, fixed assets, average per capita income and average size of assigned pensions, unemployment rate, etc. The performed logical and statistical analysis strongly supports the use of machine learning (Data Science) methods in identifying statistically significant relationships between various indicators characterising the development of the regions of the Russian Federation.

ANALIZA STATYSTYK SIECI KOMPUTEROWYCH W CELU IDENTYFIKACJI PRZEPŁYWÓW INFORMACJI ZAKŁÓCAJĄCYCH STABILNOŚĆ W WOJSKOWYCH SIECIACH LOKALNYCH

The increasing complexity and scope of military computer networks necessitate robust methods to ensure network stability and security. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of computer network statistics in military local networks to develop a method for detecting information flows that disrupt stability. By leveraging advanced statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms, this research aims to enhance the cybersecurity posture of military local networks globally. Military networks are vital for communication, data exchange, and operational coordination. However, the dynamic nature of network traffic and the persistent threat of cyberattacks pose significant challenges to maintaining network stability. Traditional monitoring techniques often fail to meet the unique requirements of military networks, which demand high levels of security and rapid response capabilities. This study employs a multi-faceted approach to detect anomalies in network traffic, utilizing statistical methods such as Z-score analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Machine learning techniques, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, Neural Networks, K-means clustering, and Reinforcement Learning, are also applied to identify patterns indicative of stability-disrupting information flows. The integration of statistical and machine learning methods forms a hybrid model that enhances anomaly detection, providing a robust framework for network security. The research problem is formulated as follows: does data collection include comprehensive network traffic data from various segments of military local area networks, including packet flows, transmission rates, and error rates over a specified period? Statistical analysis identifies patterns in the network traffic, which are then used to train machine learning models to classify normal and abnormal traffic. The research hypothesis states that machine learning models achieve high accuracy in detecting stability-disrupting information flows, with a precision rate exceeding 90%. The models identified several instances of stability-disrupting events, correlating these with known security incidents to validate the effectiveness of the detection method. This study underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and analysis of network statistics to ensure stability and security. The proposed method can be integrated with existing network monitoring and intrusion detection systems, providing a comprehensive approach to network security. Future research can build on these findings to develop more sophisticated models and explore additional factors influencing network stability, including the incorporation of advanced machine learning techniques, such as deep learning, and the exploration of other network metrics, like latency and packet loss. This comprehensive approach aims to enhance the security and operational reliability of military local networks.