Static Coulomb Stress Research Articles

An Unambiguous Signature of Pore Fluid Aftershock Triggering in the Landers Earthquake Sequence

Aftershocks within an extensional fault discontinuity of the 1992 Landers, California earthquake rupture occurred at an approximately constant rate for over three years following the mainshock. This contrasts with most of the rest of the aftershock sequence, and aftershock sequences in general, for which aftershock rates decay following Omori’s law. The protracted aftershocks in the fault discontinuity can be understood if pore fluids are present at seismogenic depths and trigger seismicity as they flow to equilibrate pore pressure during the transition from the immediate, undrained to the eventual, drained condition. Changes in pore fluid pressure modulated by changes in the mean normal stress provide a clear and unambiguous signature of fluid effects in earthquake triggering. If this result generalizes to other settings, it suggests a predictable time-dependent component to the pattern of aftershock triggering not accounted for in models of Coulomb static stress triggering.

Kinematics of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Doublet: Biased Near-Fault Data and Shallow Slip Deficit

Abstract Accurate estimate of the shallow slip deficit (SSD) for large strike-slip events is highly dependent on near-fault data. Previous studies have estimated the SSD of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet, which may vary from a few percent to about 50%. Whether this reduced shallow slip is real or artificial is crucial for understanding the seismic hazards during and following the earthquake doublet. In this study, we inverted for the kinematic slip of this earthquake doublet with refined near-fault Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations and compared the results with the source model without further data processing. The model that excludes nonphysical data produced only ∼6% and ∼22% SSD for the M7.8 and 7.6 events, respectively, compared to ∼44% and ∼53% SSD of the model using original data. The increased data gap generally leads to overestimated SSD, but when the data coverage is almost complete, our result shows that the SSD is very sensitive to biased near-fault data which may induce significant artificial SSD. Our results suggest that overestimated SSD may be accompanied by slip migration from shallow toward deeper depths, to meet the total moment or energy release constrained by surface displacement data. The M7.8 event increased static Coulomb stress at where the second M7.6 event nucleated and thus may have triggered the following event.

Cascade processes of induced and triggered earthquakes-Case study in the Weiyuan shale gas development area in Sichuan Basin, China

Identifying accurate seismogenic faults is critical for studying the mechanisms of induced earthquakes. On February 24th and 25th, 2019, three moderate earthquakes with magnitudes of MS 4.7, MS 4.3, and MS 4.9 occurred successively in the shale gas development area of Weiyuan, China. We utilized high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) seismic data to identify two pre-existing faults (F1 and F2) that were responsible for the three moderate earthquakes. InSAR data were used to validate the rationality of the two seismogenic faults. Furthermore, we analyzed the impact of fluid diffusion on fault F1 near the fracturing well and calculated the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) generated on fault F2 by the MS 4.7 and MS 4.3 earthquakes to analyze the interactions between these events. The results indicated that fluid diffusion caused by hydrofracturing induced the MS 4.3 and MS 4.7 earthquakes on F1. The static Coulomb stress changes from these two earthquakes subsequently triggered the larger MS 4.9 earthquake on F2. This study provides a case of a cascading process in which induced earthquake events triggered a more distant and higher-magnitude earthquake. This triggering scenario reminds us that earthquake-to-earthquake interactions may be more hazardous than a “typical” inducing mechanism and challenges current risk management practices.

Pore Fluid Pressure in St. Gallen Geothermal Field (Switzerland) Based on Earthquake Focal Mechanisms

AbstractInduced seismicity represents a negative drawback during subsurface exploitation for geothermal energy production. Understanding the triggering mechanisms of induced earthquakes can help implement effective seismic hazard mitigation actions. Among the triggering mechanisms, the pore fluid pressure is of primary importance. Here we provide a static picture of the excess pore fluid pressure at the hypocenters of a seismic sequence induced at the deep geothermal field in St. Gallen, Switzerland, in July 2013. We find that in addition to the Coulomb static stress change, fluids play a key role in promoting the sequence. The estimated excess pore fluid pressure for approximately half of the earthquakes is higher than the injection pressure necessary during the well control phase to fight the unexpected gas kick, that accidently occurred during field operations when a trap of overpressured gas was broken.

Complex Rupture Features and Triggering during the 2022 Chishang Earthquake Sequence in Eastern Taiwan Estimated by InSAR, GPS, Strong Motion, and Teleseismic Waveform Evidence

Abstract The most recent 2022 Chishang earthquake sequence broke a long-time seismic quiescence on the Central Range fault (CRF), attracting lots of attention to the seismic behaviors and fault interactions of the Longitudinal Valley zone (LVZ), eastern Taiwan orogeny. However, detailed rupture features of both the foreshock and mainshock are still scarce. Here, available static displacements (i.e., Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar [InSAR], Global Positioning System [GPS], and strong motion [SM]) and kinematic waveform evidence (i.e., high-frequency GPS, strong motion, and teleseismic data) are used to delineate the rupture behaviors of both the foreshock and mainshock in this sequence. Our results indicate that the static displacements derived from strong-motion sites rival the high precision of GPS observations, replenishing the near-field constraints on the hanging wall together with InSAR and GPS. The optimal uniform slip models exhibit that both the foreshock and mainshock generally ruptured the west-dipping CRF along the south-southwest-striking direction with a steep dip angle >65°. The slip distribution models revealed that the rupture of foreshock and mainshock nearly ruptured a total length of CRF within 65 km from the Guanshan to Ruisui at a depth of above 14 km, and their slips are concentrated within one asperity and two asperities, respectively. The spatial evolution of this sequence’s ruptures exhibits a discontinued and separated pattern, and is well consistent with the local seismicity. Considering that the mainshock was initialed in a weak slip and negative static Coulomb stress region caused by the foreshock, the 2022 sequence occurrence is in favor of a preslip triggering mechanism. The rupture region of the 2022 sequence filled the “seismic gap” along the western flank of the LVZ and will promote the potential seismic hazard in this region.

Unraveling the Complex Interplay: Exploring the Relationships between Seismic and Volcanic Activities in the Colca River Area Using the Coulomb Stress Transfer

Abstract The Colca River area is affected by shallow small-to-moderate earthquakes due to the activity of normal and strike-slip crustal faults on the overriding South American plate. In addition, volcanic activity from the Sabancaya volcano has been recorded. However, the complex relationship between seismic and volcanic activities and the factors that trigger them are poorly understood. To better understand the factors that influence seismic and volcanic activity and their potential connection, it is crucial to characterize the interactions between subsequent earthquakes and assess the impact of magmatic inflation on seismic events. In this study, we analyzed the static Coulomb stress transfer caused by the selected largest earthquakes from 1991 to 2022. We focused on both the assumed source faults and the receiver faults. Furthermore, we examined the Coulomb stress change due to magmatic inflation in 2013–2022 on nodal planes of the selected earthquakes. The results confirm the tectonic source for most earthquakes in the Colca region. Commonly, the magmatic source enhanced the stress change induced by the tectonic source. Although the Coulomb stress change caused by the significant earthquakes had a greater impact than the one resulting from the magmatic inflation, the Coulomb stress transfer seems not to be a dominant factor determining the occurrence and location of earthquakes in this area. The results indicate that most source faults of the analyzed earthquakes were not brought closer to failure due to a positive Coulomb stress transfer caused by seismic activity or magmatic inflation.

Unravelling seismogenesis and characterizing the unique features of two significant felt earthquakes (M > 4.0) of 2020 in the southwestern parts of the Delhi region

Two significant earthquakes (M4.6 and 4.2) occurred close to a NE–SW-trending lineament in the southwestern part of the Delhi NCR (National Capital Region) within a short time span of about 5 months in 2020. These events were located to the north of the Alwar district in Rajasthan and generated a significant ground shaking in and around Delhi. In the present study, we tried to understand a causal relationship between the events and a nearby source in the region, geologically demarcated as the lineament. We analyzed the broadband waveform data from 26 seismic stations that recorded the recent events of 03 July 2020 (M4.6) and 17 December 2020 (M4.2). Typically, the epicentral area has been devoid of significant earthquakes since the past six decades; however, a few minor events (M < 4.0) have been recorded till date. Analysis of the earthquake database for two decades (2000–2022) revealed low seismicity (nearly quiescent-like situation) in ∼100 sq km area around the epicentral zone, unlike considerable seismicity along faults/lineaments close to the Delhi region. The full-waveform inversion analyses of the events indicate normal faulting with a minor strike–slip components. The source parameters, viz., source radius, stress drop, and seismic moment, were estimated to be 6 km, 166 bars, and 8.28E+15 Nm, respectively, for the 03 July 2020 event and 4 km, 138 bars, and 2.29E+15 Nm, respectively, for the 17 December 2020 event. The causative source of these events is ascertained based on the stress inversion modeling that indicated a NW–SE tensile stress corroborating well with the NE–SW-trending lineament mapped in the study region. The static Coulomb stress modeling indicated that the event which occurred on 3 July 2020 had advanced the triggering process of the event in the northeast segment of the same source that occurred on 17 December 2020. We further emphasize that the aforementioned lineament probably activated due to the regional tectonics of the study area. The causative source of these events with strike 48°, dip 86°, and rake −60° is found to be in the conformity with the local tectonics and is well-supplemented by a high stress ratio (0.70 ± 0.05) and low friction coefficient (0.5).

Nearly Simultaneous Pairs and Triplets of Historical Destructive Earthquakes with Distant Epicenters in the Italian Apennines

Abstract Historical seismic catalogs of Italy record several instances of pairs or triplets of large earthquakes (Mw>6.7) along the Apennine chain, occurring on the same date or within a short time frame (days or weeks). Some of these events have mesoseismic areas tens of kilometers apart and/or seismogenic structures located more than 1–3 times the fault length away. Although in the case of aligned and/or contiguous faults, their cascading activation can be explained by variations in static Coulomb stress, in the case of distant faults, this mechanism could sometimes be replaced by what is known as dynamic triggering, which is caused by the passage of seismic waves generated by a remote source. In this study, I analyze three significant ancient seismic sequences that occurred in the south-central Apennines, suggesting that the extent of the destructive effects of these earthquakes can be attributed to remote dynamic triggering, causing the activation of different and unrelated seismogenic structures within a specific time frame.

Three-dimensional finite-element modeling of Coulomb stress changes on normal and thrust faults caused by pore fluid pressure changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation

Abstract The analysis of Coulomb stress changes has become an important tool for seismic hazard evaluation because such stress changes may trigger or delay subsequent earthquakes. Processes that can cause significant Coulomb stress changes include coseismic slip and transient postseismic processes such as poroelastic effects and viscoelastic relaxation. However, the combined influence of poroelastic effects and viscoelastic relaxation on co- and postseismic Coulomb stress changes has not been systematically studied so far. Here, we use three-dimensional finite-element models with arrays of normal and thrust faults to investigate how pore fluid pressure changes and viscoelastic relaxation overlap during the postseismic phase. In different experiments, we vary the permeability of the upper crust and the viscosity of the lower crust or lithospheric mantle while keeping the other parameters constant. In addition, we perform experiments in which we combine a high (low) permeability of the upper crust with a low (high) viscosity of the lower crust. Our results show that the coseismic (i.e., static) Coulomb stress changes are altered by the signal from poroelastic effects and viscoelastic relaxation during the first month after the earthquake. For sufficiently low viscosities, the Coulomb stress change patterns show a combined signal from poroelastic and viscoelastic effects already during the first postseismic year. For sufficiently low permeabilities, Coulomb stress changes induced by poroelastic effects overlap with the signals from viscoelastic relaxation and interseismic stress accumulation for decades. Our results imply that poroelastic and viscoelastic effects have a strong impact on postseismic Coulomb stress changes and should therefore be considered together when analyzing Coulomb stress transfer between faults.

Focal Mechanism and Regional Fault Activity Analysis of 2022 Luding Strong Earthquake Constraint by InSAR and Its Inversion

On 5 September 2022, an Ms6.8 magnitude earthquake occurred in Luding County, Sichuan Province, China. Based on Sentinel-1 SAR images, this paper uses the D-InSAR approach to obtain the displacement field of the earthquake, invert the coseismic sliding distribution, and then calculate the static coulomb stress changes of the coseismic deformation on the aftershock distribution and surrounding faults. Further, the seismic structure is analyzed and discussed. The InSAR coseismic deformation field demonstrates that the maximum LoS displacement of the surface deformation caused by the Luding earthquake is about 15 cm. The Luding Ms 6.8 earthquake is dominated by the Moxi fault, which is a left-lateral strike-slip fault that ruptures along the NNW-SSE trend at about 160.3°, and the dip is 81°. The fault depth is mainly 5~15 km, the maximum sliding amount is about 174.8 cm, and the corresponding depth is 8.5 km. The seismic moment tensor obtained by inversion is 1.06 × 1019 Nm, Mw = 6.65. The Coulomb stress generated by the Luding earthquake on the northern end of the Anninghe fault zone exceeded the trigger threshold. The risk of the Anninghe fault’s future earthquake was greater, and continuous monitoring and risk assessment were required.

Source mechanisms and triggering process for the April 12th and 13th, 2014 earthquake doublet in the Solomon Islands

Mw 7.6 and Mw 7.4 earthquakes occurred 16 h apart on April 12 and April 13, 2014, at depths of 15 km and 35 km, respectively, southwest of Makira Island (San Cristobal) in the Solomon Islands. We study the source mechanisms to investigate the interrelation between the two events, and to investigate why the Solomon Islands have a historically high rate of doublet earthquakes. Teleseismic P waveform data for both events were used to obtain the slip distributions for the two earthquakes by a finite fault slip inversion method. The Mw 7.6 event is an east–west left-lateral strike slip, where the maximum slip is observed 8–24 km east of the hypocenter. The Mw 7.4 earthquake is a thrust event with north and south-dipping nodal planes. The fault plane is not clear from the aftershock distribution, but the north-dipping plane considered to be the likely fault plane because of the simpler slip distribution compared to the south-dipping plane. The static Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the first earthquake were calculated in the region of the second earthquake. The results show that there was a + 48.59 kPa change at the hypocenter for the assumed north-dipping plane and + 18.24 kPa for the assumed south-dipping plane of the Mw 7.4 event. The temporal pattern of aftershocks shows a possible rate increase of stress prior to the occurrence of the Mw 7.4 events, which may also contribute to the triggering of the second event by static Coulomb Stress changes. We propose a model that supports the geological complexity of the region that may encourage such doublet events.Graphical

The 2022 Delingha, China, Earthquake Sequence and Implication for Seismic Hazard near the Western End of the Qilian–Haiyuan Fault

Abstract Although the Qilian–Haiyuan fault is known to be responsible for major earthquakes up to M 8, the potential of damaging earthquakes near its western end is not well understood. Since January 2022, three moderate earthquakes (M 5.8, M 6.0, and M 5.4) occurred around the Halahu region of Delingha, China, near the western end of the Qilian–Haiyuan fault. These earthquakes are unusual M 5+ events in this low-seismicity region, and both the U.S. Geological Survey and Global Centroid Moment Tensor solutions suggest that the focal mechanisms of the three mainshocks are distinct from the activity characteristics of the nearby mapped faults. Thus, determining the precise source parameters and identifying the causative fault of this earthquake sequence are important to analyze its seismogenic settings and seismic hazard in this region. In this article, we determined the point-source parameters of the three moderate events via regional waveform modeling and found that these earthquakes are strike-slip events with the nodal planes striking nearly north–south and east–west directions. We then resolved its seismogenic faults by analyzing the aftershock distribution and the rupture directivity. The results show that both the M 5.8 and M 6.0 events ruptured along the north–south nodal plane and expanded toward the south for ∼4 km and ∼3 km, respectively, and the ruptured fault of the M 5.4 is difficult to distinguish. Furthermore, we constrained the relative location using the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observation, and the result is consistent with that obtained from seismic waveform data. We proposed that this earthquake sequence ruptured along an unmapped dextral fault, which forms a conjugate fault system with the sinistral strike-slip Qilian–Haiyuan fault. Its deformation mechanism may be controlled by long-term, protracted, nearly north–south-trending, right-lateral simple shear in the Qilian Shan fold-thrust belt. The accumulated static Coulomb stress changes resulted in the northwest of this ruptured fault being closer to failure in the future.

Satellite based detection of pre-earthquake thermal anomaly, co-seismic deformation and source parameter modelling of past earthquakes

The presented work brings satellite-based detection of pre-earthquake transient thermal anomaly and coseismic deformation mechanism using InSAR (SAR Interferometry) observations of the two major earthquakes that occurred recently (the Iran-Iraq border earthquake of Nov. 12, 2017 (Mw 7.3) and the New Mirpur, Pakistan earthquake of 24th Sept. 2019 (Mw 5.4)). Near Iran-Iraq border earthquake, a rise of 4–6 ​°C from the normal temperature in both day and night Land Surface Temperature (LST) maps along the SW part of the fault is observed. In case of the New Mirpur, Pakistan earthquake, a rise of 3–5 ​°C from normal temperature in both day and night LST maps around the SSW and NW side of the epicenter is observed. Further, Sentinel-1A microwave satellite data employing InSAR technique have been used to estimate co-seismic ground deformations and fault geometry and slip distribution of both earthquakes. The results show that both events occurred due to blind reverse fault mechanism dipping NE with shallow dip. The weightage of strike slip component and dip slip component is more or less equal to each other in total slip distribution for Iran-Iraq border earthquake. Similarly, New Mirpur, Pakistan earthquake have more strike slip components than dip slip components in the weightage in total slip distribution. Considerable number of aftershocks have also occurred in the regions as estimated by coulomb static stress along the SW side of the fault geometry of Iran-Iraq border earthquake and for New Mirpur, Pakistan earthquake, along the SSW, NW, and east side of the fault geometry. The correlation between high stress regions before and after the occurrence of earthquakes using thermal anomaly map and Coulomb static stress map has been also observed.

Cascading Hazards in a Migrating Forearc‐Arc System: Earthquake and Eruption Triggering in Nicaragua

AbstractStrain partitioning in oblique convergent margins results in margin‐parallel shear in the overriding plate. Margin‐parallel shear is often accommodated by margin‐parallel strike‐slip faults proximal to active volcanic arcs. Along the Nicaraguan segment of the Central American Forearc (CAFA) in the Cocos‐Caribbean plate convergent margin, there are no well‐expressed right‐lateral faults that accommodate CA‐CAFA relative motion. Instead, historical earthquakes and mapped fault orientations indicate that the ∼12 mm/yr of dextral motion is accommodated on arc‐normal, left‐lateral faults (i.e., bookshelf faults). We investigate three upper‐plate earthquakes; the 10 April 2014 (Mw 6.1), 15 September 2016 (Mw 5.7), and 28 September 2016 (Mw 5.5), using Global Position System co‐seismic displacements and relocated earthquake aftershocks. Our analyses of the three earthquakes indicate that the 10 April 2014 earthquake ruptured an unmapped margin‐parallel right‐lateral fault in Lago Xolotlán (Managua) and the September 2016 earthquakes ruptured arc‐normal, left‐lateral and oblique‐slip faults. These earthquakes represent a triggered sequence whereby the 10 April 2014 earthquake promoted failure of the faults that ruptured in September 2016 by imparting a static Coulomb stress change (ΔCFS) of 0.02–0.07 MPa. Likewise, the 15 September 2016, earthquake additionally promoted failure (ΔCFS of 0.08–0.1 MPa) on sub‐parallel faults that ruptured in two subsequent earthquakes. We also present an instance of magma‐tectonic interaction whereby the 10 April 2014 earthquake dilated (10s of μStrain) the shallow magmatic system of Momotombo Volcano, which led to magma injection, ascent, and eruption on 1 December 2015, after ∼100 years of quiescence.

The 2015–2017 Pamir earthquake sequence: foreshocks, main shocks and aftershocks, seismotectonics, fault interaction and fluid processes

SUMMARYA sequence of three strong (MW7.2, 6.4, 6.6) earthquakes struck the Pamir of Central Asia in 2015–2017. With a local seismic network, we recorded the succession of the foreshock, main shock and aftershock sequences at local distances with good azimuthal coverage. We located 11 784 seismic events and determined 33 earthquake moment tensors. The seismicity delineates the tectonic structures of the Pamir in unprecedented detail, that is the thrusts that absorb shortening along the Pamir’s thrust front, and the strike-slip and normal faults that dissect the Pamir Plateau into a westward extruding block and a northward advancing block. Ruptures on the kinematically dissimilar faults were activated subsequently from the initial MW 7.2 Sarez event at times and distances that follow a diffusion equation. All main shock areas but the initial one exhibited foreshock activity, which was not modulated by the occurrence of the earlier earthquakes. Modelling of the static Coulomb stress changes indicates that aftershock triggering occurred over distances of ≤90 km on favourably oriented faults. The third event in the sequence, the MW 6.6 Muji earthquake, ruptured despite its repeated stabilization through stress transfer in the order of –10 kPa. To explain the accumulation of MW > 6 earthquakes, we reason that the initial main shock may have increased nearby fault permeability, and facilitated fluid migration into the mature fault zones, eventually triggering the later large earthquakes.

Source Model for the 2022 Qinghai Menyuan Ms 6.9 Earthquake Based on D-InSAR

On 8 January 2022, an Ms 6.9 earthquake occurred in Menyuan County, Qinghai Province, China. This earthquake ruptured a patch of the Qilian-Haiyuan fault in the northeast margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In order to understand the seismogenic structure of this earthquake and analyze the fault activity, we use differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (D-InSAR) technology to obtain a complete co-seismic displacement field on the surface, and use pixel tracking algorithm to extract the trace of the ruptured fault. The slip distribution of the seismogenic fault was inverted using the steepest descent method, and the Coulomb stress change caused by the earthquake was also calculated. Surface deformation results show that the Menyuan earthquake produced obvious surface displacements in an area of 50 × 40 km2. The displacements are mainly distributed in the western segment of the Lenglongling fault and the eastern segment of the Tolaishan fault. The maximum displacements in the ascending and descending orbits in the LOS direction are 59.7 and 94.7 cm, respectively. The co-seismic slip results show that the strike, dip and average slip angles of the seismogenic fault are 108°, 79° dipping to SW, and 4°, respectively. On the whole, the fault is mainly of left-lateral, with a small amount of thrust component and only one co-seismic rupture center in our inversion result. The rupture center is located at a depth of ∼5 km below the surface, and the maximum slip is 3.1 m. The total seismic moment released by this earthquake is 1.28 × 1019 N·m, and the corresponding moment magnitude is 6.67. Finally, the static Coulomb stress change results show that parts of the Lenglongling fault, the Tolaishan fault, the Sunan-Qilian fault and the Minyue-Damaging fault are loaded, emphasizing the importance for earthquake risk assessment of these fault.

Earthquakes in the Shadows: Why Aftershocks Occur at Surprising Locations

Abstract For decades there has been a debate about the relative effects of dynamic versus static stress triggering of aftershocks. According to the static Coulomb stress change hypothesis, aftershocks should not occur in stress shadows—regions where static Coulomb stress has been reduced. We show that static stress shadows substantially influence aftershock occurrence following three M ≥ 7 California mainshocks. Within the modeled static Coulomb stress shadows, the aftershock rate is an order of magnitude lower than in the modeled increase regions. However, the earthquake rate in the stress shadows does not decrease below the background rate, as predicted by Coulomb stress change models. Aftershocks in the stress shadows exhibit different spatial–temporal characteristics from aftershocks in the stress increase regions. The aftershock rate in the stress shadows decays as a power law with distance from the mainshock, consistent with a simple model of dynamic stress triggering. These aftershocks begin with a burst of activity during the first few days after the mainshock, also consistent with dynamic stress triggering. Our interpretation is that aftershock sequences are the combined result of static and dynamic stress triggering, with an estimated ∼34% of aftershocks due to dynamic triggering and ∼66% due to static triggering.

Evaluating the coulomb static stress change and fault interaction in an extensional intra-volcanic arc: 1000 years of earthquake history in the Acambay Graben, Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

One of the main challenges in slow slip-rate intra-continental fault systems is evaluating which fault could generate the next large earthquake. Therefore, it is crucial to characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of the seismicity and to understand the influence of moderate to large earthquakes on successive events. The Acambay Graben, in the central part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, is an intra-continental normal fault system and the source of the 1912 Acambay earthquake (mb = 6.9) that ruptured mainly the Acambay-Tixmadejé fault as well as other fault segments of the graben. Paleoseismological studies have identified earlier events significant events produced by other graben faults, such as the Venta de Bravo Fault event occurred between 1026 and 1700 CE. In this study, we model the static Coulomb stress transfer related to the 1026–1700 and the 1912 CE events showing that the older event may have set the conditions to induce or accelerate the historical 1912 Acambay earthquake. In the same way, this last event could have triggered the Maravatío earthquake (February 22, 1979, Mw = 5.3). Furthermore, the cumulative variation of the Coulomb stress (Ev1 = 0.5–10 bar, Ev2 = 5–30 bar, Ev3 = 0.5–1 bar) corresponding to the three events reveals a spatial correlation between the areas that have experienced an increase in static stress with the regional distribution of the instrumental seismicity. The obtained results suggest that some active faults of the graben, which have accumulated static stress during the last 1000 years, are potential sources for the next fault rupture, i.e., faults that would need to be better studied and characterized. This information is of great importance to improve the seismic hazard assessment and risk estimations in the heavily populated Central Mexico region with more than 24 million people and better understand the fault interaction in slow slip-rate intra-continental fault systems.

Quantitative Evaluation of Coseismic Deformations Induced by Seismogenic Faulting in Mining Exploration Area During the 2018 Xingwen and 2019 Changning Earthquakes, Sichuan, China

In the period between December 2018 and July 2019, a series of earthquakes (EQs), including the 16 December 2018 Ms 5.7 Xingwen mainshock and the 17 June 2019 Ms 6.0 Changning mainshock, struck the Changning shale gas exploration field in the southern margin of the Sichuan Basin. The Xingwen and Changning EQs both occurred on concealed faults, which led to hundreds of casualties, and affected a total of over 160 thousand people in southern Sichuan. The aftershock sequences following the Xingwen and Changning EQs were clustered in the vicinity of the Jianwu syncline and Changning anticline, respectively, and occurred mostly at depths of 3–7 km. In this study, coseismic surface deformation measurements obtained through differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (D-InSAR) data were used to identify the faulting geometries and distributions. The coseismic deformation maps have maximum line-of-sight (LOS) displacements of ∼4.53 cm on the northwest side of the Xingwen EQ source fault and ∼7.84 cm on the southwest side of the Changning EQ source fault. The calculated static Coulomb stress changes indicated that most aftershocks occurred in increasing stress zones following the mainshock ruptures. From the InSAR deformation field, a complicated concealed seismogenic doublet fault was inferred, which predominately exhibited left-lateral strike-slip motion during the Xingwen and Changning EQs. The footwall ramp of the basement fault reactivated first, and resulted in the Xingwen EQ and concentrating stresses beneath the Changning anticline, which induced the Changning EQ half a year later. Compared with previous studies, we proposed that the fault network was lubricated by water that was injected during shale gas exploration, facilitating the occurrence of the Xingwen and Changning EQs. Such work evaluated the coseismic deformations of the Xingwen and Changning EQs, and derived the regional faulting distribution from aftershock sequences. It could provide useful information for monitoring and analyzing seismic activity around the hinge zones of folds in mining exploration areas, which contributes to effective risk assessment of disasters associated with seismic geo-environments.

Lithospheric Deformation Due To the 2015 M7.2 Sarez (Pamir) Earthquake Constrained by 5 years of Space Geodetic Observations

AbstractThe 2015 M7.2 Sarez (Pamir) earthquake occurred at the north‐west margin of the Tibetan Plateau. We use Sentinel‐1 and ALOS‐2 Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Navigation Satellite System data to investigate coseismic and postseismic deformation due to the Sarez earthquake. Kinematic inversions show that the earthquake ruptured a ∼80 km long, sub‐vertical fault producing the maximum surface offset of 3–4 m on the south‐west and central fault segments. In contrast, the largest postseismic displacements are observed at the north‐east end of the earthquake rupture, predominantly on the west (hanging wall) side of the fault with an average rate of 20–30 mm/yr in the satellite line of sight. We use the derived coseismic and postseismic slip models to investigate mechanisms of time‐dependent relaxation, stress transfer and possible triggering relationships between the Sarez earthquake and a sequence of strong M6+ events that occurred within ∼100 km of the 2015 earthquake. We find that the near‐field postseismic displacements are best explained by shallow afterslip driven by the coseismic stress changes. The data also allow some contribution from poroelastic rebound, but do not show a clear signature of viscoelastic relaxation in the lower crust and upper mantle during the observation period, suggesting a lower bound on the effective viscosity of ∼1019 Pa s. A pair of M6+ events that occurred within 100 km and several months of the 2015 mainshock have experienced near‐zero and in some cases negative static Coulomb stress changes, suggesting either delayed dynamic triggering, or no relation to the mainshock.