State Capacity Research Articles

Networks rewired: quota enforcement and the unintended mobilization of native place ties

Abstract We explore how institutional designs can have unintended consequences, especially by rewiring social networks. Using archival data on the civil-service examinations in historical China, we argue that the enforcement of a regional quota system in 1427 reshaped group boundaries along native place, turned emotional affinities for one’s hometown into political stakes, and reinforced the influence of native place ties among political elites. Analyzing approximately 30,000 individual records, we confirm this argument by documenting a macro-level shift from a highly unequal to a more balanced provincial distribution of students who passed the examinations following the enforcement of the quota system. As native place became a primary basis for network homophily, elites deliberately cultivated these connections, seizing the opportunity as ad hoc examiners to provide preferential treatment based on shared place of origin. Our micro-level analysis of 12,752 passing students between 1400 and 1580 identifies this in-group favoritism, with examiners often ranking students from their own provinces higher. A mechanism of safeguarding political stakes underscores this baseline effect, which became more pronounced during the quota stage, especially under weaker state capacity, among examiners from disadvantaged provinces, and when examiners had greater vested interest in their hometown. These findings enrich theories of group boundaries and categorization, network homophily and formation, and the unintended consequences of institutional designs while also providing policy insights for affirmative action.

Transfer and Interruptions in Anticorruption Policies in Guatemala (2013–2019)

Guatemala ranks last in the region in terms of the penetration and perception of state corruption ranking 149th out of 180 countries. Therefore it has promoted anti-corruption initiatives such as the International Commission Against Impunity (CICIG 2007–2019). The CICIG was a unique public policy initiative worldwide with international community support and significant progress in reducing corruption. However what were the main failures encountered during the implementation process of the CICIG? This comparative individual case study analyzes two factors: sustainability and capacity building. The explanations for the CICIG’s disruptions are not understood exclusively as the absence of state capacity much less because of its design. My qualitative research delves into endogenous political contexts (client networks resilience). The research identifies some fissures in implementation and draws lessons that can be extrapolated to public policy in Latin America.

Fighting collective threats: socialist revolutions and the management of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract I investigate why some countries were more successful in containing the death toll than others during the COVID-19 pandemic. I focus on the role of socialism and on the existence of long-term regime-driven legacies that may have had an impact on the containment of COVID-related deaths. I claim that countries that went through successful socialist revolutions have specific features that equip them with better resources to cope with public challenges such as pandemics. Furthermore, these features remain even after the demise of the socialist regime. I find a positive effect of socialist revolutions over COVID-19 containment at the country level. I investigate three possible causal mechanisms for this relationship: authoritarianism, state capacity, and mass mobilization. Through mediation analysis, I find the socialist legacy seems to be channeled through higher levels of mobilization and also more authoritarian institutions.

Assessing the Diffusion of Military Power Capacity of Middle Powers: The Case of Turkey

ABSTRACT Great powers’ military power diffusion (MPD) is superior to Middle Powers (M.P.) in technology acquisition, military innovation, and state & financial capacity. However, M.P.s have started to enhance their MPD thanks to their growing impact on international politics. In this vein, this paper aims to offer an alternative explanation of MPD by introducing a novel theoretical framework, Military Power Diffusion Capacity (hereafter MPDC), to assess how M.P.s’ MPD influences the balance of power and warfare at both regional and international levels. In doing so, this article is structured into three sections. First, we investigate the existing theoretical frameworks on military power diffusion and the spread of military power by middle-ranking states. Second, we examine the historical evolution of Turkey’s defence industry. Third, we introduce our MPDC framework and test it to the Turkey’s case. Here, we propose a five-layered MPDC framework based on the following determining factors: 1) Sustainable Financial & State Capacity, 2) Geopolitical and strategic rivalries, 3) Domestic conditions, 4) Civil-Military bargaining levels, and 5) regional and global power status-driven aspirations. Then, we scrutinize Turkey’s MPDC since the 1990s within our five-layered framework to assess the implications of its MPD on the changing international security environment.

The Double-Edged Sword: How State Capacity Prolongs Autocratic Tenure but Hastens Democratization

This paper is concerned with state capacity and autocrat survival. We argue that state strength in autocracies increases leader tenure but reduces the stability of the regime itself; stronger autocracies run a higher risk of transitioning to democracy. This trade-off arises as a result of how state capacity affects the behavior of elite challengers. A stronger state reduces the likelihood of the ruler being ousted by force, inducing rival elites to switch tactics to peaceful support for democracy. An autocrat may prolong his tenure by investing in state capacity, but this brings on the downfall of the autocratic regime itself. We analyze the implications of our argument using a variety of historical sources providing information on 47 autocracies from 1800 to 2012. Our empirical findings, in part based on original data collection, are in line with the theoretical expectations: in strong states autocrats survive, but autocracies die.

Assessing State Resilience: Lynching and Its Ramifications on State Credit in the United States

ABSTRACTThe importance of state capacity and institutional quality has received significant attention within the academic literature. This is especially true as it relates to the protection of property rights and, ultimately, the role it plays in economic development. This study adds to this literature by considering how lynching activity across US states impacts sovereign credit. Given that lynching tends to be associated with weak public‐sector institutions, limited‐access social orders, and the weak protection of individual and property rights, we posit that as lynchings increase so too will bond yields. The analysis covers the period 1883–1920 and find support that state borrowing costs rose as lynching activity increased. The results are robust to a number of specifications, demographic groups, and regions. Implications are discussed.

Vulnerability and Critical Human Security in the Era of COVID-19 and Beyond in the UK and South Korea

The COVID-19 pandemic destabilised the political, social, and economic life of countries as it spread around the world. It posed multiple threats to individuals, societies, and across different domains of life, highlighting their intersectionality and uneven impacts. The paper focuses on the UK and South Korea, countries which took very different paths in framing and addressing the crisis. It draws on secondary data and an integrated critical human security and state capacity approach to compare how state responses, institutional capacity, and the mobilisation of policy instruments themselves construct constellations of insecurity which intersect with human security and vulnerability. It will demonstrate the structural constraints that have continued to shape vulnerability and the dynamics of human security and insecurity in turbulent times.

Transnational Climate Governance and State Capacity: A Multilevel Analysis of Green Bond Certification

Abstract Green bonds have become a key instrument for combating the climate crisis. To mitigate the risk of greenwashing, nongovernmental organizations and market participants have established transnational standards and certification schemes for the global governance of green bonds. This research aims to explain the variation in the adoption of certification across bonds and countries. By analyzing a data set of 4,682 green bonds from fifty-five countries between 2016 and 2020, the multilevel mixed-effects models indicate that an increase in participants in the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures within a country positively correlates with the likelihood of domestic green bond issuers adopting the certification from the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI). In countries with stronger state capacity to adopt climate laws and policies, green bond issuers are more likely to participate in the CBI certification. This study has implications for addressing the issue of greenwashing in the development of the green bond market.

Labor coercion, fiscal modernization, and state capacity: Evidence from colonial Indonesia

What explains the emergence of centralized fiscal institutions and information-intensive monetary taxation? This is the first study to estimate the effect of state capacity expansion on labor coercion as taxation, a practice known as corvée labor. To do so, I construct a new database covering eighteen Indonesian residencies over thirty-two years (1874–1905) during the period of Dutch colonial rule. I document the wide use of corvée labor and find that national-level policy centralized state finances by gradually replacing corvée with a head tax. At the same time, a residency-level panel data analysis shows that local state capacity expansion, primarily indigenous officials working as agents for the state, slowed the movement away from corvée. These estimates are supported by an IV strategy that uses effective distance to the capital as an instrument for local state capacity. The relationship between state capacity expansion and fiscal modernization therefore depends on what part of the state is expanding and whether interests across types of taxation differ within the state bureaucracy. Opposing interests of different state actors can be key in understanding fiscal modernization and public labor coercion.

Spatial prediction of armed conflicts from the perspective of political geography using bivariate frequency ratio method (FR) in East African States

Armed conflicts, as significant human phenomena, profoundly impact populations and reflect a state's capacity to fulfill its responsibilities. These conflicts arise from various causes, necessitating robust predictive models to understand their spatial distribution. This study employs the Bivariate Frequency Ratio (FR) method to spatially predict the occurrence of armed conflicts across the East African States, drawing on 42 political geography-related criteria. The development of the predictive model involved classifying the region into five conflict-prone categories influenced by critical political geography factors. Geospatial datasets, curated in a GIS environment, were sourced from approved online portals. The findings indicate that Burundi exhibits the highest vulnerability to armed conflict, followed closely by Rwanda, Uganda, and Somalia. Ethiopia and South Sudan show a moderate risk, while predictions for Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Mozambique suggest lower likelihoods of conflict. The model's accuracy was validated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, the model's applicability extends to other regions, offering a valuable tool for global conflict prediction.

Explaining Political Violence In South Asia: Theories And Concepts

Political violence in South Asia has escalated significantly since the region’s independence, primarily driven by the erosion of social cohesion. This paper investigates the socio-political and economic foundations that underlie violent political actions. By examining key movements across South Asia, including the Bengali liberation struggle, Kashmir and tribal conflicts in Northeast India, the MQM problem in Pakistan, the JVP and Tamil insurgency in Sri Lanka, the study identifies internal colonisation, state repression, and resource mobilisation as central catalysts of violence. The analysis highlights the role of relative deprivation, land disputes, and marginalisation as pivotal motivators for insurgencies. Additionally, state incapacity and external support further exacerbate and sustain violent movements. The paper concludes that the exclusion of marginalised groups from political power and economic opportunities, compounded by uneven development, continues to fuel cycles of violence in the region

Agrarian Elites, Wealth Inequality, and State Capacity: Evidence from Early Twentieth-Century Brazil

abstract: Traditional agrarian elites have often been portrayed as obstacles to the expansion of the state. Because landed actors are particularly exposed to taxation, inequality is expected to exacerbate their resistance to the development of fiscal capacity. This article argues that when propertied actors are politically dominant and obtain benefits from public spending that are proportional to their capital endowments, wealth inequality is associated with greater elite support for capacity investments. Using early twentieth-century Brazilian data, the author shows that where landed elites faced fewer political threats, higher levels of landholding concentration were associated with increased fiscal and administrative capacity. Tests of mechanisms corroborate the idea that this relationship results from elite demands for specific types of public spending. These findings contribute to the broader literature on state-building by providing new insights into the interaction between economic interests and political dominance in shaping subnational variation in the reach of the state.

Synchrotron-aided exploration of REE recovery from coal fly ashes within a Canadian context

Coal ashes in Canada have gained attention as a potential source for recovering rare earth elements (REE) from industrial waste. However, the complex chemical properties of coal ashes have made it difficult to determine the desirability, feasibility, and viability of REE recovery. To address this issue, this study systematically investigated distribution and structural information, speciation and chemical-binding state, and purity and extraction capacity of REE in multiple Canadian coal ashes (i.e., 2 fly ash and 1 bottom ash samples) through synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence mapping and adsorption spectrum analyses, as well as high-resolution REE sequential extraction quantitation. The results showed that Y, Ce, and La were present in the glass phase of the bottom ash, and the distributions of these REE elements correlated with Ca. The XANES analysis revealed that the dominant form of REE in coal fly ash (CFA) was REE oxides, indicating a transformation during combustion, while Y2O3 and Y2(CO3)3 were the predominant Y species identified in CFA. The study found that there is no correlation between P and REEs, suggesting that REEs in CFA may exist as discrete particles rather than being associated with amorphous glass. The extractability of REEs in bottom ash samples was lower than that in fly ash samples. Additionally, the benefits of REE recovery were estimated to be USD 99.82 to 215.21 per ton of fly ash through life cycle analysis, indicating that REE recovery from fly ashes is a promising path to supplement the REE supply chain in Canada.

Stochastic two-stage multi-objective unit commitment of distributed resource energy systems considering uncertainties and unit failures

Compared to centralized generation technology, distributed energy resource systems are susceptible to energy risks caused by boundary uncertainties and unit failures. This study introduces a stochastic two-stage multi-objective optimization method to address reliability-based unit commitment issues. In the day-ahead stage, operational state and reserve capacity are determined to minimize prescheduled operation costs based on forecasted parameters. In the real-time stage, a decision-dependent stochastic reliability method is proposed to simulate outage scenarios. Reserve resources within available units are allocated to mitigate forecasting errors and unit failures. Additionally, the grid interaction ratio and penalty cost are added to restrict the depth and frequency access to the grid. Four comparative cases analyze the effects of the proposed methodology. This method innovatively achieves the simulation of stochastic multi-unit outages and delete faulty units in the operation scheme. The optimal results show that the risks of electricity and cooling supply are underestimated, while the risks of heating are overestimated, compared to N-1 reliability. Furthermore, Pareto analysis of the multi-objective problem enhances independent operational capacity through utilization of reserve resources. Grid dispatch pressure is reduced since purchased power can be used as day-ahead planning. Thus, the methodology achieves collaborative optimization of reliability with a reduction of operation costs, offering effective guidance for engineering applications.

Reinforcing inequalities: A critical examination of international sanctions and bureaucratic decline in the Global South

This study critically examines the impact of international sanctions on bureaucratic quality in 74 developing countries from 1990 to 2020, highlighting how global governance mechanisms influence domestic institutional capacities. By focusing on the interaction between sanctions and economic crises, the research provides fresh empirical evidence on how external political pressures can inadvertently hinder development trajectories in the Global South. Utilizing a fixed-effect regression methodology with robust controls and addressing endogeneity concerns, the findings reveal that international sanctions—especially multilateral ones from the EU and UN—significantly deteriorate bureaucratic quality, particularly during economic crises. This deterioration undermines state capacity, exacerbates inequalities, and challenges the effectiveness and fairness of sanctions as tools of global governance. The study contributes to debates on global development by demonstrating how sanctions can reinforce global power asymmetries and produce divergent development outcomes. It urges a re-evaluation of sanctions within international policy, advocating for more equitable and context-sensitive approaches that prioritize the institutional integrity and development needs of vulnerable nations. The research underscores the importance of aligning global governance mechanisms with ethical principles and development goals, promoting dialogue and collaboration over punitive measures to achieve a more inclusive and sustainable global development paradigm.

The Importance of Un Peacekeeping Mission Orientation and Personnel for Environmental Protection

abstract: UN peacekeeping is increasingly linked to social and economic outcomes other than the provision of security or peace. Peacekeepers can also be associated with improvements in environmental protection. The research discussed here advances theoretical arguments on peacekeepers’ orientation and personnel composition to shed light on the underlying mechanisms of the relationship between peacekeepers and the environment. Through mandates or direct action on the ground, peacekeeping missions can have a green orientation that likely strengthens their commitment to environmental protection. Moreover, civilian personnel can help to develop the state capacity that is necessary to implement and enforce environmental regulations. The author analyzes peacekeeping deployments in post–Cold War Africa and uses fixed effects models and matching. The empirical analysis provides evidence that environmental mission orientation and more civilian personnel, than uniformed personnel, correlate with better local water quality. This research contributes to our knowledge on peacekeeping operations, and it adds to the literature on environmental politics and security studies.

Geographic inequality in funding by National Institutes of Health negatively impacts almost one-half of the states in the United States.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is the primary federal agency in the United States (US) that supports biomedical research, training, and clinical trials. NIH funding creates patents and jobs and thus helps the regional and national economy grow. Therefore, NIH funding would be expected to flow equitably to all 50 US states. However, there is a significant geographic disparity in the level of NIH funding received by various states. To that end, in 1993, authorized by Congress, NIH initiated a funding program called the Institutional Development Award (IDeA) to support states, called IDeA states, which received low levels of NIH funding. However, whether this approach has helped reduce the geographic disparity in NIH funding is unclear. In the current study, we analyzed data on various NIH funding mechanisms awarded to 23 IDeA states vs. 27 non-IDeA states, as identified by NIH. We compared these data to the population size, federal taxes paid, and the number of PhDs and Post-doctoral Fellows(PDFs) trained in IDeA vs. non-IDeA states. The non-IDeA states received 93.6% of the total NIH funding, whereas IDeA states received only 6.4%. On average, one Institutional Training Grant was received for every 24 PhDs trained in non-IDeA states, while IDeA states received one such grant for every 46 PhDs trained. The non-IDeA states comprised 84.3% of the US population, whereas IDeA states comprised 15.7%. Thus, on a per capita basis, non-IDeA states received $120 from NIH, whereas IDeA states received $45 per person. For every million dollars contributed by the non-IDeA states toward federal taxes, they received $7,903 in NIH funding, while the IDeA States received only $4,617. For FY 2022, the NIH funding created an economic activity of $90.6 Billion in non-IDeA states and only $6.3 billion in IDeA states. When total NIH funding to the states was analyzed for the years 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022, IDeA states received 4.7% of the total NIH funding in 1992, which increased to 7.2% in 2002 but dropped to 6.8% in 2012 and 6.5% in 2022. This demonstrated that IDeA states' share of NIH funding remained relatively unchanged for the past 20 years. Eliminating the geographic disparity in NIH funding is crucial for achieving equitable health outcomes across the US, and for the IDeA states to successfully train future generations of physicians and scientists, as well as grow the regional economy. Although the NIH IDeA programs have helped enhance the research capacity in IDeA states, the funding currently constitutes less than 1% of the total NIH budget. Thus, it is critical to increase NIH funding to IDeA states to improve health outcomes for all Americans.

Analyzing the impact of tax-based vs. rent-based funding on the effectiveness of environmental protection policies

The necessity of government intervention, particularly through public spending, to address market failure in providing public goods like environmental quality is widely recognized. However, the effectiveness of fiscal environmental policies in improving the environment remains unclear. This paper aims to explore the impact of funding sources for government expenditures on environmental quality. Using a Ramsey growth model, we investigate the consequences of two alternative funding sources for environmental protection: Taxes and natural resources rents. The model highlights that along the balanced growth path, financing environmental spending through taxes enhances environmental quality, while funding from natural resources rents leads to its deterioration. Furthermore, the model emphasizes the crucial role of socio-political institutions governing the economy in understanding the link between environmental protection expenditures and environmental outcomes. To test the model's propositions, we utilize a panel dataset of 76 countries spanning from 1995 to 2018. Our empirical findings corroborate the notion that the funding sources of environmental protection expenditures significantly impact environmental outcomes. Additionally, the results indicate that higher institutional quality, such as greater state capacity, enhances the effectiveness of the government's environmental spending in improving environmental quality. Our findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers seeking to design effective strategies for environmental preservation and sustainable growth.

The contingent role of state capacity on the impact of e-government on environmental sustainability in developing countries

E-government is a prominent approach in environmental sustainability as it brings various arrangements that allow for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. The article explores two main objectives. Firstly, the direct impact of e-government on ecological sustainability and secondly, whether e-government enhances environmental sustainability indirectly by improving state capacity. By understanding this nexus, we believe that states in LDCs will seek to explore the maximum potential benefits of ICTs in government operations to establish a more responsive, open, and people-oriented government. The paper utilizes a balanced macro-panel sample of 45 United Nations classified least developed countries from 2003 to 2022. To ensure the reliability of empirical findings, three econometric methods—system generalized methods of moments (GMM), instrumental variable GMM (IV-GMM), and bootstrap ordinary least squares (BOLS) are employed. The results of the entire sample model reveal several key findings. These findings are that e-government development has a direct and positive impact on environmental sustainability, secondly state capacity negatively influences ecological sustainability, and lastly e-government development indirectly affects environmental sustainability by enhancing state capacity. Additionally, intriguing sub-sample findings for least developed countries in Africa and Asia are observed, with notable lessons from the latter, where environmental performance is improving at the expense of a high volume of carbon emissions. However, these overall findings underscore the importance of considering how governments can address environmental sustainability requirements by managing e-government programs and enacting responsible ICT-enabled transformations.

Between Scylla and Charybdis: long-term drivers of EU structural vulnerability*

This work investigates the European Union’s structural vulnerability in an increasingly polarised global economy with ever more ‘weaponised’ interdependencies. Europe’s structural vulnerability is due to different interlinked and mutually reinforcing elements, which are the legacy of a self-defeating export-led growth model and a related economic policy set-up. We define structural vulnerability along four main dimensions – demand, supply, technology and critical raw materials – and discuss its main drivers. Highlighting the key role that Germany plays in shaping the EU growth model, we argue that the vicious circle between demand repression and supply deterioration has constrained innovation and growth, particularly in the southern periphery, making Europe more fragile in the face of external shocks. While acknowledging the recent change in the EU’s industrial policy approach, we argue that inadequate coordination at the EU level and the lack of common resources leave it to the fiscal capacity of individual member states to bridge the technological gap, with the real risk of further widening the core–periphery gap and increasing the structural fragility of the Union.