BackgroundCurrent staging for colorectal cancer utilizing the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM framework groups disease based on extent and provides important prognostic information. Ideally, increasing summary stage should reflect worse prognosis (hierarchical logic). We evaluated survival as a function of stage within the 8th edition AJCC staging system for colorectal cancer. MethodsPatients with non-metastatic primary colorectal cancer diagnosed 2010-2016 were identified from the National Cancer Database. Survival curves were used to determine whether staging was hierarchical for colorectal cancer. Multivariable modeling was used to identify relative contributions of variables (z-score) to overall survival, and hazard ratio (HR)-based groupings were constructed. ResultsAmong 270,584 colon and 53,846 rectal cancer patients, AJCC summary staging was non-hierarchical (e.g. HR IIC=2.92, HR IIIA=0.85-1.31). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that high T category (T4a, T4b) confers the greatest mortality risk (colon: T4a HR 2.76, T4b HR 3.04; rectum: T4a HR 3.29, T4b HR 3.73), while high T category as well as high N category (colon: T4a z=66.9, T4b z=64.6, N2b z=55.7; rectum: T4b z=31.1, N2b z=25.1) contributed substantially to the survival model. Arranging T and N groupings by HR and subsequent organizing them using HR-based groupings resulted in hierarchical organization of these groupings. ConclusionsCurrent AJCC summary stage groups for patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer are non-hierarchical. High T category has a greater impact on survival than N category for early N disease, while high N category is more important for early T disease. This results in paradoxically better observed survival with some stage III cancer subgroups compared to stage II subgroups. An organizational framework based on HR groupings is hierarchical and provides more accurate prognostic information.MicroAbstract: Current staging for colorectal cancer utilizing the TNM framework groups disease based on extent and provides important prognostic information. Ideally, increasing summary stage should reflect worse prognosis (i.e. hierarchical staging groups). However, upon analyzing data from the National Cancer Database, current AJCC 8th edition summary stage groups for patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer were found to be non-hierarchical. This results in paradoxically better observed survival with some stage III cancer subgroups compared to stage II subgroups. An organizational framework based on HR groupings is hierarchical and provides more accurate prognostic information.
Read full abstract