Stability Of Marine Ice Sheets Research Articles

Tracking the Cracking: A Holistic Analysis of Rapid Ice Shelf Fracture Using Seismology, Geodesy, and Satellite Imagery on the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf, West Antarctica.

Ice shelves regulate the stability of marine ice sheets. We track fractures on Pine Island Glacier, a quickly accelerating glacier in West Antarctica that contributes more to sea level rise than any other glacier. Using an on‐ice seismic network deployed from 2012 to 2014, we catalog icequakes that dominantly consist of flexural gravity waves. Icequakes occur near the rift tip and in two distinct areas of the shear margin, and TerraSAR‐X imagery shows significant fracture in each source region. Rift‐tip icequakes increase with ice speed, linking rift fracture to glaciological stresses and/or localized thinning. Using a simple flexural gravity wave model, we deconvolve wave propagation effects to estimate icequake source durations of 19.5–50.0 s and transient loads of 3.8–14.0 kPa corresponding to 4.3–15.9 m of crevasse growth per icequake. These long‐source durations suggest that water flow may limit the rate of crevasse opening.

Bed topography and marine ice-sheet stability

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of basal topography and strength on the grounding-line position, flux and stability of rapidly-sliding ice streams. It does so by supposing that the buoyancy of the ice stream is small, and of the same order as the longitudinal stress gradient. Making this scaling assumption makes the role of the basal gradient and accumulation rate explicit in the lowest order expression for the ice flux at the grounding line and also provides the transcendental equation for the grounding-line position. It also introduces into the stability condition terms in the basal curvature and accumulation-rate gradient. These expressions revert to well-established expressions in circumstances in which the thickness gradient is large at the grounding line, a result which is shown to be the consequence of the non-linearity of the flow. The behaviour of the grounding-line flux is illustrated for a range of bed topographies and strengths. We show that, when bed topography at a horizontal scale of several tens of ice thicknesses is present, the grounding-line flux and stability have more complex dependencies on bed gradient than that associated with the ‘marine ice-sheet instability hypothesis’, and that unstable grounding-line positions can occur on prograde beds as well as stable positions on retrograde beds.

Implementation and performance of adaptive mesh refinement in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM v4.14)

Abstract. Accurate projections of the evolution of ice sheets in a changing climate require a fine mesh/grid resolution in ice sheet models to correctly capture fundamental physical processes, such as the evolution of the grounding line, the region where grounded ice starts to float. The evolution of the grounding line indeed plays a major role in ice sheet dynamics, as it is a fundamental control on marine ice sheet stability. Numerical modeling of a grounding line requires significant computational resources since the accuracy of its position depends on grid or mesh resolution. A technique that improves accuracy with reduced computational cost is the adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) approach. We present here the implementation of the AMR technique in the finite element Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to simulate grounding line dynamics under two different benchmarks: MISMIP3d and MISMIP+. We test different refinement criteria: (a) distance around the grounding line, (b) a posteriori error estimator, the Zienkiewicz–Zhu (ZZ) error estimator, and (c) different combinations of (a) and (b). In both benchmarks, the ZZ error estimator presents high values around the grounding line. In the MISMIP+ setup, this estimator also presents high values in the grounded part of the ice sheet, following the complex shape of the bedrock geometry. The ZZ estimator helps guide the refinement procedure such that AMR performance is improved. Our results show that computational time with AMR depends on the required accuracy, but in all cases, it is significantly shorter than for uniformly refined meshes. We conclude that AMR without an associated error estimator should be avoided, especially for real glaciers that have a complex bed geometry.

Rapid early‐Holocene deglaciation in the Ross Sea, Antarctica

AbstractDeglaciation of the Ross Sea following the last ice age provides an important opportunity to examine the stability of marine ice sheets and their susceptibility to changing environmental conditions. Insufficient chronology for Ross Sea deglaciation has helped sustain (i) the theory that this region contributed significantly to Meltwater Pulse 1A (MWP‐1A) and (ii) the idea that Ross Sea grounding‐line retreat occurred in a “swinging gate” pattern hinged north of Roosevelt Island. We present deglaciation records from southern Transantarctic Mountain glaciers, which delivered ice to the central Ross Sea. Abrupt thinning of these glaciers 9–8 kyr B.P. coincided with deglaciation of the Scott Coast, ∼800 km to the north, and ended with the Ross Sea grounding line near Shackleton Glacier. This deglaciation removed grounded ice from most of the central and western Ross Sea in less than 2 kyr. The Ross Sea Sector neither contributed nor responded significantly to MWP‐1A.

Ice-shelf damming in the glacial Arctic Ocean: dynamical regimes of a basin-covering kilometre-thick ice shelf

Abstract. Recent geological and geophysical data suggest that a 1 km thick ice shelf extended over the glacial Arctic Ocean during Marine Isotope Stage 6, about 140 000 years ago. Here, we theoretically analyse the development and equilibrium features of such an ice shelf, using scaling analyses and a one-dimensional ice-sheet–ice-shelf model. We find that the dynamically most consistent scenario is an ice shelf with a nearly uniform thickness that covers the entire Arctic Ocean. Further, the ice shelf has two regions with distinctly different dynamics: a vast interior region covering the central Arctic Ocean and an exit region towards the Fram Strait. In the interior region, which is effectively dammed by the Fram Strait constriction, there are strong back stresses and the mean ice-shelf thickness is controlled primarily by the horizontally integrated mass balance. A narrow transition zone is found near the continental grounding line, in which the ice-shelf thickness decreases offshore and approaches the mean basin thickness. If the surface accumulation and mass flow from the continental ice masses are sufficiently large, the ice-shelf thickness grows to the point where the ice shelf grounds on the Lomonosov Ridge. As this occurs, the back stress increases in the Amerasian Basin and the ice-shelf thickness becomes larger there than in the Eurasian Basin towards the Fram Strait. Using a one-dimensional ice-dynamic model, the stability of equilibrium ice-shelf configurations without and with grounding on the Lomonosov Ridge are examined. We find that the grounded ice-shelf configuration should be stable if the two Lomonosov Ridge grounding lines are located on the opposites sides of the ridge crest, implying that the downstream grounding line is located on a downward sloping bed. This result shares similarities with the classical result on marine ice-sheet stability of Weertman, but due to interactions between the Amerasian and Eurasian ice-shelf segments the mass flux at the downstream grounding line decreases rather than increases with ice thickness.

Dynamic influence of pinning points on marine ice-sheet stability: a numerical study in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Abstract. The East Antarctic ice sheet is likely more stable than its West Antarctic counterpart because its bed is largely lying above sea level. However, the ice sheet in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, contains marine sectors that are in contact with the ocean through overdeepened marine basins interspersed by grounded ice promontories and ice rises, pinning and stabilising the ice shelves. In this paper, we use the ice-sheet model BISICLES to investigate the effect of sub-ice-shelf melting, using a series of scenarios compliant with current values, on the ice-dynamic stability of the outlet glaciers between the Lazarev and Roi Baudouin ice shelves over the next millennium. Overall, the sub-ice-shelf melting substantially impacts the sea-level contribution. Locally, we predict a short-term rapid grounding-line retreat of the overdeepened outlet glacier Hansenbreen, which further induces the transition of the bordering ice promontories into ice rises. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrated that the onset of the marine ice-sheet retreat and subsequent promontory transition into ice rise is controlled by small pinning points, mostly uncharted in pan-Antarctic datasets. Pinning points have a twofold impact on marine ice sheets. They decrease the ice discharge by buttressing effect, and they play a crucial role in initialising marine ice sheets through data assimilation, leading to errors in ice-shelf rheology when omitted. Our results show that unpinning increases the sea-level rise by 10 %, while omitting the same pinning point in data assimilation decreases it by 10 %, but the more striking effect is in the promontory transition time, advanced by two centuries for unpinning and delayed by almost half a millennium when the pinning point is missing in data assimilation. Pinning points exert a subtle influence on ice dynamics at the kilometre scale, which calls for a better knowledge of the Antarctic margins.

Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine ice sheets

Abstract. Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine-type ice sheets are investigated numerically. Buttressing effects are analysed for a situation where a stable grounding line is located on a bed sloping upwards in the direction of flow. Such grounding-line positions are known to be unconditionally unstable in the absence of transverse flow variations. It is shown that ice-shelf buttressing can restore stability under these conditions. Ice flux at the grounding line is, in general, not a monotonically increasing function of ice thickness. This, possibly at first somewhat counterintuitive result, is found to be fully consistent with recent theoretical work. Grounding lines on retrograde slopes are conditionally stable, and the stability regime is a non-trivial function of bed and ice-shelf geometry. The stability of grounding lines cannot be assessed from considerations of local bed slope only.

Grounding line transient response in marine ice sheet models

Abstract. Marine ice-sheet stability is mostly controlled by the dynamics of the grounding line, i.e. the junction between the grounded ice sheet and the floating ice shelf. Grounding line migration has been investigated within the framework of MISMIP (Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project), which mainly aimed at investigating steady state solutions. Here we focus on transient behaviour, executing short-term simulations (200 yr) of a steady ice sheet perturbed by the release of the buttressing restraint exerted by the ice shelf on the grounded ice upstream. The transient grounding line behaviour of four different flowline ice-sheet models has been compared. The models differ in the physics implemented (full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation), the numerical approach, as well as the grounding line treatment. Their overall response to the loss of buttressing is found to be broadly consistent in terms of grounding line position, rate of surface elevation change and surface velocity. However, still small differences appear for these latter variables, and they can lead to large discrepancies (> 100%) observed in terms of ice sheet contribution to sea level when cumulated over time. Despite the recent important improvements of marine ice-sheet models in their ability to compute steady state configurations, our results question the capacity of these models to compute short-term reliable sea-level rise projections.

The stability of grounding lines on retrograde slopes

Abstract. The stability of marine ice sheets grounded on beds that slope upwards in the overall direction of flow is investigated numerically in two horizontal dimensions. We give examples of stable grounding lines on such retrograde slopes illustrating that marine ice sheets are not unconditionally unstable in two horizontal dimensions. Retrograde bed slopes at the grounding lines of marine ice sheets, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), do not per se imply an instability, nor do they imply that these regions are close to a threshold of instability. We therefore question those estimates of the potential near-future contribution of WAIS to global sea level change based solely on the notion that WAIS, resting on a retrograde slope, must be inherently unstable.

Marine ice sheet stability

AbstractWe examine the stability of two-dimensional marine ice sheets in steady state. The dynamics of marine ice sheets is described by a viscous thin-film model with two Stefan-type boundary conditions at the moving boundary or ‘grounding line’ that marks the transition from grounded to floating ice. One of these boundary conditions constrains ice thickness to be at a local critical value for flotation, which depends on depth to bedrock at the grounding line. The other condition sets ice flux as a function of ice thickness at the grounding line. Depending on the shape of the bedrock, multiple equilibria may be possible. Using a linear stability analysis, we confirm a long-standing heuristic argument that asserts that the stability of these equilibria is determined by a simple mass balance consideration. If an advance in the grounding line away from its steady-state position leads to a net mass gain, the steady state is unstable, and stable otherwise. This also confirms that grounding lines can only be stable in positions where bedrock slopes downwards sufficiently steeply.

Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet–sea level model

We investigate the stability of marine ice sheets by coupling a gravitationally self‐consistent sea level model valid for a self‐gravitating, viscoelastically deforming Earth to a 1‐D marine ice sheet‐shelf model. The evolution of the coupled model is explored for a suite of simulations in which we vary the bed slope and the forcing that initiates retreat. We find that the sea level fall at the grounding line associated with a retreating ice sheet acts to slow the retreat; in simulations with shallow reversed bed slopes and/or small external forcing, the drop in sea level can be sufficient to halt the retreat. The rate of sea level change at the grounding line has an elastic component due to ongoing changes in ice sheet geometry, and a viscous component due to past ice and ocean load changes. When the ice sheet model is forced from steady state, on short timescales (<∼500 years), viscous effects may be ignored and grounding‐line migration at a given time will depend on the local bedrock topography and on contemporaneous sea level changes driven by ongoing ice sheet mass flux. On longer timescales, an accurate assessment of the present stability of a marine ice sheet requires knowledge of its past evolution.

Marine ice sheet dynamics: Hysteresis and neutral equilibrium

The stability of marine ice sheets and outlet glaciers is mostly controlled by the dynamics of their grounding line, i.e., where the bottom contact of the ice changes from bedrock or till to ocean water. The last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has clearly underlined the poor ability of models to capture the dynamics of outlet glaciers. Here we present computations of grounding line dynamics on the basis of numerical solutions of the full Stokes equations for ice velocity, coupled with the evolution of the air ice– and sea ice–free interfaces. The grounding line position is determined by solving the contact problem between the ice and a rigid bedrock using the finite element code Elmer. Results of the simulations show that marine ice sheets are unstable on upsloping beds and undergo hysteresis under perturbation of ice viscosity, confirming conclusions from boundary layer theory. The present approach also indicates that a 2‐D unconfined marine ice sheet sliding over a downsloping bedrock does not exhibit neutral equilibrium. It is shown that mesh resolution around the grounding line is a crucial issue. A very fine grid size (<100 m spacing) is needed in order to achieve consistent results.

Stability of ice rises and uncoupled marine ice sheets

An analysis of the linear stability of marine ice sheets uncoupled from associated ice shelves is presented. The principal feature is a zero eigenvalue associated with infinitesimal shifts along the line of neutral equilibrium in phase space, termed the “equilibrium manifold”. A finite-difference scheme is constructed which respects this stability properly.The zero eigenvalue appears to allow modelling errors to accumulate rather than dissipate as occurs in land-based ice sheets. The practical significance of this is that even rather fine spatial grids may allow substantial numerical error to accumulate.

Stability of ice rises and uncoupled marine ice sheets

An analysis of the linear stability of marine ice sheets uncoupled from associated ice shelves is presented. The principal feature is a zero eigenvalue associated with infinitesimal shifts along the line of neutral equilibrium in phase space, termed the “equilibrium manifold”. A finite-difference scheme is constructed which respects this stability properly. The zero eigenvalue appears to allow modelling errors to accumulate rather than dissipate as occurs in land-based ice sheets. The practical significance of this is that even rather fine spatial grids may allow substantial numerical error to accumulate.