Eutrophication and the associated algal blooms is a pervasive problem affecting global health, aquaculture, agriculture, water-related industries, and freshwater ecosystems. Spring algal blooms (SABs), which are less common than summer blooms, occur during a time that is thought to be less advantageous due to mild winds, little precipitation, and a relatively small amount of NPS pollutants being transported. Thus, It is pertinent to understand further the factors influencing SABs directly and/or indirectly for improved management. Consequently, Partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was employed to measure the direct and indirect effects of nutrients, lake hydrodynamics (Lake HD), meteorological elements (ME), stratification, Lake Bio-Optics, and Bottom Sediment-Water interaction (BSWI) in Gaoyang Lake of the Three Gorges Reservoir which is characterized by SABs. Based on our findings, total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) together slightly outperformed TP alone in explaining variations in chlorophyll a (chl-a), but the difference was not statistically significant. Thus the parsimonous PLS-SEM model with TP was chosen, and it explained 66.8%, 54.0%, 21.4%, and 59.7% variation in stratification, Lake Bio-Optics, nutrients, and chl-a, respectively. Surprisingly, ME and Lake Bio-Optics had a negative total effect on chl-a during the study. The magnitude of factors influencing SAB occurrence was of the order Lake Hydrodynamics > nutrients > Bottom Sediments-Water Interphase > Lake Bio-Optics > Meteorological Elements > Stratification. This study successfully decoupled and quantified several latent variables’ complex simultaneous causal effects on chl-a.
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