Spread Of Bluetongue Virus Research Articles

Determining the effects of wind-aided midge movement on the outbreak and coexistence of multiple bluetongue virus serotypes in patchy environments

Bluetongue virus (BTV) has 27 serotypes with some of them coexisting in different environments which make its control difficult. Wind-aided midge movement is a known mechanism in the spread of BTV. However, its effects on the dynamics of multiple BTV serotypes are not clear. Ordinary differential equation (ODE) and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) models for two BTV serotypes in an environment divided into two patches depending on the risk of infection are formulated and analysed. By approximating the CTMC model with a multitype branching process, an estimate for the probability of a major outbreak of two BTV serotypes is obtained. It is shown that without movement a major outbreak occurs in the high-risk patch, but with cattle or midge movement it occurs in both patches. When a major outbreak occurs, numerical simulations of the ODE model illustrate possible coexistence in both patches if the patches are connected by midge or cattle movement. Sensitivity analysis, based on the Latin hypercube sampling method, identified midge mortality and biting rates as being the most important in determining the magnitude of the probability of a major outbreak. These results indicate the significance of wind-aided midge movement on the outbreak and coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes in patchy environments.

Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes a disease that is endemic in Spain and its two major biological vector species, C. imicola and the Obsoletus complex species, differ greatly in their ecology and distribution. Understanding the seasonality of BTV transmission in risk areas is key to improving surveillance and control programs, as well as to better understand the pathogen transmission networks between wildlife and livestock. Here, monthly risk transmission maps were generated using risk categories based on well-known BTV R0 equations and predicted abundances of the two most relevant vectors in Spain. Previously, Culicoides spp. predicted abundances in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands were obtained using remote sensing data and random forest machine learning algorithm. Risk transmission maps were externally assessed with the estimated date of infection of BTV-1 and BTV-4 historical outbreaks. Our results highlight the differences in risk transmission during April-October, June-August being the period with higher R0 values. Likewise, a natural barrier has been identified between northern and central-southern areas at risk that may hamper BTV spread between them. Our results can be relevant to implement risk-based interventions for the prevention, control and surveillance of BTV and other diseases shared between livestock and wildlife host populations.

Co-Circulation of Multiple Serotypes of Bluetongue Virus in Zambia.

Bluetongue (BT) is an arthropod-borne viral disease of ruminants with serious trade and socio-economic implications. Although the disease has been reported in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, there is currently no information on circulating serotypes and disease distribution in Zambia. Following surveillance for BT in domestic and wild ruminants in Zambia, BT virus (BTV) nucleic acid and antibodies were detected in eight of the 10 provinces of the country. About 40% (87/215) of pooled blood samples from cattle and goats were positive for BTV nucleic acid, while one hartebeest pool (1/43) was positive among wildlife samples. Sequence analysis of segment 2 revealed presence of serotypes 3, 5, 7, 12 and 15, with five nucleotypes (B, E, F, G and J) being identified. Segment 10 phylogeny showed Zambian BTV sequences clustering with Western topotype strains from South Africa, intimating likely transboundary spread of BTV in Southern Africa. Interestingly, two Zambian viruses and one isolate from Israel formed a novel clade, which we designated as Western topotype 4. The high seroprevalence (96.2%) in cattle from Lusaka and Central provinces and co-circulation of multiple serotypes showed that BT is widespread, underscoring the need for prevention and control strategies.

Molecular identification of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) species in Algeria

Bluetongue is a serious vector-borne viral disease that infects wild and domestic ruminants. The causative virus is transmitted by midges of the genus Culicoides, which consists of at least 1350 species worldwide. Since 1998, bluetongue disease has spread to Europe and northern Africa, including Algeria. To better understand the distribution of Culicoides species in Algeria, adult midges were collected from 17 different regions in Algeria from 2009 to 2015. At first, 492 specimens were grouped into 52 batches by wing patterns and geographic area of Algeria. Analysis of 60 nucleotide sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) gene showed that the presence of 14 species including five unknown species, which were belonged to seven distinct subgenera. At least five species (C. imicola, C. obsoletus, C. puncticollis, C. kingi, and C. newsteadi) were discussed as potential vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV). The present study provides important insights into the genetic diversity of Culicoides and the potential spread of BTV in Algeria.

Bayesian Phylodynamic Analyses of Segment 10 Reveals Global Origin, Spread, and Host Transmission of Bluetongue Virus

Event Abstract Back to Event Bayesian Phylodynamic Analyses of Segment 10 Reveals Global Origin, Spread, and Host Transmission of Bluetongue Virus Moh A. Alkhamis1*, Cecilia Aguilar2, Andres M. Perez3 and Jose M. Sanchez-Vizcaino2 1 Kuwait University, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait 2 VISAVET Health Surveillance Centre (UCM), Spain 3 Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, United States Bluetongue virus (BTV) is a midge-borne disease that causes notable morbidity and mortality in non-African ungulates, especially sheep [1]. BTV epidemics are economically constraining and have caused global losses of up to US$ 3 billion [2]. Understanding the global evolutionary epidemiology of BTV is critical in designing intervention programs. Bayesian phylodynamic methods can uniquely integrate spatiotemporal and host characteristics metadata into the phylogeny using one statistical framework. Very few studies have attempted to reconstruct the evolutionary history of BTV on either local or regional scales [3-5]. However, and to the authors’ knowledge, no attempt has yet been made to identify BTV geographic origins and transmission dynamics on a global scale using discrete phylodynamic models. The objective of the study was to explore evolutionary characteristics, spatiotemporal origins, and host transmission dynamics of BTV on a global scale using all publicly available segment 10 sequences collected between 1937 and 2016 (N = 560). We used Bayesian discrete phylogeographic models to reconstruct the spatiotemporal origin and dispersal of BTV between 15 affected countries. Similarly, we used discrete-trait phylodynamic models to identify the ancestral host species for BTV and quantify the transmission routes of the virus between sheep, goat, cattle, and midges. The inferred posterior estimate of the mean nucleotide substitution rate was equal to 3.11 × 10-4 /site/year with a 95% highest posterior density (HPD) ranging from 2.05 × 10-4 to 4.66 × 10-4. The approximate divergence time of the virus was inferred to be over 1000 years ago in Asia and Europe. However, BTVs isolated in Australia emerged in the 1700s and were inferred to be the youngest among viruses isolated from other continents. The relative genetic diversity through time for BTV have substantially increased during the 1930s, followed by a drastic decline in the 1970s. The relative genetic of the BTV through time has substantially increased during the 1930s, followed by a drastic decline in the 1970s. However, a slight sign of an increase in the genetic diversity is noted for BTVs isolated in 2016. The root state posterior probabilities inferred from our phylogeographic analyses suggested China as the ancestral location for BTV (P = 0.11), where novel serotypes are continuously emerging [6-8]. The phylogeographic maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree indicated the transcontinental spread of BTV was established in the 1500s between China, South Africa, and the USA. However, most statistically significant dispersal routes (Bayes factors > 2000) of the virus were inferred between European countries where the majority of BTV outbreaks are observed [9]. Furthermore, the highest intensity of viral jumps was inferred for France and Italy. Results suggested that goats are the ancestral host of BTV (P = 0.34) over 1000 years ago, whereas the majority of later transmission events originated from sheep. However, substantially significant transmission routes (BF > 10000) were inferred from and to cattle, confirming the notion that cattle are important reservoirs for BTV spread and maintenance [10]. Finally, the highest mean counts of viral jumps were inferred between sheep and midges, highlighting the intensity of the transmission cycle between the two hosts [9]. Findings from the present study shed novel insights into the global spatiotemporal evolutionary history of BTV and highlighted important aspects of the transmission dynamics of the virus between host species using a well-established and rigorous analytical framework. While the results may be sensitive to the inherent limitations of imperfect BTV molecular surveillance, our analysis elucidates important epidemiological aspects of BTV origin and spread on global scales. Subsequently, the mobilization of further resources toward molecular surveillance of BTV is justified, which is key to guiding disease control and prevention worldwide.

Environmental heterogeneity and variations in the velocity of bluetongue virus spread in six European epidemics

Several epidemics caused by different bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes occurred in European ruminants since the early 2000. Studies on the spatial distribution of these vector-borne infections and the main vector species highlighted contrasted eco-climatic regions characterized by different dominant vector species. However, little work was done regarding the factors associated with the velocity of these epidemics. In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare the velocity of BTV epidemic that have affected different European countries under contrasted eco-climatic conditions and to relate these estimates to spatial factors such as temperature and host density. We used the thin plate spline regression interpolation method in combination with trend surface analysis to quantify the local velocity of different epidemics that have affected France (BTV-8 2007–2008, BTV-1 2008–2009), Italy (BTV-1 2014), Andalusia in Spain (BTV-1 2007) and the Balkans (BTV-4 2014). We found significant differences in the local velocity of BTV spread according to the country and epidemics, ranging from 7.9km/week (BTV-1 2014 Italy) to 24.4km/week (BTV-1 2008 France). We quantify and discuss the effect of temperature and local host density on this velocity.

Bluetongue virus spread in Europe is a consequence of climatic, landscape and vertebrate host factors as revealed by phylogeographic inference

Spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of infectious diseases are commonly driven by environmental and ecological factors. This is particularly true for vector-borne diseases because vector populations can be strongly affected by host distribution as well as by climatic and landscape variables. Here, we aim to identify environmental drivers for bluetongue virus (BTV), the causative agent of a major vector-borne disease of ruminants that has emerged multiple times in Europe in recent decades. In order to determine the importance of climatic, landscape and host-related factors affecting BTV diffusion across Europe, we fitted different phylogeographic models to a dataset of 113 time-stamped and geo-referenced BTV genomes, representing multiple strains and serotypes. Diffusion models using continuous space revealed that terrestrial habitat below 300 m altitude, wind direction and higher livestock densities were associated with faster BTV movement. Results of discrete phylogeographic analysis involving generalized linear models broadly supported these findings, but varied considerably with the level of spatial partitioning. Contrary to common perception, we found no evidence for average temperature having a positive effect on BTV diffusion, though both methodological and biological reasons could be responsible for this result. Our study provides important insights into the drivers of BTV transmission at the landscape scale that could inform predictive models of viral spread and have implications for designing control strategies.

Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1) Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia) in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

Andalusia (Southern Spain) is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV) into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt), defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0). Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The Rt value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8), and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci), which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of Rt by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day) in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C) there was a positive correlation between temperature and Rt values, although the relationship was not linear, probably as a result of the complex relationship between temperature and the different parameters affecting BTV transmission. Rt values for BTV-1 in Andalusia fell below the threshold of 1 when temperatures dropped below 21°C, a much higher threshold than that reported in other BTV outbreaks, such as the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe. This divergence may be explained by differences in the adaptation to temperature of the main vectors of the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia (Culicoides imicola) compared those of the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe (Culicoides obsoletus). Importantly, we found that BTV transmission (Rt value) increased significantly in areas with higher densities of sheep. Our analysis also established that control of BTV-1 in Andalusia was complicated by the simultaneous establishment of several distant foci at the start of the epidemic, which may have been caused by several independent introductions of infected vectors from the North of Africa. We discuss the implications of these findings for BTV surveillance and control in this region of Europe.

An experimental subunit vaccine based on Bluetongue virus 4 VP2 protein fused to an antigen-presenting cells single chain antibody elicits cellular and humoral immune responses in cattle, guinea pigs and IFNAR(−/−) mice

Bluetongue virus (BTV), the causative agent of bluetongue disease (BT) in domestic and wild ruminants, is worldwide distributed. A total of 27 serotypes have been described so far, and several outbreaks have been reported. Vaccination is critical for controlling the spread of BTV. In the last years, subunit vaccines, viral vector vaccines and reverse genetic-based vaccines have emerged as new alternatives to conventional ones. In this study, we developed an experimental subunit vaccine against BTV4, with the benefit of targeting the recombinant protein to antigen-presenting cells. The VP2 protein from an Argentine BTV4 isolate was expressed alone or fused to the antigen presenting cell homing (APCH) molecule, in the baculovirus insect cell expression system. The immunogenicity of both proteins was evaluated in guinea pigs and cattle. Titers of specific neutralizing antibodies in guinea pigs and cattle immunized with VP2 or APCH-VP2 were high and similar to those induced by a conventional inactivated vaccine. The immunogenicity of recombinant proteins was further studied in the IFNAR(−/−) mouse model where the fusion of VP2 to APCH enhanced the cellular immune response and the neutralizing activity induced by VP2.

Environmental drivers of Culicoides phenology: how important is species-specific variation when determining disease policy?

Since 2006, arboviruses transmitted by Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) have caused significant disruption to ruminant production in northern Europe. The most serious incursions involved strains of bluetongue virus (BTV), which cause bluetongue (BT) disease. To control spread of BTV, movement of susceptible livestock is restricted with economic and animal welfare impacts. The timing of BTV transmission in temperate regions is partly determined by the seasonal presence of adult Culicoides females. Legislative measures therefore allow for the relaxation of ruminant movement restrictions during winter, when nightly light-suction trap catches of Culicoides fall below a threshold (the ‘seasonally vector free period’: SVFP). We analysed five years of time-series surveillance data from light-suction trapping in the UK to investigate whether significant inter-specific and yearly variation in adult phenology exists, and whether the SVFP is predictable from environmental factors. Because female vector Culicoides are not easily morphologically separated, inter-specific comparisons in phenology were drawn from male populations. We demonstrate significant inter-specific differences in Culicoides adult phenology with the season of Culicoides scoticus approximately eight weeks shorter than Culicoides obsoletus. Species-specific differences in the length of the SVFP were related to host density and local variation in landscape habitat. When the Avaritia Culicoides females were modelled as a group (as utilised in the SFVP), we were unable to detect links between environmental drivers and phenological metrics. We conclude that the current treatment of Avaritia Culicoides as a single group inhibits understanding of environmentally-driven spatial variation in species phenology and hinders the development of models for predicting the SVFP from environmental factors. Culicoides surveillance methods should be adapted to focus on concentrated assessments of species-specific abundance during the start and end of seasonal activity in temperate regions to facilitate refinement of ruminant movement restrictions thereby reducing the impact of Culicoides-borne arboviruses.

A spatial simulation model for the dispersal of the bluetongue vector Culicoides brevitarsis in Australia.

BackgroundThe spread of Bluetongue virus (BTV) among ruminants is caused by movement of infected host animals or by movement of infected Culicoides midges, the vector of BTV. Biologically plausible models of Culicoides dispersal are necessary for predicting the spread of BTV and are important for planning control and eradication strategies.MethodsA spatially-explicit simulation model which captures the two underlying population mechanisms, population dynamics and movement, was developed using extensive data from a trapping program for C. brevitarsis on the east coast of Australia. A realistic midge flight sub-model was developed and the annual incursion and population establishment of C. brevitarsis was simulated. Data from the literature was used to parameterise the model.ResultsThe model was shown to reproduce the spread of C. brevitarsis southwards along the east Australian coastline in spring, from an endemic population to the north. Such incursions were shown to be reliant on wind-dispersal; Culicoides midge active flight on its own was not capable of achieving known rates of southern spread, nor was re-emergence of southern populations due to overwintering larvae. Data from midge trapping programmes were used to qualitatively validate the resulting simulation model.ConclusionsThe model described in this paper is intended to form the vector component of an extended model that will also include BTV transmission. A model of midge movement and population dynamics has been developed in sufficient detail such that the extended model may be used to evaluate the timing and extent of BTV outbreaks. This extended model could then be used as a platform for addressing the effectiveness of spatially targeted vaccination strategies or animal movement bans as BTV spread mitigation measures, or the impact of climate change on the risk and extent of outbreaks. These questions involving incursive Culicoides spread cannot be simply addressed with non-spatial models.

Bluetongue virus in South America, Central America and the Caribbean

Bluetongue virus (BTV) has been detected in many parts of the world but the data available from each continent are substantially different. Some regions are not covered by proper surveillance programs and thus, the real situation concerning the incidence of BTV in those regions is unknown. This is the case of Central America, South America and the Caribbean, where few outdated data about the presence and spread of BTV have been reported. In the present review, we update the BTV situation in those regions by compiling the serologic data available and analyzing the genetic information reported by the different research groups which are studying the disease in the region.

Assessing the mandatory bovine abortion notification system in France using unilist capture-recapture approach.

The mandatory bovine abortion notification system in France aims to detect as soon as possible any resurgence of bovine brucellosis. However, under-reporting seems to be a major limitation of this system. We used a unilist capture-recapture approach to assess the sensitivity, i.e. the proportion of farmers who reported at least one abortion among those who detected such events, and representativeness of the system during 2006–2011. We implemented a zero-inflated Poisson model to estimate the proportion of farmers who detected at least one abortion, and among them, the proportion of farmers not reporting. We also applied a hurdle model to evaluate the effect of factors influencing the notification process. We found that the overall surveillance sensitivity was about 34%, and was higher in beef than dairy cattle farms. The observed increase in the proportion of notifying farmers from 2007 to 2009 resulted from an increase in the surveillance sensitivity in 2007/2008 and an increase in the proportion of farmers who detected at least one abortion in 2008/2009. These patterns suggest a raise in farmers’ awareness in 2007/2008 when the Bluetongue Virus (BTV) was detected in France, followed by an increase in the number of abortions in 2008/2009 as BTV spread across the country. Our study indicated a lack of sensitivity of the mandatory bovine abortion notification system, raising concerns about the ability to detect brucellosis outbreaks early. With the increasing need to survey the zoonotic Rift Valley Fever and Q fever diseases that may also cause bovine abortions, our approach is of primary interest for animal health stakeholders to develop information programs to increase abortion notifications. Our framework combining hurdle and ZIP models may also be applied to estimate the completeness of other clinical surveillance systems.

Seasonal and spatial heterogeneities in host and vector abundances impact the spatiotemporal spread of bluetongue.

Bluetongue (BT) can cause severe livestock losses and large direct and indirect costs for farmers. To propose targeted control strategies as alternative to massive vaccination, there is a need to better understand how BT virus spread in space and time according to local characteristics of host and vector populations. Our objective was to assess, using a modelling approach, how spatiotemporal heterogeneities in abundance and distribution of hosts and vectors impact the occurrence and amplitude of local and regional BT epidemics. We built a reaction–diffusion model accounting for the seasonality in vector abundance and the active dispersal of vectors. Because of the scale chosen, and movement restrictions imposed during epidemics, host movements and wind-induced passive vector movements were neglected. Four levels of complexity were addressed using a theoretical approach, from a homogeneous to a heterogeneous environment in abundance and distribution of hosts and vectors. These scenarios were illustrated using data on abundance and distribution of hosts and vectors in a real geographical area. We have shown that local epidemics can occur earlier and be larger in scale far from the primary case rather than close to it. Moreover, spatial heterogeneities in hosts and vectors delay the epidemic peak and decrease the infection prevalence. The results obtained on a real area confirmed those obtained on a theoretical domain. Although developed to represent BTV spatiotemporal spread, our model can be used to study other vector-borne diseases of animals with a local to regional spread by vector diffusion.

Scaling from challenge experiments to the field: Quantifying the impact of vaccination on the transmission of bluetongue virus serotype 8

Bluetongue (BT) is an economically important disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) and transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. The most practical and effective way to protect susceptible animals against BTV is by vaccination. Data from challenge studies in calves and sheep conducted by Intervet International b.v., in particular, presence of viral RNA in the blood of challenged animals, were used to estimate vaccine efficacy. The results of the challenge studies for calves indicated that vaccination is likely to reduce the basic reproduction number (R0) for BTV in cattle to below one (i.e. prevent major outbreaks within a holding) and that this reduction is robust to uncertainty in the model parameters. Sensitivity analysis showed that the whether or not vaccination is predicted to reduce R0 to below one depended on the following assumptions: (i) whether “doubtful” results from the challenge studies are treated as negative or positive; (ii) whether or not the probability of transmission from host to vector is reduced by vaccination; and (iii) whether the extrinsic incubation period follows a realistic gamma distribution or the more commonly used exponential distribution. For sheep, all but one of the vaccinated animals were protected and, consequently, vaccination will consistently reduce R0 in sheep to below one. Using a stochastic spatial model for the spread of BTV in Great Britain (GB), vaccination was predicted to reduce both the incidence of disease and spatial spread in simulated BTV outbreaks in GB, in both reactive vaccination strategies and when an incursion occurred into a previously vaccinated population.

Influence of season and meteorological parameters on flight activity of Culicoides biting midges

Summary1. Culicoides biting midges are vectors of internationally important arboviruses including bluetongue virus (BTV). The ecological constraints imposed by the small body size of these insects strongly influence the epidemiology of the diseases they can carry. Bluetongue virus recently emerged in northern Europe, and atmospheric dispersion models have subsequently been employed to simulate vector movement (and hence likely spread of BTV). The data underlying such models, however, have hitherto either been obtained from small‐scale studies or from outside the north‐western Palaearctic.2. The effects of seasonality and local meteorological conditions upon the daily presence and abundance of Culicoides vectors were examined using 2760 samples collected across a network of 12 different habitat types in England during 2008. Over 50 000 individuals were estimated to be in the samples with males constituting 62% of the total collection, allowing straightforward comparison between potential vector species in terms of their activity rates and seasonality. Culicoides abundance was linked to livestock density and land use. Farm‐associated Culicoides species were recorded at all sites including species thought to be restricted to this ecosystem by larval habitat, suggesting a greater potential for dispersal over land than previously thought.3. Synthesis and applications. The model developed has already been applied in a functional dispersion model to predict disease risk from wind‐borne infected Culicoides incursion into the UK and elsewhere. The study has expounded the long‐distance dispersal potential of Culicoides, essential for future prediction of the incursion and spread of Culicoides‐borne pathogens. It has additionally contributed to the understanding of the ecology of highly dispersive insect vectors.

Quantitative assessment of the probability of bluetongue virus transmission by bovine semen and effectiveness of preventive measures

Given that bluetongue (BT) may potentially be transmitted by semen, that the disease has significantly expanded in recent years, and that millions of doses of cattle semen are annually traded throughout the world, the transmission of bluetongue virus (BTV) by semen could have severe consequences in the cattle industry. The hypothesis that infected bulls could excrete BTV in their semen led to restrictions on international trade of ruminant semen and the establishment of measures to prevent BTV transmission by semen. However, neither the risk of BTV transmission by semen nor the effectiveness of these measures was estimated quantitatively. The objective of the study was to assess, in case of introduction of BTV into a bovine semen collection centre (SCC), both the risk of BTV transmission by bovine semen and the risk reduction achieved by some of the preventive measures, by means of a stochastic risk assessment model. The model was applied to different scenarios, depending on for example the type of diagnostic test and the interval between the controls (testing) of donor bulls, or the rate of BTV spread within the SCC.Enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (ELISA) controls of donor bulls every 60 days seemed to be an ineffective method for reducing the risk of BTV transmission in contrast to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests every 28 days. An increase in the rate of spread within the SCC resulted in a reduced risk of BTV transmission by semen. The storage of semen for 30 days prior to dispatch seemed to be an efficient way of reducing the risk of transmission by semen.The sensitivity analysis identified the probability of BTV shedding in semen as a crucial parameter in the probability of BTV transmission by semen. However, there is a great degree of uncertainty associated with this parameter, with significant differences depending on the BTV serotype.

Bluetongue control strategy, including recourse to vaccine: a critical review

The bluetongue (BT) epidemic that has prevailed in Europe since 2000 is the first example of continental spread of the BT virus (BTV) in large naive populations of susceptible animals. Based on the results of intensive surveillance and research in countries of the southern Mediterranean that were affected by the infection early on in the epidemic, a new strategy for prevention and control of the disease was developed to limit direct losses and to reduce the consequences due to movement restrictions. The basic innovations that were introduced were the use of mass vaccination of all domestic ruminant species to limit the spread of BTV and the use of intensive active surveillance to limit, as far as possible, the zone where movement restrictions must be applied. The novel strategy that was adopted dramatically reduced the number of clinical outbreaks in southern Europe and the Mediterranean Basin and ensured safer animal trade. In 2006, the first BTV-8 epidemic occurred, this time in north-western Europe. During this epidemic, affected countries adopted a 'wait and see' approach. No vaccination was implemented until 2008 and, in many instances, the movement of animals was authorised within restricted areas, thereby facilitating the spread of infection. The delay in administering vaccination was due to the decision to avoid the use of modified live virus vaccines, although this type of vaccine performed satisfactorily in the previous BT epidemics in southern Europe. Bluetongue has demonstrated that the infectious agents present in southern Africa can easily spread to the Mediterranean Basin, which should be considered a single entity as far as the epidemiology of animal diseases is concerned. Therefore, any effective strategy for the prevention and control of animal disease in Europe must take into account this reality and recognise the need for regional surveillance networks that include all the countries that border the Mediterranean.

Eight years of entomological surveillance in Italy show no evidence ofCulicoides imicolageographical range expansion

Summary1.Assessing changes in species range is based on identifying new occurrences in areas where absence has been inferred due to lack of previous records. This technique depends on creating a consistent observational dataset, based on comparable detection methods.2.In Mediterranean countries, the midgeCulicoides imicolais the principal vector of bluetongue virus (BTV) that causes an infectious disease of domestic and wild ruminants. Over the last 10 years, BTV has invaded Mediterranean countries (1998) and much of Northern Europe (2006); this unprecedented spread is reported to be a possible consequence of climate change. In southern Europe, based on recent observations found in northern latitudes, BTV spread has been attributed in part to changes inC. imicoladistribution. However, current sampling ofCulicoidesspp. is far more intensive and targeted than that undertaken before the first BTV epidemics; this obviously results in new information from areas in which collections would have had little chance of positive identification in the past.3.Since 2001, a national surveillance programme based on permanent traps was established in Italy to followC. imicolapopulation dynamics in space and time. Based on data from 2000 to 2001 cross‐sectional studies, Italy was divided into three zones (I: endemicity; II: transition; III: absence) in which longitudinal data onC. imicolapresence and abundance were analysed as a function of time between 2002 and 2007 through linear and quantile regressions.4.The results from the surveillance programme demonstrate no detectable range expansion of theC. imicolapopulation in Italy between 2002 and 2007.5.Synthesis and applications. This study provides strong evidence that there has been no measurable range expansion between 2002 and 2007 in a species previously described as moving northwards as a result of climate change. For any reliable conclusions to be drawn on the range distribution ofC. imicolaor other similar vector species in Southern Europe,theCulicoidessurveillance system across all European countries should be designed to provide comparable data based on a constant detection probability over time.

A modeling framework to describe the transmission of bluetongue virus within and between farms in Great Britain.

BackgroundRecently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed.Conclusions/SignificanceThe model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain.