Spot Market Volatility Research Articles

Foreign Exchange Futures Trading and Spot Market Volatility in Thailand

This paper investigates how the introduction of foreign exchange futures has an impact on spot volatility and considers the contemporaneous and dynamic relationship between spot volatility and foreign exchange futures trading activity, including trading volume and open interest in the Thailand Futures Exchange context, with the examples of the EUR/USD futures and USD/JPY futures. The results of the EGARCH (1,1) model show that the introduction of foreign exchange futures decreases spot volatility. It also increases the rate at which new information is impounded into spot prices but decreases the persistency of volatility shocks. A positive effect of unexpected trading volume and a negative effect of unexpected open interest on contemporaneous spot volatility are in line with the VAR(1) model results of the dynamic relationship between spot volatility and foreign exchange futures trading activity. With the impact on spot volatility caused by unexpected open interest rate being stronger than by unexpected trading volume, foreign exchange futures trading stabilizes spot volatility.

Procurement portfolio management for resilient supply chains: value of information for risk averse decision making

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the replenishment decisions for firms that rely on multiple sources of supplies, including regular forward contracts, option contracts, and the spot market. Our research aims to tackle the challenges arising due to supplier disruptions and the volatility of spot market prices that are correlated with these disruptions. We develop and solve multi-stage stochastic programming models that incorporate demand and supplier disruption information updates, while considering both risk-neutral and risk averse (CVaR) objectives. These models assist organizations with varying risk attitudes in achieving maximum performance by optimally selecting a procurement portfolio based on the availability and quality of updated information. Through analytical solutions and extensive numerical studies, our findings offer novel insights to organizations and policymakers, empowering them to enhance their supply chain resilience during critical supply disruption situations. Therefore, this research has broader implications and aligns with the multiple sustainability objectives outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

A Joint Electricity Market-Clearing Mechanism for Flexible Ramping Products with a Convex Spot Market Model

A high proportion of renewable energy access makes the net load of the power system volatile and uncertain, increasing the demand for the ramping capacity of the power system. Traditional electricity spot markets compensate for the power imbalances caused by an insufficient ramping capacity through traditional flexibility services such as ancillary services and interconnection power. However, conventional flexibility services may lead to frequency deviations in the power system, increased response costs, spikes in electricity prices, and dramatic price volatility in the traditional spot market. To solve the above problems, this paper proposes an FRP and convex electricity spot market joint clearing (FCESMJC) market mechanism. The FCESMJC model can more accurately represent the relationship between electrical power output and the price of electricity and reduces the number of spikes in electricity prices. In addition, a novel FRP pricing method is proposed to compensate FRP market participants for their FRP costs more reasonably. Additionally, the difference in system performance is provided by comparing the energy prices, pricing method, clearing prices, and system costs in the FCESMJC method and the traditional electricity spot market. The FCESMJC system reduces the total system cost by 18.6% compared with the electricity spot market. Numerical experiments are simulated on the IEEE 14-bus test system to validate the superiority of the proposed model.

The Temporal Study of Spot and Futures Market Volatility : Cross Linkages among the Equity, Commodity, and Forex Markets in India

The Temporal Study of Spot and Futures Market Volatility : Cross Linkages among the Equity, Commodity, and Forex Markets in India

Derivatives Market: A Survey

Our research paper surveys prior research on derivatives markets. We mainly review the literature investigating the impact of introducing derivatives markets on the underlying market and the overall economic development. Particularly, we summarize papers investigating the effects on the spot market liquidity, spot market volatility, and the price discovery process. We review the literature on several countries, but the survey paper appears to be concentrated on Saudi Arabia. Our paper contributes to the literature and sheds light on introducing the derivatives market in Saudi Arabia. This survey is useful to policymakers and investors as well.

REGULATORíS DECISION AND RISK MANAGEMENT: THE CASE OF INDIA

Whenever Indian Economy had to tackle signiÖcant ináationary pressure, Secu- rities Exchange Board of India (SEBI), which is the apex regulator of capital and commodity markets, has time and again resorted to stop the trade in futures of essential agricultural commodities while allowing trade in futures of essential energy commodities. SEBI has jus- tiÖed the step on the grounds that, doing so prevents volatility in agricultural spot market. Our study tries to analyze the nature of correction in the two segments with the help of vec- tor error correction model in the backdrop of ináationary and non-ináationary periods. In energy segment, among select commodities, the speed of error correction was 1to 2 days more as compared to non-ináationary period. With regards to commercial agricultural segment, the rate of error correction among select commodities was 4 to 7 days more as compared to non-ináationary period. Given the underdeveloped nature of agricultural futures market, SEBIís action seems bit too stringent. Although prior studies have been undertaken about Indian spot and derivative markets, empirical studies which have focused on analyzing eco- nomic rationale of SEBIís decision of restricting trade in agricultural futures during ináation are scarce. Our study tries to bridge the gap regarding the same.

The Effects of Index Futures Trading Volume on Spot Market Volatility in a Frontier Market: Evidence from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange

This analysis is the first to investigate the influence of index futures trading volume on spot market volatility for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE). The data utilized in this study are the daily VN30-Index futures contract trading volume starting at the inception date for the VN30-Index futures contract, 10 August 2017 and going through 10 August 2022. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the empirical findings reveal a positive relation between VN30-Index futures trading volume and the volatility of the spot market for the HOSE in the short-run. In addition, the results of the ARDL tests confirm in for the long-run, trading volume of futures contracts has a significant positive influence on spot market volatility. Moreover, the results derived from the error correction model (ECM) indicate that only 5.54% of the disequilibria from the previous trading day are converged and corrected back to the long-run equilibrium from the current day. Based on the findings, we recommend that Vietnamese policymakers establish relevant intervention polices on speculation of individual investors in order to provide stabilization safeguards for the underlying stock market.

Cross-regional effects of renewable power generation on the electricity market: an empirical study on Japan's electricity spot market

ABSTRACT We examined the indirect effects of renewable power generated in Tohoku on the electricity spot market in Tokyo, through the channel of cross-regional interconnection. By adopting a two-step regression analysis framework, we investigated how the renewable power generated in Tohoku affects Tokyo’s spot price and market volatility. Our results indicate that the electricity spot market is affected not only by within-regional renewable power generation but also by cross-regional transmitted renewable power generation through interconnection. The relatively higher price reduction effect of transmitted power can be attributed to higher price elasticity under a tight supply-demand balance. Our results confirm the cross-regional price stabilization effect of renewable power generation in Tohoku. We attribute the negative effect on realized volatility of Tokyo to the relatively stabler renewable electricity supply from Tohoku. Furthermore, we find that renewable power producers – especially solar power producers – are not incentivized by the fixed-price feed-in tariff to meet electricity demand during peak hours.

Pay Senedi Endeksleri ile Endeks Vadeli İşlemler Arasındaki Volatilite İlişkisi: Türkiye ve Dünya Örnekleri Arasında Karşılaştırmalı Analiz

Bu çalışmanın konusunu, pay senedi endeksleri ile bu endekslerin dayanak varlık olduğu vadeli işlemler arasındaki volatilite ilişkisinin analizi oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışma, spot endeksler ile endeks vadeli işlemler arasındaki volatilite ilişkisinin yönünü tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye örneğinde yüksek işlem hacmi göz önünde bulundurularak BIST 30 endeksi ve BIST 30 endeks vadeli işlemleri arasındaki volatilite ilişkisinin ekonometrik yöntemlerle incelenmesi, elde edilen verilerin Dünya’daki önemli endekslerle karşılaştırılması ve analiz sonuçlarının değerlendirilmesidir. Bu amaçla, BIST 30 endeksi ve BIST 30 endeks vadeli işlemleri arasında herhangi bir volatilite ilişkisi olup olmadığı hususu ekonometrik yöntemlerle analiz edilerek, Dünya örnekleri ile kıyaslamalar yapılmıştır. Dünyanın gelişmiş borsalarında işlem gören DAX 30 ve S&P 500 spot piyasa endeksleri ile DAX 30 ve S&P 500 endeks vadeli işlemleri arasındaki volatilite ilişkisine bakılarak Türkiye örneği ile karşılaştırmalar yapılmıştır. Getiri ve işlem hacimlerine ilişkin oynaklık tahminleri için Otoregresif Koşullu Değişen Varyans (ARCH) Modelleri kullanıldığından, spot endeksler ile endeks vadeli işlemler arasındaki volatilite ilişkisi GARCH, TARCH, EGARCH ve PARCH modelleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Uygulama aşamasında elde edilen bulgular, 2006-2021 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde her iki piyasa arasında çift yönlü volatilite ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Ancak bu çift yönlü ilişki, koşullu varyans denklemindeki açıklayıcı değişkenlerinin katsayılarının çok küçük olması nedeniyle istatistiksel olarak çok önem arz etmemektedir.

Interest Rate Futures in India: Future Trading and Spot Market Volatility

The introduction of trading in interest rate futures in the country heralds the beginning of a new era in the fixed income derivatives market. Initial hiccups with regard to the product design and variations from the global standards would settle down over a period of time and the product would emerge as a path breaker, paving the way for many more initiatives on the derivatives front. The introduction of trading in interest rate futures in India is one more step towards integration of the Indian Securities Market with the rest of the world. Globally, interest rate derivatives are the darlings of the market and account for around 70% of the total derivatives transactions across the economies. In India, it may be seen as a path breaking initiative because it is expected to pave the way for various innovations at the derivatives front in the time to come. Although market participants have unanimously appreciated the initiative, there appears to exist certain apprehensions in their mind with regard to the product design and impact upon the volatility of the interest rate. This study attempts to address those issues.

Price Discovery and Volatility Spillover in Commodity Futures and Spot Market in India: An Empirical Analysis

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the price discovery process, persistence of volatility and spillover of volatility in commodity futures and spot market in India. Methodology: In this paper, commodities namely, mentha oil, cotton, gold and aluminium have been selected to explore the process of price discovery, volatility persistence and spillover of volatility using cointegration test, vector error correction (VECM), granger causality and GARCH model. Findings: The results of VECM suggest that price discovery takes place in futures market in case of all commodities except for mentha oil where price discovery occurs in spot market. The Block Exogeneity Wald test (granger causality) results also show that futures market has stronger ability to predict the spot prices. The results of GARCH model indicate that volatility is persistent for all commodities except mentha oil futures return. In the support of VECM and granger causality test results, GARCH model results also indicate that volatility spillovers from futures return to spot return for all selected commodities except cotton where volatility spillovers from spot return to futures return. Practical Implications: The findings of this study significantly contribute to the Indian commodity derivatives market literature and useful for future researchers, investors, hedgers, economists and policy makers. Originality: There are very few studies that have examined the price discovery process and spillover of volatility using combination of both agricultural and nonagricultural commodities in India.

The impact of option hedging on the spot market volatility

We theoretically model and empirically quantify the feedback effect of delta hedging for the spot market volatility of the forex market. We start from an economy with two types of traders, an aggregated option market maker (OMM) and an aggregated option market taker (OMT), whose exposures reflect the total outstanding positions of all option traders in the market. A different hedge ratio of the OMM and OMT leads to a net delta hedge activity, which introduces market friction. We represent this friction by a simple linear permanent impact model. This approach allows us to derive the dependence of the spot market volatility on the gamma exposure of the traders. Our theoretical model shows that the spot market volatility is increased (decreased) by a negative (positive) gamma exposure of the OMM, whereby the amount of the increase depends on the net delta hedge amount executed in the spot market. To empirically test this model, we first reconstruct the aggregated OMM’s gamma exposure by using trade repository data and find that it is negative. The empirical analysis performed over the period from 21st October 2017 to 30th June 2018 using our reconstructed OMM data then strongly supports our theoretical model: The gamma exposure of the OMM turns out to be highly significant for the spot market volatility and, as expected, the spot market volatility is increased with the OMM’s short gamma exposure. Quantitatively, a negative gamma exposure of the OMM of approximately −1000 billion USD (which is around what we observe from our reconstructed OMM data) leads to an absolute increase in volatility of 0.7% in EURUSD and 0.9% in USDJPY.

The Behavior and Impact of Heterogeneous Investors in China’s Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent‐Based Model on Cross‐Market Trades

Since the period of unusual volatility in China’s A‐share market in 2015, there has been an ongoing discussion about the role of stock index futures in the A‐share market. There is no unified consensus among academics and industry insiders on whether stock index futures affect spot market volatility. Using agent‐based modeling, we construct a theoretical model of the order book of the stock index futures market to assess the microbehavior of speculators, arbitrageurs, and hedgers in this market. We then calibrate the link between the futures and spot models to explore the respective influences of heterogeneous investors in the two markets. We find that speculators, arbitrageurs, and hedgers all play different roles and have varying effects on the two markets. While speculators serve as the foundation for other investors to participate in trading activities, both arbitrageurs and hedgers affect the spot market by significantly reducing volatility, enhancing price efficiency, and playing a positive role in the operation of this market. We develop our model from the perspective of investor behavior and explain why the stock index futures market can reduce spot market volatility. In addition, our conclusion may help regulators understand the roles played by different types of investors in the Chinese stock index futures market.

Coordinating a Three‐Level Fresh Agricultural Product Supply Chain considering Option Contract under Spot Price Uncertainty

We consider a three‐level fresh agricultural product supply chain consisting of a producer, a supplier, and a retailer, where the producer plants the initial fresh agricultural products with yield uncertainty, the supplier is the leader of the supply chain and the designer of the contracts, and the retailer sells processed products with random demand and spot price. This paper discusses coordination mechanism of wholesale price contracts or option contracts between the supplier and the retailer and wholesale price contracts between the supplier and the producer. Based on this, we not only explore the conditions for supply chain full coordination and Pareto improvement but also analyze the effect of the retailer’s spot market volatility by comparing two scenarios of the retailer with or without a random spot market. Results show that the wholesale price contract cannot coordinate the supply chain regardless of whether the retailer has a random spot market or not. The supply chain can be simultaneously fully coordinated and achieve Pareto improvement by setting reasonable option contract parameters, but the conditions for coordination are rigorous. When the expected value of reduction from the retailer’s spot market in unit shortage loss cost is greater, the total profit of supply chain will increase. Numerical analysis shows that the option exercise price must be set higher when the retailer has a spot market to achieve Pareto improvement. The loss rate in distribution process and other volatility risks will also affect the coordination of the agricultural supply chain.

Impact of Currency Futures on Spot Market Volatility in Indian Foreign Exchange Market

Impact of Currency Futures on Spot Market Volatility in Indian Foreign Exchange Market

Relationship Between Spot Prices and Futures Prices: Evidence From Karachi Stock Exchange

This study investigates the relationship between futures prices and their underlying spot prices of the stocks trading on Pakistan stock market. Data on the monthly closing prices of future contracts and their underlying stocks of 30 companies for the period January 2004 to June 2014 have been taken for analysis. Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dicky Fuller test for unit root testing, Johnson Co-integration test, Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model are used. The results confirms significant long term relationship between futures prices and the associated Spot prices in case of 26 companies. The report of Granger causality test indicates that a Bi-directional causality lack to exist in case of each security, VECM shows that Spot prices for current month are effected by previous month prices in case of 7 companies, while futures prices of current month are affected by previous month prices in case of 4 companies. VECM illustrates that the volatility shocks in spot market are less effected by futures market, however the volatility shocks in corresponding futures market were strongly and significantly affected by spot market volatility.

Finding Multiple Equilibria for Raiffa–Kalai–Smorodinsky and Nash Bargaining Equilibria in Electricity Markets: A Bilateral Contract Model

In a deregulated market, energy can be exchanged like a commodity and the market agents including generators, distributors, and the end consumers can trade energy independently settling the price, volume, and the supply terms. Bilateral contracts (BCs) have been applied to hedge against price volatility in the electricity spot market. This work introduces a model to find all solutions for the equilibria implementing the Raiffa–Kalai–Smorodinski (RKS) and the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) approaches in an electricity market based on BCs. It is based on creating “holes” around an existing equilibrium within the feasibility set, yielding a new (smaller) feasibility set at each iteration. This research has two players: a generation company (GC) and an electricity supplier company (ESC), aiming to achieve the highest profit for each of them. The results present all possible RKS and NBS, in addition to showing all assigned energies for a case study at different time frames. The multiple equilibria solutions allow the ESC and the GC to apply different strategies knowing that they can still achieve an optimal solution.

The Impacts of Futures Introduction on Spot Market Volatility: Evidence from the Bitcoin Market

The impact of Bitcoin futures introduction on the underlying Bitcoin volatility has been a controversial topic. Conflicting results had been obtained with different sample periods and methodologies. To address this debate, this study examines the impacts of Bitcoin futures trading on spot market volatility in the short and long run. Using exponential GARCH model, we introduce a dummy in the variance equation to capture the changes in the volatility before and after the introduction of Bitcoin futures. We find that after Bitcoin futures introduction, spot return volatility decreases in the short run, but increases in the long run. Besides, in the short run, there exists an inverse leverage effect before and after the introduction of futures; in the long run, it changes from an inverse leverage effect to a usual leverage effect. Finally, we examine whether greater futures trading activity, including volume and open interest, is associated with greater Bitcoin volatility. To do so, we decompose each proxy for trading activity into expected and unexpected components and document that Bitcoin volatility covaries positively with unexpected futures trading volume, but negatively related to forecastable futures trading volume.

Impact of Currency Futures on Spot Market Volatility in Indian Foreign Exchange Market

This work is an endeavor to explore the relationship of Lag between future & underlying market, ie. Spot in foreign exchange market of India. Only the USD/INR exchange rate is considered for the study for the presented work. This study is comprised of both analytical and empirical. The daily exchange rates of US Dollar and Indian Rupee (INR) were collected over some time from 30th January 2015 up to 23rd November 2020. The presented study has been worked out in four phases. First is to get (Augmented Dickey-Fuller), unit root and stationarity tests PP (i.e., Philips- Perron) & Kwiatkowski Phillips Schmidt-Shin) is being applied to check time series data stationarity. Second, to get cointegration between the futures and spot market tests (Johansen’s Cointegration Test) was used. Granger Causality and Vector error correction models are used to get the lag relationship between futures and spot markets. The results depict the long-run relationship between the spot market and futures market, and the futures market is seen as leading in the empirical analysis of this paper. From the perspective of Investors, hedgers, and Policy Maker, Currency Futures has more helpful information to work further.

Wavelet-based analysis of guar futures in India: did we kill the golden goose?

PurposeGuar Gum (GG) is used in Shale oil exploration. Excessive price increase in the Guar futures market had a spillover impact on Guar spot prices and affected Guar export from India as Shale oil producers started exploring alternate sources. In this paper, the role of excessive speculation in the futures market, and its adverse impact on the guar-based agri-business ecosystem have been empirically explored.Design/methodology/approachVolatility spillover dynamics between WTI crude oil and Guar futures have been explored using bivariate-Granger Causality, BEKK–GARCH models with Wavelet multi-resolution analysis. The wavelet-based models capture the multi-scale features of mean and volatility spillover to identify the effect of heterogenous investment behavior in the time and frequency domain.FindingsThe results provide evidence that excessive speculation in futures markets increases spot market volatility. The results also suggest that the excess presence of short-term investors can destabilize the futures market.Research limitations/implicationsThe purpose of the commodity futures market is to support price discovery and risk management. However, speculative practices can destabilize these purposes leading to the failure of the business ecosystem.Originality/valueThe novelty of this paper is twofold. First, it explores the economic linkages between the spot and futures market and tests whether the presence of heterogeneous traders affects the economic linkages. Second, it models the impact of short-term speculative investment on the destabilization of the spot market.