Spot Market Return Research Articles

Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price

ABSTRACTDeviations from the law of one price between futures and spot prices—the futures‐cash basis—capture information about liquidity demand for equity market exposure in global markets. We show that the basis comoves with dealer and investor futures positions, is contemporaneously positively correlated with futures and spot market returns, and negatively predicts futures and spot returns. These findings are consistent with the futures‐cash basis reflecting liquidity demand that is common to futures and cash equity markets. We find persistent supply‐demand imbalances for equity index exposure reflected in the basis, giving rise to an annual premium of 5% to 6%.

What effect did the introduction of Bitcoin futures have on the Bitcoin spot market?

Bitcoin futures were introduced in December 2017 and this was seen by some as a sign of the most popular cryptocurrency finally being accepted by the financial community. In this paper, we examine the impact of the introduction of Bitcoin futures on the Bitcoin spot market in terms of five characteristics – returns, volatility, skewness, kurtosis and liquidity, using a Bayesian diffusion-regression (state-space) structural time-series model. Our results indicate that the introduction of bitcoin futures potentially exerted a downward impact on the USD bitcoin spot market return and skewness and an upward one on volatility, kurtosis and liquidity, which became higher after futures were introduced. Therefore, our paper offers important insights for investors and regulators, while providing some guidance as to the potential impact of futures markets on other cryptocurrencies.

The Impact of Index Future Introduction on Spot Market Returns and Trading Volume: Evidence from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange

The objective of this study is to enrich the literature by investigating the impact of introduction of index future trading on spot market returns and trading volume in Vietnam. Data used in this study mainly consist of daily VN30-Index and market trading volume series during the period from February 6th, 2012 to December 31st, 2019. Using OLS, GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models, the empirical findings consistently confirm that the introduction of index future trading has no impact on the spot market returns. In addition, the results of the EGARCH(1,1) model indicate that the leverage effect on the spot market volatility is existence in HOSE. Specifically, bad news has a greater effect on the market volatility than good news of the same size. Moreover, our empirical findings reveal that the introduction of index future contracts has the positive impact on the underlying market trading volume. Specifically, the trading volume of the post-index futures introduction increases by 7.5 percent compared with the pre-index futures introduction. Finally, the results obtained from the Granger causality test for the relationship between the spot market returns and the future trading activity confirm that only uni-directional causality running from the market returns to the future trading activity exists in HOSE.

Volatility persistence and asymmetry under the microscope: the role of information demand for gold and oil

AbstractThis study explores the relationship between Google search activity and the conditional volatility of oil and gold spot market returns. By aggregating the volume of queries related to the two commodity markets in the spirit of Da et al. (), we construct a weekly Searching Volume Index (SVI) for each market as proxy of households and investors information demand. We employ a rolling EGARCH framework to reveal how the significance of information demand has evolved through time. We find that higher information demand increases conditional volatility in gold and oil spot market returns. Information flows from Google SVI's reduce the proportion of the significant volatility asymmetry produced by negative shocks in both commodity markets. The latter is more profound in the gold market.

What If Bitcoin Futures Had Never Been Introduced?

Bitcoin futures were introduced in December 2017 and was seen by some as a sign that the most popular cryptocurrency was being accepted by the financial community. In this paper, we examine what the Bitcoin market would look like if Bitcoin futures were never introduced. We implement a Bayesian diffusion-regression (state-space) structural time-series model that enables us to predict the counterfactual market response in a synthetic control that would have occurred had no futures market been introduced. Our results indicate that if bitcoin futures had never been introduced, the USD bitcoin spot market return and skewness would be higher, while volatility, kurtosis and liquidity would be lower. Therefore, our paper offers important insights for investors and regulators, while also providing some guidance to the potential impact of futures markets on other cryptocurrencies.

The Impact of Futures Trading Over Spot Market Intraday Volatility: Evidence From an Emerging Market, Borsa Istanbul

The objective of this article is to examine the impact of stock index futures on stock markets. Of particular interest is the evidence for change in overall volatility and liquidity after the introduction of stock index futures. The impact of derivatives trading on price volatility in the underlying spot market return is examined using the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model which was proposed by Nelson (1991). Our empirical findings support the view that introducing futures trading decreases volatility in the spot market and the speed with which market information is reflected in spot market prices. However, volatility persistence increased in the post-futures period. In the light of these findings it can be said that the speed and nature of information differ between pre-futures period and post-futures period. JEL Classification : G13, G14, G32 Keywords : Futures Markets, Spot Markets, Volatility, GARCH Models, Emerging Markets DOI : 10.7176/RJFA/10-2-07

Efficiency in Agricultural Spice Commodities Futures Markets in India

This paper is to analyze the efficiency of agricultural spices commodity markets by assessing the relationships between futures prices and spot market prices of major agricultural spices commodities in India during the sample period of January 2010 through December 2014. The econometric tools like Unit root tests, Johansen co-integration test, and Pairwise Granger Causality tests were employed in the study. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests and Phillips-Perron tests employed in the study proved that both the selected metals markets were stationary series, Johansen co-integration test proved selected metals spot and future markets are co-integrating each other and the Granger Causality test proved uni-causality relationships among these markets between spot and future market return series during the study period.

The Spot Price Discovery of Put-call Ratio of KOSPI200 Nighttime Options

Trading of KOSPI200 options on Eurex launched in 2010 starts at 17:00 after market and closes at 05:00 in the next morning. This paper attempts to examine the role of put-call ratio of KOSPI200 nighttime options in price discovery process of spot market. The main findings of this paper are summarized as followings; The information content of put-call ratio of nighttime options is significantly incorporated in opening price of spot market next trading day but not delayed to the daytime spot market. Specifically, all put-call ratios measured in terms of total volume, total value, and cleared volume of nighttime options has strongly positive correlation with returns of KOSPI200 next trading day but put-call ratio of daytime option market has no predictive power of next daily return during sample period. This implies that the nighttime options market shows more leading role than daytime options in opening price discovery. This relationship between put-call ration and spot market return remains statistically significant during the period of the multiplier for KOSPI200 options increased. However, the change in put-call ratio of nighttime options is significantly explained by precedent put-call ratio of daytime market. This Overall empirical evidence indicates that traders of KOSPI200 options have tendency to implement strategy of linkage between price movement of daytime and nighttime market.

Causality between Indian Futures and Cash Markets - Analysis with Granger Causality Block Exogenity Model

In India, spot market return, number of contracts, turnover and volatility of the futures market are having short run relationship with futures market return. On the basis of the empirical analysis it is clearly found that spot market is the key factor that predicts the movement of futures market and the trader can depend upon volatility and trading volume to take any decision on futures market trading. In precise, spot market return, volatility of the futures market, turnover and number of contract are the determinants of the futures market in India. Spot market return is the major determinants of the futures market, indeed variables from futures market itself like open interest and turnover of futures market can be taken into consideration for determining the futures market return. The empirical study is made with spot return, futures return, volatility of futures return, number of contract, trading volume and open interest of S&P CNX Nifty and its underlying index Nifty -50 for the period 12th June 2000- 30th June 2011by applying the VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeny Test.  JEL Classification Code:  G13

Causality & Lead Lag Relationship between Indian Futures and Cash Markets

In India, spot market return, number of contract, turnover and volatility of the futures market are having short run relationship with futures market return. It is found that spot market is the key factor which predicts the movement of futures market and the trader can depend upon volatility and trading volume to take any decision on futures market trading. In precise, spot market return, volatility of the futures market, turnover and number of contract are the determinants of futures market in India. Spot market return is the major determinants of futures market, indeed variables from futures market itself like open interest and turnover of futures market can be taken in to consideration for determining the futures market return. The empirical study is made with spot return, futures return, volatility of futures return, number of contract, trading volume and open interest of S&P CNX Nifty and its underlying index Nifty-50 for the period 12th June 2000-30th June 2011by applying the VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogenity Test.

Determinants of Futures Market in India

In India, spot market return, number of contract, turnover and volatility of the futures market are having short run relationship with futures market return. On the basis of the empirical analysis it is clearly found that spot market is the key factor which predicts the movement of futures market and the trader can depend upon volatility and trading volume to take any decision on futures market trading. In precise, spot market return, volatility of the futures market, turnover and number of contract are the determinants of futures market in India. Spot market return is the major determinants of futures market, indeed variables from futures market itself like open interest and turnover of futures market can be taken in to consideration for determining the futures market return. The empirical study is made with spot return, futures return, volatility of futures return, number of contract, trading volume and open interest of S&P CNX Nifty and its underlying index Nifty-50 for the period 12th June 2000- 30th June 2011 by applying the VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogenity Test.

Information Content of CSI 300 Index Futures during Extended Trading Hours: Evidence from China

China established its stock futures exchange in year 2006, but not until year 2010 did the first futures contract become publicly available for trading. The tight government as well as the composition of market participants raises the question that whether this futures market is informationally efficient. We study the information incorporation of the futures market during the extended trading hours beyond those of the underlying spot market. Our analyses show that, first, spot market is the main information source of the futures market. In addition, using a T-GARCH model, we show that the post-closing, overnight and pre-opening returns are significantly correlated with the overnight spot market return. Second, the return innovations of the futures market significantly correlate with the overnight spot market return, indicating a price discovery role of the futures market. Finally, the futures market during the extended hours reflects the overnight news in the U.S. market.

Futures Trading and Spot Market Volatility: Evidence from Indian Commodity Markets

In the context of emerging Indian commodity futures markets, this paper empirically examines the effect of futures trading activity (trading volume ; proxy of futures liquidity) on spot price volatility for seven agricultural commodities (guar seeds, turmeric, soya bean, black pepper, barley, Maize and Castor Seed).We decompose the futures volume into expected and unexpected components using Hodrick–Prescott filter (HP filter) .To clearly understand the destabilization effect, the relationship of the unexpected liquidity of futures market is done with Unexpected volatility of spot market returns which is estimated by taking the residuals of the GARCH model. We find that unexpected futures trading volume is Granger causing spot price volatility and are significant for five out of seven agricultural commodities (Guarseed, Turmeric, Soybean, Maize and Castor Seed), consistent with Bessembinder and Seguin (1992).We find reversed effect for one commodity i.e. Pepper the effect of spot volatility on futures trading and for Barley no causality is revealed either from future to spot or Vice-Versa. Besides being of interest to the participants, this study is likely to be useful in addressing the concerns of policy makers in India on alleged destabilizing effect of futures markets on spot prices as for emerging futures markets. Commodity exchanges must be strengthen and put under strict and active monitoring for early detection of anomalous trading behaviour. Financial autonomy and adequate powers should be given to Forward Market Commission to penalise any insider trading and price manipulations, this will minimize price distortions. The Government support shall lead to market growth and overall economic development.

Program Trading Effects on KOSPI and KOSPI200 Futures Market

This study examines whether program trading has an impact on the Korean stock market. We evaluate the dynamic interrelations between net program trading, net arbitrage trading, daily KOSPI return, volatility of KOSPI prices and daily KOSPI200 futures return. The relations are tested by performing Vector Autoregressive Models, Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function, and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition. We find that changes in the spot market return (or the futures return) lead to changes in net program trading and net arbitrage trading. However, changes in net program trading (or net arbitrage trading) do not cause changes in spot return (or futures return). Our results do not support the widely-held claim that program trading tends to increase the stock market volatility.

Heat Waves or Meteor Showers: Empirical Evidence from Indian Stock Market

In order to study the volatility spillovers / the transfer of volatilities from spot and futures markets for the period 1st January 2001 to 30th November 2005 with high frequency data i.e., one minute intervals, we have used GARCH models to compute volatilities and VAR models for the returns of different markets and for the volatilities. It is evident that, these VAR models for the volatilities can exhibit the nature of the change in volatility.In a heat wave, the conditional variance of the returns in spot (futures) market depends only upon the past shocks in the given market. For meteor showers, the impact of shocks on spot (futures) markets are transferred from other i.e., futures (spot) markets. With the VAR (1)-GARCH (1,1) analysis, we found that both series are I(1) and that a bi-directional relationship exists between the spot and future market return series. Empirically it is evident that both heat waves and meteor showers exist in Indian spot and futures markets.

The effect of futures trading on the distribution of spot index returns: Implications for CVaR in the Spanish market

AbstractThere is extensive empirical research on the potential destabilizing effects of futures trading activity on spot market volatility. Rather than just focusing on spot volatility, the authors deal with the contemporaneous relationship between futures trading volume and the overall probability distribution of spot market returns. Empirical evidence using intraday data from the Spanish stock index futures market over the period 2000–2002 is provided. Their findings reveal that the density function of spot return conditional to spot volume depends on unexpected futures trading volume.

Robust estimation of the optimal hedge ratio

AbstractWhen using derivative instruments such as futures to hedge a portfolio of risky assets, the primary objective is to estimate the optimal hedge ratio (OHR). When agents have mean‐variance utility and the futures price follows a martingale, the OHR is equivalent to the minimum variance hedge ratio,which can be estimated by regressing the spot market return on the futures market return using ordinary least squares. To accommodate time‐varying volatility in asset returns, estimators based on rolling windows, GARCH, or EWMA models are commonly employed. However, all of these approaches are based on the sample variance and covariance estimators of returns, which, while consistent irrespective of the underlying distribution of the data, are not in general efficient. In particular, when the distribution of the data is leptokurtic, as is commonly found for short horizon asset returns, these estimators will attach too much weight to extreme observations. This article proposes an alternative to the standard approach to the estimation of the OHR that is robust to the leptokurtosis of returns. We use the robust OHR to construct a dynamic hedging strategy for daily returns on the FTSE100 index using index futures. We estimate the robust OHR using both the rolling window approach and the EWMA approach, and compare our results to those based on the standard rolling window and EWMA estimators. It is shown that the robust OHR yields a hedged portfolio variance that is marginally lower than that based on the standard estimator. Moreover, the variance of the robust OHR is as much as 70% lower than the variance of the standard OHR, substantially reducing the transaction costs that are associated with dynamic hedging strategies. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:799–816, 2003

Intraday return and volatility relationships between the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets

Abstract. This paper analyses the intraday lead-lag relationships between returns and volatilities in the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets. Using hourly data, we jointly analyze the interactions between markets, estimating a bivariate error correction model with GARCH perturbations which captures stochastically the presence of an intraday U-shaped curve for both spot and futures market volatility. Our findings show a bidirectional causal relationship between market volatilities, with a positive feedback. This two-way transmission of volatility is consistent with market prices evolving according to a long-run equilibrium relationship, and shocks affecting both markets in the same direction. Our empirical results also support a unidirectional cross interaction from futures to spot market returns. This pattern suggests that the futures market leads the spot market in order to incorporate the arrival of new information.

A note on weekday, intraday, and overnight patterns in the interbank foreign exchange and listed currency options markets

Transactions data are used to investigate returns patterns for close-to-close, close-to-open, and intraday long positions in spot currency (interbank) and currency put options (listed) for the years 1983 through 1988. Both trading-day and calendar-day hypotheses are investigated. Under the former, spot market returns are found to be significantly higher from Friday close to Monday close and from Friday close to Monday open. Under the calendar-day hypothesis, however, no significant close-to-close pattern emerges, and the Friday close to Monday open effect is reversed. Finally, spot (put) market returns are found to be significantly lower (higher) for Tuesday and Friday afternoons.