Objective: To analyze the risk factors of recurrence or metastasis of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) and the influencing factors of disease-free survival (DFS). Methods: The clinicopathological data of MTC patients who visited Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital and underwent surgery from August 2014 to August 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into recurrence or metastasis group and no recurrence or metastasis group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors for recurrence or metastasis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis were used to determine the risk factors of DFS. Results: A total of 158 MTC patients were enrolled in final analysis, including 83 females and 75 males, with a median age of 52 (19-74) years. There were 146 cases of sporadic MTC (92.4%) and 12 cases of familial MTC (7.6%), respectively. Bilateral thyroid lesions presented in 33 cases (20.9%) and multiple lesions presented in 57 cases (36.1%), respectively. The median follow-up time was 59.7 (10.0-93.0) months and the median DFS was 55.5 (0-92.9) months. Presence of multifocality, the largest tumor size>2 cm, T3/4, N1b, clinical stage Ⅲ/Ⅳ, lymph node metastasis ratio (LNR)>0.3, preoperative calcitonin>2 000 ng/L, postoperative calcitonin>40 ng/L and no biochemical cure were significantly correlated with the recurrence or metastasis and DFS of MTC (all P<0.05). Clinical stage Ⅲ/Ⅳ (OR=36.57, 95%CI: 1.33-1 006.98, P=0.033), the largest tumor size>2 cm (OR=5.81, 95%CI: 1.01-33.33, P=0.049), multifocality (OR=3.64, 95%CI: 1.03-12.88, P=0.045) and postoperative calcitonin>40 ng/L (OR=15.03, 95%CI: 1.39-162.61, P=0.026) were independent risk factors of recurrence or metastasis. Clinical stage Ⅲ/Ⅳ (HR=19.39, 95%CI:1.40-268.19, P=0.027), the largest tumor size>2 cm (HR=3.64, 95%CI: 1.02-13.02, P=0.047) and postoperative calcitonin>40 ng/L (HR=10.68, 95%CI: 1.34-84.95, P=0.025) were influencing factors for DFS (all P<0.05). Conclusion: The larger tumor size, advanced clinical stage and higher postoperative calcitonin at the initial treatment of MTC are risk factors for recurrence or metastasis and influencing factors for DFS.
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