Conflict Spillover Research Articles

Interparental conflict spillover: Examining parental depression risk pathways.

Interparental conflict spillover: Examining parental depression risk pathways.

Third-party countries in cyber conflict: Public opinion and conflict spillover in cyberspace

The transnational nature of cyberspace alters the role of third-party countries (TPCs) in international conflict. In the conventional environment, military operations are primarily confined to the boundaries of the combatants or a designated war zone. However, during cyber conflicts, operations may occur on the digital infrastructure of states not otherwise involved in the dispute. Nevertheless, within the cyber conflict literature, little is said about TPCs who, by virtue of interconnectivity, may find themselves involved in a conflict not of their own making. Consequently, we examine the political and diplomatic hazards of cyber operations involving these actors. Through survey experiments involving participants from the United Kingdom and Canada, we assess the public opinion impact of an offensive cyber operation’s revelation on a TPC population. We find that while these incidents are viewed negatively, prior authorization and the involvement of an ally reduces this tendency. Such conditions lead the public to perceive these operations as corresponding with their national interest while suppressing fears of the possible consequences following their indirect involvement.

부하 상사 간 관계 갈등에 대한 업무 갈등과 감성지능의 상호작용 연구

This study investigates the moderating role of emotional intelligence (EI) in the spillover of task conflict into relationship conflict in subordinate-supervisor relationships. Grounded in the ability-based EI model, the research focuses on the emotion management ability of subordinates. Data were collected from 113 employees through an online survey, followed by hierarchical regression analysis. Findings revealed a significant negative relationship between EI and relationship conflict. Additionally, a significant positive link was observed between task conflict and relationship conflict. Emotional intelligence significantly moderates this relationship, with higher EI attenuating the spillover effect of task conflict on relationship conflict. In summary, employees with higher EI effectively manage interpersonal conflicts with their supervisors, fostering constructive interactions. Furthermore, subordinates’ EI acts as a buffering moderator, preventing task conflict from transforming into relationship conflict. This research offers practical implications and suggests avenues for future inquiry.

The North Sea and Svalbard Fisheries Management Regimes in the Context of Brexit: Divergence and Implications

The North Sea fishery has maintained sound and stable cooperative management over the past four decades. European Union (EU) countries exchange quotas with Norway for fish stocks in their respective fisheries jurisdictions within the framework of the EU Common Fisheries Policy (EU CFP) and the Agreement on Fisheries between the European Economic Community and the Kingdom of Norway. After beginning the Brexit process with a concomitant transitional arrangement, the United Kingdom remained in the EU CFP until the end of 2020. From 2021 onward, the United Kingdom became a completely independent coastal state outside the EU CFP framework. In this context, the long-standing and stable fisheries access and quota exchange system between Norway and the EU will face tensions. The differences among the United Kingdom, the EU and Norway in fisheries also involve quotas and access to the Svalbard Protection Zone. Norway even intends to expand the fisheries conflict to the Arctic Council. To prevent the adverse consequences of conflict spillover and to achieve sustainable development of fisheries and win–win cooperation in fisheries management, the United Kingdom, the EU and Norway launched a series of actions on fisheries issues. In tripartite negotiations, each party has its advantages. Ultimately, win–win cooperation in the fisheries game is the three parties’ expected outcome.

Conflict Contagion: How Interdependence Shapes Patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Polycentric Systems

Abstract In this article, we bridge and extend concepts from behavioral game theory and the Ecology of Games Theory of Polycentricity (EGT) to test possible mechanisms for conflict contagion across the array of actors and policy forums that constitute a polycentric governance system. We argue that actors who experience conflict in one forum will develop similar strategies in other forums, which then impacts the level of conflict exhibited in within-forum interactions. This behavioral spillover of conflict is a different mechanism than conflict that might be experienced when two forums are addressing the same policy issue(s), which may be characterized by higher or lower levels of conflict. We use survey data collected in the Tampa Bay (FL) and California Delta (CA) water governance systems to examine conflict contagion across forums. Using a series of spatial autoregressive models, we find evidence that co-membership networks serve as a conduit for conflict contagion among forums. Our results show that forum deliberations can be strongly impacted by interactions from other institutions and processes. Consistent with the idea of path dependence, “new” forums are not necessarily independent of the forums they replace, but rather, preexisting levels of conflict and cooperation may constrain available outcomes.

Democracy and the Transnational Dimensions of Low-Level Conflict and State Repression

AbstractThis paper examines the transnational dimensions of low-level conflict and state repression. In this regard, special emphasis is placed on the role of political regimes. Drawing on a simple model, we argue that democracy has opposing effects on conflict intensity. On one hand, democracy satisfies demand for political participation and thus reduces conflict potential, while, on the other hand, we highlight that domestic democracy may spur dissatisfaction and conflict abroad, which, in turn, may induce conflict spillovers. As a result, the net effect of democracy on low-level conflict and state repression is ambiguous and depends on the level of democracy in the neighborhood: We predict that democracy is more pacifying in democratic environments and may spur conflict in autocratic environments. By the symmetry of the model, we also predict that democratic environments are more pacifying for democratic countries and may spur conflict in autocracies. Empirical evidence using panel data on different types of low-level conflict and state repression for 160 countries in the period from 1950 to 2011 supports these hypotheses. Additionally, two case studies illustrate the mechanisms of our model.

Explaining Heterogeneity of Daily Conflict Spillover in the Family: The Role of Dyadic Marital Conflict Patterns.

In this multi‐informant, longitudinal, daily diary study, we investigated whether long‐term dyadic patterns of marital conflict resolution explain the heterogeneity in short‐term day‐to‐day cross‐lagged associations between marital conflict intensity and mother–adolescent conflict intensity. The sample consisted of 419 adolescents (44.6% girls, M age = 13.02, SD = 0.44, at T1; M age = 17.02, SD = 0.44, at T5), their mothers (N = 419, M age = 44.48, SD = 4.17, at T1), and their fathers (N = 419, M age = 46.76, SD = 4.99, at T1). Mothers and fathers reported on their marital conflict resolution strategies annually across 5 years. Mother–father daily conflict intensity (mother‐reported) and mother–adolescent daily conflict intensity (mother‐ and adolescent‐reported) were assessed for 75 days across 5 years. We hypothesized that long‐term marital conflict resolution patterns would moderate the short‐term daily dynamics of conflict between the marital and the mother–adolescent dyads. Latent Class Growth Analysis revealed four types of families based on long‐term dyadic marital conflict resolution, including families where mostly constructive or mostly destructive conflict resolution was used. Dynamic Structural Equation Modeling was used to investigate the daily levels and short‐term daily dynamics of conflict, revealing that for most families there were no day‐to‐day lagged associations between marital conflict and mother–adolescent conflict. Results showed that long‐term conflict resolution patterns did not moderate the short‐term dynamics of daily conflict. However, differences among long‐term marital conflict resolution patterns were found in the levels of daily conflict, such that in families with long‐term destructive conflict resolution patterns, daily conflict intensity was higher.

The Great Wall of Turkey: From „The Open-Door Policy” to Building Fortress?

Following outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Turkey recorded an unprecedented inflow of migrants from its southern neighbourhood. The policy of opened borders in the initial years of war contrasted to securitization, the search for international support and other similar policies, which countries usually adopt in cases of migration crises. However, rising numbers of Syrian migrants, the deterioration of Turkish relations with the Assad government and the engagement of the Kurds as another important party in the Syrian conflict resulted in the switch of the Turkish border policy. In 2014, President Erdoğan initiated the construction of over 800 km long barrier on the border with Syria with an aim to build similar fenced walls on the Iraqi and Iranian border in 2017. Main aim of this paper is to analyze the development of the Turkish border policy (particularly concerning the border with Syria) in the aftermath of the 2011 events in the Middle East and identify factors, which led up to the shift from the policy of welcoming to the policy of building „Fortress Turkey”. The first part of the paper will briefly summarize Turkish migration policy and focus on presenting the change of the initial ‘open’ approach to migration from Syria into the current state of building fences in the borderland. Subsequently, the paper will deal with selected factors, which might have caused this phenomenon. These include spread of terrorism and inflow of the Daesh fighters, who were using soft border regime to diffuse their activities to the Turkish territory; increase in smuggling and cross-border illegal trade; fears from the conflict spillover; but also territorial integrity concerns with regard to revival of the Kurdish activities in the region .

When work comes home: technology-related pressure and home support

ABSTRACTGiven the prevalence of workers bringing work home, issues arising from this practice are a central concern of human resource development (HRD) researchers and practitioners. This study investigates factors related to home boundary permeability (the extent to which one’s home domain is interrupted by work-related matters). Specifically, we examine the impact of technology-related pressure on home boundary permeability, and test both positive and negative consequences of home boundary permeability, along with the role of home support. Based on quantitative data from 267 full-time employees in the Midwestern United States, we found technology-related pressure predicted home boundary permeability, even after accounting for a person’s preference for work–home segmentation. Our findings suggest that high home boundary permeability may be a double-edged sword as it was significantly associated with both greater work-to-home conflict and positive spillover. Further, home support was found to play a buffering role in the relationship between home boundary permeability and work-to-home conflict. Suggestions for how HRD and management practitioners can help employees achieve a healthy balance between work and home are offered.

The European Union’s Engagement in Conflict Processes and Conflict Spillovers: The Case of Lebanon Since the Onset of the Syrian War

The article explores the European Union’s (EU) conflict response to Lebanon in the wake of Syria’s war and its spillover effects. Seeking to boost the polity’s ‘resilience’, the EU has deployed resources and strategies to stabilize the country, enhance its social cohesion and promote ‘effective governance’. The EU has furthermore integrated Lebanon in its broader response to the outcomes of the Arab uprisings and the Syrian conflict. While the EU has become more attuned to Lebanon’s conflict environment, it has had limited effectiveness in handling Lebanon’s conflict processes against the benchmark of its declared goals. The EU’s realist-normative dilemmas and inability to address Lebanon’s core issues of contention emerge as constraining factors. The bloc is more effective in mitigating short-term strains through cooperating with the government on convergent interests such as security and refugee governance than playing an impactful role in conflict resolution.

The Ukraine crisis moves north. Is Arctic conflict spill-over driven by material interests?

ABSTRACTThe Ukraine crisis has led to tensions between Russia and the western states and the Arctic is one of the affected regions. Regional cooperation, institutions, and international law are essential for Arctic governance, and the crisis may thus have wide-ranging consequences for high north politics. The present article develops an interest-based model of Arctic conflict spill-over and examines its strength, based on a case-study of the first 18 months of the Ukraine crisis. Three hypotheses for Arctic conflict spill-over are developed: Arctic conflict spill-over will be less severe than spill-over in other regions, the western states will be more assertive than Russia, and the smaller Arctic states will be less assertive than the larger states. A review of the crisis confirms the bulk of these hypotheses with some exceptions, thus demonstrating that an interests-based model holds some merit, while also showing that a complete understanding of Arctic conflict spill-over necessitates a broader approach. The article concludes that conflict spillover is unlikely, but not impossible, in the Arctic.

Impact of the transnationalization of the Syrian civil war on Turkey: conflict spillover cases of ISIS and PYD-YPG/PKK

This article examines how Turkey was affected by the conflict spillover effects of the Syrian civil war and its escalation in the last two years with the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) threat and the changing nature of the Kurdish insurgency. It seeks to assess the degree of the transnationalization of the Syrian civil war and its spread to Turkey by employing a theoretical framework borrowed from the conflict clustering literature. The first part will introduce the dual-embedded theoretical framework with its division of conflict spillover effects as “intentional” and “unintentional”. The second part tries to apply this dual-track framework to the Turkish case and, thus, seeks to test the conflict spillover factors on Turkey. The third part focuses on the two specific and major spillovers of the Syrian civil war, the ISIS threat and the rise of an embedded Kurdish insurgency, namely Democratic Union Party (PYD or Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat)-Peoples Protection Units (Yekîneyên Parastina Gel or YPG)/Kurdistan Workers Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê or PKK), and explains the conflict spillover processes of these two case studies under a triple framework, origin, diffusion and escalation and with reference to the division between intentional and unintentional spillover effects.

Fluid Sovereignty: State–Nature Relations in the Hasbani Basin, Southern Lebanon

The concept of fluid sovereignty denotes configurations of state authority in which flows of living and nonliving things, within and across borders, render insecure claims of unconditional territorial control. Loss of monopoly control of the means of violence within a territory conventionally signals weak political sovereignty. Bordering Israel (including the occupied Golan Heights) and Syria, the Hasbani Basin in southern Lebanon seems to exemplify such sovereign failings: Over decades, rival security providers have provoked political instability and conflict in the region. Fluid sovereignty, however, brings to the fore state–nature relations neglected in scholarship on “fragile” or “failing” states. Informed by geographical work on hybrid sovereignties and vital materialism, we show how sovereign claims over the Hasbani Basin extend to (sub)terranean water sources and rainfall-dependent agricultural lands, both of which are deeply securitized. Incomplete centralization and territorialization by Lebanon of the Hasbani Basin evinces fractured state nature—the inability of the state to realize volumetric control of, and authority over, basin waters. This state nature is coproduced by the fluid materiality of the waters themselves, whose hydroclimatic circulation and contingencies are at odds with territorial designs for volumetric control. For rural communities in the Hasbani Basin economically dependent on access to agricultural water, field research reveals a practical experience of fluid sovereignty, both in adapting to water variability and also in navigating use of agricultural borderlands subject to conflict-related dangers. Recent conflict spillovers from the Syrian war have reinforced, for the majority Druze population, the low legitimacy of Lebanese state nature.

Dangerous lessons

Contemporary research on the international diffusion of civil conflict privileges physical, proximity-based variables like conflict spillover and refugee flows. I argue that the international diffusion of civil strife can occur through a learning mechanism, and that this phenomenon may occur on a worldwide basis. Individuals most likely to rebel, or proto-rebels, may learn about the utility of rebellion before mobilizing and violently challenging the state. Such international learning therefore occurs during the pre-conflict process. International sources by which proto-rebels learn include active, ongoing civil wars, as well as revolutionary governments that have been founded by rebels victorious in past wars. Revolutionary governments radically shock the international system, teaching proto-rebels about the possible benefits to be gained from violently challenging the state. In order to test these assertions, I undertake empirical analyses using militant organization data that capture the year in which rebel movements first emerge, during the period 1968–2001. I then explore the spatial and temporal relationships between rebel movement emergence, civil conflict, and revolutionary regimes, using the country-year as my unit of analysis. I further examine how these relationships are attenuated by cultural and regime-type similarity. I find, in line with the literature, that active civil conflicts generally inspire rebel mobilization only in directly neighboring states, while revolutionary regimes established after rebel victories are associated with mobilization on a global basis. I conclude that proto-rebels learn and take inspiration from some global sources of information, and that significant analytical utility is to be gained by focusing on revolutionary regimes established as a result of rebel victories, as well as mobilization in the pre-conflict process.

Interparental conflict and adolescents' self-representations: The role of emotional insecurity

Adolescents' signs of emotional insecurity in the context of interparental conflict (IC) – emotional reactivity, internal representations (i.e., constructive/destructive; spillover) and behavioral responses (i.e., withdrawal; inhibition; involvement) – were examined as mediators in the relation between IC and adolescents' self-representations. Self-reported measures were filled out by 221 Portuguese adolescents (59.3% girls; Mage = 12.91), attending public elementary and secondary schools. IC predicted less favorable self-representations. Adolescents' emotional reactivity and withdrawal mediated the relation between IC and emotional and physical appearance self-representations, while conflict spillover representations and constructive family representations mediated associations between IC and instrumental self-representations. This study emphasizes the importance of interparental conflict and adolescent emotional insecurity in the construction of their self-representations, having important theoretical and practical implications. It highlights the value of analyzing the specific role of several emotional insecurity dimensions, and informs practitioners' work aimed at promoting constructive conflict and adaptive emotional regulation skills.

At the Intersection of Work and Nonwork Lives: Crossover Effects and Episodic Events

Recognizing the importance of both work and family on employee attitudes and behaviors, management scholars have extensively studied the negative (i.e., conflict) spillover between these two domain...

Marital Hostility, Hostile Parenting, and Child Aggression: Associations From Toddlerhood to School Age

The spillover hypothesis suggests that childhood aggression results from spillover of interparental conflict to poor parenting, which promotes aggressive child behavior. This study was designed to examine the spillover hypothesis in non-genetically related parent-child dyads from the toddler period through age 6 years. A sample of 361 sets of children, adoptive parents, and birth parents from the Early Growth and Development Study (EGDS) was assessed from child age 9 months to 6 years on measures of adoptive parent financial strain, antisocial traits, marital hostility, hostile parenting, and child aggression. Structural equation modeling was used to examine links from financial strain, parent antisocial traits, and marital hostility in infancy and toddlerhood to hostile parenting and child aggression at ages 4.5 and 6 years. Spillover of marital conflict from child age 18 to 27 months was associated with more parental hostility in mothers and fathers at 27 months. In turn, adoptive fathers' parental hostility, but not mothers', was associated with aggression in children at age 4.5 years. However, there was no significant spillover from hostile parenting at 4.5 years to child aggression at 6 years. Birth mother antisocial traits were unassociated with child aggression. This study is the first to examine spillover of marital hostility to parenting to child aggression from toddlerhood through age 6 years in an adoption design, highlighting the impact of these environmental factors from the toddler to preschool period. The findings support the potential benefit of early identification of marital hostility.

The geographical spillover of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Anecdotal accounts of the geographical spread of war inevitably involve Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. But is conflict spillover effectively stronger in SSA than elsewhere? To answer this question, we estimate models of civil war onset comparing SSA against the rest of the world (RoW). We find that in SSA a neighbour at war increases the probability of civil war onset by at least 1%. This is not negligible, considering that the unconditional probability of civil war onset is 1.1% in the global sample and 1.5% in the SSA sample. The spillover effect in the RoW is three times smaller than in SSA and, in general, statistically not different from zero. The results are robust to changes in the definition of neighbourhood and the inclusion of regional variables in the estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Finally, we provide evidence that refugee inflows and the artificial separation of ethnic groups explain part, but not all, of the spillover effect in SSA.

Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers

We apply panel estimation methods to test how the incidence of war in neighbourhood countries affects the incidence of war in the domestic country. This study finds positive and significant evidence of “spatial conflict spillover”: higher incidence in the neighbourhood increases domestic country involvement in war. We also provide some new evidence on other correlates of war. Particularly interesting are the results concerning the effect of democracy. An increase in the level of democracy increases the incidence of interstate war and reduces the incidence of civil war. However, this latter effect kicks in only past a certain initial level of democracy.

Spillover of interpersonal conflicts from work into nonwork: A daily diary study.

[Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 20(3) of Journal of Occupational Health Psychology (see record 2015-15847-001). There was a misspelling in the figures. The legends for Figure 1 and Figure 2 should read "High Daily Resilience".] This study among a heterogeneous sample of employees expands the Job-Demands (JD-R) theory by examining how interpersonal conflicts at work-task and relationship conflict-spillover into the nonwork domain on a daily basis. We hypothesized that daily personal resources can buffer the daily negative spillover of interpersonal conflicts from work into the nonwork domain. A total of 113 employees (n = 565 occasions) filled in a daily diary questionnaire in the evening before bedtime over 5 consecutive working days. Results of multilevel analysis showed that the presence of daily personal resources is essential to buffer the spillover of interpersonal conflict at work to the nonwork domain. Specifically, on days that employees were not very optimistic or resilient, interpersonal conflicts resulted in higher strain-based work-life conflict experiences. These findings contribute to the JD-R theory and show how the unfavorable effects of daily interpersonal conflicts in the work domain may be avoided in the nonwork domain through enhancing personal resources. We discuss the implications for theory and practice. (PsycINFO Database Record