Multiplier Effect Research Articles

Population Distribution Forecasting Based on the Fusion of Spatiotemporal Basic and External Features: A Case Study of Lujiazui Financial District

Predicting the distribution of people in the time window approaching a disaster is crucial for post-disaster assistance activities and can be useful for evacuation route selection and shelter planning. However, two major limitations have not yet been addressed: (1) Most spatiotemporal prediction models incorporate spatiotemporal features either directly or indirectly, which results in high information redundancy in the parameters of the prediction model and low computational efficiency. (2) These models usually incorporate certain basic and external features, and they can neither change spatiotemporal addressed features according to spatiotemporal features nor change them in real-time according to spatiotemporal features. The spatiotemporal feature embedding methods for these models are inflexible and difficult to interpret. To overcome these problems, a lightweight population density distribution prediction framework that considers both basic and external spatiotemporal features is proposed. In the study, an autoencoder is used to extract spatiotemporal coded information to form a spatiotemporal attention mechanism, and basic and external spatiotemporal feature attention is fused by a fusion framework with learnable weights. The fused spatiotemporal attention is fused with Resnet as the prediction backbone network to predict the people distribution. Comparison and ablation experimental results show that the computational efficiency and interpretability of the prediction framework are improved by maximizing the scalability of the spatiotemporal features of the model by unleashing the scalability of the spatiotemporal features of the model while enhancing the interpretability of the spatiotemporal information as compared to the classical and popular spatiotemporal prediction frameworks. This study has a multiplier effect and provides a reference solution for predicting population distributions in similar regions around the globe.

Long‐run Effects of Austerity: An Analysis of Size Dependence and Persistence in Fiscal Multipliers

Long‐run Effects of Austerity: An Analysis of Size Dependence and Persistence in Fiscal Multipliers

The service trade with AI and energy efficiency: Multiplier effect of the digital economy in a green city by using quantum computation based on QUBO modeling

This research examines the energy efficiency of city districts through the Malmquist–DEA model and investigates the spatial effects of the service trade and the digital economy on energy efficiency in urban green development. The study also delves into the specific context of the AI service trade to gain insights into and align with the emerging digital intelligence industry. The interplay of the service trade with the digital economy, alongside the AI service trade with innovation, significantly enhances urban energy efficiency and demonstrates positive externalities. Building on the empirical findings, this research employs cluster analysis to explore the green development of city districts and uses AI technology to program green communication and cooperation mechanisms across district clusters, employing quantum computation based on QUBO modeling. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the cofunction of the service trade and the digital economy in terms of energy efficiency and aids in developing new quality productivities for green cities through quantum-based AI advancements. This research has clear implications for cutting-edge interdisciplinary applications of green AI technologies in social computing science.

Is Keynesianism still increasingly relevant? The importance of the economic multiplier

Cyclically, the debate on Keynes’ economic policies reemerge. The economic impact of the pandemic caused by COVID-19 has relaunched the discussion about the importance of Keynesian policies, the multipliers effects, and their impact on stimulating economies. This paper aims to analyze the importance and relevance of the Keynesian multiplier before the pandemic, in a period without experiencing exceptional aggregate shocks. The main focus of the research is to examine the shortcomings of the public investment multiplier, which plays a central role in Keynesian theory. Despite the undeniable relevance of the concept, the issue is to understand the extent to which the multiplier is still relevant in specific contexts. The research presents empirical evidence which suggests that the effects of public investment depend on structural characteristics of economies specifically trade liberalization, the dimension of internal markets, the question of countries having the freedom to issue their currency, and the issue of currencies being accepted as an international reserve. A sample of 35 OECD countries was used for the period 2010–2018. The Keynesian public investment multiplier was calculated for several countries and the obtained values were related to various correlations carried out to assess the relationship between public investment, national income, and specific characteristics of the economies to which the multipliers are sensitive. The results obtained contrast in terms of short-term and long-term impacts so, is at least dubious, that one can rely on Keynesian public policies to boost economies at least in the absence of substantial shocks to aggregate demand.

Are post-communist countries paying increased healthcare costs because of risky behaviour?

Abstract Background Based on the annual Country Health Profiles, we can see the difference in population behaviour across EU countries and the associated health risks. At first glance, the so-called post-communist countries are characterised by above-average per-capita harmful consumption of sin goods, alcohol and tobacco. Is this harmful consumption associated with increased healthcare costs? Methods The idea of the study is based on balanced panel-data published in Country Health Profiles. The member countries were divided into groups based on their health risk scores - high risk (above average), and low risk (below average). The group of countries with high risk is mostly composed of post-communist countries. The detailed per-capita annual data for the period 2013-2021 was collected, such as GDP, consumption of sin goods, alcohol, and tobacco. The analysis is based on fixed-effects linear regression models, following recent recommendations on suppressing the excessive role of statistical-inference tools. Results We built various models for different groups of countries, and in this abstract, we present results for the group of post-communist countries - a simple model of harmful consumption (sin goods, GDP) and a more complex model (alcohol, tobacco, GDP). The results show that in the case of the post-communist countries group, for a fixed level of GDP per capita, higher consumption of sin goods by EUR 1 per capita corresponds with total healthcare expenditures higher by EUR 0.244 per capita. For a fixed level of GDP per capita and tobacco consumption per capita, higher consumption of alcohol by EUR 1 per capita corresponds with total healthcare expenditures higher by EUR 1.367 per capita. Conclusions Harmful consumption has a multiplier effect in the health sector; besides direct impact, it influences an increase in healthcare expenditures. More emphasis should be placed on prevention and awareness of consumers to reduce harmful consumption. Key messages • For fixed GDP per capita, higher harmful consumption corresponds with higher healthcare costs in post-communist countries. • For fixed GDP per capita and tobacco consumption per capita, a €1 higher alcohol consumption corresponds with more than €1 higher healthcare expenditure in the post-communist countries.

SELF-HELP GROUPS: A TRANSFORMATIVE FORCE FOR WOMEN’S SOCIAL STATUS

Women constitute around fifty percent of the total human resources in our economy. Yet women are the more poor and under privileged than men as they are subject to many socio-economic and cultural constraints. The situation is more severe in the rural and backward areas. Women development activities must be given importance to eradicate poverty, increase the economic growth and for better standard of living. Self Help Group (SHGs)-Bank Linkage Programme is emerging as a cost effective mechanism for providing financial services to the “Unreached Poor” which has been successful not only in meeting financial needs of the rural poor women but also strengthen collective self help capacities of the poor ,leading to their empowerment. Rapid progress in SHG formation has now turned into an empowerment movement among women across the country (Tiyas biswas, 2007). Investing in women brings about a multiplier effect. Stories of women who not only are better off economically as a result of access to financial services, but who are empowered as well. Simply getting cash into the hands of women (by way of working capital) can lead to increased self-esteem, control and empowerment by helping them achieve greater economic independence and security, which in turn gives them the chance to contribute financially to their households and communities because women “tend to keep nothing back for themselves they contribute decisively to the well-being of their families”(Susy Cheston and Lisa Kuhn, 2002).SHG by mobilizing women around thrift and credit activities have resulted in economic self reliance there by changing their social attitude and status in the family and society SHG has emerged as a key programming strategy for most of the women development activities. Key words: Bank Linkage Programme ,Empowerment, Financial Services, Self Help Group, Socio-Economic.

Heterogeneous biased expectations of young and old individuals: macroeconomic effects and policy implications

Abstract This paper examines the effects of heterogeneous biased expectations between the young and old on business cycles and explores its policy implications. Empirical findings reveal that individuals, particularly the young, can have more optimistic or pessimistic views about the future state of the economy compared to the data-generating measure. This study relates these results to the learning-from-experience literature, which suggests that individuals, particularly the young, place greater weight on recent observations when forming their expectations. Incorporating household weighting schemes into a life-cycle learning model, I show that household sensitivity to recent observations amplifies the effects of economic shocks. However, the amplification effects become less extensive as the population ages due to the lower sensitivity of the old. My simulation results indicate that a 10 percentage point increase in the old population ratio leads to a 16 percent decrease in output volatility. Regarding policy implications, this paper suggests that the government spending multiplier declines by approximately 10 percent when the old population ratio rises by 10 percentage points due to weak amplification effects. Moreover, the weakened output effects deteriorate the welfare of the population, particularly that of the young.

Impact of investments in mining on economic growth of Krasnoyarsk Krai

Aim. To evaluate the impact of investments in mineral extraction on the economic growth of Krasnoyarsk Krai using the dynamics of data for 2004–2021.Objectives. To prepare initial data for modeling in comparable prices; to build statistical models with a time lag; to determine the multiplier and gas pedal coefficients of investment; to demonstrate the possibilities of applying the obtained dependencies.Methods. The authors used the method of economic and mathematical modeling, in particular the calculation of socio-economic indicators using mathematical statistics. The regression model was built using the initial data that meet the requirements of comparability and homogeneity, are relevant and statistically reliable.Results. Dependencies reflecting the investment multiplier effect, i.e. the increase in the gross regional product (GRP) and the volume of shipped products in response to the increase in investment in mining were obtained. Dependencies reflecting the investment gas pedal effect are also obtained, showing how increased income affects the size of investment. The dependencies are applied to solve a number of practical problems.Conclusions. It has been established that investments in mining in Krasnoyarsk Krai have an impact on the growth of GRP and the volume of shipped products. The return on investment has a temporary character. The strongest impact of investments in the current year have on the growth of GRP and shipped products for the next year. The multiplier coefficient is 2.72. Increased income affects the size of investments: the growth of income from mining stimulates the growth of induced investments in the following year with the multiplier coefficient, which is equal to 0.14. The comparison of actual values of investments in mineral resources extraction and volume of shipped products with the target values laid down in the Strategy of socioeconomic development of the region until 2030 has been carried out. The target values, according to the Strategy, are determined with the help of the obtained dependencies. It was established that the actual volume of investments is sufficient to ensure the GRP growth in accordance with the Strategy at the first stage; to ensure growth at the second stage it is necessary to increase investments by 12–15 % annually; to ensure growth at the third stage it is necessary to increase investments by 9–13 % annually from the current state. In order to ensure the values of indicators on the volume of production provided for in the Strategy, it is necessary to increase output by 4–6 % annually compared to 2021.

Enhancing regional well-being: An assessment of how infrastructure investments affect gross territorial product

The role of infrastructure in promoting regional well-being has gained significant attention. Infrastructure is critical in integrating the regional economy, multiplying economic development, and improving quality of life. Effective decision-making is crucial to maximize the return on these capital investments. This study assesses infrastructure investments’ short-term and long-term impacts. Short-term efficiency is evaluated through the multiplier effect on other sectors, while long-term efficiency focuses on the influence on economic growth. A polynomial model is constructed using regression analysis based on investments in highway construction projects and the corresponding dynamics of gross territorial product in surrounding areas. This model explains the nature of the multiplier impact of transport infrastructure investments. This study significantly contributes to understanding how infrastructure investments can be strategically targeted to enhance economic growth and regional well-being, providing valuable insights for researchers, policymakers, and professionals in economics, urban planning, and infrastructure development.

Social network, sustainable livelihood capital and risk response: an empirical analysis of rural China

ABSTRACT In rural China, farmers who have been “lifted out of poverty” still at risk of returning to poverty. The sustainable livelihood and risk coping ability of farmers are of great significance for rural development, and social networks have a distinctive effect on livelihood and risk coping ability of farmers. Based on full-coverage survey in a village, this paper adopts the entropy weight method, Social Network Analysis, and aims to build a social network model and reveal the impact of social networks on farmer’s livelihood and risk coping ability. The results show that the farmers’ livelihood capital based on social network has a significant amplification. Furthermore, social relationships can directly affect farmers’ ability to cope with livelihood risks. And, for farmers with higher social, information, human and financial capital, the effectiveness of social networks in enhancing their risk coping capacity is more significant. Overall, it is suggested that more attention should be paid to the positive role of social networks on the livelihood in the future. For rural development, social relationship networks should be continuously enriched and to strengthen its multiplier effect on farmers’ livelihood. And for farmer development, it should take measures to improve the mobilising capacity of social relations. And to amplify the effectiveness of various types of livelihood capital in risk response.

A Literature Review of Transportation Logistics Policy Models in the Nusantara Capital City Region to Support National Economic Growth

The purpose of this study is to review and analyze several previous studies theoretically related to 1) The impact of Logistics Transportation Policy and spillover effects on National Economic Growth, 2) Some problems from the implementation of the Logistics Transportation Policy in a region, 3) Logistics Transportation Policy Model that can support National Economic Growth. The method used uses qualitative research, exploratory or interpretative systems with a systematic deductive process (Top-Down), guided by some empirical evidence obtained from the author's experience in the field of transportation and logistics, as well as qualitative interactions with several stakeholders and previous research. The results found are 1) in some countries, logistics policies have succeeded in having a positive impact on regional and national economic growth, 2) the ineffectiveness of a logistics policy is caused by high logistics costs, dysfunctional systems, unsupportive regulations, unsupportive human resources and infrastructure and weak coordination between stakeholders, and 3) a transportation logistics policy model that supports national economic growth must be able to involve stakeholders so that it can have a multiplier effect on the economic sector and national economic growth.

Savings and Sustainable Economic Growth Nexus: A South African Perspective

The savings behavior of individuals has been a topic of both macroeconomic and policy importance throughout history. Theoretical and empirical research shows that savings result from several demographic and economic factors working together to produce long-term, sustainable economic growth. This study therefore examined the nexus between domestic savings and sustainable economic growth in a South African perspective between 1990–2023, emphasizing the critical role that savings play in fostering long-term economic stability and environmental resilience. The ARDL framework was used to analyze data from the World Bank and the South African Reserve Bank. The results of the study demonstrate that corporate savings have a major effect on sustainable economic growth, especially over the long term. When corporate savings rise by 1%, the economy expands by 3.12%, which highlights the significant multiplier effect of investment. The extent of this impact depends on factors such as the efficiency of capital allocation, technological capacity, financial market development, government policies, and macroeconomic stability. These factors collectively determine how effectively corporate savings are transformed into productive investments that drive sustainable economic growth. Conversely, savings made by the government and the public, especially in the long run, have no appreciable impact on sustainable economic growth. Given that domestic savings mobilization is the most suitable channel for financing capital accumulation to support economic growth and development, the study suggests reviewing current policies to encourage domestic savings mobilization. This paper contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable economic policies in emerging markets, offering actionable insights for policymakers, financial institutions, and stakeholders promoting a more sustainable economic future for South Africa.

Cuartel Ophiolite: Structure, timing and exhumation mechanisms for a Cadomian suture zone in the peri-Gondwanan Realm (SW Iberia)

The Cadomian Orogeny formed as an accretionary orogen surrounding Gondwana. The structure resulting from the Cadomian Orogeny is pervasively reworked during the Paleozoic, within the frame of the Variscan Cycle. In SW Iberia (Mina Afortunada Massif), a tectonometamorphic and geochronological analysis revealed two Cadomian deformation phases. The first phase (DC1; 586 Ma, U-Pb dating in inherited metamorphic garnet from Mina Afortunada Gneiss) is associated with ophiolite accretion during the closure of a back-arc or intra-arc basin (Cuartel Ophiolite). A metamorphic fabric related to this phase is preserved as an internal foliation in Ediacaran (meta)sedimentary rocks. The second phase (DC2; 515–485 Ma) is constrained by the age of the igneous protolith of Mina Afortunada Gneiss (∼515 Ma), which is affected by a penetrative foliation formed during DC2, and by the unconformable deposit of Ordovician sediments, which are not affected. The telescoping of metamorphic isograds during DC2 and the geometry of detachment faults associated with this phase suggest extensional tectonics as the driving mechanism for the early exhumation of the Cadomian suture zone in Mina Afortunada Massif. The superimposition of Variscan folds and shear zones onto the Cadomian structures contributed to the subsequent exhumation of the Cadomian suture zone. The analysis and reconstruction of Cadomian and Variscan structures, plus the geochronological data, allow us to correlate the Cuartel Ophiolite with the Mérida Ophiolite, being two pieces of the same, yet dismembered, Cadomian suture zone. The number of Cadomian suture zones in Gondwana does not coincide with that of Cadomian suture zone exposures. Reworked orogens such as the Cadomian could be subjected to duplication of their suture zones. Assessments regarding the Cadomian paleogeography should consider the multiplier effect of the structural overprints after ophiolite accretion.

Causative factors of Abandoned Urban Housing Projects and Strategies for Revitalization in Ibadan, Nigeria

In Nigeria, over 56,000 projects have been abandoned, leading to negative societal and urban impacts, including wasted investment, job losses, increased crime rates, visual pollution, and disruption of urban planning. These abandoned projects, which include residential, commercial, and industrial buildings, have significant multiplier effects on the construction industry. As the housing sector plays a vital role in a country's economy, the issue of abandoned urban housing projects, particularly in Ibadan, Nigeria’s third-largest city, poses serious challenges. These challenges affect the city’s economic growth, social cohesion, and environmental quality, yet there is limited research addressing the problem. This paper investigated the causes of abandoned housing projects in Ibadan, aiming to find ways to revive them and prevent future abandonment. A structured questionnaire (n=45) was administered to consultants and professionals in the built environment (architects, engineers, quantity surveyors, and builders). Key causes of abandonment were identified, along with impacts such as building dilapidation, environmental decline, and urban visual displeasure. The paper recommended the establishment of regulatory frameworks for periodic inspections of ongoing projects and requiring developers to have exit strategies for financial setbacks. It also emphasized policies that promote repurposing abandoned buildings for public services, such as affordable housing or community centers. The conclusion stressed that without addressing the root causes, urban aesthetics and adequate housing provision will continue to suffer.

How the digital economy enhances the grain supply chain resilience in China: exploring the moderating effects of government innovation-driven

IntroductionEnsuring food security in the new development paradigm urgently requires increasing the grain supply chain resilience. In order to clarify how can significantly enhance grain supply chain resilience, to demonstrate the relationship between the digital economy, government innovation-driven and grain supply chain resilience is necessary. To specify how the government can effectively perform its macro-regulatory functions, the government innovation-driven is reflected by government innovation-driven planning and government innovation-driven investment, respectively.MethodsThe data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021 have been used. The panel fixed effects model, moderating effects model and threshold effects model have been selected to analyze.ResultsDigital economy has a stronger enhancement effect on grain supply chain resilience; Government innovation-driven has an increased moderating effect on digital economy enhance grain supply chain resilience; The enhancement effect of digital economy and the moderating effect of government innovation-driven are differentiated between China’s functional zones of grain production; And the threshold effect of government innovation-driven planning shows a process of digestion and absorption, which accumulating to 0.018 will emerge a multiplier effect. Government innovation-driven investment is higher than 0.026, which can have a promoted moderating effect.DiscussionTo expand the depth of integration of the digital economy, accurately government innovation-driven, the focus should be on attracting innovative talent, who can construct the perpetual motion machine mode of “external promote + internal drive,” so as to strengthen the robustness of the grain supply chain.

The economic impact of dry port investment in Indonesia: A case study of Bangil, Pasuruan District, East Java Province

Acknowledging the pivotal role of ports and dry ports in shaping a nation’s economic landscape, this study explores the economic impact of port development in East Java, specifically Bangil Dry Port in Pasuruan over at least 30 years of business operational process. This study pioneers the quantification of gross value added, investment multiplier effect, tax contribution, and Creating Shared Value (CSV) resulting from dry port investment. The method used for calculating multiplier investment is Keynesian multiplier approach and for labor absorption is Incremental Labor Output Ratio (ILOR). Field surveys were conducted to determine the condition of Bangil, and secondary data on the growth of container flows at Port of Tanjung Perak was used as a reference for growth in Bangil. Overall, these results show that Bangil Dry Port investment will generates positive impact both for government and society in general, but also the economy of East Java and Pasuruan District in particular. These results offer practical guidance for decision-makers in optimizing public funds allocation, while also laying the groundwork for future scholars to conduct comprehensive societal-scale cost-benefit analyses of strategic port investments, contributing to a deeper understanding of the economic implications.

Measuring Regional Competitiveness Through The Regional Development Index

This research aims to conduct an analysis focusing on measuring the level of regional competitiveness by utilizing the regional development index as a measure of regional development performance in Luwu Raya. This measurement examines several indicators considered influential, namely economic, social, infrastructure, and environmental aspects. The sample in this research includes all regions in Luwu Raya, comprising Palopo City, Luwu Regency, North Luwu Regency, and East Luwu Regency. The method employed in this research is quantitative analysis using the composite performance index as the analytical technique. The primary steps in constructing a composite index involve weighting, literature studies, trend determination, alternative index determination, and composite index determination. The results reveal that the regional competitiveness in Luwu Raya is unevenly distributed. Palopo City is the region with the highest level of competitiveness, while two regencies, North Luwu and Luwu, have the lowest levels of competitiveness. The most influential aspect of regional competitiveness is infrastructure, as measured by data on the condition of paved roads and clean water distribution. The problem that needs to be addressed in almost all regions of Luwu Raya is poverty. Infrastructure is a pioneering indicator that can have a significant positive or negative impact on development in Luwu Raya. Therefore, it is expected that the government can focus its development policies on infrastructure to provide multiplier effects on economic and social aspects through inclusive economic growth and job creation.

The economic impact of social media marketing: A study of consumer goods in emerging markets

The economic impact of social media marketing on consumer goods in emerging markets has become increasingly significant, driven by rapid digital adoption and the growing influence of online platforms. This study explores how social media marketing strategies employed by consumer goods companies contribute to economic growth in these regions. By leveraging data from various emerging markets, the research examines the role of social media in enhancing brand visibility, consumer engagement, and market penetration. The study highlights the ability of social media to reach vast audiences at relatively low costs, enabling companies to build brand awareness and foster consumer loyalty in markets where traditional advertising channels may be less effective or accessible. Through targeted advertising, influencer partnerships, and interactive campaigns, social media marketing has proven instrumental in driving sales and expanding market share for consumer goods companies. This, in turn, has stimulated local economies by increasing consumer spending, creating jobs, and encouraging competition. Furthermore, the study discusses the multiplier effect of social media marketing on economic development, particularly in how it helps local businesses integrate into the global economy. By providing a platform for smaller companies to compete with established brands, social media has democratized access to markets and facilitated the growth of entrepreneurial ventures in emerging economies. However, the study also acknowledges the challenges and limitations of social media marketing in these contexts, such as digital divides, varying levels of internet penetration, and the need for culturally sensitive content. The findings underscore the importance of adapting social media strategies to the specific characteristics of emerging markets to maximize their economic impact. In conclusion, social media marketing has become a powerful tool for driving economic growth in emerging markets by enhancing brand presence, increasing consumer demand, and fostering competitive business environments. As digital ecosystems continue to evolve, the role of social media in shaping economic landscapes in these regions is expected to expand further, offering significant opportunities for consumer goods companies and local economies alike.

Review of the monograph Strategizing of the Tourism and Trade Show Industries in the Russian Far East

The collective monograph Strategizing of the Tourism and Trade Show Industries in the Russian Far East was prepared by a team of young scientists from the Economic and Financial Strategy Department dealing with designing and developing the theoretical foundations and practice of strategizing at the level of enterprises, industries, regions, and countries of the world. The presented scientific publication develops an up-to-date comprehensive interdisciplinary study of the tourism industry as an "aggregated" branch of the economy, covering more than 110 related industries and having a significant multiplier effect. The object of the analysis is the Russian Far East, a huge geographical space characterized by significant imbalances in socio–economic development, which determine the starting conditions for involvement of the rich natural and recreational potential of the Far Eastern territories in the tourist turnover. The uniqueness and practical significance of the monograph is that it formulates theoretical and methodological foundations for strategizing the tourism industry and exhibition and fair activities, based on the universal theory of strategy and methodology of strategizing by V.L. Kvint, a foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, taking into account the industry specifics of the object of strategizing. Furthermore, the work presents a comprehensive analysis of resource support for tourism development in the said territory.

Assessing the Multiplier Effect of National Parks: A Case Study of Buiratau State National Nature Park in Kazakhstan

Assessing the Multiplier Effect of National Parks: A Case Study of Buiratau State National Nature Park in Kazakhstan