Spatial Pattern Of Land-use Change Research Articles

Towards sustainable food crop production: Drivers of shift from crop production to mining activities in Ghana's Arable Lands

This study contributes to the observed reduction of arable lands discourse by examining the shift in land use patterns as well as factors influencing farmers' shift from crop production to mining activities. To achieve this, we employed a combination of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and Cragg's Double Hurdle Econometric Model as analytical tools. Our approach integrates an econometric model of land use with GIS simulations that predict the spatial pattern of land-use change. The results revealed that crop production lands have been converted into artisanal small-scale mining (galamsey) sites, a development which has implications on food security, life on land and effective utilizations of land and water resources. The results also showed that membership in Farmer-Based Organizations (FBOs), access to credit, and low yield of food crops influenced farmers to shift from crop production to participate in mining activities. In addition, the extent of participation in mining was influenced by family size, membership in FBOs, and low crop yield. While mining operations offer substantial economic benefits, it is crucial to strike a balance between land use for mining activities and food crop production. This is because it has the potential to worsen recent hikes in food prices and subsequently leading to rising inflation rates in Ghana. Our findings have implications on achieving multiple SDGs, viz. SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and SDG 15 (Life on Land) as minimizing illegal mining helps increase food production as well as protect water bodies and land. We therefore suggest that government should take steps to make credit accessible to farmers by collaborating with financial institutions and also collaborate with Crops Research Institutes to develop high-yielding crop varieties. Future research could focus on exploring the impact of participating in mining activities on the profitability of food crop production in Ghana.

Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services in the Wuling Mountains from a Transport Development Perspective.

Transportation significantly affects regional land-use changes and ecosystem service functions. Exploring the correlations among transport development, spatial pattern of land-use changes, and ecosystem service changes are important for mitigating the deterioration of regional ecosystems due to human activities. In this study, 2000-2020 was selected as the study period to explore the effects of land-use changes on the ecosystem service value (ESV) in the Wuling Mountains. The results showed that: (1) the Wuling Mountains have experienced four stages of transport development and (2) transportation development has contributed to land-use change. The spatial pattern associated with construction land growth has evolved due to transport development. Garden land has gradually spread into the entire region with transport development. Policies from different periods have had more of an effect on ecological land and cropland. (3) During the study period, the ESV first increased and then declined. The periphery of the transportation axis formed a concentration zone of ESV cold spots. In contrast, ESV hot spots were more concentrated in areas along the Yangtze River. The results of this study provide guidance for land-use policy and spatial planning under the concept of green development.

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change from Socio-Economic Drivers and Their Impact on Biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand.

The rate of deforestation declined steadily in Thailand since the year 2000 due to economic transformation away from forestry. However, these changes did not occur in Nan Province located in northern Thailand. Deforestation is expected to continue due to high demand for forest products and increased agribusiness. The objectives of this paper are (1) to predict land-use change in the province based on trends, market-based and conservation scenarios, (2) to quantify biodiversity, and (3) to identify biodiversity hotspots at greatest risk for future deforestation. This study used a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) to allocate aggregated land demand for three scenarios and employed FRAGSTATS to determine the spatial pattern of land-use change. In addition, the InVEST Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework was used to estimate biodiversity expressed as the remaining mean species abundance (MSA) relative to their abundance in the pristine reference condition. Risk of deforestation and the MSA values were combined to determine biodiversity hotspots across the landscape at greatest risk. The results revealed that most of the forest cover in 2030 would remain in the west and east of the province, which are rugged and not easily accessible, as well as in protected areas. MSA values are predicted to decrease from 0.41 in 2009 to 0.29, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively, under the trends, market-based and conservation scenarios in 2030. In addition, the low, medium, and high biodiversity zones cover 46, 49 and 6% of Nan Province. Protected areas substantially contribute to maintaining forest cover and greater biodiversity. Important measures to protect remaining cover and maintain biodiversity include patrolling at-risk deforestation areas, reduction of road expansion in pristine forest areas, and promotion of incentive schemes for farmers to rehabilitate degraded ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal patterns and characteristics of land-use change in China during 2010–2015

Land use/cover change is an important theme on the impacts of human activities on the earth systems and global environmental change. National land-use changes of China during 2010–2015 were acquired by the digital interpretation method using the high-resolution remotely sensed images, e.g. the Landsat 8 OLI, GF-2 remote sensing images. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land-use changes across China during 2010–2015 were revealed by the indexes of dynamic degree model, annual land-use changes ratio etc. The results indicated that the built-up land increased by 24.6×103 km2 while the cropland decreased by 4.9×103 km2, and the total area of woodland and grassland decreased by 16.4×103 km2. The spatial pattern of land-use changes in China during 2010–2015 was concordant with that of the period 2000–2010. Specially, new characteristics of land-use changes emerged in different regions of China in 2010–2015. The built-up land in eastern China expanded continually, and the total area of cropland decreased, both at decreasing rates. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland shrinkage were accelerated in central China. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland growth increased in western China, while the decreasing rate of woodland and grassland accelerated. In northeastern China, built-up land expansion slowed continually, and cropland area increased slightly accompanied by the conversions between paddy land and dry land. Besides, woodland and grassland area decreased in northeastern China. The characteristics of land-use changes in eastern China were essentially consistent with the spatial govern and control requirements of the optimal development zones and key development zones according to the Major Function-oriented Zones Planning implemented during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015). It was a serious challenge for the central government of China to effectively protect the reasonable layout of land use types dominated with the key ecological function zones and agricultural production zones in central and western China. Furthermore, the local governments should take effective measures to strengthen the management of territorial development in future.

Transition Modeling of Land-Use Dynamics in the Pipestem Creek, North Dakota, USA

Significant land-use changes in North Dakota have been reported and are widespread over the entire state. Such changing patterns may portend localized impairment to agricultural watersheds. In this study, Land-use Land-cover (LULC) change was modeled using geostatistics. The study area was within the Pipestem Creek watershed, a part of the Missouri Watershed James Subregion of North Dakota, USA. Landsat Thematic mapper images from the years 2007, 2011 and 2015 were used as preliminary data. LULC information for these datasets was acquired from the Global Land-cover facility and Landsat Program. Data analysis, spectral classification and post classification techniques were applied on the datasets. A transition matrix was derived using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model. This study demonstrates that the integration of satellite remote sensing, GIS and statistics may be an effective approach for analyzing the direction, rate, and spatial pattern of land-use change.

Catchment legacies and time lags: a parsimonious watershed model to predict the effects of legacy storage on nitrogen export.

Nutrient legacies in anthropogenic landscapes, accumulated over decades of fertilizer application, lead to time lags between implementation of conservation measures and improvements in water quality. Quantification of such time lags has remained difficult, however, due to an incomplete understanding of controls on nutrient depletion trajectories after changes in land-use or management practices. In this study, we have developed a parsimonious watershed model for quantifying catchment-scale time lags based on both soil nutrient accumulations (biogeochemical legacy) and groundwater travel time distributions (hydrologic legacy). The model accurately predicted the time lags observed in an Iowa watershed that had undergone a 41% conversion of area from row crop to native prairie. We explored the time scales of change for stream nutrient concentrations as a function of both natural and anthropogenic controls, from topography to spatial patterns of land-use change. Our results demonstrate that the existence of biogeochemical nutrient legacies increases time lags beyond those due to hydrologic legacy alone. In addition, we show that the maximum concentration reduction benefits vary according to the spatial pattern of intervention, with preferential conversion of land parcels having the shortest catchment-scale travel times providing proportionally greater concentration reductions as well as faster response times. In contrast, a random pattern of conversion results in a 1:1 relationship between percent land conversion and percent concentration reduction, irrespective of denitrification rates within the landscape. Our modeling framework allows for the quantification of tradeoffs between costs associated with implementation of conservation measures and the time needed to see the desired concentration reductions, making it of great value to decision makers regarding optimal implementation of watershed conservation measures.

Spatiotemporal characteristics, patterns, and causes of land-use changes in China since the late 1980s

Land-use/land-cover changes (LUCCs) have links to both human and nature inter- actions. China's Land-Use/cover Datasets (CLUDs) were updated regularly at 5-year inter- vals from the late 1980s to 2010, with standard procedures based on Landsat TM\ETM+ im- ages. A land-use dynamic regionalization method was proposed to analyze major land-use conversions. The spatiotemporal characteristics, differences, and causes of land-use changes at a national scale were then examined. The main findings are summarized as fol- lows. Land-use changes (LUCs) across China indicated a significant variation in spatial and temporal characteristics in the last 20 years (1990-2010). The area of cropland change de- creased in the south and increased in the north, but the total area remained almost un- changed. The reclaimed cropland was shifted from the northeast to the northwest. The built-up lands expanded rapidly, were mainly distributed in the east, and gradually spread out to central and western China. Woodland decreased first, and then increased, but desert area was the opposite. Grassland continued decreasing. Different spatial patterns of LUC in China were found between the late 20th century and the early 21st century. The original 13 LUC zones were replaced by 15 units with changes of boundaries in some zones. The main spatial characteristics of these changes included (1) an accelerated expansion of built-up land in the

Land-Use Change in Portugal, 1990–2006: Main Processes and Underlying Factors

This article studies the processes of land-use change in Portugal between 1990 and 2006 and analyses the effects of different driving forces in shaping land-use patterns during that period. While urbanization and the abandonment of agricultural land were the most prevalent processes between 1990 and 2000, concurrent processes of land abandonment and agriculture intensification seem to have predominated in recent years. Nevertheless, annual rates of change for all land-use change processes appear to be increasing overall, following a sharp increase in economic growth. The effect of driving forces in shaping land-use change tends to remain stable over time, but the deployment of new infrastructure and the gradual enforcement of spatial planning policies appear to be important factors in dynamically changing spatial patterns of land-use change.

Projecting Land-Use Change and Its Consequences for Biodiversity in Northern Thailand

Rapid deforestation has occurred in northern Thailand over the last few decades and it is expected to continue. The government has implemented conservation policies aimed at maintaining forest cover of 50% or more and promoting agribusiness, forestry, and tourism development in the region. The goal of this paper was to analyze the likely effects of various directions of development on the region. Specific objectives were (1) to forecast land-use change and land-use patterns across the region based on three scenarios, (2) to analyze the consequences for biodiversity, and (3) to identify areas most susceptible to future deforestation and high biodiversity loss. The study combined a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a model for biodiversity assessment (GLOBIO3). The Dyna-CLUE model was used to determine the spatial patterns of land-use change for the three scenarios. The methodology developed for the Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework (GLOBIO 3) was used to estimate biodiversity intactness expressed as the remaining relative mean species abundance (MSA) of the original species relative to their abundance in the primary vegetation. The results revealed that forest cover in 2050 would mainly persist in the west and upper north of the region, which is rugged and not easily accessible. In contrast, the highest deforestation was expected to occur in the lower north. MSA values decreased from 0.52 in 2002 to 0.45, 0.46, and 0.48, respectively, for the three scenarios in 2050. In addition, the estimated area with a high threat to biodiversity (an MSA decrease >0.5) derived from the simulated land-use maps in 2050 was approximately 2.8% of the region for the trend scenario. In contrast, the high-threat areas covered 1.6 and 0.3% of the region for the integrated-management and conservation-oriented scenarios, respectively. Based on the model outcomes, conservation measures were recommended to minimize the impacts of deforestation on biodiversity. The model results indicated that only establishing a fixed percentage of forest was not efficient in conserving biodiversity. Measures aimed at the conservation of locations with high biodiversity values, limited fragmentation, and careful consideration of road expansion in pristine forest areas may be more efficient to achieve biodiversity conservation.

The response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change in four areas of Europe: The importance of landscape pattern

The response of erosion and sediment export to past land-use change has been studied in four agricultural areas of Europe. Three of these areas were subject to land abandonment or de-intensification and one to intensification of land-use practices. Erosion and sediment yield were modeled using the WaTEM/SEDEM model, which combines the RUSLE equation with a sediment routing algorithm. Spatial relationships between the RUSLE C-factor (i.e. land-use) and other erosion and sediment export-determining factors (slope, soil erodibility and distance to rivers) were investigated, as these account for non-linearity in the response of erosion and sediment export to land-use change. Erosion and sediment export have decreased enormously in the de-intensified areas, but slightly increased in the intensively cultivated area. The spatial pattern of land-use change in relation to other erosion and sediment export-determining factors appears to have a large impact on the response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change. That the drivers of abandonment of arable land and erosion coincide indicates that de-intensification leads to a more favourable landscape pattern with respect to reduction of erosion and sediment export. This mechanism applies not only within the study areas, but also among the European study areas where the process of intensification of some areas and de-intensification of others might result in an overall decrease of erosion and sediment yield through time.

Policies for Habitat Fragmentation: Combining Econometrics with GIS-Based Landscape Simulations

<i>Habitat fragmentation is widely considered a primary threat to biodiversity. In this paper, we analyze incentive-based policies designed to reduce forest fragmentation in the coastal plain region of South Carolina. Our approach integrates an econometric model of land use with simulations that predict the spatial pattern of land-use change. We analyze how subsidies for afforestation affect distributions defined over fragmentation metrics and derive the marginal costs of altering landscape patterns. We find the costs of reducing fragmentation vary greatly with initial landscape conditions and that a simple uniform subsidy performs well relative to a more complicated spatially targeted policy.</i> (JEL R14, R52)

Revealing the Driving Forces of Mid-Cities Urban Growth Patterns Using Spatial Modeling: a Case Study of Los Ángeles, Chile

City growth and changes in land-use patterns cause various important social and environmental impacts. To understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of these processes, the factors that drive urban development must be identified and analyzed, especially those factors that can be used to predict future changes and their potential environmental effects. Our objectives were to quantify the relationship between urban growth and its driving forces and to predict the spatial growth pattern based on historical land-use changes for the city of Los Angeles in central Chile. This involved the analysis of images from 1978, 1992, and 1998 and characterization of the spatial pattern of land-use change; the construction of digital coverage in GIS; the selection of predictive variables through univariate analysis; the construction of logistic regression models using growth vs. nongrowth for 1978-1992 as the dependent variable; and the prediction of the probability of land-use change by applying the regression model to the 1992-1998 period. To investigate the influence of spatial scale, we constructed several sets of models that contained (1) only distance variables, e.g., distance to highways; (2) only scale-dependent density variables, e.g., density of urban area within a 600-m radius; (3) both distance and density variables; and (4) both distance and density variables at several spatial scales. The environmental variables were included in all models. The combination of distance and density variables at several scales is required to appropriately capture the multiscale urban growth process. The best models correctly predict ~90% of the observed land-use changes for 1992-1998. The distance to access roads, densities of the urban road system and urbanized area at various scales, and soil type were the strongest predictors of the growth pattern. Other variables were less important or not significant in explaining the urban growth process. Our approach, which combines spatial modeling tools and GIS, significantly advances the understanding of urban growth patterns, provides an important contribution to urban planning and management, and can be applied widely.

Integrating analyses of local land-use regulations, cultural perceptions and land-use/land cover data for assessing the success of community-based conservation

Studies of land-use/land cover change are an important means for examining the viability of community-based programs for forest conservation, although an analysis of the social processes influencing land-use decisions is necessary to understand the factors leading to different conservation outcomes. In this paper, we demonstrate that an analysis of locally recognized land-use rules and regulations embedded in local institutions can inform remote-sensing approaches by helping: (1) to elucidate some of the local perceptions, criteria and interactions with outside agencies that drive conservation actions and (2) to better interpret the spatial patterns of land-use change and forest conservation revealed by remote-sensing data. Based on a case study of a forest ejido from the Maya Zone of Quintana Roo, Mexico, we evaluate changes in forest cover and in local land-use regulations before and after the initiation in the mid-1980s of a community forestry program, the Plan Piloto Forestal (PPF). Methods included development of a time series of land cover maps based on LANDSAT imagery from 1976, 1988, 1991, 1997 and 2000, as well as interviews and participant observation with local farmers and community leaders. Results indicate a high degree of forest conservation on community lands with net rates of forest loss of 0.6–0.7%/year. Locally recognized conservation regulations included a number of forest reserves as well as regulations which protect specific forest types, resulting from both local initiatives and interventions of external agencies. These initiatives included but were not limited to the PPF, highlighting the importance of evaluating community-based conservation programs within a broader historical context. Conservation regulations protecting an important commercial non-timber forest product ( Manilkara zapota) pre-dated the PPF and may have facilitated its implementation. In the most accessible agricultural areas, the only mature forest patches were customary forest reserves and an area regenerated from secondary forests, protected due to enrichment plantings of commercial timbers. Recognition of local Maya terminology used to distinguish forest types was crucial for proper interpretation of local land-use regulations, which revealed that less-valued forest types may not be adequately protected on community lands. We suggest that future research should examine the significance of the less-valued forest types for global biodiversity conservation. In addition careful consideration of the historical antecedents and community institutions which may have facilitated the implementation of the Plan Piloto Forestal will be important for the successful application of this model of community forestry to other socio-economic and cultural contexts.

Land-use change analysis in Yulin prefecture, northwestern China using remote sensing and GIS

Rapid land-use change has taken place in many arid and semi-arid regions of China such as Yulin prefecture over the last decade due to rehabilitation measures. In this paper, land-use change dynamics were investigated by the combined use of satellite remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). Our objectives were to determine land-use transition rates among land-use types in Yulin prefecture over 14 years from 1986-2000 and to quantify the changes of various landscape metrics using FRAGSTATS, the spatial pattern analysis program for Categorical Maps. Using 30-m resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data from the Institute of Remote Sensing Application (IRSA) in China, we classified images into six land-use types: cropland, forestland, grassland, water, urban and/or built-up land, and barren land. Significant changes in land-use occurred within the area over the study period. The results show the significant decrease in barren land was mainly due to conversion to grassland. Cropland increased by 3.39%, associated with conversions from grassland and barren land. The landscape has become more continuous, clumped and more homogeneous. The study demonstrates that the integration of satellite remote sensing and GIS was an effective approach for analysing the direction, rate and spatial pattern of land-use change.

Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995–2000

It is more and more acknowledged that land-use/cover dynamic change has become a key subject urgently to be dealt with in the study of global environmental change. Supported by the Landsat TM digital images, spatial patterns and temporal variation of land-use change during 1995 –2000 are studied in the paper. According to the land-use dynamic degree model, supported by the 1km GRID data of land-use change and the comprehensive characters of physical, economic and social features, a dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed to disclose the spatial pattern of land-use change processes. Generally speaking, in the traditional agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plains, Yangtze River Delta and Sichuan Basin, the built-up and residential areas occupy a great proportion of arable land, and in the interlock area of farming and pasturing of northern China and the oases agricultural zones, the reclamation of arable land is conspicuously driven by changes of production conditions, economic benefits and climatic conditions. The implementation of “returning arable land into woodland or grassland” policies has won initial success in some areas, but it is too early to say that the trend of deforestation has been effectively reversed across China. In this paper, the division of dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed, for the sake of revealing the temporal and spatial features of land-use change and laying the foundation for the study of regional scale land-use changes. Moreover, an integrated study, including studies of spatial pattern and temporal process of land-use change, is carried out in this paper, which is an interesting try on the comparative studies of spatial pattern on change process and the change process of spatial pattern of land-use change.

Study on the spatial patterns of land-use change and analyses of driving forces in Northeastern China during 1990–2000

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. Supported by the dynamic serving system of national resources, including both the environment database and GIS technology, this paper analyzed the land-use change in northeastern China in the past ten years (1990–2000). It divides northeastern China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree (DD) of land-use: woodland/grassland — arable land conversion zone, dry land — paddy field conversion zone, urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing, and reclamation and abandoned zone. In the past ten years, land-use change of northeastern China can be generalized as follows: increase of cropland area was obvious, paddy field and dry land increased by 74.9 and 276.0 thousand ha respectively; urban area expanded rapidly, area of town and rural residence increased by 76.8 thousand ha; area of forest and grassland decreased sharply with the amount of 1399.0 and 1521.3 thousand ha respectively; area of water body and unused land increased by 148.4 and 513.9 thousand ha respectively. Besides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial patterns of land use, this paper also discusses the driving forces in each land-use dynamic zones. The study shows that some key biophysical factors affect conspicuously the conversion of different land-use types. In this paper, the relationships between land-use conversion and DEM, accumulated temperature (⩾10°C) and precipitation were analysed and represented. We conclude that the land-use changes in northeast China resulted from the change of macro social and economic factors and local physical elements. Rapid population growth and management changes, in some sense, can explain the shaping of woodland/grassland — cropland conversion zone. The conversion from dry land to paddy field in the dry land — paddy field conversion zone, apart from the physical elements change promoting the expansion of paddy field, results from two reasons: one is that the implementation of market-economy in China has given farmers the right to decide what they plant and how they plant their crops, the other factor is originated partially from the change of dietary habit with the social and economic development. The conversion from paddy field to dry land is caused prmarily by the shortfall of irrigation water, which in turn is caused by poor water allocation management by local governments. The shaping of the reclamation and abandoned zone is partially due to the lack of environment protection consciousness among pioneer settlers. The reason for the conversion from grassland to cropland is the relatively higher profits of farming than that of pasturing in the interlocked zone of farming and pasturing. In northeastern China, the rapid expansion of built-up areas results from two factors: the first is its small number of towns; the second comes from the huge potential for expansion of existing towns and cities. It is noticeable that urban expansion in the northeastern China is characterized by gentle topographic relief and low population density. Physiognomy, transportation and economy exert great influences on the urban expansion.

Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: application and validation for Costa Rica

The objective of this paper is to simulate the location of land-use change, specifically forest disturbance, in Costa Rica over several decades. This paper presents a GIS-based model, GEOMOD2, which quantifies factors associated with land-use, and simulates the spatial pattern of land-use forward and backward in time. GEOMOD2 reads rasterized maps of land-use and other biogeophysical attributes to determine empirically the attributes of land that humans tend to use. Then GEOMOD2 uses the patterns of those biogeophysical attributes to simulate the spatial pattern of land-use change. GEOMOD2 can select locations for land-use change according to any of three decision rules based on (1) nearest neighbors, (2) stratification by political sub-region, and/or (3) the pattern of biogeophysical attributes. GEOMOD2 simulates the progressive loss of closed-canopy forest in Costa Rica for 1940, 1961 and 1983, which are the years for which maps of land-use are available. Also, GEOMOD2 extrapolates the pattern of land-use to the year 2010. When GEOMOD2 extrapolates land-use change over several decades, it is able to classify correctly between 74 and 88% of the grid cells, for two categories: forest versus non-forest. Over various simulation runs, Kappa ranges from 0.31 to 0.53. The model’s ability to predict the location of disturbance is best when the model is driven by the location of biogeophysical characteristics, most importantly lifezones.