Spatial Panel Econometric Model Research Articles

The impact of environmental regulations on the green development of the mariculture industry: empirical analysis based on provincial panel data in coastal areas of China.

With the continuous increase in global mariculture production and aquaculture areas, the environmental pollution caused by the mariculture industry is becoming increasingly serious. Faced with environmental issues, countries worldwide have formulated environmental regulations to scientifically intervene in marine environmental pollution issues and promote the green development of the mariculture industry. However, we must determine if strict environmental regulations can effectively promote the green development of the mariculture industry. This article uses the inter-provincial panel data of China's coastal areas from 2003 to 2019 as a sample. We use the entropy-technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution method to measure the intensity of environmental regulation in China's coastal areas and the level of green development of the mariculture industry. On this basis, an economic geography nested matrix was selected to construct a spatial panel econometric model to empirically explore the impact of environmental regulations on the green development of the mariculture industry. This approach also allows us to examine the heterogeneity of the impact of different types of environmental regulations on the green development of the mariculture industry. The research results indicate that environmental regulations have a "U-shaped" impact on the green development of the local mariculture industry, while they have an inverted "U-shaped" impact on the green development of the nearby mariculture industry. Furthermore, heterogeneity exists in the impact of different types of environmental regulations on the green development of the mariculture industry. Based on the research results, this article proposes policy recommendations from the perspectives of flexibly adjusting the intensity of environmental regulations, accelerating the development of voluntary-based environmental regulations, and regulating competition among local governments, which can provide decision-making references for the government to adjust environmental regulation policies and improve the level of green development in the mariculture industry.

Spatial–Temporal Variations of the Gross Ecosystem Product under the Influence of the Spatial Spillover Effect of Urbanization and Ecological Construction in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China

Rapid development of urbanization and intense human activities had a profound influence on the ecosystem service functions. As an integrated monetary index for the evaluation of final ecosystem services, the gross ecosystem product (GEP) is widely used in the quantification of ecosystem service value (ESV). This study initially assessed and analyzed the spatial distribution of the GEP at the county-level scale using multisource data spanning 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Then, the spatial transfer characteristics of the GEP were measured. Finally, the study employed spatial panel econometric models and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to investigate the spatial effect of urbanization and ecological construction on the GEP. The results indicated that: (1) In 2020, the GEP in the Yangtze River Delta Region was RMB 15.24 trillion, and the GEP per unit area was RMB 42.58 million per square kilometer. It exhibited a cumulative decrease of RMB 298.72 billion from 2000 to 2020. (2) The spatial transfer efficiency of the GEP in urban agglomerations showed a clear decline trend. During the period of 2000–2020, over 96% of county-level units exhibited a decline with RMB 90,076,103.17/km2, indicating a consistent downward trend from the central regions towards the periphery. (3) Based on the decomposition effects of the spatial Durbin mode, urbanization and the ecological construction indicator showed spatial spillover effects on the GEP, but their impact mechanisms varied substantially. Among them, the urbanization rate (UR), population density (PD), and the proportion of impervious land (ILP) had the largest negative effect on the GEP, and a 1% rise in ILP locally resulted in a 0.044% decline in the local GEP and a 0.078% rise in the GEP of neighboring units. And the area of ecological land had a positive effect on the GEP of both local and neighboring areas. Those conclusions can offer evidence in favor of encouraging ecologically responsible building practices and sustainable growth in urban agglomerations.

Dynamic evolutionary characteristics and influence mechanisms of carbon emission intensity in counties of the Yangtze River Delta, China.

Clarifying the intrinsic mechanism of county carbon emission intensity (CEI) is essential for guiding the realization of a low-carbon economy as well as for the strategic goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. However, at present, scholars mostly focus on provincial and city scales, with the identification of influencing factors and spatial effect mechanisms of CEI rarely included in the analysis framework. Herein, with the help of three spatial weight matrices, the spatial autocorrelation, the "F + S" influence factor identification method, and the spatial panel econometric model were used to analyze the evolutionary paths and influencing factors of CEI for 209 counties in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2007 to 2020. The results show that (1) the CEI of the YRD decreased from 1.998t/104 RMB to 0.858t/104 RMB. Furthermore, the spatial pattern was low in the southeast and high in the northwest, with high-value areas concentrated in municipal districts and resource-based counties. (2) Moran's I spatial autocorrelation index indicated significant spatial clustering of county CEI. (3) Financial science and technology expenditure, industrial structure, share of urban built-up land, and the urban-rural income gap affected the change in CEI and its spatial effect, whereas total imports and exports had a significant negative effect on local CEI. Therefore, to achieve China's "double carbon" goal, it is necessary to consider the five development concepts as the core, strengthen inter-county exchanges and collaboration, as well as promote collaborative management of the ecological environment.

Policies for carbon-zero targets: Examining the spillover effects of renewable energy and patent applications on environmental quality in Europe

This study examined the spillover effects of CO2 and the marginal effects of trade and renewable energy in 29 countries in Europe using the spatial panel econometric models namely; the spatial error model, spatial lag model, and spatial Durbin model. The study further applied the pooled OLS, random, and fixed effects from the non-spatial models for comparative analysis. The Wald and likelihood tests showed that the dynamic spatial Durbin approach was the best model for the study. Furthermore, the fixed-effects model was selected as the most appropriate model for explaining the elasticities of the exploratory variables by the Hausman test. The results suggest that growing growing renewable energy in a country results in a decrease of carbon emissions in that country and neighboring countries, respectively. Additionally, the findings support the claim that CO2 emissions from one particular area spread to the next nation and the far-off trading partner. According to the findings, to achieve sustainable growth, regulatory agencies must take steps to reduce CO2 emissions from both within the target country and from other neighboring countries, suggesting that cooperation is the best option for mitigating environmental issues efficiently. Considering all the evidence, it is reasonable for national economies to cooperate for environmental protection purposes with their neighbors and create a commmon regulatory framework for efficient mitigation of carbon emissions.

State-level Location Determinants of Japanese Automotive FDI in Mexico

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) location theories highlight the regional factors that influence the location and spatial distribution of the investment project. The study employs a state-level spatial panel econometric model to empirically contrast the main location factors that influence the spatial distribution of Japanese companies. The main results indicate that state characteristics related to the presence of infrastructure, lower wages, agglomeration, and development of the automotive industry influence the presence of Japanese automotive firms in Mexico. The results also highlight the presence of negative spatial externalities for the wages, population, industry agglomeration, and education variables. This shows that neighboring states compete for the arrival of Japanese automotive firms and spatial effects are present. Positive spatial externalities were observed from the market size variable, which can reflect the presence of production networks in the automotive industry, especially for the case of Japanese firms.

How to Measure the Impact of Walking Accessibility of Suburban Rail Station Catchment Areas on the Commercial Premium Benefits of Joint Development

As the primary solution to the issue of high passenger traffic in urban areas, rail transit has a significant impact on the structural form of cities and regional development. Additionally, it has varying degrees of a premium effect on land value around stations. Current research on the factors influencing the premium effect of rail transit station areas mainly focuses on the macro level of the station area circle, with more attention given to the premium caused by distance and functional differences. Most research objects are typically urban center lines or stations. However, this study focuses on the core area of the station and concentrates on the impact of the construction of integrated station–city facilities on the choice of pedestrian routes and the enhancement of pedestrian accessibility. It also explores whether this enhancement is associated with the premium benefits of ancillary commercial development. To achieve this goal, this paper integrates models from several related studies to conduct a comprehensive assessment. Firstly, it uses a spatial panel econometric model to improve the classical characteristic price method model. It then combines the ideas and models of the cost–benefit analysis method, taking the Odakyu Odawara Line of the Japanese suburban railroad as an example. This analysis explores the mechanism and factors influencing the rent premium of commercial facilities in the suburban rail station area and systematically assesses the combined station–city facilities. The study evaluates the social benefits (enhanced walkability) and economic value (premium value added from commercial facilities) of the combined station–city facilities systematically. The results of the study show that (1) the premium benefits of suburban railroad station area commercial facilities are significantly related to the type of station–city combination facilities, combination mode, and walking time and weakly related to the location factor. Additionally, (2) the results of the cost–benefit valuation analysis based on the Ebina Station verify that a reasonable design of station–city combination facilities can effectively enhance the proximity of commercial facilities to the station and improve the walking accessibility, thus promoting the premium benefits. The study demonstrates that a reasonable design of the combined station and city facilities can effectively enhance the proximity of commercial facilities to the station and improve pedestrian accessibility, promoting premium benefits, which can quickly feed the construction cost of the station and achieve positive revenue in the short term. Therefore, the results of the study provide a quantitative reference for the planning and design of suburban stations.

Poverty reduction effects of integrating high-quality development and cultural tourism in China

The integration of the cultural tourism industry with high-quality development is believed to be an important method of alleviating poverty. Most research in this area has focused on single towns, cities, or regions without considering the spillover effects of neighboring areas. To fill this gap, this study applies a spatial panel econometric model to empirically test the spatial spillover effects of integrating the cultural tourism industry with high-quality developments and their mechanisms of poverty alleviation based on provincial panel data of the Chinese Mainland from 2010 to 2020. Four key results are presented. First, there is an obvious spatial dependence on the high-quality development scale, specialization level, and poverty level of cultural tourism integration. The common panel model is found to overestimate the impact of this integration on poverty alleviation because it ignores the spatial spillover-related explanatory variables. Second, the scale of development quality is found to have no significant impact on poverty alleviation when integrating cultural tourism; however, the level of development specialization has both a direct impact on poverty alleviation and the spatial spillover effect. Third, the integration of the cultural tourism industry in the Central and Western regions is shown to have a strong direct effect on poverty reduction through high-quality development. However, the spillover effect on poverty reduction in the Eastern region is greater than that in the Central and Western regions. Fourth, the integration of high-quality development and cultural tourism is found to have a direct impact on poverty alleviation overall by promoting tourism consumption, material capital accumulation, and structural transformation.

Temporal and spatial evolution of regional cultural landscape under the influence of construction land expansion: A case study of Hanjiang delta in Guangdong, China.

Cultural landscapes are the products of combination of natural and human factors with constant change in response to human behavior. Exploring the impacts of construction land expansion on cultural landscapes is the key to understand the formal connotations and value characteristics of human activities interfering with cultural landscapes. In this study, we first classified the cultural landscape of the Hanjiang Delta and then used the landscape index to quantitatively describe the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the cultural landscape from 1980 to 2018. Finally, we analyzed the spatial effect between construction land expansion and the cultural landscape with a spatial panel econometric model. The results showed that a total of seven cultural landscape types were identified at the regional level. From 1980 to 2000, the cultural landscape pattern in the study area changed substantially, with increasing fragmentation, deepening irregularity, and increasing diversity. The proportion of regional construction land increased from 14.8% to 29.9%. The year 2000 was the cut-off point for the rate of construction land expansion, and the chronological characteristics of cultural landscape change coincided with it. There was a spatial dependency between the expansion of construction land and the change of cultural landscape. With the expansion of construction land, the sprawl town landscape in sand dike became the dominant type, and the paddy scattered historical villages, the wetland agglomeration town landscape, and the paddy wetland landscape in net river lowland faced extinction. Construction land expansion affected the local landscape pattern and had spatial spillover effects on neighboring areas. For a particular landscape type, the expansion of construction land led to a general increase in the degree of patch integration and an enhanced landscape agglomeration effect. For different types, this led to a decrease in inter-landscape sprawl, an increase in patch irregularity, and enhanced fragmentation. This study could provide a reference for the human history inheritance and ecological pattern optimization in the Hanjiang Delta.

The spatial panel econometric diagnosis of the influence of green finance on Chinese economic ecologization.

Green finance has the obvious impetus function to economic ecologization development. Through the test of the spatial agglomeration degree of China's green finance and ecological economic development index from 2001 to 2017 (30 provinces except for Hong Kong, Tibet, Taiwan, and Macao), this paper analyzes the spatial correlation of the green finance index and the ecological economic development index. It uses the spatial panel econometric regression analysis model to reveal the impact of Green Finance on China's economic ecology. Results show that (1) the development level of green finance and economic ecologization in China has improved to varying degrees in different periods. However, there are still noticeable regional differences between the eastern, central, western, and northeast regions; (2) green finance plays a positive role in promoting economic ecologization. Developing green finance in one province can promote its economic ecologization and positively impact on economic ecologization of surrounding provinces. (3) Economic ecologization also has a positive spillover effect. The improvement of the ecological economic level of a province can drive the improvement of the ecological economic level of other provinces. Therefore, improving green finance across the country has become a meaningful way to promote economic ecology and promote China's high-quality development.

How Does the Spatial Misallocation of Land Resources Affect Urban Industrial Transformation and Upgrading? Evidence from China

Industrial transformation and upgrading is a key variable for developing countries to become developed countries. In China’s institutional environment, the central government’s decisions regarding the spatial allocation of land resources cause a differentiation in the evolution of industrial structures and formats among regions, generating significant impacts on urban industrial transformation and upgrading (UITU), with important policy implications. Using panel data from 276 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2019, this study constructs a spatial panel econometric model and a mediating effect model to reveal how land spatial misallocation (LSM) affects UITU. The results show that, LSM is not conducive to UITU, and this adverse effect is greater in cities with a relative land supply shortage than in cities with a relative land supply surplus. Further research finds that the LSM caused by the relative land supply shortage affects the UITU mainly through intermediate mechanisms that crowd out the investments and financing for real industries and inhibit residents’ demand and innovation, and the LSM caused by the relative land supply surplus affects the UITU mainly through intermediate mechanisms that enhance the survival of low-end industries and disrupt the institutional environment. From these findings, this study not only puts forward specific policy recommendations for optimizing the allocation of land resources in China to promote UITU, but also discusses the implications for related research and practice in other countries.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Urban Ecological Welfare Performance from the Perspective of High-Quality Development: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China

Based on the concept of high-quality development, this paper constructs an urban ecological welfare evaluation framework, measures the urban ecological welfare performance in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2019 using a stochastic frontier production function model, and conducts a spatial and temporal divergence feature analysis, combining a spatial panel econometric model and a threshold panel regression model to explore the spatial effects and mechanisms of urban ecological welfare performance. The results show that: (1) The urban ecological welfare performance in Jiangsu province has been increasing every year, and the spatial divergence between north and south is significant, with the overall trend of southern Jiangsu > central Jiangsu > northern Jiangsu. (2) The differences in urban ecological welfare performance among the three regions are gradually decreasing, with the high values expanding and the low values decreasing, and the urban ecological welfare performance in northern Jiangsu Province is gradually approaching that in southern Jiangsu Province, and the urban ecological welfare performance level tends to be balanced. (3) There are significant negative spillover effects of industrial structure, city scale, and economic development level on urban ecological welfare performance, as well as significant threshold effects of innovation level, industrial structure, foreign trade dependence, and economic development, and significant differences in the degree of influence of urbanization on urban ecological welfare performance under different threshold variables. (4) The urbanization and economic development levels are the fundamental factors driving urban ecological welfare performance improvement. Industrial structure optimization, city scale, technological innovation, and foreign trade dependence positively contribute to urban welfare performance, and government financial pressure constrains the performance level improvement. In the future, a long-term mechanism for high-quality green development should be constructed, spatial spillover channels should be continuously improved, welfare thresholds should be effectively circumvented, and urban ecological welfare performance should be promoted in a concerted manner.

Impacts of urban forms and socioeconomic factors on CO2 emissions: A spatial econometric analysis

Planning and development of urban is one of the key factors that affect CO2 emissions. Sustainable urban planning and development is crucial to achieving carbon neutrality. However, there are relatively less studies in quantifying the impacts of urban forms and socioeconomic development on CO2 emissions with considering its spatial autocorrelation effects at the city-level. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the impacts of urban forms and socioeconomic factors on CO2 emissions of cities in Guangdong province during 2000–2017 based on a spatial panel econometric model. The results showed that CO2 emissions of Guangdong province increased significantly with a growth rate of 151% and had obvious spatial clustering characteristics. Urban form and socioeconomic development had a significant impact on CO2 emissions. Specifically, the results indicated that increasing the continuity of urban areas and improving the traffic coupling factor can help reduce CO2 emissions. The economic growth, population increase and economic openness degree increase would lead to stronger CO2 emission. In addition, the spatial spillover effects would enhance such impacts of the driving factors. Specifically, when the spillover effect of spatial Dubin model was taken into account, every 1% increase in urban class area, mean perimeter-area ratio, GDP, population, technology level and urbanization rate would lead a total CO2 emissions change by −0.53%, 1.3%, 1.1%, 0.18%, 12% and 1.4%, respectively. The results suggested that cities in Guangdong province should develop a more compact pattern, urban development with a scattered or disperse pattern should transform towards one continuous core city cluster and city belt, thus enhancing integration and sharing of infrastructure and related policies for low carbon development.

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of scientific and technological innovation level: A multidimensional proximity perspective.

Through a literature analysis, this study proposes that the difference between scientific innovation and technological innovation has been ignored in the current research on the level of scientific and technological innovation and its influencing factors. Combined with multidimensional proximity and knowledge type of current research, a theoretical induction has been carried on their corresponding relation with scientific innovation and technological innovation, research hypotheses were proposed the multidimensional proximity effect on the mode and degree of scientific innovation and technological innovation, five theoretical factors, which are the economic development level, regional economic structure, the level of opening to the outside world, science and technology input and education input, are proposed to affect the level of scientific innovation and technological innovation. In this study, the Yangtze River Delta region of China from 2001 to 2018 is selected as the research sample, and the two hypotheses proposed are tested through a mixed method of exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial panel econometric model. The main conclusions are as follows: i) As an exogenous variable, geographical proximity has a small impact on the level of scientific innovation, but a large impact on the level of technological innovation; ii) As endogenous variables, theoretical influencing factors may not play a significant role in the actual environment due to the complex influence of multidimensional proximity; iii) Based on the idea of improving multidimensional proximity and the actual situation of the region and the city, we can formulate policies conducive to improving the regional and urban innovation environment.

Urbanization and Grain Production Pattern of China: Dynamic Effect and Mediating Mechanism

The flow and reallocation of agricultural production factors induced by urbanization play an important role in the changes of the grain production pattern (GPP). Using provincial panel data from 1996 to 2018 in China as the research sample, the center of gravity transfer–standard deviation ellipse model was applied to understand the change characteristics of GPP. Next, a dynamic spatial panel econometric model was established to test the impact of urbanization on GPP, and a spatial mediated effect model was used to identify the mediated transmission paths played by cropland utilization, planting structure adjustment, and agricultural technology progress in this impact process. The main conclusions showed that (1) the grain production COG of China transferred to the northeast, gradually resulting in a spatial pattern from the northeast to the southwest; (2) the urbanization process has a significant negative impact on the GPP, with each unit increase in urbanization resulting in a 0.30% decrease in the grain production concentration index; (3) cropland utilization, planting structural adjustment, and agricultural technology progress play significant mediating roles in the impact of urbanization on the GPP, and their mediating effects can weaken the direct negative impact of urbanization, among which the mediating effect of planting structure adjustment is the highest (13.9%). The study findings provide a new perspective for further understanding the relationship between urbanization and grain production pattern and also provide theoretical references and practical insights for improving the allocation efficiency of agricultural production factors and formulating scientific regional planning policies for grain production in the high-quality transformation of urbanization.

Does Manufacturing Industry Agglomeration Aggravate Regional Pollution? -- Evidence from 271 Prefecture-level Cities in China

<p>To find out the relationship between industrial agglomeration and environmental pollution, this paper carried out empirical research on the panel data collected from 271 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2017 through a spatial panel econometric model. It reviewed the influence of agglomeration externality on environmental pollution. The results detected an inverted "U"-shaped relationship between manufacturing industry agglomeration and environmental pollution nation-wide. The manufacturing industry agglomeration level at the inflection point was 0.652, suggesting that prefecture-level cities suffered severe environmental pollution problems. At the regional level, the manufacturing industry agglomeration in eastern and western China had a significant adverse effect on environmental pollution. In the central China, the relationship between manufacturing industry agglomeration and pollution was "N" -shaped. The manufacturing industry agglomeration levels in most prefecture-level cities were between the two inflection points. The environmental pollution aggravated as the manufacturing industry agglomeration level rose in the range. As for cities in the northeastern region, manufacturing industry agglomeration has no direct causal relationship with environmental pollution.</p>

Analysis on the Spatial Effect of Talent Supply of Vocational Education and Economic Growth of Tobacco Industry from the Perspective of Human Capital

Objectives: Human capital plays an important role in the economic growth of tobacco industry. Education is the direct way to form human capital. At the same time, vocational education is a part of the education system. Vocational education is mainly to cultivate skilled human capital. From the perspective of human capital, this paper studies the impact of talent supply of vocational education on tobacco economic growth. A combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis was used. This paper analyzes the current situation of talent supply of vocational education and tobacco economy in China. It also analyzes the correlation between talent supply of vocational education and tobacco economy. Based on the theoretical model of human capital economic growth. Establish the theoretical model of talent supply in vocational education and tobacco economic growth. Comprehensively consider the spatial interaction of economic growth. Using the spatial panel econometric model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on 29 provinces and cities in China. Use Geoda, MATLAB and other software for empirical calculation. The results show that the supply of vocational education talents and the growth of tobacco economy are on the rise. However, the regional distribution is uneven. And vocational education is positively correlated with tobacco economic growth. The empirical results show that the regional tobacco economic growth in China has negative spatial auto-correlation. Employment, lifetime number of vocational education and human capital level in the tobacco industry significantly promote the economic growth of the tobacco industry. The results provide a reference for the regulation of China's tobacco industry.

Spatial Effects of Participation in Global Value Chains on CO2 Emissions: A Global Spillover Perspective

ABSTRACT Using balanced panel data of 62 countries (regions) from 1995 to 2011, we explore the linkage between a country’s participation in global value chains (GVC) and its carbon emissions using spatial panel econometric models. We find: First, positive spatial dependency does exist between countries. Second, forward and backward GVC participation has different spatial spillover effects, with the latter causing most of the spillovers. Third, regarding industry heterogeneity, the manufacturing sector generates a stronger spatial spillover than the service sector. High-tech manufacturing sub-industries show stronger spillovers, compared to low-tech sub-industries. Finally, we propose policy suggestions for international relations and environmental governance.

Research on the Spatial Spillover Effect of Ecological Innovation Ability and Regional Economic Growth

This article using the spatial econometric analysis technology to build a space from the perspective of geographical feature weighting matrix, spatial correlation of the regional economic growth and integration, to explore the ecological innovation capacity and regional spatial spillover effect of economic growth, and using the spatial regression model decomposition of the partial differential method of actual effect based on 2009-2017 panel data from 29 provinces cities and autonomous regions in China. Based on the data of 29 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2017, this paper constructs the spatial weight matrix from the perspective of geographical features, establishes the spatial panel econometric model, and investigates the spatial correlation and clustering of regional economic growth uses spatial econometric analysis technology. We explore the spatial spillover effect of ecological innovation ability and regional economic growth, and uses the partial differential method of spatial regression model to decompose this effect. The results show that, firstly, China’s regional economic development is not balanced, and the economic development of neighboring regions is basically the same, which has a certain degree of spatial agglomeration and significant spatial correlation, and China’s economic growth has significant spatial heterogeneity. Second, the ecological innovation environment has a great spillover effect on the economic growth of neighboring regions, and the human resource level and capital investment have significant positive spillover effect between neighboring regions. The coefficient of ecological innovation output is significantly negative. Thirdly, the regional flows of capital input, labor force, the level of opening up, industrial structure and human capital not only have obvious direct effects, but also have a significant promoting effect on economic growth through the spatial spillover effect. The conclusion of this paper provides policy enlightenment for promoting sustainable economic growth among provinces and regions in China.

Spatial–Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Water Use Efficiency in Northwest China—Based on a Super-DEA Model and a Spatial Panel Econometric Model

Improving agricultural water use efficiency (AWUE) is an important way to solve the shortage of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions. This study used the Super-DEA (data envelopment analysis) to measure the AWUE of 52 cities in Northwest China from 2000 to 2018. Based on spatial and temporal perspectives, it applied Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) to explore the dynamic evolution and regional differences of AWUE. A spatial econometric model was then used to analyze the main factors that influence the AWUE in Northwest China. The results showed firstly that the overall AWUE in Northwest China from 2000 to 2018 presented a steady upward trend. However, only a few cities achieved effective agricultural water usage by 2018, and the differences among cities were obvious. Secondly, AWUE showed an obvious spatial autocorrelation in Northwest China and showed significant high–high and low–low agglomeration characteristics. Thirdly, economic growth, urbanization development, and effective irrigation have significant, positive effects on AWUE, while per capita water resource has a significant, negative influence. Finally, when improving the AWUE in arid and semi-arid regions, plans should be formulated according to local conditions. The results of this study can provide new ideas on the study of AWUE in arid and semi-arid regions and provide references for the formulation of regional agricultural water resource utilization policies as well.

Urbanization-induced spatio-temporal variation of water resources utilization in northwestern China: A spatial panel model based approach

Rapid urbanization has become a common occurrence worldwide, and it is important to ensure a sustainable water supply despite the increasing severity of water resource constraints. As an important area along the one belt and one road line, northwest China has experienced increasing water shortages during the rapid urbanization process in recent decades. In the current work, we employed the Spatial Panel Econometric Model to explore the spatial influence of urbanization on water resource utilization and its driving mechanism (e.g., economy, population, trade, capital, investment and industry structure) based on the water ecological footprint perspective during the period from 2005 to 2017. The results indicated that urbanization and the water ecological footprint showed a spatially clustered trend. In addition, the spatial lag regression coefficient of ρ in the spatial Durbin model was significant at the 1% level, showing that the water ecological footprint had an obvious spatial spill-over effect. Urbanization reduced the water ecological footprint in northwest China, and the main driving factors were the economic scale effect, population scale effect and investment pull effect. However, human capital exhibited a significantly positive relationship with the water ecological footprint, which was contrary to our theoretical hypothesis. In the classification of the water ecological footprint, urbanization reduced the agricultural water ecological footprint both temporally and spatially, while the other classifications all increased. The results are beneficial for informing policies towards sustainable water resource utilization under the framework of integrated development in the process of rapid urbanization in northwest China.