Spatial Microsimulation Techniques Research Articles

High-resolution synthetic population mapping for quantifying disparities in disaster impacts: An application in the Bangladesh Coastal Zone

The impacts of natural disasters are often disproportionally borne by poor or otherwise marginalized groups. However, while disaster risk modelling studies have made progress in quantifying the exposure of populations, limited advances have been made in determining the socioeconomic characteristics of these exposed populations. Here, we generate synthetic structural and socioeconomic microdata for around 9.5 million persons for six districts in Bangladesh as vector points using a combination of spatial microsimulation techniques and dasymetric modelling. We overlay the dataset with satellite-derived flood extents of Cyclone Fani, affecting the region in 2019, quantifying the number of exposed households, their socioeconomic characteristics, and the exposure bias of certain household variables. We demonstrate how combining various modelling techniques could provide novel insights into the exposure of poor and vulnerable groups, which could help inform the emergency response after extreme events as well targeting adaptation options to those most in need of them.

Spatial Microsimulation Combined with Skater Regionalization Methods: A Study for the Paraíba Valley and North Coast Metropolitan Region Subregion 4 in the São Paulo State

This study analyzes the socio-occupational distribution in the Paraíba Valley and North Coast Metropolitan Region (in Portuguese: Região Metropolitana do Vale do Paraíba e Litoral Norte – RMVPLN) Subregion 4 using spatial microsimulation techniques. To fulfill the proposed objective, the Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) technique was used to obtain spatial microdata in the territorial census tracts unit through the 2010 Brazilian Demographic Census. After the Skater regionalization technique was applied, eight homogeneous socio-occupational groups were found. Overall, the proposed socio-occupational categories, studied at an intra-urban scale, allowed for highlighting the social structure on a subregion of the newest Metropolitan space in the São Paulo state. Although this is a preliminary study, it is already capable to identify inequalities degrees that consistently spatially segregate and the less privileged population socioeconomic groups.

On the spatially explicit Gini coefficient: the case study of Chile—a high-income developing country

This study suggests the use of a geographically-varying Gini coefficient to better understand local dynamics between income inequality and socioeconomic attributes. We estimate local Gini coefficients by disaggregating the traditional Lorenz curve approach at small census areas using spatial microsimulation techniques. As our case study, we chose the city of Santiago, Chile. Despite being ranked as a high-income country by the World Bank, Chile is the most unequal OECD country and the seventh worst in the world. Results reveal interesting spatial patterns that relate income inequality to income and educational level. For instance, the most unequal areas of the city correspond, perhaps against all odds, to the most well-off neighbourhoods having, in addition, the highest educational level. This result suggests that from a certain level of high income in areas with high-income inequality, the spatial cohesion of neighbourhoods may be mainly caused by the educational level of households. Results also reveal that the least unequal areas are mostly observed across neighbourhoods with low educational levels and low per capita incomes.

Examining the factors associated with depression at the small area level in Ireland using spatial microsimulation techniques

The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that, world-wide, depression will be the second largest source of burden of disease by 2020. It is currently estimated that approximately 300,000 Irish people experience depression. To date no research has been carried out on the small area incidence of depression in Ireland. Although research has looked at access levels to acute psychiatric hospitals for each electoral division (ED) in Ireland, there is currently no research on the accessibility of mental health services to individuals with depression. This paper aims to address this gap in the literature. First, a simple logistic regression model is used to identify the determinants of depression at the national level. Secondly, the spatial distribution of individuals with depression is estimated at the small area, ED level using a spatial microsimulation model. Finally, a spatial interaction model is used to analyse access to acute inpatient facilities at the national level and community-based facilities for individuals with depression at the sub-national level. The policy implications of these results are discussed in relation to both the health care literature and current Irish health care policy.

Measuring Small Area Inequality Using Spatial Microsimulation: Lessons Learned from Australia

Measuring income inequality has long been of interest in applied social and economic research in the OECD countries including Australia. This includes measuring income inequality at the regional level. In this article, we have used spatial microsimulation techniques to calculate small area inequality in Australia using disposable income data which are not available at

Rich or Poor in Retirement? A Small Area Analysis of Australian Private Superannuation Savings in 2006 Using Spatial Microsimulation

Vidyattama Y., Cassells R., Harding A. and McNamara J. Rich or poor in retirement? A small area analysis of Australian private superannuation savings in 2006 using spatial microsimulation, Regional Studies. Substantial differences in retirement savings exist among Australians. Little is known, however, about how these patterns play out at a small area level, partly due to an absence of available data about wealth holdings at a small area level. This paper uses spatial microsimulation techniques to produce estimates of superannuation savings for Australian men and women who in 2006 were aged between forty-five and sixty years at a Statistical Local Area (SLA) level. The findings show substantial differences between Australia's small areas in terms of both superannuation ownership and median balances. Vidyattama Y., Cassells R., Harding A. and McNamara J. 退休的贫与富？利用空间微观模拟对 2006 年澳大利亚退休金储蓄进行的小型分析，区域研究。退休储蓄在澳大利亚存在实质性的地域差异。然而，上述模式如何呈现于一个较小的地域层面我们还不甚了解。本文利用空间微观模拟技术对澳大利亚2006年在地方统计层面年龄介于45-60岁间男女的退休金储蓄进行了评估。结果表明，就所有权和平均余额而言，澳大利亚小块地域之间也存在实质性差异。 空间微观模拟 空间分布 退休金储蓄 性别 Vidyattama Y., Cassells R., Harding A. et McNamara J. Être riche ou être pauvre au moment de la retraite? Une analyse à partir des données régionales sur les économies privées pour la retraite des Australiens en 2006 employant une microsimulation géographique, Regional Studies. Il existe d'importantes différences des économies pour la retraite des Australiens. Cependant, on ne sait pas beaucoup quant au déroulement de ces tendances sur le plan régional, en partie à cause des données non-disponibles sur la richesse à l'échelle régionale. Cet article emploie des techniques de microsimulation géographique afin de produire des estimations des économies pour la retraite des hommes et des femmes australiens âgés en 2006 de quarante-cinq jusqu'à soixante ans au niveau des zones statistiques locales (SLA). Les résultats laissent voir d'importantes différences interrégionales en Australie quant aux retraites complémentaires et aux soldes médians. Microsimulation géographique Distribution géographique Économies pour la retraite Genre Vidyattama Y., Cassells R., Harding A. und McNamara J. Reich oder arm im Ruhestand? Eine Analyse der privaten Altersersparnisse in Australien im Jahr 2006 auf der Ebene kleiner Gebiete mit Hilfe von räumlicher Mikrosimulation, Regional Studies. Bei den Ersparnissen für den Ruhestand bestehen unter Australiern erhebliche Unterschiede. Allerdings ist wenig darüber bekannt, wie diese Muster auf der Ebene kleiner Gebiete ausfallen, was unter anderem auf einen Mangel an verfügbaren Daten über Vermögensguthaben auf der Ebene kleiner Gebiete zurückzuführen ist. In diesem Beitrag werden mit Hilfe von räumlichen Mikrosimulationstechniken die Altersersparnisse von australischen Männern und Frauen, die im Jahr 2006 zwischen 46 und 60 Jahre alt waren, auf der Ebene eines statistischen Lokalgebiets (SLA) geschätzt. Aus den Ergebnissen geht hervor, dass zwischen den kleinen Gebieten Australiens hinsichtlich des Eigentums und medianen Guthabens von Altersersparnissen erhebliche Unterschiede vorhanden sind. Räumliche Mikrosimulation Räumliche Verteilung Altersersparnisse Geschlecht Vidyattama Y., Cassells R., Harding A. y McNamara J. ¿Rico o pobre en la jubilación? Análisis de áreas pequeñas en los ahorros de jubilación australianos en 2006 usando una microsimulación espacial, Regional Studies. Entre los australianos existen considerables diferencias en los planes de ahorro de jubilación. Sin embargo, poco se sabe sobre cómo estos patrones se desarrollan en un área pequeña, en parte debido a la ausencia de datos disponibles sobre el patrimonio en áreas pequeñas. En este artículo utilizamos técnicas espaciales de microsimulación para obtener estimaciones de los ahorros de jubilación para mujeres y hombres australianos que en 2006 tenían entre cuarenta y cinco y sesenta años en un área local estadística. Los resultados muestran grandes diferencias entre las áreas pequeñas de Australia en cuanto a la propiedad y los saldos medios de ahorros de jubilación. Microsimulación espacial Distribución espacial Ahorros en la jubilación Sexo

The Challenges of Combining Two Databases in Small-Area Estimation: An Example Using Spatial Microsimulation of Child Poverty

Spatial microsimulation techniques have become an increasingly popular way of fulfilling the need for generating small-area data estimates. However, the technique also poses numerous methodological challenges, including the utilisation of two different databases simultaneously to produce estimates of population characteristics at the local level. An important but neglected question is whether different distributions of key variables within these two databases may affect the validity of the spatial estimation results. This study uses the significant policy issue of small-area estimates of child poverty rates in Australia to examine this question. The different income distributions for families with children in the two databases and the consequent effect on child-poverty estimates are assessed, while the apparent validity of these synthetic small-area poverty rates is gauged.

Developing Spatial Microsimulation Estimates of Small Area Advantage and Disadvantage among Older Australians

ABSTRACTThis paper presents innovative applications of spatial microsimulation techniques to develop estimates of the small area distribution of deep economic disadvantage and relative economic advantage among Australians 55 years and older, combining data on disposable income, main source of income, and housing tenure. The spatial microsimulation model produces synthetic small area measures of economic disadvantage and advantage among older people that are multidimensional. This approach recognises that income levels alone may not adequately capture the complexity of relative advantage and disadvantage among older people. We particularly focus here on addressing and investigating the limits of spatial microsimulation modelling, describing and testing a number of possible methods for validating the synthetic estimates and identifying ongoing challenges and opportunities in the estimation of older adults' economic characteristics at a small area level. We find that, once we have adjusted the benchmarks to better match our research and excluded from our analysis small areas for which the modelling is unable to produce accurate results (often because of small sample sizes or unusual population characteristics), we are able to accurately match our synthetic estimates with known small area data, with Pearson's R values between 0.95 and 0.98. Our final results show substantial small area differences in economic advantage and disadvantage among older Australians and point to the need for understanding the geographic aspects of diversity in the older population. Such an understanding will allow for the development and appropriate targeting of policy responses to the needs of older people of modest economic means. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Children in Housing Disadvantage in Australia: Development of a Summary Small Area Index

The importance of suitable, affordable housing in promoting the well-being of children is widely acknowledged. However, despite growing interest in geographic differences in child well-being, little is known about the spatial distribution of characteristics associated with housing disadvantage for Australian children. This paper seeks to develop knowledge in this area by creating a headline indicator of child housing disadvantage. It uses spatially disaggregated Census data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census of Population and Housing 2006 capturing overcrowding, public housing tenure and dwelling type, and creates synthetic estimates of housing stress using spatial microsimulation techniques. These variables are then combined into a single index of housing disadvantage. Next, the spatial microsimulation techniques and index creation methodology are described, and the results of the validation process, including sensitivity analysis of alternative index creation approaches, are presented.

Examining the factors associated with depression at the small area level in Ireland using spatial microsimulation techniques

Abstract The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that, world-wide, depression will be the second largest source of burden of disease by 2020. It is currently estimated that approximately 300,000 Irish people experience depression. To date no research has been carried out on the small area incidence of depression in Ireland. Although research has looked at access levels to acute psychiatric hospitals for each electoral division (ED) in Ireland, there is currently no research on the accessibility of mental health services to individuals with depression. This paper aims to address this gap in the literature. First, a simple logistic regression model is used to identify the determinants of depression at the national level. Secondly, the spatial distribution of individuals with depression is estimated at the small area, ED level using a spatial microsimulation model. Finally, a spatial interaction model is used to analyse access to acute inpatient facilities at the national level and community-based facil...

Building a Spatial Microsimulation-Based Planning Support System for Local Policy Making

This paper presents a spatial microsimulation modelling and predictive policy analysis system called Micro-MaPPAS, a Planning Support System (PSS) constructed for a local strategic partnership in a large metropolitan area of the UK. The innovative feature of this system is the use of spatial microsimulation techniques for the enhancement of local policy decision making in connection with the neighbourhood renewal strategy. The paper addresses the relevant data issues and technical aspects of the linkage of spatial microsimulation modelling frameworks to PSS and deals with the wider implications that such a linkage may have to local policy and planning procedures. Finally, the paper presents some illustrative examples of the policy relevance and policy analysis potential of the software.

Evaluation of environmental monitoring strategies.

In environmental monitoring, it is important that the monitoring system should emit early warnings when undesired events occur. These events may be sudden or of a more subtle nature. In the design of such monitoring systems, a proper balance between cost and risk must be achieved. There are 2 classic types of risk connected with early warning systems, namely the risk of not detecting significant changes and the risk of false alarms. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for comparing the performance of different monitoring systems, considering the classic types of risk and cost. The method is applied to the monitoring of the lichen cover as a test case. The expected utility has been used as a measure of performance. When estimating the probabilities of the events, spatial microsimulation and Monte-Carlo simulation techniques have been used. The monitoring programs studied are based on satellite images, aerial photos, field samples, and land-cover maps. The major conclusions of this study are that standardized quality measures are extremely useful for evaluating the usability of environmental monitoring methods. In addition, when estimating gains and costs, spatial microsimulation techniques are useful. To improve the method, however, macroconstraints should also be used for aligning the simulation model.