Space Weather Services Research Articles

The Mother's Day Geomagnetic Storm on 10 May 2024: Aurora Observations and Low Latitude Space Weather Effects in Mexico

AbstractOn 10 May 2024, a severe geomagnetic storm coinciding with Mother's Day in Mexico lasted over 40 hr and produced polar auroras observable at low latitudes. This storm, the most intense since 2003, resulted from a series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections from active region 3664. The event was significant for space weather studies in Mexico, marking a milestone by enabling comprehensive measurements of its effects. The Mexico Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX) and the National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE) had prepared for such an event since their inception. LANCE's instrument networks recorded solar chromospheric images, solar radio bursts, geomagnetic variations, Schumann resonances, ionospheric disturbances, and energetic particle flows. They also monitored Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in three strategic substations of the national electrical system. This provided unprecedented insights into the dynamics of severe space weather events at the North‐American low‐latitude environment. Citizen science efforts documented auroras and regional responses, capturing variations in geomagnetic indices, ionospheric disturbances, cosmic ray fluxes, GICs, and technological impacts. SCIESMEX worked with the National Civil Protection System (SINAPROC) to issue warnings, ensuring public awareness and preparedness. This coordination underscores the importance of effective communication and collaboration in mitigating impacts. The May 2024 geomagnetic storm demonstrated the critical role of preparedness, research, and public education in reducing the effects of future space weather events in Mexico.

Very High Energy Solar Energetic Particle Events and Ground Level Enhancement Events: Forecasting and Alerts

AbstractA Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) event can be observed as an increase in the background of ground‐based neutron monitor observations and is often associated with an increase of >500 MeV space‐based proton flux measurements. GLE events begin as very high‐energy SEP events associated with GeV protons. For such events to be detected at sea level, proton energies must exceed about 433 MeV. Since the increased flux of such particles can be a major problem to technology in space and on Earth and pose a threat for human health, developing real time warning systems is of great importance. GLE Alert++ is a product, built by the Athens Cosmic Ray Group of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, that issues alerts when a GLE event starts to register and is based on ground‐based neutron monitor observations. From the space‐based approach, the HESPERIA UMASEP‐500 product, jointly developed within the framework of the EU HORIZON2020 HESPERIA project by the Universidad de Malaga, Spain and National Observatory of Athens, Greece, provides forecasts of GLE events and >500 MeV protons relying on GOES satellite Soft X‐Ray and high energy proton observations. These two products are fully integrated as federated products on the ESA SWE Portal and are provided as part of the ESA Space Safety Program Space Weather Service Network. In this paper we present how the products were built, provide examples of their outputs as seen on the ESA SWE Portal, and show how the products complement each other and how using them together can in some instances provide more information for users of these services.

The Vigil Magnetometer for Operational Space Weather Services From the Sun‐Earth L5 Point

AbstractSevere space weather has the potential to cause significant socio‐economic impact and it is widely accepted that mitigating this risk requires more comprehensive observations of the Sun and heliosphere, enabling more accurate forecasting of significant events with longer lead‐times. In this context, it is now recognized that observations from the L5 Sun‐Earth Lagrange point (both remote and in situ) would offer considerable improvements in our ability to monitor and forecast space weather. Remote sensing from L5 allows for the observation of solar features earlier than at L1, providing early monitoring of active region development, as well as tracking of interplanetary coronal mass ejections through the inner heliosphere. In situ measurements at L5 characterize the solar wind's geoeffectiveness (particularly stream interaction regions), and can also be ingested into heliospheric models, improving their performance. The Vigil space weather mission is part of the ESA Space Safety Program and will provide a real‐time data stream for space weather services from L5 following its anticipated launch in the early 2030s. The interplanetary magnetic field is a key observational parameter, and here we describe the development of the Vigil magnetometer instrument for operational space weather monitoring at the L5 point. We summarize the baseline instrument capabilities, demonstrating how heritage from science missions has been leveraged to develop a low‐risk, high‐heritage instrument concept.

SWOL2023: Report of Space Weather Observations Throughout Latinoamerica: Filling the Southern Gaps

AbstractThe “Space Weather Observations throughout Latinoamerica: Filling the Southern gaps” Workshop took place in Ushuaia, Argentina, from 2 to 4 October 2023. This event was exclusively dedicated to Space Weather (SWx), gathering leading international academic and governmental agencies focused on the subject. The meeting addressed the field of SWx from three perspectives: driving phenomena occurring in the solar atmosphere, evolution in the interplanetary environment, and interaction with the Earth. In addition, emphasis was placed on identifying key research directions in solar and space physics that warrant development in Argentina and across the region in the forthcoming years. The workshop also focused on the current observational infrastructure that supports SWx studies, and how to improve and develop it through strategic international partnerships, stressing on the need for real‐time data. The conference fostered discussion among different partners involved in SWx studies, that is, researchers and potential space weather service providers, and the need to include in this debate potential users of space weather services.

An Assessment of the GLE Alert++ Warning System

Over the last years the Athens Cosmic Ray Group of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens has implemented a warning tool called GLE Alert, which is a highly credible application that issues alerts when a ground level enhancement (GLE) starts due to very high energy solar energetic particles reaching the Earth. This application warns of a high intensity solar energetic particle event up to several minutes before it reaches near the near-Earth space environment. In this work, an assessment of the latest updated version of GLE Alert, GLE Alert++, is presented. GLE Alert++ is a federated product of the ESA S2P SWE Space Radiation Expert Service Centre, which is part of the ESA Space WEather Service NETwork (SWESNET) project. The assessment of the GLE Alert++, which was finalized in October 2022, focused on: (a) the availability of the real-time data provided by the neutron monitor stations that contribute to the GLE Alert++, (b) the behaviour of each station regarding the different Alert levels status (Watch, Warning and Alert), and (c) the definition of the real-time assessment index. The results of this work are of essential importance since they ensure a reliable and trustworthy warning tool, and can be highly useful in protecting humans during extreme solar energetic events.

The Status of Space Weather Infrastructure and Research in Africa

Space weather science has been a growing field in Africa since 2007. This growth in infrastructure and human capital development has been accompanied by the deployment of ground-based observing infrastructure, most of which was donated by foreign institutions or installed and operated by foreign establishments. However, some of this equipment is no longer operational due to several factors, which are examined in this paper. It was observed that there are considerable gaps in ground-based space-weather-observing infrastructure in many African countries, a situation that hampers the data acquisition necessary for space weather research, hence limiting possible development of space weather products and services that could help address socio-economic challenges. This paper presents the current status of space weather science in Africa from the point of view of some key leaders in this field, focusing on infrastructure, situation, human capital development, and the research landscape.

On Some Challenges for National and Global Space Weather Services

Space Weather (SW) hazards are discussed in terms of the operation of national SW services and global SW centers for the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The definition of threshold values of monitored parameters which are used to identify moderate and severe SW events is one of the critical problems. Due to the lack of both physical data on severe events and user feedback, we tried to approach the problem statistically. In particular, we pursued the answer to the question about what intensity of ionospheric storms and flare effects should be reported by national and global SW entities to their users. We also discussed the possible role of an active region on the Sun, and the cosmic rays’ issues that may be helpful regarding SW operational work. The presented considerations are based on examples of the ionosphere state assessment for the low-latitude American sector with a focus on the Mexican region. This work attempts to argue the possible approaches to resolve the tasks that the SW national services and global centers face.

An investigation into how space weather operational centre products meet end-user needs

Potential beneficiaries of the COSPAR Space Weather Roadmap can be classified in two groups – 1) operational space weather service providers, which can be viewed as direct users of the science developed through the COSPAR roadmap process; 2) end-users such as the electricity and satellites sectors whose requirements should define the metrics and parameters delivered through the products of space weather service providers, which therefore are intimately linked to the focus and evolution of the COSPAR roadmap.With regard to Group (1), interaction with COSPAR that feeds Group 2 requirements into the roadmap process may be enhanced via specific activities such as:•Participation in COSPAR bodies such as the Panel on Space Weather and ISWAT.•Participation in ISES and WMO space weather teams that are increasingly engaging with COSPAR to better coordinate research and operational space weather activities.•Promoting actions to ensure the R2O-O2R circle is complete - this may include adopting specific R2O-O2R actions or best-practice identified through WMO, ISES, or COSPAR activities that may also be effectively used to focus future iterations of COSPAR space weather roadmaps.Group 2 members often exist at one step further removed from the research community (i.e., they typically speak to operational service providers (Group (1) and these service providers interact with the research community), so there is a risk that their requirements are not fully addressed by the operational service providers and of a disconnect with the research community. To strengthen the research/operational centre/end-user chain, we first need to know how the operational centres and end-users interact, via a survey. Following this, we can better target research to support operational centres and understand how the research to end-user connections may be improved.In this paper, we describe such a survey and present the results. The survey focuses on the level of engagement between operational centres and end-users, end-user views of the quality of existing services, and their views on how further research can be exploited to better meet their requirements. We focus on the six key end-user sectors of Power, Aviation, Satellites, HF communications, GNSS, and Aurora Watchers. Via these examples, the connection from end-user impacts through to operations through to research requirements can be clarified. We further summarise the survey findings in terms of the end-user impact pathways defined in Schrijver et al. (2015).

Performance indicator development addressing mitigation of the space weather impacts on GNSS

Within the European Space Agency's (ESA) Space Weather Service Network, the development of performance indicators for the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has been identified as essential to meet the growing needs of end users for Space Weather information in the field of navigation. This requires a targeted analysis of Space Weather-related disturbances of technical systems and services in the field of satellite-based navigation, considering the growing requirements of all the different users in this domain. The goal of the Space Weather Impact on GNSS Performance: Application Development (SWIGPAD) project is to develop GNSS performance indicators (GPI) based on Space Weather data provided by European research institutes through the ESA Space Weather Service Portal (available at https://swe.ssa.esa.int) with the aim to fulfill representative use cases derived from dedicated meeting with industry and government experts. The application that serves the GPI will provide the user with information about current and expected effects of Space Weather on positioning at their respective location. Additionally, end users in the various GNSS application domains shall be assisted with an overall numerical and graphical estimate of the positioning uncertainty resulting from ionospheric conditions and its evolution over time. The intent of this article is to present the results of the project and the capabilities of the GPI application.

The time profile of relativistic solar particle events as observed by neutron monitors

The most energetic particles accelerated in solar eruptive events are protons and nuclei with energies that may reach a few tens of GeV. They can be detected on the Earth through the secondaries they produce when interacting with the atmosphere. Solar energetic particle events where this happens are called Ground-Level Enhancements (GLEs). Their study is relevant on the one hand because the high particle energies pose particularly strong challenges to the understanding of the acceleration processes. On the other hand, the secondary particles constitute a source of radiation in the atmosphere that may temporarily exceed the permanent dose rate from galactic cosmic rays. This makes the monitoring of radiation doses received by aircrew from GLEs one issue of space weather services for civil aviation. This study addresses the time profiles of GLEs, in the search for commonalities that can be used to constrain models of acceleration and propagation and to forecast the evolution of an ongoing event. We investigate historical GLEs (1971–2012) with the worldwide network of neutron monitors, comparing the rise and the decay as observed by the neutron monitor with the strongest response. The sample comprises 23 events. We evaluate statistical correlations between rise time and decay time inferred from fits to the time profiles and compute a normalised median GLE time profile. An empirical correlation reported in earlier work between the observed rise times and decay times of the neutron monitor count rate profiles is confirmed. We find indications of a statistical relationship between the rise times and the parent eruptive activity. We discuss ideas on the mechanisms behind the correlation of rise and decay times and on its usefulness for space weather services.

Status of SSA activities in Poland and recent SST developments

The Polish activities in the SSA domain despite having been continuously developed from the beginning of the space era however have until recently mainly concentrated on the science and research domain. The Polish participation in various international SSA initiatives such as ESA SSA/Space Safety Programme, European Space Surveillance and Tracking Consortium (EUSST) represented by Polish Space Agency (POLSA) or Space Weather Service for ICAO PECASUS consortium represented by Space Research Centre of Polish Academy of Science has shifted those activities also into the operational domain. The current SSA system in Poland is based on the pool of the Polish scientific and commercial assets organized by the Polish space administration. Currently, Polish SST network consists of over 20 optical sensors operating for national purposes with a part contributing to EUSST. The paper presents a general outlook of SSA capability in Poland focusing mainly on the SST component, a preview of recent developments, and the preliminary results in terms of photometric solutions as an effort to extend current operational Polish capabilities in preparation for the future more complex environment in support of national and European efforts.

Global Monitoring of Ionospheric Weather by GIRO and GNSS Data Fusion

Prompt and accurate imaging of the ionosphere is essential to space weather services, given a broad spectrum of applications that rely on ionospherically propagating radio signals. As the 3D spatial extent of the ionosphere is vast and covered only fragmentarily, data fusion is a strong candidate for solving imaging tasks. Data fusion has been used to blend models and observations for the integrated and consistent views of geosystems. In space weather scenarios, low latency of the sensor data availability is one of the strongest requirements that limits the selection of potential datasets for fusion. Since remote plasma sensing instrumentation for ionospheric weather is complex, scarce, and prone to unavoidable data noise, conventional 3D-var assimilative schemas are not optimal. We describe a novel substantially 4D data fusion service based on near-real-time data feeds from Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) called GAMBIT (Global Assimilative Model of the Bottomside Ionosphere with Topside estimate). GAMBIT operates with a few-minute latency, and it releases, among other data products, the anomaly maps of the effective slab thickness (EST) obtained by fusing GIRO and GNSS data. The anomaly EST mapping aids understanding of the vertical plasma restructuring during disturbed conditions.

Android application development for push notification feature for Indonesian space weather service based on Google Cloud Messaging

The advances of digital technology bring the era where the communication platform of modern society facilitates the spreading of information which is effortless yet distracting. This paper describes the development of a mobile application on the android platform as a service that provides information on Indonesian space weather conditions where the pushed- notification method is used to deliver information to the service’s stakeholders as the targeted users. The notification which presents the message directly to the users’ device is considered the most effective way to engage the users. A cross-platform message data builder based on GSON and Retrofit interface is implemented to construct information contents in the notification as well as in the application, suitable for use cases that occurred to accommodate the user preference. Furthermore, the application uses mobile device token identification to specifically manage the engagement process served by Firebase, a Google cloud messaging system. The application analytic indicates that the user-application retention of average users is about 80 percent and the success rate of delivered instant messages with push notification is 96 percent respectively during one month of testing from 48 registered users.

A new climatological electron density model for supporting space weather services

The ionosphere is the ionized part of the Earth’s atmosphere, ranging from about 60 km up to several Earth radii, whereas the upper part above about 1000 km height up to the plasmapause is usually called the plasmasphere. We present a new three-dimensional electron density model to support space weather services and mitigate propagation errors for trans-ionospheric signals. The model is developed by superposing the Neustrelitz Plasmasphere Model (NPSM) to an ionosphere model composed of separate F and E-layer distributions. It uses the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM), Neustrelitz Peak Density Model (NPDM), and the Neustrelitz Peak Height Model (NPHM) for the total electron content (TEC), peak ionization, and peak height information. These models describe the spatial and temporal variability of the key parameters as a function of local time, geographic/geomagnetic location, solar irradiation, and activity. The model is developed to calculate the electron concentration at any given location and time in the ionosphere for trans-ionospheric applications and named the Neustrelitz Electron Density Model (NEDM2020). A comprehensive validation study is conducted against electron density in-situ data from DMSP and Swarm, Van Allen Probes and ICON missions, and topside TEC data from COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 mission, bottom side TEC data from TOPEX/Poseidon mission, and ground-based TEC data from International GNSS Service (IGS) covering both high and low solar activity conditions. Additionally, the model performance is compared with the 3D electron density model NeQuick2. Our investigation shows that the NEDM2020 performs better than the NeQuick2 compared with the in-situ data from Van Allen Probes and ICON satellites and TEC data from COSMIC and TOPEX/Poseidon missions. When compared with DMSP and IGS TEC data, both NEDM2020 and NeQuick2 perform very similarly.

On the Evolution of a Sub-C Class Flare: A Showcase for the Capabilities of the Revamped Catania Solar Telescope

Solar flares are occasionally responsible for severe space-weather events, which can affect space-borne and ground-based infrastructures, endangering anthropic technological activities and even human health and safety. Thus, an essential activity in the framework of space-weather monitoring is devoted to the observation of the activity level on the Sun. In this context, the acquisition system of the Catania Solar Telescope has been recently upgraded in order to improve its contribution to the European Space Agency (ESA) – Space Weather Service Network through the ESA Portal, which represents the main asset for space weather in Europe. Here, we describe the hardware and software upgrades of the Catania Solar Telescope and the main data products provided by this facility, which include full-disk images of the photosphere and chromosphere, together with a detailed characterization of sunspot groups. As a showcase of the observational capabilities of the revamped Catania Solar Telescope, we report the analysis of a B5.4 class flare that occurred on 7 December 2020, simultaneously observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph and the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellites.

Space Weather Services for Civil Aviation—Challenges and Solutions

This paper presents a review on the PECASUS service, which provides advisories on enhanced space weather activity for civil aviation. The advisories are tailored according to the Standards and Recommended Practices of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Advisories are disseminated in three impact areas: radiation levels at flight altitudes, GNSS-based navigation and positioning, and HF communication. The review, which is based on the experiences of the authors from two years of running pilot ICAO services, describes empirical models behind PECASUS products and lists ground- and space-based sensors, providing inputs for the models and 24/7 manual monitoring activities. As a concrete example of PECASUS performance, its products for a post-storm ionospheric F2-layer depression event are analyzed in more detail. As PECASUS models are particularly tailored to describe F2-layer thinning, they reproduce observations more accurately than the International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI(STORM)), but, on the other hand, it is recognized that the service performance is much affected by the coverage of its input data. Therefore, more efforts will be directed toward systematic measuring of the availability, timeliness and quality of the data provision in the next steps of the service development.

Sino-Russian Space Weather Effort for Global Air Navigation Safety

This paper covers the role of the China-Russia Consortium in Global Air Navigation Safety, how space weather centers for aviation were established and how are they regulated. We briefly introduce the effects of space weather on aviation in general. A short description of the ICAO-designated space weather service fol-lows. The China-Russia Consortium history, members and the way it integrates into the global service are described afterwards.

Local Magnetic Activity Index Nowcast Based on Concurrent Measurements at Two Observatories in Close Proximity

AbstractPermanent monitoring and real‐time indexing of the geomagnetic activity is of utmost importance for space weather services. In particular, providing a continuous and reliable local magnetic activity nowcast is of increasing importance as it can be used to generate alerts for various users, for instance for GNSS‐based applications or to protect electric power grids. This study presents a novel nowcast system for calculating a K‐type index of the local magnetic activity in Belgium. This includes a fully automated computer procedure for digital magnetogram data acquisition, data cleaning, calculating the index, displaying the results, and possibly issuing an alert to interested users, if the storm‐level activity is identified. Novel characteristics are the higher cadence of index calculation, an index reliability estimate based on data quality, and the high availability of the nowcast guaranteed by the operation of two identical instruments at observatories in close proximity. An evaluation of the index nowcast accuracy was carried out, and its results are also presented.

The Geomagnetic Kp Index and Derived Indices of Geomagnetic Activity

AbstractThe geomagnetic Kp index is one of the most extensively used indices of geomagnetic activity, both for scientific and operational purposes. This article reviews the properties of the Kp index and provides a reference for users of the Kp index and associated data products as derived and distributed by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. The near real‐time production of the nowcast Kp index is of particular interest for space weather services and here we describe and evaluate its current setup.

Development of the Project for Reconstruction of the Havana Radio Astronomy Station as Part of the Russian Solar and Space Weather Services

There is a need today to recreate the Havana observational solar station because of the importance of obtaining a regular forecast of solar activity in a wide range of time intervals. The concept of the created observation network and the infrastructure of the monitoring station as a network element are described in detail. The functions of this network will provide continuous observational material for the Russian Sun and Space Weather Services and will be independent of space observations, but capable of using them for quality control. The physical foundations of complex observations for a wide range of heliogeophysical phenomena are considered.