Space-time Changes Research Articles

Space–time isogeometric analysis of tire aerodynamics with complex tread pattern, road contact, and tire deformation

AbstractThe space–time (ST) computational method “ST-SI-TC-IGA” and recently-introduced complex-geometry isogeometric analysis (IGA) mesh generation methods have enabled high-fidelity computational analysis of tire aerodynamics with near-actual tire geometry, road contact, tire deformation, and aerodynamic influence of the car body. The tire geometries used in the computations so far included the longitudinal and transverse grooves. Here, we bring the tire geometry much closer to an actual tire geometry by using a complex, asymmetric tread pattern. The complexity of the tread pattern required an updated version of the NURBS Surface-to-Volume Guided Mesh Generation (NSVGMG) method, which was introduced recently and is robust even in mesh generation for complex shapes with distorted boundaries. The core component of the ST-SI-TC-IGA is the ST Variational Multiscale (ST-VMS) method, and the other key components are the ST Slip Interface (ST-SI) and ST Topology Change (ST-TC) methods and the ST Isogeometric Analysis (ST-IGA). They all play a key role. The ST-TC, uniquely offered by the ST framework, enables moving-mesh computation even with the topology change created by the contact between the tire and the road. It deals with the contact while maintaining high-resolution flow representation near the tire.The computational analysis we present is the first of its kind and shows the effectiveness of the ST-SI-TC-IGA and NSVGMG in tire aerodynamic analysis with complex tread pattern, road contact, and tire deformation.

Perfect fluid locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi Type-I spacetimes admitting concircular vector fields in f(T) gravity

We obtained the solutions of Einstein’s Field Equations (EFEs) for locally rotationally symmetric (LRS) Bianchi type-I perfect fluid spacetimes through the concircular vector fields (CCVFs) in [Formula: see text] gravity. It is shown that such metrics admit CCVFs of 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 15 dimensions. We also calculated the energy density, fluid pressure, torsion scalar [Formula: see text] and the form of the function [Formula: see text]. We did not specify the form of [Formula: see text] for the solution of EFEs but found a particular form of [Formula: see text] during the process of finding the CCVFs. It is observed that energy density and fluid pressure of some solutions are related as [Formula: see text], which means that the universe represented by these spacetime metrics behaves like dark energy models. For other solutions, it is observed that the fluid pressure and energy density can remain positive for particular choices of the constants involved. Thus, in these cases the rate of expansion can slow down due to positive attractive effect. We also calculated the Hubble’s parameter ([Formula: see text]), scalar expansion ([Formula: see text]), shear scalar ([Formula: see text]), anisotropy parameter ([Formula: see text]) and the deceleration parameter ([Formula: see text]) associated with each of the obtained exact LRS Bianchi type-I solutions. It is observed that the physical behavior of the spacetime changes with the number of admitting CCVFs. A constant anisotropic behavior for 15-dimensional CCVFs is observed to change to isotropic nature for seven-dimensional CCVFs.

CO Diffusion Study and Spatial and Temporal Variation Modeling during the Construction Period of the Plateau Railroad Tunnel.

In order to investigate the diffusion law of CO gas in the vicinity of the tunnel boring face of the plateau long tunnel, to improve the efficiency of tunnel smoke exhaust, and to derive the spatial-temporal variation model of CO concentration for predicting the concentration of CO at different times and in different cross sections under specific environments, a CO diffusion model of a tunnel in Yunnan was established by using Ansys Fluent Fluid Simulation Software, and the CO transport characteristics under different conditions were simulated by taking the ventilation time, wind speed, and location of the air ducts as the influencing factors. The results show that the wind flows from the mouth of the wind pipe after the wind speed decreases, the diffusion area increases and arrives at the face of the direction of the rebound in the jet stream of new wind, and the return wind under the joint action of the vortex produced obviously, to reach the wind pipe mouth after the tunnel wind flow field, basically tends to stabilize. When the wind pipe mouth was arranged in the arch waist, 20 m away from the boring face, the inlet wind speed was 9 m/s and the ventilation time was 30 min; the CO concentration in the tunnel was reduced to below the maximum allowable concentration value. Moreover, the concentration of CO in the tunnel at the moment of 15 min of ventilation has a nonlinear positive correlation with the change of distance L from the boring face, while at the cross section of the air outlet of the wind pipe L = 20 m, the ventilation time is from 1 to 30 min and the concentration of CO at the cross section has a nonlinear decreasing trend with the ventilation time, which can be deduced according to the different space-time change models.

Refined assessment of space-time changes, influencing factors and socio-economic impacts of the terrestrial ecosystem quality: A case study of the GBA

The terrestrial ecosystem is the cradle of energy and material basis for human survival and development. However, there are large research deficits in accurately and finely depicting the quality of the terrestrial ecosystem (QTE) and assessing its changing triggers' contribution. Here, we summarized three major principles for selecting image sources in remote sensing data fusion. A continuous 30-m net vegetation productivity (NPP) dataset during 2000–2019 for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was derived by using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach model and pre-fused normalized difference vegetation index. The factors’ contributions to the QTE changes were quantitatively assessed. The role of the QTE in affecting the socio-economic and its behind mechanisms was quantitatively investigated. The results showed that: (1) High-quality images sources are the preference for spatio-temporal fusion of remote sensing data. Images with close month, the same season and year, and sensors should be then selected. Images of different sensors with similar spectral bandwidth, the ones from adjacent years and seasons, can be alternately considered. (2) Fine-resolution NPP has higher accuracy than coarse-resolution NPP and has marked advantages in finely characterizing the QTE. In the past 20 years, the QTE in the GBA has shown a fluctuating increasing trend (0.20 Tg C/yr). (3) Human activities contributed 54.19% of the QTE changes in the GBA, and dominates the QTE changes in the central rapidly urbanizing areas. Residual factors accounted for an overall contribution ratio of 35.71%. Climate change dominants the peripheral forest variations in the GBA. (4) In the GBA, the improvement of QTE has a significant positive socio-economic impact, it contributes to the GDP increment firstly then the GDP aggregate indirectly. Our results highlight that it is of great urgent to estimate long-term continuous NPP with high spatio-temporal resolution globally. Controlling strategies should be implemented to reduce factitious impacts on QTE. High level of ecological and environmental protection promotes the sustainable development.

Space–time flow computation with boundary layer and contact representation: a 10-year history

In computation of flow problems with moving solid surfaces, moving-mesh methods such as the space–time (ST) variational multiscale method enable mesh-resolution control near the solid surfaces and thus high-resolution boundary-layer representation. There was, however, a perception that in computations where the solid surfaces come into contact, high-resolution boundary-layer representation and actual-contact representation without leaving a mesh protection opening between the solid surfaces were mutually exclusive objectives in a practical sense. The introduction of the ST topology change (ST-TC) method in 2013 changed the perception. The two objectives were no longer mutually exclusive. The ST-TC makes moving-mesh computation possible even without leaving a mesh protection opening. The contact is represented as an actual contact and the boundary layer is represented with high resolution. Elements collapse or are reborn as needed, and that is attainable in the ST framework while retaining the computational efficiency at a practical level. The ST-TC now has a 10-year history of achieving the two objectives that were long seen as mutually exclusive. With the ST-TC and other ST computational methods introduced before and after, it has been possible to address many of the challenges encountered in conducting flow analysis with boundary layer and contact representation, in the presence of additional intricacies such as geometric complexity, isogeometric discretization, and rotation or deformation of the solid surfaces. The flow analyses conducted with these ST methods include car and tire aerodynamics with road contact and tire deformation and ventricle-valve-aorta flow. To help widen awareness of these methods and what they can do, we provide an overview of the methods, including those formulated in the context of isogeometric analysis, and the computations performed over the 10-year history of the ST-TC.

A Modified Equivalent Factor Method Evaluation Model Based on Land Use Changes in Tianfu New Area

Scientific understanding of urban ecosystem service value (ESV) is fundamental to building an urban ecological landscape pattern and improving urban environmental quality. The equivalent factor method (EFM) is widely used in evaluating ESV for natural ecosystems. In this study, using the EFM and sensitivity analysis, our research explored the space–time changes in land use and ESV during the planning and construction of Tianfu New Area from 2010 to 2020. This study selected correction factors from natural geography and social economy aspects, and established space–time correction models for standard equivalent coefficients as well as a comprehensive dynamic evaluation model for the ecosystem service value of specific urban areas. In terms of land use, the area of farmland decreased the most. The areas of construction land, grassland, and water bodies increased significantly. The reduced farmland was mainly converted into construction land, followed by grassland and water bodies. Other land use types had smaller changes. Due to the increased area of water bodies and their high-value coefficient per unit area, the urban ecosystem service value showed an increasing trend. During the study period, the conversion of about 1% of land led to about a 0.25% change in the urban ecosystem service value. Farmland in 2010 and water body in 2020 are the most sensitive land factors for ESV in Tianfu New Area. The results might have important insights for urban ecological environment protection and improving ecosystem services during the construction of newly built urban areas.

Spatial-temporal evolution and motivation of ecological vulnerability based on RSEI and GEE in the Jianghan Plain from 2000 to 2020

Recent urbanization and growing food consumption have had a severely detrimental effect on the ecological environment of the Jianghan Plain. The ecological fragility of the Jianghan Plain must be continually monitored for environmental conservation and sustainable development. This study utilized principal component analysis (PCA) to quantitatively assess the ecological vulnerability of the Jianghan Plain based on the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) and analyzed the space-time changes and drivers in the Jianghan Plain from 2000 to 2020 using the Google Earth Engine Platform (GEE). The findings of this research indicated that the ecological vulnerability of the Jianghan Plain from 2000 to 2020 was predominantly Moderate or Strong level. But still, the EVI displayed a changing decreasing trend, revealing a small development towards a healthier ecological environment. The most significant ecological vulnerability deterioration occurred between 2005 and 2010, accounting for roughly 44.90 percent, whereas the highest improvement occurred between 2000 and 2005, occupying approximately 37.52% of the area. Moran’s I of EVI was greater than 0 in Jianghan Plain and displayed a growing and subsequently a falling trend, representing that the spatial distribution of regional ecological vulnerability was strongly correlated and aggregated and that the degree of aggregation has declined. The effects of heat, greenness, wetness, and dryness on the ecological vulnerability of Jianghan Plain were all significant, with greenness and wetness being the primary determinants of the change in Jianghan Plain’s ecological vulnerability. The results of this study can offer a theoretical and scientific foundation for ecological protection and restoration in the Jianghan Plain. Meanwhile, this study also provides a practical and rapid method for monitoring regional ecological vulnerability using RSEI, GEE, and PCA, which can be applied elsewhere for ecological vulnerability evaluation.

Time-delay interferometry infinity for tilt-to-length noise estimation in LISA

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission is a space-borne observatory designed to detect and characterize gravitational wave sources inaccessible to ground-based detectors. The mission relies on laser interferometry to measure changes in space-time. In this context, non-avoidable noise sources within the LISA system, including tilt-to-length (TTL) coupling, reduce the detector’s resolution and complicate achieving the mission’s goals unless appropriate mitigation strategies are implemented. This paper applies time-delay interferometry infinity (TDI-) for TTL noise estimation in LISA and assesses its suitability from the perspective of system identification and calibration for the first time. The recently published TDI- concept indicates a different frequency response within the LISA measurement band compared to the standard methodology of TDI second-generation. Our main contribution is demonstrating the advantages of the TDI- algorithm for TTL noise calibration in space-borne interferometer constellations. Specifically, we show that this algorithm improves the estimation performance of TTL noise due to its frequency behavior while requiring less computation time. The reduction in computational effort afforded by the TDI- algorithm could accelerate the availability of calibrated TDI data for astrophysical analysis if required by the LISA science community. The improvement in estimation performance underscores the concept’s potential to enhance the detector’s sensitivity further.

Computational aerodynamics with isogeometric analysis

AbstractThe superior accuracy isogeometric analysis (IGA) brought to computations in fluid and solid mechanics has been yielding higher fidelity in computational aerodynamics. The increased accuracy we achieve with the IGA is in the flow solution, in representing the problem geometry, and, when we use the IGA basis functions also in time in a space–time (ST) framework, in representing the motion of solid surfaces. It is of course as part of a set of methods that the IGA has been very effective in computational aerodynamics, including complex-geometry aerodynamics. The set of methods we have been using can be categorized into those that serve as a core method, those that increase the accuracy, and those that widen the application range. The core methods are the residual-based variational multiscale (VMS), ST-VMS and arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian VMS methods. The IGA and ST-IGA are examples of the methods that increase the accuracy. The complex-geometry IGA mesh generation method is an example of the methods that widen the application range. The ST Topology Change method is another example of that. We provide an overview of these methods for IGA-based computational aerodynamics and present examples of the computations performed. In computational flow analysis with moving solid surfaces and contact between the solid surfaces, it is a challenge to represent the boundary layers with an accuracy attributed to moving-mesh methods and represent the contact without leaving a mesh protection gap.

Fluctuating maximal God, the problem of inconsistent evil, and spacetime changes

AbstractThe fluctuating maximal God thesis, developed by Jeffrey et al., offers a conception of God that removes the characteristic of divine immutability, allowing the degrees of God's great-making properties to change over time. This god-concept provides a substantial advantage over the ‘static’ maximal God thesis proposed by Yujin Nagasawa if it can adequately sidestep what I call ‘the problem of inconsistent evil’. This problem questions how a static god can be compatible with the inconsistent dispersion of evil in the world. It is founded on the observation that evil is distributed neither equally nor fairly across time, space, and individuals. I distinguish between temporally inconsistent, spatially inconsistent, and interpersonally inconsistent evil and argue that the fluctuating maximal God thesis can account for all types of inconsistent evil if God fluctuates not only through time but also through space.

Grouting slurry diffusion range based on active heating fiber optics monitoring

To quantify the diffusion range of slurry in grouting engineering, an active heating optical fiber (AHFO) monitoring method is proposed. The AHFO is arranged on the coal seam floor. The temperature is taken as the monitoring parameter to monitor the diffusion range and state of slurry in the injected medium. Considering the time-varying characteristics of slurry rheological parameters, the theoretical calculation formula of spherical diffusion radius based on the power-law fluid is deduced. The relationship between the void ratio and grouting diffusion radius is discussed. Considering the influence of the seepage effect, the "water cement ratio change matrix" in the process of mud seepage is derived, and the influence of the space–time change of the slurry water cement ratio on the temperature gradient of the injected medium is studied. According to the factors affecting grouting diffusion, four groups of small three-dimensional simulation tests and one large three-dimensional grouting test are designed to verify the feasibility of the proposed method. The results show that the relative error of the AHFO monitoring radius is between 3.00 and 14.67%, based on the actual diffusion radius. In the large-scale three-dimensional grouting test, the data from AHFO is used to generate the two-dimensional surface of the grouting diffusion form, and the grouting diffusion range is asymmetric oval. Compared with the theoretical calculation results, the maximum relative error of grouting diffusion radius is 9.6%, and AHFO shows prediction accuracy. With the decrease in the water-cement ratio of slurry, the temperature gradient of the injection medium monitored by AHFO increases, showing an obvious space–time effect. The application of AHFO in the grouting simulation test can effectively analyze slurry diffusion in the injected medium.

High-resolution multi-domain space–time isogeometric analysis of car and tire aerodynamics with road contact and tire deformation and rotation

We are presenting high-resolution space–time (ST) isogeometric analysis of car and tire aerodynamics with near-actual tire geometry, road contact, and tire deformation and rotation. The focus in the high-resolution computation is on the tire aerodynamics. The high resolution is not only in space but also in time. The influence of the aerodynamics of the car body comes, in the framework of the Multidomain Method (MDM), from the global computation with near-actual car body and tire geometries, carried out earlier with a reasonable mesh resolution. The high-resolution local computation, carried out for the left set of tires, takes place in a nested MDM sequence over three subdomains. The first subdomain contains the front tire. The second subdomain, with the inflow velocity from the first subdomain, is for the front-tire wake flow. The third subdomain, with the inflow velocity from the second subdomain, contains the rear tire. All other boundary conditions for the three subdomains are extracted from the global computation. The full computational framework is made of the ST Variational Multiscale (ST-VMS) method, ST Slip Interface (ST-SI) and ST Topology Change (ST-TC) methods, ST Isogeometric Analysis (ST-IGA), integrated combinations of these ST methods, element-based mesh relaxation (EBMR), methods for calculating the stabilization parameters and related element lengths targeting IGA discretization, Complex-Geometry IGA Mesh Generation (CGIMG) method, MDM, and the “ST-C” data compression. Except for the last three, these methods were used also in the global computation, and they are playing the same role in the local computation. The ST-TC, for example, as in the global computation, is making the ST moving-mesh computation possible even with contact between the tire and the road, thus enabling high-resolution flow representation near the tire. The CGIMG is making the IGA mesh generation for the complex geometries less arduous. The MDM is reducing the computational cost by focusing the high-resolution locally to where it is needed and also by breaking the local computation into its consecutive portions. The ST-C data compression is making the storage of the data from the global computation less burdensome. The car and tire aerodynamics computation we present shows the effectiveness of the high-resolution computational analysis framework we have built for this class of problems.

Research on Mine Water Dispatching Mode Based on Maximization of Reuse Rate

Coal mining not only produces a large amount of mine water but also may cause water pollution. Therefore, economic treatment and efficient reuse of mine water are the main research directions of the mine area at present, and the realization of optimal dispatching and efficient reuse of mine water is an urgent problem to be solved. Based on the Na Lin mining area as an example, based on maximizing the reuse rate of mine water, summarizes the mine water level fractionation utilization pathway and classification of mine water dispatching mode, build the Na Lin mining area water supply dispatching model, analyzed the Na Lin River No. 2 mining area water supply dispatching model and the space-time change of water dispatching, through comparing with traditional dispatching model, the results showed that: The constructed water dispatching model can significantly improve the mine water recycling rate in Na Lin river mine area, which provides a certain theoretical basis for the study of efficient utilization of mine water.

Contradiction in Einstein’s subjective explanation of the gravitational and kinematic time dilation

Einstein’s special and general relativity are relics from before quantum physics. If forces are transmitted by quanta, this must also apply to gravity. As light consist of quanta, it is only logical that gravitational quanta interact with light. In my article “Cognitive bias in physics with respect to Einstein’s relativity, demonstrated by the famous experiment of Pound and Rebka (1960), which in reality refutes Einstein’s general relativity” [R. G. Ziefle, Phys. Essays 35, 91 (2022)], I could demonstrate that Einstein’s “proper time” t 0 does not refer to reference frames but to gravitational potentials. That is why “Newtonian quantum gravity” [R. G. Ziefle, Phys. Essays 33, 99 (2020)] can predict the correct curvature of a light beam at the surface of the Sun. Also, the phenomena observed at the binary pulsar PSR B1913 + 16 can precisely be predicted by merely applying Kepler’s second law. If gravitational quanta move away from masses with the constant speed c of light, this coincides with Einstein’s postulate of a constant speed c of light with respect to reference frames, as a mass, such as a star or a planet, can also be defined as a reference frame. Therefore, Einstein’s found by chance an artificial and complicated method to calculate changes in space-time caused by motion, which are in reality additional gravitational effects caused by the relative velocity between gravitational quanta emitted by masses and other masses or photons.

Gypsum, mirabilite, and thenardite efflorescences of tuff stone in the underground environment

This study deals with stone deterioration in underground cultural heritage and geoheritage, correlating the origin, compositional features, and space–time changes of salt weathering with the rock properties (petrography and geochemistry) and environmental setting (microclimate and chemistry of rainwater and groundwater). The material of study is Oya-ishi, one of the best-known building stones of Japan; it is a porous and soft acid tuff with a long tradition of use in historical and modern architecture. A number of underground sites of cultural or commercial significance was investigated in central Japan, where Oya stone appears extensively affected by efflorescence growth. The efflorescences are composed of mixed sulfates, including gypsum, mirabilite, and thenardite, whose development depends on the stone–environment interaction. The underground environment is extremely humid and water is the main driving force of salt weathering, having a twofold function. First, it conveys the alteration of the rock components, in particular pyrite, glass (pumice, fiamme, and shards), zeolites (clinoptilolite), clay minerals (smectites), and feldspars, which release SO42−, Na+, and Ca2+ ions. Second, water controls the salt stability and cycles of crystallization/deliquescence and hydration/dehydration, depending on the site depth and seasonal microclimate fluctuations; in this regard, knowing the specific thermodynamic behavior of the phases involved can help predicting where and when salt weathering and the resulting stone damage are most severe.

Climate Supercirculation Of The Earth

The objectives of this paper are, first, to determine the thermal regime on and near the Earth's surface, second, to interpret the space-time changes of climate oscillation in accordance with its cause, trigger, feedback mechanisms and chains.

LORENTZ TRANSFORMATION CHANGE

For relativistic velocities, Galileo’s principle of addition of four-dimensional velocities is valid, and not the Lorentz transformation. In this case, it is impossible to write down the law of conservation of energy with Newton’s potential using the Lorentz transformation. And with the proposed transformation it is possible. In addition, the invariance of the wave equation with respect to the Galilean transformation with four-dimensional velocity is obtained. The GR equation is also invariant under the Galileo transformations of the four-vector. This transformation is a more general case of invariance than the Lorentz transformation. Moreover, the Lorentz transformation is contradictory. For a single massive body in general relativity, the Lorentz transformation is not valid, since the metric tensor is not Galilean. Although in the case of SRT such a transformation is possible. Those. the properties of inertial coordinate systems are violated. For a Galilean transformation of a four-vector for a massive body, a Galilean transformation is possible. Moreover, from the Galilean transformations of the four-vector, one can obtain the Lorentz transformation, but with the use of three-dimensional velocity. Three-dimensional speed is limited by the speed of light in real space, where all tricks with its use come from. The 4D speed is unlimited, and there are no coordinate transformation tricks. If you use the transformation between inertial coordinate systems using a limited threedimensional velocity, then tricks arise with the transformation of space and time. If you use unlimited four-dimensional speed, then there are no tricks with a change in space-time. Four-dimensional speed is a more general concept than three-dimensional, and you need to measure the parameters at four-dimensional speed, then there will be no tricks. Thus, measuring time with the help of four-dimensional velocity, we will not get an increase in the muon lifetime.

Spatio-temporal variation of hydrobiological communities (Animalia: Invertebrata) downstream of the El Quimbo dam, Huila, Colombia

Objective: To analyze preliminarily the hydrobiological communities of macroinvertebrates downstream of the El Quimbo dam, Huila, Colombia, to establish possible changes from the dam construction date to the second year of commissioning, in a period of seven years of samplings (2011-2017). Scope: To establish possible changes in space-time based on the analysis of diversity parameters and the BMWP and ASPT index. Methodology: Aquaticinvertebrates were collected during seven years at six sampling stations using Surber traps in 10 sites along 100 m; the specimens were preserved in ethanol 70%. The diversity parameters (abundance, richness of species, density and Hill numbers) and the BMWP and ASTP indexes were analyzed throughout the sampling period to relate them to some environmental factors. Main results: 36,490 specimens that belong to 11 classes, 26 orders, 79 families and 168 taxa were analyzed. Decreases in the BMWP/Col and ASTP indices were observed in the MGE1, MGE2 and MGE3 sampling stations, during the first phases of the project. Abundance increased significantly in mid 2013, during the river diversion stage, as well as during the operation years, while richness of species and potential richness of species increased at the beginning of 2012, 2015 and 2017, possibly synchronizing with the start of the rainy season. Conclusions: Reductions in the biodiversity indices and parameters were observed in the MGE1, MGE2 and MGE3 stations, in the river diversion and filling phases, which normalized towards the second year of operation of the dam.

A comparison of modelling the spatio-temporal pattern of disease: a case study of schistosomiasis japonica in Anhui Province, China.

The construction of spatio-temporal models can be either descriptive or dynamic. In this study we aim to evaluate the differences in model fitting between a descriptive model and a dynamic model of the transmission for intestinal schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma japonicum in Guichi, Anhui Province, China. The parasitological data at the village level from 1991 to 2014 were obtained by cross-sectional surveys. We used the fixed rank kriging (FRK) model, a descriptive model, and the integro-differential equation (IDE) model, a dynamic model, to explore the space-time changes of schistosomiasis japonica. In both models, the average daily precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index are significantly positively associated with schistosomiasis japonica prevalence, while the distance to water bodies, the hours of daylight and the land surface temperature at daytime were significantly negatively associated. The overall root mean square prediction error of the IDE and FRK models was 0.0035 and 0.0054, respectively, and the correlation reflected by Pearson's correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed values for the IDE model (0.71; p<0.01) was larger than that for the FRK model (0.53; p=0.02). The IDE model fits better in capturing the geographic variation of schistosomiasis japonica. Dynamic spatio-temporal models have the advantage of quantifying the process of disease transmission and may provide more accurate predictions.

Space-time changes in the initial phase of modern climate warming

The initial phase of a temperature growth in different parts of the Earth has been examined. It is found that climate warming in the continental areas began 6–8 years earlier than in the oceanic areas. Climate warming in the sub-polar cyclonic circulation area in the North Atlantic has been started only after the beginning of the positive quasi-30-year phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), i. e. since 2000s. On the basis of the Singular Spectrum Analysis of the air temperature time series the continental areas are found, in which summer air temperature changes are synchronous with AMO on a decadal scale. In those regions, climate warming began with a 10–15 year lag in comparison to other continental areas. The highest level of statistical significance of the correlation between quasi-60-year AMO components and summer air temperatures is observed in Central and Eastern Europe (35–60° N, 10–45° E). This oscillation explains the decadal summer temperature changes within the range of ±(0.5–0.6) °C in Belarus. Climate warming intensifies in summer during the ascending AMO segment, while during the descending segment, which has started since around 2010, the decrease in the rate of growth of summer temperatures should be expected.