Sovereign CDS Spreads Research Articles

Forecasting sovereign CDS spreads with a regime‐switching combination method

AbstractWith the growing importance of the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) market, accurate forecasting of sovereign CDS spreads has gained significant attention. In view of the complex volatility in the series of sovereign CDS spreads, this study presents a novel combination forecasting framework, which introduces time‐varying weights to effectively combine diverse individual models. To identify optimal subsets of models, a mutual information approach is employed, while the regime‐switching method is utilized to integrate the selected models. The proposed method's efficacy is validated using data from 65 countries. Empirical findings underscore the superiority of the proposed approach over benchmark models in terms of both horizontal and directional prediction accuracy, particularly when the sovereign CDS data exhibits a balanced distribution between high and low volatility regimes.

Sovereign momentum currency returns

We study the relationship between cross-sectional sovereign credit risk and currency spot prices. We find that past (up to 12-month average) sovereign credit risk, measured by sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, predict future currency spot returns. In particular, we document a significant cross-sectional currency portfolio spread in excess of the risk-free rate of return (up to 9.6% p.a.) between the highest and the lowest quintile sovereign CDS spreads. Overall, our results indicate that sovereign credit risk is systematically important for currency returns. Moreover, the level of sovereign credit risk has a persistent effect on currency returns which is consistent with a sovereign momentum effect.

European Financial Markets Integration and the Politics of Credit Rating Agencies: An Econometric Approach to Study Microeconomic Dynamics and Sustainability

Abstract On sovereign credit default swaps markets, contagion serves as a sobering reminder of the interconnectedness of global financial systems. Like ripples in a pond, the impact of sovereign default or downgrades can cascade across borders, highlighting the intricate web of dependencies among nations. Utilizing sovereign CDS spreads between 2006-2020 on local European markets, the study employs an event study methodology to assess the effects of rating changes on CDS spreads, focusing on negative events such as sovereign rating downgrades. The findings reveal that negative events have a greater impact on the CDS market than positive events, abnormal returns are higher during economic crises, and states with public debt exceeding the Maastricht criteria experience higher abnormal returns. These results suggest that investors are sensitive to adverse news and risk factors, see opportunities for profit during economic turmoil, and closely monitor fiscal sustainability metrics. Understanding and managing contagion risk in these markets requires not only vigilance but also cooperation and coordination among policymakers and market participants.

Global and local information efficiency: An examination of samuelson's dictum

The global version of Samuelson's Dictum is the conjecture that there is more informational inefficiency for global information than for country-specific information. Consistent with this conjecture, we find that sovereign CDS spreads can predict future sovereign bond yields of their underlying countries and this predictive power arises almost entirely from CDS spread's global—rather than country-specific—component. Noting the striking similarities between the evidence in stock and sovereign bond markets, we examine the underlying mechanism for the results in both markets in parallel and find further similarities across these two markets. In both cases, information appears to flow in one direction: from the sovereign CDS market to stock and sovereign bond markets and not the other way around. Information transmission occurs mostly during the days surrounding announcements of credit-rating or outlook changes, especially downgrades. These results are broadly consistent with a setup in which information acquisition and processing is costly.

From volatility to stability: understanding the role of macroeconomic factors in sovereign CDS spreads

From volatility to stability: understanding the role of macroeconomic factors in sovereign CDS spreads

The asymmetric response of sovereign credit default swaps spreads to risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy shocks

This paper investigates the determinants of sovereign credit default swaps spreads in the case of European countries. More specifically, it purposes to yield insight into how sovereign credit default swaps spreads respond to changes in investor sentiment, risk aversion, and monetary policy shocks during different market states. Using monthly data from May 2009 to December 2021 and running the quantile regression model, we show that risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy affect the sovereign credit risk changes, and their effects vary across countries and markets states. More importantly, Risk aversion and monetary policy display the major asymmetric role in explaining CDS premia. However, limited asymmetric explanatory power is shown for investor sentiment. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that the recent European debt crisis has significantly shaped the sensitivity of the sovereign credit risk spreads to the studied determinants. The findings of this study are helpful for investors in forecasting sovereign European credit spreads and hedging the countries default risk.

Re-examining the Impact of Oil Price Uncertainty on Sovereign CDS Spread of GCC Countries: Accounting for the Asymmetry and Outliers

We examine the effect of oil price uncertainty on sovereign credit risks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Unlike past studies, we employ a structural vector autoregression with multivariate GARCH-in-mean (VAR-GARCH-in-mean) approach after filtering out outliers in the observed series. The findings show that uncertainty in the oil market has a positive impact on the sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads of the GCC countries. Furthermore, we find that GCC sovereign CDS spreads react asymmetrically to positive and negative oil price shocks.

Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on sovereign default risk

This study contributes to pandemic-related risk assessment in terms of evaluating the impact on sovereign default risk of macroeconomic factors, as well as COVID-19 deaths and related fiscal policies in G7+5 countries in 2020. To this end, we derive sovereign probabilities of defaults (PDs) and hazard rates from sovereign credit default swap spreads and constant maturity treasury yields. In all countries except Canada, China, and South Africa, risk-neutral PD and hazard rate curves peaked early in the first wave. We evaluate the fluctuation of the credit risk premium and find that it fluctuates at a lower level in a range from Aa to Ba. The logistic panel regression models show that new COVID-19 deaths and related fiscal policies significantly contribute to sovereign default risk. We explore two correlation-based networks associated with a metric distance. In the sovereign default risk network, central nations in terms of weighted-degree centrality affect other nations through economic activities. To conclude, this study extends financial research on sovereign default risk management under a pandemic.

Does climate change affect sovereign credit risk? International evidence

This paper fills a crucial research gap by investigating the connection between climate change and sovereign credit risk. While the economic implications of climate risk have long been acknowledged, limited attention has been given to understanding its impact on sovereign credit risk. To address this gap, we provide novel empirical evidence on the influence of climate change readiness and vulnerability on sovereign credit default swaps (SCDS). Utilizing a panel quantile regression approach, our study reveals the following key findings: (i) Climate change readiness harms SCDS spreads across all quantiles; (ii) Climate change vulnerability positively affects SCDS spreads, except for the extreme upper quantile; and (iii) The relationship between climate change readiness and SCDS spreads is particularly pronounced in higher quantiles. By shedding light on these relationships, our analysis offers fresh insights into the intricate dynamics between climate change and sovereign credit risk.

The sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads and Chinese Sectors Stock Market: A Causality in Quantile and Dependence Analysis

The sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads and Chinese Sectors Stock Market: A Causality in Quantile and Dependence Analysis

Contagion in the Euro area sovereign CDS market: a spatial approach

PurposeThis paper explores whether the Euro-area sovereign credit default swap market is prone to contagion effects. It investigates whether the sharp increase in sovereign CDS spread of a given country is due to a deterioration of the macroeconomic variables or some form of contagion.Design/methodology/approachFor this purpose, the authors use an innovative approach, i.e. spatial econometrics. Although modeling spatial dependence is an attractive challenge, its application in the field of finance remains limited.FindingsThe empirical findings show strong evidence of spatial dependence highlighting the presence of pure contagion. Furthermore, evidence of wake-up call contagion-increased sensitivity of investors to fundamentals of neighboring countries and shift contagion-increased sensitivity to common factors are well recorded.Originality/valueThis study aims to study a crucial financial issue that gained increased research interest, i.e. financial contagion. A methodological contribution is made by extending the standard spatial Durbin model (SDM) to analyze and differentiate between several forms of contagion. The results can be used to understand how shocks are spreading through countries.

EPU spillovers and sovereign CDS spreads: A cross‐country study

AbstractThis paper examines the spillover effect of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads in a sample of 21 countries. We use a multivariate quantile model to measure EPU spillovers for each country and find that global EPU spillovers have a significant and positive effect on subsequent CDS spreads in both developed and emerging markets. The spillover effect is stronger in developed markets compared to emerging markets. The positive relationship between EPU spillovers and CDS spreads remain significant when controlling for various economic, financial, and political risk factors. Our results are robust to alternative measures of EPU spillovers and sovereign credit risk, across different forecast horizons, and to potential endogeneity resulting from omitted variables.

The effect of economic and political uncertainty on sovereign CDS spreads

This study examines the effect of economic and political uncertainty on sovereign CDS spreads using a novel panel index of world uncertainty. We document that sovereign CDS spreads widen with uncertainty. A 1% increase in uncertainty leads to a 0.86% increase in sovereign CDS spreads. Furthermore, the effect of uncertainty on sovereign CDS spreads is stronger for developed countries, countries with investment-grade credit ratings, and during non-crisis periods. The banking sector is a potential channel through which uncertainty increases sovereign risk. Overall, our results suggest that economic and political uncertainty contributes to both local and global components of sovereign CDS spreads.

Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Currency Forward Bias

We study the links between sovereign credit risk and the currency forward bias. In a setting of defaultable sovereign bonds, we show that the forward bias can be negatively linked to sovereign credit risk. We confirm empirically that the forward bias is negatively associated to sovereign CDS spreads and systematically across both developed and emerging countries but the effect is more pronounced for emerging countries. Furthermore, we show that the forward bias decreases after the inception of the sovereign CDS market. Overall, our results underscore the distinct role of the sovereign CDS market in enhancing price efficiency in currency forward and spot markets.

Corporate QE in Europe during the COVID-19 crisis and debt overhang

This paper finds that shareholders of highly leveraged firms benefit relatively less compared to bondholders from the corporate QE announcements by the ECB and the Bank of England, 2020, as evidence of debt overhang. Firms more heavily impacted by the pandemic gain less from corporate QE, which could also reflect debt overhang. The monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic are complements in the sense that a stronger pandemic-related fiscal response and higher pre-announcement sovereign CDS spreads enhance the positive effects of corporate QE on equity and debt valuations.

A robust examination of COVID‐19 and country risk: Perspectives from the G10 countries

AbstractThis paper examines the effects of COVID‐19 new infections on the financial sovereign risks in the group of ten (G10) countries. The paper utilises panel least squares regression using monthly data over the period February 2020–July 2021. Two sovereign risk measures are examined: the Spread of Government Bond Yields and Sovereign Credit Default Swap spread. The results of the robustness tests show that the spread of the COVID‐19 has affected the sovereign risks significantly and positively. Contagion risks have been extended to exchanges rates and growth rates of international reserves. This paper offers two contributions. First, the results show robust evidence on the impact of COVID‐19 on country's sovereign risks. Second, the severity of COVID‐19 on country's sovereign risks is further. The empirical results carry policy implications that (a) countries must sustain efforts for safeguarding the evolution of COVID‐19 pandemic since it is hindering country's credit worthiness, thus increasing sovereign risks, (b) the G10 countries are advised to follow the zero COVID‐19 strategy, (c) macro prudential measures have to be implemented along with monetary policies that mitigate the sovereign risks and (d) implement social measures to restore the health system and contain the uncertainty on both economic and social grounds.

Reserves and risk: Evidence from China

We consider if Chinese accumulation of reserves is associated with private sector risk taking. Using sovereign credit default swap spreads and stock index prices as indicators of risk taking we provide evidence to suggest that as reserve holdings increase, so does the willingness to take on more risk.

Euro area sovereign bond risk premia before and during the Covid-19 pandemic

We provide a novel modeling framework to decompose euro area sovereign bond yields into five distinct components: (i) expected future short-term risk-free rates and a term premium, (ii) a default risk premium, (iii) redenomination risk premium, (iv) liquidity risk premium, and (v) segmentation (convenience) premium. Identification is achieved by considering sovereign yields jointly with other rates, including sovereign credit default swap spreads with and without redenomination as a credit event trigger. We illustrate our model by studying yield components embedded in German, French, Italian, and Spanish sovereign bonds, before and after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, and by examining the impact of European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and European Union (EU) fiscal policy announcements in response to the pandemic. We find that all five risk premia became sizable following the onset of the pandemic, and that both monetary and fiscal policy announcements had a pronounced effect on yields, mostly through default, redenomination, and segmentation (convenience) premia.

The impact and the contagion effect of natural disasters on sovereign credit risk. An empirical investigation

This paper investigates the relationship between natural disasters and the reaction of sovereign CDS spread in Europe. By applying an event study methodology during the period January 2007–December 2021 on an original database in which we identify 92 natural disasters in 17 European countries, we assess the reaction of the sovereign CDS market to a natural disaster. We find a heterogeneous response of the European sovereign risk to a natural disaster, as the response of the sovereign CDS market differs from region to region. The advent of a natural disaster can increase inequality between the regions due to the higher cost of credit for sovereigns and the reduced scope for manoeuvring public finances. Also, the results of the contagion effect confirm the hypothesis of a cross-border propagation effect, as natural disaster, in general, is not local event but spreads to other countries.

The urgency to borrow in the interbank market

We study the motivations of interbank market traders around the 2007–09 subprime crisis with a new statistic, Trading Urgency, that reveals the underlying urgency to borrow overnight funds. We find that Trading Urgency leads sovereign CDS spreads and reacts to non-standard central bank interventions introduced during the crisis. Our results shed light on the channels that give rise to the sovereign-bank nexus by mapping the linkages between the interbank market and sovereigns. • We study traders’ motivations in the interbank market around the 2007–09 crisis. • We create a statistic called Trading Urgency to measure the urgency to borrow. • Trading Urgency in the interbank market lead sovereign CDS spreads. • Trading Urgency react to non-standard central bank interventions.