Southern Ocean Carbon Sink Research Articles

The Southern Ocean carbon sink has been overestimated in the past three decades

Employing machine learning methods for mapping surface ocean pCO2 has reduced the uncertainty in estimating sea-air CO2 flux. However, a general discrepancy exists between the Southern Ocean carbon sinks derived from pCO2 products and those from biogeochemistry models. Here, by performing a boosting ensemble learning feed-forward neural networks method, we have identified an underestimation of the surface Southern Ocean pCO2 due to notably uneven density of pCO2 measurements between summer and winter, which resulted in about 16% overestimating of Southern Ocean carbon sink over the past three decades. In particular, the Southern Ocean carbon sink since 2010 was notably overestimated by approximately 29%. This overestimation can be mitigated by a winter correction in algorithms, with the average Southern Ocean carbon sink during 1992-2021 corrected to −0.87 PgC yr−1 from the original −1.01 PgC yr−1. Furthermore, the most notable underestimation of surface ocean pCO2 mainly occurred in regions south of 60°S and was hiding under ice cover. As the surface ocean pCO2 under sea ice coverage in the winter is much higher than the atmosphere, if sea ice melts completely, there could be a further reduction of about 0.14 PgC yr−1 in the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Extratropical storms induce carbon outgassing over the Southern Ocean

The strength and variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink is a significant source of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. One barrier to reconciling observations and models is understanding how synoptic weather patterns modulate air-sea carbon exchange. Here, we identify and track storms using atmospheric sea level pressure fields from reanalysis data to assess the role that storms play in driving air-sea CO2 exchange. We examine the main drivers of CO2 fluxes under storm forcing and quantify their contribution to Southern Ocean annual air-sea CO2 fluxes. Our analysis relies on a forced ocean-ice simulation from the Community Earth System Model, as well as CO2 fluxes estimated from Biogeochemical Argo floats. We find that extratropical storms in the Southern Hemisphere induce CO2 outgassing, driven by CO2 disequilibrium. However, this effect is an order of magnitude larger in observations compared to the model and caused by different reasons. Despite large uncertainties in CO2 fluxes and storm statistics, observations suggest a pivotal role of storms in driving Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 outgassing that remains to be well represented in climate models, and needs to be further investigated in observations.

Projected poleward migration of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink region under high emissions

The Southern Ocean is a major region of ocean carbon uptake, but its future changes remain uncertain under climate change. Here we show the projected shift in the Southern Ocean CO2 sink using a suite of Earth System Models, revealing changes in the mechanism, position and seasonality of the carbon uptake. The region of dominant CO2 uptake shifts from the Subtropical to the Antarctic region under the high-emission scenario. The warming-driven sea-ice melt, increased ocean stratification, mixed layer shoaling, and a weaker vertical carbon gradient is projected to together reduce the winter de-gassing in the future, which will trigger the switch from mixing-driven outgassing to solubility-driven uptake in the Antarctic region during the winter season. The future Southern Ocean carbon sink will be poleward-shifted, operating in a hybrid mode between biologically-driven summertime and solubility-driven wintertime uptake with further amplification of biologically-driven uptake due to the increasing Revelle Factor.

Sparse observations induce large biases in estimates of the global ocean CO2 sink: an ocean model subsampling experiment.

Estimates of ocean [Formula: see text] uptake from global ocean biogeochemistry models and [Formula: see text]-based data products differ substantially, especially in high latitudes and in the trend of the [Formula: see text] uptake since 2000. Here, we assess the effect of data sparsity on two [Formula: see text]-based estimates by subsampling output from a global ocean biogeochemistry model. The estimates of the ocean [Formula: see text] uptake are improved from a sampling scheme that mimics present-day sampling to an ideal sampling scheme with 1000 evenly distributed sites. In particular, insufficient sampling has given rise to strong biases in the trend of the ocean carbon sink in the [Formula: see text] products. The overestimation of the [Formula: see text] flux trend by 20-35% globally and 50-130% in the Southern Ocean with the present-day sampling is reduced to less than [Formula: see text] with the ideal sampling scheme. A substantial overestimation of the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink occurs in one product and appears related to a skewed data distribution in [Formula: see text] space. With the ideal sampling, the bias in the mean [Formula: see text] flux is reduced from 9-12% to 2-9% globally and from 14-26% to 5-17% in the Southern Ocean. On top of that, discrepancies of about [Formula: see text] (15%) persist due to uncertainties in the gas-exchange calculation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Biogenic carbon pool production maintains the Southern Ocean carbon sink

Through biological activity, marine dissolved inorganic carbon(DIC) is transformed into different types of biogenic carbon available for export to the ocean interior, including particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC). Each biogenic carbon pool has a different export efficiency that impacts the vertical ocean carbon gradient and drives natural air-sea carbon dioxide gas (CO2) exchange. In the Southern Ocean (SO), which presently accounts for ~40% of the anthropogenic ocean carbon sink, it is unclear how the production of each biogenic carbon pool contributes to the contemporary air-sea CO2 exchange. Based on 107 independent observations of the seasonal cycle from 63 biogeochemical profiling floats, we provide the basin-scale estimate of distinct biogenic carbon pool production. We find significant meridional variability with enhanced POC production in the subantarctic and polar Antarctic sectorsand enhanced DOC production in the subtropical and sea-ice-dominated sectors. PIC production peaks between 47°S and 57°S near the "great calcite belt." Relative to an abiotic SO, organic carbon production enhances CO2 uptake by 2.80 ± 0.28 Pg C y-1, while PIC production diminishes CO2 uptake by 0.27 ± 0.21 Pg C y-1. Without organic carbon production, the SO would be a CO2 source to the atmosphere. Our findings emphasize the importance of DOC and PIC production, in addition to the well-recognized role of POC production, in shaping the influence of carbon export on air-sea CO2 exchange.

Surface ocean carbon budget in the 2017 south Georgia diatom bloom: Observations and validation of profiling biogeochemical argo floats

Estimates of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) derived from biogeochemical Argo floats have the potential to improve our knowledge of the highly variable and partially observed Southern Ocean carbon sink through sampling at improved temporal and spatial resolution. Here we use the data from six biogeochemical Argo floats to characterise near-surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations and fluxes at the site of an intense (Chl-a >3 mg m−3) mesoscale diatom bloom situated northwest of South Georgia. Concurrently, we provide independent analysis and validation of the methodology used by the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observational and Modelling (SOCCOM) project for deriving surface pCO2 from float-based pH and oxygen measurements. We compare the float observations with co-located ship data from bottle samples over a month-long period. When compared to data sampled within 24 h and 25 km of each float profile, we find good agreement with a mean offset of −0.005 ± 0.018 (1σ) between float pH and bottle-derived pH. This translates to comparable pCO2 estimates between ship measurements and floats with a mean difference of 2.6 ± 12.8 (1σ) μatm, providing support for the use of biogeochemical Argo float data to supplement shipboard pCO2 measurements in the Southern Ocean. Based on float-derived pCO2 we calculate a sizeable local flux of CO2 of 24 ± 7 mmol C m−2 d−1 (over a 27-day period) from the atmosphere into the surface mixed layer, driven by a large air-sea pCO2 gradient and strong but variable winds. Despite the considerable air-sea flux, the local mixed layer carbon budget appears to be dominated by entrainment and detrainment of carbon-rich waters into and out of the mixed layer. However, given the large uncertainties associated with these fluxes and the significant challenges associated with closing the mixed layer budget, further research is required to refine float-based mixed layer DIC fluxes.

Enhance seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 by the changing Southern Ocean carbon sink.

The enhanced seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 has been viewed so far primarily as a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. Yet, analyses of atmospheric CO2 records from 49 stations between 1980 and 2018 reveal substantial trends and variations in this amplitude globally. While no significant trends can be discerned before 2000 in most places, strong positive trends emerge after 2000 in the southern high latitudes. Using factorial simulations with an atmospheric transport model and analyses of surface ocean Pco2 observations, we show that the increase is best explained by the onset of increasing seasonality of air-sea CO2 exchange over the Southern Ocean around 2000. Underlying these changes is the long-term ocean acidification trend that tends to enhance the seasonality of the air-sea fluxes, but this trend is modified by the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. The seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 thus emerge as a sensitive recorder of the variations of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Sea Ice Suppression of CO2 Outgassing in the West Antarctic Peninsula: Implications For The Evolving Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

AbstractThe Southern Ocean plays an important role in the uptake of atmospheric CO2. In seasonally ice‐covered regions, estimates of air‐sea exchange remain uncertain in part because of a lack of observations outside the summer season. Here we present new estimates of air‐sea CO2 flux in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) from an autonomous mooring on the continental shelf. In summer, the WAP is a sink for atmospheric CO2 followed by a slow return to atmospheric equilibrium in autumn and winter. Outgassing is almost entirely suppressed by ice cover from June through October, resulting in a modest net annual CO2 sink. Model projections indicate sea ice formation will occur later in the season in the coming decades potentially weakening the net oceanic CO2 sink. Interannual variability in the WAP is significant, highlighting the importance of sustained observations of air‐sea exchange in this rapidly changing region of the Southern Ocean.

Southward migration of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds corresponds with warming climate over centennial timescales

Recent changes in the strength and location of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) have been linked to continental droughts and wildfires, changes in the Southern Ocean carbon sink, sea ice extent, ocean circulation, and ice shelf stability. Despite their critical role, our ability to predict their impacts under future climates is limited by a lack of data on SHW behaviour over centennial timescales. Here, we present a 700-year record of changes in SHW intensity from sub-Antarctic Marion Island using diatom and geochemical proxies and compare it with paleoclimate records and recent instrumental data. During cool periods, such as the Little Ice Age (c. 1400–1870 CE), the winds weakened and shifted towards the equator, and during warm periods they intensified and migrated poleward. These results imply that changes in the latitudinal temperature gradient drive century-scale SHW migrations, and that intensification of impacts can be anticipated in the coming century.

Southern Ocean carbon sink enhanced by sea-ice feedbacks at the Antarctic Cold Reversal

The Southern Ocean occupies some 14% of the planet’s surface and plays a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle and climate. It provides a direct connection to the deep ocean carbon reservoir through biogeochemical processes that include surface primary productivity, remineralisation at depth, and the upwelling of carbon-rich water masses. However, the role of these different processes in modulating past and future air-sea carbon flux remains poorly understood. A key period in this regard is the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR, 14.6-12.7 kyr BP), a period of mid- to high-latitude cooling that coincided with a sustained plateau in deglacial atmospheric rise in CO2 globally. Here we reconstruct high-latitude Southern Ocean surface productivity from marine derived aerosols captured in a highly-resolved horizontal ice core. Our multiproxy reconstruction reveals a coherent signal of enhanced productivity across the ACR. Transient climate modelling indicates this period coincided with maximum seasonal variability in sea-ice extent, implying that sea-ice biological feedbacks enhanced CO2 sequestration, creating a significant regional marine carbon sink that contributed to the sustained plateau in CO2 at the ACR. Our results highlights the role Antarctic sea ice plays in controlling global CO2, and demonstrates the need to incorporate such feedbacks in climate-carbon models.

Holocene dynamics of the southern westerly winds over the Indian Ocean inferred from a peat dust deposition record

The southern westerly winds (SWW) play a major role in climate variability in Southern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes, regulating rainfall, ocean circulation, and the Southern Ocean carbon sink. Despite their importance, little is known about millennial scale changes in the SWW and how they have influenced the climate system in the past and interacted with the Earth’s surface elements, such as dust, nutrients and carbon. Here we present a dust record from a 6.6 kyr old peat core in Amsterdam Island (AMS) situated at the northern edge of the SWW (37°S) in the Southern Indian Ocean. Mineral dust flux was used to track atmospheric dust production, long-distance transport and subsequent deposition. Dust provenance was determined from rare earth element (REE) and Nd isotopic signatures (εNd) in the peat core, compared with a reference dataset of Southern Hemisphere dust sources. Using a multi-proxy mixing model, the εNd and REE ratios show a relatively uniform mixture of ca. 40% local, 15% Southern African and 45% Southern South American dust sources since 6.6 cal kyr BP. However, from 1910 AD onwards, there is a doubling in the contribution from Southern Africa (32%). Two mineral dust flux minima occur at 6.2–4.9 cal kyr BP and 3.9–2.7 cal kyr BP, interpreted as periods with equatorward-shifted and/or strengthened SWW at the northern edge of the wind belt. Conversely, periods of higher dust flux at 6.6–6.2 cal kyr BP, 4.9–3.9 cal kyr BP, and 1.4 cal kyr BP onwards are interpreted as poleward-shifted and/or weakened SWW. These interpretations are based on the findings that higher (lower) wind speeds lead to enhanced (less) removal of distal dust on the way to AMS, by wet deposition and turbulence. Published Holocene SWW records at the northern edge of the wind belt (33–41°S) covering South-America, Southern-Africa and Australia, show much variability over the last 6.6 kyr. We suggest this reflects complex regional climate variability in the different SH longitudinal sectors, indicating that SWW are not zonally homogeneous at the northern edge of the wind belt. The recent shift in dust provenance is not accompanied by enhanced total dust deposition at AMS. We therefore suggest that human impact (e.g., land use changes) and drier climate conditions in Southern Africa have led to enhanced dust mobilization.

Regional Wind Variability Modulates the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

The Southern Ocean south of 35°S accounts for approximately half of the annual oceanic carbon uptake, thereby substantially mitigating the effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The intensity of this important carbon sink varies considerably on inter-annual to decadal timescales. However, the drivers of this variability are still debated, challenging our ability to accurately predict the future role of the Southern Ocean in absorbing atmospheric carbon. Analysing mapped sea-air CO2 fluxes, estimated from upscaled surface ocean CO2 measurements, we find that the overall Southern Ocean carbon sink has weakened since ~2011, reversing the trend of the reinvigoration period of the 2000s. Although we find significant regional positive and negative responses of the Southern Ocean carbon uptake to changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) over the past 35 years, the net effect of the SAM on the Southern Ocean carbon sink variability is approximately zero, due to the opposing effects of enhanced outgassing in upwelling regions and enhanced carbon uptake elsewhere. Instead, regional shifts in sea level pressure, linked to zonal wavenumber 3 (ZW3) and related changes in surface winds substantially contribute to the inter-annual to decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

The Variable Southern Ocean Carbon Sink.

The CO2 uptake by the Southern Ocean (<35°S) varies substantially on all timescales and is a major determinant of the variations of the global ocean carbon sink. Particularly strong are the decadal changes characterized by a weakening period of the Southern Ocean carbon sink in the 1990s and a rebound after 2000. The weakening in the 1990s resulted primarily from a southward shift of the westerlies that enhanced the upwelling and outgassing of respired (i.e., natural) CO2. The concurrent reduction in the storage rate of anthropogenic CO2 in the mode and intermediate waters south of 35°S suggests that this shift also decreased the uptake of anthropogenic CO2. The rebound and the subsequent strong, decade-long reinvigoration of the carbon sink appear to have been driven by cooling in the Pacific Ocean, enhanced stratification in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sectors, and a reduced overturning. Current-generation ocean models generally do not reproduce these variations and are poorly skilled at making decadal predictions in this region.

Holocene dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds and possible links to CO2 outgassing

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) play an important role in regulating the capacity of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. They modulate upwelling of carbon-rich deep water and, with sea ice, determine the ocean surface area available for air–sea gas exchange. Some models indicate that the current strengthening and poleward shift of these winds will weaken the carbon sink. If correct, centennial- to millennial-scale reconstructions of the SHW intensity should be linked with past changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and sea ice. Here we present a 12,300-year reconstruction of wind strength based on three independent proxies that track inputs of sea-salt aerosols and minerogenic particles accumulating in lake sediments on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Between about 12.1 thousand years ago (ka) and 11.2 ka, and since about 7 ka, the wind intensities were above their long-term mean and corresponded with increasing atmospheric CO2. Conversely, from about 11.2 to 7.2 ka, the wind intensities were below their long-term mean and corresponded with decreasing atmospheric CO2. These observations are consistent with model inferences of enhanced SHW contributing to the long-term outgassing of CO2 from the Southern Ocean. The strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds varied throughout the Holocene, according to a reconstruction from lake sediments, with periods of stronger winds coincident with higher atmospheric CO2 levels.

Shedding Light on the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

One of the world’s largest carbon sinks is still poorly understood.

Observation‐Based Trends of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

AbstractThe Southern Ocean (SO) carbon sink has strengthened substantially since the year 2000, following a decade of a weakening trend. However, the surface ocean pCO2 data underlying this trend reversal are sparse, requiring a substantial amount of extrapolation to map the data. Here we use nine different pCO2 mapping products to investigate the SO trends and their sensitivity to the mapping procedure. We find a robust temporal coherence for the entire SO, with eight of the nine products agreeing on the sign of the decadal trends, that is, a weakening CO2 sink trend in the 1990s (on average 0.22 ± 0.24 Pg C yr−1 decade−1), and a strengthening sink trend during the 2000s (−0.35 ± 0.23 Pg C yr−1 decade−1). Spatially, the multiproduct mean reveals rather uniform trends, but the confidence is limited, given the small number of statistically significant trends from the individual products, particularly during the data‐sparse 1990–1999 period.

Sixty years of radiocarbon dioxide measurements at Wellington, New Zealand: 1954–2014

Abstract. We present 60 years of Δ14CO2 measurements from Wellington, New Zealand (41° S, 175° E). The record has been extended and fully revised. New measurements have been used to evaluate the existing record and to replace original measurements where warranted. This is the earliest direct atmospheric Δ14CO2 record and records the rise of the 14C bomb spike and the subsequent decline in Δ14CO2 as bomb 14C moved throughout the carbon cycle and increasing fossil fuel CO2 emissions further decreased atmospheric Δ14CO2. The initially large seasonal cycle in the 1960s reduces in amplitude and eventually reverses in phase, resulting in a small seasonal cycle of about 2 ‰ in the 2000s. The seasonal cycle at Wellington is dominated by the seasonality of cross-tropopause transport and differs slightly from that at Cape Grim, Australia, which is influenced by anthropogenic sources in winter. Δ14CO2 at Cape Grim and Wellington show very similar trends, with significant differences only during periods of known measurement uncertainty. In contrast, similar clean-air sites in the Northern Hemisphere show a higher and earlier bomb 14C peak, consistent with a 1.4-year interhemispheric exchange time. From the 1970s until the early 2000s, the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Δ14CO2 were quite similar, apparently due to the balance of 14C-free fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the north and 14C-depleted ocean upwelling in the south. The Southern Hemisphere sites have shown a consistent and marked elevation above the Northern Hemisphere sites since the early 2000s, which is most likely due to reduced upwelling of 14C-depleted and carbon-rich deep waters in the Southern Ocean, although an underestimate of fossil fuel CO2 emissions or changes in biospheric exchange are also possible explanations. This developing Δ14CO2 interhemispheric gradient is consistent with recent studies that indicate a reinvigorated Southern Ocean carbon sink since the mid-2000s and suggests that the upwelling of deep waters plays an important role in this change.

The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Several studies have suggested that the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean-the ocean's strongest region for the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 -has weakened in recent decades. We demonstrated, on the basis of multidecadal analyses of surface ocean CO2 observations, that this weakening trend stopped around 2002, and by 2012, the Southern Ocean had regained its expected strength based on the growth of atmospheric CO2. All three Southern Ocean sectors have contributed to this reinvigoration of the carbon sink, yet differences in the processes between sectors exist, related to a tendency toward a zonally more asymmetric atmospheric circulation. The large decadal variations in the Southern Ocean carbon sink suggest a rather dynamic ocean carbon cycle that varies more in time than previously recognized.

Variability of primary production and air‐sea CO2 flux in the Southern Ocean

Biogeochemical cycling in the Southern Ocean (SO) plays a key role in the global sea‐air CO2balance and in the ocean anthropogenic carbon inventory (Ito et al., 2010; Khatiwala et al., 2009; Sarmiento et al., 2004). Some previous studies suggest a decreasing trend in the Southern Ocean carbon sink (Le Quéré et al., 2007; Lovenduski et al., 2007; Wetzel et al., 2005). We investigate the interannual and decadal variations in sea‐air CO2flux and phytoplankton production in the SO with hindcast simulations by an ocean biogeochemical model. Decreasing trends in sinking POC and primary production are found from 1979 to 2003, concurrent with a decreasing trend in carbon uptake from the atmosphere. Simulations show substantial interannual and decadal variability in productivity. The sea‐air CO2flux is significantly correlated with sinking POC, especially in high productivity regions of the Southern Ocean. Both mixed layer depths and iron concentrations are important to the long‐term trends in production and phytoplankton community structure. Sea ice cover also plays an important role at high latitudes. Variability in dust deposition in recent decades has little influence on total SO productivity and carbon uptake, however, there are regional impacts near dust source regions. Accurately representing mixed layer depths and their impacts on phytoplankton light stress are critical for understanding how climate change impacts SO ecosystems and biogeochemistry.

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide transport in the Southern Ocean driven by Ekman flow

The Southern Ocean, with its large surface area and vigorous overturning circulation, is potentially a substantial sink of anthropogenic CO(2) (refs 1-4). Despite its importance, the mechanism and pathways of anthropogenic CO(2) uptake and transport are poorly understood. Regulation of the Southern Ocean carbon sink by the wind-driven Ekman flow, mesoscale eddies and their interaction is under debate. Here we use a high-resolution ocean circulation and carbon cycle model to address the mechanisms controlling the Southern Ocean sink of anthropogenic CO(2). The focus of our study is on the intra-annual variability in anthropogenic CO(2) over a two-year time period. We show that the pattern of carbon uptake is correlated with the oceanic vertical exchange. Zonally integrated carbon uptake peaks at the Antarctic polar front. The carbon is then advected away from the uptake regions by the circulation of the Southern Ocean, which is controlled by the interplay among Ekman flow, ocean eddies and subduction of water masses. Although lateral carbon fluxes are locally dominated by the imprint of mesoscale eddies, the Ekman transport is the primary mechanism for the zonally integrated, cross-frontal transport of anthropogenic CO(2). Intra-annual variability of the cross-frontal transport is dominated by the Ekman flow with little compensation from eddies. A budget analysis in the density coordinate highlights the importance of wind-driven transport across the polar front and subduction at the subtropical front. Our results suggest intimate connections between oceanic carbon uptake and climate variability through the temporal variability of Ekman transport.