Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere Research Articles

Compensating atmospheric adjustments reduce the volcanic forcing from Hunga stratospheric water vapor enhancement.

The 2022 eruption of the Hunga submarine volcano injected an unprecedented volume of water vapor into the stratosphere, presenting a unique, natural experiment for ascertaining the influence of stratospheric water vapor within the global radiation budget. This study examines the radiative forcings of the Hunga stratospheric water vapor enhancement, comparing stratosphere-adjusted radiative forcing derived from offline methods to an effective radiative forcing derived from Earth System Model simulations. Assuming a uniform 2 parts per million mass mixing ratio increase of water vapor in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, we estimated the instantaneous, stratosphere-adjusted, and overall effective radiative forcing to be -0.04, 0.08, and 0.05 W m-2, respectively. The lower magnitude of the positive volcanic stratospheric water vapor effective radiative forcing is due to compensating effects from atmospheric adjustments. Ensemble simulations of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model suggest a surface warming of 0.05 K, affirming a limited influence on global mean surface temperature from the volcanic stratospheric water vapor injection.

Machine Learning Emulation of Subgrid‐Scale Orographic Gravity Wave Drag in a General Circulation Model With Middle Atmosphere Extension

AbstractGravity wave parameterizations contribute to uncertainties in middle atmosphere modeling. To investigate the potential for using machine learning to represent atmospheric gravity waves and the impact of implementing such schemes in a general circulation model (GCM), we train a random forest (RF) emulator on outputs from an existing complex parameterization scheme for orographic gravity wave drag (GWD). The performance of the RF emulator is then evaluated with a focus on stratospheric climatology and variability in climate simulations from the middle atmosphere resolving Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric Circulation Model. In offline tests, the predicted orographic GWD by the RF agrees remarkably well with the target GWD throughout the troposphere and the middle atmosphere. The RF emulator can reproduce the observed climatology of zonal‐mean wind and air temperature in the GCM simulation, as well as its target scheme. Compared to the target orographic GWD parameterization scheme, the RF emulator can reproduce the breakdown of the polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using machine learning to emulate parameterized orographic GWD for modeling the stratosphere with a GCM.

Interplay between Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation and Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Warming

Abstract The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) features more distinctive and complex propagation characteristics than its wintertime counterpart, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). While the relationship between the MJO and the Arctic stratosphere during boreal winter has been widely documented, the linkage between the BSISO and the Antarctic stratosphere during austral winter has not been extensively discussed. Here, after identifying the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric polar vortex warming (SPVW) events, we reveal the bidirectional connection between BSISO and SPVW. Before onset of the SPVW events, the occurrence frequency and amplitude of BSISO phase 5 (P5) shows a significant increase. The most significant responses of the SH polar stratospheric temperature to the BSISO are found about 10 days after BSISO P5. Thus, to some extent, BSISO P5 can be regarded as a precursor to the SH SPVW event, which is attributed to the enhanced upward propagation and dissipation of planetary waves in the SH stratosphere induced by the BSISO P5. After onset of the SPVW events, a significant increase in the occurrence and amplitude of BSISO P6 is observed, corresponding to the enhanced convection over the South China Sea and southern Philippine Sea. Tropical upwelling associated with the strengthened Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) induced by the SPVW tends to result in unstable circumstances in the tropical upper troposphere. Then the high correlation between static stability at 150 hPa and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies over the South China Sea and southern Philippine Sea provides robust evidence that the intensity of convective activity in the tropics can indeed be modulated by the variability in SH stratospheric polar vortex. Significance Statement The relationship between the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar stratosphere remains unclear. After selecting the stratospheric polar vortex warming (SPVW) events, we reveal the two-way connection between BSISO and SPVW. Before the SPVW, the significant increase in occurrence and amplitude of BSISO phase 5 (P5) suggests that BSISO P5 can be regarded as a precursor to the weakened polar vortex. After the SPVW, the significant increase in occurrence and amplitude of BSISO phase 6 (P6) establishes that environmental alteration in tropical upper troposphere induced by the SPVW provides a favorable condition for the growth of ensuing convective activity. The results here help us better understand the potential link between stratospheric polar vortex and tropical intraseasonal oscillation.

Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean

In a warming climate, the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation (GMOC) is expected to change significantly with a risk of disrupting the global redistribution of ocean properties that sustains marine ecosystems, carbon cycle, and others. Here we make a novel attempt to utilize a diagnostic ocean & sea-ice model to estimate the GMOC and its interdecadal changes since the mid-1950s that are consistent with historical hydrographic observations. We find that significant changes in the GMOC have already occurred, most notably in the upper and lower overturning cells in the Southern Ocean. The former has expanded poleward and into denser water and strengthened by 3–4 Sv since the mid-1970s, while the latter has contracted and weakened by a similar rate during the same period. These changes are driven by the increasing Southern Hemisphere (SH) Ferrel cell and associated increases in the westerlies and the surface buoyancy loss over its sinking branch, and the increasing Antarctic meltwater discharge, in response to ozone depletion in the SH stratosphere and increasing atmospheric CO2. A large-scale readjustment of the GMOC seems to be underway in the South Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans since the mid-2000s in response to the Southern Ocean changes.

Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Warmings and Coupling to the Mesosphere‐Lower Thermosphere

AbstractTwenty six years of medium frequency (MF) radar wind measurements made from 1994 to 2019 at Davis Station (68.6°S, 77.9°E) are used to study the mean response of the mesosphere‐lower thermosphere to stratospheric warmings in the Southern Hemisphere. Warming events were detected using Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) data with a systematic search for reductions in the zonal‐mean circulation at 60°S and corresponding increases in polar temperatures. Some 37 events were identified, including the 2002 major warming and the large event of 2019, with an average of 1–2 warmings per year. At the 10 hPa level, the polar cap temperature increases ranged from 3 to 28 K, with a mean value of 12 K, while the zonal wind speed reductions varied between −6 and −43 ms−1, with a mean value of −15 ms−1. Peak values occurred near 40 km. Warmings occurred mainly between August and October, with a small peak in occurrence in April/May. The MF radar data showed an average reduction in the mesospheric eastward winds of about 5–7 ms−1 at heights near 75 km that occurred 3–4 days prior to the changes in the stratosphere. Warming events were driven by episodic intensifications in planetary wave amplitudes, with quasi‐stationary planetary scale waves (PW) 1 being especially important. PW Eliassen‐Palm flux divergences show a systematic behavior with time and height that is consistent with a poleward residual circulation and downwelling over the pole prior to the warming events and an equatorward flow and upwelling after the peak of the events.

Global Middle-Atmosphere Response to Winter Stratospheric Variability in SABER and MLS Mean Temperature

Abstract Satellite observations of middle-atmosphere temperature are used to investigate the short-term global response to planetary wave activity in the winter stratosphere. The focus is on the relation between variations in the winter and summer hemispheres. The analysis uses observations from Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) for 2002–21 and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) for 2004–21, and reanalysis temperatures and winds from MERRA-2 for 2002–21. We calculate temporal correlations of the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence in the winter stratosphere with global temperature. Results show a robust perturbation extending to midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. An increase in wave forcing is followed by a decrease in temperatures over the depth of the stratosphere in the SH, peaking at a lag of 3 days. Summer mesospheric temperature perturbations of the opposite sign are seen in many winters. Comparable signals in the NH summer middle-atmosphere are present during some SH winters but are weaker and less consistent than those in the SH during NH winter. A diagnostic evaluation of the patterns of correlation, the mesospheric zonal winds, and the stability criteria suggests that the temperature perturbations in the midlatitude summer mesosphere are more closely associated with the summer stratosphere directly below than with the wave activity in the winter stratosphere. This suggests that the interhemispheric coupling in the stratosphere is driving or contributing to the coupling between the winter stratosphere and the summer mesosphere that has been reported in several investigations. Significance Statement There are many instances in which one part of the atmosphere is found to regularly respond to perturbations occurring in a distant region. In this study, we use observations to investigate one such pattern: temperature changes at high altitude (60–100 km) in the summer that follow dynamical changes near the winter pole at 40–60 km. Such analysis is useful to understand which physical processes contribute to the global connectivity and variability of the atmosphere.

Dynamical evolution of a minor sudden stratospheric warming in the Southern Hemisphere in 2019

Abstract. A major strong sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurred in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere in 2002 (hereafter referred to as SSW2002), which is one of the most unusual winters in the SH. Following several warmings, the polar vortex broke down in midwinter. Eastward-traveling waves and their interaction with quasi-stationary planetary waves played an important role during this event. This study analyzed the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset to examine the SSW event that occurred in the SH in 2019 (hereafter referred to as SSW2019). In 2019, a rapid temperature increase and decelerated westerly winds were observed at the polar cap, but since there was no reversal of westerly winds to easterly winds at 60∘ S in the middle to lower stratosphere, the SSW2019 was classified as a minor warming event. The results showed that quasi-stationary planetary waves of zonal wavenumber 1 developed during the SSW2019. The strong vertical component of the Eliassen–Palm flux with zonal wavenumber 1 is indicative of pronounced propagation of planetary waves to the stratosphere. The wave driving in September 2019 was larger than that of the major SSW event in 2002. Major SSWs tend to accompany preceding minor warmings, preconditioning, which changes the zonal flow that weaken the polar night jet as seen in SSW2002. A similar preconditioning was hardly observed in SSW2019. The strong wave driving in SSW2019 occurred in high latitudes. Waveguides (i.e., positive values of the refractive index squared) were found at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere during the warming period, which provided favorable conditions for quasi-stationary planetary waves to propagate upward and poleward.

On the Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Response to ENSO and Its Impacts on Tropospheric Circulation

Abstract As the leading mode of Pacific variability, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes vast and widespread climatic impacts, including in the stratosphere. Following discovery of a stratospheric pathway of ENSO to the Northern Hemisphere surface, here we aim to investigate if there is a substantial Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric pathway in relation to austral winter ENSO events. Large stratospheric anomalies connected to ENSO occur on average at high SH latitudes as early as August, peaking at around 10 hPa. An overall colder austral spring Antarctic stratosphere is generally associated with the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, and vice versa. This behavior is robust among reanalysis and six separate model ensembles encompassing two different model frameworks. A stratospheric pathway is identified by separating ENSO events that exhibit a stratospheric anomaly from those that do not and comparing to stratospheric extremes that occur during neutral ENSO years. The tropospheric eddy-driven jet response to the stratospheric ENSO pathway is the most robust in the spring following a La Niña, but extends into summer, and is more zonally symmetric compared to the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection. The magnitude of the stratospheric pathway is weaker compared to the tropospheric pathway and therefore, when it is present, has a secondary role. For context, the magnitude is approximately half that of the eddy-driven jet modulation due to austral spring ozone depletion in the model simulations. This work establishes that the stratospheric circulation acts as an intermediary in coupling ENSO variability to variations in the austral spring and summer tropospheric circulation.

Prolonged and Pervasive Perturbations in the Composition of the Southern Hemisphere Midlatitude Lower Stratosphere From the Australian New Year's Fires

AbstractThe 2019/2020 Australian New Year's wildfires injected record amounts of smoke and biomass burning products into the lower stratosphere. The Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) tracked the evolution of distinct plumes of fire–influenced air as they rapidly spiraled up to the mid–stratosphere. In the months following the fires, smoke spread throughout the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere. We contrast the evolution of the SH midlatitude lower stratosphere in 2020 with the 17–year MLS record. Long after the coherent plumes dispersed, data from MLS and other satellite instruments show unprecedented persistent and pervasive depletion in HCl (50%–60% below climatology) and enhancements in ClO and ClONO2 that were not transport related; peak anomalies occurred in mid–2020. We conclude that the observed perturbations likely arose from heterogeneous chlorine activation on widespread smoke particles. The sustained chlorine activation was far weaker than in typical winter polar vortices, inducing at most minor changes in ozone.

Contrasting Effects of Indian Ocean Basin and Dipole Modes on the Stratosphere

AbstractThe stratospheric impact of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Indian Ocean has attracted extensive attention. Recent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean is characterized by increases in both the magnitude and zonal gradient, which is related to the variability in the positive phase of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and Indian Ocean dipole mode (IOD). Yet, previous studies mainly focused on the stratospheric impact of the IOBM. Using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (version 4), this study explores the impact of positive IOD events on the stratosphere and compares it with the IOBM. Results show that the IOBM (IOD) serves to dry (moisten) the tropical lower stratosphere on the annual average. The moistening (drying) of the lower stratosphere in response to IOBM occurs mainly in winter and spring (autumn), while the IOD exerts a moistening effect in winter. Both modes can enhance the northern stratospheric polar vortex, and the effect of IOD is close to that of IOBM, although SST anomalies associated with the IOD are smaller. This implies that the Indian Ocean SST gradient exerts a greater influence on the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere than does the Indian Ocean SST magnitude. Moreover, both modes weaken the southern stratospheric polar vortex, but the effect of IOD is much smaller since its impact on stationary waves is weak. Contrary to the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere, the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere is more sensitive to the Indian Ocean SST magnitude than to the SST gradient.

Wildfire Smoke Highlights Troposphere‐to‐Stratosphere Pathway

AbstractFollowing the 2020 wildfires in Australia, an extremely large amount of smoke entered the stratosphere and was dispersed throughout the southern hemisphere stratosphere. However, the pathway and entry point of the smoke into the stratosphere and the underlying mechanism remained unclear. Here, Lagrangian trajectory analysis is used to examine the flow downstream of the fires in the south Pacific, where the smoke was detected. We find that tropical cyclone Sarai merged with an extratropical cyclone to form a troposphere‐wide cyclonic system, with a deep potential vorticity cutoff above it. The smoke first traveled in the isentropic layer between 340 and 350 °K. Having reached the cyclone, the smoke circulated and entered the stratosphere through a dip in the tropopause height within the cutoff. The cyclone described in this case study is not uncommon in these regions, possibly underlining the importance of this mechanism for troposphere‐to‐stratosphere exchange.

The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts

AbstractThis study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August and mid-September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first-ever-observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ∼50% in the midstratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-1 activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the southern annular mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July.

Stratospheric Impacts of Continuing CFC‐11 Emissions Simulated in a Chemistry‐Climate Model

AbstractTrichlorofluoromethane (CFC‐11, CFCl3) is a major anthropogenic ozone‐depleting substance and greenhouse gas, and its production and consumption are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, recent studies show that CFC‐11 emissions increased during 2014–2017 relative to 2008–2012. In this study, we use a chemistry‐climate model to investigate the stratospheric impacts of potential CFC‐11 emissions continuing into the future. As a sensitivity test, we use a high CFC‐11 scenario in which the inferred 2013–2016 average emissions of 72.5 Gg/yr is sustained to year 2100. This increases equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine by 15% in 2100, relative to the WMO (2018) baseline scenario in which future emissions decay with a bank release rate of 6.4%/year. Consistent with recent studies, the resulting ozone response has a linear dependence on the accumulated CFC‐11 emissions, yielding global and Antarctic spring total ozone sensitivity per 1,000 Gg of −0.37 and −3.9 DU, respectively, averaged over 2017–2100. The deepened ozone hole reduces UV heating, causing a colder Antarctic lower stratosphere in spring/early summer. Through thermal wind balance, this accelerates the circumpolar jet which in turn alters planetary and gravity wave propagation through the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, and modifies the Brewer‐Dobson circulation. Age of air in the high scenario is slightly younger than the baseline in the lower stratosphere globally during 2090–2099, with a maximum change of −0.1 years. Coupled atmosphere‐ocean model simulations show that the resulting greenhouse gas impact of CFC‐11 is small and not statistically significant throughout the troposphere and stratosphere.

Impact of Interannual Ozone Variations on the Downward Coupling of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Warming

AbstractThe Southern Hemisphere experienced its first recorded major sudden stratospheric warming during September 2002, which subsequently resulted in strong low polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (low SAM) and extreme daily mean maximum temperatures and low rainfall over eastern Australia during October 2002. The warming and weakening of the polar vortex were accompanied by anomalously high values of polar stratospheric ozone, which possibly could have constructively sustained the weakened vortex and subsequent development of low SAM. We explore the impact of this ozone variation by conducting an idealized forecast experiment using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational subseasonal to seasonal prediction system (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator‐Seasonal forecast system version 1, ACCESS‐S1), whose atmospheric model well resolves the stratosphere. The ACCESS‐S1 control forecasts are generated with prescribed climatological monthly mean ozone, whereas the observed monthly mean ozone during 2002 is prescribed during the forecast for the experiment. While the control forecasts initialized on 1 August 2002 demonstrate good skill in predicting the weakening of the polar vortex and the resultant occurrence of low SAM during October, the extremity of the SAM anomaly and associated extreme high temperatures and low rainfall over eastern Australia were significantly underpredicted. Prescribing the observed ozone results in more realistic weakening of the stratospheric vortex and stronger development of low SAM and extreme warm conditions in eastern Australia during October 2002. These results suggest that polar stratospheric ozone variations are a potential source of long lead climate variability, which can be tapped with future ACCESS‐S development.

Can the Madden‐Julian Oscillation Affect the Antarctic Total Column Ozone?

AbstractThe effect of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on springtime Antarctic ozone variations is revealed for the first time from multi‐satellite reanalysis and model simulations. Twenty to 30 days after MJO Phase 8 (P8), Antarctic total column ozone (TCO) anomalies significantly decrease by up to −15 DU, associated with a wave‐1 response at around 60°S. After MJO P8, MJO‐related geopotential height anomalies in the southern hemispheric (SH) Indian Ocean emanate from subtropics to polar regions, leading to suppressed upward and poleward propagation of planetary waves (PWs) and weakened Brewer‐Dobson circulation in the SH stratosphere. This in turn results in less ozone transport from midlatitudes into the polar region and thus a negative polar TCO response. Dynamical transport plays a dominant role in modulating the Antarctic TCO after MJO P8. The magnitude of transient changes due to chemical processes is relatively weak than that caused by dynamical transport.

Relation between the interannual variability in the stratospheric Rossby wave forcing and zonal mean fields suggesting an interhemispheric link in the stratosphere

Abstract. Focusing on the interannual variabilities in the zonal mean fields and Rossby wave forcing in austral winter, an interhemispheric coupling in the stratosphere is examined using reanalysis data: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). In the present study, the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux divergence averaged over the latitude and height regions of 50–30∘ S and 0.3–1 hPa, respectively, are used as a proxy of the Rossby wave forcing, where the absolute value of the EP flux divergence is maximized in the winter in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The interannual variabilities in the zonal mean temperature and zonal wind are significantly correlated with the SH Rossby wave forcing in the stratosphere in both the SH and Northern Hemisphere (NH). The interannual variability in the strength of the poleward residual mean flow in the SH stratosphere is also correlated with the strength of the wave forcing. This correlation is significant even around the Equator at an altitude of 40 km and at NH low latitudes of 20–40 km. The temperature anomaly is consistent with this residual mean flow anomaly. The relation between the cross-equatorial flow and the zonal mean absolute angular momentum gradient (M‾y) is examined in the meridional cross section. The M‾y around the Equator at the altitude of 40 km is small when the wave forcing is strong, which provides a pathway for the cross-equatorial residual mean flow. These results indicate that an interhemispheric coupling is present in the stratosphere through the meridional circulation modulated by the Rossby wave forcing.

The efficiency of transport into the stratosphere via the Asian and North American summer monsoon circulations

Abstract. Transport of pollutants into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) or North American summer monsoon (NASM) may affect the atmospheric composition and climate both locally and globally. We identify and study the robust characteristics of transport from the ASM and NASM regions to the stratosphere using the Lagrangian chemistry transport model CLaMS driven by both the ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalyses. In particular, we quantify the relative influences of the ASM and NASM on stratospheric composition and investigate the transport pathways and efficiencies of transport of air masses originating at different altitudes in these two monsoon regions to the stratosphere. We release artificial tracers in several vertical layers from the middle troposphere to the lower stratosphere in both ASM and NASM source regions during July and August 2010–2013 and track their evolution until the following summer. We find that more air mass is transported from the ASM and NASM regions to the tropical stratosphere, and even to the southern hemispheric stratosphere, when the tracers are released clearly below the tropopause (350–360 K) than when they are released close to the tropopause (370–380 K). For tracers released close to the tropopause (370–380 K), transport is primarily into the northern hemispheric lower stratosphere. Results for different vertical layers of air origin reveal two transport pathways from the upper troposphere over the ASM and NASM regions to the tropical pipe: (i) quasi-horizontal transport to the tropics below the tropopause followed by ascent to the stratosphere via tropical upwelling, and (ii) ascent into the stratosphere inside the ASM/NASM followed by quasi-horizontal transport to the tropical lower stratosphere and further to the tropical pipe. Overall, the tropical pathway (i) is faster than the monsoon pathway (ii), particularly in the ascending branch. The abundance of air in the tropical pipe that originates in the ASM upper troposphere (350–360 K) is comparable to the abundance of air ascending directly from the tropics to the tropical pipe 10 months after (the following early summer) the release of the source tracers. The air mass contributions from the ASM to the tropical pipe are about 3 times larger than the corresponding contributions from the NASM. The transport efficiency into the tropical pipe, the air mass fraction inside this destination region normalized by the mass of the domain of origin, is greatest from the ASM region at 370–380 K. Although the contribution from the NASM to the stratosphere is less than that from either the ASM or the tropics, the transport efficiency from the NASM is comparable to that from the tropics.

Attribution of the Hemispheric Asymmetries in Trends of Stratospheric Trace Gases Inferred From Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) Measurements

AbstractUsing Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations, ERA‐Interim reanalysis data, and a chemistry transport model simulation, we analyze and investigate the causes of the asymmetric hemispheric trends of N2O, CH4, and HCl in the stratosphere during the period 2004–2012. We find significant hemispheric asymmetries in the trends of these trace gases in the midlatitude middle and lower stratosphere. With regard to N2O and CH4, the enhanced downwelling branch of the residual circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) middle and upper stratosphere transports more N2O/CH4‐poor air from the upper stratosphere to the lower stratosphere. The enhanced poleward meridional branch of the residual circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere brings more N2O/CH4‐rich air from lower to middle latitudes. These processes therefore contribute to the negative trends of N2O and CH4 in the NH lower stratosphere and the positive trends in the SH middle stratosphere. A corresponding positive trend is found for HCl in the NH, where the deep branch of the residual circulation located in the middle and upper stratosphere strengthens, bringing more HCl‐rich air downward to the lower stratosphere, while the shallow branch of the residual circulation in the lower stratosphere weakens and leads to enhanced conversion of chlorine‐containing source gases of different lifetimes to HCl. A reversed picture emerges in the SH, where the deep branch of the residual circulation in the middle and upper stratosphere weakens, while the shallow branch in the lower stratosphere strengthens, resulting in less HCl there. In addition, the southward shift of the upwelling branch of the residual circulation in recent decades can partly explain trace gas trends above 20 hPa, while the eddy mixing has a small effect on the trends. Understanding these contributions from different processes to the hemispheric asymmetries in trends of these trace gases can help us to evaluate more accurately future changes in stratospheric composition.

Future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux and the contribution from climate change and ozone recovery

Abstract. Using a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model we investigate the future change in stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone, the drivers of this change, as well as the future distribution of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere. Supplementary to previous work, our focus is on changes on the monthly scale. The global mean annual influx of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere is projected to increase by 53 % between the years 2000 and 2100 under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenario. The change in ozone mass flux (OMF) into the troposphere is positive throughout the year with maximal increase in the summer months of the respective hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH) this summer maximum STE increase is a result of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, whilst in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) it is due to equal contributions from decreasing levels of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and increasing GHG concentrations. In the SH the GHG effect is dominating in the winter months. A large ODS-related ozone increase in the SH stratosphere leads to a change in the seasonal breathing term which results in a future decrease of the OMF into the troposphere in the SH in September and October. The resulting distributions of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere differ for the GHG and ODS changes due to the following: (a) ozone input occurs at different regions for GHG- (midlatitudes) and ODS-changes (high latitudes); and (b) stratospheric ozone is more efficiently mixed towards lower tropospheric levels in the case of ODS changes, whereas tropospheric ozone loss rates grow when GHG concentrations rise. The comparison between the moderate RCP6.0 and the extreme RCP8.5 emission scenarios reveals that the annual global OMF trend is smaller in the moderate scenario, but the resulting change in the contribution of ozone with stratospheric origin (O3s) to ozone in the troposphere is of comparable magnitude in both scenarios. This is due to the larger tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and hence ozone production in the RCP8.5 scenario.

Seasonal Persistence of Circulation Anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere and Its Implications for the Troposphere

Previous studies have highlighted an important organizing influence of the seasonal Southern Hemisphere stratospheric vortex breakdown on the large-scale stratospheric and tropospheric circulation. The present study extends this work by considering the statistical predictability of the stratospheric vortex breakdown event, using reanalysis data. Perturbations to the winter stratospheric vortex are shown to persist into austral spring and to lead to a shift in the statistics of the breakdown event during austral summer. This is interpreted as evidence for the potential for seasonal predictability of the vortex breakdown event in the stratosphere. Coupled variability between the stratosphere and troposphere is then considered. The semiannual oscillation of the tropospheric midlatitude jet is discussed, and evidence for a connection between this behavior and variations in the stratosphere is presented. Based on this connection, an argument is made for the concomitant potential for seasonal predictability in the troposphere, assuming knowledge of the stratospheric initial state. Combining these various results, a nonstationary, regime-based perspective of large-scale extratropical Southern Hemisphere circulation variability between late winter and summer is proposed. The implications of this perspective for some previous studies involving annular modes of the circulation are discussed. In particular, the long annular mode time scales during austral spring and summer should not be interpreted as an increased persistence of perturbations to some slowly varying seasonal cycle, but instead as a reflection of a phase shift of the seasonal cycle induced by stratospheric variability.