Southern Great Lakes Region Research Articles

Interacting effects of fire and hydroclimate on oak and beech community prevalence in the southern Great Lakes region

Abstract Rising temperatures, increasing hydroclimate variability and intensifying disturbance regimes increase the risk of rapid ecosystem conversions. We can leverage multi‐proxy records of past ecosystem transformations to understand their causes and ecosystem vulnerability to rapid change. Prior to Euro‐American settlement, northern Indiana was a mosaic of prairie, oak‐dominated forests/woodlands and beech‐dominated hardwood forests. This heterogeneity, combined with well‐documented but poorly understood past beech population declines, make this region ideal for studying the drivers of ecosystem transformations. Here, we present a new record from Story Lake, IN, with proxies for vegetation composition (pollen), fire (charcoal) and beech intrinsic water use efficiency (δ13C of beech pollen; δ13Cbeech). Multiple proxies from the same core enable clear establishment of lead–lag relationships. Additionally, δ13Cbeech enables direct comparisons between beech population abundance and physiological responses to changing environments. We compare Story Lake to a nearby lake‐level reconstruction and to pollen records from nearby Pretty and Appleman Lakes and the distal Spicer Lake, to test hypotheses about synchrony and the spatial scale of governing processes. The 11.7 ka sediment record from Story Lake indicates multiple conversions between beech‐hardwood forest and oak forest/woodland. Beech pollen abundances rapidly increased between 7.5 and 7.1 ka, while oak declined. Oak abundances increased after 4.6 ka and remained high until 2.8 ka, indicating replacement of mesic forests by oak forest/woodland. At 2.8 ka, beech abundances rapidly increased, indicating mesic forest reestablishment. Beech and oak abundances correlate with charcoal accumulation rates but beech abundance is not correlated with δ13Cbeech. Fluctuations in beech abundances are synchronous among Story, Appleman and Pretty Lakes, but asynchronous between Story and Spicer Lakes, suggesting regulation by local‐scale vegetation‐fire‐climate feedbacks and secondarily by regional‐scale drivers. Holocene forest composition and fire dynamics appear to be closely co‐regulated and may be affected by local to regional climate variations. The importance of extrinsic drivers and positive/negative feedbacks changes over time, with higher ecoclimate sensitivity before 2.8 ka and greater resilience afterwards. Synthesis: Overall, oak‐ and beech‐dominated ecosystems were highly dynamic over the Holocene, with multiple ecosystem conversions driven by shifting interactions among vegetation, hydroclimate and fire regime.

Influence of climate, topography, and soil type on soil extractable phosphorus in croplands of northern glacial-derived landscapes.

Delineating the relative solubility of soil phosphorus (P) in agricultural landscapes is essential to predicting potential P mobilization in the landscape and can improve nutrient management strategies. This study describes spatial patterns of soil extractable P (easily, moderately, and poorly soluble P) in agricultural landscapes of the Red River basin and the southern Great Lakes region. Surface soils (0-30cm) and select deeper cores (0-90cm) were collected from 10 cropped fields ranging in terrain (near-level to hummocky), soil texture (clay to loam), composition (calcareous to noncalcareous), and climate across these differing glacial landscapes. Poorly soluble P dominated (up to 91%) total extractable P in the surface soils at eight sites. No differences in the relative solubilities of soil extractable P with microtopography were apparent in landscapes without defined surface depressions. In contrast, in landscapes with pronounced surface depressions, increased easily soluble P (Sol-P), and decreased soil P sorption capacity were found in soil in wetter, low-slope zones relative to drier upslope locations. The Sol-P pool was most important to soil P retention (up to 28%) within the surface depressions of the Red River basin and at sites with low-carbonate soils in the southern Lake Erie watershed (up to 28%), representing areas at elevated risk of soil P remobilization. This study demonstrates interrelationships among soil extractable P pools, soil development, and soil moisture regimes in agricultural glacial landscapes and provides insight into identifying potential areas for soil P remobilization and associated P availability to crops and runoff.

More than one way to kill a spruce forest: The role of fire and climate in the late‐glacial termination of spruce woodlands across the southern Great Lakes

Abstract In the southern Great Lakes Region, North America, between 19,000 and 8,000 years ago, temperatures rose by 2.5–6.5°C and spruce Picea forests/woodlands were replaced by mixed‐deciduous or pine Pinus forests. The demise of Picea forests/woodlands during the last deglaciation offers a model system for studying how changing climate and disturbance regimes interact to trigger declines of dominant species and vegetation‐type conversions. The role of rising temperatures in driving the regional demise of Picea forests/woodlands is widely accepted, but the role of fire is poorly understood. We studied the effect of changing fire activity on Picea declines and rates of vegetation composition change using fossil pollen and macroscopic charcoal from five high‐resolution lake sediment records. The decline of Picea forests/woodlands followed two distinct patterns. At two sites (Stotzel‐Leis and Silver Lake), fire activity reached maximum levels during the declines and both charcoal accumulation rates and fire frequency were significantly and positively associated with vegetation composition change rates. At these sites, Picea declined to low levels by 14 kyr BP and was largely replaced by deciduous hardwood taxa like ash Fraxinus, hop‐hornbeam/hornbeam Ostrya/Carpinus and elm Ulmus. However, this ecosystem transition was reversible, as Picea re‐established at lower abundances during the Younger Dryas. At the other three sites, there was no statistical relationship between charcoal accumulation and vegetation composition change rates, though fire frequency was a significant predictor of rates of vegetation change at Appleman Lake and Triangle Lake Bog. At these sites, Picea declined gradually over several thousand years, was replaced by deciduous hardwoods and high levels of Pinus and did not re‐establish during the Younger Dryas. Synthesis. Fire does not appear to have been necessary for the climate‐driven loss of Picea woodlands during the last deglaciation, but increased fire frequency accelerated the decline of Picea in some areas by clearing the way for thermophilous deciduous hardwood taxa. Hence, warming and intensified fire regimes likely interacted in the past to cause abrupt losses of coniferous forests and could again in the coming decades.

Early Insecticide Controversies and Beekeeper Advocacy in the Great Lakes Region

Abstract This article examines the debates that surrounded incidents of honeybee poisoning in the southern Great Lakes region in the 1880s and 1890s. Drawing upon the records of beekeepers and allied entomologists from Ontario and neighboring states, it analyzes the history of insecticide use, knowledge development, and risk calculation in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Here, beekeepers emerge as an important and largely overlooked collective voice in the history of insecticide controversies, contributing as they did to legislation, education, and advocacy efforts on both sides of the US-Canadian border. Their actions in response to a cogent threat to their livelihoods mark them as early advocates for environmental protection. Deeply familiar with the amenities and threats of surrounding land uses for their honey crop, late nineteenth-century beekeepers pressed for prudent insecticide use and “bee-friendly” horticultural practices more than half a century before the more familiar insecticide controversies of the postwar period. By the turn of the century, these efforts had borne some success in reducing incidents of honeybee poisoning. As the frequency, quantity, and toxicity of insecticides increased in the early twentieth century, however, powerful fruit-grower interests left Great Lakes beekeepers (and their bees) to shoulder the risks of an increasingly toxic countryside or to fold their operations, as many chose to do. For environmental historians, their fight presents an early example of the effects of agricultural industrialization, and its associated environmental consequences, on minority producers and the animals they kept.

Minimum limiting deglacial ages for the out-of-phase Saginaw Lobe of the Laurentide Ice Sheet using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon methods

AbstractTwenty-four new optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon ages from sediment cores in nine lakes associated with the Shipshewana and Sturgis moraines in northern Indiana and southern Michigan estimate when recession of the Saginaw Lobe of the Laurentide Ice Sheet was underway in the southern Great Lakes region, USA. Average OSL ages of 23.4 ± 2.2 ka for the Shipshewana Moraine and 19.7 ± 2.2 ka for the Sturgis Moraine are considered minimum limiting deglacial ages for these recessional moraines. The much younger radiocarbon ages are consistent with other regional radiocarbon ages from lakes, and record climate amelioration around ~16.5 cal ka BP. Early recession of the interlobate Saginaw Lobe was well underway by 23.4 ± 2.2 ka, when the adjacent Lake Michigan and Huron-Erie lobes were a few hundred kilometers farther south and near their maximum southerly limits. The results provide the first time constraints when sediment from the Lake Michigan and Huron-Erie lobes began filling the accommodation space left by the Saginaw Lobe. The difference between the oldest radiocarbon and OSL age is 7400 yr for the Shipshewana Moraine and 3400 yr for the Sturgis Moraine.

Aeolian activity during Late Glacial time, with an example from Mongo, Indiana, USA

The last aeolian activity of a significant number of inland sand dunes in the southern Great Lakes region (SGLR) was several thousands of years after deglaciation. At Mongo, Indiana, a field of parabolic sand dunes with a variety of morphologies are within the channel bottom of the Pigeon River meltwater channel, with some dunes having climbed up the channel wall onto the adjacent upland surface. The optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) samples from the channel-bottom dunes have a mean age of 14.2 ± 1.6 ka (n = 2) and the OSL samples from upland dunes have a mean age of 12.3 ± 1.6 ka (n = 4). Dunes and outwash ages and geomorphic setting constrain both the position of the Huron-Erie and Saginaw lobes. The oldest dune age is also a minimum age for cessation of local meltwater flow from the Huron-Erie Lobe of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and formation of the adjacent Sturgis Moraine of the Saginaw Lobe. The final activity of the dunes is coincident with late glacial stadial and interstadial events as recorded in the Greenland ice core records, a similar finding to all other studies of dunes in the SGLR. It is now well recognized that many dunes were last active before, during, and after the Younger Dryas stadial, presumably in response to a climate that was windier and less favorable for vegetation.

Temperature variations in the southern Great Lakes during the last deglaciation: Comparison between pollen and GDGT proxies

Our understanding of deglacial climate history in the southern Great Lakes region of the United States is primarily based upon fossil pollen data, with few independent and multi-proxy climate reconstructions. Here we introduce a new, well-dated fossil pollen record from Stotzel-Leis, OH, and a new deglacial temperature record based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) at Silver Lake, OH. We compare these new data to previously published records and to a regional stack of pollen-based temperature reconstructions from Stotzel-Leis, Silver Lake, and three other well-dated sites. The new and previously published pollen records at Stotzel-Leis are similar, but our new age model brings vegetation events into closer alignment with known climatic events such as the Younger Dryas (YD). brGDGT-inferred temperatures correlate strongly with pollen-based regional temperature reconstructions, with the strongest correlation obtained for a global soil-based brGDGT calibration (r2 = 0.88), lending confidence to the deglacial reconstructions and the use of brGDGT and regional pollen stacks as paleotemperature proxies in eastern North America. However, individual pollen records show large differences in timing, rates, and amplitudes of inferred temperature change, indicating caution with paleoclimatic inferences based on single-site pollen records. From 16.0 to 10.0ka, both proxies indicate that regional temperatures rose by ∼10 °C, roughly double the ∼5 °C estimates for the Northern Hemisphere reported in prior syntheses. Change-point analysis of the pollen stack shows accelerated warming at 14.0 ± 1.2ka, cooling at 12.6 ± 0.4ka, and warming from 11.6 ± 0.5ka into the Holocene. The timing of Bølling-Allerød (B-A) warming and YD onset in our records lag by ∼300–500 years those reported in syntheses of temperature records from the northern mid-latitudes. This discrepancy is too large to be attributed to uncertainties in radiocarbon dating, and correlation between pollen and brGDGT temperature reconstructions rules out vegetation lags as a cause. However, the YD termination appears synchronous among the brGDGT record, regional pollen stack, and Northern Hemisphere stack. The cause of the larger and lagged temperature changes in the southern Great Lakes relative to Northern Hemisphere averages remains unclear, but may be due to the effects of continentality and ice sheet extent on regional climate evolution.

How willing are landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops in the Northern Great Lakes Region?

AbstractLand to produce biomass is essential if the United States is to expand bioenergy supply. Use of agriculturally marginal land avoids the food vs. fuel problems of food price rises and carbon debt that are associated with crop and forestland. Recent remote sensing studies have identified large areas of US marginal land deemed suitable for bioenergy crops. Yet the sustainability benefits of growing bioenergy crops on marginal land only pertain if land is economically available. Scant attention has been paid to the willingness of landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops. Focusing on the northern tier of the Great Lakes, where grassland transitions to forest and land prices are low, this contingent valuation study reports on the willingness of a representative sample of 1124 private, noncorporate landowners to rent land for three bioenergy crops: corn, switchgrass, and poplar. Of the 11% of land that was agriculturally marginal, they were willing to make available no more than 21% for any bioenergy crop (switchgrass preferred on marginal land) at double the prevailing land rental rate in the region. At the same generous rental rate, of the 28% that is cropland, they would rent up to 23% for bioenergy crops (corn preferred), while of the 55% that is forestland, they would rent up to 15% for bioenergy crops (poplar preferred). Regression results identified deterrents to land rental for bioenergy purposes included appreciation of environmental amenities and concern about rental disamenities. In sum, like landowners in the southern Great Lakes region, landowners in the Northern Tier are reluctant to supply marginal land for bioenergy crops. If rental markets existed, they would rent more crop and forestland for bioenergy crops than they would marginal land, which would generate carbon debt and opportunity costs in wood product and food markets.

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

AbstractPerennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6‐year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn (Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk into three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit‐oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops have a higher potential to successfully compete with corn under marginal crop production conditions.

Mustard Cover Crops for Biomass Production and Weed Suppression in the Great Lakes Region

Short‐season cover cropping can be an important weed management tool. To optimize the use of mustard [Sinapis alba L. and Brassica juncea (L.) Czern.] in the Great Lakes region, we assessed planting time effects, mustard biomass production, and weed suppression during mustard growth and after incorporation. The study was conducted in Illinois, Michigan, and New York for spring and fall from 2010 to 2012. Mustard was sown every ∼10 d from mid‐March to early June for spring plantings and from early August to mid‐September for fall plantings. Spring mustard biomass, weed density, community composition, and dry biomass were collected at mustard flowering. Fall mustard biomass, weed density, and dry biomass were collected at season end. Spring mustard biomass ranged from <0.5 to 4 t ha−1. Early fall biomass ranged from 3 to 5.5 t ha−1, and was related to growing degree days (GDD) according to a logistic function. Weed biomass during mustard growth was reduced by at least 50% in 9 of 10 site‐years (90%) for fall‐planted mustard but only 15 of 31 site‐years (48%) in spring plantings. Weed suppression was independent of mustard biomass. The total number of weed seedlings emerging after mustard incorporation was not significantly reduced, but there was a species‐specific response, with a decrease in common lambsquarters (Chenopodium album L.) and grass emergence. The results permit a location‐specific recommendation to plant mustard cover crops 13 to 23 August in the southern Great Lakes Region, and no later than 1 to 10 September for adequate biomass production.

Borrowing in Southern Great Lakes Algonquian and the History of Potawatomi

This article analyzes patterns of lexical borrowing in the Algonquian languages of the Southern Great Lakes region (Miami-Illinois, Sauk-Fox-Kickapoo, Shawnee, and Potawatomi), which have been in contact for centuries. Such an investigation not only helps distinguish which features of the languages are inherited and which are diffused, but also provides considerable insight into cultural connections prevailing in the Great Lakes area in the precontact and early contact periods. Some languages have borrowed far more than others, and others far less. The most extensive borrowing among these languages is that by Potawatomi from Sauk-Fox-Kickapoo, which includes not just nouns, but also extends to verbs, numerals, adverbs, pronouns, and even morphological elements.

Lake breezes in the southern Great Lakes region and their influence during BAQS-Met 2007

Abstract. Meteorological observations from the BAQS-Met field experiment during the summer months of 2007 were integrated and manually analyzed in order to identify and characterize lake breezes in the southern Great Lakes region of North America, and assess their potential impact on air quality. Lake breezes occurred frequently, with one or more lake breezes identified on 90 % of study days. They affected all parts of the study region, including southwestern Ontario and nearby portions of southeast Lower Michigan and northern Ohio, with lake-breeze fronts occasionally penetrating from 100 km to over 200 km inland. Occurrence rates and penetration distances were found to be higher than previously reported in the literature. This comprehensive depiction of observed lake breezes allows an improved understanding of their influence on the transport, dispersion, and production of pollutants in this region. The observational analyses were compared with output from subsequent runs of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model. The model accurately predicted lake breeze occurrence and type in a variety of synoptic wind regimes, but selected cases showed substantial differences in the detailed timing and location of lake-breeze fronts, and with the initiation of deep moist convection. Knowledge of such strengths and weaknesses aids in the interpretation of results from air quality models driven by this meteorological model.

Impact of model grid spacing on regional- and urban- scale air quality predictions of organic aerosol

Abstract. Regional-scale chemical transport model predictions of urban organic aerosol to date tend to be biased low relative to observations, a limitation with important implications for applying such models to human exposure health studies. We used a nested version of Environment Canada's AURAMS model (42- to- 15- to- 2.5-km nested grid spacing) to predict organic aerosol concentrations for a temporal and spatial domain corresponding to the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met), an air-quality field study that took place in the southern Great Lakes region in the summer of 2007. The use of three different horizontal grid spacings allowed the influence of this parameter to be examined. A domain-wide average for the 2.5-km domain and a matching 15-km subdomain yielded very similar organic aerosol averages (4.8 vs. 4.3 μg m−3, respectively). On regional scales, secondary organic aerosol dominated the organic aerosol composition and was adequately resolved by the 15-km model simulation. However, the shape of the organic aerosol concentration histogram for the Windsor urban station improved for the 2.5-km simulation relative to those from the 42- and 15-km simulations. The model histograms for the Bear Creek and Harrow rural stations were also improved in the high concentration "tail" region. As well the highest-resolution model results captured the midday 4 July organic-aerosol plume at Bear Creek with very good temporal correlation. These results suggest that accurate simulation of urban and large industrial plumes in the Great Lakes region requires the use of a high-resolution model in order to represent urban primary organic aerosol emissions, urban VOC emissions, and the secondary organic aerosol production rates properly. The positive feedback between the secondary organic aerosol production rate and existing organic mass concentration is also represented more accurately with the highest-resolution model. Not being able to capture these finer-scale features may partly explain the consistent negative bias reported in the literature when urban-scale organic aerosol evaluations are made using coarser-scale chemical transport models.

Distant Effects of a Recurving Tropical Cyclone on Rainfall in a Midlatitude Convective System: A High-Impact Predecessor Rain Event*

Abstract Recent research has identified predecessor rain events (PREs), which are mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall that occur ∼1000 km poleward and downshear of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs typically occur 24–36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC, and frequently result in damaging flooding. A distinguishing feature of a PRE is that it is enhanced by a broad region of deep tropical moisture directly associated with the TC that is transported well poleward ahead of the TC. This study will quantify the effects of the tropical moisture from one TC on a record-breaking rain and flood event over the northern Great Plains and southern Great Lakes region on 18–19 August 2007. In this event, which occurred ahead of TC Erin, a southerly stream of deep tropical moisture (precipitable water values >50 mm) moved poleward and intersected a northwest–southeast-oriented quasi-stationary baroclinic zone beneath the equatorward entrance region of an upper-level jet streak. A slow-moving mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed and produced widespread heavy rainfall, with local amounts exceeding 380 mm that resulted in historic flooding in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Observations and numerical simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF) indicate that low-level frontogenesis was maximized during the overnight hours of 19 August 2007 and provided the forcing for vigorous ascent during the mature stage of the PRE. A control simulation, which included the poleward transport of TC Erin-related moisture, reproduced the extreme rainfall amounts, although the simulated rainfall was displaced from where it was observed. A sensitivity simulation in which the moisture associated with TC Erin was removed (referred to as “NOPLUME”) shows reduced convective available potential energy (CAPE) in the inflow region of the PRE and a less vigorous MCS. In all, there was an approximately 50% reduction in the maximum precipitation amount and a 25% reduction in the total precipitation from the control simulation to the NOPLUME run. Or, considered in the context of rainfall enhancement by the Erin-related moisture, there was a near doubling of the maximum amount and a 33% increase in the total rainfall. The extent of these differences underscores the importance of moisture originating from TC Erin in transforming a heavy rain event into a high-impact, record-breaking rain event.

Mass tracking for chemical analysis: the causes of ozone formation in southern Ontario during BAQS-Met 2007

Abstract. A three-level nested regional air pollution model has been used to study the processes leading to high ozone concentrations in the southern Great Lakes region of North America. The highest resolution simulations show that complex interactions between the lake-breeze circulation and the synoptic flow lead to significant enhancements in the photochemical production and transport of ozone at the local scale. Mass tracking of individual model processes show that Lakes Erie and St. Clair frequently act as photochemical ozone production regions, with average mid-day production rates of up to 3 ppbv per hour. Enhanced ozone levels are evident over these two lakes in 23-day-average surface ozone fields. Analysis of other model fields and aircraft measurements suggests that vertical circulation enhances ozone levels at altitudes up to 1500 m over Lake St. Clair, whereas subsidence enhances ozone over Lake Erie in a shallow layer only 250 m deep. Mass tracking of model transport shows that lake-breeze surface convergence zones combined with the synoptic flow can then carry ozone and its precursors hundreds of kilometers from these source areas, in narrow, elongated features. Comparison with surface mesonet ozone observations confirm the presence, magnitude, and timing of these features, which can create local ozone enhancements on the order of 30 ppbv above the regional ozone levels. Sensitivity analyses of model-predicted ozone and HOx concentrations show that most of the region is VOC-limited, and that the secondary oxidation pathways of aromatic hydrocarbons have a key role in setting the region's ozone and HOx levels.

Unraveling the complex local-scale flows influencing ozone patterns in the southern Great Lakes of North America

Abstract. This study examines the complexity of various processes influencing summertime ozone levels in the southern Great Lakes region of North America. Results from the Border Air Quality and Meteorology (BAQS-Met) field campaign in the summer of 2007 are examined with respect to land-lake differences and local meteorology using a large array of ground-based measurements, aircraft data, and simulation results from a high resolution (2.5 km) regional air-quality model, AURAMS. Analyses of average ozone mixing ratio from the entire BAQS-Met intensive campaign period support previous findings that ozone levels are higher over the southern Great Lakes than over the adjacent land. However, there is great heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of surface ozone over the lakes, particularly over Lake Erie during the day, with higher levels located over the southwestern end of the lake. Model results suggest that some of these increased ozone levels are due to local emission sources in large nearby urban centers. While an ozone reservoir layer is predicted by the AURAMS model over Lake Erie at night, the land-lake differences in ozone mixing ratios are most pronounced during the night in a shallow inversion layer of about 200 m above the surface. After sunrise, these differences have a limited effect on the total mass of ozone over the lakes and land during the day, though they do cause elevated ozone levels in the lake-breeze air in some locations. The model also predicts a mean vertical circulation during the day with an updraft over Detroit-Windsor and downdraft over Lake St. Clair, which transports ozone up to 1500 m above ground and results in high ozone over the lake. Oscillations in ground-level ozone mixing ratios were observed on several nights and at several ground monitoring sites, with amplitudes of up to 40 ppbv and time periods of 15–40 min. Several possible mechanisms for these oscillations are discussed, but a complete understanding of their causes is not possible given current data and knowledge.

Profitability Analysis of Cellulosic Energy Crops Compared with Corn

The expected profitability of six cellulosic feedstock crops is compared with two corn (Zea mays L.)‐based systems under southern Great Lakes region conditions over a projected 10‐yr period. At 2006–2009 costs and yields from literature, none would be more profitable than the corn‐based systems. Comparative breakeven price analysis identifies the cellulosic feedstock price that would make crops equally profitable with continuous corn. Breakeven prices of cellulose are $110 to $130 Mg−1 for poplar (Populus spp.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and mixed grasses. For miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus J.M. Greef & Deuter ex Hodk. &Renvoize), breakeven cellulose prices are $200 Mg−1 at current costs, but only $45 Mg−1 if rhizome costs fall to near European levels, well within the range of temporary U.S. farm bill cost share levels for biomass harvest, transportation, and storage. Without targeted subsidies, native prairie and fallow old field systems would not be competitive with corn or the other four cellulosic crops reviewed at current yields and foreseeable prices. Comparative breakeven yields at a cellulose price of $60 Mg−1 would require yield gains above benchmark literature values of 50% for switchgrass, 60% for poplar and mixed grasses, 140% for fallow old fields, 180% for native prairie, and 190% for miscanthus at current rhizome costs, but no added yield for miscanthus with rhizomes at plausible reduced cost.

Paradigms and proboscideans in the southern Great Lakes region, USA

Thirteen new chronometric dates for Illinois proboscideans are considered in relation to well-dated pollen records from northeastern and central Illinois. These dates span an interval from 21,228 to 12,944 cal BP. When compared to pollen spectra, it is evident that Mammut americanum inhabited spruce ( Picea) and black ash ( Fraxinus nigra) forest during the Bølling–Allerød (14,700–12,900 cal BP) and early Younger Dryas (12,900–11,650 cal BP) chronozones. Both Mammuthus jeffersonii and Mammuthus primigenius inhabited spruce dominated open-woodland during the Oldest Dryas chronozone, while M. primigenius persisted in a forest of predominantly black ash during the Allerød chronozone. A newly discovered specimen from Lincoln, IL, clarifies the taxonomic distinction between M. primigenius and M. jeffersonii. Hitherto, a paradigm of proboscidean succession during the full- to late-glacial periods was based on the vegetation succession of steppe tundra-like vegetation to spruce forest to spruce-deciduous forest. The presumed proboscidean succession was that of cold, dry steppe-adapted M. primigenius succeeded by more mesic-tolerant M. jeffersonii that in turn was succeeded by the wet forest-adapted M. americanum. Reported data do not support this view and indicate a need for re-evaluation of assumptions of proboscidean ecology and history, e.g., the environmental tolerances and habits of M. primigenius in regions south of 55°N, and its dynamic relationship with other proboscidean taxa.

Stratigraphy, age, and flora of the Southport forest bed, Southeastern Wisconsin

A mid-Holocene buried organic layer 10 to 60 cm thick is present along the Lake Michigan shoreline in southeastern Wisconsin. Named the Southport forest bed for its location in Kenosha County, the unit has yielded abundant wood specimens, including large logs, branches, twigs, stumps, and root material. Roots of truncated in situ oak ( Quercus) and elm ( Ulmus) trees extend into the underlying till of the late Wisconsin Oak Creek Formation. Nearshore lacustrine sand above the organic layer contains abundant driftwood, overlain by 2 to 3 m of cross-bedded dune sand. More than 50 wood samples have been identified; the assemblage is that of a mixed hardwood forest dominated by oak ( Quercus) and hickory ( Carya), which account for about 60% of the assemblage. Although the site has been mostly concealed for many years, it was beautifully exposed in the 1960s and early 1970s, when it was initially studied by Phil Sander, who discovered the site and documented it with field notes and numerous photographs. Here we report several new (unpublished) radiocarbon dates and details of the stratigraphy and arboreal flora. Radiocarbon dates suggest that the Southport forest probably lived for 900–1000 14C years, possibly longer, reaching its climax at about 5300 B.P. The site is of particular importance because of its proximity to the Nipissing shoreline and provides a significant point on the Nipissing transgression time curve. The unusually large number of identified specimens affords an accurate evaluation of the warm and relatively dry climate that characterized the southern Great Lakes region during the mid-Holocene.

Post-Clovis survival of American Mastodon in the southern Great Lakes Region of North America

The end of the Pleistocene in North America was marked by a wave of extinctions of large mammals, with the last known appearances of many species falling between ca. 11,000–10,000 14C yr BP. Temporally, this period overlaps with the Clovis Paleoindian cultural complex (11,190–10,530 14C yr BP) and with sudden climatic changes that define the beginning of the Younger Dryas chronozone (ca. 11,000–10,000 14C yr BP), both of which have been considered as potential proximal causes of this extinction event. Radiocarbon dating of enamel and filtered bone collagen from an extinct American Mastodon ( Mammut americanum) from northern Indiana, USA, by accelerator mass spectrometer yielded direct dates of 10,055 ± 40 14C yr BP and 10,032 ± 40 14C yr BP, indicating that the animal survived beyond the Clovis time period and into the late Younger Dryas. Although the late survival of this species in mid-continental North America does not remove either humans or climatic change as contributing causes for the late Pleistocene extinctions, neither Clovis hunters nor the climatic perturbations initiating the Younger Dryas chronozone were immediately responsible for driving mastodons to extinction.