Rainfall In Southern China Research Articles

Different impacts of the variations of western and eastern portions of the East Asian westerly jet stream on southern China rainfalls in Meiyu season

Variations of East Asian westerly jet (EAJ) drastically affect the rainfall in southern China (SC) during Meiyu season. Previous studies conventionally focused on the entire EAJ's variations and their impacts. In this study, we find that the variations of EAJ eastern section (EAJE) and western section (EAJW) are mostly independent of each other. Moreover, the independent components of EAJE and EAJW's variations have different impacts on the rainfall in SC. Southward-displaced and intensified EAJE (SI-EAJE) and southward-displaced and weakened EAJW (SW-EAJW), the first two leading modes of EAJ variations, are associated with increased rainfall anomalies centred over central and southern parts of SC, respectively.Associated with the SI-EAJE (SW-EAJW), anomalous cold cyclone is centred around the Japan Sea (central China). The associated anomalous westerly wind and northward-decreasing (northwestward-decreasing) temperature centred over the central (southern) SC together induce midtropospheric warm advection and thus positive rainfall anomalies centred over the central (southern) SC. The anomalous circulations also cause moisture convergences roughly collocated with the anomalous warm advections over the SC, which intensifies the rainfall anomalies.Warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific during boreal spring induce meridional teleconnection along the coastal East Asia in Meiyu season through suppressing the convective activities in the northwestern Pacific. The resultant SI-EAJE and associated anomalous circulations increase the rainfall over the central SC, and vice versa. Dipole of increased (decreased) spring snow anomalies on the eastern (western) Tibetan Plateau suppresses (intensifies) convective activities in Meiyu season. The resultant SW-EAJW and associated anomalous circulations increase the rainfall in the southern SC.

Tropical cyclones over the South China Sea suppress the monsoonal rainfall in southern China

The tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause intense rain and destructive winds. While these catastrophic weather conditions capture our attention, the less-known impact of TCs remains overlooked. This study reveals that TCs have a notable suppressive effect on monsoonal rainfall in southern China when they traverse the South China Sea. This phenomenon can be attributed to the influence of these mesoscale disturbances on the quasi-stationary, large-scale monsoonal circulation, which alters the moisture pathway. Furthermore, the case-by-case analysis indicates that ~76% of TCs correspond to rainfall reduction, whereas the other 24% correspond to rainfall increase. The latter is due to the concurrent occurrence of another independent influencing factor: extratropical cyclonic anomalies that promote enhanced rainfall through favoring lower-tropospheric moisture convergence. This study suggests that TCs, as mesoscale disturbances, can change the moisture channel that is usually controlled by quasi-stationary and large-scale monsoonal airflows, and suppress the adjacent land rainfall over China.

Triple-Dip La Niña Contributes to Pakistan Flooding and Southern China Drought in Summer 2022

Abstract In the summer of 2022, a long-lasting La Niña entered its third year. In Asia, southern China was in the grip of a historic drought while heavy rainfall ravaged Pakistan. Using a climate model forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST) over the equatorial Pacific, we show that the back-to-back La Niña events from 2020 to 2022 are a key contributor to the global SST pattern in 2022, including the negative-phase Pacific decadal oscillation and exceptionally strong negative Indian Ocean dipole. The model reproduces the observed precipitation pattern over South and East Asia, including enhanced rainfall over Pakistan–northwest India and reduced rainfall over southern China. Additional model simulations indicate that the negative Indian Ocean dipole combined with La Niña reduces southern China rainfall by causing anomalous subsidence and anticyclonic flows. These results highlight the dominant role of long-lasting La Niña in modulating rainfall over heavily populated monsoon Asia.

Delayed effects of large-scale cold surge on winter heavy rainfall in southern China

In winter, large-scale cold surges usually invade southern China and cause heavy rainfall in that region. They provide the baroclinic instability and dynamic conditions favorable for the formation of heavy rainfall. Through examining an extreme wintertime heavy rainfall event in southern China, this study demonstrates that a large amount of moisture transportation that originates from the tropical region can be driven by the northern cold surges. Results show that a strong cold surge invade southern China 4 days prior to the heavy rainfall. The residual cold airmass of the cold surge provides an important convergent lifting slope for the formation of heavy rainfall as well as determines its location. The moisture for the heavy rainfall is provided by the southerly flow along the western part of the Philippine Sea anticyclone that owes to the cold surge. As the cold surge intrudes into the Philippine Sea, decreases in temperature and humidity are expected in the lower troposphere, enhancing large-scale downdrafts and sea level pressure and eventually triggering an anticyclone. The Philippine Sea anticyclone reaches its strongest 4 days after the cold surge and activates the low-level moisture pooling in the region of interest. The findings suggest that the large-scale cold surge indirectly stimulates the wintertime heavy rainfall in southern China by a delayed effect of moisture pooling through forming the Philippine Sea anticyclone.

Quaternary rainfall variability is governed by insolation in northern China and ice-sheet forcing in the South

Quaternary Asian low-latitude hydroclimate cyclicity has long been attributed to insolation forcing, in contrast to the dominant ice-sheet and CO2 controls identified in mid-high-latitude regions. However, debates exist regarding these rainfall variations and forcings due to inconsistent reconstructions and simulations. Here, by combining rainfall proxy records with multi-model simulations, dominant 23 ka rainfall cycle in northern China and 100 ka rainfall cycle in southern China and Southeast Asia were found. We propose that rainfall mainly occurs in summer in the north, primarily driven by insolation. Rainfall in the south is largely forced by high-latitude ice sheets, with enhanced spring and autumn rainfall in southern China and weakened rainfall in western Maritime Continent during glacial periods. This study highlights the seasonal contributions to orbital-scale rainfall changes, and sheds light on the Asian hydroclimate conditions associated with high-low-latitude climate interactions.

Pattern of Wintertime Southern Rainfall and Northern Pollution over Eastern China: The Role of the Strong Eastern Pacific El Niño

Abstract Air quality over the North China Plain (NCP) and rainfall over southern China exhibit robust and correlated interannual variations during winter from 1979 to 2018. A correlation coefficient of 0.7 between the PM2.5 concentration over the NCP and rainfall in southern China indicates that poor air quality and rainfall are linked (referred to as the south rainfall–north pollution pattern), which is likely due to the strong eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. In the mature phase of the strong EP El Niño, the Northeast Asian anomalous anticyclone (NAAA) is strengthened by two Rossby wave trains modulated by warmer sea surface temperatures. One wave train is directly related to the strong EP El Niño and originates in the tropical eastern Pacific, propagating eastward to East Asia along the middle and high latitudes, which weakens the Ural ridge and strengthens the NAAA. The other wave train is derived from the northern Indian Ocean and propagates into East Asia along the great circle route, which strengthens an anomalous cyclone in southern China and the NAAA. This results in an anomalous horizontal trough of 850 hPa being captured in eastern China at ∼30°N. The southwesterly flow along the southern margin of the trough transports abundant moisture to southern China, which leads to heavy rainfall in southern China combined with an anomalous ascending motion related to the anomalous cyclone. The southeasterly flow to the north of the trough weakens the East Asia winter monsoon due to a weakened Ural ridge, which then leads to a high PM2.5 concentrations over the NCP with the help of an anomalous descending motion related to the NAAA.

Seasonal Prediction for May Rainfall over Southern China Based on the NCEP CFSv2

In this study, we assess the prediction for May rainfall over southern China (SC) by using the NCEP CFSv2 outputs. Results show that the CFSv2 is able to depict the climatology of May rainfall and associated circulations. However, the model has a poor skill in predicting interannual variation due to its poor performance in capturing related anomalous circulations. In observation, the above-normal SC rainfall is associated with two anomalous anticyclones over the western tropical Pacific and northeastern China, respectively, with a low-pressure convergence in between. In the CFSv2, however, the anomalous circulations exhibit the patterns in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), demonstrating that the model overestimates the relationship between May SC rainfall and the ENSO. Because of the onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the atmospheric circulation in May over SC is more complex, so the prediction for May SC rainfall is more challenging. In this study, we establish a dynamic-statistical forecast model for May SC rainfall based on the relationship between the interannual variation of rainfall and large-scale ocean-atmosphere variables in the CFSv2. The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the northeastern Pacific and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, and the 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies over western Siberia in previous April, which exert great influence on the SC rainfall in May, are chosen as predictors. Furthermore, multiple linear regression is employed between the predictors obtained from the CFSv2 and observed May SC rainfall. Both cross validation and independent test show that the hybrid model significantly improve the model's skill in predicting the interannual variation of May SC rainfall by two months in advance.

Impact of Soil Freezing‐Thawing Processes on August Rainfall Over Southern China

AbstractThe impact of soil freezing‐thawing processes on August rainfall in Southern China (SC) during 1979–2008 and related physical mechanisms are investigated using the coupled land‐atmosphere model Grid‐Point Atmospheric Model version 2.0—Community Land Model version 2.0 (GAMIL2.0‐CLM2.0). The moisture‐budget analysis is employed to quantify the contributions of different factors to the change of precipitation in SC. The results indicate that the vertical moisture advection and its dynamic component play an essential role in the long‐term trends of August rainfall. The possible physical mechanism is that the model which includes the supercooled water simulates much higher soil/air temperature in August, especially in the north of 40°N, which is not only weakened the meridional thermal contrast but also induced an anomaly “north high–south low” circulation pattern in the middle and high latitude of Eurasia. Both resulted in the 200 hPa zonal winds weakening, and 850 hpa northerly wind southward moved. Meanwhile, a convergence anomaly cyclone is initiated in the lower troposphere over SC regions, accompanied by enhanced ascending and strong moisture flux convergence, which is beneficial to the increased precipitation. This study provides a new interpretation of the “southern flooding” during 1979–2008 from the point of frozen soil changing.

Impacts of Coastal Terrain on Warm-Sector Heavy-Rain-Producing MCSs in Southern China

Abstract Warm-sector heavy rainfall in southern China refers to the heavy rainfall that occurs within a weakly forced synoptic environment under the influence of monsoonal airflows. It is usually located near the southern coast and is characterized by poor predictability and a close relationship with coastal terrain. This study investigates the impacts of coastal terrain on the initiation, organization, and heavy rainfall potential of MCSs in warm-sector heavy rainfall over southern China using quasi-idealized WRF simulations and terrain-modification experiments. Typical warm-sector heavy rainfall events were selected to produce composite environments that forced the simulations. MCSs in these events all initiated in the early morning and developed into quasi-linear convective systems along the coast with a prominent back-building process. When the small coastal terrain is removed, the maximum 12-h rainfall accumulation decreases by ∼46%. The convection initiation is advanced ∼2 h with the help of orographic lifting associated with flow interaction with the coastal hills in the control experiment. Moreover, the coastal terrain weakens near-surface winds and thus decreases the deep-layer vertical wind shear component perpendicular to the coast and increases the component parallel to the coast; the coastal terrain also concentrates the moisture and instability over the coastal region by weakening the boundary layer jet. These modifications lead to faster upscale growth of convection and eventually a well-organized MCS. The coastal terrain is beneficial for back-building convection and thus persistent rainfall by providing orographic lifting for new cells on the western end of the MCS, and by facilitating a stronger and more stagnant cold pool, which stimulates new cells near its rear edge.

The Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation of Summer Rainfall in Southern China and Its Relationship With the Geopotential Height Anomaly Over the North Atlantic Ocean

Summer precipitation in East Asia has significant quasi-biweekly (10–30-day) oscillation characteristics. By using gauge-based precipitation and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the basic mode of the quasi-biweekly oscillation of summer precipitation in East Asia and the related circulation from 1979 to 2012 were analyzed. It was found that the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and its south in China were among the key areas for the 10- to 30-day oscillation of summer precipitation. After selecting typical summer precipitation events with 10- to 30-day oscillation characteristics in key areas and conducting composite analysis, it is found that in the dry (wet) phase of quasi-biweekly precipitation in southern China, it is controlled by quasi-biweekly anticyclone (cyclone) at 500 hPa above the key area. During the evolution of quasi-biweekly precipitation, the ridge of the Northwest Pacific Subtropical High is located between 20 and 22°N latitude, and there is no significant variability in the large-scale background circulation. Furthermore, composite analysis of the precursory signal at 500 hPa during quasi-biweekly precipitation in southern China found that there was an obvious quasi-biweekly geopotential height anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean almost 30 days before the peak day of quasi-biweekly precipitation. While the quasi-biweekly geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa in the North Atlantic propagates eastward, it also leads the cold air to transport southward. Cold air from high latitudes and warm air from low latitudes converge in southern China, which affects the quasi-biweekly oscillation of precipitation. Hysteresis synthesis of precipitation based on 500 hPa geopotential height’s quasi-biweekly oscillation events over the North Atlantic Ocean comes to almost the same conclusion. Therefore, the 500 hPa geopotential height quasi-biweekly anomaly in the North Atlantic may have important prediction significance for an extended-range forecast of summer rainfall in China.

Variability and changes in Pearl River Delta water level: oceanic and atmospheric forcing perspectives

AbstractUnderstanding water level (WL) fluctuations in river deltas is of importance for managing water resources and minimizing the impacts of floods and droughts. Here, we demonstrate the competing effects of atmospheric and oceanic forcing on multi-timescale variability and changes in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) WLs in southern China, using 52 years (1961–2012) of in-situ observations at 13 hydrological stations. PRD WL presents significant seasonal to decadal variations, with large amplitudes upstream related to strong variability of southern China rainfall, and with relatively small amplitudes at the coastal stations determined by sea level (SL) fluctuations of the northern South China Sea. We find that the strengths of atmospheric and oceanic forcing in PRD are not mutually independent, leading to a distinct contrast of WL–forcing relationships at upstream and coastal stations. In the transition zone, because of counteracts of atmospheric and oceanic forcing, no robust relationships are identified between WL and either of the forcing. We further show that in the drought season of the warm ENSO and PDO epochs, the effect of atmospheric (oceanic) forcing on PRD WL is largely enhanced (weakened), due to increased southern China rainfall and negative SL anomalies. Over the observation period, WL significantly decreased at upstream stations, by up to 28–42 mm/year for flood season, contrasting with the upward trends of <4.3 mm/year at coastal stations across all seasons. Southern China rainfall explains little of the observed WL trends, whilst SL rise is mostly responsible for the WL trends at coastal stations.

Statistical Characteristics of Raindrop Size Distribution in Monsoon Season over South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS) is the largest and southernmost sea in China. Water vapor from the SCS is the primary source of precipitation over coastal areas during the summer monsoon season and may cause the uneven distribution of rainfall in southern China. Deep insight into the spatial variability of raindrop size distribution (DSD) is essential for understanding precipitation microphysics, since DSD contains abundant information about rainfall microphysics processes. However, compared to the studies of DSDs over mainland China, very little is known about DSDs over Chinese ocean areas, especially over the South China Sea (SCS). This study investigated the statistical characteristics of the DSD in summer monsoon seasons using the second-generation Particle Size and Velocity (Parsivel2) installed on the scientific research vessel that measured the size and velocity of raindrops over the SCS. In this study, the characteristics of precipitation over the SCS for daytime and nighttime rains were analyzed for different precipitation systems and upon different rain rates. It was found that: (1) rain events were more frequent during the late evening to early morning; (2) more than 78.2% of the raindrops’ diameters were less than 2 mm, and the average value of mass-weighted mean diameter Dm (1.46 mm) of the SCS is similar to that over land in the southern China; (3) the stratiform precipitation features a relatively high concentration of medium to large-sized rain drops compared to other regions; (4) the DSD in the SCS agreed with a three-parameter gamma distribution for the small raindrop diameter. Furthermore, a possible factor for significant DSD variability in the ocean compared with the coast and large islands is also discussed.

Anomaly-based synoptic analysis and model product application for 2020 summer southern China rainfall events

Nine rainfall events affecting southern China in the 2020 summer were studied by a novel anomaly-based synoptic analysis approach, and the results were compared to those of standard synoptic analysis. These rainfall events occurred in the Dragon-boat rainy season and Meiyu rainy season from the Pearl River to the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers and did not entirely follow the climatic seasonal march of the summer monsoon. The first rainfall event occurred within the Dragon-boat rainy season and was associated with a broad rainfall area with scattered precipitation centers related to a broad convergence area of anomalous flows with scattered moist vorticity anomaly (MVA) centers located between two anomalous anticyclonic systems at 925 hPa. The other eight rainfall events appeared in the Meiyu rainy season and were generally associated with only a narrow convergence belt of anomalous flows and a positive MVA belt, sometimes with an anomalous cyclone moving eastward in the lower troposphere. The ECMWF model successfully predicted these anomalous convergence areas and MVA belts with lead times of 2–7 days. The advantages of this anomaly-based analysis approach include its ability to visually identify the location of a rainfall event, pinpoint possible meteorological causes and extend the model forecast length by the earlier detection of predictors.

Combined impacts of sea surface temperature in tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans on the winter rainfall in southern China under decadal background

AbstractThe sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Pacific (TP) and North Atlantic (NA) are both important factors regulating the winter rainfall over southern China (SC). Our results show the combined impact of SSTAs exhibits an offset effect before 1985, after a decadal transition period, the two SSTAs patterns form an additive effect on the interannual timescale after 1995. These distinct impacts of the TP and NA result in the southward shift of the winter rainfall variability, which is associated with the decadal change of the TP and NA. Both the background modes in TP and NA show a phase transition during the period 1985–1995, accompanied by the interannual variations of the SSTAs in two ocean basins before 1985 and after 1995. Before 1985, the canonical El Niño‐related southerly winds of the anticyclone over the western North Pacific transport sufficient water vapour and enhance rainfall in SC. While the concurrent dipole NA SSTA‐related wave train propagates to Eurasia, causing a cyclone and divergence of water vapour fluxes suppressing the local rainfall. After 1995, the El Niño‐related warm SSTAs move westward and strengthen the rainfall anomalies in the Yangtze River basin. Meanwhile, a tripole mode of SSTAs replaces the dipole counterpart in NA, resulting in the anomalous cyclonic circulation over South Asia with more rainfall in the south edge of SC. The decadal changes of the TP and NA mode combination could affect the seasonal distribution and prediction of China winter rainfall.

Role of the South China Sea in Southern China rainfall: meridional moisture flux transport

The South China Sea (SCS) serves as the main source of moisture for rainfall in Southern China (SC) and the meridional moisture transport to SC is dominated by wind changes during the first rainy season (April–June). El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Tropical Northwestern Pacific (TNWP) variability modulate the SC rainfall through anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific by strengthening the SCS meridional moisture transport to SC. However, our study indicates that the SCS is not only the intermediary in which ENSO or the TNWP affects the SC rainfall but also plays an independent role in the modulation of the SC rainfall. Notably, the SCS meridional moisture transport has a lower impact on the SC rainfall during the second rainy season (July–September), especially in July. At that time, the main cause of the SC rainfall is the southward moisture flux anomaly across its northern boundary with the anomalous cyclone over SC. This cyclone suppresses the moisture flux out of SC and leads to moisture convergence in SC. Moreover, we present a new concept by analyzing internal differences of moisture circulation during the second rainy season. Either strengthening the meridional moisture flux into SC across its southern boundary or suppressing the moisture flux out of SC across its northern boundary is important depending on whether or not the moisture from the SCS can converge in SC, which is mainly determined by the amplitude of moisture transport fluxes in SC.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Associated Synoptic Patterns of Extremely Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Southern China

AbstractPersistent heavy rainfall has a longer duration than short‐duration heavy rainfall (SHR), with few studies on its extreme duration. Hourly gridded precipitation data from April to September during 2008–2019 were used to define and study extremely persistent heavy rainfall (EPHR) in southern China. It was found that the EPHR process was asymmetric, with growing time about 1 h shorter than fading time on average. On average, EPHR accounts for less than 40% of duration but nearly 3/4 of precipitation in events. There was a tendency for EPHR to occur near land‐sea boundaries and mountainous areas. It was more frequent in the early morning, differing from the “afternoon peak” observed for SHR. There were five EPHR high‐incidence areas (HIAs). EPHR with longest duration occurred in coastal areas, and the largest precipitation was recorded near the Yunkai Mountains. Influenced by local characteristics, the peaking time of monthly and diurnal variations differed in HIAs. The low in Beibu Gulf was closely related to the occurrence of EPHR, but the relative positions of the low and HIAs varied in different synoptic pattern types. The trough at 500 hPa and the low vortex or shear line at 850 hPa interacted with the surface convergence mechanism to produce strong upward motion. There was also a warm and wet tongue at 850 hPa above the HIAs, combined with the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence. Additionally, the marine boundary‐layer jet and isentropic ascent in lower troposphere possibly supported the coastal EPHR.

Interannual variations of the influences of MJO on winter rainfall in southern China

The influences of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the winter rainfall in southern China exhibit prominent interannual variations. In general, when MJO is active over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific), winter rainfall in southern China increases (decreases) substantially; however, it also decreases (increases) significantly in some winters. The anomalous atmospheric circulation, especially the intraseasonal and low-frequency circulation anomalies, like are responsible for these variations. Both the intraseasonal and low-frequency circulation anomalies are almost opposite between wetter and drier winters MJO is active over the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, which leads to the different moisture convergences in southern China. As a result, the influences of MJO over the same region on winter rainfall in southern China are different. When MJO is active over the Indian Ocean, the moisture convergence (divergence) in wetter (drier) winters is dominated primarily by the meridional (zonal) moisture convergence (divergence) and advection. When MJO is active over the western Pacific, in both wetter and drier winters, the anomalous moisture divergence is controlled by the meridional moisture divergence and advection. Therefore, it is not only the location and intensity of MJO activity that are important; the anomalous circulation and moisture on different timescales (in particular the intraseasonal and low-frequency timescales) should be considered in the operational weather forecast when using MJO as a predictor.

Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Taiwan

Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) advances our understanding of its rhythm, dynamics, and future impacts. EASM variations during the Holocene have been reconstructed from a variety of geological archives and proxies. However, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of EASM rainfall during the Holocene remains controversial. Taiwan is geographically suitable for studying the EASM history through its geological archives. Herein, we synthesize the reported lake and peat sedimentary records of the entire Holocene, in addition to the records of mass-wasting and on-land deposition from cores collected from Taiwan to illustrate the EASM induced hydroclimate changes in Taiwan throughout the Holocene. Records from Taiwan indicate that the EASM rainfall maximum occurred during the early Holocene, concurring with other EASM records from monsoon region of southern China. We suggest that the early Holocene EASM rainfall maximum in southern China was mainly forced by the higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). A synthesis of EASM rainfall records from across China shows that the timing of Holocene EASM rainfall maximum occurred progressively later from southern to northern China. This time-transgressive EASM rainfall maximum may be due to the latitudinal shift of the westerlies and Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) that induced by changes of interhemispheric temperature gradients (ΔTN‐S) and northern high latitude ice volume. Moreover, records from Taiwan suggest a significant collapse of the EASM in Taiwan at ~4–2 ka BP. Based on the records from Taiwan, coastal East Asian and Tropical Pacific, we propose that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the WPWP and/or El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity may have exerted a strong influence on the EASM rainfall changes during the late Holocene. Moreover, increased EASM rainfall in southern China during the last 2 ka was likely caused by a southward shift of WPSH which was associated with gradual decreases in ΔTN‐S during the late Holocene.

Record-breaking heat wave in southern China and delayed onset of South China Sea summer monsoon driven by the Pacific subtropical high

We investigate a record-breaking heat wave in southern China (SC) and explore its association with the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM), using station observations and various reanalysis products. This heat wave event started in mid-May 2018 and persisted more than 15 days, when the maximum air temperature anomaly exceeded 6 °C. Meanwhile, the onset of the SCSSM was extremely late in 2018, primarily due to the intrusion of easterly winds over the SCS. We show that the anomalous easterlies over the SCS associated with the delayed SCSSM could block the moisture transport from the tropical oceans to SC, which led to decreased rainfall, increased surface radiation, and elevated probability of heat wave in SC during May 2018. Further analysis reveals that both SC heat waves and SCSSM were significantly affected by the Pacific subtropical high (PSH). The westward extension of the PSH can hinder the establishment of SCSSM via inducing easterly anomalies over the SCS, which reduces SC rainfall and results in a drier surface condition. Moreover, the westward displacement of the PSH may cause anomalously high pressures, descending air motions, and divergent winds over SC, which triggers above-normal air temperatures that are conducive to the occurrences of SC heat waves. This study also underlines the importance of Eurasian planetary wave trains in bridging the upstream climate variability and the changes in PSH during boreal spring, which could be used to improve the intra-seasonal predictions of SC heat wave and SCSSM onset.

Late Holocene monsoon precipitation changes in southern China and their linkage to Northern Hemisphere temperature

Observations and models suggest a latitudinal redistribution of precipitation as a result of ongoing global climatic warming. However, the dynamic link between temperature and regional precipitation in the course of natural climatic variability during the current interglacial period remains unclear, especially in the monsoon regions of China. Here we present a reconstruction of a ∼5 year-resolution summer monsoon rainfall record for the past 3200 years, based on 622 pairs of δ18O and δ13C and 29 230Th dates from a stalagmite (Wu37) from Wulu Cave in southern China. A close similarity between the δ18O and δ13C records on centennial to decadal timescales suggests that calcite δ18O is most likely a proxy associated with monsoon precipitation. The record reveals that the Little Ice Age (650 - 100 yr B.P.) was a relatively humid period, with two centennial-scale wet events, compared with the Medieval Warm Period (1050 - 650 yr B.P.). In contrast with previous observations in India and northern China, monsoon precipitation variations indicated by our record and other cave records nearby were inversely related to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature over the past two millennia, in particular to variations in the thermal gradient between the Northern and Southern hemispheres. This suggests that NH temperature has an important influence on summer precipitation in southern China, via the interhemispheric thermal gradient and land-ocean thermal contrast. In addition, we find that variations of monsoon rainfall in southern China on multi-centennial to centennial timescales are inversely correlated with observed rainfall in the core monsoon region of India and in the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China. This spatial pattern of rainfall variability can be interpreted as a result of the migration of the intertropical convergence zone that is likely dominated by the interhemispheric thermal gradient via cross-equatorial airflows.