Southern Beaufort Sea Research Articles

The post-emergence period for denning Polar Bears: phenology and influence on cub survival

Abstract Among polar bears (Ursus maritimus), only parturient females den for extended periods, emerging from maternal dens in spring after having substantially depleted their energy reserves during a fast that can exceed 8 months. Although den emergence coincides with a period of increasing prey availability, polar bears typically do not depart immediately to hunt, but instead remain at the den for up to a month. This delay suggests that there are likely adaptive advantages to remaining at the den between emergence and departure, but the influence of the timing and duration of this post-emergence period on cub survival has not been evaluated previously. We used temperature and location data from 70 denning bears collared within the Southern Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea subpopulations to estimate the phenology of the post-emergence period. We evaluated the influence of various spatial and temporal features on duration of the post-emergence period and evaluated the potential influence of post-emergence duration on litter survival early in the spring following denning. For dens that likely contained viable cubs at emergence (n = 56), mean den emergence occurred on 16 March (SE = 1.4 days) and mean departure on 24 March (SE = 1.6 days), with dates typically occurring later in the Chukchi Sea relative to Southern Beaufort Sea and on land relative to sea ice. Mean duration of the post-emergence period was 7.9 days (SE = 1.4) for bears that were observed with cubs later in the spring, which was over 4 times longer than duration of those observed without cubs (1.9 days). Litter survival in the spring following denning (n = 31 dens) increased from 0.5 to 0.9 when duration of the post-emergence period increased by ~4 days and other variables were held at mean values. Our limited sample size and inability to verify cub presence at emergence suggests that future research is merited to improve our understanding of this relationship. Nonetheless, our results highlight the importance of the post-emergence period in contributing to reproductive success and can assist managers in developing conservation and mitigation strategies in denning areas, which will be increasingly important as human activities expand in the Arctic.

Behavioral response of polar bears to aircraft activity on the northern coast of Alaska

AbstractThe rapid loss of arctic sea ice is forcing a larger proportion of the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear (Ursus maritimus) population to spend more time on land, increasing chances of negative interactions between people and bears. In the United States, the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) protects polar bears from incidental disturbance from human activities. For the remote and roadless areas of northern Alaska, USA, effective management of small aircraft activity is necessary to limit disturbance, but effects of overflights on polar bear behavior are largely unknown. During 2021 and 2022, we intentionally exposed polar bears (n = 115) to systematic aircraft activity (helicopter, fixed‐wing) until we observed a disruption of behavior that qualified as a level B take response (e.g., abrupt change in activity or movement) under the MMPA. We used a Bayesian logistic regression to determine what factors influence and can be used to predict when a polar bear will exhibit a level B take response and estimate the probability of an aircraft eliciting a level B take response at different altitudes above the polar bear. Aircraft type, flight altitude, landscape (barrier islands vs. mainland), and bear behavior (active vs. inactive) upon initial aircraft encounter were all important predictors of take. Probability of take rapidly increased with a decrease in flight altitude starting at 450 m for helicopter and 300 m for fixed‐wing aircraft. Active (e.g., standing, walking) polar bears on barrier‐island landscapes were more likely to experience take than inactive (e.g., bedded) bears on mainland landscapes. Our findings can help with assessments and management plans by quantifying disturbance to polar bears from current and future human activity that involves aircraft use.

How realistic features affect the stability of an Arctic marine food web model.

Rapid sea-ice decline and warmer waters are threatening the stability of Arctic ecosystems and potentially forcing their restructuring. Mathematical models that support observational evidence are becoming increasingly important. We develop a food web model for the Southern Beaufort Sea based on species with high ecological significance. Generalized modeling is applied to study the impact of realistic characteristics on food web stability; a powerful method that provides a linear stability analysis for systems with uncertainty in data and underlying physical processes. We find that including predator-specific foraging traits, weighted predator-prey interactions, and habitat constraints increase food-web stability. The absence of a fierce top predator (killer whale, polar bear, etc.) also significantly increases the portion of stable webs. Adding ecosystem background noise in terms of a collective impact of latent, minor ecosystem members shows a peak in stability at an optimum, relatively small background pressure. These results indicate that refining models with more realistic detail to account for the complexity of the ecological system may be key to bridge the gap between empirical observations and model predictions in ecosystem stability.

Disentangling Dynamic from Thermodynamic Summer Ice Area Loss from Observations (1979–2021): A Potential Mechanism for a “First-Time” Ice-Free Arctic

Abstract In recent decades, the Arctic minimum sea ice extent has transitioned from a predominantly thick multiyear ice cover to a thinner seasonal ice cover. We partition the total (observed) Arctic summer area loss into thermodynamic and dynamic (convergence, ridging, and export) sea ice area loss during the satellite era from 1979 to 2021 using a Lagrangian sea ice tracking model driven by satellite-derived sea ice velocities. Results show that the thermodynamic signal dominates the total summer ice area loss and the dynamic signal remains small (∼20%) even in 2007 when dynamic loss was largest. Sea ice loss by compaction (within pack ice convergence) dominates the dynamic area loss, even in years when the export is largest. Results from a simple (Ekman) free-drift sea ice model, supported by results from the Lagrangian model, suggest that nonlinear effects between dynamic and thermodynamic area loss can be important for large negative anomalies in sea ice extent, in accord with previous modeling studies. A detailed analysis of two all-time record minimum years (2007 and 2012)—one with a semipermanent high in the southern Beaufort Sea and the other with a short-lived but extreme storm in the Pacific sector of the Arctic in late summer—shows that compaction by Ekman convergence together with large thermodynamic melt in the marginal ice zone dominated the sea ice area loss in 2007 whereas, in 2012, it was dominated by Ekman divergence amplified by sea–ice albedo feedback—together with an early melt onset. We argue that Ekman divergence from more intense summer storms when the sun is high above the horizon is a more likely mechanism for a “first-time” ice-free Arctic.

Floating microplastic inventories in the southern Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean

The microplastics inflow into the Arctic Ocean may increase environmental stress on the Arctic marine ecosystem on the Pacific side, where sea ice has been significantly reduced because of global warming. However, quantitative data on microplastics are very limited in the Beaufort Sea, which is covered by sea ice for most of the year, even in summer. We therefore observed microplastic concentrations over a wide area of the southern Beaufort Sea using a neuston net from 30 August to 10 September 2022 to estimate the total number (particle inventory) and mass (mass inventory) of microplastics in the entire water column. The particle inventory during the sampling period ranged from 937 to 28,081 pieces km−2 (mean ± standard deviation, 7570 ± 7600 pieces km−2). The mass inventory of microplastics ranged from 22 to 664 g km−2 (179 ± 180 g km−2). Relatively high microplastic inventories (>6500 pieces km−2) were observed off Utqiaġvik and the mouth of the Mackenzie River, suggesting that some microplastics originate not only in the Pacific but also in the Arctic. These values indicate that waters in the southern Beaufort Sea is contaminated with microplastics to the same order of magnitude as the Chukchi Sea.

Long-term assessment of relationships between changing environmental conditions and the physiology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus).

Climate change is influencing polar bear (Ursus maritimus) habitat, diet, and behavior but the effects of these changes on their physiology is not well understood. Blood-based biomarkers are used to assess the physiologic health of individuals but their usefulness for evaluating population health, especially as it relates to changing environmental conditions, has rarely been explored. We describe links between environmental conditions and physiologic functions of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears using data from blood samples collected from 1984 to 2018, a period marked by extensive environmental change. We evaluated associations between 13 physiologic biomarkers and circumpolar (Arctic oscillation index) and regional (wind patterns and ice-free days) environmental metrics and seasonal and demographic co-variates (age, sex, season, and year) known to affect polar bear ecology. We observed signs of dysregulation of water balance in polar bears following years with a lower annual Arctic oscillation index. In addition, liver enzyme values increased over time, which is suggestive of potential hepatocyte damage as the Arctic has warmed. Biomarkers of immune function increased with regional-scale wind patterns and the number of ice-free days over the Beaufort Sea continental shelf and were lower in years with a lower winter Arctic oscillation index, suggesting an increased allocation of energetic resources for immune processes under these conditions. We propose that the variation in polar bear immune and metabolic function is likely indicative of physiologic plasticity, a response that allows polar bears to remain in homeostasis even as they experience changes in nutrition and habitat in response to changing environments.

Anthropogenic waste ingestion of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears, Alaska (2010–2020)

Anthropogenic waste ingestion of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears, Alaska (2010–2020)

Revealing the Extent of Submarine Permafrost and Gas Hydrates in the Canadian Arctic Beaufort Sea Using Seismic Reflection Indicators

AbstractThe Canadian Arctic Southern Beaufort Sea is characterized by prominent relict submarine permafrost and gas hydrate occurrences formed by subaerial exposure during extensive glaciations in Pliocene and Pleistocene. Submarine permafrost is still responding to the thermal change as a consequence of the marine transgression that followed the last glaciation. Submarine permafrost is still underexplored and is currently the focus of several research projects as its degradation releases greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. In this study, seismic reflection indicators are used to investigate the presence of submarine permafrost and gas hydrates on the outer continental shelf where the base of permafrost is expected to cross‐cut geological layers. To address the challenges of marine seismic data collected in shallow water environments, we utilize a representative synthetic model to assess the data processing and the detection of submarine permafrost and gas hydrate by seismic data. The synthetic model allows us to minimize the misinterpretation of acquisition and processing artifacts. In the field data, we identify features along with characteristics arising from the top and base of submarine permafrost and the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. This work shows the distribution of the present submarine permafrost along the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea region and confirms its extension to the outer continental shelf. It supports the general shape suggested by previous works and previously published numerical models.

Nunataryuk field campaigns: understanding the origin and fate of terrestrial organic matter in the coastal waters of the Mackenzie Delta region

Abstract. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change in the Arctic are expected to modify the distribution and dynamics of carbon contained in perennially frozen grounds. Thawing of permafrost in the Mackenzie River watershed of northwestern Canada, coupled with increases in river discharge and coastal erosion, triggers the release of terrestrial organic matter (OMt) from the largest Arctic drainage basin in North America into the Arctic Ocean. While this process is ongoing and its rate is accelerating, the fate of the newly mobilized organic matter as it transits from the watershed through the delta and into the marine system remains poorly understood. In the framework of the European Horizon 2020 Nunataryuk programme, and as part of the Work Package 4 (WP4) Coastal Waters theme, four field expeditions were conducted in the Mackenzie Delta region and southern Beaufort Sea from April to September 2019. The temporal sampling design allowed the survey of ambient conditions in the coastal waters under full ice cover prior to the spring freshet, during ice breakup in summer, and anterior to the freeze-up period in fall. To capture the fluvial–marine transition zone, and with distinct challenges related to shallow waters and changing seasonal and meteorological conditions, the field sampling was conducted in close partnership with members of the communities of Aklavik, Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk, using several platforms, namely helicopters, snowmobiles, and small boats. Water column profiles of physical and optical variables were measured in situ, while surface water, groundwater, and sediment samples were collected and preserved for the determination of the composition and sources of OMt, including particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC and DOC), and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), as well as a suite of physical, chemical, and biological variables. Here we present an overview of the standardized datasets, including hydrographic profiles, remote sensing reflectance, temperature and salinity, particle absorption, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, particulate organic nitrogen, CDOM absorption, fluorescent dissolved organic matter intensity, suspended particulate matter, total particulate carbon, total particulate nitrogen, stable water isotopes, radon in water, bacterial abundance, and a string of phytoplankton pigments including total chlorophyll. Datasets and related metadata can be found in Juhls et al. (2021) (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.937587).

Changes in the Composition of the Harvest in Three Polar Bear Subpopulations in the Western Canadian Arctic after the US Listing of the Polar Bear as a Threatened Species

The 2008 United States (US) listing of the polar bear as a threatened species prohibits the importation of polar bear trophies into the US, significantly decreasing the number of Americans paying for guided polar bear hunts in Canada. We examined the numbers and composition of the harvest in three polar bear subpopulations—Northern Beaufort Sea, Southern Beaufort Sea, and Viscount Melville Sound—located in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region in the western Canadian Arctic in order to identify what happens when support for guided hunting is withdrawn. We find that there was no significant change in the number of polar bears harvested or in the sex composition of the harvest in the three subpopulations after the US listing. Over the 12-year study period, harvests in each subpopulation were always within the quota. The number of guided hunts decreased after the US listing, and the number of subsistence hunts increased in each subpopulation during this time. The number of bears harvested as a percentage of tags (hunting licenses to harvest one polar bear, the sum of which equals the annual quota) used was significantly higher in the Northern Beaufort Sea after the listing. This is because a tag issued for a guided hunt is considered used even if the hunt is unsuccessful, which is often the case, as hunters seek large male bears, whereas a tag issued for subsistence is re-issued until a successful harvest. We conclude that while the US listing and rapid decline in guided hunts did not affect the number of polar bears harvested, it did disrupt the Inuit cultural economy.

High winds and melting sea ice trigger landward movement in a polar bear population of concern

AbstractSome animal species are responding to climate change by altering the timing of events like mating and migration. Such behavioral plasticity can be adaptive, but it is not always. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation have mostly remained on ice year‐round, but as the climate warms and summer sea ice declines, a growing proportion of the subpopulation is summering ashore. The triggers of this novel behavior are not well understood. Our study uses a parametric time‐to‐event model to test whether biological and/or time‐varying environmental variables thought to influence polar bear movement and habitat selection also drive decisions to swim ashore. We quantified the time polar bears spent occupying offshore sea ice of varying ice concentrations. We evaluated variations in the ordinal date bears moved to land with respect to local environmental conditions such as sea ice concentration and wind across 10 years (2005–2015). Results from our study suggest that storm events (i.e., sustained high wind speeds) may force polar bears from severely degraded ice habitat and catalyze seasonal movements to land. Unlike polar bears long adapted to complete summer ice melt, southern Beaufort Sea bears that summer ashore appear more tolerant of poor‐quality sea ice habitat and are less willing to abandon it. Our findings provide a window into emergent, climatically mediated behavior in an Arctic marine mammal vulnerable to rapid habitat decline.

Serum Virome of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) during a period of rapid climate change.

Climate change affects the behavior, physiology and life history of many Arctic wildlife species. It can also influence the distribution and ecology of infectious agents. The southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) has experienced dramatic behavioral changes due to retreating sea ice and other climate-related factors, but the effects of these changes on physiology and infection remain poorly understood. Using serum from polar bears sampled between 2004 and 2015 and metagenomic DNA sequencing, we identified 48 viruses, all of the family Anelloviridae. Anelloviruses are small, ubiquitous infectious agents with circular single-stranded DNA genomes that are not known to cause disease but, in humans, covary in diversity and load with immunological compromise. We therefore examined the usefulness of anelloviruses as biomarkers of polar bear physiological stress related to climate and habitat use. Polar bear anelloviruses sorted into two distinct clades on a phylogenetic tree, both of which also contained anelloviruses of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), another ursid. Neither anellovirus diversity nor load were associated with any demographic variables, behavioral factors or direct physiological measures. However, pairwise genetic distances between anelloviruses were positively correlated with pairwise differences in sampling date, suggesting that the polar bear "anellome" is evolving over time. These findings suggest that anelloviruses are not a sensitive indicator of polar physiological stress, but they do provide a baseline for evaluating future changes to polar bear viromes.

Observed and forecasted changes in land use by polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 1985–2040

Monitoring changes in the distribution of large carnivores is important for managing human safety and supporting conservation. Throughout much of their range, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using terrestrial habitats in response to Arctic sea ice decline. Their increased presence in coastal areas has implications for bear-human conflict, inter-species interactions, and polar bear health and survival. We examined observed trends in land use over three decades by polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) where bears have traditionally spent most of the year on the sea ice. Using data from 408 adult females fitted with satellite radio-collars, we examined trends in the annual proportion of bears coming onshore (hereafter referred to as “percent of bears”) during the summer for ≥ 21 days, arrival and departure dates, duration spent onshore and relationships with sea ice metrics. We then estimated future land use through 2040 by extrapolating trends and by combining observed relationships between land use and sea ice with projections of future sea ice from an ensemble of earth system models. The observed percent of bears summering onshore and their duration onshore was correlated with the percent of open water that occurred within their population’s range between July and October. As sea ice declined, the percent of bears summering onshore increased from ∼5–30% in the SB and ∼10–50% in the CS and duration onshore increased by > 30 days to 60–70 days in both populations. Using a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and adjustments for faster than forecasted sea ice loss we estimated that 50–62% of SB and 79–88% of CS bears will spend 90–108 and 110–126 days onshore during summer in the SB and CS, respectively, by 2040. Sea ice projections varied little between greenhouse gas emission scenarios prior to 2040 but diverged thereafter. Observed and forecasted increases in polar bear land occupancy puts more bears in proximity to human activities and settlements for longer durations while extending the lack of access to their primary prey. Because human conflict is one of the primary factors affecting the conservation of large carnivores worldwide, mitigation of bear-human interactions on land will be an increasingly important component of polar bear conservation.

Modeling the spatial and temporal dynamics of land‐based polar bear denning in Alaska

AbstractAlthough polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) subpopulation have commonly created maternal dens on sea ice in the past, maternal dens on land have become increasingly prevalent as sea ice declines. This trend creates conditions for increased human–bear interactions associated with local communities and industrial activity. Maternal denning is a vulnerable period in the polar bear life cycle, and den disturbance could lead to den abandonment, cub mortality, and negative population impacts. We used published long‐term data to parameterize a Bayesian hierarchical model of annual land den abundance during 2000–2015, in 4 regions of northern Alaska, USA, with current or potential future oil and gas activity. We also estimated long‐term (1982–2015) shifts in the spatial distribution of land dens within and among regions using kernel density estimation and assessed the influence of local and regional sea ice and snow conditions on den site selection using a random forest resource selection function. Our objectives were to quantify current den distribution and abundance, test for distributional shifts over time, and investigate if those shifts could be attributed to environmental variables related to den habitat. We estimated that between 2000 and 2015, the SBS contained a median 123 dens in a typical year, of which 68 occurred on land. The region between the Colville and Canning rivers, where most current oil and gas activity occurred, also contained the largest fraction of land dens. Overall, land dens were disproportionately concentrated on barrier islands and on land within 30 km of the coast. The probability of dens occurring on land varied from 1982–1999 to 2000–2015 in all regions, and the overall distribution of land dens shifted west between those periods. This regional‐scale change in den distribution was predictable based on spatial and temporal heterogeneity in snow and sea ice conditions within 50 km of individual den locations. Land denning is likely to become increasingly common with continued sea ice loss, and our results and modeling framework could be used to design additional mitigation strategies for reducing the risk of incidental take due to den disturbance.

LARGE WHALE OCCURRENCE IN NORTHEASTERN CHUKCHI AND SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEAS FROM VESSEL SURVEYS, 2008–2014

With global climate change and increasing ocean-based human activities, large whales face novel challenges in the Arctic seas. Understanding and assessing large whale occurrence and the links between occurrence and environmental variables in this region is a key issue in current management and conservation strategies for Arctic marine mammal species. During the Chukchi Sea Environmental Studies Program, large whale occurrence data were collected from vessel surveys during >56,909 km of observation effort in summer and autumn, 2008 to 2014, in the northeastern Chukchi, southern Beaufort, and Bering Seas. The most-recorded species were the Bowhead (Balaena mysticetus) and Gray (Eschrichtius robustus) Whales. Subarctic species recorded included the Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae), Fin Whale (Balaenoptera physalus), and Minke Whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata). Sightings data were analyzed with respect to environmental variables: sea-surface temperature (SST), depth (m), and distance from shore (km), by month and year. Investigating occurrence associations with environmental parameters is a key element for predicting large whale trends in these Arctic seas and for understanding marine mammals as sentinels of oceanic shifts.

Significance of autumn and winter food consumption for reproduction by Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears, Ursus maritimus

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea experience long annual periods when preferred seal prey are scarce or are unavailable. Consumption of bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) carcasses from native Alaskan subsistence hunting is increasingly common for onshore polar bears, yet the energetic consequences of this consumption remain unclear. We use data on bears captured repeatedly over periods that encompassed autumn and winter, combined with calculations, to show that adult female bears likely consume an average of at least 4 seal equivalents during both autumn and winter periods and that considerable variation in energy intake exists across individual bears. We further show that subsistence-caught whale carcasses provide an upper threshold of > 4000 seal equivalents, which could potentially meet mean consumption needs of ~ 80% of the southern Beaufort Sea bear subpopulation during autumn and winter periods. Finally, we modify an existing model to show that observed mass changes over autumn and winter could substantially alter spring foraging habitat choice by females with cubs and the chance that a female with reduced energy reserves would abort a pregnancy or abandon cubs in favor of increasing her own survival; these behaviors could potentially influence population vital rates. Our study highlights the importance of mass dynamics over the autumn and winter months, points to the need for additional data on foraging and energetics over this period, and indicates that the recent declines in polar bear body condition in some subpopulations could have complex effects on reproduction.

Evaluating the efficacy of aerial infrared surveys to detect artificial polar bear dens

AbstractThe need to balance economic development with impacts to Arctic wildlife has been a prominent subject since petroleum exploration began on the North Slope of Alaska, USA, in the late 1950s. The North Slope region includes polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation, which has experienced a long‐term decline in abundance. Pregnant polar bears dig dens in snow drifts during winter and are vulnerable to disturbance, as den abandonment and mortality of neonates may result. Maternal denning coincides with the peak season of petroleum exploration and construction, raising concerns that human activities may disrupt denning. To minimize disturbance of denning polar bears, aerial infrared (AIR) surveys are routinely used to search for dens within planned industry activity areas and that information is used to implement mitigation. Aerial infrared surveys target the heat signature emanating from dens. Despite use by industry for >15 years, the efficacy of AIR and the factors that impact its ability to detect dens remains uncertain. Here, we evaluate AIR using artificial dens and observers naïve to locations to estimate detection probability and its relationship with covariates including weather variables, den characteristics, infrared sensor and altitude, and survey order to identify potential evidence of in‐flight observer learning occurring between surveys. In December 2019 we constructed 14 dens (each with an artificial heat source), and 11 control sites (disturbed sites without dens). Between December 2019 and January 2020, 3 survey crews flew 6 independent AIR surveys within the vicinity of dens and control sites and video‐recorded AIR imagery. Observers identified putative dens either in flight or during post‐flight review of recordings. We assessed detection probability with a simple Bayesian model using 3 subsets of data: 1) all detection/non‐detection data; 2) detection/non‐detection data restricted to instances where sample sites were confirmed to have been properly scanned by AIR during post‐study verification (i.e., when den locations were known); and 3) all dens visible on the recorded imagery during post‐study verification, even if they were not seen during the survey or during post‐flight review. Subsets 1 and 2 most closely resembled den surveys flown for oil and gas industry and had detection probabilities of 0.15 (95% CI = 0.08–0.23) and 0.24 (95% CI = 0.13–0.37), respectively. Detection probability was 0.41 (95% CI = 0.25–0.58) for subset 3. Higher wind speeds and larger den volume negatively influenced detection probability. Our low detection rate compared to previous studies could partially be the result of differences in study design, such as survey flight patterns. Our results suggest that AIR, as it is currently used, is unlikely to detect most polar bear dens in surveyed areas. Resource managers who use AIR should consider a suite of additional methods (e.g., habitat mapping, probabilistic den distribution, AIR methodology improvements) for minimizing impacts of industry on denning polar bears.

Stable isotope differences of polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea

AbstractThe life‐history, genetic, and habitat use differences between the 2 polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in Alaska, USA, have been used to determine the geographic border separating them, but it has sparked a debate of the correct placement of the border for several years. Recently, the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) polar bear subpopulation has declined because of sea ice loss, while the Chukchi Sea (CS) subpopulation appears stable. To provide additional information about potential differences between the SBS and CS subpopulations, such as differences in prey sources, we used stable isotope analysis of carbon and nitrogen from bone collagen of polar bears in these 2 neighboring subpopulations. We analyzed polar bear bones from 112 individuals collected from 1954–2019. Our purpose was to determine if the SBS and CS subpopulations could be distinguished based on the stable isotope signatures of bone collagen. A difference >1‰ in stable carbon isotope (δ13C) values suggests a change in carbon sources, such as nearshore to offshore, while a 3‰ change in stable nitrogen isotope (δ15N) values equates to a change of about 1 trophic level. Our study indicated a difference in δ13C values (P ≤ 0.001) but not δ15N values (P = 0.654) between the CS (−13.0 ± 0.3‰ and 22.0 ± 0.9‰, respectively) and SBS bears (−14.7 ± 1.3‰ and 22.2 ± 1.0‰, respectively). Our findings indicate that the 2 subpopulations are consuming similar high trophic level prey, while feeding in ecosystems with different δ13C baselines. We performed a logistic regression analysis using δ13C and δ15N values of the polar bears to predict their placement into these 2 subpopulations. Using Icy Cape, Alaska as the geographical boundary, the analysis correctly placed polar bears in their respective subpopulations 82% of the time. Overall accuracy of placement changed to 84% when using the current geographical boundary at Utqiaġvik, Alaska. We predicted samples collected from the Wainwright, Alaska region as 58% CS and 42% SBS polar bears. This suggests that the area between Wainwright and Icy Cape is a polar bear mixing zone that includes bears from both subpopulations. Bone collagen has a long‐term, potentially life‐long, stable isotope turnover rate, and our results could be used to determine the association of harvested polar bears to Alaska subpopulations, thus aiding in transboundary harvest quota management.

Distinct gut microbiomes in two polar bear subpopulations inhabiting different sea ice ecoregions

Gut microbiomes were analyzed by 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB), where sea ice loss has led to increased use of land-based food resources by bears, and from East Greenland (EG), where persistent sea ice has allowed hunting of ice-associated prey nearly year-round. SB polar bears showed a higher number of total (940 vs. 742) and unique (387 vs. 189) amplicon sequence variants and higher inter-individual variation compared to EG polar bears. Gut microbiome composition differed significantly between the two subpopulations and among sex/age classes, likely driven by diet variation and ontogenetic shifts in the gut microbiome. Dietary tracer analysis using fatty acid signatures for SB polar bears showed that diet explained more intrapopulation variation in gut microbiome composition and diversity than other tested variables, i.e., sex/age class, body condition, and capture year. Substantial differences in the SB gut microbiome relative to EG polar bears, and associations between SB gut microbiome and diet, suggest that the shifting foraging habits of SB polar bears tied to sea ice loss may be altering their gut microbiome, with potential consequences for nutrition and physiology.

Fecal DNA metabarcoding shows credible short-term prey detections and explains variation in the gut microbiome of two polar bear subpopulations

This study developed and evaluated DNA metabarcoding to identify the presence of pinniped and cetacean prey DNA in fecal samples of East Greenland (EG) and Southern Beaufort Sea (SB) polar bearsUrsus maritimussampled in the spring of 2015-2019. Prey DNA was detected in half (49/92) of all samples, and when detected, ringed sealPusa hispidawas the predominant prey species, identified in 100% (22/22) of EG and 81% (22/27) of SB polar bear samples with prey DNA detected. Bearded sealErignathus barbatusDNA was found in 19% (5/27) of SB polar bear samples for which prey DNA was detected. Prey DNA detection frequencies and relative abundances were compared to estimates from quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) for a subset of SB polar bears. Ringed seal and bearded seal were the main prey identified by both methods, but QFASA also identified 2 cetacean prey species not found by prey DNA. Differences in DNA metabarcoding vs. QFASA results were likely related to the different dietary timescales captured by each approach, i.e. short-term vs. long-term diet, respectively. Prey DNA detection, sex/age class, and subpopulation significantly explained variation in polar bear gut bacterial composition. Polar bear samples with prey DNA detected were associated with higher abundances of the bacterial classes Clostridia and Bacilli and lower abundances of Negativicutes. Fecal DNA metabarcoding is thus useful for identifying recent prey of polar bears, complementing quantitative and likely longer-term QFASA estimates, and may help understand variation in the polar bear gut microbiome.