Southern Annular Mode Index Research Articles

ACCESS-S2 seasonal forecasts of rainfall and the SAM–rainfall relationship during the grain growing season in south-west Western Australia

South-west Western Australia (SWWA) is home to a world class grains industry that is significantly affected by periods of drought. Previous research has shown a link between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and rainfall in SWWA, especially during winter months. Hence, the predictability of the SAM and its relationship to SWWA rainfall can potentially improve forecasts of SWWA drought, which would provide valuable information for farmers. In this paper, focusing on the 0-month lead time forecast, we assess the bias and skill of ACCESS-S2, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s current operational sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system, in simulating seasonal rainfall for SWWA during the growing season (May–October). We then analyse the relationship between the SAM and SWWA precipitation and how well this is captured in ACCESS-S2 as well as how well ACCESS-S2 forecasts the monthly SAM index. Finally, ACCESS-S2 rainfall forecasts and the simulation of SAM are assessed for a case study of extreme drought in 2010. Our results show that forecasts tend to have greater skill in the earlier part of the season (May–July). ACCESS-S2 captures the significant inverse SAM–rainfall relationship but underestimates its strength. The model also shows overall skill in forecasting the monthly SAM index and simulating the MSLP and 850-hPa wind anomaly patterns associated with positive and negative SAM phases. However, for the 2010 drought case study, ACCESS-S2 does not indicate strong likelihoods of the upcoming dry conditions, particularly for later in the growing season, despite predicting a positive (although weaker than observed) SAM index. Although ACCESS-S2 is shown to skillfully depict the SAM–SWWA rainfall relationship and generally forecast the SAM index well, the seasonal rainfall forecasts still show limited skill. Hence it is likely that model errors unrelated to the SAM are contributing to limited skill in seasonal rainfall forecasts for SWWA, as well as the generally low seasonal-timescale predictability for the region.

Local and Remote Atmosphere‐Ocean Coupling During Extreme Warming Events Impacting Subsurface Ocean Temperature in an Antarctic Embayment

AbstractCoastal ocean temperatures can respond to different atmospheric and oceanic processes at local spatial scales or through remote teleconnections. This study focused on subsurface ocean temperatures (subT) at 10 m depth in Maxwell Bay, northern Antarctic Peninsula from February 2017 and January 2022. It investigated extreme warming events during austral summers and their interaction with atmospheric and oceanic conditions regionally and locally. The analysis identified active and extreme Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) in March 2017 and January‐February 2020 associated with a significantly negative Southern Annular Mode index observed 3–4 months before the temperature increase. In March 2017, temperatures exceeded the climatological mean by over 1°C. This anomaly was linked to a strengthened Amundsen Sea Low and a blocking anticyclone moving between the Scotia Sea and the South‐West Atlantic Ocean that deflected westerly winds and facilitated the anomalous transport of warmer northern air masses to the AP. In January‐February 2020, the highest recorded subT was observed (2.97°C), although air‐sea heat fluxes did not show a similar pattern. In February 2020, one of the most intense atmospheric heatwaves ever recorded in West Antarctica was observed. This heatwave corresponded with maximum subT and positive sea surface temperature anomalies extending throughout the western region of the Southern Ocean, related to an extremely negative Southern Annular Mode. This study provides valuable insights into the impact of strong MHWs, a phenomenon that has been less documented in Antarctic coastal regions.

Near-surface wind speed trends and variability over the Antarctic Peninsula, 1979–2022

Near-Surface Wind Speed (SWS) is a crucial but less studied climate variable in the northern Antarctic Peninsula (AP). This research evaluates, for the first time, 44 years (i.e., 1979–2022) of SWS trends and variability across the AP using two data sources: (i) observational data from quality-controlled and homogenized meteorological stations, and (ii) reanalysis data from ERA5; the accuracy of this product strongly depends on each station with an overall underestimation of observed SWS. Annual trends in observed SWS exhibit a positive trend, being statistically significant in autumn and spring, with a marked intraanual and spatial variability in the sign and magnitudes across the AP. In addition, the multidecadal variability of observed SWS showed a general positive trend until ∼2001 (varying between 1993 and 2007 depending on each season), followed by a period of slowdown in the last two decades. Over the AP, SWS changes are mainly driven by two principal modes of atmospheric variability: i.e., mainly the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and, secondarily, by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Overall, positive trends in SWS could be partly associated with the increase and poleward shift of the westerlies due to the positive trend of the SAM index. However, as previous studies pointed out for air temperature and precipitation, we found a non-stationary and complex relationship of these modes with SWS changes. This research addresses the gap in SWS changes and variability in the AP and surrounding Southern Ocean and the influence of the atmospheric circulation, a hotspot area in climate change research.

Technical note: An improved methodology for calculating the Southern Annular Mode index to aid consistency between climate studies

Abstract. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) strongly influences climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. The SAM index describes the phase and magnitude of the SAM and can be calculated by measuring the difference in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) between middle and high latitudes. This study investigates the effects of calculation methods and data resolution on the SAM index, and subsequent interpretations of SAM impacts and trends. We show that the normalisation step that is traditionally used in calculating the SAM index leads to substantial differences in the magnitude of the SAM index calculated at different temporal resolutions. Additionally, the equal weighting that the normalisation approach gives to MSLP variability at the middle and high southern latitudes artificially alters temperature and precipitation correlations and the interpretation of climate change trends in the SAM. These issues can be overcome by instead using a natural SAM index based on MSLP anomalies, resulting in consistent scaling and variability in the SAM index calculated at daily, monthly and annual data resolutions. The natural SAM index has improved representation of SAM impacts in the high southern latitudes, including the asymmetric (zonal wave-3) component of MSLP variability, whereas the increased weighting given to mid-latitude MSLP variability in the normalised SAM index incorporates a stronger component of tropical climate variability that is not directly associated with SAM variability. We conclude that an improved approach of calculating the SAM index from MSLP anomalies without normalisation would aid consistency across climate studies and avoid potential ambiguity in the SAM index, including SAM index reconstructions from palaeoclimate data, and thus enable more consistent interpretations of SAM trends and impacts.

How Does the Southern Annular Mode Control Surface Melt in East Antarctica?

AbstractSurface melt in East Antarctica is strongly correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, but the spatiotemporal variability of the relationship, and the physical processes responsible for it, have not been examined. Here, using melt flux estimates and climate variables from the RACMO2.3p3 regional climate model, we show that a decreasing SAM index is associated with increased melt in Dronning Maud Land primarily owing to reduced precipitation and greater absorption of solar radiation. Conversely, in Wilkes Land, a decreasing SAM index corresponds to increased melt because of greater incoming longwave radiation from a warmer atmosphere. We also demonstrate that SAM‐melt correlations are strongest in December as the melt season develops, and that the SAM’s influence on peak melt intensities in January occurs indirectly through the snowmelt‐albedo feedback. Future work must account for such variability in the physical processes underlying the SAM‐melt relationship to reduce uncertainty in surface melt projections.

Atmospheric Δ14C in the northern and southern hemispheres over the past two millennia: Role of production rate, southern hemisphere westerly winds and ocean circulation changes

The variations of atmospheric Δ14C over the past two millennia are classically attributed to changes in its production rate in the upper atmosphere, which in turn is related to changes in solar activity and the Earth's magnetic field. However, the potential contribution of atmospheric and oceanic circulation changes during this period has not been precisely quantified. This has been achieved here using a coupled climate model simulating explicitly the evolution of the different carbon isotopes, driven by a new estimate of 14C production derived from 10Be measurements, and using different production rates for each hemisphere. Our results confirm that changes in global and hemispheric atmospheric Δ14C are primarily driven by changes in production rate. The very good agreement between our results and observed atmospheric Δ14C also highlights the strong consistency of current interpretations of 10Be and 14C measurements. By contrast, the interhemispheric difference in atmospheric Δ14C is controlled by changes in the intensity of southern hemisphere westerly winds (SHWW) that impact atmosphere-ocean exchange and the upwelling of 14C depleted water masses in the Southern Ocean. Changes in deep water formation in both hemispheres or open ocean polynyas in the Southern Ocean only have a small impact on atmospheric Δ14C over that period. When driven by changes in the SHWW proportional to three existing reconstructions of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, the model reproduces some key characteristics of the observed interhemispheric Δ14C gradient. These include the low values in the 15th century and the peak in the 16th century, but there are also clear differences between the experiments and Δ14C observations. This suggests that while SAM reconstructions capture some robust features in the centennial variability, large uncertainties remain.

Detection and mapping of supraglacial lakes on East Antarctic margin using Landsat 8 OLI during 2014–2023

Using an optical band index generated from Landsat 8 OLI data, an inventory of Antarctic supraglacial lakes (size >0.01 km2) during 2014–2023 is presented. Shaded snow, cloud and rock shadow were removed by using a band-based filter. Over the north Antarctica, we identified 639 lakes covering an area of 520.79 km2, 1025 lakes covering 272.82 km2 over the East Antarctica, and 1045 lakes covering 93 km2 over the Transantarctic Mountains. The influence of air temperature, 10-m zonal/meridional wind components and climate indices on surface melt were investigated. Over the Dronning Maud Land, air temperature promoted melt, while Föhn and katabatic winds warmed adiabatically along the leeward side of the elevated features and initiated melt in south Antarctica. Nearly all areas have exhibited a decrease in melt over the past few years, and the number of melt cases dropped after 2020. Negative SAM index favoured melt over the Dronning Maud Land. This study identified new SGLs, which will be a benchmark for further studies. The undulating terrain posed a difficulty for collecting and interpreting satellite data, which should be addressed using advanced technologies and algorithms.

The Deep‐Water Plume in the Northwestern Weddell Sea, Antarctica: Mean State, Seasonal Cycle and Interannual Variability Influenced by Climate Modes

AbstractWe provide an updated estimate of the annual‐mean, seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the transports and properties of the Weddell Sea Bottom Water (WSBW) plume in the northwestern Weddell Sea. For this we used a densely instrumented mooring array deployed across the continental slope between January 2017 and January 2019. We found that the annual‐mean WSBW transport is 3.4 ± 1.5 Sv, corresponding to a cross‐section area of 35 km2 and a maximum thickness of 203 m. The annual mean transport‐weighted properties of WSBW are −0.99°C (Θ), 34.803 g/kg (SA) and 28.44 kg/m3 (γn). The WSBW is characterized by 3 bottom‐intensified velocity cores, which display seasonal variations in flow speed and transport different varieties of WSBW. The seasonal peak of WSBW transport and density is reached in May (4.7 Sv, 28.443 kg m−3) while the minimum values are observed in February (2.8 Sv, 28.435 kg m−3). The coldest WSBW is found between March and May, and the warmest between August and October. The density decrease of WSBW observed in the austral autumn of 2018 can be explained by warmer ambient waters being entrained during the formation of WSBW. This was enabled by the weakening of the along‐shore winds associated with a positive Southern Annular Mode index, reinforced by a La Niña event in early 2018. The synchronous decrease of total WSBW transport and volume between September 2018 and February 2019 indicates a reduction in the export of the dense precursors of WSBW from the Weddell Sea continental shelf.

Spatiotemporal change analysis for snowmelt over the Antarctic ice shelves using scatterometers

Using Scatterometer-based backscatter data, the spatial and temporal melt dynamics of Antarctic ice shelves were tracked from 2000 to 2018. We constructed melt onset and duration maps for the whole Antarctic ice shelves using a pixel-based, adaptive threshold approach based on backscatter during the transition period between winter and summer. We explore the climatic influences on the spatial extent and timing of snowmelt using meteorological data from automatic weather stations and investigate the climatic controls on the spatial extent and timing of snowmelt. Melt extent usually starts in the latter week of November, peaks in the end of December/January, and vanishes in the first/second week of February on most ice shelves. On the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), the average melt was 70 days, with the melt onset on 20 November for almost 50% of the region. In comparison to the AP, the Eastern Antarctic experienced less melt, with melt lasting 40–50 days. For the Larsen-C, Shackleton, Amery, and Fimbul ice shelf, there was a substantial link between melt area and air temperature. A significant correlation is found between increased temperature advection and high melt area for the Amery, Shackleton, and Larsen-C ice shelves. The time series of total melt area showed a decreasing trend of −196 km2/yr which was statistical significant at 97% interval. The teleconnections discovered between melt area and the combined anomalies of Southern Annular Mode and Southern Oscillation Index point to the high southern latitudes being coupled to the global climate system. The most persistent and intensive melt occurred on the AP, West Ice Shelf, Shackleton Ice Shelf, and Amery Ice Shelf, which should be actively monitored for future stability.

Stable Southern Hemisphere westerly winds throughout the Holocene until intensification in the last two millennia

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds sustain the Southern Ocean’s role as one of Earth’s main carbon sinks, and have helped sequester nearly half the anthropogenic CO2 stored in the ocean. Observations show shifts in the vigor of this climate regulator, but models disagree how future change impacts carbon storage due to scarce baseline data. Here, we use the hydrogen isotope ratios of sedimentary lipids to resolve Holocene changes in Southern Hemisphere westerly wind strength. Our reconstruction reveals stable values until ~2150 years ago when aquatic compounds became more 2H-enriched. We attribute this isotope excursion to wind-driven lake water evaporation, and regional paleoclimate evidence shows it marks a trend towards a negative Southern Annular Mode – the Southern Ocean’s main mode of atmospheric variability. Because this shift is unmatched in the past 7000 years, our findings suggest that previously published millennium-long Southern Annular Mode indices used to benchmark future change may not capture the full range of natural variability.

The Dominant Role of Brewer‐Dobson Circulation on 17O‐Excess Variations in Snow Pits at Dome A, Antarctica

AbstractRecent studies have suggested that water isotopologues in snow pits from remote East Antarctica can be influenced by the input of stratospheric water, which has anomalously high 17O‐excess values. However, it remains unclear whether the 17O‐excess records preserved in snow and ice from this region can be used to reconstruct stratosphere‐troposphere exchange (STE). In this study, we present high‐resolution 17O‐excess records from two snow pits at Dome A, the highest point of the Antarctic ice sheet. The 17O‐excess records show a significant positive correlation with the strength of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC), the hemispheric‐scale troposphere‐stratosphere overturn circulation. Stronger BDC leads to more stratospheric water input over Antarctica and higher 17O‐excess, and vice versa. In addition, the 17O‐excess records also have a significant positive correlation with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, because SAM modulates Antarctic precipitation, which has a dilution effect on the stratospheric water input. The 17O‐excess records do not show significant correlations with local temperature and relative humidity in the moisture source region. These results suggest the dominant effect of BDC on 17O‐excess and indicate the potential for using 17O‐excess records in ice cores from remote sites in East Antarctica for reconstructing long‐term variations of STE, and understanding their mechanisms and climate effects.

The influence of mesoscale climate drivers on hypoxia in a fjord-like deep coastal inlet and its potential implications regarding climate change: examining a decade of water quality data

Abstract. Deep coastal inlets are sites of high sedimentation and organic carbon deposition that account for 11 % of the world's organic carbon burial. Australasia's mid- to high-latitude regions have many such systems. It is important to understand the role of climate forcings in influencing hypoxia and organic matter cycling in these systems, but many such systems, especially in Australasia, remain poorly described. We analysed a decade of in situ water quality data from Macquarie Harbour, Tasmania, a deep coastal inlet with more than 180 000 t of organic carbon loading per annum. Monthly dissolved oxygen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations were significantly affected by rainfall patterns. Increased rainfall was correlated to higher organic carbon and nitrogen loading, lower oxygen concentrations in deep basins, and greater oxygen concentrations in surface waters. Most notably, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) significantly influenced oxygen distribution in the system. High river flow (associated with low SAM index values) impedes deep water renewal as the primary mechanism driving basin water hypoxia. Climate forecasting predicts increased winter rainfall and decreased summer rainfall, which may further exacerbate hypoxia in this system. Currently, Macquarie Harbour's basins experience frequent (up to 36 % of the time) and prolonged (up to 2 years) oxygen-poor conditions that may promote greenhouse gas (CH4, N2O) production altering the processing of organic matter entering the system. The increased winter rainfall predicted for the area will likely promote the increased spread and duration of hypoxia in the basins. Further understanding of these systems and how they respond to climate change will improve our estimates of future organic matter cycling (burial vs. export).

Subantarctic Mode Water Variations in the Three Southern Hemisphere Ocean Basins During 2004–2019

AbstractSubantarctic mode water (SAMW) variations and their forcing mechanisms in the three Southern Hemisphere ocean basins are studied using Argo data and reanalysis products during the 2004–2019 period. In the Indian and Pacific Oceans, SAMW is characterized by potential vorticity (PV) minimums lower than 0.5 × 10−10 m−1 s−1. In the Atlantic Ocean, the PV minimum is generally lower than 1 × 10−10 m−1 s−1. The variations in SAMW thickness are significantly correlated with changes in the mixed layer depth (MLD) and show large differences among different ocean basins. The winter MLD in the Indian Ocean SAMW formation region is significantly positively correlated with the local wind stress curl (correlation coefficient = 0.61; 95% confidence level). In the Pacific and Atlantic SAMW formation regions, the variations in the winter MLD have significant negative correlations with the buoyancy flux; the correlation coefficients reach −0.57 and −0.67 (95% confidence level), respectively. These different mechanisms of the MLD variations in SAMW in the three ocean basins are related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variation in winter. During positive (negative) SAM index periods, a strong positive (negative) wind stress curl anomaly occurs in association with a meridionally asymmetric westerly wind anomaly distribution. This phenomenon results in a corresponding MLD anomaly over the Indian Ocean SAMW formation region. In the Pacific and Atlantic SAMW formation regions, a negative (positive) westerly wind anomaly induces buoyancy gain (loss), leading to mixed layer shallowing (deepening) during positive (negative) SAM periods.

On the Intermittent Occurrence of Open‐Ocean Polynyas in a Multi‐Century High‐Resolution Preindustrial Earth System Model Simulation

AbstractA 500‐year‐long high‐resolution Community Earth System Model simulation under preindustrial radiative forcing produces Maud Rise Polynyas (MRPs) and Weddell Sea Polynya (WSP) events intermittently from decadal (MRP) to multidecadal (WSP) timescales. This periodicity is correlated with the variation of a regional Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index (evaluated regionally instead of circum‐Antarctic) with corresponding variations of precipitation and winds over the Weddell Sea. A negative index causes the upper‐ocean salinity to increase over multiple decades. Ultimately, brine rejection during seasonal sea‐ice formation superimposed on the multidecadal increase raises the upper‐ocean salinity beyond the tipping point for triggering deep convection that leads to polynyas. The initiation of polynya events is thus controlled by surface properties while the location of initiation is determined by bathymetric features. The persistent Taylor column effect, which is well represented by the high‐resolution model topography of the Maud Rise seamount, preconditions this region for MRP initiation. Therefore, MRPs form more frequently than WSPs in the simulation. When the upper‐ocean salinity is high, deep convection in the MRP region tends to be stronger, in which case MRPs are also more likely to grow into WSPs. Once WSPs emerge, they affect the regional atmospheric circulation and associated variables. We propose a regional coupled ocean‐atmosphere mechanism to explain both the periodic emergence of polynyas and the periodic variation of the regional SAM index. Although the temperature and salinity of Weddell Deep Water show upward trends due to model drift, these density‐compensating changes do not affect the frequency of polynya formation.

Indian Ocean Subtropical Underwater and the Interannual Variability in Its Annual Subduction Rate Associated with the Southern Annular Mode

Abstract In this study, the Indian Ocean Subtropical Underwater (IOSTUW) was investigated as a subsurface salinity maximum using Argo floats (2000–20) for the first time. It has mean salinity, potential temperature, and potential density values of 35.54 ± 0.29 psu, 17.91° ± 1.66°C, and 25.56 ± 0.35 kg m−3, respectively, and mainly extends between 10° and 30°S along the isopycnal surface in the subtropical south Indian Ocean. The annual subduction rate of the IOSTUW during the period of 2004–19 was investigated based on a gridded Argo dataset. The results revealed a mean value of 4.39 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) with an interannual variability that is closely related to the southern annular mode (SAM). The variation in the annual subduction rate of the IOSTUW is dominated by the lateral induction term, which largely depends on the winter mixed layer depth (MLD) in the sea surface salinity (SSS) maximum region. The anomalies of winter MLD are primarily determined by SAM-related air–sea heat flux and zonal wind anomalies through modulation of the buoyancy. As a result, the annual subduction rate of the IOSTUW generally increased when the SAM index showed negative anomalies and decreased when the SAM index showed positive anomalies. Exceptional cases occurred when the wind anomaly within the SSS maximum region was weak or was dominated by its meridional component. Significance Statement The Indian Ocean Subtropical Underwater (IOSTUW) is characterized as a subsurface salinity maximum in the subtropical south Indian Ocean, and it has potential contribution to regional sea level change and interoceanic salinity exchange. The purpose of this work is to give a more precise description of the IOSTUW and to better understand the formation process of this water mass. Our results shine new light on hydrological characteristics of the IOSTUW based on an observational dataset collected during the past two decades. In addition, the formation of the IOSTUW was found to be closely related to the leading mode of variability in the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere though air–sea heat flux and surface wind anomaly.

Statistical analysis of the relationship between Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is an extratropical pattern that influences the climate of all Southern Hemisphere. However, the variability of this mode is an active area of research. The influence of lower frequency modes on SAM is a path to better knowledge about this pattern. The relationship between Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and SAM’s counterpart in the Northern Hemisphere (Northern Annular Mode) has been addressed by previous work. Still, few studies focus on the association between QBO and SAM. The goal of this work was to evaluate the possible QBO-SAM relationship through statistical analyses. This association was investigated by comparing QBO and SAM indices, the latter on different levels of the troposphere and stratosphere, for the 1981-2010 period. The wavelet analysis showed that the SAM indices for troposphere and stratosphere presented variability in many scales, including a two-year band. Cross-wavelets techniques between QBO and SAM ratified that this relation has a complex interaction. There was a significant common high power around the two-year band, with lags varying over the analyzed period, including no lag. Further analysis without lag confirmed previous studies, indicating that the negative (positive) SAM phase is more frequent for easterly (westerly) QBO. However, this was not valid for all months. Some additional analysis suggested that the upward wave propagation to the stratosphere for each QBO phase changes the stratospheric jet and, consequently, the SAM phase.

Link of ENSO and Southern Annular Mode as elements of Global Atmospheric Oscillation

Based on the monthly average data of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, using a specially developed technique, the interannual variability of the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies associated with the Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) for the period 1950-2021 was studied. The field of mean deviations of the SLP anomalies during the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the interannual GAO variability has been calculated. It is shown that the variability of the SLP anomalies during the GAO contains, in addition to the mode associated with the ENSO, also the mode of interannual climatic variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) – the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It was found that the GAO does not include a part of the SLP anomaly variability associated with El Niño and La Niña events of the Central Pacific type. At all other grid nodes, the field of mean deviations of the SLP anomalies in the ENSO from the GAO has SLP differences slightly different from zero and formally statistically insignificant. This means that in the interannual climatic variability of the SLP associated with the GAO, there are only two modes: ENSO and SAM. With the help of cross-wavelet analysis, the relationships between the ENSO and SAM indices were studied. Negative relationships were found between these indices on fluctuation periods of about 11 years. An analysis of the time series of these indices and the time series of total solar irradiance (TSI) made it possible to put forward a hypothesis about the influence of synchronization and desynchronization of quasi-11-year changes in solar activity and ENSO on the weakening and strengthening of negative relationships between ENSO and SAM at periods of oscillations of about 11 years.

Automated mapping of the seasonal evolution of surface meltwater and its links to climate on the Amery Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Abstract. Surface meltwater is widespread around the Antarctic Ice Sheet margin and has the potential to influence ice shelf stability, ice flow and ice–albedo feedbacks. Our understanding of the seasonal and multi-year evolution of Antarctic surface meltwater is limited. Attempts to generate robust meltwater cover time series have largely been constrained by computational expense or limited ice surface visibility associated with mapping from optical satellite imagery. Here, we add a novel method for calculating visibility metrics to an existing meltwater detection method within Google Earth Engine. This enables us to quantify uncertainty induced by cloud cover and variable image data coverage, allowing time series of surface meltwater area to be automatically generated over large spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate our method on the Amery Ice Shelf region of East Antarctica, analysing 4164 Landsat 7 and 8 optical images between 2005 and 2020. Results show high interannual variability in surface meltwater cover, with mapped cumulative lake area totals ranging from 384 to 3898 km2 per melt season. By incorporating image visibility assessments, however, we estimate that cumulative total lake areas are on average 42 % higher than minimum mapped values. We show that modelled melt predictions from a regional climate model provide a good indication of lake cover in the Amery region and that annual lake coverage is typically highest in years with a negative austral summer SAM index. Our results demonstrate that our method could be scaled up to generate a multi-year time series record of surface water extent from optical imagery at a continent-wide scale.

Stepping stones towards Antarctica: Switch to southern spawning grounds explains an abrupt range shift in krill.

Poleward range shifts are a global-scale response to warming, but these vary greatly among taxa and are hard to predict for individual species, localized regions or over shorter (years to decadal) timescales. Moving poleward might be easier in the Arctic than in the Southern Ocean, where evidence for range shifts is sparse and contradictory. Here, we compiled a database of larval Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba and, together with an adult database, it showed how their range shift is out of step with the pace of warming. During a 70-year period of rapid warming (1920s-1990s), distribution centres of both larvae and adults in the SW Atlantic sector remained fixed, despite warming by 0.5-1.0°C and losing sea ice. This was followed by a hiatus in surface warming and ice loss, yet during this period the distributions of krill life stages shifted greatly, by ~1000km, to the south-west. Understanding the mechanism of such step changes is essential, since they herald system reorganizations that are hard to predict with current modelling approaches. We propose that the abrupt shift was driven by climatic controls acting on localized recruitment hotspots, superimposed on thermal niche conservatism. During the warming hiatus, the Southern Annular Mode index continued to become increasingly positive and, likely through reduced feeding success for larvae, this led to a precipitous decline in recruitment from the main reproduction hotspot along the southern Scotia Arc. This cut replenishment to the northern portion of the krill stock, as evidenced by declining density and swarm frequency. Concomitantly, a new, southern reproduction area developed after the 1990s, reinforcing the range shift despite the lack of surface warming. New spawning hotspots may provide the stepping stones needed for range shifts into polar regions, so planning of climate-ready marine protected areas should include these key areas of future habitat.

Cyclostationary EOF Modes of Antarctic Sea Ice and Their Application in Prediction

AbstractThis study examines the modes of sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Southern Ocean from a new perspective using the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) method, which decomposes a space‐time field into a combination of modulating variability on phase‐locked annual cycles. The first CSEOF mode of SIC (72.55% of total variance) represents the normal annual cycle modulated by a low‐frequency oscillation. The second mode of SIC (3.39%) represents the trend pattern, which reveals that the SIC increases in most regions of the Southern Ocean except for those adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula, wherein the decreasing SIC trend is evident in austral warm seasons. This trend mode also explains that the sea ice in the Weddell Sea is increasing in austral summer and decreasing in austral winter. The Principal Component (PC) of this model is negatively corrected with the Southern Annular Mode index with a correlation coefficient of about −0.5. The third mode of SIC (2.48%) represents a wavenumber‐2 Antarctic Circumpolar Wave mode that is linked to ENSO. As the CSEOF method decomposes the space‐time SIC field into low‐frequency modulations of phase‐locked annual cycles, it can be used for SIC prediction, by taking the spatial modes as the basis functions and predicting their PCs from the autoregressive models. However, this CSEOF‐based SIC prediction model exhibits unsatisfactory forecast skills, even with optimized model parameters. Therefore, it is still necessary to study more SIC prediction models and evaluate their forecast skills in the future.