Southwest Tasmania Research Articles

False Promise: World Heritage, Ecotourism, and the Local Community of Strahan, Tasmania

The inscription of properties on the World Heritage List often places restrictions on existing livelihoods. In these contexts, tourism is widely held to be a panacea for the economic and social wellbeing of local communities. Ecotourism, in particular, is regarded as addressing both environmental and social needs of communities. However, existing research demonstrates that tourism seldom delivers benefits to Indigenous peoples or local communities in developing countries. This paper suggests that such limitations are equally problematic for local communities in developed nations such as Australia. Through ethnographic research including participant observation and interviews, this paper describes the impacts of tourism on the local community of Strahan, a small logging, fishing, and mining town that transformed into a tourism village following the World Heritage listing of Southwest Tasmania. We suggest that contrary to the widely held view that tourism created employment and economic growth in the town, locals experience diminished quality of life, limited opportunities, and reduced amenity and services. This suggests that ecotourism overlooks its responsibilities for local communities in developed countries, with profound consequences for social sustainability.

Is regional variability in environmental conditions driving differences in the early body condition of endemic Australian fur seal pups?

Context Good body condition in juvenile marine mammals is crucial for survival and, therefore, population demography. Australian fur seals, endemic to Australia, recently established a breeding colony at the southern edge of their range, at The Needles, a small group of islands in south-west Tasmania (43.6614°S) and a significant distance from their core breeding range in Bass Strait. Aims We aimed to compare pup body condition at two breeding colonies, distinct in time since establishment and latitude. Specific aims were to: (1) establish the timing of peak pupping, to compare condition of known-age pups, and determine a baseline at The Needles; (2) investigate pup body condition over time at an established colony; and (3) gain insight into the effects of environmental conditions on pup body condition. Methods We conducted a colony comparison of pup body condition using condition indices at The Needles and an established breeding colony in Bass Strait, Tenth Island, for the 2019/20 and 2020/21 breeding seasons. Pup body condition was quantified at Tenth Island over 18 years (2003–2020) using a long-term morphometric dataset. To establish breeding phenology at these two colonies, we determined peak pupping date for the 2019/20 breeding season using daily pup counts. We assessed the effect of environmental parameters on body condition for the long-term dataset. Key results Pups from The Needles displayed significantly higher body condition than those from Tenth Island, despite similar peak pupping date. Breeding phenology was consistent with published timing for Australian fur seals. Pup body condition at Tenth Island over the 2-year colony comparison was comparable to the historical average. Environmental drivers that affect maternal foraging efficiency are linked to pup body condition. Conclusions Higher pup body condition at The Needles is likely underpinned by better foraging conditions resulting in increased pup provisioning levels. Our results indicate that south-west Tasmania is a region of foraging and emerging breeding importance for Australian fur seals. Implications Future research to monitor pup body condition, maternal foraging behaviour and ecosystem productivity at The Needles will help to provide greater understanding of likely population trajectories at this southernmost breeding site for Australian fur seals.

The influence of climatic change, fire and species invasion on a Tasmanian temperate rainforest system over the past 18,000 years

We aim to understand how did cool temperate rainforest respond to changes in climate and fire activity over the past 18 kcal yrs, interrogating the role that flammable plant species (such as Eucalyptus) have in the long-term dynamics of rainforest vegetation. We used high-resolution pollen and charcoal analysis, radiometric dating (lead and carbon), modern pollen-vegetation relationships, detrended correspondence analysis, rarefaction (palynological richness), rate of change and granger causality to understand the patterns and drivers of change in cool temperate rainforest from the sediments of Lake Vera, southwest Tasmania through time. We record clear changes in key rainforest taxa in response to climatic change throughout the record. The spread of rainforest through the lake catchment in the early and mid-Holocene effectively negated disturbance from fire despite a region-wide peak in fire activity. An anomalously dry period in the late-Holocene resulted in a local fire that facilitated the establishment of Eucalyptus within the local catchment. Granger causality tests reveal a significant lead of Eucalyptus over fire activity in the Holocene, indicating that fires were enhanced by this pyrogenic taxon following establishment.

Following the Franklin: using film footage ethnographically to study archaeological practice in Tasmania

When archaeologists Rhys Jones, Jim Allen and others undertook archaeological investigations in the newly proclaimed World Heritage Area in southwest Tasmania following the Franklin River Dam campaign, they were accompanied by a film-maker from the then Australian Institute of Aboriginal Studies (AIAS). A short archaeological report published within the same year gives a linear account of these investigations. The film footage—which lay unedited and unseen at the now Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies (AIATSIS) for decades following these investigations—tells a more nuanced story. Drawing upon Bruno Latour’s Actor-Network Theory, this paper considers how film footage provides a unique opportunity to move beyond the available accounts in order to describe ethnographically the various actors that comprise and influence archaeological practice. In doing so, this article argues that analysis of film can provide insights into the reality of archaeological investigations often obscured within written accounts. More than that, however, film also provides an opportunity to revisit the people, places and practices of archaeology to produce historical accounts of archaeological practice that are as colourful as the characters that produced it.

New Macrofossils of the Australian Cycad Bowenia and Their Significance in Reconstructing the Past Morphological Range of the Genus

Premise of research. This study describes a new fossil species of Bowenia and reconsiders known fossil species and their evolutionary significance.Methodology. The fossils we describe here were collected for this study or were available from previous collections made over several decades. The fossils were identified by direct comparisons with extant and fossil species.Pivotal results. A reexamination of known and newly discovered Bowenia macrofossils confirms the presence of at least three fossil species in Australia. A new species, Bowenia johnsonii, is described from the southernmost location, the Early Eocene Lowana Road site in southwest Tasmania. When compared with the two extant species, the three fossil species demonstrate two distinct pinnule morphologies: relatively small with distinct serrations in Bowenia eocenica and Bowenia papillosa and larger pinnules with minute serrations in B. johnsonii. When considered together, the stomata of the extant species are denser and larger than those of the fossil taxa.Conclusions. The cycad genus Bowenia has a restricted extant distribution along the east coast of Queensland but is known more widely within Australia from fossils. The fossil record of Bowenia is important in documenting the past distribution of this genus, and aspects of its pinnule morphology provide insights into its environmental interactions. The possible relationship of the fossil Bowenia species with the Aptian Argentinian genus Eobowenia is considered, along with some fragmentary Australian fossils of probable Bowenia.

Centennial-scale trends in the Southern Annular Mode revealed by hemisphere-wide fire and hydroclimatic trends over the past 2400 years

Millennial-scale latitudinal shifts in the southern westerly winds (SWW) drive changes in Southern Ocean upwelling, leading to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, thereby affecting the global climate and carbon cycle. Our aim here is to understand whether century-scale shifts in the SWW also drive changes in atmospheric CO2 content. We report new multiproxy lake sediment data from southwest Tasmania, Australia, that show centennial-scale changes in vegetation and fire activity over the past 2400 yr. We compare our results with existing data from southern South America and reveal synchronous and in-phase centennial-scale trends in vegetation and fire activity between southwest Tasmania and southern South America over the past 2400 yr. Interannual to centennial-scale rainfall anomalies and fire activity in both these regions are significantly correlated with shifts in the SWW associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM; atmospheric variability of the Southern Hemisphere). Thus, we interpret the centennial-scale trends we have identified as reflecting century-scale SAM-like shifts in the SWW over the past 2400 yr. We identify covariance between our inferred century-scale shifts in the SWW and Antarctic ice core CO2 values, demonstrating that the SWW-CO2 relationship operating at a millennial scale also operates at a centennial scale through the past 2400 yr. Our results indicate a possible westerly-driven modulation of recent increases in global atmospheric CO2 content that could potentially exacerbate current greenhouse gas–related warming.

The Original Lake Pedder, southwest Tasmania: Origin, Age and Evolution of an Australian Nature Conservation Icon

The highly scenic natural Lake Pedder in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area is commonly interpreted as having been impounded behind a natural barrage of glacio-fluvial sediment shed from the adjacent Frankland Range during the Last Glaciation (LGM). However, recent mapping and dating of moraines on the range flanks indicates that only very small glaciers existed there during the LGM and that they generated insufficient sediment for associated glacio-fluvial fan construction at that time to account for formation of the lake. The glaciers that deposited earlier moraines and glacio-fluvial fans that are potentially as old as Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12 also seem insufficient to have produced sufficient sediment. The inundation of Lake Pedder beneath an artificial reservoir following dam construction in the early 1970s currently precludes direct investigation of the valley floor, but new fieldwork around the reservoir perimeter coupled with analysis of historical sources has also failed to reveal evidence supportive of alternative tectonic, colluvial, fluvial or aeolian processes having produced the lake. On the other hand, erosional evidence suggests earlier much more extensive glaciation well beyond the moraines that remain extant, and that the slightly elevated terrain behind which the Lake Pedder was impounded is indeed likely to contain glacigenic sediments, albeit of very much greater antiquity than previously envisaged. Pronounced eastward migration of Lake Pedder through natural lakeshore erosion by wind-generated waves, and the richness of the biota in the natural lake, are both readily explicable given the extended time frame now available. This new understanding compounds the very considerable natural heritage significance of the original Lake Pedder and adds a further geoheritage dimension to the ongoing campaign for its restoration.

Cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al exposure ages of glaciations in the Frankland Range, southwest Tasmania reveal a limited MIS-2 ice advance

Abstract New mapping of the glacial geomorphology coupled with 10Be and 26Al exposure age dating of moraines on the flanks of the Frankland Range in south west Tasmania indicate that glacier extent during MIS-2 was far smaller than during earlier glaciations with the ice cover being confined to only the uppermost cirques of the range. Moraines further down the range flanks, ∼50–150 m lower in altitude than the MIS-2 dated advance, indicate that glaciers were only slightly larger during earlier glaciations and, depending on the interpretation of their exposure ages, may range from MIS 7 to MIS 12. These older moraines are nested inside the maximum ice limits of an even more ancient and extensive glaciation, defined by degraded valley floor moraines and coalescing glacio-fluvial fans that remain undated but appear no younger than MIS 12. Patterns of glacial erosion and moraine deposition on the Frankland Range suggest that the more recent glaciations were increasingly influenced by the erosional morphology initiated by earlier glaciers. Microclimatic differences resulting from this earlier glacial topography were particularly influential determinants of glaciation during MIS 2. These results are consistent with emerging evidence from studies of other ranges in southwest Tasmania.

Pannaria hookeri (lichenised Ascomycetes) - a remarkable new record for Australia

Pannaria hookeri (Borrer ex Sm.) Nyl., a bipolar lichen, is recorded for the first time for Australia (south-west Tasmania) where it grew on alpine limestone outcrops. Its identity was confirmed by mo

Optimality models and the food quest in Pleistocene Tasmania

The application of behavioural ecology models to deep time archaeological sites in Australia is often rendered difficult by the poor resolution of the archaeological record coupled with the imprecision in reconstructing past environments at regional levels. Here we report on a series of high latitude late Pleistocene sites in south-west Tasmania, where the conjunction of cultural activities and long term environmental change have preserved rich deposits in a number of cave sites. These data are used to test the utility of several models within optimal foraging theory. The data indicate the intensive and selective pursuit of two mid-size mammals, the Bennett’s wallaby and the wombat, at the expense of other prey species that were also likely present. Hunting patterns involved the scheduled seasonal use of lowland and upland valley sites underwriting a regional strategy of moving between focal hunting locations to maximise returns. This strategy continued with little change from c. 40,000BP to 15,000BP, providing a stable, predictable and secure food source for people through a period of extreme climatic change. The benefits and limitations of the behavioural ecology models used in this study indicate their utility where the data are sufficiently robust.

The Southern Annular Mode determines interannual and centennial‐scale fire activity in temperate southwest Tasmania, Australia

AbstractSouthern Annular Mode (SAM) is the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere. While it is well established that the current anthropogenic‐driven trend in SAM is responsible for decreased rainfall in southern Australia, its role in driving fire regimes in this region has not been explored. We examined the connection between fire activity and SAM in southwest Tasmania, which lies in the latitudinal band of strongest correlation between SAM and rainfall in the Southern Hemisphere. We reveal that fire activity during a fire season is significantly correlated with the phase of SAM in the preceding year using superposed epoch analysis. We then synthesized new 14 charcoal records from southwest Tasmania spanning the last 1000 years, revealing a tight coupling between fire activity and SAM at centennial timescales, observing a multicentury increase in fire activity over the last 500 years and a spike in fire activity in the 21st century in response to natural and anthropogenic SAM trends.

Economic utility and nutritional value of the Common wombat (Vombatus ursinus): Evaluating Australian Aboriginal hunting and butchery patterns

The Common wombat (Vombatus ursinus) is Australia's largest extant quadruped herbivorous marsupial, yet little is known about its potential economic and dietary value in the archaeological record. In the rich late Pleistocene archaeological faunal assemblages in southwest Tasmania dated to between 35,000 to 13,000BP, the wombat is the second most common prey species after the medium-sized macropod, the Bennett's wallaby (Macropus rufogriseus). Detailed analysis of one of these sites, Kutikina Cave, indicates that the head, pectoral region (including anterior axial elements) and forelimbs of the wombat were frequently selected by people, whilst the ‘meaty’ pelvic girdle and hindlimbs were largely underrepresented. This differs to the patterns observed for the Bennett's wallaby where the large hind region dominates, and the anterior part of the animal is rare in the archaeological assemblage. To investigate this discrepancy in the distribution of wombat body parts, an economic utility and nutritional analysis was conducted and the results compared to the range of wombat skeletal elements from the late Pleistocene faunal assemblage from Kutikina Cave, southwest Tasmania. The results suggest that Tasmanian Aboriginals predominately bought back the meat closer to the brain to the cave and either ignored or consumed the rest of the animal away from the site. Furthermore, a high fat content surrounding the pectoral girdle and vertebral column was identified, which may also have influenced the selection of this region. While evidence of marrow extraction from wombat long bones has been recorded in the faunal assemblage at Kutikina Cave, it was found that these elements do not provide the same quantity or quality available from the Bennett's wallaby. These results have implications for understanding prey selection and butchery strategies of these late Pleistocene hunter-gatherers, especially during the height of the Last Glacial Maximum.

Changes in biomass burning mark the onset of an ENSO-influenced climate regime at 42°S in southwest Tasmania, Australia

We use macroscopic charcoal and sediment geochemistry analysis of two proximal upper montane lakes located at 42°S in southwest Tasmania, Australia, to test the role of the southern hemisphere westerly winds (SWW) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in governing the climate of this sector of the southern mid-to high-latitudes. Inter-annual climate anomalies in the study area are driven by changes in both ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM - an index that describes seasonal to decadal shifts in the SWW), making it an ideal location to test assumptions about the varying influence of the SWW and ENSO, two important components of the global climate system, through time. We find multi-millennial scale trends in fire activity that are remarkably consistent with trends in hydroclimate reconstructed at the same latitude in southern South America, providing empirical support for the notion of zonally symmetric changes in the SWW governing the climate at this latitude in the Southern Hemisphere between 12 and 5 cal ka BP. A transition from multi-millennial scale to sub-millennial scale trends in fire activity occurs after ca 5 cal ka BP in concert with the onset of high frequency and amplitude ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean region. We conclude that the onset of sub-millennial scale trends in ENSO drove changes in fire activity in our study region over the last ca 5 cal ka. Geochemical data reveals divergent local impacts at the two study sites in response to these major climate transitions that are related to local topography and geography.

Topographic and microclimatic impacts on glaciation of the Denison Range, southwest Tasmania

Morphostratigraphic relationships between landforms and sediments, comparative boulder weathering status, and paired 10Be and 26Al exposure ages indicate the occurrence of at least three separate glaciations that are interpreted as dating from MIS 2, 6 and possibly 8. The Rhona Glacier remained at or close to its greatest LGM extent until ∼17.6 ka due to a very favourable micro-climate that resulted from local topography. That these factors were sufficient to over-power relatively subtle zonal temperature shifts that caused significant changes in more exposed Tasmanian glaciers implies a need for caution in correlating between glacier systems in markedly different topographic settings when environmental conditions are only marginally supportive of glaciation. No evidence was detected for any greater ice extent during MIS 3 or MIS 4 than during MIS 2, but much more extensive glaciations occurred during earlier glacial climatic cycles. Reduced local precipitation in parallel with increasing aridity of the Australian continent may account for the progressively diminishing maximum extent of glaciers during the latter part of the Pleistocene, and it would have emphasized the importance of local topography and microclimate for the glaciers of southwest Tasmania.

Coastal erosion reveals a potentially unique Oligocene and possible periglacial sequence at present-day sea level in Port Davey, remote South-West Tasmania

Cut-back of a sea-cliff at Hannant Inlet in remote South-West Tasmania has exposed Oligocene clays buried under Late Pleistocene colluvium from which abundant wood fragments protrude. The two units are separated by a transitional interval defined by mixed Oligocene and Pleistocene microfloras. Microfloras preserved in situ in the clay provide a link between floras in Tasmania and other Southern Hemisphere landmasses following onset of major glaciation in East Antarctica during the Eocene-Oligocene transition (c. 34 Ma). The Late Pleistocene colluvium preserves abundant fossil pollen of the shrub conifer genus Pherosphaera (al. Microstrobos ). Assuming the parent plants had the same upper subalpine-alpine ecology as living Pherosphaera hookeriana , the microflora provides evidence for cold, wet conditions in the Port Davey lowlands during a low sea-level stand. The same data highlight the failure of Pherosphaera to regain its Pleistocene distribution during the Postglacial period. Our data are inconclusive whether Late Pleistocene conditions in Hannant Inlet were periglacial, i.e., the Oligocene sediments were turbated by freeze-thaw processes, or have been reworked by fluvial processes into the Pleistocene colluvium. Nevertheless, the inferred cold-climate is consistent with the former hypothesis. The sequence is sealed under cross-bedded coarse quartzite gravels of presumed Last Glacial Stage age.

Trophic ecology of an abundant predator and its relationship with fisheries

Trophic studies are key components in animal ecology and fisheries research. Although stomach samples are often obtained from fisheries, diet studies that consider the influence of fisheries on dietary results are still lacking. Here, the diet of the draughtboard shark Cephaloscyllium laticeps, an abundant mesopredator in Tasmanian waters, was investigated. Stomach samples were obtained from gillnet and craypot fisheries sourced from 4 regions: central (100% gillnet), east coast (63% gillnet, 37% craypot), northwest (100% gillnet), and southwest Tasmania (100% craypot). Overall, C. laticeps consumed the same prey types in all regions, but the importance of some prey varied significantly between regions. Generalized linear models showed that region was the main factor affecting prey abundance in the diet. Fishing method had some influence on the abundance of some prey (crabs, octopus, and other molluscs (gastropods and bivalves)), but the effect of fishing method on pot-related species such as Jasus edwardsii (lobster) and octopus was not as prevalent as expected. The common occurrence of C. laticeps as a bycatch species and its high consumption of targeted fishery species (lobsters and octopus) indicates that C. laticeps has a strong interaction with the fisheries. Therefore, the relationship between these fishery species and C. laticeps should be considered in food web studies in Tasmanian waters.

Recent environmental change and trace metal pollution in World Heritage Bathurst Harbour, southwest Tasmania, Australia

Bathurst Harbour in World Heritage southwest Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world’s most pristine estuarine systems. At present there is a lack of data on pollution impacts or long-term natural variability in the harbor. A ca. 350-year-old 210Pb-dated sediment core was analysed for trace metals to track pollution impacts from local and long-range sources. Lead and antimony increased from AD 1870 onwards, which likely reflects remote (i.e. mainland Australian and global) atmospheric pollution sources. Variability in the concentrations of copper and zinc closely followed the history of mining activities in western Tasmania, which began in the AD 1880s. Tin was generally low throughout the core, except for a large peak in AD 1989 ± 0.5 years, which may be a consequence of input from a local small-scale alluvial tin mine. Changes in diatom assemblages were also investigated. The diatom flora was composed mostly of planktonic freshwater and benthic brackish-marine species, consistent with stratified estuarine conditions. Since mining began, however, an overall decrease in the proportion of planktonic to benthic taxa occurred, with the exception of two distinct peaks in the twentieth century that coincided with periods of high rainfall. Despite the region’s remoteness, trace metal analyses revealed evidence of atmospheric pollution from Tasmanian and possibly longer-range mining activities. This, together with recent low rainfall, appears to have contributed to altering the diatom assemblages in one of the most pristine temperate estuaries in the world.

Contrasting fire responses to climate and management: insights from two Australian ecosystems

This study explores effects of climate change and fuel management on unplanned fire activity in ecosystems representing contrasting extremes of the moisture availability spectrum (mesic and arid). Simulation modelling examined unplanned fire activity (fire incidence and area burned, and the area burned by large fires) for alternate climate scenarios and prescribed burning levels in: (i) a cool, moist temperate forest and wet moorland ecosystem in south-west Tasmania (mesic); and (ii) a spinifex and mulga ecosystem in central Australia (arid). Contemporary fire activity in these case study systems is limited, respectively, by fuel availability and fuel amount. For future climates, unplanned fire incidence and area burned increased in the mesic landscape, but decreased in the arid landscape in accordance with predictions based on these limiting factors. Area burned by large fires (greater than the 95th percentile of historical, unplanned fire size) increased with future climates in the mesic landscape. Simulated prescribed burning was more effective in reducing unplanned fire activity in the mesic landscape. However, the inhibitory effects of prescribed burning are predicted to be outweighed by climate change in the mesic landscape, whereas in the arid landscape prescribed burning reinforced a predicted decline in fire under climate change. The potentially contrasting direction of future changes to fire will have fundamentally different consequences for biodiversity in these contrasting ecosystems, and these will need to be accommodated through contrasting, innovative management solutions.

Extinct habitat, extant species: lessons learned from conservation recovery actions for the Pedder galaxias (Galaxias pedderensis) in south-west Tasmania, Australia

The Pedder galaxias (Galaxias pedderensis) from Lake Pedder, Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world’s most threatened freshwater fish. The flooding of Lake Pedder in 1972 for hydroelectric power generation caused a major change to the ecosystem that initiated an irreversible decline in the Pedder galaxias within its natural range. The flooding inundated another headwater catchment and native and introduced fish from this catchment colonised the impoundment. Numbers of the Pedder galaxias declined markedly as the impoundment matured and as colonising fish proliferated. Surveys in the 1980s confirmed the parlous state of the population, highlighting the need for conservation intervention. Several urgent conservation actions were undertaken to save the species from extinction. Translocation was considered the most important recovery action, given the critically low numbers in the wild. The species is now extinct from its natural range and is known from only two translocated populations. The conservation program, and specifically the translocation recovery action, saved the Pedder galaxias from extinction. The conservation management was extremely challenging since rapidly declining fish numbers needed timely and critical decisions to underpin the future of the fish. Recommendations are provided arising from this case study to guide conservation of freshwater fish in similar circumstances.

Contracting Tasmanian montane grasslands within a forest matrix is consistent with cessation of Aboriginal fire management

The persistence of treeless grasslands and sedgelands within a matrix of eucalypt and rainforest vegetation in the montane plateaux of northern Tasmania has long puzzled ecologists. Historical sources suggest that Tasmanian Aborigines were burning these treeless patches and models seeking to explain their maintenance generally include fire, soil properties and Aboriginal landscape burning. We aimed to provide a new historical perspective of the dynamics of the vegetation mosaics of Surrey Hills and Paradise Plains in north-west and north-east Tasmania, respectively, and used vegetation surveys and soil sampling to explore the role of vegetation and soils in these dynamics. Sequences of historical maps (1832 and 1903) and aerial photography showed that many treeless patches have persisted in the landscape since European settlement and that forests have rapidly expanded into the treeless patches since the early 1950s. Stand structure and floristic data described an expanding forest dominated by Leptospermum, which is consistent with vegetation succession models for the region. Soils under expanding forest boundaries did not have higher soil nitrogen or phosphorus than those under stable boundaries, signalling a lack of edaphic limitation to forest expansion. The magnitude of forest expansion at Paradise Plains (granite), Surrey Hills (basalt) and south-west Tasmania (quartzite) appears to follow a nutrient availability gradient and this hypothesis is backed by differences in soil phosphorus capital between the three systems. Given that existing vegetation boundaries in northern Tasmania do not coincide with soil nutrient gradients, we suggest that treeless vegetation was maintained by Aboriginal landscape burning and that the recent contraction of treeless vegetation is related to the breakdown of these fire regimes following European settlement. The observed rates of forest expansion could result in a substantial loss of these grasslands if sustained through this century and therefore our work supports the continuation of prescribed burning to maintain this high conservation value ecosystem.