South Pacific Convergence Zone Research Articles

Contrasting influence of the 1997 and 2015 El Niño on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Role of the Southern Hemisphere

This study provides comprehensive analysis on the contrasting effects caused by the 1997 and 2015 historical El Niño events linked with the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The presence of strong southeast-northwest oriented cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies during 1997, that spatially extended from southwest Pacific to Southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) in comparison to the 2015 event is the robust feature. Evidently, these anomalies are closely related to interaction between cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over South Pacific Convergence Zone (south Australia). During 2015, the conjunction of Modoki II and classical El Niño triggered an asymmetrical equatorial circulation throughout the Indo-western Pacific (IWP) and thereby stimulated the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) through troposphere and stratospheric pathway mechanism. In addition, in 2015, SAM impacted the Indian Ocean, which intern affected ISM rainfall. Positive SAM associated with westward shift of anticyclone over south of Australia alters the circulation by inducing westerly winds over the South Indian Ocean, thereby suppressing Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and inducing drought conditions over India during 2015. Moreover, the AUS index, an indicator for IOD strength in boreal summer, is a bridging factor prevalent over mid-latitude regions in the southern hemisphere. Results from this study indicate the complex interaction of southern hemisphere atmospheric flow and its role in modulating the Indian Ocean region thereby ISM rainfall. A better understanding of these underlying mechanism can significantly enhance the predictive skills and projections of monsoon variability and extremes.

Differences in Thunderstorms' Ice Microphysics Between the Amazon and Central Africa Inferred From Spaceborne Passive Microwave and Radar Observations

AbstractThis study examines the differences related to microphysical properties of ice in thunderstorms over the Amazon and Congo Basin using the Precipitation Feature (PF) data sets derived from passive microwave and radar observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Global Precipitation Mission Core Satellites. Analysis reveals that Amazon thunderstorms are likely composed of ice crystals smaller but more numerous than those in the Congo Basin, resulting in half as many flashes per PF on average in the Amazon, for similar Ice Water Content (IWC) or Area of 30 dBZ at −10°C (Acharge). The increase of the flash count following an increase of the IWC (Acharge) is only 72% (61%) as effective in the Amazon as it would be in the Congo Basin area. PFs with similar 30 dBZ radar echo top heights exhibit lower Brightness Temperatures (TBs) in the 85/89, 165, and 183 GHz frequencies over the Amazon, indicating more numerous smaller ice particles compared to those over the Congo Basin, which tend to show colder TBs at 37 GHz, possibly due to more numerous large graupel or hail particles. Comparisons of TBs in PFs with similar 30 dBZ echo top temperature between the Amazon and 3 × 3º global grids show that the median TB in Amazon is higher than that in most oceanic areas but is comparable to areas having high oceanic lightning activity (e.g., South Pacific Convergence Zone). It suggests that systems in the Amazon have similarities with maritime precipitation systems, yet with distinct characteristics indicative of land systems.

Wave‐Convection Interactions Amplify Convective Parameterization Biases in the South Pacific Convergence Zone

AbstractClimate models have long‐standing difficulties simulating the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and its variability. For example, the default Zhang‐McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) produces too much light precipitation and too little heavy precipitation in the SPCZ, with this bias toward light precipitation even more pronounced in the SPCZ than in the tropics as a whole. Here, we show that implementing a recently developed convection scheme in the CAM5 yields significant improvements in the simulated SPCZ during austral summer and discuss the reasons behind these improvements. In addition to intensifying both mean rainfall and its variability in the SPCZ, the new scheme produces a larger heavy rainfall fraction that is more consistent with observations and state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses. This shift toward heavier, more variable rainfall increases both the magnitude and altitude of diabatic heating associated with convective precipitation, intensifying lower tropospheric convergence and increasing the influence of convection on the upper‐level circulation. Increased diabatic production of potential vorticity in the upper troposphere intensifies the distortion effect exerted by convection on transient Rossby waves that pass through the SPCZ. Weaker distortion effects in simulations using the ZM scheme allow waves to propagate continuously through the region rather than dissipating locally, further reducing updrafts and weakening convection in the SPCZ. Our results outline a dynamical framework for evaluating model representations of tropical–extratropical interactions within the SPCZ and clarify why convective parameterizations that produce “top‐heavy” profiles of deep convective heating better represent the SPCZ and its variability.

Last Deglacial Environmental Change in the Tropical South Pacific From Tahiti Corals

AbstractOn glacial‐interglacial time scales, changes in the Earth's orbital configuration control climate seasonality and mean conditions. Tropical coral skeletons can be sampled at a sufficient resolution to reconstruct past seasonality. Here, last deglacial Porites skeletons from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 310 to Tahiti are investigated and, supported by a modern calibration, monthly resolved time series in geochemical proxies (Sr/Ca, δ18O, δ13C) are constructed. For most of the deglaciation, Sr/Ca seasonality was similar to modern (0.139 ± 0.010 mmol mol−1; 2.8 ± 0.2°C) reflecting the small change in insolation seasonality. However, during the Younger Dryas, high values in Sr/Ca seasonality (0.171 ± 0.017 mmol mol−1; 3.4 ± 0.3°C) suggest a reduced mixed layer depth and enhanced influence of the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre due to South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) inactivity. Furthermore, high amplitudes in Younger Dryas skeletal δ18O (0.40 ± 0.22 ‰) and δ13C (0.86 ± 0.22 ‰) seasonality compared to modern (δ18O = 0.29 ± 0.08 ‰; δ13C = 0.27 ± 0.08 ‰) point to elevated winter‐summer discrepancies in rainfall and runoff. Mean coral Sr/Ca variability suggests an influence of Northern Hemisphere climate events, such as the Younger Dryas cooling (+0.134 ± 0.012 mmol mol−1;−2.6 ± 0.2°C), or the Bølling–Allerød warming (+0.032 ± 0.040 mmol mol−1; −0.6 ± 0.4°C). Deglacial mean coral Δδ18O (δ18Oseawater contribution to skeletal δ18O), corrected for the ice volume effect, was elevated pointing to more saline, thus dryer conditions, likely due to a northward migration of the SPCZ. Seasonal cycles in coral δ13C were likely caused by variations in linear extension rates that were reduced during the last deglaciation (1.00 ± 0.6 cm year−1) compared to today (1.6 ± 0.3 cm year−1).

Mid‐Holocene rainfall seasonality and ENSO dynamics over the south‐western Pacific

AbstractEl Niño–Southern Oscillation dynamics affect global weather patterns, with regionally diverse hydrological responses posing critical societal challenges. The lack of seasonally resolved hydrological proxy reconstructions beyond the observational era limits our understanding of boundary conditions that drive and/or adjust El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Detailed reconstructions of past El Niño–Southern Oscillation dynamics can help modelling efforts, highlight impacts on disparate ecosystems and link to extreme events that affect populations from the tropics to high latitudes. Here, mid‐Holocene El Niño–Southern Oscillation and hydrological changes are reconstructed in the south‐west Pacific using a stalagmite from Niue Island, which represents the period 6.4–5.4 ka BP. Stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios, trace elements and greyscale data from a U/Th‐dated and layer counted stalagmite profile are combined to infer changes in local hydrology at sub‐annual to multi‐decadal timescales. Principal component analysis reveals seasonal‐scale hydrological changes expressed as variations in stalagmite growth patterns and geochemical characteristics. Higher levels of host rock‐derived elements (Sr/Ca and U/Ca) and higher δ18O and δ13C values are observed in dark, dense calcite laminae deposited during the dry season, whereas during the wet season, higher concentrations of soil‐derived elements (Zn/Ca and Mn/Ca) and lower δ18O and δ13C values are recorded in pale, porous calcite laminae. The multi‐proxy record from Niue shows seasonal cycles associated with hydrological changes controlled by the positioning and strength of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Wavelet analysis of the greyscale record reveals that El Niño–Southern Oscillation was continuously active during the mid‐Holocene, with two weaker intervals at 6–5.9 and 5.6–5.5 ka BP. El Niño–Southern Oscillation especially affects dry season rainfall dynamics, with increased cyclone activity that reduces hydrological seasonality during El Niño years.

Performance and process-based evaluation of the BARPA-R Australasian regional climate model version 1

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is changing the Earth system processes that control the characteristics of natural hazards both globally and across Australia. Model projections of hazards under future climate change are necessary for effective adaptation. This paper presents BARPA-R (the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia), a regional climate model designed to downscale climate projections over the Australasian region with the purpose of investigating future hazards. BARPA-R, a limited-area model, has a 17 km horizontal grid spacing and makes use of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) atmospheric model and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. To establish credibility and in compliance with the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) experiment design, the BARPA-R framework has been used to downscale ERA5 reanalysis. Here, an assessment of this evaluation experiment is provided. Performance-based evaluation results are benchmarked against ERA5, with comparable performance between the free-running BARPA-R simulations and observationally constrained reanalysis interpreted as a good result. First, an examination of BARPA-R's representation of Australia's surface air temperature, precipitation, and 10 m winds finds good performance overall, with biases including a 1 ∘C cold bias in daily maximum temperatures, reduced diurnal temperature range, and wet biases up to 25 mm per month in inland Australia. Recent trends in daily maximum temperatures are consistent with observational products, while trends in minimum temperatures show overestimated warming and trends in precipitation show underestimated wetting in northern Australia. Precipitation and temperature teleconnections are effectively represented in BARPA-R when present in the driving boundary conditions, while 10 m winds are improved over ERA5 in six out of eight of the Australian regions considered. Secondly, the paper considers the representation of large-scale atmospheric circulation features and weather systems. While generally well represented, convection-related features such as tropical cyclones, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the Northwest Cloudband, and the monsoon westerlies show more divergence from observations and internal interannual variability than mid-latitude phenomena such as the westerly jets and extratropical cyclones. Having simulated a realistic Australasian climate, the BARPA-R framework will be used to downscale two climate change scenarios from seven CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs).

Sub-daily rainfall patterns in the mountainous regions of the Island of Tahiti: Insights from a one-year rain gauge network expansion

Study regionThe Island of Tahiti in French Polynesia (17.5°S,149.5°W), with a focus on the mountainous regions of the island interior. Study focusThe high topography of Tahiti creates an obstacle for wet air masses traveling along the surface of the South Tropical Pacific Ocean, which forces air flow uplift and triggers orographic rainfall. Although the main physical processes behind orographic rain enhancement on tropical islands were identified, the ways they shape Tahitian rain fields are still not fully understood, particularly due to a lack of observations. To address the limitations posed by this shortage of rain data, this study describes the temporary expansion of the rain gauge network of Tahiti towards the mountainous island interior, and uses the resultant dataset to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of orographic rainfall at sub-daily resolution. New hydrological insights for the regionThe analysis of the rain gauge observations on daily and shorter time-scales leads to the identification of three main types of rainfall patterns: (1) a Dry Season Trade Winds type linked to a persistent Trade Winds Inversion (TWI) and characterized by moderate orographic rainfall in windward slopes, dry conditions in most leeward areas, and localized mid-afternoon showers in the mountains downwind of the main summit of the island; (2) a Transition Season Trade Winds type linked to atmospheric disturbances weakening the TWI, and characterized by intense orographic rainfall in windward slopes and mountains, and frequent showers in leeward areas by overshoot of the main crest; and (3) a SPCZ-related type occurring when the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) crosses Tahiti during the wet season, and characterized by intense and widespread rainfall throughout the island with clear diurnal cycle and peak intensities recorded in the mid-afternoon.

Incorporating the Effect of Large‐Scale Vertical Motion on Convection Through Convective Mass Flux Adjustment in E3SMv2

AbstractRecent observational studies suggest that the large‐scale dynamical forcing (vertical motion) plays important roles in deep convection development. In this study we propose a convective mass flux adjustment (MAdj) approach to represent the dynamical effects of large‐scale vertical motion on convection in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). With MAdj, convection is enhanced (suppressed) when there is large‐scale ascending (descending) motion at the planetary boundary layer top. The coupling of convection with large‐scale circulation significantly improves the simulation of climate variability in E3SMv2 across multiple scales from the diurnal cycle, convectively coupled equatorial waves, to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). The standard E3SMv2 tends to simulate overly weak diurnal amplitude of precipitation and overly weak variance of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin and westward inertio‐gravity (WIG) waves. It also fails to simulate the essential characteristics of the MJO: continuous eastward propagation. With MAdj, the amplitude of diurnal cycle of precipitation is systematically increased and its probability density distribution is much closer to observations. The MAdj can also simulate more realistic eastward propagation of the MJO and much stronger convectively coupled Kelvin and WIG waves. Moreover, the MAdj approach slightly improves the climatology simulations in precipitation, cloud, radiation, circulation, temperature, and moisture fields, with overall root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of major climatological fields reduced by about 2%. The MAdj approach suppresses excessive grid‐scale precipitation, reducing precipitation wet biases over South China Sea, Philippine Sea, Himalayas, and South Pacific Convergence Zone in western Pacific in summer.

Towards improved seasonal rainfall prediction in the tropical Pacific Islands

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major influence on interannual variability of rainfall in stations in the tropical southwest Pacific. Predictions of seasonal rainfall, especially a season or two ahead, are of great value to these countries. This paper therefore examines the correlations over ~ 60 years between seasonal rainfall and 8 ENSO indicators at 16 island stations, allowing for lead times. The results show the influence on rainfall of the position and movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) during ENSO events, and that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4), and the warm water volume in the eastern Pacific (WWV1) have longer lead times compared to most other ENSO indicators. These indicators can therefore be used with confidence in SCOPIC, a widely used statistical tool for prediction of seasonal rainfall. (As global climate models generally have systematic errors in their depiction of the SPCZ, they cannot yet be used directly to reliably predict seasonal rainfall in this region.) For several sites near the SPCZ, we find that a moderately good forecast of rainfall in both spring and summer can be made from indicators measured in June–July (i.e., 3–6 months in advance.)

Salinity–oxygen isotope relationship during an El Niño (2014–2015) in the southwestern Pacific and comparisons with GEOSECS data (La Niña, 1973–1974)

Salinity–oxygen isotope (δ18Osw) relationships in sea surface waters are fundamental to the quantitative interpretation of foraminiferal and coral δ18O records in the analyses of past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation. However, available δ18Osw data for the western South Pacific are limited to the Geochemical Ocean Sections Study (GEOSECS) data, which were collected during the 1973–1974 La Niña event. Because ocean–atmospheric conditions in the western Pacific change dynamically with La Niña and El Niño events, sample-biased western South Pacific δ18Osw data may not represent the regional mean salinity–δ18Osw relationship. Herein, we present 83 new paired salinity and δ18Osw data from the western Pacific collected during the 2014–2015 El Niño event. These new data indicate that all three regions (40°–20°N, 20°N–30°S, and 30°–66°S) exhibited linear relationships between δ18Osw and salinity. However, each regional linear regression was statistically different from those of the GEOSECS data, indicating that inter-annual ENSO variability impacts the salinity–δ18Osw relationship over a wide area of the western Pacific. The ocean and atmospheric states in the 20°N–30°S region varied dynamically owing to ENSO, which caused distinct differences between the δ18Osw values for 2014–2015 and 1973–1974 datasets. One of the differences was the appearance of distinctly lighter δ18Osw values at 5°–10°N, reflecting a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) under typical El Niño conditions. Water masses with heavy δ18Osw values were also observed in the subtropical South Pacific (near ∼30°S), which can be attributed to enhanced evaporation, increased equilibrium fractionation, and increased kinetic effects. This δ18Osw-enriched subtropical water mass advected toward the equator, which produced relatively heavier δ18Osw values in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) (8°–20°S), where high precipitation may also have been a factor causing the decoupling of salinity and δ18Osw. This study shows that salinity and δ18Osw are less correlated in the SPCZ region and that the salinity-based coral δ18Osw interpretations in this region may potentially be uncertain. Therefore, to determine the extent to which ENSO-related salinity variability can be quantitatively reconstructed from δ18O records of corals in the SPCZ, more salinity and δ18Osw data during La Niña and El Niño events in the SPCZ are needed and the temporal variability of the regression slopes and the correlation between salinity and δ18Osw should be evaluated.

Variability and long‐term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review

AbstractThe Australian monsoon delivers seasonal rain across a vast area of the continent stretching from the far northern tropics to the semi‐arid regions. This article provides a review of advances in Australian monsoon rainfall (AUMR) research and a supporting analysis of AUMR variability, observed trends, and future projections. AUMR displays a high degree of interannual variability with a standard deviation of approximately 34% of the mean. AUMR variability is mostly driven by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and north of Australia also play a role. Decadal AUMR variability is strongly linked to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), partially through the IPO's impact on the strength and position of the Pacific Walker Circulation and the South Pacific Convergence Zone. AUMR exhibits a century‐long positive trend, which is large (approximately 20 mm per decade) and statistically significant over northwest Australia. The cause of the observed trend is still debated. Future changes in AUMR over the next century remain uncertain due to low climate model agreement on the sign of change. Recommendations to improve the understanding of AUMR and confidence in AUMR projections are provided. This includes improving the representation of atmospheric convective processes in models, further explaining the mechanisms responsible for AUMR variability and change. Clarifying the mechanisms of AUMR variability and change would aid with creating more sustainable future agricultural systems by increasing the reliability of predictions and projections.This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

Internal Precipitation and Kinematic Structure of the South Pacific Convergence Zone

Internal Precipitation and Kinematic Structure of the South Pacific Convergence Zone

Distinct MJOs Under the Two Types of La Niña

AbstractEl Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the interannual variations of Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO)—the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability. Previous studies have revealed more about the impacts of the diversified El Niño on MJO, but less about those of the La Niña diversity. Using observations and global climate model experiments, this study demonstrates that MJO undergoes distinct variations and Pacific teleconnections when La Niña varies between eastern‐Pacific (EP) and central‐Pacific (CP) types. Compared to the CP La Niña, MJO under the EP La Niña is more energetic over the southern Maritime Continent–South Pacific Convergence Zone and can propagate faster and further with a broader zonal circulation scale over the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. The stronger and faster MJO under the EP La Niña is associated with more vigorous ascending motions, higher moisture content and stronger moistening in the lower‐level atmosphere ahead of the MJO deep convection. Although the meridional moisture advection exists as the fundamental mechanism of MJO eastward propagation, the distinct MJO under the two types of La Niña primarily results from the different lower‐tropospheric moistening due to the zonal moisture advection. Both the background mean and anomalous zonal winds and moisture gradients are stronger under the EP La Niña, thereby causing a remarkable invigoration effect of zonally advective moistening. Diverse extratropical circulation responses of distinct MJOs are also discussed. These results should improve our understanding of the whole ENSO diversity paradigm that influences MJO and teleconnections.

Weather‐type‐conditioned calibration of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation over the South Pacific Convergence Zone

AbstractThe South Pacific region is an area affected by characteristic precipitation patterns undergoing extreme events such as tropical cyclones and droughts. First, a daily weather typing of precipitation is presented, based on principal component analysis and k‐means clustering using precipitation and atmospheric circulation variables derived from sea‐level pressure and wind reanalysis fields. As a result, five weather types (WTs) are presented, able to capture distinct precipitation spatiotemporal patterns, interpretable in terms of salient regional climate features. Second, we undertake the calibration of the TRMM precipitation product using a set of rain gauge stations as reference and scaling and empirical quantile mapping (eQM) as calibration techniques. Furthermore, we build upon the weather‐type classification to compare the results with a WT‐conditioned calibration approach. Overall, our results underpin the need of adjusting the existing TRMM biases, mostly relevant for the upper tail of their distribution, and advocate the use of correction techniques able to deal with quantile‐dependent biases—such as eQM—instead of a simple scaling, in order to obtain a more realistic representation of extreme precipitation events. The conditioning has shown only a marginal added value over the simple approach, although this minor improvement may prove relevant for applications focused on extreme event analysis. Furthermore, the weather types created can be applied to a wide variety of conditioned analyses in this region.

Satellite-Observed Time and Length Scales of Global Sea Surface Salinity Variability: A Comparison of Three Satellite Missions

Sea surface salinity (SSS) observations from Aquarius, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite missions are compared to characterize the time and length scales of SSS variability globally. Overall, there is general agreement between the global patterns of the time and length scales of SSS variability estimated from the three satellite missions. The temporal scales of SSS variability vary from more than 90 days in the tropics to ~15 days in the Southern Ocean. The very short temporal scales (close to the Nyquist period) in some parts of the ocean are probably due to the high level of noise in the satellite data or the high noise-to-signal ratio. The longest temporal scales are observed along the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and in the central and western tropical Pacific. These areas are also related to the strongest ENSO-related signal in SSS. The processes governing the SSS variability and distribution are also non-stationary, such that the scales determined over different observation periods may differ. Dominant spatial scales of SSS variability are generally the longest (up to 150 km) in the tropics and the shortest (<60 km) in the subpolar regions. The distribution of the dominant spatial scales is not simply latitudinal but exhibits a more complex spatial pattern. In the tropics, there is slight east-west and inter-hemispheric asymmetry observed in the Pacific but absent in the other two oceans. The analysis also reveals that the length scales of SSS variability are highly anisotropic in the tropics (the zonal scales are generally shorter than the meridional ones) and become more isotropic towards higher latitudes. Regional differences in the estimates of the scales from the three satellite SSS datasets may arise due to differences in the observation duration, spatial resolution and/or different level of noise.

Subseasonal precipitation forecasts of opportunity over central southwest Asia

Abstract. Subseasonal forecasts of opportunity (SFOs) for precipitation over southwest Asia during January–March at lead times of 3–6 weeks are identified using elevated expected forecast skill from a linear inverse model (LIM), an empirical dynamical model that uses statistical relationships to infer the predictable dynamics of a system. The expected forecast skill from this LIM, which is based on the atmospheric circulation, tropical outgoing longwave radiation, and sea surface temperatures, captures the predictability associated with many relevant signals as opposed to just one. Two modes of variability, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which themselves are predictable because of their slow variations, are related to southwest Asia precipitation SFOs. Strong El Niño events, as observed in 1983, 1998, and 2016, significantly increase the likelihood by up to 3-fold of an SFO 3–4 and 5–6 weeks in advance. Strong La Niña events, as observed in 1989, 1999, 2000, also significantly increase the likelihood of an SFO at those same lead times. High-amplitude MJO events in phases 2–4 and 6–8 of greater than one standardized departure also significantly increase the likelihood of an SFO 3–4 weeks in advance. Predictable atmospheric circulation patterns preceding anomalously wet periods indicate a role for enhanced tropical convection in the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) region, while suppressed convection is observed preceding predictable dry periods. Anomalous heating in this region is found to distinguish wet and dry periods during both El Niño and La Niña conditions, although the atmospheric circulation response to the heating differs between each ENSO phase.

Storylines of South Pacific Convergence Zone Changes in a Warmer World

Abstract The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is evaluated in simulations of historical climate from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6) models, showing a modest improvement in the simulation of South Pacific precipitation (spatial pattern and mean bias) in CMIP6 models but little change in the overly zonal position of the SPCZ compared with CMIP5 models. A set of models that simulate a reasonable SPCZ are selected from both ensembles, and future projections under high emissions (RCP8.5 and SSP5–8.5) scenarios are examined. The multimodel mean projected change in SPCZ precipitation and position is small, but this multimodel mean response obscures a wide range of future projections from individual models. To investigate the full range of future projections a storyline approach is adopted, focusing on groups of models that simulate a northward-shifted SPCZ, a southward-shifted SPCZ, or little change in SPCZ position. The northward-shifted SPCZ group also exhibit large increases in precipitation in the equatorial Pacific, while the southward-shifted SPCZ group exhibit smaller increases in equatorial precipitation but greater increases within the SPCZ region. A moisture budget decomposition confirms the findings of previous studies: that changes in the mean circulation dynamics are the primary source of uncertainty for projected changes in precipitation in the SPCZ region. While uncertainty remains in SPCZ projections, partly due to uncertain patterns of sea surface temperature change and systematic coupled model biases, it may be worthwhile to consider the range of plausible SPCZ projections captured by this storyline approach for adaptation and planning in the South Pacific region. Significance Statement The South Pacific convergence zone is a band of intense rainfall that influences the weather and climate of many Pacific Island communities. Future changes in the SPCZ will therefore impact these communities. We examine climate model representations of future climate to find out how the SPCZ might change in a warmer world. While the models disagree on future changes in the SPCZ, we suggest that it may be useful to consider groups of models with common “storylines” of future change. The changes in the position of the SPCZ in a warmer world correlate strongly to the amount of rainfall change locally. Some models suggest a northward movement of the SPCZ, while others suggest a southward movement. Consideration of the full range of possible future behavior of the SPCZ is needed to better prepare for the impacts of a warmer climate.

Decadal variability in the austral summer precipitation over the Central Andes: Observations and the empirical‐statistical downscaling model

AbstractThe decadal variability in summer precipitation over the Central Andes (10°–30°S) is investigated from 1921 to 2010 using low‐pass filtered time series of the central and eastern El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific (C and E) indices, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) index, the Atlantic SST indices, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and ERA‐20C reanalysis. Additionally, an empirical‐statistical downscaling (ESD) model was built. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis shows that the first leading mode of precipitation (RPC1) represents 38.2% of the total decadal variance. RPC2, RCP3, and RPC4 represent 18.8, 12.8, and 9.7% of the total decadal variance, respectively. Furthermore, RPC1 features highest loadings over most of the region. RPC2 features a dipole of highest loadings over the southernmost Bolivian Altiplano and lowest loadings over the northwestern Argentinian Andes. Conversely, RPC3 presents highest loadings over the eastern‐central Bolivian Altiplano and northwestern Argentinian Andes. RPC4 features highest loadings over the southern Bolivian Andes. RPC1 and RPC3 wet summers are associated with moisture transport from the Amazon basin, but RPC1 features the strengthening upper‐level Bolivian high‐Nordeste low system over South America. Conversely, RPC2 and RPC4 wet summers are associated with local processes induced by southward displacement of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Indian Ocean, respectively. According to the ESD model, the decadal variability in the central and eastern Pacific (CP and EP) and Atlantic Ocean reproduces the decadal component of the DJF precipitation over most of the Central Andes.

Sea Surface Salinity Changes in Response to El Niño–like SST Warming and Relevant Ocean Dynamics in the Tropical Pacific under the CMIP6 Abrupt-4XCO2 Scenario

Abstract Based on the abrupt-4XCO2 scenario in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this study investigates the response of the rainfall changes to El Niño–like SST warming and the role of ocean dynamical processes in the salinity changes in the tropical Pacific. The results show that the Walker circulation weakening and eastward shift, related to El Niño–like SST warming, dominates the zonal precipitation change. Precipitation decreases (increases) in the Maritime Continent (the equatorial Pacific), partly offsetting the effect of specific humidity. At the same time, the El Niño–like warming triggers convergence of meridional winds, which leads to a precipitation increase in the equatorial Pacific and a decrease in the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone, following the “warmer-get-wetter” mechanism. Unlike the spatial pattern of precipitation changes, the sea surface salinity changes become fresher in the tropical western Pacific, related to the precipitation and the mean horizontal advection. The precipitation increase leads to negative salinity anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific. The westward climatological zonal currents transport the negative salinity anomalies westward. The meridional currents advect the salinity anomalies to both sides of the equator, partly offsetting the contribution of the freshwater flux on the salinity change. In addition, shallower mixed layer depth and weakening upwelling bring less high-salinity water to the surface and impact salinity redistribution through the vertical process in the equatorial regions.

Western and Central Tropical Pacific Rainfall Response to Climate Change: Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature Patterns

Abstract Rainfall projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models are strongly tied to projected sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns through the “warmer-gets-wetter” mechanism. While these models consistently project an enhanced equatorial warming, they, however, indicate much more uncertain changes in zonal SST gradients. That translates into large uncertainties on rainfall projections. Here, we force an atmospheric model with synthetic SSTs whose zonal SST gradient changes span the range of CMIP5 uncertainties in the presence and in the absence of the robust equatorially enhanced warming. Our results confirm that projected rainfall changes are dominated by the effect of circulation changes, which are tied to SST through the “warmer-gets-wetter” mechanism. We show that SPCZ rainfall changes are entirely driven by the uncertain zonal SST gradient changes. The western equatorial Pacific rainfall increase is largely controlled by the robust enhanced equatorial warming for modest zonal SST gradient changes. However, for larger values, the effect of the zonal SST gradient change on rainfall projections becomes dominant due to nonlinear interactions with the enhanced equatorial warming. Overall, our study demonstrates that uncertainties in the zonal SST gradient changes strongly contribute to uncertainties in rainfall projections over both the South Pacific convergence zone and western equatorial Pacific. It is thus critical to reduce these uncertainties to produce more robust precipitation estimates.