South Nigeria Research Articles

Nesting the SIRV model with NAR, LSTM and statistical methods to fit and predict COVID-19 epidemic trend in Africa

ObjectiveCompared with other regions in the world, the transmission characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Africa are more obvious, has a unique transmission mode in this region; At the same time, the data related to the COVID-19 epidemic in Africa is characterized by low data quality and incomplete data coverage, which makes the prediction method of COVID-19 epidemic suitable for other regions unable to achieve good results in Africa. In order to solve the above problems, this paper proposes a prediction method that nests the in-depth learning method in the mechanism model. From the experimental results, it can better solve the above problems and better adapt to the transmission characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in African countries.MethodsBased on the SIRV model, the COVID-19 transmission rate and trend from September 2021 to January 2022 of the top 15 African countries (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia, Algeria, Botswana, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Uganda, and Ghana) in the accumulative number of COVID-19 confirmed cases was fitted by using the data from Worldometer. Non-autoregressive (NAR), Long-short term memory (LSTM), Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, Gaussian and polynomial functions were used to predict the transmission rate β in the next 7, 14, and 21 days. Then, the predicted transmission rate βs were substituted into the SIRV model to predict the number of the COVID-19 active cases. The error analysis was conducted using root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).ResultsThe fitting curves of the 7, 14, and 21 days were consistent with and higher than the original curves of daily active cases (DAC). The MAPE between the fitted and original 7-day DAC was only 1.15% and increased with the longer of predict days. Both the predicted β and DAC of the next 7, 14, and 21 days by NAR and LSTM nested models were closer to the real ones than other three ones. The minimum RMSEs for the predicted number of COVID-19 active cases in the next 7, 14, and 21 days were 12,974, 14,152, and 12,211 people, respectively when the order of magnitude for was 106, with the minimum MAPE being 1.79%, 1.97%, and 1.64%, respectively.ConclusionNesting the SIRV model with NAR, LSTM, ARIMA methods etc. through functionalizing β respectively could obtain more accurate fitting and predicting results than these models/methods alone for the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Africa in which nesting with NAR had the highest accuracy for the 14-day and 21-day predictions. The nested model was of high significance for early understanding of the COVID-19 disease burden and preparedness for the response.

Studies on the bioactive elements and nutrients distribution in surface sediments of Cross River Estuary, Calabar River and Great Kwa River, South - South Nigeria

Studies on the bioactive elements and nutrients distribution in surface sediments of Cross River Estuary, Calabar River and Great Kwa River, South - South Nigeria

New Intellectual Capital Delivery Model in Lower Developing Countries

Knowledge and intellectual capital are the two major resources that influence the setting up of higher education in developed and developing countries. The rising digital era has been crucial in transitioning from heavy dependence on physical assets such as labor to intangible assets such as intellectual capital with the help of digital and social media platforms. Intellectual capital can be considered an essential aspect of the knowledge economy, and together with innovation, they are the mediating factor in the economic growth of most countries. This is because they drive companies to have a competitive advantage in the market and offer talents to multiple industries, significantly increasing their revenue and value. In essence, the idea of intellectual capital has spread around the globe and especially in developing countries where the number of students has been reported in the past decades. However, developing countries still face a challenge in acquiring intellectual capital because of the underlying factors, including poverty and gender inequalities. With the help of a literature review, this report analyses the new intellectual capital delivery model in lower developing countries such as South Africa and Nigeria. The intellectual capital delivery in education is currently delivered through various online education platforms and media.

Studies on the bioactive elements and nutrients distribution in surface sediments of Cross River Estuary, Calabar River and Great Kwa River, South South Nigeria

Studies on the bioactive elements and nutrients distribution in surface sediments of Cross River Estuary, Calabar River and Great Kwa River, South South Nigeria

The impact of international portfolio investment on economic growth: the case of selected African states

The main aim of this study was to investigate the impact of foreign portfolio investment on economic growth in Africa. The motivation to explore the effects of portfolio investment and growth stemmed from the fact that Africa has recorded large capital inflows since the global financial crisis. These capital flows can have positive or negative consequences. The effects of foreign portfolio investment on the African economy is an area of interest because very little has been done on the subject area. The study used quarterly panel from 1995 to 2014. The study used only five African countries; South Africa, Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius and Nigeria. These countries were chosen because they are in the top five of the African financial markets index. A GMM model was adopted to test the effects of portfolio flows on economic growth in the selected African states. Results showed that there is a weak relationship between portfolio investment and economic growth and that there is a positive relationship between INT and GDP. Results also show a positive relationship between EXCH and GDP in the long run. A depreciation in the rand exchange rate is seen to be depressing economic growth. The study recommended that the Central Banks in African countries develop better strategies to enhance capital flows' benefits. This can be done by establishing and improving financial institutions which are still developing.

Awareness of cervical cancer amongst female adolescents: A Nigerian study

Background: Cervical cancer is the commonest genital tract malignancy in Nigeria. Due to no organized screening modalities in this part of the world and late presentation mortality from cervical cancer is high. Awareness of cervical cancer as preventive measures amongst adolescents will curtail the disease burden and mortality in the developing countries of the world. Aim: To determine the awareness of cervical cancer amongst adolescents in south and eastern Nigeria. Method: The survey was a six-week cross sectional study conducted among 240 female adolescents attending a holiday camp meeting in Rivers state, Ngeria. The subjects were from ten secondary schools in the state and undergraduates from five universities in South and Eastern Nigeria. Permission for the study was granted by office of the Director of Public Health, Rivers State Ministry of Health. The information was coded and analysed using SPSS version 25. Results: The study involved 240 subjects. The mean age was 15 years. Forty-three (17.9%) of the adolescents were below 13 years, 124 (51.6%) were between age 14 – 16 years, 73 (30.5%) were between ages 17 – 19 years. Thirty-six (15%) of the adolescents were in their junior secondary while 134 (55.8%) were in senior secondary and undergraduates were 70 (29.2%) of the adolescents. The awareness of cervical cancer amongst the subjects was 108 (45%). The awareness of cervical cancer according to educational categories of the adolescents were as follows, undergraduates were 54 (22.5%), senior secondary 23 (9.6%) and junior secondary 19 (7.9%). The commonest means of information about the cervical cancer was the media 120 (50%), followed by school 72 (30%), hospital 24 (10%) and others 24 (10%). Conclusion: The study revealed the awareness of cervical cancer as 45% amongst female adolescents in south and eastern Nigeria. This is worrisome due to the number of morbidities and mortalities of cervical cancer in the developing countries of the world. Enlightenment and advocacy campaigns should be stepped-up amongst adolescents in these regions and in Nigeria as a country.

Review of antiretroviral therapy coverage in 10 highest burden HIV countries in Africa: 2015-2020.

Africa is responsible for two-thirds of the global total of new HIV infections. South Africa, Nigeria, Mozambique, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Malawi, and Ethiopia were responsible for 80% of HIV cases in Africa in 2014 according to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). This study assesses antiretroviral coverage strategies implemented by these countries after the initiation of the "Fast-Track strategy to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030." Data reported in this review were obtained from different e-bibliographic including PubMed, Google Scholar, and Research Gate. Key terms were "Antiretroviral therapy,""Antiretroviral treatment,""HIV treatment," "HIV medication,""HIV/AIDS therapy,""HIV/AIDS treatment" + each of the countries listed earlier. We also extracted data on antiretroviral therapy(ART) coverage from the UNAIDS database. About 50 papers published from 2015 to 2021 met the inclusion criteria. All 10 countries have experienced an increase in ART coverage from 2015 to 2020 with an average of 47.6% increment. Nigeria recorded the highest increase in the rate of ART coverage (72% increase) while Ethiopia had the least (30%). New strategies adopted to increase ART coverage and retention in most countries were community-based models and the use of mobile health technology rather than clinic-based. These strategies focus on promoting task shifting, door-to-door access to HIV services, and a long-term supply of antiretroviral medications. Most of these strategies are still in the piloting stage. However, some new strategies and frameworks have been adopted nationwide in countries like Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, and Malawi. Identified challenges include lack of funding, inadequate testing and surveillance services, poor digital penetration, and cultural/religious beliefs. The adoptionof community-based and digital health strategies could have contributed to increased ART coverage and retention. African countries should facilitate nationwide scaling of ART coverage strategies to attain the 95-95-95 goal by 2030.

THE EVALUATION OF DRONE AND INTELLIGENCE LED POLICING TECHNOLOGIES IN COMBATING CRIMES IN NIGERIA AND SOUTH AFRICA

This paper focuses on the application of drones and intelligence-led policing technologies in combating crime in South Africa and Nigeria The qualitative methodology was used adopting focus group technique for data collection. Findings reveals that most countries have set specific rules for drone flights and few restrictions are imposed on their weight carrying capacity, drones pose novel and difficult problems for law enforcement, drones have been put to a host of nefarious uses, from smuggling contraband into prisons, criminals used drones to supply illegal products, illicit drugs, contraband goods, criminals use drone for illegal surveillances, drones are used by law enforcement agents for surveillance and raiding, drones are used to carry out surveillance and crime investigations, drones can be flown remotely by an operator far away from the crime scene and in some jurisdictions the use of drones are lightly regulated by legislation, consequently local and state authorities are restricted from intercepting drones in flight, potentially even when a crime is in progress. There is need for improvements of drone technology to enable its applications by the criminal justice and law enforcement for resolving crime problems, intelligence led policing strategies should be adopted in consonance with drone technology for swift justice in Nigeria and South Africa, need for government of both countries to regulate drone technology, need to upgrade current legislation regulating the application of drones in both countries.

COVID-19 preventives consumed in South Africa versus other Sub-Saharan African countries.

The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been of global concern as it has affected the health of many and the economies of nations. In order to strengthen the immune system against COVID-19, certain plant-source foods were consumed. This study was designed to identify and compare various special foods and drinks consumed to prevent COVID-19 during the lockdown in various sub-Saharan countries in comparison to South Africa (SA), as well as highlighting some current dietary recommendations. Online cross-sectional survey in six African countries, namely South Africa, Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia and Kenya. After sample size determination, an online questionnaire was designed and content validated. The survey link was pretested on 25 people and then circulated for 6 weeks during total lockdown. The proportion of responses for each question were reported using descriptive statistics. Half of the 817 participants surveyed were not consuming anything special for COVID-19 prevention. South Africans mostly reported the consumption of supplements or conventional medicines (mainly vitamin C and zinc) while for other countries, a variety of natural foods and drinks were mentioned - some having already proved helpful in boosting immune systems. They included infusions of spices with or without honey, fruits and vegetables, medicinal drinks and local beverages. Programmes and campaigns designed to increase awareness of dietary measures for COVID-19 prevention have proved beneficial and should be promoted. Analytical evaluation of the nutritional and health benefits and antiviral potentials of the identified special foods would help in determining which foods to prioritise and promote in the fight against COVID-19. This study shows the possibility of finding dietary solutions for managing the pandemic and 'preventive' potentials of certain plant substances.

Violence Against Health Care in Nigeria and South Sudan: Frontline Health Worker Perspectives on Threats and Solutions

Background/Introduction:Health staff in South Sudan and Nigeria face extreme risks while providing services: in 2021, at least 18 health care workers were killed in South Sudan and Nigeria, while 32 were kidnapped. Reporting of such incidents takes place via the WHO coordinated SS. However, such event reporting is not designed to capture “lower scale” security incidents, nor does it capture possible solutions. As such, the IRC in coordination with the Health Cluster and national organizations are conducting a survey to complement the existing analysis with insights of frontline health care workers, to support program design, funding requests, and advocacy activities. Research questions include: What are the most common incidents of violence against health care workers?What has been the impact of these incidents on staff well-being, on the health system/sector, and on access to health care for the wider community?What are the priorities in preventing such incidents and reducing their impact?Objectives:To identify incidents of violence against health care as experienced by health care staff in 2022.To identify health workers perspective on causes, impact, and what works in terms of prevention and response.Method/Description:A self-administered, online survey targeting all health staff working for the humanitarian community in South Sudan and Northeastern Nigeria.Results/Outcomes:This study is on-going with results expected by early September.Conclusion:This study is on-going with results expected by early September.

Analysis of first apheresis services in Ghana-Greater Accra Regional Hospital

BackgroundAt the combined American Society for Apheresis (ASFA) annual meeting and World Apheresis Association (WAA) Congress in 2014, it was observed that there were significant disparities with regard to the access of apheresis services within and across developing countries, with only few of such facilities available in Africa; notably South Africa and Nigeria. In 2019, Bone Marrow Transplantation (BMT) Unit-Ghana, acquired an apheresis machine. By the collaboration between BMT-Ghana, the Greater Accra Regional Hospital (GARH) and the Ministry of Health (Ghana), apheresis services is now available in Ghana. The aim of this paper is to present an analysis of apheresis services so far in Ghana. MethodA 12-month period from 2019 to 2021 was examined (less the period of the COVID-19 outbreak when the Unit was virtually at a standstill). The electronic database and hard copies of documented activities were analysed. Basic information on demographics and procedure types and counts was used. ResultsThe retrospective study encompassed data of 43 patients. Two (2) patients came from the West Africa sub-region (Nigeria and Cameroon) with the rest from 6 out of the 14 regions of Ghana (Greater Accra, Western, Central, Eastern, Ashanti, Volta). The essential nature of the apheresis services being the first in Ghana, brought patients as far as 315 km from the hinterlands to the Unit. Ages ranged from 2-52 years with a mean of 16.3 ± 15.3 years. Slightly more females (n = 23, 53%) received services than males (n = 20, 47%). Eighty-six percent (n = 37, 86%) of the patients were sickle cell patients referred to the Unit. Red Blood Cell exchange (RBCx) accounted for 87% (n = 40), of the 46 procedure counts followed by Continuous Mononuclear Cell Collection (CMNC) (n = 4, 9%) and lastly, Therapeutic Plasma Exchange (TPE) (n = 2, 4%). ConclusionGhana can now be counted among African countries offering apheresis services and the GARH is acknowledged as the only hospital in the country with this facility, thus improving patient care significantly.

The Impacts of Urbanisation and Climate Change on the Urban Thermal Environment in Africa

Rapid urbanisation is affecting people in different ways, with some becoming more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Africa’s cities are projected to be home to nearly 60% of the continent’s population by 2050. In conjunction with climate change, these cities are experiencing critical environmental challenges, including changes in the urban thermal environment. Urban areas generally exhibit significantly higher air and surface temperatures than their surrounding rural areas, resulting in urban heat islands. However, little has been done to synthesise existing knowledge and identify the key research gaps in this area, particularly in Africa. This paper focuses on the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the urban thermal environment in Africa, and provides a comprehensive review of results, major advances and the dominant direction of research. Our review of 40 publications from peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2021 revealed that South Africa, Ethiopia and Nigeria were most frequently studied, and satellite imagery-based data and analysis were used predominantly. Results from a few studies have shown the practical implications for urban land-use planning, informal settlement management, human wellbeing and productivity, energy use, air pollution and disease spread. Integrated approaches, strengthening planning institutions, and early warning systems are proposed to address climate change. Low-income groups are emphasised in efforts to help people cope with heat stress. Solutions based on land use and land cover dynamics and blue–green infrastructure are mentioned but are in need of further research. Cities with similar patterns of urbanisation, geographies and climate conditions could benefit from multi-disciplinary research collaboration to address the combined impacts of rapid urbanisation and climate change.

Corporate Governance Mechanisms and Dividend Payouts of Listed Non-Financial Firms: Evidence from Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries

This study examined the effects of corporate governance elements on the dividend distribution of listed corporations in the three Sub-Saharan African countries of South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. The inquiry used inferential statistics in the form of the system generalized method of moments (GMM). The findings show that corporate governance factors have a fundamental influence on dividend distribution in the three Sub-Saharan African countries. More specifically, board independence has a significant negative influence on dividend payout, but board size, board gender diversity, and management ownership all directly and materially affect the dividend payout of listed non-financial firms. The paper suggested that authorities in charge of regulation in the examined Sub-Sahara Africa nation’s securities exchange have to continually ensure that all firms comply stringently with the codes of corporate governance in other to limit market infractions and boost stakeholders’ confidence and thus stimulate more investment in their respective capital markets.

The Relationship Between Perceived Social Support and Medication Adherence Among Adult Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients Attending the Diabetes Clinic in a Tertiary Health Institution in South- South Nigeria

Purpose: Medication adherence can be defined as the extent to which a patient’s behaviour corresponds to the medication dosing regimen including time, dosing, and interval of medication intake. In chronic conditions with long-term therapies like hypertension, diabetes, depression, etc., adherence is important in achieving target outcomes but is often low. It has long been recognized that support from family, friends and significant others do play a role in helping diabetics adhere to their medication which might lead to optimal glycaemic control. This study set out to find out what influence perceived social support has, as regards medication adherence among adult type 2 diabetic Nigerians assessing care in Federal Medical Centre, Asaba, Nigeria.
 Methodology: The study was conducted on 244 participants who attended the diabetic clinic of the Federal Medical Centre, Asaba from September to November 2018. Data was collected by means of an interviewer-administered questionnaire comprising of 3 sections. Section A was for sociodemographic characteristics, section B was the 8-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale for information on medication adherence and section C was the modified Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support to collect information on perceived social support.
 Findings: All the recruited 244 participants completed the study giving a response rate of 100. The age range of the respondents was 18 to 87 years with a mean age of 51.9 ± 6.1 years. Females accounted for a higher percentage of respondents [60.2%] compared to their male counterparts [39.8%]. Good total perceived social support was significantly associated with high medication adherence [p=0.0001]. A good total perceived social support (OR = 3.27; 95% CI = 2.25 - 4.71; P = 0.0001) has 3.27 times the odds for high medication adherence than a poor total perceived social support.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: The study shows that high medication adherence is significantly associated with good perceived social support. It is important that healthcare providers caring for patients with type 2 diabetes involve families, friends, or significant others in their management so as to improve their medication adherence. Routine evaluation of perceived social support is also recommended for type 2 diabetes patients with poor medication adherence.

Transport Poverty: A Comparative Study between South Africa and Nigeria

Background: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and neighbourhood liveability is dependent on an improved transportation sector. Urban transport is conceptualized as either mobility or accessibility; thus, it remains an integral part in enhancing urban livelihood and serves as a hub connecting all sectors of a city's economy. Lack of access to opportunities and/or services, inadequate transport services, and physical or financial inaccessibility to transport options are prevailing in African cities and have been used to conceptualize transport poverty. Objectives: This study seeks the relationship between some dimensions of transport poverty and life satisfaction. The argument put forward in this study is that transport poverty predicts life satisfaction that is a vital aspect of subjective wellbeing. Methods: The study utilise an exploratory, comparative design that will enable the comparison of dimensions of Transport Poverty in Ibadan, Nigeria, and Durban, South Africa. For this study, communities in both Ibadan and Durban were randomly selected; while data were collected through an online survey method. The hypothesis that spatial exclusion mediates the relationship between service availability and satisfaction with life, transport disadvantaged and satisfaction with life, and transport reliability and satisfaction with life were tested through mediation analysis. Results: For the first hypothesis, partial mediation existed; for the second hypothesis, no mediation existed; for the third hypothesis, total mediation existed. Lastly, spatial exclusion varied between the two countries. Conclusion: The study concludes that a transport network that is not reliable leads to spatial exclusion, which in turns affects satisfaction with life. Likewise, all dimensions of transport poverty are similar except for spatial exclusion which differs between the countries, with South Africans experiencing more cases of spatial exclusion as compared to Nigerians.

Measuring the effects of climate techs and social inequality on climate performance using a SEM-DEA approach

The objective of this study was to propose an index based on the IPAT model to quantify the performance of countries concerning their emissions, also taking into account the level of climate technology and the level of inequality. In this study, two quantitative techniques were applied to a sample of 100 countries and 21 indicators. The main results were: (a) a 1% increase in social inequality contributes to an increase in emissions levels by 0.105; (b) the 1% increase in climate techs contributes to reducing emissions levels by 0.141; (c) The proposed IPA index shows that only Estonia and Slovenia are the best performers, mainly in overcoming the inequality barrier, while South Africa and Nigeria are the worst performers in reducing their emissions. The results provide evidence that climate policies should contain social targets to improve country performance and should use a representative value to identify their effectiveness.

In Vitro Antibacterial Activity of Garcinia Kola Aqueous Stem Extract on Bacterial Isolated from Patient Visiting a Tertiary Health Facility in South- South Nigeria

The study of medicinal plants used in folklore remedies in the treatment of microbial infections have attracted the attention of many scientists as possible alternatives to the existing drugs to which many infectious microorganisms have become resistant. Presently, there are global problems of multiple antibiotics resistance as well as emergence of new and resurrection of previously eradicated diseases. Reports on ethnobotanical records indicate a consensus on the use of antimicrobially active medicinal plants to provide cheaper drugs.

In Vitro Antibacterial Activity of Garcinia Kola Aqueous Stem Extract on Bacterial Isolated from Patient Visiting a Tertiary Health Facility in South- South Nigeria

The study of medicinal plants used in folklore remedies in the treatment of microbial infections have attracted the attention of many scientists as possible alternatives to the existing drugs to which many infectious microorganisms have become resistant. Presently, there are global problems of multiple antibiotics resistance as well as emergence of new and resurrection of previously eradicated diseases. Reports on ethnobotanical records indicate a consensus on the use of antimicrobially active medicinal plants to provide cheaper drugs.

Investigation of foundation bed’s characteristics and environmental safety assessment in some parts of Bayelsa State, south–south Nigeria

Investigation of foundation bed’s characteristics and environmental safety assessment in some parts of Bayelsa State, south–south Nigeria

Knowledge and perception of COVID-19 and its treatment. A community-based survey in South Nigeria.

BackgroundMedia channels increased COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty and disputes, hindering dissemination and acceptance of evidence-based health information. Socioeconomic, cultural, and developmental factors affect a community’s access to credible health information. This community-based study aims to assess semi-urban residents’ understanding of COVID-19.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study of 384 multistage-sampled residents of the study site. Sociodemographic, psychographic, and COVID-19 and treatment knowledge were obtained using a semistructured questionnaire. Six questions were used to measure knowledge, which was deemed adequate (three or more correct answers) or inadequate (fewer than three correct responses).Results54 out of 364 responders (14.8%) knew COVID-19. 68.9% of respondents stated citrus fruits or spices, 46.1% mentioned infection safety, and 13.3% mentioned chloroquine for prevention. Regarding treatment, 55.5% of responders reported chloroquine and 20.9% hydroxychloroquine. 17% chose ”none of the above.” Class I workers were four times more likely to have adequate knowledge than class V workers (p=0.019), while class III workers were 79% less likely (p=0.046). Males had 68%less knowledge than females (p=0.008). Conclusions: In this study, adequate knowledge of COVID-19 was low and associated with higher socioeconomic class.