South Korean Presidential Election Research Articles

Affective Polarization in the 2022 South Korean Presidential Election: Causes and Consequences

In this study, we analyzed the factors that intensified affective polarization among voters during the 2022 South Korean presidential election. We also examined this polarization's effect on their political attitudes, including their satisfaction with democracy, perception of the fairness of elections, and trust in political institutions. We found that the greater the perceived ideological differences between the two parties the People Power Party (PPP) and the Democratic Party ― (DP)―and the more extreme the voter's ideology, the more affective polarization increased. We also found that affective polarization intensified with increasing ideological extremity among all age cohorts except those in their forties. Finally, in contrast to DP supporters, PPP supporters' political attitudes became more negative as their affective polarization increased because the opposing party, the DP, was the governing party. This suggests that affective polarization may polarize support for democratic norms and trust in the political institutions that underpin democracy, depending on one's partisan allegiances.

“Gender wars” and populist politics in South Korea

The 2022 South Korean presidential election campaign saw populist politicians, especially conservative parties, leverage gender conflicts and misogyny to attract young male swing voters. But there has been limited scholarly attention to the connection between gender and populist politics, particularly in South Korea, with research primarily focused on women's voting patterns, their political party representation, and on populist politics in the US, Europe, and Latin America. Existing research identifies that common strategies employed by populist politicians include anti-feminist discourses, reference to crises in masculinity, and appeals to emotion and affect. This paper examines how South Korean populist politics has utilized gender conflicts since democratization, considering the evolution of ‘gender wars’ in the South Korean context. It specifically delves into the strategies employed by conservative populist politicians from the People Power Party (PPP) during the 2022 election campaigns. These strategies, although similar to those of right-wing populists in Europe and the US, emphasized three key issues unique to South Korea: compulsory military service, low fertility rates, and the dismantling of the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. This South Korean case contributes significantly to academic discussions about populist politics and gender, contextualized within the local political, social, and cultural context.

Analysis of South Korean Presidential Election Results Based on Regional Voter Turnout

Analysis of South Korean Presidential Election Results Based on Regional Voter Turnout

Who Leads? Who Follows? Exploring Agenda Setting by Media, Social Bots and Public in the Discussion of the 2022 South Korean Presidential Election

Social media not only changes the traditional communication environment but also brings new changes to agenda-setting. The main body of agenda-setting has shifted from the traditional media to the politicians, political parties and grassroots people. With the increasing use of social bots in public opinion manipulation and political election interference, whether they can participate in or influence agenda-setting has become an urgent concern. So far, there has been less literature focusing on engagement in agenda-setting for social bots. This paper studies the social media discussion content of the South Korean presidential election, determines the participation of social bots, and explores the connection between media agenda, bot agenda, and public agenda from the perspective of agenda setting. This study finds that while the main agendas of media, social bots, and the public are not the same, their agendas are relevant. In addition, the media agenda is not timely ahead of the bot agenda and the public agenda, and the time order only appears between the social bots and the public.

Theory and practice of agenda setting: understanding media, bot, and public agendas in the South Korean presidential election

ABSTRACT Social media not only changes the traditional communication environment, but also introduces new modifications to agenda setting. With the increasing use of social bots in public opinion manipulation and political election interference, whether they can participate in or influence agenda setting has become an urgent concern. Currently, there is limited literature focusing on engagement in agenda-setting for social bots agenda setting. This paper examines the content of social media discussion related to the South Korean presidential election, identifies the presence of social bots, and explores the relationships between media agenda, bot agenda, and public agenda from the perspective of agenda setting. The study found that although the primary agendas of the media, social bots, and the public are not identical, they are interconnected. Furthermore, the media agenda does not precede the bot agenda and the public agenda in terms of timeliness, and chronological order is only observed between social bots and the public.

Forecasting South Korea’s presidential election via multiparty dynamic Bayesian modeling

Forecasting a presidential election’s outcome is a long-standing topic in statistics and political science. However, a lack of historical data and a complex multiparty political system make it challenging to apply models developed so far to South Korea’s presidential election. In addition, no suitable model has been proposed to address these issues, and there are no practical means by which to forecast presidential elections in South Korea. Here, we propose a flexible Bayesian framework for forecasting election outcomes at the provincial level by incorporating abundant pre-election polls into historical data. Hilbert spaces are employed to induce a multiparty forecast. Our framework provides numerous findings worth examining, such as long- and short-term opinion trends, the effect of fundamental conditions on vote share, and systematic bias in pre-election polls. The framework is applied to the 2022 South Korean presidential election, demonstrating that our framework is promising.

Hearing and speaking the other side: The roles of expression and opinion climate perception in political polarization

The role of cross-cutting exposure in political polarization has long been discussed. Building on this literature, we proposed a moderated mediation model in which cross-cutting exposure is linked to political polarization, especially affective polarization, differently through different types of political expression, and furthermore these indirect effects of cross-cutting exposure are moderated by opinion climate perception. To test this model, we used data collected by a multi-method approach in the context of a South Korean presidential election: (a) digital trace data of online discussion behavior (i.e., exposure and expression) in the online discussion forum custom built for this study, combined with (b) traditional three-wave panel surveys. Results indicate that cross-cutting exposure increased cross-cutting expression while having no effect on like-minded expression. Cross-cutting expression was then found to reduce affective polarization and attitude extremity. Furthermore, the mediation by cross-cutting expression between cross-cutting exposure and attitude extremity was amplified when participants perceived their opinion to be on the majority side, but such moderation effect was not significant on affective polarization. Implications were discussed regarding ‘hearing the other side’ and ‘speaking the other side.’

The 2022 South Korean Presidential Election and the Gender Divide among the Youth

The 2022 South Korean presidential election was the country's most closely contested election since a democratic direct electoral system was initiated in 1987, with less than a 1 percent di erence separating the two major candidates among 34 million votes cast. Despite some parallels with and continuities from previous elections, the 2022 election saw new voting alignments emerge based on one topic: gender equality. In this essay, we explain how and why gender became such a prominent issue during the 2022 election campaign, and how this a ected voting patterns, especially among male and female voters in their twenties and thirties. Specifically, we argue that gendered voter behaviour during the election arose from rising anti-feminist sentiments among young men, and that the two main presidential candidates politicized the issue to maximize support from this group. This in turn triggered the consolidation of a young female voting bloc. Using an original survey conducted in January 2022 with an approximate nationally representative sample of 1,017 respondents, we identify two possible causes of rising anti-feminist sentiments among young men: the belief that women receive preferential treatment in employment opportunities and mandatory military service for men. In addition, through an embedded survey experiment run before the election, we proposed that political candidates with pro-gender messages would be less likely to receive support from young men, while candidates with anti-gender messages would be likely to receive more support; these projections were confirmed by the actual voting breakdowns of the recent election. The results suggest that the new administration must handle gender issues with extreme care to ensure that divergent perceptions of the gender divide do not become further polarized over the next few years, since such a development could very well fuel democratic deconsolidation in South Korea.

Wyzwania i kierunki aktywności administracji prezydenta Yoon Suk Yeola

The purpose of the article is to describe the 2022 South Korean presidential election against the backdrop of a paradigm shift and to show the challenges and directions of Yoon Suk Yeol’s new administration. The author focuses on the research problems present in the new South Korean politics. Elements of change and continuity, which were also present in previous administrations are highlighted. In May 2022, Yoon Suk Yeol was sworn into the South Korea’s highest office. Yoon’s win in the presidential election ended a trend in which a decade of progressive rule was followed by a change to conservative rule. Since 1998, progressive and conservative presidents have alternated every two terms. The minimal difference in votes in favor of the conservative candidate reflected the divisions and social preferences of Koreans who favored a change from progressive to conservative government. The results of the 2022 presidential election revealed the polarization of South Korean society. Yoon will face a series of difficult challenges. In domestic politics, he must confront the housing crisis, widespread dissatisfaction with economic inequality, and generational tensions, among other issues. Yoon will also be challenged by the parliamentary majority currently held by the Democratic Party in the National Assembly. In foreign policy, South Korea’s new president advocates strengthening the alliance with the United States and cooperation with the Quad countries; he promises to improve relations with Japan, and to take steps toward South Korea playing a greater role in the world. In his inter-Korean policy, on the other hand, Yoon follows the traditional position of the conservatives, pledging to strengthen a policy of deterrence against acts of aggression and provocation by North Korea.

계급 투표의 재구성: 자산과 소득의 연계를 중심으로

계급 투표의 재구성: 자산과 소득의 연계를 중심으로

Analyzing Public Opinion and Emotions Using Tweets and Online-Comments toward Candidates in 2017 South Korean Presidential Election

The 2017 Korean presidential election was different from previous presidential elections for two reasons: First, it was a by-election due to the unprecedented impeachment of the president Park Geun-hye, and second, more than three candidates from multiple parties competed in the election. Since Moon Jae-in was predicted to easily win, the fight for the second place - between Hong Joon-pyo and Ahn Cheol-soo - was very competitive. In order to understand the electoral dynamics, we collect and analyze tweets and online-comments toward major candidates with logic of granger causality. We find that public sentiment toward Ahn does Granger-cause changes in online sentiment toward other candidates both from major and minor parties. This result shows that Ahn played a pivotal role in the 2017 presidential election, and implies that Koreans are eager to have alternative forces.

Voting behavior in the South Korean presidential election – exploring the regional voting pattern

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine regional voting patterns in South Korea using the results from six presidential elections since the 1990s. Design/methodology/approach A χ2 test was used to determine the municipalities where a regional voting pattern emerged, and λ correlation coefficients were calculated to examine changes in the regional voting patterns. Findings The analyses lead to three key findings. First, voting patterns differ in Yeongnam and Honam: regional voting in Yeongnam is getting weaker, it remains strong in Honam. Second, the tendency to vote along regional lines decreased significantly in the election in which the Honam party fielded a candidate with a Yeongnam appeared identity. Third, regional voting patterns declined but then stabilized at a constant level, regardless of the candidates’ local identity, which was confirmed in “Bu-Ul-Gyeong.” Originality/value This paper can empirically verify the manifestation of regional voting pattern and confirm the trend. It is possible to derive a condition for suppressing the regional voting pattern.

Social Media and Regionalism in South Korean Voting Behavior: The Case of the 19th South Korean Presidential Election

This study examines the moderating effects of social media use on regionalist voting behavior in South Korea. Analyzing the survey data conducted during the 2017 Korean presidential election, we test how social media functions in electoral processes, particularly with respect to region-based voting in the Korean electorate. The findings of this study reveal that social media use affects region-based voting behavior among the Korean electorate by connecting people with different regional backgrounds in online political communication. That is, social media use can create “bridging” social capital rather than “bonding” social capital in society. In this respect, results differ significantly from findings in the 2012 presidential election. In 2012, only the independent effects of social media existed with a liberal bias, without revealing interaction with regional dummies. These independent effects disappeared in 2017, and different kinds of social media were statistically significant only when they functioned as moderating variables for regional dummies. This implies that as the functions of social media in the Korean election process have evolved in more complexity, they now are able to affect progressive as well as conservative voters.

Towards the operationalization of controversial news: a study of online news articles and reader comments during the 2017 presidential election in South Korea

In this brief research note, we propose a set of concepts and methods for identifying and operationalizing controversial news items. Based on an analysis of online readers’ comments posted in response to political news articles in the lead-up to the most recent South Korean presidential election (May 9, 2017), we develop what we term as “controversy indicator.” We calculate a controversy score using the total number of reader comments and the proportion of “upvotes” (indicating approval) and “downvotes” (indicating disapproval) a given news article elicits. Our findings demonstrate the potential usefulness of the controversy indicator in understanding the contemporary news environment, which is becoming increasingly divisive and polluted with disinformation.

Who creates the bandwagon? The dynamics of fear of isolation, opinion congruency and anonymity-preference on social media in the 2017 South Korean presidential election

This paper proposes a new approach to study fear of isolation (FOI), with special attention to psychological motivations/gratifications sought in the online sphere (opinion congruency-seeking and anonymity-preference), which may lead to political expression via social media. We posit that individuals with FOI will display a tendency to want to match their opinions with the majority and will also actively utilize online platforms as they offer anonymity. This empirical study collected data from a random sample of 1107 participants in South Korea, a frontrunner in terms of political expression on social media. The results demonstrated that FOI is associated with opinion congruency as well as anonymity-preference and further, political use of social media which prompts offline political engagement. Findings of this paper goes beyond conventional paradigms on political psychology (selective exposure based on partisanship or ideology) and contribute to a better understanding of how anonymous, online behaviors generate political engagement.

2017년 대통령 선거에서 이념과 세대: 보수 성향 유권자를 중심으로

2017년 대통령 선거에서 이념과 세대: 보수 성향 유권자를 중심으로

Determinants of Attitude toward the Public Health Spending and Its Relationship with Voting Behavior in the 2012 South Korean Presidential Election.

This study aimed to identify the factors influencing South Korean voters’ attitudes towards increasing public expenditure on health and to identify whether the issue of healthcare expenditure influenced candidate choice in the 2012 Korean presidential election. The study used the data from a survey conducted by the Institute of Korean Politics at Seoul National University immediately following the 2012 presidential election. The survey was completed by a nationwide sample of 1,200 people aged 19 or over using a face-to-face interview method and proportional quota sampling based on sex, age, and region. About 44.3% of respondents had a positive attitude toward increasing public health expenditure. There was no significant difference by the candidate they supported (conservative Park Geun-hye or liberal Moon Jae-in). In particular, even 44.9% of conservative supporters agreed with more spending. Politically neutral respondents (OR = 1.76, 90% CI 1.22–2.54) and strong conservative party supporters (OR = 1.53, 90% CI 1.05–2.25) were more likely to support public health expenditure increase compared to strong liberal party supporters. Also, respondents who believed that the economic gap in the country was widening were 1.91 times more likely to support an increase in public health expenditures. However, the issue of health expenditure had no influence on voters’ choice of presidential candidates, and in particular no negative effect of choice of the ruling (conservative) party’s candidate. Our results should be interpreted with care; one possible reason for this lack of effect might be that constituents voted along partisan lines regardless of their attitude to the welfare issue; another possible explanation might be the success of the “left click strategy” of the conservative party. That is, the conservatives did not reject economic democratization or social welfare expansion. Further research should be done to explain why attitudes to health spending did not directly affect choice of candidate.

Perception and Emotion: The Indirect Effect of Reported Election Poll Results on Political Participation Intention and Support for Restrictions

This study explores how the perceived effect and bias of reported election poll results are associated with voters' attitudes toward restrictions on polling reports and their political participation intention through emotions. A telephone survey using a representative sample of South Korean voters (N = 597) was conducted prior to the 2012 South Korean presidential election. Results indicate that the third-person perception of reported election poll results was indirectly linked to support for restrictions on polling reports through anxiety. For supporters of Mr. Jae In Moon, the nominee of the liberal Democratic United Party, who was reported to be behind in the polls, the hostile media perception was indirectly associated with support for restrictions through anxiety and directly associated with political participation intention. Implications of the findings are discussed.

The Citizen Journalism Web Site 'OhmyNews' and the 2002 South Korean Presidential Election

This paper is one of the first in a series of case studies that examines the impact of the Internet and technology on democracy. This specific case investigates the influence of the participatory media Web site OhmyNews during the 2002 South Korean Presidential election. It begins with a discussion of the phenomenon of citizen journalism and the importance of an independent media to democracy. It next moves to a discussion of the motivation for the creation of OhmyNews by Oh Yon Ho. The case also explains the OhmyNews model for producing and editing news. It then discusses how real world activism may have contributed to online activism and lays out a narrative of OhmyNews' activity during the Presidential election. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of the feasibility of the OhmyNews business model, the site's struggle to remain profitable, and the organization's less than successful attempt to expand to other similar markets, notably Japan.

The U.S.–South Korean Alliance: Anti-American Challenges

December 2002 shook up South Korea's conservative establishment and its U.S. ally. Five days before the South Korean presidential election, with a quarter of the electorate still remaining undecided, leaders of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and religious activists staged a massive candlelight vigil in front of Seoul's city hall to protest against “unequal” provisions in South Korea's Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with its U.S. ally. The political rally drew some 40,000 protestors from all walks of life. Moreover, it was only one among many climaxes in a long mobilization drive launched by NGOs and “netizens” since June, when a U.S. armored vehicle driven by Sergeant Fernando Nino and Mark Walker ran over two teenage girls during a military exercise in Hyochonli. That month saw some thirty NGOs establish a national umbrella organization to demand the trial of Nino and Walker under South Korean law. Then, in December, the Catholic, Buddhist, and Protestant religious orders joined in to lend their authority to the protestors by collectively calling for the revision of SOFA to give South Korea “primary jurisdiction” over criminal cases. The radicalhanchongryonuniversity students, too, showed up in protest sites to stir up and escalate anti-American sentiments, regularly raiding U.S. military bases in Uijongbu and Yongsan and even breaking into the U.S. Embassy compound in November. But unlike the past, this intrusion of radicalhanchongryonactivists did not drive away presumably conservative middle-class groups from political rallies. On the contrary, the call for a SOFA revision grew louder after the U.S. military court judged Nino and Walker not guilty of negligent homicide.