South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation Countries Research Articles

Performance analysis of PVSyst based grid connected photovoltaic systems in Pakistan compared to SAARC countries

Electricity demand increasing day by day with the passage of time, fossil fuels and traditional electricity sources are becoming obsolete. The possibility of dealing with a power deficit and importing oil and gas for electricity generation exists for developing nations like Pakistan. One of the most accessible and affordable sources of renewable energy in the world is solar power generating. Photovoltaic (PV) cell performance is influenced by the environment and the technology used to capture the available energy. The Islamabad region of Pakistan is blessed with an average of 300 days of sunshine a year due to its location in the solar band at 33.7215°N latitude and 73.0433°E longitude. The current study compares and contrasts how Pakistan and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries generate electricity using solar systems. Choosing one geographical place from all SAARC nations, PVSyst software is used to develop and estimate the performance study for solar model cell Panasonic 320Wp, 48V and 1.5 kW Inverter Fronius for a 9.6 kWp load. Energy supplied into the grid is studied together with various losses that occur in the system, with the choice of PV arrays and other factors remaining the same for comparison study of all SAARC countries. The approach to minimize losses through the utilization of an adjustable tilt angle has been implemented. This study will be useful in estimating and planning the solar energy output in all SAARC nations for the same photovoltaic system, and it will be simple to trade all PV system components in the region.

Energy Consumption, Financial Development and Environmental Degradation: An Empirical Evidence from SAARC Countries

This study examines the correlation between environmental degradation, financial development, and energy consumption in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region. Data covering the period of 1980 to 2022 have been utilized. For empirical estimation, the study applies the Hausman test and the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The country-specific effects of energy consumption (EC) and financial development (FD) on total greenhouse gases (TGHG) have been checked. The dependent variable is environmental deterioration. TGHGs are used to illustrate ecological degradation. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth have been control variables. FEM results show that EC, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and FDI all have a significant effect on environmental deterioration. In contrast, the link between FD and TGHG emissions is inverse, implying that FD reduces ecological damage. However, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) idea has been confirmed since, as GDP grows, pollution begins to drop in an inverted "U-shape." The Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) has also been verified in certain SAARC countries. The findings have significance for governments in encouraging industries to participate in renewable energy projects and for financial institutions in determining how much to subsidize loans for such investment projects to reduce TGHG emissions, resulting in a slightly cleaner environment.

The Belt and Road Initiative's (BRI) Impact on International Trade of SAARC Countries

The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on foreign commerce in the nations that make up the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is compared in this study. With data taken from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) for two different time periods (2008–2012 and 2014–2018), the study assesses changes in imports, exports, trade balances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Different patterns in trade dynamics are revealed by the findings. Bangladesh had notable improvements in trade over the 2014–2018 period, whereas Afghanistan’s development was less than anticipated. Bhutan’s trade development was encouraged and in line with the goals of the Belt and Road Initiative. India demonstrated trade endurance by continuing to develop steadily. Positive developments were demonstrated by the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, confirming the BRI’s contribution to the growth of commerce. There have been improvements in the trade balances of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Maldives. Following the BRI, the FDI landscape steadied, with increases in FDI observed in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Maldives. With an emphasis on the significance of taking into account the particular context of every nation and the dynamic nature of international commerce, this research offers a comprehensive assessment of the effects of the Belt and Road Initiative. The results provide insightful information to help stakeholders, scholars, and policymakers navigate the intricate web of international commerce in the SAARC area.

Unraveling the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on foreign direct investment and its determinants: empirical insights from SAARC countries

PurposeThis paper aims to unravel the impact of post-pandemic COVID-19 on foreign direct investment (FDI) and its determinants in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Countries.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilized four macroeconomic variables includes growth domestic product growth rate (GDPG), inflation rate (IR), exchange rate (ER), and unemployment rate (UR) to assess their impact on post-pandemic FDI, along with two variables control of corruption (CC) and political stability (PS) to measure the influence of good governance. Random effects, fixed effects, cluster random effects, cluster fixed effects and generalized method of moments (GMM) models were applied to a balanced panel dataset comprising eight SAARC countries over the period 2010–2021. To identify the random trend component in each variable, three renowned unit root tests (Levin, Lin and Chu LLC, Im-Pesaran-Shin IPS and Augmented Dickey-Fuller ADF) were used, and co-integration associations between variables were verified through the Pedroni and Kao approaches. Data analysis was performed using STATA 17 software.FindingsThe major findings revealed that the variables have an order of integration at the first difference I (1). Nonetheless, this situation suggests the possibility of a long-term link between the series. And the main results of the findings show that the coefficients of GDPG, CC and PS are positive and significant in the long run, showing that these variables boosted FDI inflows in the SAARC region as they are significantly positively linked to FDI inflows. Similarly, the coefficients of UR, IR, ER and COVID-19 are negative and significant.Practical implicationsBy identifying the specific impacts of the post-pandemic FDI and its determinants, governments and policymakers can formulate targeted policies and measures to mitigate the adverse effects and enhance investment attractiveness. Additionally, investors can gain a deeper understanding of the risk factors and adapt their strategies accordingly, ensuring resilience and sustainable growth. Finally, this paper adds value to the literature on the post-pandemic impact on FDI inflows in the SAARC region.Originality/valueThis paper is the first attempt to trace the impact of COVID-19 on Foreign Direct Investment and its determinants in the SAARC Countries. Most of the previous studies were analytical in nature and, if empirical, excluded some countries due to the unviability of the data set. This study includes all the SAARC member countries, and all variables' data are completely available. There is still a lack of empirical studies related to the SAARC region; this study attempts to fill the gap.

Linkages between ICT diffusion, renewable energy consumption, and carbon emissions: a comparative analysis of SAARC, MENA, and OECD countries.

This paper examines the linkages between information and communication technology (ICT) diffusion, renewable energy consumption (REC), and carbon (CO2) emissions across three distinct regions: the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations. We explore the causal pathways linking these variables and perform a comparative assessment of region-specific patterns with their policy implications. Utilizing a panel dataset of 28 countries from 1998 to 2019, we employ panel ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, and D-H causality tests. The comprehensive analysis of the sample reveals that ICT development enhances CO2 emissions, whereas REC reduces emissions. However, the comparative analysis suggests a positive linkage between ICT diffusion and CO2 emissions in MENA and OECD countries but a negative linkage in SAARC countries. Further, REC substantially reduces emissions in MENA and OECD countries but has an insignificant effect in SAARC countries. Our findings corroborate the first-order effect of ICT (negative environmental impact) in MENA and OECD countries, with contextual variations attributed to economic structure, financial sector growth, trade openness, and industrialization. These findings offer pivotal insights for policymakers to leverage ICT capabilities and REC to attain sustainable development and mitigate climate change consequences.

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in the SAARC Region

In recent years, demand for energy consumption has increased, especially in emerging countries such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member countries. This study thus aims to investigate the explicit relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the SAARC countries. The researchers employed panel econometric techniques using data for the period 2002-2020. The study used pooled OLS, fixed effect and GLS estimators for estimation purposes. The pivotal results of the work revealed that the nexus of energy consumption with per capita income is not only significant but also takes an inverted u-shaped. As research evidence in the SAARC region is limited, we expect policymakers working in the energy sector to benefit significantly from the results of this study. This work contributes to the limited empirical studies exploring the impact of energy consumption on economic growth specifically in the SAARC region, with interesting findings that provide important insights to the SAARC region on electricity consumption and per capita income.
 Keywords: energy consumption, economic growth, SAARC countries, panel data.

Day Level Forecasting for COVID-19 Pandemic Spread in SAARC Countries

The COVID-19 is declared a global epidemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Till now there is no effective medicine and vaccine is not available to treat COVID-19 and the genetic mutation capability of COVID-19 is very aggressive. Day-level knowledge of COVID-19 spread distribution is essential to measure the nature of the virus. The aim of this paper is two folds. Firstly, we compare the forecasting performance of three models namely Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Moving Average (MA) and Weighted Moving Average (WMA) for South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. Secondly, the best forecasting model is used to predict the day level number of infected case for SAARC countries. In this study we consider the daily infected case from March 08, 2020 to May 18, 2020. The empirical analysis showed that the SES model give beter forcasting performance for all of the SAARC countries based on graphical comparison as well as Mean Absolute Percentage Eorror (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE). The one month aheah forecast result of infected case for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives and Afghanistan will be 71702, 246726, 90926, 26, 1339, 1490, 2152 and 17934 respectively. Besides these we also shows the growth rate of the infected case based on Exponential and logarithmic scale. Having access to skilful daily updated forecast value of infected case could help better informed decision on how to manage the spread of COVID-19. International Journal of Statistical Sciences, Vol. 23(2), November, 2023, pp 129-142

Advancements in technology and innovation for sustainable agriculture: Understanding and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils

In recent decades, Technology and Innovation (TI) have shown tremendous potential for improving agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. However, the adoption and implementation of TI in the agricultural sector and its impact on the environment remain limited. To gain deeper insights into the significance of TI in enhancing agricultural productivity while maintaining environmental balance, this study investigates 21 agriculture-dependent Asian countries. Two machine learning techniques, LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) and Elastic-Net, are employed to analyze the data, which is categorized into three regional groups: ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), and GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). The findings of this study highlight the heterogeneous nature of technology adoption and its environmental implications across the three country groups. ASEAN countries emerge as proactive adopters of relevant technologies, effectively enhancing agricultural production while simultaneously upholding environmental quality. Conversely, SAARC countries exhibit weaker technology adoption, leading to significant fluctuations in environmental quality, which in turn impact agricultural productivity. Notably, agricultural emissions of N2O (nitrous oxide) and CO2 (carbon dioxide) in SAARC countries show a positive association with agricultural production, while CH4 (methane) emissions have an adverse effect. In contrast, the study reveals a lack of evidence regarding technological adoption in agriculture among GCC countries. Surprisingly, higher agricultural productivity in these countries is correlated with increased N2O emissions. Moreover, the results indicate that deforestation and expansion of cropland contribute to increased agricultural production; however, this expansion is accompanied by higher emissions related to agricultural activities. This research represents a pioneering empirical analysis of the impact of TI and environmental emission gases on agricultural productivity in the three aforementioned country groups. It underscores the imperative of embracing relevant technologies to enhance agricultural output while concurrently ensuring environmental sustainability. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in formulating strategies to promote sustainable agriculture and technological advancement in the context of diverse regional dynamics.

Transformative role of educational funding in shaping national development across SAARC countries in the 21st century: A panel NARDL approach

Since the beginning of this century, there has been evidence of a rise in educational funding among the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). However, there has been a decline in recent years despite South Asia being a highly populated and poverty-ridden region. Thus, the present study comes to assess how well the countries are doing in relation to the effect of educational funding on national development indicators, namely economic growth, human capital development, and the unemployment rate among the SAARC countries in the 21st century using Panel Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PNARDL) model formulated in Salisu and Isah (2017). The findings revealed that the impact of educational funding on economic growth and the unemployment rate is an asymmetry in the long run and symmetry in the short run but on the human development index, it is an asymmetry in both terms. However, educational funding is influencing economic growth in the long run, but in the short run is not. Furthermore, educational funding influences human capital development in both terms, but in the long run is negligible. Moreover, educational funding is negligibly discouraging the unemployment rate in both terms.

INDIA’S TRADE RELATIONS WITH OTHER SAARC NATIONS: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON TRENDS FROM 2014 TO 2021

In terms of South Asian institutions, SAARC is crucial. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is a political and economic group in the region. It is founding members-Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan-made it the largest regional organization on December 8, 1985. It has played a significant part in fostering closer ties between its member countries by organizing summits and conferences at a variety of levels. India plays a significant role as a SAARC member. Geographically and economically, India controls 70 percent of the SAARC region, while the other six member nations share borders only with India. In this study researcher highlights Indias trade relations with other SAARC economies. Researcher also examines India commercial ties to the other SAARC nations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data used in this article was collected from yearly reports made public by SAARC secretaries, which included numerical data acquired from those reports. The results indicate that during the Covid-19 outbreak, trade between India with the other SAARC members fall. The research indicates that the future has opportunities that are favorable for the progress of nations. KEYWORDS: SAARC Countries, South Asia, Covid-19, SAARC secretaries.

Impact of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy on EKC in SAARC Countries: Augmented Mean Group Approach

This study looks at the short- and long-term effects of fossil fuels, renewable energy, and nuclear energy on CO2 emissions in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries from 1982 to 2021. We assess the impacts of SAARC’s current and anticipated use of nuclear, fossil, and alternative energies by testing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The study applied the second-generation unit root test, cointegration test, and the newly introduced AMG technique to handle the presence of cross-sectional dependence. The results indicate that EKC does not hold in SAARC, and a U-shaped quadratic link exists between GDP and environmental pollution. The findings also reveal that the environmental pollution in the SAARC is caused by fossil fuel, whereas using renewable (REN) and nuclear energy can cut long-term pollution. While renewable energy is critical to minimizing environmental deterioration in SAARC, empirical findings also show that more than rising national wealth is needed to meet environmental demands. According to the results of this study, SAARC countries should take the lead in achieving sustainable growth and the efficient use of clean energy.

Does macroeconomic stability promote economic growth? Some econometric evidence from SAARC countries

PurposeThe main purpose of this research is to examine the influence of macroeconomic stability on economic growth of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries.Design/methodology/approachUsing panel data of 1991–2020, fixed effect regression analysis, pooled ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments techniques have been conducted to demonstrate whether macroeconomic stability contributes to economic growth. Moreover, cross-sectional dependency test, unit root test, correlation analysis and granger causality tests have been run.FindingsRobust findings indicate that inflation has negative impacts on economic growth which indicates that lower level of macroeconomic instability promotes countries’ economic growth. This study also observed that foreign direct investment, domestic credit delivered to private sector, currency exchange and institutional difference across countries are affirmatively connected while labor force is negatively associated with economic growth.Originality/valueEmpirical findings of this study signify that macroeconomic stability have significant effects on economic growth. Findings of this study have superior contributions for the policy makers to achieve sustainable economic growth.

A panel cointegration analysis of linkages between international trade and tourism: case of India and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries.

The study is undertaken to examine international trade and tourism nexus in case of India and SAARC countries. To achieve the objective, panel cointegration is employed over the period of 22years (1997 to 2018). The results from both first and second generation cointegration tests indicated the existence of long run equilibrium among tourism, export, and import. Albeit there are differences between short-term and long-term associations, the findings from autoregressive distributed lag approach indicates strong long-term linkages between trade and tourism. A possible channel of exports exerting a positive influence on tourist arrival is that the products in foreign markets increase the recognition and image of a country eventually leading to more tourists. Moreover, increased exports are expected to increase business trips further increasing the leisure trips and hence a strong linkage between export and tourism. On the other hand, a possible explanation of positive effect of imports on tourism could be that the destination countries which provide tourists with products according to their home taste encourage tourists to travel to these countries. The findings provided in the paper have strong implications for expanding India's tourism footprint in the region.

Status of mental health in South Asian countries

Status of mental health in South Asian countries

Managing the Pandemic in the South Asian (SAARC) Countries

This paper explores the coronavirus pandemic response from a South Asian perspective. When their case numbers were still relatively low, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries adopted lockdowns at the same time or before India did. On 24 March 2020, when there were just two confirmed cases, Nepal went into lockdown, and Sri Lanka locked down on 22 March, when there were 78 cases. India locked down the day after Nepal, with all countries imposing some form of restrictions on people’s movement. This paper draws its data from the first year of the pandemic that loomed in the SAARC nations. The regional cooperation provided by SAARC has allowed the sharing of resources and a strengthening of the region’s self-reliance. Notably, the commitment made by India to ensure its neighbours are supplied with vaccines, many of these donated. The eight-member SAARC states are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. This paper draws on the knowledge and perceptions of academics and social workers in the SAARC countries. It provides insight into the responses, impacts, vulnerabilities, and challenges faced by the region and in each specific country since the beginning of COVID-19. This paper also offers a discussion on vaccines, PPE, as well as the role of cooperation across the region. The relationship between India and the SAARC countries and its ‘neighbourhood first’ policy are also discussed.

A Comparative Study on Percentage of Women (Age 15–49) Attending at Least One Antenatal Care by Skilled Health Personnel in SAARC Countries (2015-2030)

Background: Antenatal care (ANC) plays an important role in reducing maternal morbidity and mortality. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is an economic and political organization of eight countries in South Asia. There is an unacceptably high burden of neonatal mortality and stillbirths in the SAARC region. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to estimate the percentage of at least one ANC visit from 2015 to 2030 from previously available data and to compare the progress among SAARC nations. Methodology: This is a secondary analysis study. Data indicating percentages of women attending at least one ANC by skilled health personnel in SAARC countries Maternal and newborn health coverage dataset-May 2021 by United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) was used. Regression Coefficient was used first to check the strength of the relationship for prediction at a 5 % significance level. Then, the percentages of ANC visits were predicted. To compare the percentages among countries, non-Parametric correlation Kendall’s tau was used. Findings: Results indicate that SAARC countries are struggling to reach at least one ANC visit. Comparison among these countries has shown no significant trend and it is concluded that there is no significant difference among SAARC countries' women ANC visits from 2015 to 2030 at a 5% significance level for all years. Practical Implications: The estimations of this research would help to develop innovative strategies for uplifting maternal health among SAARC countries to reach Sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Pharmacovigilance practices in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries: the need for collaboration

Abstract Objectives One-fifth of the world’s population lives in eight countries that constitute the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). There is very little coordination among SAARC countries regarding the harmonization of pharmaceutical regulations and medicines safety. Pakistan, India and Bangladesh have experienced medicine-related tragedies where many patients have died. This study aims to examine current pharmacovigilance activity in the SAARC region to improve pharmacovigilance practices and to make recommendations for building a platform for collaboration to improve the safety monitoring of medicines in the region. The current review utilized secondary data. We reviewed the official websites of all SAARC countries’ national regulatory authorities for pharmacovigilance-related information. A data set with eleven pharmacovigilance indicators were gathered and synthesized. Key findings All eight SAARC member countries have pharmacovigilance systems with full membership in the WHO Program for International Drug Monitoring. Out of eleven pharmacovigilance indicators, India met ten; Pakistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan nine; Maldives and Afghanistan seven; Nepal and Sri Lanka five. The SAARC countries do not have a harmonized pharmacovigilance system or centralized database. Due to positioning in different WHO regions, it is proposed to create a consortium on medicine safety among SAARC countries like other regional organizations of the world to strengthen the pharmacovigilance systems and harmonize the pharmacovigilance practices among member countries. Summary To improve the quality of medicines and to strengthen regional medicine safety, the SAARC secretariat should consider forming a technical group of all member countries’ regulatory authorities.

Exploring Poverty-tourism Nexus in South Asian Countries: A Panel Dynamic Estimation

Using the time series from World Bank (1995–2019), the present article explores the relationship between tourism inflow and poverty alleviation (per capita household consumption) within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region. The article employs three alternative approaches of PARDL, namely pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) and dynamic fixed effects (DFE) estimators. In addition, two substitute single-equation models, namely dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), are employed to estimate the long-run relationship between poverty alleviation, tourism inflow and other control variables. The results suggest that tourism inflow met the a priori expectation—positively influencing poverty alleviation within SAARC countries in the long run. Furthermore, poverty is reduced by increasing per capita income and output in the industry sector. Poverty can worsen due to an increase in the total trade of member countries. In addition, the findings indicate the insignificant impact of the agricultural sector on poverty alleviation and the unanimous effect of the service sector on poverty. Based on these findings present article frames various policy implications.

Machine learning and automatic ARIMA/Prophet models-based forecasting of COVID-19: methodology, evaluation, and case study in SAARC countries.

Machine learning (ML) has proved to be a prominent study field while solving complex real-world problems. The whole globe has suffered and continues suffering from Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and its projections need to be forecasted. In this article, we propose and derive an autoregressive modeling framework based on ML and statistical methods to predict confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. Automatic forecasting models based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Prophet time series structures, as well as extreme gradient boosting, generalized linear model elastic net (GLMNet), and random forest ML techniques, are introduced and applied to COVID-19 data from the SAARC countries. Different forecasting models are compared by means of selection criteria. By using evaluation metrics, the best and suitable models are selected. Results prove that the ARIMA model is found to be suitable and ideal for forecasting confirmed infected cases of COVID-19 in these countries. For the confirmed cases in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, the ARIMA model is superior to the other models. In Bhutan, the Prophet time series model is appropriate for predicting such cases. The GLMNet model is more accurate than other time-series models for Nepal and Pakistan. The random forest model is excluded from forecasting because of its poor fit.

1336P Epidemiology of rare cancers in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries: Remembering the forgotten

Rare cancers (RC) defined as those with incidence <6/100000 per population, constitute a significant proportion of cancers (∼20%) when considered collectively. Challenges in diagnosis, trial recruitment, and non-standardized treatment approaches result in inferior outcomes of RC. The current study aimed to map the epidemiology of RC in SAARC countries, compile the RC list, compare it with the internationally accepted RC list (RARECAREnet)and explore the RC trends based on age, gender, regional differences.