South African Gold Fields Research Articles

Statistical analysis of gold production in South Africa using ARIMA, VAR and ARNN modelling techniques: Extrapolating future gold production, Resources–Reserves depletion, and Implication on South Africa's gold exploration

South African gold mining is one of the main contributors to the country's economic growth and employment creation. Assessment of future gold production is pivotal for positioning the country's supply security and contribution to the projected global demand. In this study, we modelled and forecasted South African and global gold production trends (1990–2022) using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Vector Autoregressive (VAR), and Autoregressive Neural Network (ARNN) techniques. The study also evaluated the impact of annual productions on the collated reserves (2008–2021) and the contribution of resource–reserve conversion in sustaining gold reserves within the South African goldfields. The ARIMA (1,1,0) model, based on root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), outperformed both ARNN (1,1) and VAR (2) methods. The forecast of the ARIMA model showed an increase in South Africa's gold production, with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of ∼0.6%. The model also predicted an increase in global gold production, with CAGR of ∼2.2%. The analyses of reserves–production trends showed that most South African mining companies have been depleting their gold reserves due to production and were minimally converting resources to reserves, averaging at ∼2%/year from 2017 till present. The minimal conversion may also reflect the challenging mining conditions (such as mining depths and underground flooding) and the mining industry's socio-political dynamics. We demonstrated that, if the resource–reserve conversion factor is maintained (at ∼2%/year and above), the forecasted production may sustain the current reserves (at > 2000 t Au excluding tailings) but deplete ∼27 % of the resources to reserves by 2040. However, if the conversion factor continues to decline (to <1 %), the forecasted gold production will reduce the reserves to < 500 t Au with ∼3% of the resources converted to reserves.

Mapping and modelling human exposure to uraniferous mine waste using a GIS-supported virtual geographic environment

The exposure of residents to large volumes of uraniferous mine waste deposits scattered across densely populated areas in the South African goldfields has long been identified as a potential health threat. To quantify this threat for selected locations numerous studies determined concentration levels of uranium and other radionuclides in different environmental media of the Witwatersrand basin including streams, soils, tailings deposits, mine water effluents, fluvial sediments, aquatic organisms as well as in the food chain (fish, cattle, crops, vegetables etc.). This paper describes how the secondary data were extracted from various sources in order to map the spatial extent and intensity of uranium pollution in selected goldfields and to quantify associated exposure of residents. Steps included geo-referencing, normalisation against selected benchmark values, and superimposition of complementary data sets in GIS. For easing access to the data base for non-GIS experts a virtual geographic environment (VGE) was used, offering updated satellite imagery and additional functionality that aided in modelling exposure of target populations. Exposure pathways considered here include ingestion of polluted water, food and soil (geophagia) as well as the inhalation of wind-blown tailings dust. In addition, anecdotal evidence and media-based reports on mining-related pollution and impacts were captured. Maps derived from the VGE were used to identify hot spots of radioactive pollution aiding the selection of suitable sampling sites for a screening survey on U-uptake by exposed residents using hair as a bio-indicator.

Responses to mine downscaling: Evidence from secondary cities in the South African Goldfields

Mining has globally been a key catalyst in economic development. That said, as mines inevitably move from boom to bust, there are significant local consequences for the mining towns and their populations when downscaling occurs. Gold mining has played an important historical role in the development of South Africa. Two secondary cities that have been particularly affected are Matjhabeng (Free State province) and Matlosana (North-West Province). This paper, in that it is based on primary document analysis (basic data and qualitative interviews) and on secondary research, investigates the nature of mine downscaling, the resultant policy and economic responses to the downscaling and the associated economic restructuring that is currently occurring in two secondary cities in South Africa. It is the result of a mismatch between government support and what is really required at the local level, and moreover that the approach to social licensing in South Africa through social and labour plans does not assist in the creation of either collaborative planning. Mining has created some local benefits (refuting the theories of the resource curse and the Dutch disease) and that the two secondary cities are managing to buffer mine downscaling by means of performing regional service functions.

Gold Loses its Shine: Decline and Response in the South African Goldfields

Gold Loses its Shine: Decline and Response in the South African Goldfields

Marashea on the Mines: Economic, Social and Criminal Networks on the South African Gold Fields, 1947-1999

Since their emergence in the late 1940s, the predominantly Basotho gangs known as Marashea or Russians have maintained close links with mineworkers, especially those working on gold mines. These links intensified and the gangs became more dependent on the mines after the 1963 legislation which denied Basotho the right to work in South Africa other than in the agricultural and mining sectors. This legislation, combined with the opening of the Free State mines in the 1950s, resulted in the locus of Russian strength shifting from the Johannesburg area to the Western Transvaal and the Free State. The gangs divided into two distinct sections, those who worked and lived on the mines and the unemployed who lived in nearby locations and informal settlements. The mineworkers and 'loafers' developed a symbiotic relationship - the unemployed relied on mineworkers for financial support, while mineworkers depended on 'full-time' Russians for access to and control over women. During incidents of large-scale violence on the mines and in the surrounding areas, the two sections of each group united against outside antagonists. The Russians have managed to survive and flourish over the past fifty years because of the mutually supportive relationships the gangs have established between loafers and mineworkers. Their presence in mining communities has contributed to ethnic chauvinism, the regulation of migrant women and the establishment of social, economic and criminal networks that have bound segments of outside and compound communities more closely together.

An implosive component in the seismic moment tensor of a mining‐Induced tremor

In early 1988, a special study in one of the major South African gold fields yielded seismograms that indicate seismic moment tensors having substantial implosive components. The moment tensor, resulting from the inversion of the ground motion data from the best‐recorded event, was decomposed into isotropic and deviatoric components from which both the coseismic volumetric closure ΔV and the total shear deformation AD, where A is fault area and D is average slip, could be estimated. The finding here that ΔV ∼ AD is consistent with earlier analyses of how the tabular mine stopes interact with the surrounding rock mass to produce seismic deformation.

Review

Nuclear Power in the Developing World by Daniel Poneman George Allen and Unwin, London, 1982. 254 pp. including tables, figures, notes, bibliography and index. £14,95. Employment Policy in Developing Countries: A Survey of Issues and Evidence by Lyn Squire Oxford University Press, New York, 1981. xiii plus 229 pp. including tables, figures, references and index. R.16,95 paperback. Migration Decision‐Making: Multidisciplinary Approaches to Micro‐Level Studies in Developed and Developing Countries edited by Gordon F. de Jong and Robert W. Gardner Pergamon Press, New York, and Oxford, 1981. xii plus 394 pp. including tables, figures, bibliography and index. R.73,85. Cities, Poverty and Development: Urbanization in the Third World by Alan Gilbert and Josef Gugler Oxford University Press, London, 1984. viii plus 246 pp. including tables, figures, notes, bibliography and index. R.23,95 paperback. Urban Dynamics in Black Africa: An Interdisciplinary Approach by William J. Hanna and Judith L. Hanna Aldine Publishing Co., New York, 1981. viii plus 260 pp. including map, tables, figures, illustrations, bibliography and index. $19,95. No Shortcuts to Progress: African Development Management in Perspective by Goran Hyden Heinemann, London, 1983. xv plus 223 pp. including tables, figures, notes and index. £4,95 paperback. African Philosophy: Myth and Reality by Paulin J. Hountondji Hutchinson, London, 1983. 221 pp. including notes, references and index. R.32,75 paperback. The African City by Anthony O'Connor Hutchinson, London, 1983. 359 pp. including figures, tables, diagrams, bibliography and index. $27,50. $17,50 paperback. A History of Nigeria by Elizabeth Isichei Longman, London, 1983. xix plus 517 pp. including illustrations, maps, tables, figures, appendix, bibliography and index. £19,95. £7,95 paperback. Politics and Class Formation in Uganda by Mahmood Mamdani Heinemann, London, 1976. viii plus 339 pp. including notes, tables, bibliography and index. £2,90 paperback. Maternal and Child Health in Rural Kenya: An Epidemiological Study edited by J.K. van Ginneken and A.S. Muller Croom Helm, London, 1984. 383 pp. including illustrations, tables, references and index. £15,95. The Road to Zimbabwe: 1890–1980 by Anthony Verrier Jonathan Cape, London, 1986. 364 pp. including map, notes and index. £16,00. A Peace in Southern Africa: The Lancaster House Conference on Rhodesia, 1979 by Jeffrey Davidow Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), 1984. 143 pp. including notes, bibliography and index. $22,00. Botswana's Economy since Independence edited by M.A. Oommen, F.K. Inganji and L.D. Ngcongco Tata McGraw‐Hill Publishing Co., New Delhi, 1983. xx plus 321 pp. including tables, bibliography and index. No price available. Kings, Commoners and Concessionaires: The Evolution and Dissolution of the Nineteenth‐Century Swazi State by Philip Bonner Cambridge University Press, and Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1983. viii plus 315 pp. including maps, figures, notes, appendix, bibliography and index. R15,95 paperback. The Diplomacy of Isolation: South Africa's Foreign Policy‐Making by Deon Geldenhuys Macmillan, Johannesburg, 1984. iii plus 295 pp. including notes and index. Ri 30,00. Studies on Urbanization in South Africa edited by E.A. Kraayenbrink South African Institute of Race Relations, Johannesburg, 1984. vi plus g6 pp. including tables and notes. R5,95 paperback. The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labour on the South African Goldfields, 1902–1939 by David Yudelman Greenwood Press, Westport (Connecticut) and London, and David Philip, Cape Town, 1983. xvi plus 315 pp. including figures, tables, bibliography and index. R46,50. South Africa at War: White Power and the Crisis in Southern Africa by Richard Leonard Lawrence Hill and Co., Westport (Connecticut), 1983. x plus 280 pp. including notes, appendices and index. R3i,35 paperback. Rural Development in South Africa: A Case Study of the Amatola Basin in the Ciskei edited by Chris de Wet and Simon Bekker Shuter and Shooter, Pietermaritzburg, 1985. xiv plus 165 pp. including tables, figures, maps, bibliography and index. R25,00 paperback. Call Me Not A Man by Mtutuzeli Matshoba Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1979. x plus 198 pp. R4,95 paperback. Anthem of the Decades: A Zulu Epic by Mazisi Kunene Heinemann, London, 1981. xi plus 312 pp. £3,50 paperback.

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labour on the South African Gold Fields, 1902-1939

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labour on the South African Gold Fields, 1902-1939

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902-1939

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902-1939

Book Reviews

Book reviews in this article:EARL, P. E. The Economic Imagination ‐ Towards a behavioural analysis of choiceESHAG. E. Fiscal and Monetary Policies and Problems in Developing CountriesKINDLEBERGER, C. P. A Financial History of Western EuropeLECAILLON, J, et al. Income Distribution and Economic DevelopmentSHONFIELD, A. In Defence of the Mixed EconomySTEIN, L. Trade and Structural ChangeYUDELMAN. D. The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labour on the South African Gold Fields, 1902–1929

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902–1939

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902–1939

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902-1939

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902-1939

David Yudelman. &lt;italic&gt;The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902–1939&lt;/italic&gt;. (Contributions in Comparative Colonial Studies, number 13.) Westport, Conn.: Greenwood. 1983. Pp. xvi, 315. $35.00

David Yudelman. &lt;italic&gt;The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902–1939&lt;/italic&gt;. (Contributions in Comparative Colonial Studies, number 13.) Westport, Conn.: Greenwood. 1983. Pp. xvi, 315. $35.00

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902-1939, by David Yudelman

<i>The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902-1939</i>, by David Yudelman

Yudelman's state‐capital symbiosis

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital and the Incorporation of Organized Labour on the South African Gold Fields, 1902–1939 (David Philip, Cape Town, 1984). Price: hardback, R45; paperback approximately R16.)

A computer model of circulating service water in South African gold mines

Since there is a general shortage of water on the South African goldfields, the re-use and recycling of water in mines is necessary. Water quality deteriorates with recycling and the reasons and extent of deterioration were researched. A large proportion of the inorganic salts appearing in solution in the water appear to originate from the ore. High sulphate concentrations in particular are noticed in the water after a few cycles. The water becomes unusable unless replaced or purified after a few days. Laboratory and field leaching tests were performed to determine the factors affecting the deterioration in water quality. The data was used in a computer simulation model to predict water quality at any time throughout a typical water distribution system underground. The computer model can be used to optimize the re-use of water and predict effects of different management policies.

Beyond musical chairs in the power bloc

The Emergence of Modern South Africa State, Capital and the Incorporation of Organised Labor on the South African Gold Fields, 1902–1939, by David Yudel‐man, Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press, 1983, 315 pp.

The importance of the time factor in the measurement of dust exposure.

Measurements of dust concentrations for the estimation of the danger of pneumoconiosis have been carried out in various industries for many years. In some, such as the South African gold fields, they have been made regularly for nearly 40 years, while in others, such as the British coal-mines, regular dust sampling on a national scale has only been carried on for about five years. In other industries again, such as foundries, normally only occasional samples are taken in an attempt to make some estimate of the likely danger of pneumo coniosis. In all this work the main emphasis has been placed on the factor of concentration and little is heard of the possible importance of the duration of exposure. It is the purpose of this paper to attempt to, arrive at an estimate of the relative importance of these two factors, since such an estimate is essential for the proper planning of dust sampling and dust suppression procedures. It must be emphasized that the discussion is concerned only with dusts which are of such low solubility that, if they are dissolved at all, their rate of solution is very low compared with their rate of inhalation and deposition in the lung. Examples of such dusts are quartz and coal, which between them produce most of the serious cases of pneumoconiosis in this country (Ministry of National Insurance, 1952). For the purpose of this discussion we shall assume, as a first approximation, that the severity of a pneumoconiosis due to a particular dust will be dependent upon the amount of that dust in the lungs. This is obviously not entirely true, but it is necessary to make some assumptions in order to be able to define the problem. Such evidence as exists (Badham