Sources Of Macroeconomic Fluctuations Research Articles

New evidence on sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub‐Saharan African countries

AbstractFollowing a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach, this paper presents new evidence on the validity of international transmission of economic shocks from key trading partners as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. The GVAR model was estimated for 21 SSA countries grouped into three country classes—oil‐rich, other‐resources‐rich and non‐resource‐based economies, to account for output shocks from crucial trading partner countries—United States, United Kingdom, China and Europe. Furthermore, the generalized forecast error variance decompositions results reveal that output shocks from key trading partners constitute significant contributors to changes in key macroeconomic indicators—real gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate and short‐term interest rate, in the SSA region. The generalized impulse response functions indicate that these economic shocks have more significant impacts on oil‐rich countries than on other country groups. A key recommendation from this study is that SSA countries, especially the resource‐rich economies, need to strengthen and diversify their economic structure, including the trade basket.

ON THE EXPECTATIONAL STABILITY OF RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS EQUILIBRIA IN NEWS-SHOCK DSGE MODELS

The expectational stability (E-stability) property of rational expectations equilibria (REE) in linear macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models is known to be sensitive to the information available to decision makers as well as the structure of the economic environment considered. Models featuring news shocks as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations depart from traditional assumptions regarding both the structure of the economy and the information set of agents. This paper investigates whether E-stability of REE is affected by either the inclusion of news shocks by themselves or the complementary structural changes. The main results find that the E-stability property of REE is robust to the inclusion (or exclusion) of news shocks and that well-known news-shock DSGE models permit REE which are simultaneously E-stable and capable of producing qualitatively realistic expectationally driven business cycles.

How the oil price and other factors of real exchange rate dynamics affect real GDP in Russia

ABSTRACT This article studies the main sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Russia. We use SVARX approach with long-run restrictions to identify an oil price shock, a nominal shock and two types of productivity shocks. A specific Balassa–Samuelson-type productivity shock differs from a general productivity shock in its ability to affect real exchange rate in the long run. We found that the Balassa–Samuelson-type shocks account for a significant part (about a half of all fluctuations) of real exchange rate movements, which also affected real GDP dynamics. Oil price dynamics was the most important source of real GDP and real exchange rate fluctuations, but our alternative specification says that global demand shocks seem to be responsible for more fluctuations of Russian GDP than oil market–specific shocks.

SOURCES OF MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

This paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Brunei Darussalam from 2003Q1 to 2014Q3 using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Shocks are identified by imposing block exogeneity and long-run restrictions motivated by an open economy model that includes oil prices. The results show that oil price shocks account for only a small proportion of output fluctuations while productivity shocks have the largest share. Real exchange rate movements are largely driven by demand shocks while monetary shocks explain most of the variability in prices. Economic policies should focus on productivity improvement and capital investment to increase output in the long run, and the conduct of fiscal policy should take into account the impact on real exchange rate volatility.

Microeconomic Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Shocks

In this essay, we discuss the emerging literature in macroeconomics that combines heterogeneous agent models, nominal rigidities, and aggregate shocks. This literature opens the door to the analysis of distributional issues, economic fluctuations, and stabilization policies—all within the same framework. In response to the limitations of the representative agent approach to economic fluctuations, a new framework has emerged that combines key features of heterogeneous agents (HA) and New Keynesian (NK) economies. These HANK models offer a much more accurate representation of household consumption behavior and can generate realistic distributions of income, wealth, and, albeit to a lesser degree, household balance sheets. At the same time, they can accommodate many sources of macroeconomic fluctuations, including those driven by aggregate demand. In sum, they provide a rich theoretical framework for quantitative analysis of the interaction between cross-sectional distributions and aggregate dynamics. In this article, we outline a state-of-the-art version of HANK together with its representative agent counterpart, and convey two broad messages about the role of household heterogeneity for the response of the macroeconomy to aggregate shocks: 1) the similarity between the Representative Agent New Keynesian (RANK) and HANK frameworks depends crucially on the shock being analyzed; and 2) certain important macroeconomic questions concerning economic fluctuations can only be addressed within heterogeneous agent models.

ENDOGENOUS CREDIT AND INVESTMENT CYCLES WITH ASSET PRICE VOLATILITY

It is commonly accepted that credit market frictions are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. But what is the link between the two? And what is the driving factor of asset prices volatility? To answer these questions, we have introduced a specific credit friction, limited commitment, in a general equilibrium model with production and investment in productive capital, where agents can trade bonds. The model always displays a stationary equilibrium where bonds are traded. More importantly, limited commitment may generate stochastic endogenous fluctuations driven by self-fulfilling volatile expectations (sunspots), yielding credit and investment cycles and bond price volatility consistent with data.

The effects of macroeconomic shocks on the Brunei economy: a sign restriction approach

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the impact of oil price, foreign monetary policy, and domestic government spending shocks on the Brunei economy from 2003Q1 to 2014Q3 based on a structural vector autoregression model with shocks identified using the sign restriction methodology. The results show that an unanticipated oil price decline has a negative effect on government expenditure, and consequently non-oil GDP. Foreign monetary policy shocks also affect the economy through their impact on the interest rate, prices, and the real exchange rate. The procyclical fiscal stance, which exacerbates the business cycle, is an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Government expenditure smoothing should be accorded high importance in the conduct of fiscal policy. This could be achieved by using oil reserve funds to finance budget deficits to delink government spending from volatile oil revenue.

Macroeconomic shocks and the forward yield curve: how important is monetary policy?

The associations between macroeconomic fluctuations and the yield curve tend to be explained by the reactions of the monetary authority. This paper evaluates how macroeconomics shocks affect the forward yield curve for domestic and foreign debt markets in Venezuela, where monetary policy is not the main source of macroeconomic fluctuations. As previous results in the literature, macroeconomic shocks affect more strongly the short end of the yield curve in the expected direction. Overall, supply shocks explain most of the variability of long-term yields, spread and volatility. Nonetheless, short-term yield movements can be associated with general monetary conditions of the economy and not necessarily with monetary policy actions.

Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA

We analyze the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in the emerging countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model economy captures some important structural characteristics of the MENA countries and is able to replicate the main properties of their business cycles. The results suggest that a substantial fraction of cyclical fluctuations in the MENA countries is explained by terms of trade shocks. In particular, these shocks account for more than 60 percent of the variation in aggregate output. They also explain the bulk of cyclical fluctuations in aggregate consumption. Domestic productivity shocks explain close to 40 percent of business cycle variation in aggregate output. While government spending shocks and world interest shocks are also important in accounting for the volatility of business cycles in certain macroeconomic variables, their overall impact on the dynamics of aggregate output appears to be relatively small.

Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching DSGE Approach

We examine the sources of macroeconomic economic fluctuations by estimating a variety of medium-scale DSGE models within a unified framework that incorporates regime switching both in shock variances and in the inflation target. Our general framework includes a number of different model features studied in the literature. We propose an efficient methodology for estimating regime-switching DSGE models. The model that best fits the U.S. time-series data is the one with synchronized shifts in shock variances across two regimes and the fit does not rely on strong nominal rigidities. We find little evidence of changes in the inflation target. We identify three types of shocks that account for most of macroeconomic fluctuations: shocks to total factor productivity, wage markup, and the capital depreciation rate.

Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching DSGE Approach

We examine the sources of macroeconomic economic fluctuations by estimating a variety of medium-scale DSGE models within a unified framework that incorporates regime switching both in shock variances and in the inflation target. Our general framework includes a number of different model features studied in the literature. We propose an efficient methodology for estimating regime-switching DSGE models. The model that best fits the U.S. time-series data is the one with synchronized shifts in shock variances across two regimes and the fit does not rely on strong nominal rigidities. We find little evidence of changes in the inflation target. We identify three types of shocks that account for most of macroeconomic fluctuations: shocks to total factor productivity, wage markup, and the capital depreciation rate.

Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Volatile Small Open Economy

This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in a typical small open economy, Turkey, using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The study finds that supply‐side shocks are the main source of output fluctuations in the long run, explaining almost half the variance of domestic output. However, most of the short‐run variability in domestic output is dominated by relative demand shocks. Aggregate demand shocks do not appear to play any significant role in output fluctuations in the long run. Changes in fiscal policy play a moderate role in determining the real exchange rate in the short term, while changes in world output and prices of imported inputs are the major determinants of the long‐term real exchange rate. The long‐run price variations are mainly due to oil price and world output shocks.

An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia*

An open economy New Keynesian policy model for Australia is estimated in this study. We investigate how important external shocks are as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations when compared to domestic ones. The results of our analysis suggest that the Australian business cycle and domestic inflation are most affected by domestic demand and supply shocks, respectively. However, domestic output also appears to be strongly affected by foreign demand shocks and domestic inflation by exchange rate shocks. Domestic variables do not seem to be significantly affected by foreign supply and monetary policy shocks.

Foreign Versus Domestic Factors as Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Hong Kong

This paper uses a semi-structural vector autoregression approach to estimate the relative importance of domestic and foreign shocks as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Hong Kong since the adoption of the currency board. We find that external factors are clearly dominant in the medium to long run. In view of the highly open nature of the Hong Kong economy and the linkages implied by the currency board arrangement, it is perhaps not unexpected. However, that these factors should account for fifty percent or more of unexpected fluctuations in real GDP and the GDP deflator at shorter horizons of one to two years is more surprising, and it is large in comparisons with other highly open small economies. Even if external shocks are dominant sources of macroeconomic fluctuations, there remain significant short-term influences of domestic variables. For example, in the historical decomposition of the evolution of output growth and inflation we discovered a significant role for domestic factors in the recent recession. Their impact resembles very much those that would be generated by a conventional aggregate supply contraction. A challenge for future research is to identity empirically the exact sources of the domestic shocks.

What accounts for China's trade balance dynamics?

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldós, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213–239] and Prasad [Prasad, E. S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588–606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade ‘imbalance’.

Correcting China's trade imbalance: Monetary means will not suffice

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldós, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213–239] and Prasad [Prasad, E.S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588–606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade ‘imbalance’.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Saharan Africa are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non-CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.

Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Newly Industrialized Economies: A Common Trends Approach

Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Newly Industrialized Economies: A Common Trends Approach

Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub–Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non–CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub–Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non–CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.