Solar-terrestrial Connection Research Articles

A preliminary investigation of the empirical relationship between small-amplitude Forbush Decreases and solar wind disturbances

ABSTRACTHigh-magnitude (amplitude $\le -3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) Forbush decreases (FDs) are generally employed by researchers investigating the solar-terrestrial connection mechanisms. Although it has been observed that small-amplitude FDs are relatively important as they may be the outcome of the response of cosmic ray time-intensity variations to solar ejections that generate interplanetary and solar wind plasma disturbances, empirical relations between weak FDs and solar-terrestrial parameters are rarely tested. In an attempt to analyse the suggested strong connections between weak FDs and solar-terrestrial phenomena, we employed some comparatively more efficient, accurate, and highly sensitive versions of the recently developed computer FD event selection software. Large catalogues of low-amplitude (FD(per cent) ≥−3) Forbush events were selected from Apatity, Moscow, Newark, and Oulu NMs. These catalogues allow us to test, for the first time, the empirical relations between small-amplitude FDs and solar wind data. We find significant negative correlations between solar wind speed (SWS) and the small FDs at OULU, NWRK, and MOSC stations. While the relation at OULU is strong and statistically significant at 95 per cent confidence level, the weak correlation at NWRK and MOSC is only significant at a 90 per cent level. The negative correlation between the small events at OULU and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is also significant at the a 95 per cent level. The relation between SWS and IMF and high-amplitude FDs were also tested, and the correlation coefficients were negative, strong, and statistically significant at a 99.9 per cent level of significance.

A STUDY OF LONG-TERM SUNSPOTS AND K-INDEX GEOMETRIC CYCLES USING PROBABILISTIC MODELING

The research work done in this paper comprises the application of different well-known probability distribution models. This includes the understanding of the behavior and dynamics of 24 sunspot cycles with total data. The time-series data sets were selected from 1749 to 2014. To observe the solar activity effects on K-index activity the double cycles from 1932 to 2014 were also incorporated in the study. The comparative study is useful to observe the long-term solar-terrestrial connection. The magnetic field of the sun reverses its polarity after every 11 years of the cycle. So after every 22 years, the north pole becomes again north pole. By using the two well-known tests Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KST) and Anderson-Darling test (ADT) the probability distribution models were obtained for each sunspot cycles and compare. The significant probability models for all the sunspot cycles have been obtained. The fitted probability distribution models on selected data sets may be useful to understand the trend of solar and geomagnetic activity.

The Great Aurora of 4 February 1872 observed by Angelo Secchi in Rome

Observation of auroras at low latitudes is an extremely rare event typically associated with major magnetic storms due to intense Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections. Since these energetic events represent one of the most important components of space weather, their study is of paramount importance to understand the Sun-Earth connection. Due to the rarity of these events, being able to access all available information for the few cases studied is equally important. Especially if we refer to historical periods in which current accurate observations from ground-based instruments or space were not available. Certainly, among these events, we must include the great aurora of February 4, 1872. An event whose effects have been observed in different regions of the Earth. What we could consider today a global event, especially for its effects on the communication systems of the time, such as the transatlantic cable that allowed a connection between the United States and Europe since 1866. In this paper, we describe the main results of the observations and studies carried out by Angelo Secchi at the Observatory of the Roman College and described in hisMemoria sull’Aurora Elettrica del 4 Febbraio 1872for the Notes of the Pontifical Academy of new Lincei. This note is extremely modern both in its multi-instrumental approach to the study of these phenomena and in its association between solar-terrestrial connection and technological infrastructures on the Earth. The Secchi’s note definitely represents the first example of analysis and study of an event on a global scale, such as the Atlantic cable, affecting the Earth. What we nowadays call an extreme space weather event.

Do Solar Cycles Share Spectral Properties with Tropical Cyclones that Occur in the Western North Pacific Ocean?

Understanding solar influences on extreme weather is important. Insight into the causes of extreme weather events, including the solar-terrestrial connection, would allow better preparation for these events and help minimize the damage caused by disasters that threaten the human population. In this study, we examined category three, four, and five tropical cyclones that occurred in the western North Pacific Ocean from 1977 to 2016. We compared long-term trends in the positions of tropical cyclone occurrence and development with variations of the observed sunspot area, the solar North-South asymmetry, and the southern oscillation index (SOI). We found that tropical cyclones formed, had their maximum intensity, and terminated more northward in latitude and more westward in longitude over the period analyzed; they also became stronger during that period. It was found that tropical cyclones cannot be correlated or anti-correlated with the solar cycle. No evidence showing that properties (including positions of occurrence/development and other characteristics) of tropical cyclones are modulated by solar activity was found, at least not in terms of a spectral analysis using the wavelet transform method.

Investigation of solar-terrestrial connection and near-Earth plasma with the use of small spacecrafts

Investigation of solar-terrestrial connection and near-Earth plasma with the use of small spacecrafts

Recent progress in MHD simulations of the solar-terrestrial connection

Recent progress in MHD simulations of the solar-terrestrial connection

AUTOMATIC DETECTION ALGORITHM OF DYNAMIC PRESSURE PULSES IN THE SOLAR WIND

Dynamic pressure pulses (DPPs) in the solar wind are a significant phenomenon closely related to the solar-terrestrial connection and physical processes of solar wind dynamics. In order to automatically identify DPPs from solar wind measurements, we develop a procedure with a three-step detection algorithm that is able to rapidly select DPPs from the plasma data stream and simultaneously define the transition region where large dynamic pressure variations occur and demarcate the upstream and downstream region by selecting the relatively quiet status before and after the abrupt change in dynamic pressure. To demonstrate the usefulness, efficiency, and accuracy of this procedure, we have applied it to the Wind observations from 1996 to 2008 by successfully obtaining the DPPs. The procedure can also be applied to other solar wind spacecraft observation data sets with different time resolutions.

Drought over Seoul and Its Association with Solar Cycles

We have investigated drought periodicities occurred in Seoul to find out any indication of relationship between drought in Korea and solar activities. It is motivated, in view of solar-terrestrial connection, to search for an example of extreme weather condition controlled by solar activity. The periodicity of drought in Seoul has been re-examined using the wavelet transform technique as the consensus is not achieved yet. The reason we have chosen Seoul is because daily precipitation was recorded for longer than 200 years, which meets our requirement that analyses of drought frequency demand long-term historical data to ensure reliable estimates. We have examined three types of time series of the Effective Drought Index (EDI). We have directly analyzed EDI time series in the first place. And we have constructed and analyzed time series of histogram in which the number of days whose EDI is less than -1.5 for a given month of the year is given as a function of time, and one in which the number of occasions where EDI values of three consecutive days are all less than -1.5 is given as a function of time. All the time series data sets we analyzed are periodic. Apart from the annual cycle due to seasonal variations, periodicities shorter than the 11 year sunspot cycle, ~ 3, ~ 4, ~ 6 years, have been confirmed. Periodicities to which theses short periodicities (shorter than Hale period) may be corresponding are not yet known. Longer periodicities possibly related to Gleissberg cycles, ~ 55, ~ 120 years, can be also seen. However, periodicity comparable to the 11 year solar cycle seems absent in both EDI and the constructed data sets.

Is there a planetary influence on solar activity?

Context. Understanding the Sun’s magnetic activity is important because of its impact on the Earth’s environment. Direct observations of the sunspots since 1610 reveal an irregular activity cycle with an average period of about 11 years, which is modulated on longer timescales. Proxies of solar activity such as 14 C and 10 Be show consistently longer cycles with well-defined periodicities and varying amplitudes. Current models of solar activity assume that the origin and modulation of solar activity lie within the Sun itself; however, correlations between direct solar activity indices and planetary configurations have been reported on many occasions. Since no successful physical mechanism was suggested to explain these correlations, the possible link between planetary motion and solar activity has been largely ignored. Aims. While energy considerations clearly show that the planets cannot be the direct cause of the solar activity, it remains an open question whether the planets can perturb the operation of the solar dynamo. Here we use a 9400 year solar activity reconstruction derived from cosmogenic radionuclides to test this hypothesis.Methods. We developed a simple physical model for describing the time-dependent torque exerted by the planets on a non-spherical tachocline and compared the corresponding power spectrum with that of the reconstructed solar activity record. Results. We find an excellent agreement between the long-term cycles in proxies of solar activity and the periodicities in the planetary torque and also that some periodicities remain phase-locked over 9400 years.Conclusions. Based on these observations we put forward the idea that the long-term solar magnetic activity is modulated by planetary effects. If correct, our hypothesis has important implications for solar physics and the solar-terrestrial connection.

The solar origins of the Sun-Earth connection events on April 1999 and February 2000

In this work we present a comparison between the solar origins of two solar-terrestrial connection events occurring on April 1999 and February 2000, respectively. On April 13 (1999), a coronal mass ejection (CME) appeared for the first time in LASCO-C2 coronagraph field of view at 03:30 UT. The possible solar disc source of this CME was located at coordinates N25 E05, and it consisted on flaring activity together with a filament eruption as seen in EIT images. The geomagnetic storm with a Dst peak of -91 nT registered on April, 17 was attributed to this solar surface activity. On February 8, 9 and 10 (2000) three Earth-directed halo CMEs were recorded by LASCO coronagraphs. The interaction of two of them caused the intense interplanetary geomagnetic storm registered on February 12 (Dst = -110 nT). The CMEs detected on February 8 and 10 were launched from AR 8858 and the source of the activity was attributed to two solar flares of X-ray class M1.3 and C7.3 respectively. The CME detected on February 9 was originated in AR 8853 and flaring activity was also identified as the solar source for this event. In this study we discuss the solar origins of the events that gave rise to coronal and interplanetary disturbances and as a consequence produced geomagnetic activity at the Earth. This work is part of a complete study that is searching the solar origin, the interplanetary aspects and the magnetospheric effects of these events.

The Influence of Solar Activity and Cosmic Rays on Terrestrial Clouds and Global Warming

We analyse the new ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) D2 cloud data to ascertain whether or not a connection between cosmic ray flux and cloud cover exists. Our results indicate that only the low-level cloud follows solar activity over the full period, 1983-1994. Using several proxies for solar activity and the radiative forcing for the ISCCP cloud types, we estimate the possible impact that such a solar-terrestrial connection may have on climate. We conclude that, possibly excluding the most recent decades, much of the warming of the past century can be quantitatively accounted for by the direct and indirect effects of solar activity.

The influence of cosmic rays on terrestrial clouds and global warming

We analyse the new ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) D2 cloud data to ascertain if a connection between cosmic-ray flux and cloud cover exists. Despite a previous finding that total-cloud factor and cosmic-ray fluxes were correlated, our results indicate that only the low-level cloud follows solar activity over the full period, 1983–94. Using several proxies for solar activity and the radiative forcing calculated by Ockert-Bell (1992) for the ISCCP cloud types, we estimate the possible impact that such a solar–terrestrial connection may have on climate. We conclude that, possibly excluding the most recent decades, much of the warming of the past century can be quantitatively accounted for by the direct and indirect effects of solar activity.

A far ultraviolet imager for the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics Mission

The aurorae are the result of collisions with the atmosphere of energetic particles that have their origin in the solar wind, and reach the atmosphere after having undergone varying degrees of acceleration and redistribution within the Earth's magnetosphere. The global scale phenomenon represented by the aurorae therefore contains considerable information concerning the solar-terrestrial connection. For example, by correctly measuring specific auroral emissions, and with the aid of comprehensive models of the region, we can infer the total energy flux entering the atmosphere and the average energy of the particles causing these emissions. Furthermore, from these auroral emissions we can determine the ionospheric conductances that are part of the closing of the magnetospheric currents through the ionosphere, and from these we can in turn obtain the electric potentials and convective patterns that are an essential element to our understanding of the global magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere. Simultaneously acquired images of the auroral oval and polar cap not only yield the temporal and spatial morphology from which we can infer activity indices, but in conjunction with simultaneous measurements made on spacecraft at other locations within the magnetosphere, allow us to map the various parts of the oval back to their source regions in the magnetosphere. This paper describes the Ultraviolet Imager for the Global Geospace Sciences portion of the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics program. The instrument operates in the far ultraviolet (FUV) and is capable of imaging the auroral oval regardless of whether it is sunlit or in darkness. The instrument has an 8° circular field of view and is located on a despun platform which permits simultaneous imaging of the entire oval for at least 9 hours of every 18 hour orbit. The three mirror, unobscured aperture, optical system (f/2.9) provides excellent imaging over this full field of view, yielding a per pixel angular resolution of 0.6 milliradians. Its FUV filters have been designed to allow accurate spectral separation of the features of interest, thus allowing quantitative interpretation of the images to provide the parameters mentioned above. The system has been designed to provide ten orders of magnitude blocking against longer wavelength (primarily visible) scattered sunlight, thus allowing the first imaging of key, spectrally resolved, FUV diagnostic features in the fully sunlit midday aurorae. The intensified-CCD detector has a nominal frame rate of 37 s, and the fast optical system has a noise equivalent signal within one frame of ∼ 10R. The instantaneous dynamic range is >1000 and can be positioned within an overall gain range of 104, allowing measurement of both the very weak polar cap emissions and the very bright aurora. The optical surfaces have been designed to be sufficiently smooth to permit this dynamic range to be utilized without the scattering of light from bright features into the weaker features. Finally, the data product can only be as good as the degree to which the instrument performance is characterized and calibrated. In the VUV, calibration of an an imager intended for quantitative studies is a task requiring some pioneering methods, but it is now possible to calibrate such an instrument over its focal plane to an accuracy of ±10%. In summary, very recent advances in optical, filter and detector technology have been exploited to produce an auroral imager to meet the ISTP objectives.