Solar Modulation Potential Research Articles

Forecasting the solar modulation potential: Tests of time series models

This study analyzes the predictability of the solar modulation potential using time series models. Recently, new data sets for the modulation potential have become available, at daily, monthly, and annual resolutions. At lower frequencies, the data show the well-known 11-22-year cycle. Both the periodicity and amplitude vary over time. At higher resolutions, the probability distribution has heavy tails, while the data show the intermittent outliers characteristic of multifractal processes. Forecasting experiments are run using regressions in levels and differences, frequency domain methods, models with sinusoidal terms and neural networks. For the daily data, all the models achieve high degrees of accuracy at proximate horizons. As the horizon extends, accuracy falls away rapidly. At 27 days, corresponding to one solar rotation, a transfer function in differences achieves a more accurate forecast than either regressions or neural nets, since it is able to replicate the range of the data. At the annual resolution, both the regression and neural net predict well at horizons of 1 year. Again, forecast accuracy deteriorates sharply as the forecast horizon extends. At the monthly resolution, forecasting is problematic. The resolution is not low enough to bring out the low frequency cycles, but there is so much short-term dependence that the data are completely dominated by serial correlation. Any model incorporating proximate lags will generate inertial forecasts. Any model using lower frequency cyclical terms will be unable to pick up on near-term patterns. The forecasting skill of time series models appears limited to short horizons. The recommendation for forecasting over longer intervals is some combination of physics and statistical models.

Time-variable diffuse γ-ray foreground

ABSTRACT While the data analysis of γ-ray telescopes has now become more robust, some signals may be misinterpretations of a time-variable foreground emission from the Solar system, induced by low-energy cosmic-ray interactions with asteroids. Our goal is to provide emission templates for this time-variable diffuse γ-ray foreground by considering the populations of Main Belt Asteroids, Jovian and Neptunian Trojans, Kuiper Belt Objects, and the Oort Cloud. We model the spatial distribution of all known asteroids by performing 3D-fits to determine their density profiles and calculate their appearances by line-of-sight integrations. Because Earth and the asteroids are moving with respect to each other, we obtain diffuse emission templates varying on time-scales of days to decades. We find that the temporal variability can lead to flux enhancements that may mimic emission features unless properly taken into account. This variation is further enhanced by the Solar cycle as the cosmic-ray spectrum is attenuated by the Solar modulation potential, leading to a relative flux increase of the outer asteroids. The cumulative effect of the time-dependent emission is illustrated for the case of the ‘511 keV OSSE fountain’, and for emission features near the Galactic Centre, both being possible misinterpretations of the Solar system albedo. We recommend that γ-ray data analyses should always take into account the possibility of a time-variable foreground. Due to the ecliptic overlap with the Galactic plane, the Galactic emission is expected to be weaker by 0.1–20 per cent, depending on time (relative planetary motion), energy, and Solar cycle, which has consequences for the interpretation of dark matter annihilation cross sections, cosmic-ray spectra and amplitudes, as well as nucleosynthesis yields and related parameters.

Constraining primordial black holes as dark matter using AMS-02 data

Primordial black holes (PBHs) are the plausible candidates for the cosmological dark matter. Theoretically, PBHs with masses MPBH\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$M_{\ extrm{PBH}}$$\\end{document} in the range of 4×1014∼1017g\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$4\ imes 10^{14}\\sim 10^{17}\\,\ extrm{g}$$\\end{document} can emit sub-GeV electrons and positrons through Hawking radiation. Some of these particles could undergo diffusive reacceleration during propagation in the Milky Way, potentially reaching energies up to the GeV level observed by AMS-02. In this work, we utilize AMS-02 data to constrain the PBH abundance fPBH\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$f_{\ extrm{PBH}}$$\\end{document} by employing the reacceleration mechanism. Under the assumption of a monochromatic PBH mass distribution, our findings reveal that the limit is stricter than that derived from Voyager 1 data. This difference is particularly pronounced when MPBH≲1015g\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$M_{\ extrm{PBH}}\\lesssim 10^{15}\\,\ extrm{g}$$\\end{document}, exceeding an order of magnitude. The constraints are even more robust in a more realistic scenario involving a log-normal mass distribution of PBHs. Moreover, we explore the impact of varying propagation parameters and solar modulation potential within reasonable ranges, and find that such variations have minimal effects on the final results.

Analysis of the spectrum of 27-day GCR variations in 2015–2016

This work presents the results of the analysis of 27-day variations in the flux of galactic protons registered by STEREO, SOHO, and AMS-02 in 2015–2016. We calculate variations’ amplitude using several different approaches and propose a description of its energy dependence in the range of magnetic rigidity from approximately 0.3 to 100 GV. We also analyse variations of the solar modulation potential, which is the only parameter of force-field model, and consider the possibility of describing the 27-day variations of galactic cosmic rays within the framework of this model. It is shown that rigidity dependence of the 27-day variations amplitude cannot be properly described using this simple approximation.

Long-Term Variability of Summer Temperature in the Southern Part of South America—Is There a Connection with Changes in Solar Activity?

Reconstruction of the summer (December–February) temperature of the southern part of the South American continent was studied in the time interval 900–1995. Significant temporal variations with periods of ca 520 years, ca 220 years, and 90–150 years have been found. Since bicentennial and century-type climatic oscillations can be a manifestation of the respective solar cycles of Suess and Gleissberg, the correlation between the corresponding climatic and solar periodicities was investigated. Data on the concentration of cosmogenic beryllium in the ice of the South Pole, solar modulation potential, and total solar irradiance, reconstructed using cosmogenic isotopes, were used as indicators of activity of the Sun. It turned out that there was no correlation between bicentennial and century-long variations in solar activity and temperature in the southern part of the South American continent. On the other hand, a fairly significant (c.l. 0.92–0.94) correlation between the multi-centennial (periods of 393–548 years) temperature variations and solar proxies was found. Based on these results, it is difficult to draw an unambiguous conclusion about the solar forcing on the climate of South America. It is more important that the results obtained confirm the existence of natural variations in the Earth’s climate with periods close to solar cycles but independent of changes in solar activity. The presence of such periodicities can seriously complicate the identification of the solar influence on the climate, which should be taken into account in further solar-climatic studies.

Research cloud electrification model in the Wisconsin dynamic/microphysical model 2: Charge structure in an idealized thunderstorm and its dependence on ion generation rate

This paper presents a cloud electrification model, which we embedded in the Wisconsin Dynamic and Microphysical Model-2 and labels it CEMW. WISDYMM-2 makes use of two-moment cloud microphysics to produce 5 hydrometeor types (e.g., cloud-droplets, raindrops, cloud-ice, snow, and graupel) that are used by CEMW for storm electrification where storm convection is initiated by a warm air bubble that is placed over an assumed flat terrain with no surface friction. In this paper, CEMW was used to examine cloud electrification in a simulated (idealized) thundercloud and to examine the impact of various formulations of the ion generation rate by cosmic rays (G) on how the storm and individual hydrometeor charges were structured. Results showed that the CEMW generates reasonable electric charge structures, which is qualitatively similar to those published by Brothers et al. (2018) in that it consists of a number of smaller positively and negatively charged regions. This structure differs from a charge structure generally depicted by conceptual models based on conventional balloon measurements of electric field. However, simulated balloon measurements in the idealized thunder clouds further revealed that CEMW produces electrostatic charge distributions and electric field profiles that are in good agreement with those reported by real balloon measurements. How charge is structured by CEMW was tested by formulating G (the ion generation rate) in two different ways. First, we derived G assuming fair weather conditions, which is the usual way applied in cloud electrification modelling. Second, we calculated Gs using the Cosmic Ray Atmospheric Cascade: Cosmic Ray Induced Ionization model for several values of solar modulation potential and cut-off rigidity. The results show that the structure of the electric charge fields does not differ much depending on G, but the fundamental difference between G is in the amount of electric discharges.

Reconstruction of solar activity based on 14C and other isotope profiles in lunar regolith

The Moon might be considered as an integral detector of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) as it contains on its surface cosmogenic isotopes produced by nuclear reactions. Since the retrieval of lunar regolith cores by Apollo missions, there were numerous attempts to measure concentrations and depth profiles of those isotopes and reconstruct the level of cosmic radiation at 1AU at various time scales, ranging from thousands to millions of years. The data also contains encoded levels of solar activity, as the Sun affects the differential flux of GCRs in a well-known manner. All those attempts showed that our nuclear interaction codes, GEANT4 for example, need corrections to describe the lunar data, be it tweaking of cross-sections or any other methods. There are also such archives on Earth: ice cores and trees. Based on terrestrial modulation potential reconstruction we try to calibrate GEANT4 code in a transparent manner, and also present our estimates on the solar activity on time scales of 0.02 and 3 Myrs. The estimates made using our calibration procedure show values consistent with modern understanding of history of solar modulation potential, and demonstrate the necessity to establish an agreed correction method for the analysis of lunar data. We also compare our results and method with another estimation of solar modulation potential during the last 1 Myr.

Galactic Cosmic Radiation in the Interplanetary Space Through a Modern Secular Minimum

AbstractRecent solar conditions indicate a persistent decline in solar activity—possibly similar to the past solar grand minima. During such periods of low solar activity, the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) increase remarkably, presenting a hazard for long‐term crewed space missions. We used data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to examine the correlation between the heliospheric magnetic field, solar wind speed, and solar modulation potential of the GCRs through Cycle 24. We used this correlation to project observations from past secular solar minima, including the Dalton minimum (1790–1830) and the Gleissberg minimum (1890–1920), into the next cycle. For the case of conditions similar to the Dalton (or Gleissberg) minimum, the heliospheric magnetic field could drop to 3.61 (or 4.06) nT, leading to a dose rate increase of ∼75% (or 34%). We showed that accounting for a floor in the modulation potential, invoked by the Badhwar‐O'Neill 2014 model, moderates the projected radiation levels in Cycle 25. We used these results to determine the most conservative permissible mission duration (PMD, and days for 45‐year‐old male and female astronauts, respectively) based on a 3% risk of exposure‐induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval in interplanetary space.

CRaTER observations and permissible mission duration for human operations in deep space

Prolonged exposure to the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment is a potentially limiting factor for manned missions in deep space. Evaluating the risk associated with the expected GCR environment is an essential step in planning a deep space mission. This requires an understanding of how the local interstellar spectrum is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) and how observed solar activity is manifested in the HMF over time. While current GCR models agree reasonably well with measured observations of GCR flux on the first matter, they must rely on imperfect or loose correlations to describe the latter. It is more accurate to use dose rates directly measured by instruments in deep space to quantify the GCR condition for a given period of time. In this work, dose rates observed by the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument are used to obtain the local GCR intensity and composition as a function of time. A response function is constructed that relates observed dose rates to solar modulation potential using a series of Monte Carlo radiation transport calculations. The record of observed solar modulation potential vs. time is then used to calculate a recent historical record of permissible mission duration (PMD) according to NASA's permissible exposure limits (PEL). Tables are provided for extreme values of PMD. Additional tables include risk of exposure-induced death (at upper 95% confidence interval) accrual rates and NASA effective dose rates as a function of solar modulation potential, astronaut age, sex, and shielding thickness. The significance of the PMD values reported in relation to likely transit duration requirements for future exploration missions is discussed. There is general agreement between CRaTER observations and the prescription of solar modulation vs. time given by the Badhwar–O'Neill 2014 GCR model. However, CRaTER observations do capture the effects of significant heliospheric transients, among other features, that are missing from the prescription of solar modulation potential vs. time.

Investigating the dark matter signal in the cosmic ray antiproton flux with the machine learning method

We investigate the implications on the dark matter (DM) signal from the AMS-02 cosmic antiproton flux. Global fits to the data are performed under different propagation and hadronic interaction models. The uncertainties from the injection spectrum, propagation effects and solar modulation of the cosmic rays are taken into account comprehensively. Since we need to investigate extended parameter regions with multiple free parameters in the fit, the machine learning method is adopted to maintain a realistic time cost. We find all the effects considered in the fitting process interplay with each other, among which the hadronic interaction model is the most important factor affecting the result. In most hadronic interaction and CR propagation models no DM signal is found with significance larger than $2\sigma$ except that the EPOS-LHC interaction model requires a more than $3\sigma$ DM signal with DM mass around $1\,\mathrm{TeV}$. For the diffusive reacceleration propagation model there is a highly significant DM signal with mass around $100\,\mathrm{GeV}$. However, the signal becomes less than $1\sigma$ if we take a charge dependent solar modulation potential in the analysis.

Cosmic-ray transport from AMS-02 boron to carbon ratio data: Benchmark models and interpretation

This article aims at establishing new benchmark scenarios for Galactic cosmic-ray propagation in the GV-TV rigidity range, based on fits to the AMS-02 B/C data with the USINE v3.5 propagation code. We employ a new fitting procedure, cautiously taking into account data systematic error correlations in different rigidity bins and considering Solar modulation potential and leading nuclear cross-section as nuisance parameters. We delineate specific low, intermediate, and high-rigidity ranges that can be related to both features in the data and peculiar microphysics mechanisms resulting in spectral breaks. We single out a scenario which yields excellent fits to the data and includes all the presumably relevant complexity, the BIG model. This model has two limiting regimes: (i) the SLIM model, a minimal diffusion-only setup, and (ii) the QUAINT model, a convection-reacceleration model where transport is tuned by non-relativistic effects. All models lead to robust predictions in the high-energy regime ($\gtrsim10$GV), i.e. independent of the propagation scenario: at $1\sigma$, the diffusion slope $\delta$ is $[0.43-0.53]$, whereas $K_{10}$, the diffusion coefficient at 10GV, is $[0.26-0.36]$kpc$^2$Myr$^{-1}$; we confirm the robustness of the high-energy break, with a typical value $\Delta_h\sim 0.2$. We also find a hint for a similar (reversed) feature at low rigidity around the B/C peak ($\sim 4$GV) which might be related to some effective damping scale in the magnetic turbulence.

Bayesian Analysis of the Hardening in AMS-02 Nuclei Spectra

Based on the precise nuclei data released by AMS-02, we study the spectra hardening of both the primary (proton, helium, carbon, oxygen, and the primary component of nitrogen) and the secondary (anti-proton, lithium, beryllium, boron and the secondary component of nitrogen) cosmic ray (CR) nuclei. With the diffusion-reacceleration model, we consider two schemes to reproduce the hardening in the spectra: (i) A high-rigidity break in primary source injection; (ii) A high-rigidity break in diffusion coefficient. The global fitting results show that both schemes could reproduce the spectra hardening in current status. More precise multi-TV data (especially the data of secondary CR species) is needed if one wants to distinguish these two schemes. In our global fitting, each of the nuclei species is allocated an independent solar modulation potential and a re-scale factor (which accounts for the isotopic abundance for primary nuclei species and uncertainties of production cross section or inhomogeneity of CR sources and propagation for secondary nuclei species). The fitting values of these two parameter classes show us some hints on some new directions in CR physics. All the fitted re-scale factors of primary nuclei species have values that systematically smaller than 1.0, while that of secondary nuclei species are systematically larger than 1.0. Moreover, both the re-scale factor and solar modulation potential of beryllium have values which are obviously different from other species. This might indicate that beryllium has the specificity not only on its propagation in the heliosphere, but also on its production cross section. All these new results should be seriously studied in the future.

Revised historical solar irradiance forcing

Context. There is no consensus on the amplitude of historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance (TSI) difference between the Maunder minimum and the present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W m−2 making the simulation of the past and future climate uncertain. One reason for this disagreement is the applied evolution of the quiet Sun brightness in solar irradiance reconstruction models. This work addresses the role of the quiet Sun model choice and updated solar magnetic activity proxies on the solar forcing reconstruction. Aims. We aim to establish a plausible range for the solar irradiance variability on decadal to millennial timescales. Methods. The spectral solar irradiance (SSI) is calculated as a weighted sum of the contributions from sunspot umbra, sunspot penumbra, faculae, and quiet Sun, which are pre-calculated with the NLTE Spectral SYnthesis code (NESSY). We introduce activity belts of the contributions from sunspots and faculae and a new structure model for the quietest state of the Sun. We assume that the brightness of the quiet Sun varies in time proportionally to the secular (22-yr smoothed) variation of the solar modulation potential. Results. A new reconstruction of the TSI and SSI covering the period 6000 BCE - 2015 CE is presented. The model simulates solar irradiance variability during the satellite era well. The TSI change between the Maunder and recent minima ranges between 3.7 and 4.5 W m−2 depending on the applied solar modulation potential. The implementation of a new quietest Sun model reduces, by approximately a factor of two, the relative solar forcing compared to the largest previous estimation, while the application of an updated solar modulation potential increases the forcing difference between the Maunder minimum and the present by 25–40%.

Multi-centennial fluctuations of radionuclide production rates are modulated by the Earth\u2019s magnetic field

The production of cosmogenic isotopes offers a unique way to reconstruct solar activity during the Holocene. It is influenced by both the solar and Earth magnetic fields and thus their combined effect needs to be disentangled to infer past solar irradiance. Nowadays, it is assumed that the long-term variations of cosmogenic production are modulated by the geomagnetic field and that the solar field dominates over shorter wavelengths. In this process, the effects of the non-dipolar terms of the geomagnetic field are considered negligible. Here we analyse these assumptions and demonstrate that, for a constant solar modulation potential, the geomagnetic field exerts a strong modulation of multi-centennial to millennial wavelengths (periods of 800 and 2200 yr). Moreover, we demonstrate that the non-dipole terms derived from the harmonic degree 3 and above produce maximum differences of 7% in the global average radiocarbon production rate. The results are supported by the identification, for the first time, of a robust coherence between the production rates independently estimated from geomagnetic reconstructions and that inferred from natural archives. This implies the need to review past solar forcing reconstructions, with important implications both for the assessment of solar-climate relationships as well as for the present and future generation of paleoclimate models.

Solar Activity during the Maunder Minimum: Comparison with the Dalton Minimum

The solar modulation potential has been reconstructed from data on the 10Be concentration in south and central Greenland ice over more than 500 last years. These two reconstructions, along with fourteen others obtained by various authors from data on the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be, have been investigated in the time interval 1630–1840 encompassing the Maunder and Dalton minima. The information contained in these sixteen paleoreconstructions has been generalized. The available data on the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes in terrestrial archives suggest that the solar activity in the first part of theMaunder minimum (1645–1680) was lower than that at the Dalton minimum (1792–1827), while in the second part (1680–1715) it was considerably lower. At the same time, at the beginning of theMaunder minimum (1645–1660) the solar activity could reach levels exceeding noticeably the estimates based on telescopic observations. Possible causes of these discrepancies and the directions of further research are discussed.

A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales

Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm and ϕm.

Galactic cosmic-ray propagation in the light of AMS-02: Analysis of protons, helium, and antiprotons

We present novel constraints on cosmic-ray propagation in the Galaxy using the recent precise measurements of proton and helium spectra from AMS-02, together with preliminary AMS-02 data on the antiproton over proton ratio. To explore efficiently the large (up to eleven-dimensional) parameter space we employ the nested-sampling algorithm as implemented in the \textsc{MultiNest} package, interfaced with the \textsc{Galprop} code to compute the model-predicted spectra. We use VOYAGER proton and helium data, sampling the local inter-stellar spectra, to constrain the solar modulation potential. We find that the turbulence of the Galactic magnetic field is well constrained, i.e., $\delta=0.30^{+0.03}_{-0.02}(stat)^{+0.10}_{-0.04}(sys)$, with uncertainties dominated by systematic effects. Systematic uncertainties are determined checking the robustness of the results to the minimum rigidity cut used to fit the data (from 1 GV to 5 GV), to the propagation scenario (convection vs no-convection), and to the uncertainties in the knowledge of the antiproton production cross section. Convection and reaccelaration are found to be degenerate and not well-constrained singularly when using data above 5 GV. Using data above 1 GV reacceleration is required, $v_{\rm A}=25\pm2$km/s, although this value might be significantly affected by the low energy systematic uncertainty in the solar modulation. In a forthcoming companion paper, we investigate the constraints imposed by AMS-02 measurements on lithium, boron, and carbon.

Modeling of ground albedo neutrons to investigate seasonal cosmic ray‐induced neutron variations measured at high‐altitude stations

AbstractThis paper investigates seasonal cosmic ray‐induced neutron variations measured over a long‐term period (from 2011 to 2016) in both the high‐altitude stations located in medium geomagnetic latitude and Antarctica (Pic‐du‐Midi and Concordia, respectively). To reinforce analysis, modeling based on ground albedo neutrons simulations of extensive air showers and the solar modulation potential was performed. Because the local environment is well known and stable over time in Antarctica, data were used to validate the modeling approach. A modeled scene representative to the Pic‐du‐Midi was simulated with GEANT4 for various hydrogen properties (composition, density, and wet level) and snow thickness. The orders of magnitudes of calculated thermal fluence rates are consistent with measurements obtained during summers and winters. These variations are dominant in the thermal domain (i.e., En < 0.5 eV) and lesser degree in epithermal and evaporation domains (i.e., 0.5 eV < En < 0.1 MeV and 0.1 MeV < En < 20 MeV, respectively). Cascade neutron (En > 20 MeV) is weakly impacted. The role of hydrogen content on ground albedo neutron generation was investigated with GEANT4 simulations. These investigations focused to mountain environment; nevertheless, they demonstrate the complexity of the local influences on neutron fluence rates.

Analyses of cosmic ray induced-neutron based on spectrometers operated simultaneously at mid-latitude and Antarctica high-altitude stations during quiet solar activity

In this paper are described a new neutron spectrometer which operate in the Concordia station (Antarctica, Dome C) since December 2015. This instrument complements a network including neutron spectrometers operating in the Pic-du-Midi and the Pico dos Dias. Thus, this work present an analysis of cosmic ray induced-neutron based on spectrometers operated simultaneously in the Pic-du-Midi and the Concordia stations during a quiet solar activity. The both high station platforms allow for investigating the long period dynamics to analyze the spectral variation and effects of local and seasonal changes, but also the short term dynamics during solar flare events. A first part is devoted to analyze the count rates, the spectrum and the neutron fluxes, implying cross-comparisons between data obtained in the both stations. In a second part, measurements analyses were reinforced by modeling based on simulations of atmospheric cascades according to primary spectra which only depend on the solar modulation potential.

Global water cycle and solar activity variations

The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983–2008. The first object of this study was to calculate global evaporation for the period 1983–2008. For this purpose, we determined the water cycle rate from satellite data, and precipitation/evaporation relationship from 10 years of Planet Simulator model data. The second object of our study was to investigate the relationship between the Solar Modulation Potential (solar activity index) and the evaporation for the period 1983–2008. The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and the evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.