Solar-induced Changes Research Articles

Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing

Abstract. The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates using specially designed sensitivity simulations with the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol model) chemistry–climate model. We perform a number of idealised time-slice experiments under perpetual solar maximum (SMAX) and minimum conditions (SMIN), and we find that contributions from changes in direct heating and photolysis rates are both important for determining the stratospheric shortwave heating, temperature and ozone responses to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle. The combined effects of the processes are found to be largely additive in the tropics but nonadditive in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results indicate that, in contrast to the original mechanism proposed in the literature, the solar-induced changes in the horizontal shortwave heating rate gradients not only in autumn/early winter but throughout the dynamically active season are important for modulating the dynamical response to changes in solar forcing. In spring, these gradients are strongly influenced by the shortwave heating anomalies at higher southern latitudes, which are closely linked to the concurrent changes in ozone. In addition, our simulations indicate differences in the winter SH dynamical responses between the experiments. We suggest a couple of potential drivers of the simulated differences, i.e. the role of enhanced zonally asymmetric ozone heating brought about by the increased solar-induced ozone levels under SMAX and/or sensitivity of the polar dynamical response to the altitude of the anomalous radiative tendencies. All in all, our results suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone, both in the tropics/mid-latitudes and the polar regions, are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle. In addition, the markedly nonadditive character of the SH polar vortex response simulated in austral spring highlights the need for consistent model implementation of the solar cycle forcing in both the radiative heating and photolysis schemes.

Changes in the activity of Jupiter’s hemispheres

Solar-induced changes in the reflective properties of the visible disk of Jupiter mostly depend on variations in the Earth’s jovimagnetic latitude. Since the orbit of Jupiter is eccentric (the eccentricity is e = 0.04845) and the planet passes perihelion at the time close to the summer solstice, the atmosphere receives 21% more solar energy in the northern hemisphere than in the southern one. According to the results of our studies, the ratio of the brightness values for the northern and southern tropical and temperate zones is a clear indicator of photometric activity of the processes in the atmosphere of Jupiter. From the analysis of the observational data for the period from 1962 to 2017, the cyclicity in changes of the activity factor of the hemispheres of the planet with a period of 11.87 years was found. This suggests that the atmosphere of Jupiter experiences seasonal restructuring.

Stratospheric Response to the 11-Yr Solar Cycle: Breaking Planetary Waves, Internal Reflection, and Resonance

Abstract Breaking planetary waves (BPWs) affect stratospheric dynamics by reshaping the waveguides, causing internal wave reflection, and preconditioning sudden stratospheric warmings. This study examines observed changes in BPWs during the northern winter resulting from enhanced solar forcing and the consequent effect on the seasonal development of the polar vortex. During the period 1979–2014, solar-induced changes in BPWs were first observed in the uppermost stratosphere. High solar forcing was marked by sharpening of the potential vorticity (PV) gradient at 30°–45°N, enhanced wave absorption at high latitudes, and a reduced PV gradient between these regions. These anomalies instigated an equatorward shift of the upper-stratospheric waveguide and enhanced downward wave reflection at high latitudes. The equatorward refraction of reflected waves from the polar upper stratosphere then led to enhanced wave absorption at 35°–45°N and 7–20 hPa, indicative of a widening of the midstratospheric surf zone. The stratospheric waveguide was thus constricted at about 45°–60°N and 5–10 hPa in early boreal winter; reduced upward wave propagation through this region resulted in a stronger upper-stratospheric westerly jet. From January, the regions with enhanced BPWs acted as “barriers” for subsequent upward and equatorward wave propagation. As the waves were trapped within the stratosphere, anomalies of zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 were reflected poleward from the stratospheric surf zone. Resonant excitation of some of these reflected waves resulted in rapid growth of wave disturbances and a more disturbed polar vortex in late winter. These results provide a process-oriented explanation for the observed solar cycle signal. They also highlight the importance of nonlinearity in the processes that drive the stratospheric response to external forcing.

Hydrological and climatological controls on radiocarbon concentrations in a tropical stalagmite

Precisely-dated stalagmites are increasingly important archives for the reconstruction of terrestrial paleoclimate at very high temporal resolution. In-depth understanding of local conditions at the cave site and of the processes driving stalagmite deposition is of paramount importance for interpreting proxy signals incorporated in stalagmite carbonate. Here we present a sub-decadally resolved dead carbon fraction (DCF) record for a stalagmite from Yok Balum Cave (southern Belize). The record is coupled to parallel stable carbon isotope (δ13C) and U/Ca measurements, as well as radiocarbon (14C) measurements from soils overlying the cave system. Using a karst carbon cycle model we disentangle the importance of soil and karst processes on stalagmite DCF incorporation, revealing a dominant host rock dissolution control on total DCF. Covariation between DCF, δ13C, and U/Ca indicates that karst processes are a common driver of all three parameters, suggesting possible use of δ13C and trace element ratios to independently quantify DCF variability. A statistically significant multi-decadal lag of variable length exists between DCF and reconstructed solar activity, suggesting that solar activity influenced regional precipitation in Mesoamerica over the past 1500years, but that the relationship was non-static. Although the precise nature of the observed lag is unclear, solar-induced changes in North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may play a role.

Effects on stratospheric moistening by rates of change of aerosol optical depth and ozone due to solar activity in extra-tropics

The solar-induced changes in ozone and aerosol optical depth have relative effects on stratospheric moistening at upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. Wavelet-based multi-scale principal component analysis technique has been applied to de-noise component of quasi-biennial oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation from ozone and aerosol optical depth variations. Rate of change of aerosol optical depth sharply increases indicating a positive gradient whereas rate of change of ozone sharply decreases indicating a negative gradient with solar activity during the years 2004–2010. It is also observed that with increase of rate of change of aerosol optical depth, there is a sharp increase of stratospheric moistening caused by enhanced deep convection. On the contrary, with the increase of stratospheric moistening, there is a sharp decrease of rate of change of ozone resulting in a cross-over between the two parameters. An increase in aerosol optical depth may cause a significant increase in the gradient of vertical temperature profile, as well as formation of cloud condensation nuclei, clouds and hence rainfall. This may lead to formation of strong convective system in the atmosphere that is essential for vertical transfer of water vapour in the tropics percolating tropical tropopause layer and depleting stratospheric ozone in the extra-tropics.

Solar cycle modulation of the Pacific–North American teleconnection influence on North American winter climate

We investigate the role of the 11-year solar cycle in modulating the Pacific–North American (PNA) influence on North American winter climate. The PNA appears to play an important conduit between solar forcing and surface climate. The low solar (LS) activity may induce an atmospheric circulation pattern that resembles the positive phase of the PNA, resulting in a significant warming over northwestern North America and significant dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies and the Ohio-Tennessee-lower Mississippi River Valley. The solar-induced changes in surface climate share more than 67% and 14% of spatial variances in the PNA-induced temperature and precipitation changes for 1950–2010 and 1901–2010 periods, respectively. These distinct solar signatures in North American climate may contribute to deconvolving modern and past continental-scale climate changes and improve our ability to interpret paleoclimate records in the region.

On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

Abstract. The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH]) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH) temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]). The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3–4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31–35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Solar magnetic flux influences on the dynamics of the winter middle atmosphere

A number of observational studies have reported a connection between various lower atmospheric parameters and a range of geomagnetic and solar coronal indices. The bulk of the Sun's magnetised plasma energy is absorbed in the high‐latitude upper atmosphere, far removed from the troposphere and the stratosphere, so a physical mechanism which accounts for these correlations has proved elusive. In this paper, a mechanistic three‐dimensional model of the atmosphere between 10 and 130 km has been developed to demonstrate that high energy particles from the solar wind can perturb the winter stratosphere significantly. Planetary waves provide an effective means of coupling solar‐induced changes in the thermosphere down to the stratosphere. A qualitatively similar response to forcing by increasing solar ultraviolet radiation was obtained even though there was no in situ forcing in the stratosphere.

The dynamical response of the lower atmosphere to upper atmosphere forcing and the sun-weather problem

A time-dependent, primitive-equation numerical model is used to test the hypothesis that solar variations induce changes in the distributions of basic state variables at high levels in the atmosphere, and thus induce changes in planetary-scale wave structure at lower atmospheric levels. This mechanism was proposed to explain apparent atmospheric responses to solar activity. The changes are brought about in the model by a diabatic heat source, which is taken to be a simple representation of Joule dissipative heating. Lower atmospheric wave structure is found to be insensitive to solar-induced changes in the upper atmosphere. Such changes as do occur are limited to within 25 to 40 km below the level of maximum heating, and are also quite short-lived.